CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[Cgcc]

You're kind of presenting two caricatures. Life isn't like an Ayn Rand novel where people fall into two categories of either noble productive members of society or moochers. You can find example but many people are in the middle. There are hard-working, decent people who just don't have much, and lazy assholes who have gotten lucky or inherited money.

Unfortunately when you have in your head that there are all these "Case A" types, you tend to only see that.

For many people it's a mixed bag. I'm self-employed and run a small business. But on the other hand, I have fixed employees (employed indirectly through a services company with others) and will never need more because of the nature of my work. If you gave me a stimulus package I wouldn't change my behaviour. It'd probably just go on my fixed expenses which aren't going away over the next few months no matter what happens. The economy would probably be better off objectively if the money went to someone on the dole who spent it in local businesses.

[FenceFurniture]

The economy would probably be better off objectively if the money went to someone on the dole who spent it in local businesses.Indeed. The stimulus isn't designed to benefit the recipient - it's to benefit the businesses that they patronise, which helps keep their employees working, which means the Govt gets income tax instead of paying out more unemployment benefits. Very simple economics really, and only requires a modicum of thought.

[FenceFurniture]

There is a very good reason why $750 won't be going out until March 31st, and it's part political and part "crowd control" for want of a better expression. It means that it will be spent in the second quarter which will boost GDP in that quarter. The presumption is that the current quarter is going to be -ve growth, so stack it up with negativity and try to keep the next quarter +ve.

That way, a technical recession is avoided (at least for the time being) which means that Smirko can beat his political chest (the part political reason) but also more importantly keep us in a mindset we we don't have to live through a recession - because they are essentially a state of mind brought on by a loss of confidence. The stock market is just the same - confidence/herd mentality driven.

[FenceFurniture]

Do you honestly believe all those people we've seen assaulting old people in the supermarkets fighting over toilet rolls are "the wealthy"?What old people being assaulted? I've not heard of any. We've all seen the edited footage of those dickheads fighting over bumroll. We never did see what the start of that ridiculous scene was - what did the single person do to the selfish mother and daughter in the first place, if anything? Did she just walk over to their trolley and try to take a packet out. All unknown, and none of them would be classified as old.

[Tccp123]

You're kind of presenting two caricatures. Life isn't like an Ayn Rand novel where people fall into two categories of either noble productive members of society or moochers. You can find example but many people are in the middle. There are hard-working, decent people who just don't have much, and lazy assholes who have gotten lucky or inherited money.

Unfortunately when you have in your head that there are all these "Case A" types, you tend to only see that.

For many people it's a mixed bag. I'm self-employed and run a small business. But on the other hand, I have fixed employees (employed indirectly through a services company with others) and will never need more because of the nature of my work. If you gave me a stimulus package I wouldn't change my behaviour. It'd probably just go on my fixed expenses which aren't going away over the next few months no matter what happens. The economy would probably be better off objectively if the money went to someone on the dole who spent it in local businesses.

Yes of course I understand there are different scenarios but if I was to try to cover them all it would be ridiculous so I've limited my examples to caricatures as you have correctly identified. Essentially that is to pick out extremes of each example. Essentially the question is if this was the choice who would you pick? And the answer (so far) seems to be the moochers who will spend it on themselves (buying from the bottleshop owners, corporate supermarket owners, travel agents etc. the very people you say you wouldn't give it to) vs. the Case B who may spend it on buying more employees who would benefit more and spread the money wider.

[FenceFurniture]

the moochers who will spend it on themselves (buying from the bottleshop owners, corporate supermarket owners, travel agents etc. the very people you say you wouldn't give it to)I think that says more about a certain attitude than it does about the people you "describe". Maybe fundamental economics isn't your go, but low income earners spending the money immediately is keeping people employed. Now is NOT the time to try to expand a business with more employees. Now is the time for businesses to try to survive as best they can.

So yeah, people should spend the money on themselves, whether they are unemployed, under-employed, disabled, old, or just moochers. The $750 is only available to welfare recipients and other people receiving Govt payments (6.5mill people).

[Cgcc]

I know some people who can be very lazy sometimes, and indeed a lot of the time, but I don't think it's helpful writing people off as "moochers". I know people who have jobs that just don't make much money, and (at my stage in life) often have young kids which means re-training or going back to uni just isn't an option.

Unless there is a miracle cure out of nowhere, this is an unprecedented issue and the economics are complicated. I think you missed the point of Case B. If they're given a stimulus they may not spend more because they're already spending what they need. The people who might spend money they wouldn't otherwise may be the people who have no choice.

Your Case B types might even end up better off, because if they can weather the storm they might be able to snatch up assets like shares and property when the price is low and make a killing, like some did during the GFC. Someone bought all the shares that were sold at the bottom of the market and then lurched back up.

I can understand the view about the morality of it all. But it's not the tale of the ant and the grasshopper. The point of a stimulus isn't to reward moral behaviour but avoid an even worse recession.

[BobL]

Back on topic.

Three days ago Australia had round 300 cases of COVID19, and it's well know the doubling rate appears to be ~3 days
OK its been 3 days and here we are today with 636 cases.

The numbers we see today are because of (a lack of) decisions made around 2 weeks ago.
Projecting that forward, unless something drastic is done today, in 2 weeks time we will have ~20,000 people with this virus.

I guess this is what we get when we let Pollies be in charge of a Public Medical Crisis.

[Tccp123]

What do you suggest as being "something drastic"

[44Ronin]

Crown still open, <yt-formatted-string force-default-style="" class="style-scope ytd-video-primary-info-renderer" style="word-break: break-word;">You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villany</yt-formatted-string>

[BobL]

Back on the 16th I wrote post #279 (https://www.woodworkforums.com/f43/coronavirus-empty-shelves-233039/19#post2178062)

To which I would add - no non-essential inter-regional travel (at least interstate travel) Tassie's already done this. This would protect some regions better than we are doing now.

[Tccp123]

Back on the 16th I wrote post #279 (https://www.woodworkforums.com/f43/coronavirus-empty-shelves-233039/19#post2178062)

To which I would add - no non-essential inter-regional travel (at least interstate travel) Tassie's already done this. This would protect some regions better than we are doing now.

Just had a look at your #279 post and yes it's drastic and yes I believe you're on the money.

[Tccp123]

BobL for PM!

[44Ronin]

Back on the 16th I wrote post #279 (https://www.woodworkforums.com/f43/coronavirus-empty-shelves-233039/19#post2178062)

To which I would add - no non-essential inter-regional travel (at least interstate travel) Tassie's already done this. This would protect some regions better than we are doing now.

We will see that the definition of non-essential gets stretched for those with affluence and money.

[BobL]

BobL for PM!

None of these suggestions are original - they all come from epidemiologists less tainted by political pressure.
It's a war and and until the pollies give the reins completely to the experts there will continue to be compromised decisions.
WA just had its biggest reported jump in numbers of (17) cases for one day and only 4 of these can be traced to overseas travellers - this means 13 are from community transmission.
"Road blocks on the state border on both ends of Highway 1" I say!

Wait - one day please :D - my "recovering from cancer bro" is, as I write, setting out from Melb to drive to WA.

[Beardy]

I really struggle to understand why people are judged/ categorised by their financial status. I have worked for all sorts of people from being on welfare to billionaires, some are A holes and others the nicest people you could meet and their financial status has had absolutely nothing to do with it.

Do people honestly believe that the more money you accumulate the worse you become as a human being? If you are an A hole and come into a bit of money you are then a rich A hole.......it is that simple

i dont understand why people who are already on some form of government assistance are part of this stimulus package, aren’t they already being catered for? Surely there are others who are losing their jobs etc who are going to be in far greater financial need that should be looked after. Or am I missing something?

[BobL]

We will see that the definition of non-essential gets stretched for those with affluence and money.

Yeah always a problem - that probably what's happened in Italy but we have start somewhere.
There's already been some talk about internal tourists, especially grey nomads, being prime carriers as well as potentially clogging up the regional hospitals.

[Tccp123]

I really struggle to understand why people are judged/ categorised by their financial status. I have worked for all sorts of people from being on welfare to billionaires, some are A holes and others the nicest people you could meet and their financial status has had absolutely nothing to do with it.

Do people honestly believe that the more money you accumulate the worse you become as a human being? If you are an A hole and come into a bit of money you are then a rich A hole.......it is that simple

i dont understand why people who are already on some form of government assistance are part of this stimulus package, aren’t they already being catered for? Surely there are others who are losing their jobs etc who are going to be in far greater financial need that should be looked after. Or am I missing something?

Nothing too mysterious about it, just plain old human envy. He's got more than me - not fair! It doesn't apply to everyone but it certainly applies to some. Why do they get the stimulus package? Because they have learnt to work the system. They manage to insinuate themselves among the genuinely needy whom no one would deny a helping hand.

Those who've lost their jobs and still need to pay the rent? Collateral damage...

[BobL]

I really struggle to understand why people are judged/ categorised by their financial status. I have worked for all sorts of people from being on welfare to billionaires, some are A holes and others the nicest people you could meet and their financial status has had absolutely nothing to do with it?

A few years back I asked my mate who has been a tree surgeon for about 40 years, who are the most difficult clients to get payments from and he said it's mostly from those who have too little or too much. The ones who have too little he has some sympathy, for but the ones who have too much he is quite disparaging about as they usually have no excuse and it's not like they paid any more. In fact they were usually very bargainers and usually paid less. When the financial climate was positive, and he had more work than he could poke a chainsaw at, for a while he even stopped performing tree surgery in some of the wealthier/riverside suburbs of Perth. Sorry, too busy mate.

Another mate who was a cabinet maker told me the same thing and several large jobs nearly sent him broke over dragged out non payments. He said the wealthier the clients were the longer it took to get the payments out of them.

[BobL]

Nothing too mysterious about it, just plain old human envy. He's got more than me - not fair! It doesn't apply to everyone but it certainly applies to some. Why do they get the stimulus package? Because they have learnt to work the system. They manage to insinuate themselves among the genuinely needy whom no one would deny a helping hand.

Those who've lost their jobs and still need to pay the rent? Collateral damage...

I agree but lets be careful we don't apply the same broad brush as the other blokes.
Amongst these so called "bludgers there are many many pensioners, sole parents, disabled and genuine cases that need to be treated with dignity and respect, and not derision.
Like wise I have every sympathy for the genuine small business owner who has given it a red hot go and has a large debt with a bank and this virus causes him to go belly up and I really do hope the pollies do something for them.

The quality of our society in these times will be judged by how well we treat those less fortunate than ourselves.

[forrestmount]

Reading through this thread tonight, I couldn’t help but ponder something.

We are handing out money at a time that some people seem to have a new toilet paper collection hobby.

You have to wonder if the release of the money will create more chaos. I hope those in charge have considered this outcome and don’t hand out all the money at once.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro

[BobL]

Well, after 6 odd weeks of significantly reduced worldwide industrial activity, especially in China, and more recently significant reductions in air transport, the measurements are starting to come in. ~20% reduction in NOx and ~25 % reduction in CO2. Plus fish appearing for the first time in decades in venetian canals! - although the locals say this is just cos the crud has settled out of the water so the fish can be seen.
It will be interesting to see the PM2.5 data when it becomes available (which BTW kills millions of people each year)
This all has to continue for some time to have a significant effect but maybe the net death rate from COVID-19 will not be as much as we thought? :D

[Tccp123]

"~25 % reduction in CO2"

I'll be watching closely as the temperature drops :-)

[FenceFurniture]

You have to wonder if the release of the money will create more chaos. I hope those in charge have considered this outcome and don’t hand out all the money at once. It's from March 31st, so it won't be all at once. With a bit of luck the panic buying & hording will settle down when people start seeing that they have clearly bought too much stuff and it is still being replenished on the shelves. Maybe a week or so.

[FenceFurniture]

I really struggle to understand why people are judged/ categorised by their financial status.Agreed. Some people just have a mindset about stigmatised groups.


i dont understand why people who are already on some form of government assistance are part of this stimulus package, aren’t they already being catered for? Surely there are others who are losing their jobs etc who are going to be in far greater financial need that should be looked after. Or am I missing something?As far as I know there are measures being put into place to help people who are losing their jobs - bearing in mind that the situation is extremely fluid, and with low viscosity to boot.

As far as people on welfare already being catered for - you might have to try living on unemployment benefits and paying rent to get a full understanding. How would your lifestyle be if you got ~$500 out of which you had to pay say $250 rent leaving $250 for everything else? The reason they are targeted for stimulus packages is because it is widely known that life on welfare means a frugal life, and any extra money that comes along gets spent almost immediately - which is exactly the goal of a stimulus.

[Kuffy]

i dont understand why people who are already on some form of government assistance are part of this stimulus package, aren’t they already being catered for? Surely there are others who are losing their jobs etc who are going to be in far greater financial need that should be looked after. Or am I missing something?

I'm not a financial genius, but I thought they were giving cash to those already supported by the system because they won't "need" the cash and therefore will buy themselves a new TV. It's seems to be the same idea behind cutting payroll tax for SME's and also giving small biz up to $25k. It's all about keeping business in business. If the government gave me $750, I would put it in the bank in case I lost my job. If I lost my job, well at least I have $750 to cover about 2 weeks worth of mortgage repayments, but paying back my mortgage doesn't prop up small biz.

[Tccp123]

Kuffy, do I recall you saying you hang our sometimes at Crown Casino?

[Kuffy]

Yeah, but no more than about 15 hours per week :D

[Tccp123]

Yeah, but no more than about 15 hours per week :D

Then can you confirm <yt-formatted-string force-default-style="" class="style-scope ytd-video-primary-info-renderer" style="word-break: break-word;">You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villany? :-)</yt-formatted-string>

[Kuffy]

Awww, that seems so mean. How about I say, on a Friday night, there are lots of people there to have a good time. However on a Tuesday morning at 3am.......ahhh ummmm...woops my internet cut out so I can't share my opinion of the "people" there at that time

[Tccp123]

Awww, that seems so mean. How about I say, on a Friday night, there are lots of people there to have a good time. However on a Tuesday morning at 3am.......ahhh ummmm...woops my internet cut out so I can't share my opinion of the "people" there at that time

I was quoting someone else so he may have been referring to the 3am crowd (which I'm sure you've only been told about :-). In any case I think I need to go and see myself!

[Kuffy]

In any case I think I need to go and see myself!

I'll just leave this here and make my way to the naughty corner :D
470160

[Simplicity]

I'll just leave this here and make my way to the naughty corner :D
470160

Make sure it’s been disinfected first, stand in the corner minimum 1500 mm from anyone else in there too please.

Cheers Matt

[Tccp123]

Back on track...

Did I read correctly today that we have had only six deaths in Australia? That's less than 1%?

[skot]

Yep 6 deaths on 568 cases...each death is a tragedy but compared to many other countries , our good health system seems to be coping and giving the critical ones every chance of surviving.

[BobL]

Back on track...

Did I read correctly today that we have had only six deaths in Australia? That's less than 1%?

Correct, Lots of countries have about the same number of cases but even less deaths.
eg Norway 1400/3 , Canada 560/1, Portugal 642/2
Low death rates calculated today are a result of deaths usually occurring about 2 weeks after infections.
So of the 300 new infections that are detected in the last 3 days those that will die from this will happen in about 2 weeks time.

To get a better indication we should be dividing total deaths today, by infection rate about two weeks ago which was only 66 infections - not looking so good now eh!

And as soon as you run out of ventilators, for serious case it takes off and its less than a week till death.

[Tccp123]

Correct, Lots of countries have ABOUT the same number of cases and even less deaths.
This is because deaths usually occur about 2 weeks after infections.
eg Norway 1400/3 , Canada 560/1, Portugal 642/2

And as soon as you run out of ventilators, for serious case it takes off and its less than a week till death.

So when do you estimate we'll see some serious numbers of deaths? Two weeks time?

[BobL]

So when do you estimate we'll see some serious numbers of deaths? Two weeks time?

Depends what you means by serious,
Germany had 349 cases 14 days ago and now have 13 deaths total ie death rate of. ~3%
if the "real" death rate is 3%, (like Germany) then in two weeks we should be seeing ~18 deaths a day.

Two weeks ago Australia had 66 infectees and today we have 5 deaths - that's a rate of 7.5% - ie not so good.

The numbers for Italy are scary weird - 2 weeks ago they only had 3100 infected and today have total of nearly 3000 deaths, that's a theoretic death rate of almost 100%
What this probably means is that a) they have not measured the real infections rates any where close to reality and b) they have run out of ventilators and are unfortunately leaving people over 60 to die. This means they die in a few days so the numbers that die greatly increases.
What we should be doing to get a death rate is comparing with numbers of infectees maybe 5 days ago, its still a high death rate.

Death rates strongly depends how well we can keep it out of nursing homes and retirement villages.
In Italy a lot of seniors live at home with their families
This is why I think it is completely daft for Aussie seniors to be going shopping en masse for sunny rolls like they have been.
And why seniors villages should be locked down now - my doc says seniors (like me) can live on very little food and could benefit from losing a bit of weight :D

Please note I am not an expert epidemilologist - these are just my interpretations of the numbers.

[FenceFurniture]

As has been mentioned before, comparing, and even trying to calculate death rates is an extremely imprecise science. The number of deaths can certainly be ascertained. The number of infections is a completely rubbery set of figures with way too many holes in it for accuracy - starting with how honest the reporting of the country is (Iran, Russia, probably China) and then going out into all the furry stuff like how many test kits are available, do the kits work properly, age of population, where they live as old people (as Bob referred to) and so on and so forth.

Especially in these relatively early days it is pretty pointless trying to extrapolate how many deaths we will see here.

[BobL]

As has been mentioned before, comparing, and even trying to calculate death rates is an extremely imprecise science. The number of deaths can certainly be ascertained. The number of infections is a completely rubbery set of figures with way too many holes in it for accuracy - starting with how honest the reporting of the country is (Iran, Russia, probably China) and then going out into all the furry stuff like how many test kits are available, do the kits work properly, age of population, where they live as old people (as Bob referred to) and so on and so forth. .

I agree and is probably why the South Korean rate is so low. Remember they peaked nearly 3 weeks ago. They tested lots of people so probably have the most reliable numbers of infections. Two weeks ago they had a total of 5800 infected and today have 84 deaths so 1.6% death rate. But the also went into lock down early and did a lot more testing and tracking than anyone else except perhaps Singapore who currently have 313 infected and no deaths.

The US have got serious issues - two weeks go they only had 150 reported cases and today they have close to 100 deaths. The deaths are real so this is almost certain classic underreporting of infects. If the "real death rate is ~3% then when 2 weeks ago when they thought they had 150 infects they probably had closer to 3000! Working forwards with a 3 day doubling then today when they think they have 7000 infects they really have ~48000! They know all this and is why certain US cities are going into lockdown.

But all very rubbery!

[FenceFurniture]

I would say that the biggest contributor to the rubber is the number of undiagnosed cases where people have no symptoms at all - so don't get tested or counted as a stat. I'll wager that might just be the vast majority of cases.

[FenceFurniture]

The US have got serious issuesWell yes, but that's hardly anything new! :D They've had serious issues for decades if not hundreds of years, but things got REALLY serious in November 2016, and superserious (and supercilious) From Jan 20th 2017.

[ian]

The quality of our society in these times will be judged by how well we treat those less fortunate than ourselves.
so so true

[Lappa]

Interesting article on South Korea’s response to the virus.

They DID NOT lock down which is interesting

South Korea's coronavirus lessons: Quick, easy tests; monitoring | News | Al Jazeera (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/south-korea-coronavirus-lessons-quick-easy-tests-monitoring-200319011438619.html)

The interesting part for me was, apart from the mass testing and the regular updates by SMS, was the fact they GPS tracked people who where supposed to be self isolating.

I always wondered how many travellers, coming to Australia or returning, actually self isolated for 2 weeks.

[Bushmiller]

Not good news this morning. US infections have escalated with DT doing an about face now calling Covid-19 the Chinese flu instead of praising their actions as he did a while ago.Does this mean he has two feces (sorry that should read two faces). Australia's infection rate has done a dramatic jump.

I heard Norman Swan on Radio National yesterday and he had an interesting take on the biphasing aspect (re-infection). He thought that the instances may not be correct and in fact may be the result of incorrect testing resulting in a false negative at the end of the illness. Let's hope he is right as it is a faint glimmer of good news in a sea of despair.

Stay healthy.

Regards
Paul

[Lappa]

Not trying to defend DT ( that would not be an easy task) , but apparently he only started calling it the Chinese flu after a high official in China accused US soldiers of spreading the virus from China to the world.. very childish but that DT!

[Lappa]

I have had two situations this week which are a direct result of the virus.

We have disposable gloves for the students and staff at work. We put an order in for more plus hand sanitiser on Monday.
Rang up to check the order. Both items are in short supply (obviously) - 3 to 4 weeks minimum and probably 8 weeks or more.

my SIL had a bus driver traineeship with State Transit in Sydney. A two year traineeship with full time work and he would get a Cert III at the end. 20 months in, Light Rail was nearing completion and he and the other 20 trainees were put off. Couldn’t find another job in Sydney driving buses or trucks - he applied for every job that came up but they were few and far between.
He found a job in Newcastle driving buses, casual, so he and my daughter packed their bags and moved up. He was getting about 30 hours a week and my daughter got a job in a flower distribution centre - all good. Casual work started to get less (school holidays, less winery tours, less weddings) and the hours dropped dramatically. He found another job with a large bus company. Still casual but 35 hours a week. Loves it.
Daughter’s job now starts to get reduced hours due to flower sales rapidly dropping. Work drops to two and then one day a week if that. Large weddings now small, large corporate events called off due to crowd number restrictions.
SIL gets the call on Thursday - bus company is going to skeleton staff as passenger numbers have dropped dramatically as events, old folks outings etc. etc have been cancelled. “Go home and wait for a phone call”


Interesting times.

[BobL]

Not trying to defend DT ( that would not be an easy task) , but apparently he only started calling it the Chinese flu after a high official in China accused US soldiers of spreading the virus from China to the world.. very childish but that DT!

I first hear DT call COVID19 the "Chinese Virus" back in early Feb, then for a while he praised China for doing a good job, now it's out of control in the US he's back to China blame. Inconsistency? what else would we expect from him.

Korea didn't lock down but they did limit people movement between some regions. Their real smart moves were mass testing, public awareness and sophisticated tracking from the outset. Taiwan which had daily direct flights direct from Wuhan only has 100 cases. We don't hear about much about them, especially the;


technologically intrusive surveillance-state aspects of Taiwan’s response—notably, its real-time integration of national health care databases with customs and travel records and its use of government-issued cell phones to remotely monitor quarantine orders—we keep seeing the culturally embedded assumption that East Asian-style state social control just won’t fly in the good old, individualist, government-wary, freedom-loving United States. Taiwan Is Beating the Coronavirus. Can the US Do the Same? | WIRED (https://www.wired.com/story/taiwan-is-beating-the-coronavirus-can-the-us-do-the-same/)

Interesting comparison between the organised, educated response of the Taiwan and the US (lets go buy some guns) in that article.

Final paragraph

If there is any silver lining here, it’s that the disaster now upon us is of such immense scope that it could finally expose the folly of the structural forces that have been wreaking sustained havoc on American governmental institutions. So maybe we are finally about to learn that competence matters, that educated leaders are a virtue, and that telling the truth is a responsibility.

[FenceFurniture]

Not trying to defend DT ( that would not be an easy task) , but apparently he only started calling it the Chinese flu after a high official in China accused US soldiers of spreading the virus from China to the world.. very childish but that DT!Well I reckon that the Chinese DID invent the virus, and for the benefit of the world. The Impeachment failed because the Publicans have got no ticker (as it was always going to), so the next best way to rid the world of DT is to prove his incompetence once and for all beyond anyone's doubt - put out a pandemic.

With a bit of luck it will make him 100% unre-electable.

:D


(Black face and Brown face are not acceptable, but I would dearly love to see Biden wearing Orange Face with White Eyes to the first debate in September)

[Tccp123]

I've read a number of articles this morning purporting to quote Italian government studies that show 99% of the fatalities in italy have been "old" (average age 79.5) people with pre-existing medical conditions (serious chronic diseases). While this isn't necessarily good news for "us" (many of whom might fall into this category) it's certainly encouraging for the rest of the population and the situation as a whole.

I know the Internet is awash with BS but it would be nice to think this one is true.

[woodPixel]

FYI, I had a talk with my son - he's a grunt at the local IGA.

To the facts and rumour control! ....

-- There is no shortage of anything. It is all just logistics.
-- They've put up a sign at the TP, paper towels, etc, that to enquire at the counter and you can get a pack.
-- There is more than enough for everybody*


For the last three days, they've been unpacking 13 pallets of stuff each day. Things are literally being taken off the shelf as they're put up. The store has had more turnover in three days than the prior 4 weeks. It is not a small or slow store!

On meat, there is plenty. Unfortunately everyone seems to be grabbing enough for the End Of Days. They sold two weeks worth of meat in a single day. They were rescued by a local butcher who had his grunts slaving on a huge delivery. Its going out today, so it will be interesting what happens.

An offer**, to those who are truly rock-hard-place.... if I can organise anything for you, I can do so. I can box it and send it to you, via my excellent low cost couriers, at cost and no markup. Just pop me a message. I can't be a shopping service, but I can get those stuck in their caves a bit of help.


EDIT 11am Friday- I messaged the IGA and they said this offer is ABSOLUTELY FINE. All good to go. Just let me know and I'll do what I can.



* Reminds me of something that was told to me by somebody, a long time ago, who was obscenely rich... "There is more than enough for everyone, but not enough for some."
** Today is Friday 20th March. IM, email or Telegram is fine. I'll do what I can, but I can't offer ANY guarantees.
!!! Of course, this is contingent on the forum being OK with it too......



Todays load in the coolroom!.....
470189

[Lappa]

Yes he called it the Chinese virus earlier but he started calling it the Chinese flu recently in response to a Chinese blaming US soldiers, according to reports last week.

i wouldn’t be surprised if it was manufactured by China. Did you read/hear the talk by Bronwyn Bishop on the virus? Probably went a tiny bit too far:D

[Bushmiller]

The statistics depend on accurate reporting. Inaccurate reporting may result from lack of resources, overwhelming cases, mistakes, deliberate mis-reporting and "political intervention." With that last one I am sceptical that the Chinese have no more reported deaths for example. I suspect the American situation is much worse than they are letting on, because being in denial, thanks a bundle Don, there are very ill-prepared.

It is indeed the elderly and the "infirm' who are most at risk: Probably it is not a cause for complacency.

Interesting that while in Australia we have some food shortages and also the infamous toilet rolls shortage to the extent we are limiting purchases to one packet, in America in addition to these items they are starting to limit the issue of ammunition to one or two boxes. Gun sales are also experiencing a rapid rise. The good news there is that they are holding prices down to pre covid-19 prices. :rolleyes:

Gun sales rise as coronavirus fears trigger personal safety concerns (https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/gun-sales-rise-coronavirus-fears-trigger-personal-safety-concerns-n1161926)

Perhaps they should consider diverting a little of that money to test kits.

Regards
Paul

[FenceFurniture]

Yes he called it the Chinese virus earlier but he started calling it the Chinese flu recentlyThat's only because he's such a dolt that he can't get it, or anything else, right twice in a row.

[woodPixel]

To extend on what many have felt to be true - here are some facts about who are slain by this beast --> Bloomberg -99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says)


snippet:

"The new study could provide insight into why Italy's death rate, at about 8% of total infected people, is higher than in other countries. The Rome-based institute has examined medical records of about 18% of the country's coronavirus fatalities, finding that just three victims, or 0.8% of the total, had no previous pathology. Almost half of the victims suffered from at least three prior illnesses and about a fourth had either one or two previous conditions. More than 75% had high blood pressure, about 35% had diabetes and a third suffered from heart disease."

[FenceFurniture]

Gun sales rise as coronavirus fears trigger personal safety concerns (https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/gun-sales-rise-coronavirus-fears-trigger-personal-safety-concerns-n1161926)It is just SO easy to see how the USA could descend into anarchy. Every man redneck for themselves.

[GraemeCook]

Indeed. The stimulus isn't designed to benefit the recipient - it's to benefit the businesses that they patronise, which helps keep their employees working......

Nailed it.


There is a very good reason why $750 won't be going out until March 31st........

Plus it actually takes time to reprogram Centrelink's computers to make such a one-off payment.

[GraemeCook]

BobL for PM!


Don't be ridiculous. Bob's too smart.

[FenceFurniture]

Well here is Trump's racism on display. This is from his press conference Thursday 19th March. Firstly, note the size of the font so that Dummy Donny can (at least try to) read it properly. He has crossed out "corona" and hand written "China" before virus. A premeditated, deliberate and continuing slur from the World Fwit.

Just what we need right now from the leader of the free world. :~

(a very well observed picture by Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images
470195

[Bushmiller]

Well here is Trump's racism on display. This is from his press conference Thursday 19th March. Firstly, note the size of the font so that Dummy Donny can (at least try to) read it properly. He has crossed out "corona" and hand written "China" before virus. A premeditated, deliberate and continuing slur from the World Fwit.

Just what we need right now from the leader of the free world. :~

(a very well observed picture by Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images
470195

Well, that's it then.

Only one option available to him.

Hari Kari.

Just a shame it will have to be done in private as the mass gathering inevitably generated by such a spectacle in public would undoubtedly contravene the emergency restrictions. :D

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

As has been mentioned before, comparing, and even trying to calculate death rates is an extremely imprecise science. The number of deaths can certainly be ascertained. The number of infections is a completely rubbery set of figures with way too many holes in it for accuracy - .......

It is probably even more complicated than that, FF.

At the start Wuhan was completely unprepared and their health services were completely overwhelmed. If someone died before they were tested for COVID-19 then they were not counted as a sufferer or a victim. Just another death.

Even now, assuming testing kits are readily available, there are issues with the figures, even in first world countries with good medical facilities. The test kits have an accuracy of between 95 - 98%. This means:

From 2 to 5% of tests give false negatives, and
From 2 to 5% of tests give false positives.

Most medical testing has some inaccuracy, the profession is used to adjusting for it, and the outcome is usually OK for the patient. [eg A false negative, the patient does not improve, so gets retested - often after a pile of other tests looking for alternative problems.

[FenceFurniture]

Hari Kari.They could auction off the job of being his "second" and I reckon Mike Bloomberg would be willing to pay about $50,000,000,000 for it. That could go back into the coffers to help cover costs.

(For those who don't know the "second" stands behind the Samurai committing seppuku, ready to whip off his head if he begins to cry out in pain. This saves the dignity of the Samurai from appearing weak to pain.)

Reckon Bloomberg wouldn't take the final swipe either. Just leave him to it. :dev:

[GraemeCook]

To extend on what many have felt to be true - here are some facts about who are slain by this beast --> Bloomberg -99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says)
.......


Has anyone been able to find the Italian source of the Report referred to?

My reason for asking is that Bloomberg is politically to the right of Ghengis Khan and there is always the risk of subconscious editing....

[BobL]

Even now, assuming testing kits are readily available, there are issues with the figures, even in first world countries with good medical facilities. The test kits have an accuracy of between 95 - 98%. This means:

From 2 to 5% of tests give false negatives, and
From 2 to 5% of tests give false positives.

Most medical testing has some inaccuracy, the profession is used to adjusting for it, and the outcome is usually OK for the patient. [eg A false negative, the patient does not improve, so gets retested - often after a pile of other tests looking for alternative problems.

When we lived in the US SWMBO developed strep throat. Now it did not take a rocket scientist to work out it was there, bright red pustules covering the back of her throat. I took her to the doc and they did a test and it came back negative and she was prescribed analgesics. The next day she was worse, so back to the doc, again a test and again negative. We could have gone to another doctor but that would have cost and arm and a leg because our (very expensive) medical insurance restricted up to specific providers. I was waiting in the car with our son and when she came out crying I lost it and stormed in and used a few colourful aussie terms requesting a retest. The receptionist called security and I was escorted off the premises. Two minutes later the receptionist came out to the car park and said she had organised a 3rd test. This time it worked, antibiotics prescribed and it went away.

[Lappa]

Was it really intentionally racist or little Donald having a childish moment ( or in his mind a normal moment)?. After all it did come from China and whilst this one didn’t come from Spain, it was still labelled the Spanish Flu and i don’t believe one would call that racist.
I have no love for DT believe me. My sister lives in the States and called DTs’s action on the virus a clusterf$&k.

[BobL]

Has anyone been able to find the Italian source of the Report referred to?

My reason for asking is that Bloomberg is politically to the right of Ghengis Khan and there is always the risk of subconscious editing....

Yep I read it - its in Italian.
Here is the link https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_17_marzo-v2.pdf

There's nothing new in the report, the median age for COVID19 deaths is 84 years old for women and 80 for men, and of those 99% had at least 1 existing health condition. I doubt there would be many 80 year olds that don't have a least one health condition. 18% of all Aussies over 75 have diabetes

The report says it is based on data as of 17/3 but I think its maybe a day or two older than that probably before the docs had in some hospitals to park anyone over 60 needing a ventilator in a corner.

High BP, Diabetes, and heart disease are the primary comorbities.
I have 4 comorbidities, 2 of these are rare so that's why they don't feature on the list.

Only 17 of the 2000 odd deaths were less than 50 and they all had at least one pre-existing health condition.

I can extract the list of comorbidities if anyone is interested

[GraemeCook]

Well, that's it then.

Only one option available to him.

Hari Kari.
.......


Or will the FWIC think its a Chinese plot ????

[Lappa]

On my trip to London to see my Granddaughters four years ago I got a really sore throat with neck glands up. Went to the hospital, showed my passport and was ushered to a waiting room which was chock a block. Interesting experience from people crying to those projectile vomiting, to those talking to imaginary friends to those assaulting others with the police coming in and taking one away in handcuffs - better than prime time TV :D
Anyways, about three hours later I got to see a nurse who did a preliminary examination and then I was sent out to wait. Two hours later I saw the doctor who examined me and I got a script for antibiotics. Next day, I went back to the hospital, waited in a queue at the pharmacy for an hour, showed my passport and script and got the antibiotics. Drugs prescribed st the hospital can only be picked up from their pharmacy.

[FenceFurniture]

Was it really intentionally racist or little Donald having a childish moment ( or in his mind a normal moment)?. After all it did come from China and whilst this one didn’t come from Spain, it was still labelled the Spanish Flu and i don’t believe one would call that racist.The difference is that that was then (100 years ago) and this is now, and we are much less tolerant of racism these days. Furthermore, the Chinese have stated that they find it offensive, and Chinese Americans have said they are coming under fire because of the stigma that Trump is giving them. Also, Chinese people have been subjected to racism in every country that they are present in (almost all of the world) whereas the Spanish have copped it in England and....anywhere else? I don't think they are too popular in South America, but I doubt it's full on racism (a bit like Poms in Oz :D)

That should be enough for him to stop, apart from the fact that he has been advised to, but no, Dummy Donny has to keep inflaming the situation for some perceived advantage. He knows full well that it upsets the Chinese, so he deliberately continues to do it, to purposely inflame the situation. Same shight that is coming from Jair Bolsonaro's son.

Just because some idiot Chinese official suggests it was brought in by the USA military in October doesn't mean that the discussion has to descend into the gutter, but of course we are talking about the worst, most childish brat of a POTUS ever, with whom discussions don't descend into the gutter, they just stay there.

A great quote in the Guardian blog was "The President is continually trying to appear Churchillian, but at every turn he looks more and more like...Donald Trump."

[FenceFurniture]

This is a very interesting read from David Lipsom on Trump's wild change of course:
Coronavirus has finally spooked Donald Trump. Here's what changed his mind - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-20/trump-coronavirus-transformation-is-a-warning-to-americans/12070178)

There are a couple of short vids in there and both are worth a look, particularly the first one (Washington Post) showing all the Fox News presenters changing their tune dramatically within a week.

Note that it's from ABC News before you click on it and give those damned lefties another little bit of oxygen.....

[FenceFurniture]

Just announced:


Tenants will be protected


"Relief can be provided for tenants in both commercial tenancies and residential tenancies, to ensure that in hardship conditions, there will be relief that will be available, and ensuring that tenancy legislation is protecting those tenants over the next six months at least."

[woodPixel]

Know what? I really couldn't care less what happens to the USA.

They have chosen their course. Their leadership. Their medical system and their brand of Capitalism.

I'm utterly, completely, fulsomely and totally sick to death of hearing about them and the toxic farce their leadership is.

That squeeky wheel, nay - rattling worn-down greaseless bearing - is about to seize up in a catastrophic financial failure that will look like Betelgeuse going supernova. Its game over for the USA. The end. Sayonara and good riddance.



What I AM interested in is everyone else. How the reasoned, rational, compassionate and wise are dealing with the worlds new woe and what positive outcomes we might experience because of it.

Will we be more tolerant of other countries and their cultural foibles? See people for what they are - interesting, intelligent, storied and historied?

Will we finally realise that fixation on financialisation has destroyed the world? Debt? Ridiculous over-governance and bureaucracy being, well, completely unnecessary?

I'm hoping that with a few months holed up that the nerds of the world create new tools for communicating and connecting with each other! I'm seeing amazing things occur - sharing, information, community, video conferencing, chats with distant grandparents.


This, might, remind us we are humans.... not taxable entities and debt repayment robots.
..
..
..
If we heal and go back to more of the same.... what have we achieved?

[FenceFurniture]

WP, I think you forgot to add:
:ranton:


Now technically, you are supposed to then finish with
:rantoff:
but maybe it might be easier to leave it open? :D

[BobL]

New social distancing rule is "4m^2" per person.

that work with AFL or NRL?

Table for 4 at a restaurant will occupy 16m^2?

Pub bar ?

Urinal?

Checkout line?

Bus queue?

Bus or train?

[Lappa]

Just received a SMS from my sister who lives in California.

”...We are sheltering ( the term used instead of lock down) it was first a county recommendation and then an order - the governor just extended it to include all of CALIFORNIA. .....”

[Lappa]

New social distancing rule is "4m^2" per person.

that work with AFL or NRL?

Table for 4 at a restaurant will occupy 16m^2?

Pub bar ?

Urinal?

Checkout line?

Bus queue?

Bus or train?

Read that as well but we had the State Health Minister in the TV an hour ago, due to the new cruise ship problem, and he said make sure you keep a distance if 1.5m between yourself and others. So, 1.5 to the left and 1.5 to the right and same front and back equates to 9 square metres? Wish they would consult with each other.

[Bushmiller]

Read that as well but we had the State Health Minister in the TV an hour ago, due to the new cruise ship problem, and he said make sure you keep a distance if 1.5m between yourself and others. So, 1.5 to the left and 1.5 to the right and same front and back equates to 9 square metres?

That works on my calculator too. If you can get your back to the wall the area could be reduced, but that did not work out well at The Alamo.

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

New social distancing rule is "4m^2" per person.

that work with ... NRL?
....


Be interesting to see how they handle social distancing in the rugby scrums.

For those who live in the southern states and are not familiar with rugby terms, a scrum is when one guy tries to ram three guys heads up two guys .......

[Bushmiller]

Be interesting to see how they handle social distancing in the rugby scrums.

For those who live in the southern states and are not familiar with rugby terms, a scrum is when one guy tries to ram three guys heads up two guys .......

Graeme

That would have to come under essential "services."

Regards
Paul

[Sturdee]

Know what? I really couldn't care less what happens to the USA.

They have chosen their course. Their leadership. Their medical system and their brand of Capitalism.

I'm utterly, completely, fulsomely and totally sick to death of hearing about them and the toxic farce their leadership is.

That squeeky wheel, nay - rattling worn-down greaseless bearing - is about to seize up in a catastrophic financial failure that will look like Betelgeuse going supernova. Its game over for the USA. The end. Sayonara and good riddance.





I wholeheartedly agree with you. Who gives a rat's tossbag what happens in the so called "good old US of A"

This thread would be better if we ignore them and concentrate on what's really happening with the Corona virus in the normal world.

Peter.

[Tccp123]

Yesterday my wife received the attached email. This is a restaurant we may go to say once a month. I’ve been to better but it’s in a nice setting, prices are reasonable and the staff friendly. So we decided to go there for lunch today.

I'm pleased to say it was almost standing room only ��. People turned up in droves to support them. Channel 7 even had a camera there to record the event. It was really encouraging to see people put a little risk above seeing someone go down the gurgler.

I counted seven staff, there may have been more in the kitchen. The owner told me they had six tables for the whole of last week and not a single person on the weekend.

Social distancing? I estimated our table was five metres away from the nearest table.

The restaurant is in Samford if anyone in Brisbane is interested in giving them some support.

470226470227

[Greg Ward]

America may deserve criticism but also our ongoing thanks for their use of power across the globe in the past and current centuries.
We sit here in relative comfort and can rail against whoever and whatever we like not because we are have a few submarines and lot of coal and iron ore.
Best if this thread stays on its focus of empty shelves not empty rhetoric.

[BobL]

Read that as well but we had the State Health Minister in the TV an hour ago, due to the new cruise ship problem, and he said make sure you keep a distance if 1.5m between yourself and others. So, 1.5 to the left and 1.5 to the right and same front and back equates to 9 square metres? Wish they would consult with each other.

Hmmmmmm . . . . . . 1.5m to the left etc means that there is 0.75m halfway between you and the next person in 4 directions so that means eac person occupies 1.5m x 1.5m^2 or 2.25 m^2 per person.

So which is it 2.25 or 4 m^2?

It depends how we arrange ourselves if we work on circles, with a 1m or 0.75m radius, then its 3.14 m^2 or 1.76 m^2 then we have decide on the packing factor.

[FenceFurniture]

New social distancing rule is "4m^2" per person.

Urinal?Takes all the fun away dunnit?

[AlexS]

Whether we like the current US administration or not, we have to care what happens there, because for good or (so far) bad, it will affect us.

[FenceFurniture]

So, 1.5 to the left and 1.5 to the right and same front and back equates to 9 square metres?Well, technically it should be a circle of radius 1.5m which brings it down to 7m², but I assume if you are against the wall it could just be a semicircle of 3.5m². :D

[BobL]

Well, technically it should be a circle of radius 1.5m which brings it down to 7m², but I assume if you are against the wall it could just be a semicircle of 3.5m². :D

Err . . . .Nope. . . . . . its 1.5 m BETWEEN people so the radius for one person is 0.75m.

[FenceFurniture]

If you can get your back to the wall the area could be reduced, but that did not work out well at The Alamo.:roflmao:

[FenceFurniture]

Err . . . .Nope. . . . . . its 1.5 m BETWEEN people so the radius for one person is 0.75m.I'm at the centre of the circle...with a ring of idiots around me, watching me eat. :D

(but yeah, you're right)

[BobL]

I'm at the centre of the circle...with a ring of idiots around me, watching me eat. :D

Technically its possible to fit a ring of 6 people around you that are 1.5m from you and all are 1.5m apart - its called a "Hexagonal close packed arrangement" and maximises the packing.

Somehow at least in terms of disease transmission that doesn't seem right, or enough . . . . . . . . .

This early morning when I took the dogs for a walk a couple and small fluffy whit thing appeared about 100m away and carefully skirted around them but of course my Border Collies tried to round the fluffy white thing up and then hung around accepting pats and cuddles from said white fluffy thing's owners.

The on the way home Dr Norman Swan is on the ABC saying that COVID19 could transfer on dog hair!!! Haven't touched the dogs since.

[Lappa]

Tccp123,
Yep, small businesses like them must be hurting. The wife and I went down to the shops to buy our usual Thursday night out take away and the shopper numbers were real low. The restaurants we passed were almost empty. Many of the other shops were closing and the time was about 7pm. The only business doing a roaring trade was Coles with long lines at the the Check Outs - unusual for a Thursday night.
I have a favourite eatery but tables are on top of each other so I won’t be visiting unless they spread the tables or it’s almost empty:D

[FenceFurniture]

its called a "Hexagonal close packed arrangement" and maximises the packing.Yes, I've heard that the NRL are thinking of changing the scrummaging formation to this, but I'm not quite sure how how they are going to get the two sides to engage. The ARU faces a different dilemma with their 8 person scrums. Perhaps the two Breakaways might have to become Free Radicals.

[Lappa]

Maybe the Govt. will mandate that we all wear hoops of a prescribed radius when going outside.:D

[FenceFurniture]

I have re-attached the PDF that Bob put up before, to save digging back through the posts for it - instructions on page 3. The WHO Brew recipe is for 10 litres, and calls for 3% Hydrogen Peroxide, which is almost the same price as 6% (and all you get is extra distilled water). So, buy 6% if you can. I've been using it as a mouthwash for 30 years in a 1.5% solution (so 3 parts water and 1 part 6% H2O2) swilled aggressively in the mouth to release the O2 - quite fun to feel your cheeks swell up with pressure.

<tbody>


</tbody>


So, the recipe for 1 litre of sanitiser:

<colgroup><col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2792;60pt" width="80"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:6679;144pt" width="191"> </colgroup><tbody>

To make 1 litre



833

mls Ethanol 96%


20

mls H2O2 6%



15

mls Glycerol 98%



132

mls Cold boiled water



1000

TOTAL

</tbody>

[Chief Tiff]

Thanks for posting the recipe Brett,

Please excuse my ignorance but where can one actually buy the ingredients from? Are they something that you can pick up from Chemist Warehouse or similar?

[BobL]

eBay - if you can find any. I believe they are selling out FAST,
A few years ago I was given 40L of IPA but ended up giving more than half away so have hardly any left!
***** IMPORTANT*****
DO NOT USE ANY OLD STUFF FROM EBAY , HARDWARE, OR ELSEWHERE.
The safest stuff to use is pharmaceutical or food grade chemicals.
other grades may contain dangerous additives.
this may be ok for rhino hide tradie hands but could be nasty on kids or seniors.
You’d have to weigh this up against the risk of COVID19 😀

[FenceFurniture]

Hydrogen Peroxide 6% and Glycerol 98% came from the pharmacy. My local only had one large bottle of 3% until next week so I just used some of my current bottle of 6%, and 100ml bottle of Glycerol was around $6. The H2o2 at 6% is about $13 for 400ml (and 3% is about $11!)

[Simplicity]

Strong language in this clip,
But some very good points,

Some of you will be aware of my opinion of Scotty.


YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFb5vZ7GDnM&feature=share)

Cheers Matt.

[FenceFurniture]

Hydrogen Peroxide 6% and Glycerol 98% came from the pharmacy. My local only had one large bottle of 3% until next week so I just used some of my current bottle of 6%, and 100ml bottle of Glycerol was around $6. The H2o2 at 6% is about $13 for 400ml (and 3% is about $11!)


Bear in mind that 400ml of 6% Peroxide will make 20 litres of Sanitiser, and 100ml bottle of Glycerol will make 6½ litres, so a small bottle of 3% peroxide would probably do most people. I insist on the 400ml 6% for my use as a mouth wash (which is also a VERY good thing to do help avoid C19, btw - apparently it kills the virus in the mouth before it gets to the trachea, and it also freshens up your breath brilliantly)

[Chesand]

I think you will find pure Ethanol hard to get. Pharmacies are not allowed to resell it as they get it duty free for use in prescriptions and are only allowed a certain quantity in a certain time.