CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[GraemeCook]

Have just been reading about the disruptive effects of the CoranaVirus in China. Over 2,000 diagnosed deaths, and the government is almost closing down the economy to fight the epidemic. All factories within 200 kms of Wuhan have been closed, many factories outside that area have chosen to close, public transport severely restricted, people who went back to the village for New Year cannot return to work, exports essentially banned, .... The list is long.

With JIT (Just In Time) warehousing practices being the norm, what will be the effect on Western retailers? Will we be greeted by emptying shelves when we walk into Bunnings, Mitre10, Carbatec, Myer, Harvey Norman, K-Mart, Repco, etc? They all source most of their stock from China and the supply line has stopped.

Graeme

[RossM]

Most goods come via bluewater freight - 3 - 4 weeks. So therewould have been goods in transit. I suspect we may start to see some shortages in some areas over the next few weeks. I see recent reports that shipyards throughout China have been impacted, so its not just manufacturing.

I suspect that retailers will be scrambling to find alternate sources of supply - Thailand, Phillipines, Cambodia, Bangladesh have opportunity to fill gaps. It may not be as noticeable in the chain stores as they can substitute products. However if your looking for specific items then I think it may become noticeable over the next month or two.

[PJM16]

My parents have already been affected. Tried to have a replacement air conditioner ordered for their caravan and no go. No indication of when it'll be available either.

[BobL]

Our solar PV installer said they aleady don't have supplies of some panels and he he only can get supplies of others for another couple of weeks worth of installs. Then he can take a much needed holiday and then he's in trouble. But tourism is already badly affected. OTOH more cruise ships are now headed to WA so that will help a bit.

[Handyjack]

Yellow Octopus expects supply problems in a couple of months.
One furniture retailer is looking to Vietnam.

Unfortunately Australia does not have the manufacturing industry it once had.

[PJM16]

I think it shows where the problem is with globalisation.

[thumbsucker]

A company I order Jewellery tools for school cannot fill my full order at this time saying that stuff is not being shipped or is stuck in customs due to the virus.

Globalisation has been with us for thousands of years with specific international trade relationships going back 5000 plus years.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/ff/Periplous_of_the_Erythraean_Sea.svg

Thomas the Apostle was sent to India at the death of Jesus to minster and convert a Jewish community in Goa India 2000 years ago. The Jewish community existed as part of a global trade arrangements between India, China and the Middle East with arrangements with Southern European merchants AKA globalisation. The apocryphal accounts of Thomas and his relationship to Jesus has an even more amazing account of why he ended up in India.

Look at all the Jewish, Chinese & Indian diaspora's around the world communities that go back thousands of years again because globalisation. They are all products of the evolution of globalisation over time.

In the Prophetic Sayings of the Prophet of Islam (Muhammad) Peace be upon him says "Seek knowledge even as far as China". Muhammad was a skilled trader from a powerful trading family from Mecca, he travelled to Jerusalem and Damascus, and would have had direct contact with traders bringing goods out of China. This is why vast areas of China have Muslims who travelled for trade and knowledge to China over 1200 years ago, This is why Indonesia is a Muslim majority country with Christian and Hindus communities again all because of globalisation.

My own blood comes from Globalisation. In 1652 the Dutch East India Company established a settlements at the Cape of Good Hope (South Africa). Some of my ancestors were early Dutch traders to the Cape. Then I have English ancestors from London (Southbanks) and German ancestors who came to South African in the 18th/19th century. Other parts of my ancestors came from Dutch Malacca controlled by the Dutch East India Company between 1641 to 1824 (Modern Malaysia) settling in the Cape and in time became the Cape Malay Muslim community. Then their is my Bantu ancestors who are part of greatest migration in history spanning 4,000 to 3,000 years ago starting in West/Central Africa (the area of modern-day Cameroon). All of this is just from my mothers side that I have been able to reconstruct. All of these people moved willing or otherwise due to globalisation. In appearance I am a Cape Coloured a product of globalisation. I like to think that a person like me haunts Donald Trumps nightmares.

On my father Swiss German side our family name is rooted in international military campaigns (Reisläufer). Were the Swiss would sell their skills as mercenaries to the different European powers (starting in the Late Middle Ages) all in the quest for profit, power and money all over the world. There is a memorial in Central Africa dedicated to war crimes committed by Swiss mercenaries. I laugh when people stereotype Swiss as neutral chocolate eating clock makers. We are a violent people and our hands are soaked in blood thanks to globalisation. I would not have it any other way.

Look at the history of Australia, at no point in its history was Australia ever self sufficient. Going back thousands of years Aborigines traded with Indonesians, who then told European merchants (who were trading, buying & selling thanks to globalisation in South East Asia) of a Southern Land that eventually lead to Captain Cook. That made Australia dependent on UK and Europe and today globalisation means we are closer to Asia, and yes we need them and guess what they need us.

People who wish to end globalisation would regret it if they ever had to live a single minute in an de-globalised world. Look around you, open your eyes to everything that surrounds you everything exists because of globalisation. There are always winners and losers and the anti-globalisation rabble are just whingeing because do not like the fact that their mob is currently loosing in the game of globalisation. Without globalisation they would be sitting on a mud floor and not even being able to cover their shame with a rag.

[crowie]

Apologies Graeme...
BUT the Aussie wit or black humour has also struct on this awful issue...

469010 469011

[BobL]

I agree, it's a bit too easy to blame "globalisation" , including by many that willing take advantage of it.
Perhaps the underlying cause is "greed"? or another way to look at it is, "looking for a good deal" or "a way to cut costs".

[GraemeCook]

I think it shows where the problem is with globalisation.


I thought the problem was the reverse of globalisation - China-isation, if you will - or the absense of diversity in the source of supply. Rarely a good idea to put all your eggs in one basket!

[BobL]

I thought the problem was the reverse of globalisation - China-isation, if you will - or the absense of diversity in the source of supply. Rarely a good idea to put all your eggs in one basket!

I agree about the eggs in one basket.

Globalisation is sourcing out to the cheapest producer/supplier of eg clothing, energy, construction, food, services, IT, motor vehicles, movies, music, financial services, health, electronics, mining etc. The fact that for many of these it turns out to be China is the way is just how its worked out.

There's "cost" and then there's "quality", (or at least perceived quality) eg they definitely want our milk powder, education experience, and crayfish

[elanjacobs]

Unfortunately Australia does not have the manufacturing industry it once had.
Because we have a small population, relatively isolated from the rest of the world (and ourselves, given the distances between population centres), with a high cost of living and high wages.

Mass production and low-value production in this country are gone and they're not coming back. It's time we all come to peace with that.

[BobL]

Reuter’s reported just now that major Chinese shipping companies are starting shipping later next week or early the week after so you shouldn’t have to wait for your widgets much longer :)

[Glider]

Because we have a small population, relatively isolated from the rest of the world (and ourselves, given the distances between population centres), with a high cost of living and high wages.

Mass production and low-value production in this country are gone and they're not coming back. It's time we all come to peace with that.

I don't think we ever had low value production in a broad spectrum. Protective tariffs of 40% were quite common when I left the lab in the early 70s. Products and industries with low physical volume and labour content and particularly those with unique technology survived. Ross Garnaut is quite right in saying that we CAN regain our competitive edge if we harness cheap power in all its forms. To do so, we'll need it nationalised which the neo-conservative will never allow.

mick

[elanjacobs]

Power could be free and we still won't be competitive when production workers here are earning in a few hours what their Asian counterparts make in a week.

[Glider]

Power could be free and we still won't be competitive when production workers here are earning in a few hours what their Asian counterparts make in a week.

It's not as simple as that, Elan. It's about the ratio between the labour input and the value of goods produced.

BTW, I apologise for straying off topic. I don't recall the same degree of disruption during the SARS epidemic. I received a blade guard from Banggood yesterday which took about three weeks to arrive.

mick

[BobL]

Power could be free and we still won't be competitive when production workers here are earning in a few hours what their Asian counterparts make in a week.

Interesting to see that many Chinese production workers are deemed too expensive (more like don't make the manufacturers enough profit) so they are no being outsourced to places like Vietnam and Bangladesh.

[BoneInspector]

SARS looks to be small time compared to this one.

[44Ronin]

A company I order Jewellery tools for school cannot fill my full order at this time saying that stuff is not being shipped or is stuck in customs due to the virus.

Globalisation has been with us for thousands of years with specific international trade relationships going back 5000 plus years.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/ff/Periplous_of_the_Erythraean_Sea.svg

Thomas the Apostle was sent to India at the death of Jesus to minster and convert a Jewish community in Goa India 2000 years ago. The Jewish community existed as part of a global trade arrangements between India, China and the Middle East with arrangements with Southern European merchants AKA globalisation. The apocryphal accounts of Thomas and his relationship to Jesus has an even more amazing account of why he ended up in India.

Look at all the Jewish, Chinese & Indian diaspora's around the world communities that go back thousands of years again because globalisation. They are all products of the evolution of globalisation over time.

In the Prophetic Sayings of the Prophet of Islam (Muhammad) Peace be upon him says "Seek knowledge even as far as China". Muhammad was a skilled trader from a powerful trading family from Mecca, he travelled to Jerusalem and Damascus, and would have had direct contact with traders bringing goods out of China. This is why vast areas of China have Muslims who travelled for trade and knowledge to China over 1200 years ago, This is why Indonesia is a Muslim majority country with Christian and Hindus communities again all because of globalisation.

My own blood comes from Globalisation. In 1652 the Dutch East India Company established a settlements at the Cape of Good Hope (South Africa). Some of my ancestors were early Dutch traders to the Cape. Then I have English ancestors from London (Southbanks) and German ancestors who came to South African in the 18th/19th century. Other parts of my ancestors came from Dutch Malacca controlled by the Dutch East India Company between 1641 to 1824 (Modern Malaysia) settling in the Cape and in time became the Cape Malay Muslim community. Then their is my Bantu ancestors who are part of greatest migration in history spanning 4,000 to 3,000 years ago starting in West/Central Africa (the area of modern-day Cameroon). All of this is just from my mothers side that I have been able to reconstruct. All of these people moved willing or otherwise due to globalisation. In appearance I am a Cape Coloured a product of globalisation. I like to think that a person like me haunts Donald Trumps nightmares.

On my father Swiss German side our family name is rooted in international military campaigns (Reisläufer). Were the Swiss would sell their skills as mercenaries to the different European powers (starting in the Late Middle Ages) all in the quest for profit, power and money all over the world. There is a memorial in Central Africa dedicated to war crimes committed by Swiss mercenaries. I laugh when people stereotype Swiss as neutral chocolate eating clock makers. We are a violent people and our hands are soaked in blood thanks to globalisation. I would not have it any other way.

Look at the history of Australia, at no point in its history was Australia ever self sufficient. Going back thousands of years Aborigines traded with Indonesians, who then told European merchants (who were trading, buying & selling thanks to globalisation in South East Asia) of a Southern Land that eventually lead to Captain Cook. That made Australia dependent on UK and Europe and today globalisation means we are closer to Asia, and yes we need them and guess what they need us.

People who wish to end globalisation would regret it if they ever had to live a single minute in an de-globalised world. Look around you, open your eyes to everything that surrounds you everything exists because of globalisation. There are always winners and losers and the anti-globalisation rabble are just whingeing because do not like the fact that their mob is currently loosing in the game of globalisation. Without globalisation they would be sitting on a mud floor and not even being able to cover their shame with a rag.

Zero nuance strawman argument reducing the issue to a binary proposition containing context-free and rather irrelevant ethno-cultural trivia, finalised with a rather inane ad-hominem.

[Mobyturns]

Interesting to see that many Chinese production workers are deemed too expensive (more like don't make the manufacturers enough profit) so they are no being outsourced to places like Vietnam and Bangladesh.

That's what happens when the supply vs demand effects labour inputs particularly for skilled "middle income earners", wages rise, the standard of living improves, new consumer markets emerge and global corporates look for new "low cost" manufacturing opportunities.

This also occurs in the "services sector" as we have very recently seen with the demise of Holden with an Australian based very skilled workforce of designers, technical specialists, robotics & automotive engineers etc - no longer required. Then there is the ceasing of production in Thailand, the knock on effect to suppliers, and the full flow on effect into the wider community of non-automotive related services sectors, retail, groceries etc.

"Globalized" sourcing & manufacturing is wise IF it does not become "centralized" anywhere along the entire supply chain, including customs, quarantine, shipping into and out of all sectors in the chain.

What will happen IF a similar event to SARS or COVID-19 occurs in a centralized facility with Amazon, Bangood etc???

[Glider]

What will happen IF a similar event to SARS or COVID-19 occurs in a centralized facility with Amazon, Bangood etc???

We might have to visit the local hardware shop, lol.

Events like the GFC and COVID-19 remind us all of how vulnerable we are in our turbocharged world. In 1859 there was an enormous solar storm (the Carrington Event) which allowed Morse code signals to be sent along unpowered transmission lines. If the same happened today, we'd lose GPS, radio coms, the power network and goodness know what else. Civilisation would come to a standstill, possibly for months or years.

Hopefully COVID-19 won't be catastrophic.

mick

[Wongdai]

Spare a thought for the families of and those who have died and are dying from this terrible virus, rather than complaining about our shelves being potentially empty.

[ian]

just a minor observation ...

around 30 years ago, I sat through a series of lectures by a labour economist.
The gist of their position was that eventually all labour that could be shifted to a low wage country would be so shifted. Services like hair dressing, household cleaning, electricians, plumbers, etc would retain their pricing power because you can't send to Singapore when you need an electrician or a plumber or your hair cut, but you can relocate to Thailand for your dental and elective surgery.

Ultimately Australia will be left with only highly skilled labour and the unskilled moveable jobs will vanish or be recompensed at below the poverty level.
a very depressing thought.

[ian]

Spare a thought for the families of and those who have died and are dying from this terrible virus, rather than complaining about our shelves being potentially empty.
I can spare a thought -- but, realistically, coronavirus is not a "terrible disease", it's not even a "serious" one.

Influenza kills 12,000 to 60,000 people annually -- from 140,000 to 810,000 annual hospitalisations annually
The CDC's latest bulletin for the US is here Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) -- the flu death rate is 6.8%

For comparison, the death rate for the coronavirus is only 4.9% within Wuhan -- and 2.1% across China as a whole.

In May 2003, The World Health Organization (WHO) estimated the overall fatality rate for SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) patients at 14% to 15%. The agency estimated the rate for people older than 64 years to be more than 50%

So while not a small number, coronavirus is, to date, killing people at a rate that is only a fraction of the effect of SARS.

[MrSlow]

Reuter’s reported just now that major Chinese shipping companies are starting shipping later next week or early the week after so you shouldn’t have to wait for your widgets much longer :)


Hope they are correct Bob as we won't survive a supply side shock.

[Glider]

I can spare a thought -- but, realistically, coronavirus is not a "terrible disease", it's not even a "serious" one.

Influenza kills 12,000 to 60,000 people annually -- from 140,000 to 810,000 annual hospitalisations annually
The CDC's latest bulletin for the US is here Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) -- the flu death rate is 6.8%

For comparison, the death rate for the coronavirus is only 4.9% within Wuhan -- and 2.1% across China as a whole.

In May 2003, The World Health Organization (WHO) estimated the overall fatality rate for SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) patients at 14% to 15%. The agency estimated the rate for people older than 64 years to be more than 50%

So while not a small number, coronavirus is, to date, killing people at a rate that is only a fraction of the effect of SARS.

I understand the problem with Coronavirus is that it's not only highly infectious but like all viruses. it may mutate into something far worse.

Last year my G.P. offered me a pneumonia shot in addition to my flu shot. Sure, why not? I said without thinking. Walking home I started thinking that I might prefer influenza in the form of the old person's friend sometime in the next twenty years. Maybe I should've refused.

mick

[ian]

Last year my G.P. offered me a pneumonia shot in addition to my flu shot. Sure, why not? I said without thinking. Walking home I started thinking that I might prefer influenza in the form of the old person's friend sometime in the next twenty years. Maybe I should've refused.Mick
at 71 your life expectancy is roughly 19 years.
You could drop dead tomorrow, you could live to 105.

The question really is at what point in your life do you want to welcome in the "old person's friend"?

[Beardy]

Power could be free and we still won't be competitive when production workers here are earning in a few hours what their Asian counterparts make in a week.

I am currently in Vietnam and went out to dinner last night with my wife
We had 2 beers, 2 wines, entrees, mains and dessert and it cost me $29.57 ...... you can’t even buy the drinks in Australia for that
I am told that wages here are around $150.00 a month.
I cant see how Australia will ever compete unless it is being dug out of the ground or it is brought here to get buried

[Simplicity]

I received this email this morning regarding a tool I’ve ordered from a Chinese supplier,
I thought the wording was a bit off.

“Dear ,


Thank you very much for your order from Banggood.com.

Due to the adjustment of the Spring Festival holiday, some of our logistics company partners are still in holiday, we are already processing all the orders and will ship it out once they resume to work, your order will expect to be shipped within 2 weeks. Thanks for your patiently waiting. We apologize for any inconvenience caused.”

Cheers Matt.

[woodPixel]

Simplicity - Happy Holidays indeed!

I know two people near Wuhan. They've been in their units for 4 weeks now. They are going up the wall. They were told this morning "April".... :oo:

Next, a guy I talk with infrequently in Shenzhen has 600 people there. Just reopened. Closed Today - sick people again. Four more weeks.

Another dude I chat with is in "shipping" (he seems knowledgeable)... said anything leaving Shenzhen is only 10% full. Containers are piling up like crazy. There is talk of heaving them off the boats into the sea (!!!) or charging people sending crates back to China empty a "handling fee" of $1200.

Treat these as anecdotal and hearsay, for its just talk, but I've no reason to expect these people to BS.


Ian - here is a decent video describing the whole China --> Vietnam manufacturing thing (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLJSYmJBhus). I've been watching these two dudes for a while.


Overall, you probably all know that I'm a hair-triggered market-collapse doom-enthusiast and I have to admit I've been watching this since the beginning of January with an incredibly increasing rate of alarm.

Ian, yes, the flu is bad, but the numbers we are seeing aren't....true. It is worse. Much worse. Now that its spread out of China - such as to South Korea, we are getting an appreciation of just how bad it is. The numbers from SK and the Diamond Princess are far more reflective of the "reality" Ive been told (by Chinese on Telegram and Reddit)....

I feel... without being alarmist, that this will be Bad.

EDIT: These videos by Dr John Campell (https://www.youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching/videos)are 10000% worth your time to watch.

EDIT 2: This is the shipping info I was pointed to. China's reefer cargo crisis worsens as carriers plan to abandon boxes - The Loadstar (https://theloadstar.com/chinas-reefer-cargo-crisis-worsens-as-carriers-plan-to-abandon-boxes/)

More - and this is the shipping view of 165,000 ships! Look at them piled up at EVERY chinese port! Click on the ships and they are either stationary or just moving in circles for the last week... China's reefer cargo crisis worsens as carriers plan to abandon boxes - The Loadstar (https://theloadstar.com/chinas-reefer-cargo-crisis-worsens-as-carriers-plan-to-abandon-boxes/)

[Simplicity]

Simplicity - Happy Holidays indeed!

I know two people near Wuhan. They've been in their units for 4 weeks now. They are going up the wall. They were told this morning "April".... :oo:

Next, a guy I talk with infrequently in Shenzhen has 600 people there. Just reopened. Closed Today - sick people again. Four more weeks.

Another dude I chat with is in "shipping" (he seems knowledgeable)... said anything leaving Shenzhen is only 10% full. Containers are piling up like crazy. There is talk of heaving them off the boats into the sea (!!!) or charging people sending crates back to China empty a "handling fee" of $1200.

Treat these as anecdotal and hearsay, for its just talk, but I've no reason to expect these people to BS.


Ian - here is a decent video describing the whole China --> Vietnam manufacturing thing (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLJSYmJBhus). I've been watching these two dudes for a while.


Overall, you probably all know that I'm a hair-triggered market-collapse doom-enthusiast and I have to admit I've been watching this since the beginning of January with an incredibly increasing rate of alarm.

Ian, yes, the flu is bad, but the numbers we are seeing aren't....true. It is worse. Much worse. Now that its spread out of China - such as to South Korea, we are getting an appreciation of just how bad it is. The numbers from SK and the Diamond Princess are far more reflective of the "reality" Ive been told (by Chinese on Telegram and Reddit)....

I feel... without being alarmist, that this will be Bad.

It’s the saving face thing that gets my goat,
We all know what’s happening
I just don’t get why they keep pretending they can cover it up!!!

Cheers Matt

[woodPixel]

It’s the saving face thing that gets my goat,
We all know what’s happening
I just don’t get why they keep pretending they can cover it up!!!

This is interesting in itself.

The grunts on the ground know NOTHING.

Here are some of the things I've been told constantly and consistently by various people within China:

-- It is much worse in the USA. People are dying of the flu in vast numbers
-- The USA government is doing "nothing" to help their people
-- The CCP has this all in hand. They are reacting while the world does nothing (nice spin there CCP!)
-- They are being told it is only their region (no matter the region)
-- DON'T go to hospital. They can't help (some truth to that. They are overwhelmed)
-- If you need help, no matter what it is thats needed, one is to ring the police (I dont know the translation for this, but I think its some sort of community support group with some sort of authority. They aren't the police as we know them)
-- Each person, or factory owner (that Ive read of) has NO idea when they can reopen. IF they do, its a massive bureaucratic process, with arbitrary processes and from what Ive read they can be re-closed down at a moments notice.
-- Apparently only factories with "dorm" facilities are allowed to open. (???? Do they sleep at work, like some sort of FIFO thing?)

So, believe your seller. They've no idea and only doing what they can. From what I've seen its a complete sheit-show and the wheels have completely fallen off.

The downchain ramifications of these things is almost endless.

eeek!

[ian]

-- Apparently only factories with "dorm" facilities are allowed to open. (???? Do they sleep at work, like some sort of FIFO thing?)
doom and gloom specialist ???

and yes, from what I understand lots of Chinese workers sleep in the factory dorm. They then travel back to their home village once or twice each year.

[Glider]

If half of what's been posted here is true, I might have to go bush and start reading the Green Woodworking section.

mick :)

[BobL]

Beyond Tools In Malaga in Perth's northern suburbs mention machinery availability problems here

Coronavirus disruption hits store shelves as Australian retailers face 'serious pinch' from COVID-19 outbreak - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-25/coronavirus-impact-hits-retail-as-businesses-face-serious-pinch/11996316)

[Simplicity]

Beyond Tools In Malaga in Perth's northern suburbs mention machinery availability problems here

Coronavirus disruption hits store shelves as Australian retailers face 'serious pinch' from COVID-19 outbreak - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-25/coronavirus-impact-hits-retail-as-businesses-face-serious-pinch/11996316)



I didn’t read the whole article !!

But it just shows the stupidity of relying on mainly one country for supply.
All your eggs in one basket.

From a business point of view it’s madness.

Cheers Matt

[BobL]

There’s another way of thinking about it in that maybe if more customers didn’t just always buy the cheapest gizmo/appliance/tool we’d have a greater selection from a wider variety of sources?

[woodPixel]

Even if this thing is as "bad" as said, on the scale of things, its not too bad.

Many of the people here would remember that smallpox (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox), TB (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuberculosis) and polio (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio) were a real thing in every day life.

The viciousness of these diseases, plus their spreads, were subjectively much much worse. Worse, because all three existed at the same time, treatment was medieval and money scarce.

Keep your tools sharp friends, just in case we get 4 or 8 weeks enforced inside-time. Oh noes!!!!! What will we do!!!!!???? (bowls, pens, boxes, boards, all those honey-dos, that kumiko project... new shelves, fix the leaking taps... oh gods! Nooooooo!!!!!!)


Edit. This was on the ABC news' website. It puts things into perspective.

469131

[BobL]

I read your post out to SWMBO and she’s nodding her head.

[Beardy]

There’s another way of thinking about it in that maybe if more customers didn’t just always buy the cheapest gizmo/appliance/tool we’d have a greater selection from a wider variety of sources?

Hit the nail in the head Bob.
People often complain but the reality is business is selling what the consumer wants to buy. We have all seen the demise of companies that have not followed that pattern

[Wongo]

I listen to the press briefings on the WHO website every day when it is available. It is where I get all the facts and I will not follow anything on social medias or on the news.

Press briefings (https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/media-resources/press-briefings)

[BobL]

Unfortunately the WHO briefings won’t tell us anything about when the currently unavailable widget that is out of stock in your local hardware is going to become available so it’s only natural to look elsewhere- not that anyone else can do that either.

[woodPixel]

This represents some VERY interesting opportunities.

Small makers and specialist builders with small operations should be jumping all over this.

It may represent an unrepeatable golden opportunity.

The VERY worst these businesses should do is pitch themselves as a Plan B for these end users. Obviously prices will change, but so will the quality. People, errr The Public, might see excellent value in receiving high quality items.

[ian]

This represents some VERY interesting opportunities.

Small makers and specialist builders with small operations should be jumping all over this.

It may represent an unrepeatable golden opportunity.

The VERY worst these businesses should do is pitch themselves as a Plan B for these end users. Obviously prices will change, but so will the quality. People, errr The Public, might see excellent value in receiving high quality items.
Plan B still requires that the maker source key items (screws, and such) from manufacturers outside Australia.

[woodPixel]

P&G warns 17,600 products possibly hit by coronavirus - Supply Management (https://www.cips.org/en-AU/supply-management/news/2020/february/pg-warns-17600-products-possibly-hit-by-coronavirus/)

[BobL]

Plan B still requires that the maker source key items (screws, and such) from manufacturers outside Australia.

Maybe that represents another opportunity?

[Glider]

The problem with broadcasting the possibility of shortages is that they're a self-fulfilling prophesy. Businesses stock up, then lead times blow out which alters the re-order trigger formulae used by inventory controllers.

Back in the late 70s some global expert predicted world wide shortages of practically everything. The bedlam lasted for about three years.

Many large companies recognise the danger of single sourcing and split their business but only the biggest can afford to dilute their purchasing power with impunity. Often the capital cost of custom tooling directs business to a single vendor.

mick

[BobL]

Back in the late 70s some global expert predicted world wide shortages of practically everything. The bedlam lasted for about three years.


I remember reading TIME MAGAZINE article in about 1978 that said we were going to run massively short of oil by 1990, copper a few years later, and even uranium by 2025.

The one that worries me a bit is the impact of global warming on the coffee industry.
Coffee only grows at a certain altitude and under specific weather conditions.

As the earth warms and climate gets more variable this translates into coffee trees requiring higher altitudes of which there is very limited arable land available so the coffee crop will be much reduced. This has already started to take effect as coffee trees are already dying at lower altitudes and have to be planted increasingly higher up mountain slopes

Apparently the bio people have been working on breeding a coffee plant that tolerates a warmer earth this but because there are so few genetic variants (just two) of coffee plants this is really hard to do. It also means that if a serious bug were to hit coffee trees it could seriously damaged most of the coffee plants all over the world.

[Simplicity]

I remember reading TIME MAGAZINE article in about 1978 that said we were going to run massively short of oil by 1990, copper a few years later, and even uranium by 2025.

The one that worries me a bit is the impact of global warming on the coffee industry.
Coffee only grows at a certain altitude and under specific weather conditions.

As the earth warms and climate gets more variable this translates into coffee trees requiring higher altitudes of which there is very limited arable land available so the coffee crop will be much reduced. This has already started to take effect as coffee trees are already dying at lower altitudes and have to be planted increasingly higher up mountain slopes

Apparently the bio people have been working on breeding a coffee plant that tolerates a warmer earth this but because there are so few genetic variants (just two) of coffee plants this is really hard to do. It also means that if a serious bug were to hit coffee trees it could seriously damaged most of the coffee plants all over the world.

Lol
Bob that made me laugh and cry , I to love a good coffee.
Maybe there is my problem,

Cheers Matt,
Hope this doesn’t cause offence, just thought it was amusing.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[woodPixel]

Hhehe. BobL, I've beaten you to it. I hit up Amazon while they had coffee on special in January and bought 6 bags!

A bag lasts a month... if I ration it out, more... maybe I can be a noble when the apocalypse hits. Coffee might be a new currency. I'm rich!

Muhahaha!

[BobL]

Hhehe. BobL, I've beaten you to it. I hit up Amazon while they had coffee on special in January and bought 6 bags!

A bag lasts a month... if I ration it out, more... maybe I can be a noble when the apocalypse hits. Coffee might be a new currency. I'm rich!

Muhahaha!

We go through ~3 kg a month and it's roasted locally.
SWMBO goes though about 2/3kg, just about everyone who drops around usually has one or two the rest are mine.
Every shot is 15-18g of coffee so each shot is slightly more than a double. The shots are pulled short to reduce caffeine a bit.

[poundy]

Hhehe. BobL, I've beaten you to it. I hit up Amazon while they had coffee on special in January and bought 6 bags!

A bag lasts a month... if I ration it out, more... maybe I can be a noble when the apocalypse hits. Coffee might be a new currency. I'm rich!

Muhahaha!

We go through ~3 kg a month and it's roasted locally.
SWMBO goes though about 2/3kg, just about everyone who drops around usually has one or two the rest are mine.
Every shot is 15-18g of coffee so each shot is slightly more than a double. The shots are pulled short to reduce caffeine a bit.

lightweights :)
I have over 300kg of green coffee in my garage ready to roast :)
I'm running short this week so I'll do a mini-roast for me on the weekend, and then I'll roast up for fam/friends the weekend after when I will usually roast 10-20kg.
But yes, the climate change has me worried too. Coronavirus at this point isn't worrying me around coffee supply

[woodPixel]

I have over 300kg of green coffee in my garage ready to roast :)
I'm running short this week so I'll do a mini-roast for me on the weekend, and then I'll roast up for fam/friends the weekend after when I will usually roast 10-20kg.

Are fellow chums on the WWF "friends" ;) :) :) :)

You'll need to start a thread showing the process. Id LOVE a huge pile of coffee. :) :) :) :3 :3

[Glider]

Now I'm really worried. It could be time to start dabbling in cryonics for coffee.

mick :)

[GraemeCook]

..... This has already started to take effect as coffee trees are already dying at lower altitudes and have to be planted increasingly higher up mountain slopes

Apparently the bio people have been working on breeding a coffee plant that tolerates a warmer earth this but because there are so few genetic variants (just two) of coffee plants this is really hard to do. It also means that if a serious bug were to hit coffee trees it could seriously damaged most of the coffee plants all over the world.


Don't worry, Bob. Many years ago I worked for an investment organisation and through that was chairman of a coffee company for five years. That scare has been around for at least 50 years!

There are two main species of commercial coffee in the world today.

Arabica is the highland coffee that grows on the mountainsides and produces the fine tasting stuff used in expresso and brewed coffee. Columbian, Ethiopian, PNG, etc, are all Arabica coffees.

Robustra is grown on hot, humid tropical lowlands. It is a much inferior product, taste-wise, and is used almost exclusively for instant coffee production.

Plant breeders are constantly improving all strains and have produced a hybrid - Arabustra - with less than stella results. As one coffee breeder told me - you cannot cross two species of grapes and expect the taste of cabernet sauvignon and the yields of sultana grapes; but we are trying....

[Bushmiller]

Graeme

I will jump in here on Bob's behalf, although he is more than capable of speaking for himself, as I happen to know that for a while he was a judge in barista competitions. Having met him I know he has a thorough understanding of the two types of coffee bean and many aspects of coffee drinking and production. Actually, some people might argue there is only one coffee bean and then there is a berry which produces another instant drink, which is a similar colour to coffee. :)

Typically arabica coffee grows above 5000' (in tropical regions) and I think Bob was pointing out that the elevation might not be sufficient in the future if the climate continues to warm.

Your comment about the rumours of coffee plantations dying being evident for fifty years is probably true as global warming has been occurring for longer than that. There just has not been general acceptance of this phenomena. I particularly like your grape analogy.

Regards
Paul

[BobL]

Thanks Paul,

I have been following the coffee, climate, suitable elevation for growth for some time in the peer reviewed scientific literature and through contacts in the coffee business. These articles are easy to find so I won't quote any here. There are some potential climate change positives with improved production and pollination but these are unlikely to offset the negatives of reduced availability of land with a suitable elevation and increases in pest activity. The concern I have that suggests this is not just a rumour is that already in central America, Arabica coffee plants are less productive and lower quality at lower altitudes and coffee growers are having to move up to higher elevations to maintain production and more important quality. In some places this has been as much as 200m in vertical height. Unfortunately because most mountains have a finite height and culminate as peaks, at increased altitudes there is simply less suitable land.

As for Robusta - I will only drink it as a last resort :-)

[DomAU]

Thanks guys. Just when I thought there wasn't enough to worry about with the global debt bubble and associated asset bubbles, climate change, bees dying, and an overall lack of natural resource availability into the future, you really bring it home where it hurts and specifically bring coffee into it. I'm already paying about $50- per kg + shipping for my coffee beans and I'm prepared to go as high as required provided I can afford it, but I'd rather not have to. Hopefully when the debt bubble pops we'll be in a recession long enough to dampen demand for everything and this will keep quality coffee at a reasonable price / availability - provided I still have a job...

But in all seriousness, I foresee that coffee won't be the only thing we are all fighting over in the near future if we don't figure out a way to slow our over-consumption of this planet.

Cheers,

Dom

[orraloon]

It's not space on retail shelves that has me as worried as the space starting to appear in my retirement fund. Will likely have to cut back on shed toys if the markets keep going south like the last two days.
Regards
John

[woodPixel]

DomAU, you forgot Betelgeuse going supernova.

[DomAU]

It's not space on retail shelves that has me as worried as the space starting to appear in my retirement fund. Will likely have to cut back on shed toys if the markets keep going south like the last two days.
Regards
John

So far 6.2% downturn is not much compared to the massive growth we've seen over the last years or even last year. Maybe get out while things are still at record highs and go to cash?

Although cash isn't that safe either. Not many places to hide I feel.

[yvan]

Power could be free and we still won't be competitive when production workers here are earning in a few hours what their Asian counterparts make in a week.

Quite so. On the other hand these Asian workers do not live in countries offering their citizens free universal health, NDIS, a government spending some $40 billion or so on welfare support or, for that matter, a government able to lock in some $80 billion in today's money to buy 10, yes, TEN submarines. One billion here, one billion there, it soon adds up to money (with apologies to Tip O'Neil) !!!

We expect the high living standards of First World countries. One way or another, we have to pay for these standards and $2 per hour for Australian production workers simply won't do!

Am off my soap box...

Yvan

[Beardy]

Quite so. On the other hand these Asian workers do not live in countries offering their citizens free universal health, NDIS, a government spending some $40 billion or so on welfare support or, for that matter, a government able to lock in some $80 billion in today's money to buy 10, yes, TEN submarines. One billion here, one billion there, it soon adds up to money (with apologies to Tip O'Neil) !!!

We expect the high living standards of First World countries. One way or another, we have to pay for these standards and $2 per hour for Australian production workers simply won't do!

Am off my soap box...

Yvan

Absolutely and I am sure no one wants to lose the living standards we all enjoy but the harsh reality is we cannot have it both ways so it is fanciful to think we will be able to compete in manufacturing

[Bushmiller]

My daughter sent me the following link as a matter of urgency. She knows Craig Dalton, the author, at a personal level, but not at a professional level. My daughter, who is a very well balanced person, says that Craig too is a person not given to over dramatising and has posted this blog out of concern with no intent for personal gain:

Coronavirus: Analysts Don't Understand It - Craig Dalton | Seeking Alpha (https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/48606151-craig-dalton/5408825-coronavirus-analysts-dont-understand)

I don't know Craig Dalton personally but he states his credentials right at the start and it is, to my mind, a considered appraisal. It is a false sense of confidence to stick our collective, wooden heads in the sand (my preferred strategy when confronted by anything, particularly if you give any credence to my wife's beliefs) so it is a heads up, but not good news I'm afraid. It looks to me as though things will get worse before they get better. This will apply even more to those of you approaching retirement age or already in retirement.

At least you may be in a position to take evasive action.

Regards
Paul

[BobL]

Despite Craig Dalton's excellent credentials (I've been involved in his Flutracking program for a few years) I'm reluctant to use/recommend any personal blogs etc for this sort of things. I'd ignore what's being said on social media (like this site :oo:) and most news services especially tabloids who don't or can't always interpret the officially provided info.

As stated above the most reliable international information is going to come out of WHO
Coronavirus disease 2019 (https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019)

If you want/need info closer to home
The Australian health Dept website
Coronavirus (COVID-19) health alert | Australian Government Department of Health (https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert)
And links therein

Or even closer, the health Dept in your state
eg for WA its Coronavirus (COVID-19) (https://ww2.health.wa.gov.au/Articles/A_E/Coronavirus)
And links therein

[BobL]

One of my northern Italian relatives who lives about 50km from a couple of COVID19 affected and locked down villages posted this on FB (Ha Ha)
469249

It translates roughly to


Don't write BS on Social Media (SM)
Don't read BS on SM
Don't share BS in SM
Don't comment on idiotic posts on SM
Repeat 20 times, I'm not a virologist and I know nothing about viruses
Wash your hands well and after and while you are at it, may be also your armpits
Reread the above 6 times..

[Bushmiller]

Despite Craig Dalton's excellent credentials (I've been involved in his Flutracking program for a few years) I'm reluctant to use/recommend any personal blogs etc for this sort of things. I'd ignore what's being said on social media (like this site :oo:) and most news services especially tabloids who don't or can't always interpret the officially provided info.

As stated above the most reliable international information is going to come out of WHO
Coronavirus disease 2019 (https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019)

If you want/need info closer to home
The Australian health Dept website
Coronavirus (COVID-19) health alert | Australian Government Department of Health (https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert)
And links therein

Or even closer, the health Dept in your state
eg for WA its Coronavirus (COVID-19) (https://ww2.health.wa.gov.au/Articles/A_E/Coronavirus)
And links therein

Bob

I hope you're right and the coffee keeps flowing.

Regards
Paul

[BobL]

Bob

I hope you're right and the coffee keeps flowing.

Regards
Paul

Local coffee service has decidedly been below par with this broken ankle and the ongoing illness of the resident slave (SWMBO).

Despite a slight increase in visitors it looks like we are going to go for a full 5 weeks on the usual 3kg a month we get delivered.
Just as well a few mates have popped in and taken me out for a :coffee: during the week.

[Bushmiller]

It would appear that there are elements around the world who place some credence to the seriousness of the outbreak and I have noticed there have been very few pix on this thread: We all love pix. So a few suggestions:

Just a quick disclaimer. As this is a blog and of little value none of these precautions can be recommended or endorsed by the Forum, the owner of the Forum, any moderators irrespective of age or indeed the originator of this post and neither have they been tested for effectiveness.

A full bodied model is recommended here:

469277

Another dual purpose version, but frequent washing is advised if alternating between purposes:

469278

Risk is worse on some days:

469279

More is better; You just can't be too safe:

469280

Probably not the best answer if your partner suffers from Delirium Tremens. You could be mistaken for a pink elephant:

469281

Hermetically sealed, the ultimate, but a little restrictive; movement, talking, toilet, bank robbing...actually pretty much anything:

469283

I am Darth Vader. I can kill you with one blow....from my mouth:

469284

Humans are not the only creatures at risk:

469286

This is to prevent "Reverse Zoonosis."

469287

Regards
Paul

[wheelinround]

What I want to know is will the forum survive such a virus? Being us old blokes are more susceptible it could cut back numbers of active members.
This will also cause a glut of old tools and whole workshops to hit the market brining our beloved tools crashing down in value!
Those young blokes dont like old tools they prefer modern battery powered gizmos.


Might be worth keeping an eye on sales of pre wife sell offs.

Sent from my SM-T580 using Tapatalk

[BobL]

What I want to know is will the forum survive such a virus? Being us old blokes are more susceptible it could cut back numbers of active members. This will also cause a glut of old tools and whole workshops to hit the market brining our beloved tools crashing down in value!
Those young blokes dont like old tools they prefer modern battery powered gizmos. Might be worth keeping an eye on sales of pre wife sell offs.

Couple of observations

Most (89%) Australians already die aged 65 or older.

For older males that become infected, the mortality rate of COVID19 is from~ 6% (for those aged 60 to 69) to ~25% (those aged over 80)

About 8% of blokes between 60 and 69 will die anyway so, provided all Australian males in this cohort catch COVID19 the additional deaths from COVID19 can at a max increase the death rate for this cohort from 8 to 14%
BUT
1) Not everyone will get COVID19
AND
2) As COVID19 kills more blokes with a pre-existing medical condition there will be a cross over between the 6% that die from COVID19 and the 8% that normally die.

I did a few back of the envelope calcs and estimated something like an increase in the total deaths rate of that cohort from 8% that normally die, to ~10% (those that would normally die + those from COVID19) which interestingly was the death rate for Aussie blokes aged 60-69 about 10 years ago.

Ultimately it will be the infection rate that will determine the number of blokes that pass away and hence tools that will become available.

My guess is that most fellas over 80 have given their gear away already?

[Beardy]

Hahaha

All the problems the world is facing and everyone here is just worried about their tools and their coffee.

Just goes to show when push comes to shove you see what the real priorities are. :2tsup:

[GraemeCook]

[QUOTE=wheelinround;2175946]What I want to know is will the forum survive such a virus? ......./QUOTE]

Just make sure you wear a mask when accessing the Forum !

[BoneInspector]

As a younger member (sub 50) I will admit to seeing an upside after reading the last couple of posts.
All tools have their place, both old and the new electric gizmos and the more I can get the better.

[Handyjack]

When I expire from what ever cause, I am not going to worry about my tools.

I have a life membership of an organization. Every year they send out a membership card that has an expiry date. Does this suggest I am going to expire when the card does? Perhaps one day.

Wife is stocking up on items. We went out and bought a chest freezer. Not sure, but it is big enough to put a body in.

Hopefully there will not be a shortage of hardware items as so many of them are made in Asia, particularly China. Could get interesting if one is unable to buy consumables like screws or spare parts.

[crowie]

Hahaha

All the problems the world is facing and everyone here is just worried about their tools and their coffee.

Just goes to show when push comes to shove you see what the real priorities are. :2tsup:

You forgot the stashes of timber under everyones house!!

[woodPixel]

You know, I see an upside in this.

I'm not old, but I'm not young... 50.

I've lived a lot, made some (i.e. "lots") hideous mistakes, experienced great joy, unique experiences and permanent happy memories. I've tried to be a good man.

I've known about this since December 18th. A lot longer than most.

One thing that has wrapped me, like a warm blanket, are a few thoughts and parables I remind myself of frequently.

First is the old Greek, Gnothi Seauton or for those Latin fans out there, Temet Nosce.

It's ancient, but so hard to do. Its like Ikigai.


The others are.....

Grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, Courage to change the things I can, And wisdom to know the difference - Serenity prayer


Ultimately, we're all dead men. Sadly, we cannot choose how, but what we can decide is how we meet that end, in order that we are remembered as men - Proximo

[BobL]

This is interesting

469398

[justonething]

What are the x and y axes of that graph?

[Midnight Man]

What are the x and y axes of that graph?

They're buried within the graph - X is how contagious, Y is how deadly.

[BobL]

What are the x and y axes of that graph?
Sorry, X is level of contagion (average number of people infected by someone already infected) Y is % death rate.

[MrSlow]

Lots of discussion else where about how contagious it is. R0 is the symbol that is used and currently its anywhere between 0.45 and 3.5. Anything over 1 is not great as it implies that it will keep spreading.

[BobL]

Another (worldwide) perspective.

The WHO COVID19 daily report says that on March 1, 53 persons died from COVID19

On average across the year on every day during 2019;
~26,000 died of cancer
~25,000 people died of hunger (~20,000 were kids)
~24,000 died of heat disease
~ 4000 of diabetes
~ 3700 of motor vehicle accidents
~30X more people very sadly took their own lives
~2700 were killed by mozzies
The ordinary flu kills somewhere between 800 and 1800
~1300 were killed by fellow humans
~140 were killed by snakes

Interestingly at my grandsons birthday party in a park yesterday a kid spotted a 1m long tiger snake in a clump of bushes near the main car park about 50 way from the main playground. We all just kept an eye out to stop the kids from heading over that way and to warn newly arriving people in the car park to not walk that way. About 30 minutes later we could no longer spot the snake and we reckoned the hoards of screaming kids drove the snake away.

[woodPixel]

... and 35,000 people starve to death every day. 16,000 of which are children.

.... 3.1 million children under five every year

(sources are wikipedia on Starvation)

Yet, our focus is on ourselves.

[Bernmc]

The influenza virus kills up to 60000 Americans a year. Every year. There's a vaccine for that, but of course people are afraid of catching autism :rolleyes:.

This little virus will spread, no matter what. It will kill mostly elderly and infirm, and some young and healthy. There should be a vaccine in 12-18 months, but beware of catching autism instead of dying.

The main issue for those of us dealing with it is going to be overwhelming demands on limited resources. My advice would be to go out and catch it early, while there are still ICU beds available.

(This is tongue in cheek if you haven't worked that out and caught autism from a vaccine. Point is, these respiratory viruses aren't new. This won't be the last either. Keep calm, live healthily, and make sure you've spent the kid's inheritance).

[BoneInspector]

Drifting off topic but reading about vaccines I remembered this little gem.

I can just hear the sound of the mind breaking every time I read it.

469424

[woodPixel]

BoneInspector - today, you win One Internet.

I'm keeping that!

[BobL]

Haven’t seen this mentioned anywhere but 2 useful outcomes of COVID19 are a massive reduction in industrial air pollution over China (and hence the whole northern hemisphere) and a significant world reduction in high altitude dust from reduced air travel could produce some global cooling. At some point I wonder if the benefit of these could outweigh the death rates from COVID19?

[clear out]

We’ve stocked up our pantry ( or to be truthful my wife has).
I had a look at my medications and guess what, two had ‘Packaged in China’ on them.
The other had nothing so it probably is also.
So I bought two months worth, just in case.
H.

[BobL]

We’ve stocked up our pantry ( or to be truthful my wife has).
I had a look at my medications and guess what, two had ‘Packaged in China’ on them.
The other had nothing so it probably is also.
So I bought two months worth, just in case.
H.

Apparently a lot of our meds come from India and are just repacked here in OZ.

I currently take 14 pills a day (8 different types) for kidney (yes I only have one) heart, blood pressure, diabetes, hypercalcemia, sarcoidosis and now possibly osteoporosis! At the rate I'm going buying meds this year I look like I will finally make the $1600 safety net that means I can get scrips for $6 (as opposed to up to $44) for the rest of the year.
BUT
if you buy more than 1 of the same med at the same time the subsequent ones don't count towards the safety.

I figure I'm a prime candidate for a COVID19 casualty anyway so I'm not worrying too much about it.

[woodPixel]

I really dont want to add too much on this thread - I'm fairly sure people know my mindset.

However, I will add that for endless seizures (essentially untreatable brain tumour), my wife takes 5 different anti-epileptics.

4 weeks ago we went to the chemist and I asked for 6 months supply of all of them.

They had to ring FOUR different suppliers to get the Carbamezapine (Tegretol). ALL of them were out of stock.... this was 4 weeks ago. It took 4 full days for them to get everything in for us.

This anti-epileptic is used by literally every single person with epilepsy or a neuronal issue... its ubiquitously prescribed.

We, obviously, forewent the Safety Net - but not having this medication is simply not an option for my wife. Without it its unending seizures (100 in a day).


NOT ONE company makes any of these drugs here in Australia.

From what I can tell from Googling, most of the precursors come from India and China. They are mixed/prepared/packaged in Malaysia or the Philippines. They do a mighty good job of it too.


For those who must take meds - get them now.

I suspect... hmmm, fear.... that this supply chain will break down pretty badly for a while. If we think not being able to get Shellac, nail or bolts is a bummer, wait until your blood pressure meds run out.....


edit - I will say, the chemist, in BobL's case with the $44 vs $6, is they WILL order your stuff in and keep it in store for you WITH your name on it. It is yours. Its reserved. You dont pay for it, but it is there for you to pick up. You simply need to ask them to do this. Obviously, one has to trust the chemist has done this - but I have seen them do this with SWMBOs chemo meds when she did the 6 month course last time - PLUS our local chap said he would do this if we asked for other meds.

[BobL]

Fortunately if I was to stop any of my meds for a while it would not be immediately life threatening. I can control my diabetes for a month or so without meds by cutting out virtually all carbohydrates. Hypercalcemia can also be handled sans meds but requires me to cut out as much Ca loaded food as possible but long term will screw with my possible osteoporosis. These two combined doesn’t leave much I can eat especially if fresh food becomes scarce. But it won’t hurt me to go on a diet as I am about 25 kg overweight! This would also help my heart and BP.

Ive gone for about 3 months on one meal a day last year and it was not as bad as I thought it would be.

could be time to start the diet again!

[woodPixel]

BobL, I think a good hard fast would be ...beneficial ... for quite a few members :)

Me especially! :) :)

[Midnight Man]

BobL, I think a good hard fast would be ...beneficial ... for quite a few members :)

Me especially! :) :)

Shush. You shouldn't suggest these sorts of things. Like Garfield, I enjoy my food too much ;)

[BobL]

SWMBO still has vertigo and I've still got my ankle in a moon boot so no driving for either of us.
SWMBO could with some effort walk to the nearest small supermarket about 500m away but they closed down 12 months ago and that place is now medical spa!
After a few grocery shops by friends and relatives a couple of weeks ago we gave online shopping a try and it seems to be fine - actually very convenient.
Yesterday SWMBO placed an order at order thru Coles, including for a pack of toilet paper, which we needed.
The groceries were delivered today but no toilet paper - oh well we do have a sort of bidet arrangement so I'm not fussed
BUT
SWMBO was somewhat distressed and promptly tried a bunch of other online places - same problem.
Eventually I went down the shed and found 10 rolls of paper that I use to wipe things down like my MW lathe and mill.
Hopefully that will last until the shops are restocked.

[AlexS]

Eventually I went down the shed and found 10 rolls of paper that I use... I thought you were going to suggest sandpaper!

[thumbsucker]

People are afraid - I took trip to Woolworths today (Regional Victoria). Very busy, crowded.

The staff were sanitising and wiping down shopping trolleys and baskets.

Toilet paper all gone
Baby products i.e. nappies severely depleted
White rice all gone
Cat litter all gone
Salt bulk all gone only expensive small boutique salt left.
Several "sorry this item is out of stock" signs decorating empty shelves.

I have a well stocked pantry of beans, rice, pasta and spices many people do not.

This is only the start and will get worse.

[GraemeCook]

It's sure weird, TS

Was in the local pharmacy on Saturday morning and noted they had plenty of toilet paper on display.

"It's weird," said the pharamacist, "We haven't sold much toilet paper, but we have had a run on paracetamol and isopropyl alcohol. And so has our isopropyl alcohol supplier."

[thumbsucker]

Fear is not rational. We are seeing panic buying.

I do not know what to make of this Covid-19. Governments says its nothing no worse then the common flu (not wanting to cause a panic) but then whole regions/countries are being quarantined. I think many people feel this dissonance between what they are being told by officials and what they see and fear.

All we have to fear is fear itself.

[BobL]

About one third of my northen Italian rellies are in lockdown towns. It’s weird because shops, restaurants and bars can open during the day but patrons are supposed to stay 1m apart. Organizing Italians is a bit like herding cats so I can’t see that working. Most of the Southern Italian working/living in the north have also already headed south so that’s been a real success!!