CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[BobL]

This graph is interesting - new infections detected per day, by state.
It's early days but it looks like the WA and SA state shutdowns might be working.
I think it was sort of already happening before it was made official last week.
Also I think the early self quarantining was probably a bit on the slack side and now they are taking it a bit more seriously.

470604

[FenceFurniture]

Caveat: I do not suggest that Wayne Swan was particularly good at his job. However...

A bit of history...

This week economist John Quiggin lamented the fact that Kevin Rudd (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/aug/26/rudd-stimulus-cuts) doesn’t get more credit for economic management
snip
snip
and ask yourself: are we on the same trajectory?You haven't shown what the source & author is - that's important for full disclosure. It can be deduced that it was from 2013 (following the link to John Quiggin).


What those European countries wanted for, in other words, was Australian treasurer Peter Costello running their budgets in the long lead-up to 2008.This is an absolute crock.

What those European countries wanted for was a land full of resources that China wanted. Costello was lucky and lazy. Any idiot with a pulse and an abacus could have balanced the books in those years. There was a tourism filip after the Olympics, where tourism was almost 4% of GDP. They were sought and won by the NSW Govt (no doubt with Fed assistance) long before Costello was Treasurer. Then there was that little thing called the mining boom that was delivering enormous amounts of money for Costello to play with. So they bought off the electorate with three rounds of tax cuts, when only the first was justified. What they could have done was try and keep our manufacturing industry smart and alive, with some very prudent investment, but no, bribing the electorate so they could stay in power was more important.


Australia hit the 2008 crisis in rude financial health: debt-free, growing strongly with significant assets and running surplus budgets. It is these robust foundations, along with very favourable terms of trade, which guaranteed that Australia would survive the crisis in very good shape.This is true, but not due to any savviness from Costello. It was because the Chinese wanted every bit of resource we would sell them. Jaysus, we even sold them Darwin Port eventually.


Joe Hockey: "...we will deliver the surplus in our first year and every later year."
Ahh, nope. Six budgets and counting.

[Lappa]

If they had cruise chips berthing and idiots letting them in without testing, then their numbers may be a little different.

[doug3030]

You haven't shown what the source & author is - that's important for full disclosure.

So if source and author is so important to you Brett, can you please supply source and author in support of what you said below, in the interest of full disclosure?


What those European countries wanted for was a land full of resources that China wanted. Costello was lucky and lazy. Any idiot with a pulse and an abacus could have balanced the books in those years. There was a tourism filip after the Olympics, where tourism was almost 4% of GDP. They were sought and won by the NSW Govt (no doubt with Fed assistance) long before Costello was Treasurer. Then there was that little thing called the mining boom that was delivering enormous amounts of money for Costello to play with. So they bought off the electorate with three rounds of tax cuts, when only the first was justified. What they could have done was try and keep our manufacturing industry smart and alive, with some very prudent investment, but no, bribing the electorate so they could stay in power was more important.

[BobL]

SWMBO has been making some masks for kids and I asked for one with the same front design hoping it might persuade eedjets to steer clear.
Do I look suitably rabid/infected enough?
470606

[Lappa]

Leased the Darwin Port - not sold

[Beardy]

Brett manufacturing was never going to survive in this country and both sides of politics have acknowledged that. Nobody is prepared to work for third world wages here

[Tccp123]

Do I look suitably rabid/infected enough?

You look nothing like I'd imagined (that's good :)) but yes suitably infected!

[doug3030]

SWMBO has been making some masks for kids and I asked for one with the same front design hoping it might persuade eedjets to steer clear.
Do I look suitably rabid/infected enough?
470606

If you hadn't combed your hair so nicely you would probably look a lot scarier. :o:C

[FenceFurniture]

This graph is interesting - new infections detected per day, by state.
It's early days but it looks like the WA and SA state shutdowns might be working.I think at least another 5-7 days of stats would be required for a reliable trend in that Bob. Too many wild cards like the Ruby Princess fiasco in NSW, most international flights arrive on the Eastern Seaboard etc etc. NSW has been trending down too, and the Rottnest Island stats might blow WA out of the water (unless McGowan cheats and doesn't count them :D).

[BobL]

I think at least another 5-7 days of stats would be required for a reliable trend in that Bob. Too many wild cards like the Ruby Princess fiasco in NSW, most international flights arrive on the Eastern Seaboard etc etc. NSW has been trending down too, and the Rottnest Island stats might blow WA out of the water (unless McGowan cheats and doesn't count them :D).

Rottnest has been excised from the State control to be taken over by the feds. I don't know - Anyway I agree a few more days of stats are needed.

[BobL]

If you hadn't combed your hair so nicely you would probably look a lot scarier. :o:C

Thats what SWMBO said. Her term of endearment is, "local derro"

I'm thinking of hanging a gobby of green-goop from underneath. memories of a "Young Ones" episode who's name escapes me.

[FenceFurniture]

Leased the Darwin Port - not soldFor 99 years - as good as sold really.


Brett manufacturing was never going to survive in this country and both sides of politics have acknowledged that. Nobody is prepared to work for third world wages hereAs it was then, yes I agree. We needed to go to the smarter end of it - I don't know exactly what that would be, but when countries like China and India are taking over laborious industry because of their cheap labour then it was time for us to look at and invest in much higher end industry. Mind you, as their lifestyles and conditions improve, cheap labour from China and India will come to an end and move to probably Africa in due course.

[doug3030]

As it was then, yes I agree. We needed to go to the smarter end of it - I don't know exactly what that would be, but when countries like China and India are taking over laborious industry because of their cheap labour then it was time for us to look at and invest in much higher end industry. Mind you, as their lifestyles and conditions improve, cheap labour from China and India will come to an end and move to probably Africa in due course.

Brett, can you also please supply source and author in support of what you said here too, in the interest of full disclosure? It's not a good look if you are not holding yourself to the same standard you are demanding from everyone else.

[Tccp123]

Brett, can you also please supply source and author in support of what you said here too, in the interest of full disclosure? It's not a good look if you are not holding yourself to the same standard you are demanding from everyone else.


I think we're all eagerly awaiting a reply to this question...

[Tccp123]

Sorry, missed the original message. Here it is:

"As it was then, yes I agree. We needed to go to the smarter end of it - I don't know exactly what that would be, but when countries like China and India are taking over laborious industry because of their cheap labour then it was time for us to look at and invest in much higher end industry. Mind you, as their lifestyles and conditions improve, cheap labour from China and India will come to an end and move to probably Africa in due course"

[Lappa]

For 99 years - as good as sold really.

.

True - but I thought facts were important.

[FenceFurniture]

True - but I thought facts were important.Not as important as point scoring for some people, especially when such a minor difference in the terminology makes one description as good as the other, as you acknowledge.

Tccp123, apart from the first four words, is any of the rest of this your work, or is it an uncredited copy & paste, otherwise known as plagiarism?
A bit of history...

This week economist John Quiggin lamented the fact that Kevin Rudd (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/aug/26/rudd-stimulus-cuts) doesn’t get more credit for economic management, given the fact that Australia came through the global financial crisis in solid shape and has avoided a recession. This is a common source of puzzlement amongst some, but let me solve this apparent conundrum.
The first thing to note is that Rudd’s economic management did not, in fact, save Australia from the fate that befell other countries. European countries have not been in crisis because they did not have him at the helm; the US did not suffer an economic disaster because it wanted for a Wayne Swan when the crisis hit. Greece and other countries are not in economic catastrophe mode simply because they failed to send out $900 cheques to their citizens (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/5341306/Australians-get-900-cheques-from-government-to-boost-spending.html).
The simple fact is that all of these countries went into the disaster-zone in 2008 because when the global financial crisis hurricane hit, they had high government debt and high budget deficits, which made them extremely vulnerable to adverse shocks. Had any one of these countries’ governments faced the crisis with zero government debt and consistent budget surpluses, they would have been considered pillars of strength rather than sources of weakness. What those European countries wanted for, in other words, was Australian treasurer Peter Costello running their budgets in the long lead-up to 2008.
Australia hit the 2008 crisis in rude financial health: debt-free, growing strongly with significant assets and running surplus budgets. It is these robust foundations, along with very favourable terms of trade, which guaranteed that Australia would survive the crisis in very good shape.
Just prior to the crisis, reserve bank governor Glenn Stevens drew attention to the magnificent financial position built up over more than a decade by Costello, saying that “the capacity to respond, if need be, to developments in the future is virtually without peer (http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2008/sp-gov-150508.html).” Little did he know at the time, but three months later that position of economic strength would be tested in the most dramatic fashion.
The pre-existing strength of the Australian government’s finances were to prove a bulwark against the economic storm and investors, businesspeople, consumers and financial markets were greatly reassured by the strength of the Australian economy. On top of those firm foundations, each political party in Australia was in the wonderful position of being able to offer stimulus packages drawing on these sound finances. People will debate the merits of the respective stimulus packages, but with its strong terms of trade, Australia was foreordained to outperform other countries once the storm hit, and foreordained to receive accolades from the International Monetary Fund for doing so.
The most important lesson about the global financial crisis is not about what happened after it hit but in what happened in the lead-up, and this can be summarised simply: don’t put your country into a zone of financial vulnerability.
How did so many leaders allow their countries to drift into that zone? They tried to explain that rising debt levels were not unreasonable compared to other countries. When quizzed about growing budget deficits in the UK, for example, chancellor of the exchequer Gordon Brown would always point out that Britain’s government debt and deficit levels were reasonable when one looked at other comparable countries. “Net debt is now 47% of national income in France, 47% in America, in Germany 62%, in Japan 83% and in Italy over 100% – but this year in Britain 36.4%,” Brown said in 2006 (https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2006/mar/22/budget2006.budget) as he revealed yet another gradual economic deterioration.
Of course, Brown’s reassuring words masked a position of disastrous weakness, and this weakness only became evident when the crisis sent the British economy into a tailspin from which it has still not recovered.
The next time you hear mollifying words from Rudd that our rising debt levels are at reasonable levels compared to other countries, think about how Britons were lulled into the financial danger zone and ask yourself: are we on the same trajectory?

[doug3030]

Tccp123, apart from the first four words, is any of the rest of this your work, or is it an uncredited copy & paste, otherwise known as plagiarism?

Brett, are any of your statements without author and source any different from Tccp123's post. We are still waiting for you to respond to my request to provide source and author for two of your posts. Maybe you could do that before you start tipping $h!t over anyone else.

[Tccp123]

Brett, are any of your statements without author and source any different from Tccp123's post. We are still waiting for you to respond to my request to provide source and author for two of your posts. Maybe you could do that before you start tipping $h!t over anyone else.

???

[FenceFurniture]

???This pretty simple really, and your post was a while ago - before I put up a couple of posts that apparently doug3030 is calling in to question, demanding answers through a somewhat absurd tag-team.

It seems like you're avoiding answering: is your post #798 plagiarised or not?

I am not avoiding answering your posts, but quoting doug3030 doesn't account for an original post of yours. So you go first, and I can consider any original questions you might have.

[doug3030]

I am not avoiding answering your posts, but quoting doug3030 doesn't account for an original post of yours. So you go first, and I can consider any original questions you might have.

I strongly suggest that nobody responds to this thread until FenceFurniture answers the questions put to him and holds himself to the same standard he is demanding of everyone else. If he expects everyone else to provide source and author for their posts let's not take the discussion any further until he does so too. Lets make this a level playing field.

[FenceFurniture]

Spain is really getting hammered with 1601 deaths in two days (769 and 832).
I'm somewhat concerned about my best friend who lives on the outskirts of Barcelona. (source of info - second sentence only - me! :; )

[doug3030]

I strongly suggest that nobody responds to this thread until FenceFurniture answers the questions put to him and holds himself to the same standard he is demanding of everyone else. If he expects everyone else to provide source and author for their posts let's not take the discussion any further until he does so too. Lets make this a level playing field.

No responses please until Brett complies with the standards he is demanding of everyone else.

[Sturdee]

Maybe this thread ought to be closed as it is degenerating into just a verbal stouch.

[doug3030]

Maybe this thread ought to be closed as it is degenerating into just a verbal stouch.

In reality it is just one person who is refusing to hold himself to the same standard he is demanding from everyone else.

If we all refrain from commenting until he toes the line he drew for everyone else he might learn and put a stop to his trolling and cyber-bullying.

Everyone else is debating points fairly. We don't all agree on everything but that is what a debate is all about.

[ian]

Do I look suitably rabid/infected enough?
470606
let's see

1. your hair was cut more recently than mine
2. your hair hasn't receded as far as mine
3. your beard has been trimmed fairly recently





and no you don't look suitably "rabid" or "infected"

more "cute" -- I'll leave other adjectives to your SWMBO


:wink:

[woodPixel]

This no-haircut thing is a disaster.

I dont know how many of you are like me, but my hair is completely fine, until some arbitrary Tuesday where it goes completely feral!

It's amazing how suddenly it strikes ... Its fine, then BOOF!

Today is that day :( :(

[ian]

Can we not agree on returning to the topic that this thread has morphed into ??

I, for one, can ignore or similarly dismiss those posts that, IMO, should be treated so.



some comments from my experience in Canada ...

Many of Canada's snowbirds arrived back in country over a week ago -- ahead of the March 21st border "closure" with the US. This saw a spike in detected COVID-19 cases in Canada as the returning Canadians "brought" the virus into the country. Self-isolation among this group was not good with many returning snowbirds allegedly detouring via "the grocery store", "RV maintenance and storage sites", "gas stations" etc before reaching their permanent housing.
By mid-night Wednesday, returning snowbirds and other returning Canadians were subjected to a mandatory 14 day home quarantine
source: Strict new mandatory quarantine rules in effect for returning Canadians | CBC News (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mandatory-quarnatine-jhajdu-1.5509508) (and I'm not having a dig at Brett or anyone else)

That action was 3 days before "Scott from Marketing" imposed a similar 14 day mandatory quarantine period on returning Australians.


On March 17 -- 12 days ago -- Premier Kenny declared a state of "public health emergency" in Alberta.
Also on March 17, Parks Canada closed all visitor services within all Canadian National Parks -- was a bit of a disaster as the weather last weekend was relatively mild - at least for my part of Canada so lots of people from Calgary visited the sort of closed parks.
So by this past week, parking anywhere in all National Parks was "banned" -- being a "local" I can travel along Highway 1 to access Banff or Lake Louise but I can't access any of the parking lots alongside Highway 1 and I'm not sure if the road between Lake Louise and Jasper (Highway 93 north) is open or closed. I suspect it is closed as Avalanche Canada is no longer performing avalanche control works in the area.
A similar closure was applied to all Alberta Provincial Parks from last (Friday) night. The impact for me is that I can drop people off to ski at the Canmore Nordic Centre but I can't enter the 500 vehicle parking lot and the trails are not being groomed. All the major ski hills were ordered closed more than a week ago when Parks Canada ordered all "aerial ropeways" to close.

Other actions in Alberta this past week.
Premier Kenny has imposed a 3 month freeze on evictions -- backdated to mid-March -- if the eviction is related to non-payment of rent. If a similar blanket provision was enacted in each Australian state, people like Kye Kemp would be protected Residential and commercial tenants call for relief as coronavirus rental crisis looms - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-28/coronavirus-rental-crisis-looms-renters-landlords-under-pressure/12096388) Note that Kenny has also banned renters being charged late fees from 1st April (rents in my part of Canada are typically due on the first of the month). Kenny is encouraging landlords to work out payment plans with their tenants.
Grocery stores, gas stations and pharmacies remain open, but all cafes are closed and restaurants restricted to take-out only.
The premier has also opened his pocket book to tide people over till Federal Canadian benefits kick-in in mid-April.

If anything Alberta is much further advanced with its responsive actions than Australia.



Where I remain concerned is that Australia still seems to be doing too little too late in response to the crisis.

[doug3030]

Something to help anyone who may feel that they have been cyberbullied by someone on this or other threads:

Source: 7 Ways to Deal with Cyberbullying | Talkspace (https://www.talkspace.com/blog/7-ways-to-deal-with-cyberbullying/)

Author: Kimberly Hershenson (https://www.talkspace.com/blog/author/kimberly-hershenson/)

Date: Jul 07, 2017


Bullying isn’t new, but the way people go about it has changed. What was once reserved for the schoolyard now occurs at home or at work via social media. In fact, cyberbullying affects adults as much as children. A 2012 study (https://www.nottingham.ac.uk/news/pressreleases/2012/november/punched-from-the-screen---workplace-cyber-bullying.aspx) from the University of Nottingham and the University of Sheffield found that eight out of ten of the 320 adults surveyed across three different universities had been victims of cyberbullying in the last six months. About a quarter reported feeling humiliated, ignored, or being the subject of online gossip at least once a week.
Rude comments or bullying in general can make one feel hurt, sad, or angry, leading to feelings of depression (https://www.talkspace.com/blog/category/depression/), anxiety (https://www.talkspace.com/blog/category/anxiety/), or self-esteem issues. When the rude comments or bullying are online — when people are looking at social media at home or at work — it can be even worse because it is happening in a place where they should feel safe. It can happen when they are around people important to them such as their children.
The written word is sometimes worse than the spoken word due to its permanency, and it can feel impossible to escape bullying. People see the comments every time they return to a page. Unlike in-person bullying, the bullies who makes the rude comments online cannot see how their victims react. They may go further with their bullying then if they were actually able to see the victim’s physical reaction.
Online groups are filled with hundreds if not thousands of people who all witness the rude comments. This can make the situation more hurtful than a few people hearing the rude comments in person.
So what can you do to handle cyberbullying and be polite online? Here are a few tips:
1. Don’t retaliate and write a nasty post in response.
It will only make the situation worse.
2. Do not take the rude comments personally nor doubt your views or beliefs.
The rude comments have little to do with you. They are more about the issues of the person making them.
3. Do not reread the offending comments.
This will only lead to obsession and further anger. Report the offending comments to a group moderator if possible.
4. Understand that not everyone has your same beliefs or views.
Be open to others’ thoughts and opinions. Recognize that many people can be right. What seems like a rude comment at first glance might only be someone expressing a different opinion.
5. Make a 30 second rule.
After you’ve written something but before you post it, step away from the computer or phone for 30 seconds. When you come back, look at the message you wrote and ask yourself how you’d feel if someone wrote this to you.
6. Take a technology break.
Turn off your phone and computer for a night and enjoy doing something free from technology such as enjoying a nice meal, meditating, or taking a warm bath.
7. Technology doesn’t have to make us victims or perpetrators of bullying.
By being mindful and considerate, we can make our online experience better.
While bullying is nothing new and we all know that it’s changed, finding victims not only on the playground but where they are online, there are tactics to combat it. Raising awareness about the issue, defining it as unacceptable, and sticking up for those who are bullied are ways that we will hopefully curtail this growing problem.

[Lappa]

Not as important as point scoring for some people, especially when such a minor difference in the terminology makes one description as good as the other, as you acknowledge.



Its not about point scoring. It’s expecting from you the same as you demand from others.

[Tonyz]

Sorry, missed the original message. Here it is:

"As it was then, yes I agree. We needed to go to the smarter end of it - I don't know exactly what that would be, but when countries like China and India are taking over laborious industry because of their cheap labour then it was time for us to look at and invest in much higher end industry. Mind you, as their lifestyles and conditions improve, cheap labour from China and India will come to an end and move to probably Africa in due course"

then back to Australia, New Zealand and UK :oo:

[Bushmiller]

some comments from my experience in Canada ...

Other actions in Alberta this past week.
Premier Kenny has imposed a 3 month freeze on evictions -- backdated to mid-March -- if the eviction is related to non-payment of rent. If a similar blanket provision was enacted in each Australian state, people like Kye Kemp would be protected Residential and commercial tenants call for relief as coronavirus rental crisis looms - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-28/coronavirus-rental-crisis-looms-renters-landlords-under-pressure/12096388) Note that Kenny has also banned renters being charged late fees from 1st April (rents in my part of Canada are typically due on the first of the month). Kenny is encouraging landlords to work out payment plans with their tenants.

Where I remain concerned is that Australia still seems to be doing too little too late in response to the crisis.

Ian

Our Australian Government has been unforgivably slow in enacting most of the policies around this pandemic. It is not as if there are not examples all around the world to indicate the perils of inaction. I fully agree with some sort of moratorium on rent payment ( as I do for mortgage repayments, easy for the bank: tack it onto the end of the contract). As almost everybody is in the same boat with reduced or no income there is little point in waving the big stick over a tenant. Who would replace them anyway? I think I have seen that the UK has done something similar too, but I need somebody to confirm this.

Regards
Paul

[FenceFurniture]

Its not about point scoring. It’s expecting from you the same as you demand from others.My final words on that:


When someone quotes someone else, then it should be credited or at least a link provided, especially if it is an entire news article as post #798 was (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/aug/28/australia-global-economic-crisis).
Copying & pasting an excerpt from a post into a google search may well reveal if the words are from someone else. The same can be done for any post.
Plagiarism should be held to account in just the same way as the long standing forum convention that inaccurate or false information should be challenged.
When posting original thoughts there is no need to say anything about what source was used because self-evidently the poster is the source.

[Tccp123]

First of all a simple statement about my view on bullying - cyber or otherwise. To me it's water off a duck's back but I know others are bothered by it. There is no place for bullies - it's as simple as that. I will not respond to any message I deem to be rude or disrespectful - no explanation, I just won't respond to it.

Now the more important part. Here's a YouTube link that talks about "the numbers", specifically the exaggeration of them. This is something that has crossed my mind many times in the past two weeks. It also talks about why this might be being done. This sounds a little bit too much like a conspiracy theory to me but you be the judge. It's not overly long...

YouTube (https://youtu.be/xbEHEzEEHJ8)

[Bushmiller]

First of all a simple statement about my view on bullying - cyber or otherwise. To me it's water off a duck's back but I know others are bothered by it. There is no place for bullies - it's as simple as that. I will not respond to any message I deem to be rude or disrespectful - no explanation, I just won't respond to it.

Now the more important part. Here's a YouTube link that talks about "the numbers", specifically the exaggeration of them. This is something that has crossed my mind many times in the past two weeks. It also talks about why this might be being done. This sounds a little bit too much like a conspiracy theory to me but you be the judge. It's not overly long...

and the link is?.......

:?

:)

Regards
Paul

[Tccp123]

and the link is?.......

:?

:)

Regards
Paul


Sorry :)

YouTube (https://youtu.be/xbEHEzEEHJ8)

[BobL]

let's see
1. your hair was cut more recently than mine
Just before Xmas - female Iranian barber relatively cheap $10 but I'm not going there, SWMBO used to do it and she says she will do it again


2. your hair hasn't receded as far as mine
Perhaps a side benefit of retiring early?


3. your beard has been trimmed fairly recently
I do it myself once a month with the dog hair clippers with #3 comb. I do have a beard "trimmer" that good for edges, and ear and nose hair but it has no combs.

My impressions about Canadians V Aussies is they would be slightly better at following any "rules" than Aussies, who if challenged would express a half stunned mullet look (mainly out of ignorance) and then tell the challenger to F-off. I don't blame the average punter for everything, official communications have been woeful and highly inconsistent. Take the beaches, Some are closed and patrolled so they stay closed, some are close but unpatrolled, Some are open for short walks, runs swims (no definition provided of "short"). Some are open with nothing indicated as to what is permitted.

A lot of this attitude was demonstrated by my experience watching outside a shopping centre yesterday. The images of the mum/day, grannie and two kids going into the shopping centre are still there. Also watching on FB and still seeing lots of unrelated group postings of people.

Then there was the returning cruise ship Aussie couple on TV who were complaining about having to stay on Rottnest for their quarantine period and preferring to stay on the ship. ! I reckon people like that should be sent to a disused mining camp out near Laverton for 4 weeks instead. As for the Australians who boarded cruise ships after explicit government advice on March 9 against cruise travel, particularly for older travellers with health issues, they can have a tent in Warburton - hang on, I think that might be off limits because its a remote settlement.
Getting back to the data, yesterday saw a significant rise in detected cases on the east coast, so my "data looks promising" indication in a previous post just got blown out of the water.

[FenceFurniture]

Our Australian Government has been unforgivably slow in enacting most of the policies around this pandemic.
As almost everybody is in the same boat with reduced or no income there is little point in waving the big stick over a tenant. Who would replace them anyway?Yes, it's reminiscent of the Fed's bushfire response. Lots of fires - go to Hawaii, lots of disease - go to the footy.

In the context of a "usual" recession (and this situation is different) there is a point to make about rentals: with commercial premises, yes, extremely likely that there will be nobody else to fill the vacancy for quite some time to come. However with residential, those that are forced to sell their owner-occupied homes (or are foreclosed upon) will still need somewhere to live, and so can take up some of the slack in residential rental properties. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if vacancy rates went down (some) in a recession, not accounting for the poor souls that end up homeless.

[BobL]

Yes, it's reminiscent of the Fed's bushfire response. Lots of fires - go to Hawaii, lots of disease - go to the footy.

It's basically the difference between a Statesman and a Politican(Marketeer).
With the latter it's lots of smoke and mirrors, coverup anything nasty, dabbling with minutiae to cloud the issues, random micro managing, jolly good old chap, and carry on she'll be right.
The other is the opposite.

My impression is our pollies are only able to talk about rules and regs and telling people "to stop hoarding" because they can't think of anything inspirational or significant to say. Besides they've already lost the confidence of many people so it's almost irrelevant what any of them say. Just remember we voted these people in.

[Tonyz]

So could you knobs do any better? for gawds sake we are in one of the craziest situations the world has been it, situation and updates changing hourly.
The poor leaders of our and other nations may or may not make the (in your smart arrse minds) right decisions but rather them than me making decisions.

Aussies were slow behind America in blame focusing but hells bells we are catching up damn quick, to be the big wingers cause it hurts me and stuff my neighbours.

Times like this our leaders need to know we support them whether they are doing it correctly or 'your' way.

I am getting very angry at peoples mindsets over this, during WW2 people supported the government of the day, didnt matter if you followed that party or not, they were the leaders.

[FenceFurniture]

It's basically the difference between a Statesman and a Marketeer. Yes. There seems to be a worldwide dearth of statesmen (statespeople?) currently. UK, USA, Australia, Venezuela are just a few fairly obvious ones (to me anyway), and I'm sure there are many more. Ian can much better comment on Trudeau but I get the impression he's viewed as doing ok. Is Conte getting much (deserved) flak?



With the latter it's lots of smoke Not any more. :wink:

[Kuffy]

Now the more important part. Here's a YouTube link that talks about "the numbers", specifically the exaggeration of them. This is something that has crossed my mind many times in the past two weeks. It also talks about why this might be being done. This sounds a little bit too much like a conspiracy theory to me but you be the judge. It's not overly long...

YouTube (https://youtu.be/xbEHEzEEHJ8)

Yeah, I reckon it is just conspiracy theories. The virus happened, and there are just a bunch of lucky accidents as a result of the virus. Such as the mortality rate of older people seems to be higher than younger, which is great for the governments because older people are considered a drain on the system. Moving to a cashless society to avoid passing contaminated notes from person to person is just another lucky accident which the government benefits from by way of being able to better track the monies and not having to pay to physical manufacture of the notes.

if he said that China released the virus deliberately to kill of their older population, I'd be willing to believe that with substantial evidence. But I doubt they actually did it, simply because the virus is a bit of a unknown monster whereas a bullet flies straight and true.

[BobL]

when stage 4 kicks in and you can't get to your shed here are a few ideas for youse to try


Central Queensland men smash the stereotypes with pole dancing, embroidery and cake decorating

Central Queensland men smash the stereotypes with pole dancing, embroidery and cake decorating - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-29/men-take-up-hobbies-that-break-stereotypes/12086972)

[FenceFurniture]

Times like this our leaders need to know we support them whether they are doing it correctly or 'your' way.That's a fair point, but going to the footy and delaying measures to do so was really bloody dopey - it was a terrible look. As was the Chief Medical Officer shaking hands with journos in the green room before Insiders two weeks ago (was commented upon by the same journos at the time).

Certainly I think SmirKo's performance is now significantly better than his bushfire response. He just needs to react quicker and stronger with lockdowns and the like. Those sorts of decisions should be in the control of the most senior (unelected) health professionals who have the nouse, not politicians who crave to be loved and who may or may not follow the best public health advice they are given.

[BobL]

Times like this our leaders need to know we support them whether they are doing it correctly or 'your' way.

I am getting very angry at peoples mindsets over this, during WW2 people supported the government of the day, didnt matter if you followed that party or not, they were the leaders.

I completely disagree - there has to be continuing debate, and those in charge have to be held accountable in any circumstance, especially for IN-ACTION and not listening to a wide enough range of experts. Blindly following leaders is what North Koreans do.

For the record, Australia had 5 different prime ministers during WWII. OK one was due to Curtin passing away but we were fortunate to have him for most of the war (Oct 41 to July 45) especially as someone that stood up to Churchill and brought our troops home from Europe.

[FenceFurniture]

when stage 4 kicks in and you can't get to your shed here are a few ideas for youse to tryI can see you cake decorating with SWMBO's guidance, and I can even see you doing embroidery - a little doily for Jeffrey's pommel p'raps - maybe even some socks for his pear shaped feet. Dextrous skills that you probably have or could develop.

But Bob-on-a-Pole is a leap of faith that I can't quite get to.

[ian]

Ian

Our Australian Government has been unforgivably slow in enacting most of the policies around this pandemic. It is not as if there are not examples all around the world to indicate the perils of inaction. I fully agree with some sort of moratorium on rent payment ( as I do for mortgage repayments, easy for the bank: tack it onto the end of the contract). As almost everybody is in the same boat with reduced or no income there is little point in waving the big stick over a tenant. Who would replace them anyway? I think I have seen that the UK has done something similar too, but I need somebody to confirm this.

Regards
PaulPaul

what I took away from the link I posted was that the tenant -- Kye Kemp and her daughter -- were being evicted so that the property's owners (who have allegedly lost their incomes) could return to live in it. Note that the owners are not moving back to their primary residence -- which presumably is generating more income than what Kye is paying in rent -- but to their investment property. The comparison I was drawing is that in Alberta -- a Province with a more conservative government than those typically found in Australia -- tenant's rights were being protected and protection of those rights are backdated.

I can't quote Premier Kenny's exact words, but the gist was landlords need to work WITH tenants.




The other interesting comparison is that since the outbreak started the daily Covid-19 updates are provided by the Province's Chief Medical Officer -- Deena Hinshaw -- not the Alberta Premier.
Believe it or not but I find Dr Hinshaw a creditable source.



Edited to correct the spelling of Dr Hinshaw's

[ian]

Perhaps a side benefit of retiring early?
I believe you and I are pretty close to the same age born between 1954 and 1956.

I retired at 60-1/2 but was rather ill for a bit just before retiring.





Getting back to the data, yesterday saw a significant rise in detected cases on the east coast, so my "data looks promising" indication in a previous post just got blown out of the water.
Stricter quarantine measures started last night (Saturday).
I believe that everyone in quarantine is now being tested and including the fact that they've been returning from places like the US, South America and Europe -- all of which require long flights -- it should be expected that the numbers of confirmed and suspected cases would show an uptick.

[ian]

So could you knobs do any better? for gawds sake we are in one of the craziest situations the world has been it, situation and updates changing hourly.
The poor leaders of our and other nations may or may not make the (in your smart arrse minds) right decisions but rather them than me making decisions.

Times like this our leaders need to know we support them whether they are doing it correctly or 'your' way.


I completely disagree - there has to be continuing debate, and those in charge have to be held accountable in any circumstance, especially for IN-ACTION and not listening to a wide enough range of experts. Blindly following leaders is what North Koreans do.

For the record, Australia had 5 different prime ministers during WWII. OK one was due to Curtin passing away but we were fortunate to have him for most of the war (Oct 41 to July 45) especially as someone that stood up to Churchill and brought our troops home from Europe.
for what it's worth, I'm with BobL on this.

It's fair to draw comparisons between what's happening between countries.


As BobL intimated in an earlier post in this thread our current leaders had early warning of this crisis but some chose to ignore that warning in favour of protecting the budget "surplus".

[doug3030]

Here's a little gem someone sent me a link to. Make of it what you will.


COVID-19
Another Conspiracy Theory OR

WELL PLAYED CHINA...?

SCENE 1
The curtain opens: China becomes ill, enters a "crisis" and paralyzes its trade. The curtain closes.

SCENE II
The curtain opens: The Chinese currency is devalued. They do not do anything. The curtain closes.

SCENE III
The curtain opens: Due to the lack of trade of companies from Europe and the USA that are based in China, their shares fall 40% of their value.

SCENE IV
The curtain opens: The world is ill, China buys 30% of the shares of companies in Europe and the US at a very low price. The curtain closes.

SCENE V
The curtain opens: China has controlled the disease and owns companies in Europe and the US. And he decides that these companies stay in China and earn $ 20,000Billions. The curtain closes. How is the play called?

SCENE VI & Checkmate

Re Amazing but true

Two videos have passed between yesterday and today that convinced me of something I suspected, but had no basis. It was just my speculation. Now I am convinced that the coronavirus was purposely propagated by the Chinese themselves.

At first they were too prepared. Three weeks after the start of the roll, 14 days and a 12,000-bed hospitals were already under construction. And they really built them in two weeks.

Awesome...

They announced that they had stopped the epidemic. They appear in videos celebrating, they announce that they even have a vaccine. How could they create it so quickly without having all the genetic information? Well if you are the owner of the formula it is not difficult at all and now we saw a video that explains how Den Xiao Ping gave the west a half stick. Due to the coronavirus, the actions of Western companies in China fell dramatically. China I just hope, when they went down enough they bought them. Now the companies, Created by the USA and Europe in China with all the technology put in by these exchanges and their capital they passed into the hands of China, which is now rising with all that technological potential and will be able to set prices at will to sell everything they need to the West. How are you?

None of this could have happened by chance. China who cared that a few old men died? Fewer old-age pensions to pay, but the loot has been huge. And right now the West is financially defeated, in crisis and stunned by the disease. And without knowing what to do.

Masterfully diabolic. It had to be the communists.

Adding to this, they are now the single largest owners of US treasury with 1.18 trillion holding surpassing Japan.
An instrument that has seen the most rally

One prospective & Analogy

How come Russia & North Korea have Low or Zero incidence of Covid - 19 ?

Is it because they are staunch allies of China

On the other hand USA / South Korea / United Kingdom / France / Italy / Spain and Asia are severely hit

How come Wuhan is suddenly free from the deadly virus?

China says that the drastic initial measures that they took were very stern and Wuhan was locked down to contain the spread to other areas

Why Beijing was not hit ? Why only Wuhan?

It is interesting to ponder upon.. right ?

Well ..Wuhan is open for business now

Covid - 19 needs to be seen in the backdrop of the arm twisting of China by USA in the trade war.

America and all the above mentioned countries are devastated financially

Soon American economy will collapse as planned by China.

China knows it cannot defeat America militarily as USA is at present the most powerful country in the world.

So use the virus...to cripple the economy and paralyse the nation and its defense capabilities.

Nancy Pelosi got a part in this.... to topple Trump.... ?

Lately President Trump has always been telling of how the great American economy was improving on all fronts and jobs were coming back to the USA

The only way to destroy his vision of making America great again is to create an Economic havoc.

Nancy Pelosi was unable to bring down Trump through impeachment.....so work along with China to destroy Trump by releasing a virus?

Wuhan's epidemic was a showcase.

At the peak of the virus epidemic....China's President Xi Jinping wore a simple RM1 facemask to visit those effected areas.

As President he should have been covered from head to toe but that was not the case.

He was already injected to resist any harm from the virus that means a cure was already in place before the virus was released

China's vision is to control the World Economy by buying up stocks now from countries facing the brink of severe Economic Collapse. Later China will announce that their Medical Researchers have found a cure to destroy the virus.

Now China shall own the stocks of All Western Alliances and these countries will soon be slave to their new master..... CHINA

COVID 19 Another Conspiracy Theory Or Well Played CHINA (https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/covid-19-another-conspiracy-theory-or-well-played-china.658323/)

[FenceFurniture]

The Guardian blog (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/28/coronavirus-live-news-cases-in-italy-overtake-china-us-infections-pass-100000) is a pretty good roundup of events as the unfold around the world.

Some excerpts from it:
All migrants in Portugal will be treated as permanent residents until 1 July to ensure they have access to public services during the coronavirus outbreak, Reuters reports.

From probably the worst non-statesperson leader:
“Some people are going to die,” Bolsonaro said on Friday. “That’s life.”
“You can’t shut down a car factory because people die in traffic accidents,” Bolsonaro added.

Social distancing, as demonstrated by migrant workers in India (pic by Bhuvan Bagga/AFP via Getty Images:
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[Greg Ward]

Been reading the discussion for a period.
We have a range of members, some have been high flying executives, some teachers, a lot in IT, some sole traders, many retired. None have had to manage a small or large country as far as I am aware
What is interesting to me is the different attitudes of the armchair critics.
And the measured comments or absence of comments from those who have had to manage a business or been involved in crisis management.

[FenceFurniture]

You have to wonder if the various cruise ships still at sea are going to wind up like the MS St Louis as portrayed in The Voyage Of The Damned (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MS_St._Louis#The_%22Voyage_of_the_Damned%22). I would not like to be aboard one of those giant incubators.


This link to Johns Hopkins (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html) shows the world in graphic detail with a few tweakable controls. The USA and Europe appear to be basket cases. Just adding up the European cases, and just Italy, Spain, Germany, France account for over 260,000 cases and 18,752 deaths. Germany, whilst having a large number of cases at 57,695 has a very low number of deaths at 433.

[doug3030]

None have had to manage a small or large country as far as I am aware
What is interesting to me is the different attitudes of the armchair critics.

Well I have never been personally responsible for managing a country. But having been an Intelligence Analyst for 20 years, I have personally briefed the Prime Minister and Cabinet and the Chiefs of the Armed Forces of Australia on matters of national and international importance. I have also forwarded Intelligence Reports that I have written to heads of Allied Governments throughout the world, including the big ones. I have therefore had substantial input into the decision-making process. There's more goes on behind the scenes than most people would think.

[Tccp123]

Been reading the discussion for a period.
We have a range of members, some have been high flying executives, some teachers, a lot in IT, some sole traders, many retired. None have had to manage a small or large country as far as I am aware
What is interesting to me is the different attitudes of the armchair critics.
And the measured comments or absence of comments from those who have had to manage a business or been involved in crisis management.


In all fairness to myself I did nominate BobL for PM last week but there wasn't a lot of support...

[Beardy]

That's a fair point, but going to the footy and delaying measures to do so was really bloody dopey - it was a terrible look. As was the Chief Medical Officer shaking hands with journos in the green room before Insiders two weeks ago (was commented upon by the same journos at the time).

Certainly I think SmirKo's performance is now significantly better than his bushfire response. He just needs to react quicker and stronger with lockdowns and the like. Those sorts of decisions should be in the control of the most senior (unelected) health professionals who have the nouse, not politicians who crave to be loved and who may or may not follow the best public health advice they are given.

Yes I have to say Schomo was not real flash during our recent fire crisis but think his last couple of addresses to the nation have been substantially better, he has spoken clearly and given reasons for his decisions and sounded like he has a handle on the situation
Whether that is the case or not will soon be apparent but the perception is much better than the bushfire fiasco

[FenceFurniture]

Even though death rate figures are flawed (because the case rate is very rubbery), the worldwide figure is 4.65% (30,780 D and 662,073 C). That's seems extraordinarily high considering, IIRC, figures of 1-2% were suggested. Maybe there are a helluva lot more cases than 662,073.

Death rates in no particular order:
Germany 0.75%
USA 1.75%
Italy 10.84%
Spain 8.17%
France 6.08%
Australia 0.38%

So unless the USA is covering up deaths (hardly likely, and probably impossible), their rate is not nearly as bad as Europe. Another 7 days might show more reliable trends.

[Bushmiller]

However with residential, those that are forced to sell their owner-occupied homes (or are foreclosed upon) will still need somewhere to live, and so can take up some of the slack in residential rental properties. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if vacancy rates went down (some) in a recession, not accounting for the poor souls that end up homeless.

Brett

That is why I mentioned that banks should give space on the mortgage aspect. They are the one group that can be assured of recovering their money eventually. As I said, extend the mortgage to give relief during the troubled times. I would mention that it may need the government to legislate and then the question arises as to whether they will do that in a reasonable period of time.

Regards
Paul

[Beardy]

I agree with you Bushmiller and likewise you hear criticism of the gubberment providing financial assistance to the big end of town and our airlines but just like the banks, it is in the public’s interest that these companies are still around after the crisis so that there are jobs for us to go to and we have a base to grow the economy off again

[BobL]

I see the authorities have recently been touting the reduction in the rate of growth of cases from 25-30% down to 13-15%.

Firstly I don't think any "rate of case growth" is worth much given our 8000/million testing rate but I guess its better than nothing.

Then while its great to see the case rate going down, a 27% growth rate sees a doubling of cases every 3 days, whereas 14% is still a doubling rate of 5.4 days.

IMHO 14% is still too fast a doubling rate to make practical changes and then hope it will have an effect. The wait and see method has a chance of working when the doubling rate is greater than the max time step that is trying to be assessed. If the virus has a max incubation period of 14 days, that translates into a <5% growth rate of cases. Until the growth rate is reduced to <5% it would seem prudent to do the most one can. It's far easier to ease off a brake action once you know you know you are definitely going to stop before you hit a tree, than to try and wing it with gentle taps on the brake, especially given the lack of taking this serioulsy by a sizeable proportion of the general public.

[ian]

Brett

That is why I mentioned that banks should give space on the mortgage aspect. They are the one group that can be assured of recovering their money eventually. As I said, extend the mortgage to give relief during the troubled times. I would mention that it may need the government to legislate and then the question arises as to whether they will do that in a reasonable period of time.
well CommBank has already made an "accommodation"

"Defer your [mortgage] repayments

Home loan customers requesting financial assistance during this time will be able to defer their repayments for 6 months, with interest and fees added to their home loan and loan term extended."


not sure about the other banks -- i.e. I can't be bothered to look up each of them -- but deferring payments for 6 months to me seems reasonable.
It will depend on what further accommodations are made after 6 months.


Not sure if the banks are still smarting from the Royal Commission fall out or if they are just being pragmatic. No one, least of all the mortgage insurers, wants to see approximately 1,000,000 mortgage defaults.



so in one sense, the big banks have acted without the need for the Government to legislate

Evidence of the market working??

[Bushmiller]

This, I think, is going to be a little bit of a round up on my own perspective on the situation. The first question (rhetorical) is why this pandemic has created so much more reaction/panic than any other that has gone before. The Spanish flu, for example, in 1918 infected over 500 million people and killed between 17 million and 50 million people (an indication of the lack of accurate reporting and probably a level of despair as that pandemic spiralled out of control): Clearly much worse than we have experienced so far with Covid-19, which is not to say that we will not to get to that stage(we may). Well:



We today, compared to 1918, have an extensive communications network so everybody is aware. Graphic scenes can trigger the imagination and horrify the mind with ease.
Despite our medical advancements, which have been huge, there is no vaccine. Think immediate panic as there is a vaccine for the majority of severe, contagious illnesses today.
We are used to emergency patients being able to receive immediate and appropriate treatment. The prospect of that not being available is too horrible to contemplate for many.
There is a distinct impression held by many people that various governments (not just Australia) have been slow to act and reluctant to make difficult decisions until public pressure has shamed them into action.It is clear that some countries have taken action while Australia has procrastinated and drummed up pathetic excuses as to why they should or should not take a particular course of action.


As to the virus Covid-19 itself:



One disturbing aspect is that this particular strain is insidious.
Relatively little is known about it and much of that is really only being gleaned from the episodes already acted out in the first countries to be infected (China, Italy, Spain and now the US)
The worst may still be to come with the virus likely to rampage through India and some other Asian countries. Arguably their sheer number and lack of commensurate facilities may be completely unable to stem the virus and allowing it to ravaging the populace (that is my take, nothing to back that up at all: Hoping I am wrong)
Several aspects are particularly insidious. Some people are carriers but display no symptoms or discomfort. They become "sleepers" or more likely "time-bombs."
We don't really know the incubation periods or the infectious periods. Much is still guesswork, although that may become more informed as time goes on and numbers of cases can be examined and categorised.
We do know it interferes potentially quite seriously with the respiratory tract and those with any existing history in that area are particularly vulnerable. Inevitably this tends towards older people, but not exclusively. The youngest person in my work group is 34 years and he may be the most at risk (asthmatic ). So no cause for complete complacency there.
Out of people infected with the virus around 15% will present with severe symptoms that require hospitalisation and specialist care and overall around 4% may die, but there is a wide range of death rates between different countries. This is partly due to reporting methods (including actual cases of infection) as well as health facilities. Initial symptoms are a dry cough and a fever, which in the more severe cases can lead to breathing difficulties and pneumonia. There may be other symptoms, but this appears to be variable and not everybody presents the same.


What action are individuals taking?



The virus is spread primarily (and as far as we know) by two means. The first is direct moisture particles from an infected person either by coughing or sneezing directly onto another person. The way to counteract this is to stay a distance away. 1.5m has been recommended. I suspect that to be absolutely safe it should be at least 3m.
The second method of transmission is indirect. In this case the infected person deposits an infected fluid onto a surface (by coughing, sneezing or wiping their hands) that is later touched by another person. In this way the infection is carried to another. All it then needs is for the second person to touch their face near the mouth or nose or maybe the eyes and bingo: You've got it. Hence the recommendation to keep washing your hands particularly if you are in an area that is being touched by other people and, to quote a phrase, you don't know where they have been.


There are some pieces of information out there that are incorrect, mythical or unproven. We just don't know.



The virus does not survive well in hot conditions. Nothing to support that claim as yet.
Drinking water every fifteen minutes flushes the virus into the gastrointestinal tract where it can't survive. Completely unproven.
Children are unaffected by the virus. They do seem to be generally less prone to it, but not completely immune.


I am sure there is more that can be added to all of the above so please don't be shy in coming forward. (Nothing in the preceding 58 pages to indicate there is any level of reticence. :rolleyes:)

Regards
Paul

Edit: I should have added that another symptom (in conjunction with a dry cough and fever) is a sore throat. A further worrying aspect of the virus is how easily it is transmitted.

[BobL]

Some more cockups

Leaving the cruise sips to one side.

Scomo not willing to Offend DT?
Coronavirus circulating in the US in January, Australian travel ban too late (https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coronavirus-circulating-in-the-us-in-january-australian-travel-ban-too-late-20200327-p54el1.html)

Medical people thinking they're exempt from Quarantine
'&#39;'They haven'&#39;'t listened'&#39;': Medical professionals skipped quarantine and flew interstate (https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/they-haven-t-listened-medical-professionals-skipped-quarantine-and-flew-interstate-20200328-p54esp.html)

Letting tones of PPE leave Australia prior to the epidemic
Coronavirus Australia: Chinese owned property developer Risland flies more than 82 tonnes of medical supplies to Wuhan (https://www.smh.com.au/national/second-developer-flies-82-tonnes-of-medical-supplies-to-china-20200326-p54e8n.html)
Don't blame the Chinese for this, WhereTF are our export authorities?

[doug3030]

Some more cockups ...

... Letting tones of PPE leave Australia prior to the epidemic
Coronavirus Australia: Chinese owned property developer Risland flies more than 82 tonnes of medical supplies to Wuhan (https://www.smh.com.au/national/second-developer-flies-82-tonnes-of-medical-supplies-to-china-20200326-p54e8n.html)
Don't blame the Chinese for this, WhereTF are our export authorities?

Anyone know how much of that was made in China in the first place?

[Fekit]

The virus is spread primarily (and as far as we know) by two means. The first is direct moisture particles from an infected person either by coughing or sneezing directly onto another person. The way to counteract this is to stay a distance away. 1.5m has been recommended. I suspect that to be absolutely safe it should be at least 3m.

The virus has an average size of about 100nm. That means the virus can be suspended in the atmosphere indefinitely. I imagine that any ejecta from a person would have a distribution on particle sizes ranging from around 100nm to booger sized. I'm not saying there would be heaps, just not none.

[GraemeCook]

SWMBO has been making some masks for kids and I asked for one with the same front design hoping it might persuade eedjets to steer clear.
Do I look suitably rabid/infected enough?
470606



Add some spiral lenses to your spectacles and you will put the issue beyond doubt !

470649

[GraemeCook]

https://www.woodworkforums.com/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Lappa https://www.woodworkforums.com/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (https://www.woodworkforums.com/f43/coronavirus-empty-shelves-233039-post2179895#post2179895)


Leased the Darwin Port - not sold




For 99 years - as good as sold really......


How long was the British lease on Hong Kong?

[Lappa]

If you live in NSW ......................:lockd::?

[doug3030]

How long was the British lease on Hong Kong?

Not long enough apparently

[ian]

How long was the British lease on Hong Kong?
99 years

when the lease was about 5 years away from renewal the UK Government Minister -- I don't recall which one -- completely dropped the ball and essentially promised China that the lease wouldn't be renewed.



There is something in English -- and by extension Australian -- common law that treats a lease longer than 99 years as a permanent territorial acquisition

[Tonyz]

hopefully my last comment on this thread

[Lappa]

Any decent a$#e would reject that toilet paper

[GraemeCook]

I agree with you Bushmiller and likewise you hear criticism of the gubberment providing financial assistance to the big end of town and our airlines but just like the banks, it is in the public’s interest that these companies are still around after the crisis ...


I can see strong social arguments for assisting our regional airlines, and possibly Qantas, but I fail to see why any charity should be extended to Virgin Australia.

Virgin Australia is over 90% foreign owned and largely by foreign governments whose pockets are far deeper than the Australian Governments.

Ownership of Virgin Australia
20.94% Etihad Airways - Owned by Government of Abu Dhabi
20.09% Singapore Airlines - Majority ownership (56%) plus “golden share” owned by Singapore Government.
19.98% Nanshan Group - Ownership is rather murky, but “…Nanshan (Corporation) is effectively the government of Nanshan (City of 150,000)…”.
19.82% HNA Group - Owned by Hainan Provincial Government
10.42% Virgin Group - British private company founded by Richard Branson.
8.75% ASX - Publicly listed shares.
Source: Virgin Australia Holdings - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_Australia_Holdings)

[GraemeCook]

well CommBank has already made an "accommodation"

"Defer your [mortgage] repayments

Home loan customers requesting financial assistance during this time will be able to defer their repayments for 6 months, with interest and fees added to their home loan and loan term extended."
......

I am also watching to see how this plays out, Ian. Basically banks have said that they will capitalise interest for three months, review each client, and then perhaps capitalise for another three months. Then different banks will either adjust montly repayment amount or extend the length of the loan. Unclear if they will charge fees for this "service".

But mortgage loans exist in a dynamic market; it is ever changing.

It might be relevant to compare to what happenned after the GFC.

Prior to the GFC the commercial mortgage rate for a most favoured client with a debt equity ratio of better than 70% might be 9%. This means that they would give the loan up to $700,000 on a $1,000,000 at prime.

Immediately after the GFC the banks reviewed their risk template and deemed that a debt:equity ratio of 60% was required for prime. So the client with 70% D/E would be charged a risk margin of, say, 1% - his interest rate would rise to 10%.

Then they got all collateral revalued and (secretly) directed "independent" valuers to value conservatively in these volatile times. That $1mill property would now be valued at, say, $850,000 and the $700,000 loan woud mean a D/E of 82.4%. They would again reassess the rish exposure, add another risk premium and the interest rate might rise to 12%.

These figures are very close to actual cases. I expect that bank customers will start experiencing mortgage shock and pain in about six months time.

[BobL]

The virus has an average size of about 100nm. That means the virus can be suspended in the atmosphere indefinitely. I imagine that any ejecta from a person would have a distribution on particle sizes ranging from around 100nm to booger sized. I'm not saying there would be heaps, just not none.

The further away you can stay the better - Id recommend 100m if you can. That's what I target when we go to the park with the dogs.

The majority of air borne viruses do indeed ride primarily on a substrate, goober, water droplets, hair, skin flakes, clothing fibres etc.
Larger substrates can carry more virus and VV
There are relatively very few lone viruses out there in the general public and the other significant factor is just like air molecules and very fine dust, lone viruses are so small they will pass right though even a P3 mask, be breathed in and then be breathed straight back out. This is why we don't concern ourselves too much with <0.3 micron dust.
The likelihood of infection by any direct airborne transport is much less that hand transfer and then touching your face.

Risk of infection amongst other things depends on total viral load uptake - the more viruses taken aboard the greater the risk. That's why medical staff at the front line are at such high risk - they are constant surrounded by virus carriers and why those most at risk wear full face air respirators.
The majority of Virus carriers will range in size from a few microns upwards.
Most substrates will be in the >10 micron range which carry the greater viral load but also fall out of suspension rapidly both in terms of time and distance. The half residence time in the air will vary from <1 second (1m) for the larger ones carrying more virus, to a minute or two for the lighter ones carrying less viral load.

All this is why Social Distancing of any kind matters. Let's say you are cycling in a close peloton and the lead rider coughs - chances of following riders copping a fair size gobby in the face are higher if the peloton is close packed, less so if they're spaced out. Same with crowds etc. The chances of being infected by touching a virus ladened droplet on a surface and then touching ones face is much greater than breathing said goby in directly. This is why washing hands and surfaces is more significant for the non-infected person than a mask and why anyone with a suspected infection should wear a mask.

None the less if you want to gain that extra % or two of lefty then a P2 or even simple surgical masks will also increase safety. They don't have to be full face air respirators to eliminate the bigger carriers. Even a bandana will usually stop a booger.

[NeilS]

Now the more important part. Here's a YouTube link that talks about "the numbers", specifically the exaggeration of them. This is something that has crossed my mind many times in the past two weeks. It also talks about why this might be being done. This sounds a little bit too much like a conspiracy theory to me but you be the judge. It's not overly long...

YouTube (https://youtu.be/xbEHEzEEHJ8)

OK, I watched that video and also looked up the guy on Wiki (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vernon_Coleman). I invariably do that to get my own perspective on the author before investing any of my time on them. I was highly dubious about looking at the video after reading about him on Wiki, but did so anyway and here is my judgement:



This video is a self-promotional video, which becomes increasingly obvious by the end of it.
He has no credibility on the topic, having not practiced medicine for almost 40 years and was only ever a GP and with no specific qualifications in the fields of epidemiology, virology or immunology.
He is a self-publisher (of 100 books) as no publisher will do so. That sends off a flashing light for me.
He has been censured by various formal bodies and organisations, including the British Medical Journal.
He is full of conspiracy theories himself (on "hidden agendas"), but IMO I would't elevate him to the status of a conspiracy theorist as his efforts seem to be too shambolic to deserve that status. IMO (again) many topics he covers in the video have no relevance to his assertion that the 'CV-19 scare [is] the hoax of the century'.
Choosing my words carefully here; he will probably make an extra quid while people are casting around for answers in these uncertain times.

He states that if the death toll from Covid-19 is not above 50,000 worldwide by mid-April then his assertion that the figures on the virus have been exaggerated will have been proven and that this will be because of the various 'hidden agendas' he has exposed. I hope that he is right on just that one matter (ie <50k deaths), but with it is already at 30,000 I fear he will be wrong on that too.

Summary: I would not recommend anyone waste a valuable 12 minutes of their time watching this video.

[GraemeCook]

Something to help anyone who may feel that they have been cyberbullied .....


Do you mean by you, or by other people?

[BobL]

Latest production run of son's 3D printed Visor headbands for a local kids hospital.

Can print two at a time and it takes about an hour to do this.
Slow, but every bit helps.

470663

[doug3030]

Do you mean by you, or by other people?

After the number of PM's I got last night thanking me for calling it out for what it was you have to ask?

[FenceFurniture]

Summary: I would not recommend anyone waste a valuable 12 minutes of their time watching this video.Thank you Neil, you have done two valuable things: you saved each of us who have not watched it 12 minutes, and some download bandwidth, but more importantly (much more) you have denied the vid guy some oxygen because hits might earn him money.

[Tccp123]

OK, I watched that video and also looked up the guy on Wiki (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vernon_Coleman). I invariably do that to get my own perspective on the author before investing any of my time on them. I was highly dubious about looking at the video after reading about him on Wiki, but did so anyway and here is my judgement:



This video is a self-promotional video, which becomes increasingly obvious by the end of it.
He has no credibility on the topic, having not practiced medicine for almost 40 years and was only ever a GP and with no specific qualifications in the fields of epidemiology, virology or immunology.
He is a self-publisher (of 100 books) as no publisher will do so. That sends off a flashing light for me.
He has been censured by various formal bodies and organisations, including the British Medical Journal.
He is full of conspiracy theories himself (on "hidden agendas"), but IMO I would't elevate him to the status of a conspiracy theorist as his efforts seem to be too shambolic to deserve that status. IMO (again) many topics he covers in the video have no relevance to his assertion that the 'CV-19 scare [is] the hoax of the century'.
Choosing my words carefully here; he will probably make an extra quid while people are casting around for answers in these uncertain times.

He states that if the death toll from Covid-19 is not above 50,000 worldwide by mid-April then his assertion that the figures on the virus have been exaggerated will have been proven and that this will be because of the various 'hidden agendas' he has exposed. I hope that he is right on just that one matter (ie <50k deaths), but with it is already at 30,000 I fear he will be wrong on that too.

Summary: I would not recommend anyone waste a valuable 12 minutes of their time watching this video.

While absolutely respecting Neil's right to his view I hope his opinionated prose doesn't put anyone off just viewing this. After following this thread for 878 posts what's another 12 minutes? There is no self promotion, at the end he just suggests you visit his website which is free and ad free. I didn't visit it. He doesn't proclaim any medical expertise (in fact I didn't even realise he was a doctor till Neil mentioned it). It's about the numbers (and no he doesn't claim to be a statistician either :).

[FenceFurniture]

CAVEAT: Any figures worked around the number of cases, such as the death rate, have several reasons why they are rubbery, as we have previously discussed (so I won't repeat what they are).

I have done a little Excel work with some of the figures from the Johns Hopkins site (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html), and some interesting things (for me anyway) have come out of it. Firstly here is a screenshot of today's figures, sorted 3 different ways. On the left is # cases descending, middle is # deaths (not death rate) descending, and right is population infection rate (cases/pop%).

Notes:

white text on red is the worst example, white on magenta is next worst, followed by paler pink. Yellow represents the better examples.
I was going to talk about 1000+ cases as the cut-off, but as you will see, <2000 cases yields skewed results, so the cut-off in future will be 2000 cases.
Johns Hopkins talks about recoveries, but eventually they will equal cases minus deaths, and they have a long way to go. Only China appears to be near the end of the cycle (which is pretty encouraging in itself, if it can be trusted....)
If there is interest I will be happy to post a summary every 2 or 3 days (every 3 probably makes the best sense)
I may well add a "Continent" field, for another sort. (and I would expect Antarctica to be the world leader of success! :U)


470664


Now Bob, as our resident mathematician/statistics guy might have some valuable input here, so please feel free to say so Bob. These are just my observations of these figures. There are a few different stats that could be added to give this more meaning (such as poverty rates, international travel rates, pop density, and so on) but that's just getting on for a bit too much research....:no:



The number of deaths is pretty much in the same order as the death rates, particularly at the bad end and especially if you take what I would think are dodgy China stats.
The total population of the countries with 2000+ cases is approx equal to the 1000 to 2000 bracket population (this is only for the moment though)
WRT only 2000+ cases, the totals for that category for cases, deaths, death rate are more or less the same as for the total world population (blue figures). The population infection rate is very different though.
European countries are streaking away with Pop Infection Rate (10 of the worst 11 spots)
By next Wednesday I expect virtually all of the 1000-2000 case countries to be included in 2000+.
Look at Japan's astonishing figures, considering their population and proximity to China!
Taiwan, with its 23.82 mill pop, 283 cases and 2 deaths is never going to get on that list! Death rate is 0.71%, PIR is 0.0012% which will in time become the lowest rate of all, I suspect
Forget India's numbers at the moment, they will explode.
I also expect figures from Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, Philippines, Pakistan to deteriorate badly and rapidly. Maybe even Russia.... if they tell the truth.
WRT only 2000+ cases, Australia is almost at the bottom of deaths and death rate, and not far off that for Pop Inf Rate. This might change, but that gives me quite some hope that we are doing pretty well.


*I have just noticed that some of the colour coding is wrong so I will fix it, and upload again.

[FenceFurniture]

While absolutely respecting Neil's right to his view I hope his opinionated prose doesn't put anyone off just viewing this.Well I respect Neil's view too, but I also trust it. He has access to an expert who is DNA linked to him (which means no bullsh). So no, I'm not going to give oxygen or a click to some guy that you seem to think might be a bit conspiratorial. It doesn't matter if you watch it for a second or 12 minutes, it still counts as a click, and therefore oxygen and possibly $$.

[doug3030]

He has access to an expert who is DNA linked to him (which means no bullsh).

What does that actually mean?

[Beardy]

I can see strong social arguments for assisting our regional airlines, and possibly Qantas, but I fail to see why any charity should be extended to Virgin Australia.

Virgin Australia is over 90% foreign owned and largely by foreign governments whose pockets are far deeper than the Australian Governments.

Ownership of Virgin Australia
20.94% Etihad Airways - Owned by Government of Abu Dhabi
20.09% Singapore Airlines - Majority ownership (56%) plus “golden share” owned by Singapore Government.
19.98% Nanshan Group - Ownership is rather murky, but “…Nanshan (Corporation) is effectively the government of Nanshan (City of 150,000)…”.
19.82% HNA Group - Owned by Hainan Provincial Government
10.42% Virgin Group - British private company founded by Richard Branson.
8.75% ASX - Publicly listed shares.
Source: Virgin Australia Holdings - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_Australia_Holdings)

but it is not about who owns a company it is about how much they contribute to our economy. Virgin employs about 10,000 Aussies directly and then there are all the other businesses that provide services to them so the number for that business alone staying viable in Australia could easily be in the order of 50,000 jobs

[Tccp123]

What does that actually mean?

Hahaha! I was typing that exact same question when I spotted your post!

[Tccp123]

but it is not about who owns a company it is about how much they contribute to our economy. Virgin employs about 10,000 Aussies directly and then there are all the other businesses that provide services to them so the number for that business alone staying viable in Australia could easily be in the order of 50,000 jobs

Thankfully there are a few here who have a grasp of economics! Thank you!

[Tccp123]

The question:

https://www.woodworkforums.com/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by FenceFurniture https://www.woodworkforums.com/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (https://www.woodworkforums.com/f43/coronavirus-empty-shelves-233039-post2180115#post2180115)
He has access to an expert who is DNA linked to him (which means no bullsh).

The question was what does "He has access to an expert who is DNA linked to him" exactly mean?

[Fekit]

The further away you can stay the better

I shan't quote your whole post. But that was what I was pretty much banging on about.

[BobL]

I know I have quoted more than enough stats in my posts but stats for many countries still have to be treated with skepticism.

Taiwan is politically motivated always to have rates less than China.
Japan wanted to hold onto the Olympics so probably fudged its numbers, but now it cannot lose face. Anyway their rates are now increasing.
No country wants to be over reporting deaths for a wide range of reasons. Some countries like Iran, China and even the two above (or many others for that matter) may only be reporting pneumonic COVID19 deaths. If the deceased dies of kidney or heart failure brought by COVID19 are they being reported as a COVD19 death? Possibly not.
There are people dying in 3rd world countries in gutters and back alleys and these will not be counted.
The US testing data is highly unreliable.

Anyway, I like the latest government moves, just wished they'd done it sooner. The one other I wish they would have stomped on is, family groups going to shopping centres or supermarkets. I can understand an adult supervising kids might need to go but not two+ adults and a bunch of kids. Surely the spare adults can stay behind and supervise the kids.

[Bushmiller]

I can see strong social arguments for assisting our regional airlines, and possibly Qantas, but I fail to see why any charity should be extended to Virgin Australia.

Virgin Australia is over 90% foreign owned and largely by foreign governments whose pockets are far deeper than the Australian Governments.

Ownership of Virgin Australia
20.94% Etihad Airways - Owned by Government of Abu Dhabi
20.09% Singapore Airlines - Majority ownership (56%) plus “golden share” owned by Singapore Government.
19.98% Nanshan Group - Ownership is rather murky, but “…Nanshan (Corporation) is effectively the government of Nanshan (City of 150,000)…”.
19.82% HNA Group - Owned by Hainan Provincial Government
10.42% Virgin Group - British private company founded by Richard Branson.
8.75% ASX - Publicly listed shares.
Source: Virgin Australia Holdings - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_Australia_Holdings)

Graeme

As some others have mentioned Virgin does employ many (don't know exactly how many) Aussies and that is good. I guess it is a shame that it is not Australian owned, but that is true of so many Aussie icons (Arnott's as an example) and more a subject for another thread as we have plenty of digressions as it is. I might lean towards assisting people more than corporations as I would expect that to reach the people most needy. Possibly the galling aspect of foreign ownership is that they have not paid their share of tax, but still want a handout (see I got drawn into a digression. Disregard that comment)

As an aside I have just overheard on the TV in the other room that further restrictions on numbers of people outside are being imposed (think I heard two) and some bans on evicting tenants.

Regards
Paul

[NeilS]

While absolutely respecting Neil's right to his view I hope his opinionated prose doesn't put anyone off just viewing this.

...

There is no self promotion, at the end he just suggests you visit his website which is free and ad free.



And I also respect your rights to your opinions on this forum, Tccp.

Apologies if you found my prose (too) opinionated. I was just responding to your invitation to make my own judgement on the video. I acknowledge you didn't invite us to share that judgement here, but having invested the time to look at the video I felt I owed forum members (including yourself) my response.

As for the claim by Coleman that his website is 'add free', what would be more correct is that there are no paid adds on his website. However, the first button on his homepage links to his very extensive self-publications list and is headed:


[B]New Books by Vernon Coleman - all available as eBooks and paperbacks on Amazon


That's an add by any other name. In my opinion, Coleman's own agenda is not very well hidden and not worth any more of my time.

[FenceFurniture]

The question was what does "He has access to an expert who is DNA linked to him" exactly mean?Well Neil has only been posting in this thread for a short while, and doesn't have that many posts, so it shouldn't be to hard rediscover it, if you haven't remembered what he has said.

Edit: word omission typo.

[Tccp123]

W-T-F! "so it shouldn't be to rediscover it, if you haven't remembered what he has said."

I'm not even going to go there...

[FenceFurniture]

The one other I wish they would have stomped on is, family groups going to shopping centres or supermarkets. I can understand an adult supervising kids might need to go but not two+ adults and a bunch of kids. Surely the spare adults can stay behind and supervise the kids.Eeee, I think you might find it's a way of getting around purchasing limits of 2 loaves, 1 bumroll etc.

[FenceFurniture]

W-T-F! "so it shouldn't be to rediscover it, if you haven't remembered what he has said."

I'm not even going to go there...Oopsie! Missed a word. Fixed now.

[doug3030]

Well Neil has only been posting in this thread for a short while, and doesn't have that many posts, so it shouldn't be to hard rediscover it, if you haven't remembered what he has said.

Edit: word omission typo.

Proofreading really is a dying art.

[Tccp123]

Does anyone actually know anyone with the Corona Virus?

[Tccp123]

Mmmm.... five minutes - no answers