CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[FenceFurniture]

But the NRA does it every year.And apparently everyone in the USA is preparing for having to do it a whole lot more in the near future. Can't buy a gun or a bullet in some/many shops.

[Tccp123]

Sometimes I just shake my head...

[ian]

I think it might be helpful if I posted this chart
source Australian Health Sector Emergency Response Plan for Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) | Australian Government Department of Health (https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/australian-health-sector-emergency-response-plan-for-novel-coronavirus-covid-19) (page 11 of the word version. The easily accessible meta data indicates that the particular Version was last saved just after mid-night on 18 February 2020 and was created on 17 February 2020 at about 6 PM.)

https://www.woodworkforums.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=470776&d=1585717252


still a fair bit of unknowns about this particular virus, but on this available data, the Government's initial response was too little.

Hindsight suggests that, the Australian Government should have acted like New Zealand did 3 (?) weeks ago.

[BobL]

The big risk, as highlighted in the video that BobL posted, is that a country will lessen its vigilence too soon. I have seen no reports that Japan has relaxed its regime, but their new cases of coronavirus have suddenly spiked.

This is a big worry. Was the spike caused by Japan, by the virus or just a random factor? Please note data is for Tokyo, as I cannot find uptodate stuff for Japan as a whole.

Here is one for Japan from the Johns Hopkins site.
Its speculation but early Japanese data may have been repressed because they were trying to hang onto the Olympics.
It also looks like the only report sporadically to WHO = hence days without any reported cases.
470779

[Bushmiller]

WRT somewhat pointless comparisons of C19 to flu, gunshot deaths, smoking deaths, child starvation etc:


We do at least try to achieve something about child starvation, just nowhere near enough, even though it is simpler and cheaper to fix
Smoking related illness, starvation and gunshot wounds are not super-contagious, in fact not even a little bit
Smoking related illness and death is self inflicted (albeit with gobs of marketing and denial "help" from big tobacco). As some here know, I was a smoker until 4 years ago, so I know exactly how addictive it is and difficult to give up.
A great many of the gunshot deaths in the USA are caused by poor/bad/shocking mental health of the perp, especially in mass shootings
There are only a few countries that have gun related death stats like USA, Mexico, Brazil etc. C19 is worldwide.
The world has locked down to try and limit this virulent C19 disease. If regular influenza was as contagious and deadly we'd probably have to do the same for that too.
Which of the two (C19 or regular flu) is the most deadly is hardly the point - NOBODY has any immunity to C19 (yet) except perhaps those who have recovered. Perhaps it will transpire that some people have been found to be somewhat immune, somehow.
C19 deaths are in addition to everything else. It's not like it replaces something.



Brett

Good summary. (Actuallt, I have just thought that you could have added road deaths too: Another that is not comparable!) Too often we are tempted to compare disasters and tragedies, but other than they are a tragedy or a disaster the comparable aspect ends there.

Still for me the underlining concern is that both we and the so-called experts just don't know. It is not my intention to malign the experts in any way by that statement. When you are in uncharted territory you can only surmise. For example, how many mutations will this virus make before it plays out, will they significantly change the nature or level of contagion and will they become even more contagious?

I just looked up the difference between infectious and contagious. Covid-19 is probably both. :(

Regards
Paul

[BobL]

C19 deaths are in addition to everything else. It's not like it replaces something.



Nope - disagree, at least some of the people dying right now of COVID19 will be in people who were going to die this year anyway, especially those with underlying conditions and in nursing homes - even simple stats will indicate that.
The older and poorer in health they are the more likely they will die if they get COVID19.

Don't forget that about 8% of Aussie blokes in the 60 - 69 age range will die this year irrespective of COVID19.

Amongst the bigger specific death problems is the loss of small numbers of highly trained medical staff with 46 doctors dying and 2000 nurses in quarantine so far from just one major Italian hospital alone
One reason for this has been lack of PPE and the overwhelming viral loads inside these hospitals
These people are very hard to replace as it will take about a generation to do this and they will be badly needed especially when the second wave hits.

This is why flattening the curve is so important and we may have to be prepared to live under these restrictive conditions even up till when a vaccine is available.

[FenceFurniture]

Its speculation but early Japanese data may have been repressed because they were trying to hang onto the Olympics.Is that your speculation or wider spread? Maybe they are bit by bit adding in the earlier data to catch up, in the famous "face saving" way.

[BobL]

Is that your speculation or wider spread? Maybe they are bit by bit adding in the earlier data to catch up, in the famous "face saving" way.

That too, all of the countries are conducting "Data revision" as the numbers are just coming in too thick and fast.

[BobL]

Still for me the underlining concern is that both we and the so-called experts just don't know. It is not my intention to malign the experts in any way by that statement. When you are in uncharted territory you can only surml

Two experts interviewed on ABC Australian Story on Monday night (very good viewing BTW - Highly recommended)
Australian Story : ABC iview (https://iview.abc.net.au/show/australian-story/series/2020/video/NC2002Q008S00)
said exactly this - it's a brand new virus are we just don't know enough about it, even treating the patients is still a guessing game.

One doctor (Prof Fraser) is automatically collecting patient data from 200 ICUs across 60 countries and feeding this into an Artificial Intelligence engine to see if they can come up with optimise treatment regime. Here's where a my health record for each patient would come in real handy.

They feed in everything they know about the patient, the treatments undertaken, including the outcomes. Its only enabled for ICUs that are fully computerised otherwise entering the data manually would be too slow.

[Bushmiller]

Nope - disagree, at least some of the people dying right now of COVID19 will be in people who were going to die this year anyway, especially those with underlying conditions and nursing homes - even simple stats will indicate that.
The older and poorer in health they are the more likely they will die if they get COVID19.

Don't forget that about 8% of Aussie blokes in the 60 - 69 age range will die this year irrespective of COVID19.

Bob

I can understand you saying that and you may be right, but how, at this stage do you know? I would think that until stats come in after six months and we can compare to the same period in previous years we can only guess. Actually you did say yourself that "some of the people dying right now of COVID19 will be people who were going to die this year anyway."

It is true that elderly people and people with underlying health conditions are more susceptible, but that is not to say that without becoming infected by Covid-19 they would not have carried on for another (say) ten years. I know people who were told thirty years ago they might not last another year. If it hastens their demise it has increased the death rate because ordinarily they were not going to die (at least not this year).

Shirt! 8% in the 60 - 69 age group are going to die. I need to urgently find another 12 men (what about the women? why aren't they dying? Can I substitute a woman if there are insufficient men?) so I am not that one!



Regards
Paul

[NeilS]

My point is that it makes no sense bringing the whole world economy to its knees, creating an economic desert that might take decades to recover from and ruining the futures of countless numbers of young people because you are frightened by some numbers which in comparison to the total number of deaths are an insignificant fraction.

Really!

Respected economists like Chris Richardson are saying the reverse....

"One thing is clear, a decision taken today on addressing the public health
crisis will be exponentially more valuable as the exact same decision taken
in a week – or even a day.

This is a ‘whatever it takes’ moment for large scale, new and unconventional fiscal and monetary policies." 26 Mar 2020, Source: here (https://www2.deloitte.com/au/en/pages/covid-19/articles/whatever-it-takes.html)



As for the economy taking decades to recover, the GDP of the USA took only six years to return to pre-crash levels. Who is predicting that the economic impact, as considerable as it will be, is going to be worse that the Great Depression?

The OECD predicts that...

“Global growth could drop to 1.5 per cent in 2020, half the rate projected before the virus outbreak. Recovery much more gradual through 2021”.

“Severe, short-lived downturn in China, where GDP growth falls below 5% in 2020 after 6.1% in 2019, but recovering to 6.4% in 2021. In Japan, Korea, Australia, growth also hit hard then gradual recovery. Impact less severe in other economies but still hit by drop in confidence and supply chain disruption”.
Source: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report March 2020 (https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/)




We are still talking numbers well below the effects of the 'normal' flu.



I do hope you are right, but it's a long way yet from running its course.

And, as others have pointed out, the Covid-19 numbers will be on top of the usual morbidity load, like the 18,000 hospitalisation from the regular flu that we get here on average every winter. Source: Influenza Fast Facts >> Influenza Specialist Group (ISG) (http://www.isg.org.au/index.php/clinical-information/influenza-fast-facts-/)

The conundrum for decision makers is if we come in well below the projections then the measures taken to achieve that will be criticised as being too draconian, but more lives will be saved. However, if in retrospect they chose inadequate measures they will have had unnecessary deaths on their watch and the electorate will judge them accordingly. Watch Italy and Spain. But, nobody is going to get it just right in such challenging circumstances, well not unless they get very lucky.

So, every good bit of luck to us here!

[FenceFurniture]

Nope - disagree, at least some of the people dying right now of COVID19 will be in people who were going to die this year anyway, especially those with underlying conditions and in nursing homes - even simple stats will indicate that.Ok, so I should have said "more or less in addition to everything else on that above list" (which is what I meant). Those who would die of flu might die of C19 instead, but it's not like C19 will overall only be a few additional deaths worldwide if there hadn't been all the measures put in place which have unfortunately made the world economy comatose.

The overall point is that some seem to think we can get through this without whacking the economy, but haven't offered any solutions as to how that would be done. I'm sure that the leaders of the world would love to know how that could be done, because it certainly would be preferable.

[FenceFurniture]

Shirt! 8% in the 60 - 69 age group are going to die. I need to urgently find another 12 men (what about the women? why aren't they dying? Can I substitute a woman if there are insufficient men?) so I am not that one!Relax man....you'll be 70 soon enough.

[woodPixel]

WRT somewhat pointless comparisons of C19 to flu, gunshot deaths, smoking deaths, child starvation etc:


Which of the two (C19 or regular flu) is the most deadly is hardly the point - NOBODY has any immunity to C19 (yet) except perhaps those who have recovered. Perhaps it will transpire that some people have been found to be somewhat immune, somehow.



I did say tongue-in-cheek. It was not serious. Geez, you know I'm not serious, even when I trying to be. :)



On immunity - there is a thing..... this popped out of an AI this morning..... Experimental AI Tool Predicts Which Patients with Pandemic Virus Will Develop Serious Respiratory Disease (https://www.nyu.edu/about/news-publications/news/2020/march/experimental-ai-tool-predicts-which-patients-with-pandemic-virus.html)


Instead, the new AI tool found that changes in three features—levels of the liver enzyme alanine aminotransferase (ALT), reported myalgia, and hemoglobin levels—were most accurately predictive of subsequent, severe disease. Together with other factors, the team reported being able to predict risk of ARDS with up to 80 percent accuracy.


Also, new science! Block the demon things - The They has come up with a solution - Forschungsverbund Berlin e.V. - News (https://www.fv-berlin.de/en/info-for/the-media-and-public/news/phagen-kapsid-gegen-influenza-passgenauer-inhibitor-verhindert-virale-infektion)


YOUR READ THIS HERE FIRST!

[woodPixel]

470780

[ian]

regarding reporting from Japan ...
this site Coronavirus Cases in Japan by Prefecture | Nippon.com (https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h00657/coronavirus-cases-in-japan-by-prefecture.html) has a total number greater than that on the Worldometer site.

Haven't done enough analysis to tell if the suspected under reporting is a furphy or was for real

[FenceFurniture]

What makes this a totally different situation, worthy of an extremely heavy handed reaction or indeed over-reaction to be safer, is that the medical staff are bloody terrified. Why are so many of them getting so sick and dying? That does not normally happen. I suspect that the answer (in part) is that there is so much of this virus around through sheer numbers of presentations, and it is known that the more virus there is, the more chance of infection. Perhaps the doubters should go and volunteer their services at clinics or similar.



The conundrum for decision makers is if we come in well below the projections then the measures taken to achieve that will be criticised as being too draconian, but more lives will be saved.Surely only an absolutely uncaring know-it-all misanthropic person would have that reaction, and I don't think there are many of them around. Certainly not on this forum.

[doug3030]

470780

Who drew the circles and on what basis?

Surely not everyone in the "masks" circle wears a mask. I know for certain that a lot of people in Australia do wear masks, yet our circle is labeled no masks. Is there data on what percentage of people in each country are masking and if so what percentage defines the cutoff between the two categories?

I went to the shopping centre today and it looked like about 50/50 masks and no masks. But 100% of the people with masks did not seem to see the need for social distancing. I discovered today that it is absolutely impossible to stay 1.5 metres away from someone in a shopping centre unless they are also consciously trying to keep 1.5 metres away form you.

Without some sort of clarity of how those circles were determined it does not really mean much.

[woodPixel]

Well, if you fancy a bit of time on the tools, why not build your very own ventilator!


MIT Team Shares New $500 Emergency Ventilator Design with the Public (https://interestingengineering.com/mit-team-shares-new-500-emergency-ventilator-design-with-the-public)


Never know, its just like having some spare toilet paper :)

[woodPixel]

Who drew the circles and on what basis?

Surely not everyone in the "masks" circle wears a mask. I know for certain that a lot of people in Australia do wear masks, yet our circle is labeled no masks. Is there data on what percentage of people in each country are masking and if so what percentage defines the cutoff between the two categories?

I went to the shopping centre today and it looked like about 50/50 masks and no masks. But 100% of the people with masks did not seem to see the need for social distancing. I discovered today that it is absolutely impossible to stay 1.5 metres away from someone in a shopping centre unless they are also consciously trying to keep 1.5 metres away form you.

Without some sort of clarity of how those circles were determined it does not really mean much.


Dude! Take a bit of time to breathe.

It was simply an obvious thought bubble that someone had.... it was obvious to me. The societies that traditionally favour mask wearing when they are sick as an act of social signalling are also those that have very low numbers.

It was just an interesting curiosity, not a scientific study!

[FenceFurniture]

470780You doodlings look a bit rude there.





I did say tongue-in-cheek. It was not serious. Geez, you know I'm not serious, even when I trying to be. :)Yeah, 'course, but you never know when someone might pick up a factoid and drop the tongue-in-cheek out of it, like when Bushmiller's quoted words were edited so that it appeared that he was a climate denier or at least a skeptic.

[woodPixel]

Thought this might aleiviate some of the .... mood... developing here :)


https://youtu.be/X81AoBcVnaA

[FenceFurniture]

Dude! Take a bit of time to breathe. With a ventilator?

Well I saw that you have had some uncorrected typos, AND an "i" without a dot! And lookout if I see you type l when you mean t.




The societies that traditionally favour mask wearing when they are sick as an act of social signalling are also those that have very low numbers.Here in Katoomba we have HUGE amounts of Asian tourists spending their hard-earned, because of what the area has to offer, and it's close proximity to Sydney (2 hours by bus or train to spectacular world heritage scenery, and my shed :D). Of course they dropped to a trickle during the fires, but they came back a little bit during February.

When the C19 story started to get momentum towards the end of Feb it was ONLY Asian tourists that had masks on, and virtually all of them did. (they may not have all been tourists...). In the same breath it has to be said that during the bushfires Asian tourists were wearing....bloody useless surgical masks against the smoke. In other words, I don't think for them it's so much about signalling, but more that they think those masks are actually effective, with their huge vents on each side of the face. Certainly they do have a culture of mask wearing - even in normal times I used to see a good amount of them masked up.

[Tccp123]

I took my Tesla to the fast recharge station today and was turned away. That means all night plugged into a GPO! Now I know what people mean by "doing it tough" :(

[doug3030]

Funny Roos Comedy - 4 STAGE PLAN FOR THE CORONAVIRUS | Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/funnyrooscomedy/videos/228498894959213/)

[doug3030]

Funny Roos Comedy - 4 STAGE PLAN FOR THE CORONAVIRUS | Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/funnyrooscomedy/videos/228498894959213/)

[FenceFurniture]

Well, if you fancy a bit of time on the tools, why not build your very own ventilator!

MIT Team Shares New $500 Emergency Ventilator Design with the Public (https://interestingengineering.com/mit-team-shares-new-500-emergency-ventilator-design-with-the-public)Nah. I'm waiting for the Matthias Wandel Woodgears (https://woodgears.ca/) version to come out. I just sent him an email requesting it.

[NeilS]

Nope - disagree, at least some of the people dying right now of COVID19 will be in people who were going to die this year anyway...

Don't forget that about 8% of Aussie blokes in the 60 - 69 age range will die this year irrespective of COVID19.



Yes, but if I was one of those who was going to die in Dec of this year anyway I sure would appreciate those extra eight months and not die in April struggling for breath hooked up to a ventilator. Yes, I know either way that I would be a single stat for 2020, but those extra eight months would be nice!

However, ignoring those who are whinging about getting a few extra months of life, we can expect an increased death toll from from other heath conditions during the peak period of the CV-19 epidemic because of the stress on the health care system. So that 8% of 60-69yr old blokes is likely to be higher this year from non-CV-19 causes if we don't put a lid on the rate of CV-19 transmission. Others have probably already made that point.

As for the 70-79yr olds, I don't want to know about that!

[FenceFurniture]

Yes, but if I was one of those who was going to die in Dec of this year anyway I sure would appreciate those extra eight months and not die in April struggling for breath hooked up to a ventilator.Jeez, Neil, be careful what you wish for! :U

[Tccp123]

"One thing is clear, a decision taken today on addressing the public health crisis will be exponentially more valuable as the exact same decision taken in a week – or even a day. This is a ‘whatever it takes’ moment for large scale, new and unconventional fiscal and monetary policies."

I do hope you are right, but it's a long way yet from running its course.

And, as others have pointed out, the Covid-19 numbers will be on top of the usual morbidity load, like the 18,000 hospitalisation from the regular flu that we get here on average every winter. Source: Influenza Fast Facts >> Influenza Specialist Group (ISG) (http://www.isg.org.au/index.php/clinical-information/influenza-fast-facts-/)

The conundrum for decision makers is if we come in well below the projections then the measures taken to achieve that will be criticised as being too draconian, but more lives will be saved. However, if in retrospect they chose inadequate measures they will have had unnecessary deaths on their watch and the electorate will judge them accordingly. Watch Italy and Spain. But, nobody is going to get it just right in such challenging circumstances, well not unless they get very lucky.

So, every good bit of luck to us here!

Well good luck in placing your faith in an accountant. I've worked with too many of them to fall into that trap.

And I'm going to fall into the trap of my many climate change industry fans here when I ask have you no regard for the financial wellbeing and future of your grandchildren and their grandchildren who may take decades to pay off the lavish cash splash currently being handed out by our socialist government that you approve of to preserve your selfish existence? You've already lived your three score years and ten, isn't it their turn?

Just kidding of course...

[doug3030]

Dude! Take a bit of time to breathe.

It was simply an obvious thought bubble that someone had.... it was obvious to me. The societies that traditionally favour mask wearing when they are sick as an act of social signalling are also those that have very low numbers.

It was just an interesting curiosity, not a scientific study!

Ok Sorry, have we stopped doing that at last? :oo:'
'
I sure hope we have.:wink:

I must have missed the email.:?

[FenceFurniture]

Today's spreadsheet attached. Coupla new columns with sort buttons added. (Cases and deaths 3 day gain)

Be careful of the red "SCREEN" button. :dev: It is customised for my screen to move it to the right, so if it is on a small screen it may go across the ditch.... (you can always just shut it down without saving it and reopen). The "Colours" button is just to colour the cells via a macro.



Italy and Spain are getting HAMMERED, even though the cases haven't increased by all that much. The death rate has climbed disproportionately to the cases. Perhaps that means that there is a lag between getting on top of the new infections and existing cases still dying.

France, UK, Turkey, Belgium not a whole lot better, but with less overall deaths.

Interestingly, only Turkey is even close to doing 2x cases per 3 days (82.8%), and Australia continues to do what I can only describe as "exceptionally well", with one day's worth of new cases for the 3 day period, and only 2 more deaths.


EDIT: replaced the spreadsheet with the next gen. I have decided to take the data at midnight GMT, which is 10am here until next Sunday when it will become 9am.
REMEMBER: DO NOT PRESS THE RED BUTTON! :D :blowup::evillaugh:

[FenceFurniture]

Well good luck in placing your faith in an accountant. I've worked with too many of them to fall into that trap.

And I'm going to fall into the trap of my many climate change industry fans here when I ask have you no regard for the financial wellbeing and future of your grandchildren and their grandchildren who may take decades to pay off the lavish cash splash currently being handed out by our socialist government that you approve of to preserve your selfish existence? You've already lived your three score years and ten, isn't it their turn?

Just kidding of course...A response from Planet Earth: maybe you should have worked with Economists instead. Maybe you didn't know they are as similar to accountants as doctors are to physicists?

[Tccp123]

A response from Planet Earth: maybe you should have worked with Economists instead. Maybe you didn't know they are as similar to accountants as doctors are to physicists?
???

[BobL]

Yes, but if I was one of those who was going to die in Dec of this year anyway I sure would appreciate those extra eight months and not die in April struggling for breath hooked up to a ventilator. Yes, I know either way that I would be a single stat for 2020, but those extra eight months would be nice!

Maybe and maybe not. When 93 YEAR MIL was struck down with congestive heart failure in May of 2018 and didn't pass away until March of 2019 having gone in and out of ICU 7 times until she put her foot down and said "I'm not going back there", I was fairly certain the wanted to depart long before then.

[FenceFurniture]

Really!

Respected economists like Chris Richardson are saying the reverse....
Well good luck in placing your faith in an accountant. I've worked with too many of them to fall into that trap.
???Chris Richardson would decline to do your Tax Return for you.

Google might have to be your friend if you are still confused.

[Tccp123]

Call 'em whatever you like, they're all accountants...

[AJ.]

One of the things that is prevalent through all of this is the number of statistics and numbers that are being thrown around both in relation to the virus itself, and the resulting economic response from various governments. One of the hardest things I find is to try and put everything into perspective with so many number and so many large numbers, but I have a way that I have personally found useful over the years that I thought I would share in order that it might help some get their own perspective on what is happening.

The basic premise is to convert numbers into seconds and then view them as time, I find it very useful. So here are a few conversions for you, starting with the smallest numbers and escalating from there, some of the numbers will be approximate and will change as this develops.

number of deaths 50,000 = 15 hrs 53 minutes
number of confirmed cases 1 million = 11.5 days
1 billion because its a round number = 31.7 years
world population 7.5 billion = 238 years
Australian stimulus package 320 billion = 10,147 years
US stimulus in US dollars 2 trillion = 63,419 years.

Make of those numbers what you will.

Cheers Andrew

[BobL]

Perth COVID19 hot spots
https://ww2.health.wa.gov.au/~/media/Images/Corporate/article%20images/Coronavirus/Maps/region-map.jpg

6 confirmed cases in my suburb (2 look like they're are at Curtin uni housing)
10 in a cluster around my sons place - don't tell DIL
A bit of clustering along the edges of the Swan River (wealthier suburbs) and training north up along the coast (Pommyville? :) )
Perhaps a few less in the newer southern suburbs.

[FenceFurniture]

Call 'em whatever you like, they're all accountants...That's....very revealing. :;

[Bushmiller]

Opportunity lost! :)

Agreed.


For Sale:

Set of four brass "master" padlocks. One careful lady owner (unwanted gift.)

470783

:wink:

Regards
Paul

[Tccp123]

Very few (none) comments about my post earlier today about the 2.5% wage increase for Queensland public service employees (and the $1,250 cash bonus). Can I assume that a lot of you work for the Qld government? (and would be welcoming this well deserved salary increase). I might add you also have job security during this difficult time and are probably "working from home" (wink wink) :)

[FenceFurniture]

From the Guardian blog, news out of Uganda:
President Yoweri Museveni imposed a 14-day virtual lockdown on Monday to try to clamp down on the spread of Covid-19, which infected 44 people in the East African country so far.

Private cars have been banned from roads during the period, with the government assisting expectant mothers and those in medical emergencies to secure transport to hospitals.

However, there are no functioning public ambulances, meaning that citizens are relying on private means to get to hospital.

[FenceFurniture]

This site shows some interesting data!

NextStrain.org (https://nextstrain.org/ncov)

e.g.



470770

Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus

470773

edit - visually it obvious the USA is about to be whacked by several mutations, all simultaneously.

VERY interesting stuff!!!!!WP, those graphs are several levels above my paygrade, so would you mind interpreting them? In particular how the whacking conclusion is drawn?

[BobL]

Perth COVID19 hot spots
https://ww2.health.wa.gov.au/~/media/Images/Corporate/article%20images/Coronavirus/Maps/region-map.jpg

6 confirmed cases in my suburb (2 look like they're are at Curtin uni housing)
10 in a cluster around my sons place - don't tell DIL .

These could all be from a known case that unknowingly before they developed symptoms went to the large local Woolies just before being diagnosed.

[ian]

One of the things that is prevalent through all of this is the number of statistics and numbers that are being thrown around both in relation to the virus itself, and the resulting economic response from various governments. One of the hardest things I find is to try and put everything into perspective with so many number and so many large numbers, but I have a way that I have personally found useful over the years that I thought I would share in order that it might help some get their own perspective on what is happening.

The basic premise is to convert numbers into seconds and then view them as time, I find it very useful. So here are a few conversions for you, starting with the smallest numbers and escalating from there, some of the numbers will be approximate and will change as this develops.

number of deaths 50,000 = 15 hrs 53 minutes
number of confirmed cases 1 million = 11.5 days
1 billion because its a round number = 31.7 years
Australian stimulus package 320 billion = 10,147 years
US stimulus in US dollars 2 trillion = 63,419 years.

Make of those numbers what you will.

Cheers AndrewAndrew

I'm not sure whether to thank you or not.

using your comparisons

number of confirmed cases 1 million = 11.5 days
1 billion because its a round number = 31.7 years with exponential growth 1 billion cases will be reached inside something like 40 days -- in this context sometime in early May 2020.

Remember that the basic characteristic of a pandemic is that number of cases grows exponentially.

[BobL]

Warning about some hands sanitisers and the importance of using added water ie raw method is not an affective hand sanitiser.

Many hand sanitisers are ineffective against coronavirus, experts warn - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-02/coronavirus-hand-sanitiser-may-not-be-effective/12110170)

[FenceFurniture]

Warning about some hands sanitisers and the importance of using added water ie raw metho is not an affective hand sanitiser.

Many hand sanitisers are ineffective against coronavirus, experts warn - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-02/coronavirus-hand-sanitiser-may-not-be-effective/12110170)They only say that water is necessary to make it "more effective" but don't explain how.

[Bushmiller]

They only say that water is necessary to make it "more effective" but don't explain how.

Brett

I think that reference to water related to 100% alcohol, which apparantly is not effective at that srength.

Regards
Paul

[FenceFurniture]

Yes, but why?

[Chesand]

Brett

I think that reference to water related to 100% alcohol, which apparantly is not effective at that srength.

Regards
Paul

It has long been accepted that 70% alcohol is the most effective strength so water is required to bring stronger alcohol down to that level

[A Duke]

Yes, but why?

Because

[FenceFurniture]

Let me phrase the question slightly differently then.

Why is 95-100% alcohol less effective than 70% alcohol. It seems counter-intuitive.

[woodPixel]

I believe it is to slow the rate of evaporation. I expect its also to aide the osmotic pressure on the cell wall?



Edit (about 10 minutes after first responding)

Here we are! DuckDuckGo to the resuce!

Why Is 70% Isopropyl Alcohol (IPA) a Better Disinfectant than 99% Isopropanol, and What Is IPA Used For? (https://blog.gotopac.com/2017/05/15/why-is-70-isopropyl-alcohol-ipa-a-better-disinfectant-than-99-isopropanol-and-what-is-ipa-used-for/)



Isopropyl alcohol, particularly in solutions between 60% and 90% alcohol with 10 – 40% purified water, is rapidly antimicrobial against bacteria, fungi, and viruses. Once alcohol concentrations drop below 50%, usefulness for disinfection drops sharply. Notably, higher concentrations of alcohol don’t generate more desirable bactericidal, virucidal, or fungicidal properties.


The presence of water is a crucial factor in destroying or inhibiting the growth of pathogenic microorganisms with isopropyl alcohol. Water acts as a catalyst and plays a key role in denaturing the proteins of vegetative cell membranes. 70% IPA solutions (https://www.gotopac.com/cleanpro-cp2701.html) penetrate the cell wall more completely which permeates the entire cell, coagulates all proteins, and therefore the microorganism dies. Extra water content slows evaporation, therefore increasing surface contact time and enhancing effectiveness. Isopropyl alcohol concentrations over 91% coagulate proteins instantly. Consequently, a protective layer is created which protects other proteins from further coagulation.


Solutions > 91% (https://blog.gotopac.com/2017/10/04/we-sell-99-isopropyl-alcohol-by-the-gallon-online-heres-how-to-get-the-best-price/) IPA do kill bacteria, but sometimes require longer contact times for disinfection, and enable spores to lie in a dormant state without being killed. In this analysis, a 50% isopropyl alcohol solution kills Staphylococcus Aureus in less than 10 seconds (pg. 238 (https://books.google.com/books?id=3f-kPJ17_TYC&pg=PA253&lpg=PA253&dq=chemical+sterilization+of+instruments+beard&source=bl&ots=KnDmMv7MF_&sig=Ev5skRe_uNP74lyq-gLyexMf8ms&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjBg4CAwobfAhXJ8YMKHTIyB10Q6AEwEHoECAkQAQ#v=onepage&q=50%25%20isopropanol&f=false)), yet a 90% solution with a contact time of over two hours is ineffective. Some disinfectants will kill spores, which are classified as chemical sterilants (https://blog.gotopac.com/2018/11/28/advantages-peracetic-acid-cleanroom-sterilization-disinfection/). So why do higher alcohol solutions yield fewer results for bactericidal and antimicrobial outcomes?

[Chesand]

Let me phrase the question slightly differently then.

Why is 95-100% alcohol less effective than 70% alcohol. It seems counter-intuitive.

I was taught about 70% being the best back in the 1950s but I can't recall if we were told the reason if indeed they knew then.
After all, my granddaughter used to ask me what it was like back in the dinosaur age. :D

[FenceFurniture]

Bewdy, thanks Ev.

[woodPixel]

Welcome Fencing dude!

It was a good question. I always assumed I knew the answer, but BobL has put me on my ass so often that I now question everything! :)


Speaking of questioning and knowing.... can anyone spot the one outlier in this screen grab from Worldometers (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries) just now?

Hint: ITS CHINA

470810

[FenceFurniture]

Ev, can I draw your attention to post #1145?



Hint: ITS CHINAPffft! Just all part of their quest for world dominance, but they having been leading the world in the bullsh stakes for a couple of decades.

[NeilS]

Warning about some hands sanitisers and the importance of using added water ie raw method is not an affective hand sanitiser.

Many hand sanitisers are ineffective against coronavirus, experts warn - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-02/coronavirus-hand-sanitiser-may-not-be-effective/12110170)

I used this formula from the WHO (https://www.who.int/gpsc/5may/Guide_to_Local_Production.pdf) webpage (I think Bob originally posted that) to make up my hand sanitiser mix. It adds just under 20% by volume of water.

I think (but do not know) that the issue with too higher a proportion of alcohol mixtures is that it evaporates off the hands too quickly to provide the required 10-15 seconds exposure time to denature the virus proteins.

[BobL]

Welcome Fencing dude!

It was a good question. I always assumed I knew the answer, but BobL has put me on my ass so often that I now question everything! :)


Speaking of questioning and knowing.... can anyone spot the one outlier in this screen grab from Worldometers (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries) just now?


Apart from a bit of hand waving I would be very wary of using this data to compare countries at this stage
For a start not all countries are on the same part of the pandemic curve.

Then, for large countries like China,, AUS and USA especially in (semi) lock down situations the variability in the country itself can be very large.

Perhaps a more reliable way come to grips with what is going on is by region or state. In this case the 60 odd million inhabitants in Hubei have had about 3000 deaths so their death rate is more like 500 - this has nothing to do with the Chinese govt but more to do with whoever is drawing up those tables.

Even in a relatively small, highly infected country like Italy (current death rate of 218 per million) the death rates across regions are quite large
eg Lombardy has a death rate of about 700/million whereas in the very adjacent region of Veneto their date rate is about 1/7th of this.
800 km away in the southern Apuglia regional of Italy the death rate is about 1/23rd that of Lombardy

Remember it's the regional or even local town/suburb death rates that matters more to an individuals risk. What goes on elsewhere in locked down situations has a much reduced impact on their risks.

We can't really do AUS state by state comparisons yet because the death rates are too low - which I guess itself says something. Maybe something to do with seniors being more careful and the 20-40 age group being the more careless ones?

[NeilS]

470780


And the WHO are now also doing an hmmmmm... on that too.

WHO considers changing guidance on wearing face masks | World news | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/all-uk-hospital-staff-and-patients-should-wear-masks-says-doctors-group)


I have a few spare in my workshop, but they are not going to last long if this goes on as long as they are suggesting.

Might have to resort to my 3M respirator... that's going to scatter the other shoppers in the Woolworth aisles!


470822

[BobL]

The face mask wearing advice was IMHO 99% founded on preventing vital limited supplies of masks being hoarded by the community over the needs of medical people that really need them. Once masks are readily available I reckon everyone should be using them - they might only be a 1/2% factor but at this stage in the battle we need every 1/2% we can t get.

This vid shows that just talking loudly generates lots of droplets in the air.
Microdroplets pose coronavirus risk | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News (https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/ataglance/844/)

[GraemeCook]

Apart from a bit of hand waving I would be very wary of using this data to compare countries at this stage
For a start not all countries are on the same part of the pandemic curve.

Then, for large countries like China,, AUS and USA especially in (semi) lock down situations the variability in the country itself can be very large......



Very informative article on the BBC discussing the many causes of the apparent variances in fatality rates between countries.
Coronavirus: Why death and mortality rates differ - BBC Future (https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200401-coronavirus-why-death-and-mortality-rates-differ)

They explicitly compared Italy and China.
The crude fatality rate in Italy is 7.2%.
The crude death rate in China is 2.3%, less than a third that of Italy.
"... But from the ages of zero to 69, the two country’s case fatality rates are comparable, note researchers from the Istituto Superiore di Sanità in Rome....".
The difference in fatality rates occurs almost totally in those over 70 years of age.
China has comparatively few older people. "...In 2019, nearly a quarter of the Italian population was 65 years or older, compared to only 11% in China....".

A seventy year old today would have been born c.1950. The life expectancy at birth for someone born 1950-55 was:

Australia - 69.37 years,
China - 43.83 years,
Italy - 66.52 years.

Essentially this is suggesting that the most vulnerable Chinese would have already died before they could be a victim of the coronavirus.
[Source: UN figures quoted in ]Bad title - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_life_expectancy)

[BobL]

Another major difference between Italy and Oz is that many Italian seniors live with their extended family. My Italian mum (has moderate dementia, also thinks she still lives in Italy) was aghast when we set her up in in a Dementia care facility. "Whats the point of having 10 kids when then send you off to go a live with strangers etc etc. . . . ."

But it's not just about losing seniors, losing half a hundred specialist doctors and scores of nurses from just one hospital, is dare I say more significant - these people will cost a fortune and a decade to replace. It's like losing pilots during the battle of Britain - these people are true heroes. "Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few"

[GraemeCook]

.... "Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few"

...

[BobL]

A seventy year old today would have been born c.1950. The life expectancy at birth for someone born 1950-55 was:

Australia - 69.37 years,
China - 43.83 years,
Italy - 66.52 years.

Essentially this is suggesting that the most vulnerable Chinese would have already died before they could be a victim of the coronavirus.
[Source: UN figures quoted in ]Bad title - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_life_expectancy)

Not quite, longevity is a complex thing and early removal from the gene pool could be due to many factors; famine, displeasing the political masters, playing with too many crackers, diet, lifestyle, being in the way of a large village cart, helping out in the vietnamese war etc. The seniors that get towards the end of their life could be just as fragile and health compromised as any other seniors population.

OTOH my limited experience of travelling in China was that I did not see anywhere near as many obese and overweight people as I did in Italy, Oz or USA. Lots of seniors also outside doing organised exercises in public spaces (or I assume working manually on small farms etc).

The average senior Italian that lives in cities would live a life of minimal exercise not unlike AUS/Oz. Those that live in the countryside are probably fitter, they live in multi-storey houses so have to climb multiple flights of stairs. Many are gardeners and walkers and those that live anywhere near mountains often have an interest in walking/hiking even climbing.

[ian]

Not quite, longevity is a complex thing and early removal from the gene pool could be due to many factors; famine, displeasing the political masters, playing with too many crackers, diet, lifestyle, being in the way of a large village cart, helping out in the vietnamese war etc. The seniors that get towards the end of their life could be just as fragile and health compromised as any other seniors population.
BobL you've left out the possible major variable -- exposure to communicable diseases like polio, measles, mumps, whooping cough, etc -- these are largely childhood killers get infected early in live and either die or survive with compromised immune systems.

VACCINES were the longevity enhances in the west well before they were available in places like China.

[NeilS]

....60 odd million inhabitants in Hubei have had about 3000 deaths so their death rate is more like 500



Less one zero.

And, if you compare that with other regions with populations of about 60m then Hubei Provence did OK as a first responder without the benefit of learning from the experience of others, although China did experience some of the earlier epidemics.

Not that I'm a great fan of China's political system, but what I think is impressive is that they have kept the epidemic to a very low level in their other provinces which when combined have a population of 1.4bn people, twice that of Europe. Had Europe and the US (our main sources of infection) paid closer attention to how China was handling the epidemic the world would be in a much better place now.

[BobL]

Here's another interesting Graph with a 5 day average
From Is Australia flattening the coronavirus curve? Look at the charts ... | Australia news | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/2020/apr/01/is-australia-flattening-the-coronavirus-curve-look-at-the-charts-)

470825

[BobL]

Here's another interesting Graph with a 5 day average
From Is Australia flattening the coronavirus curve? Look at the charts ... | Australia news | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/2020/apr/01/is-australia-flattening-the-coronavirus-curve-look-at-the-charts-)

470825

[FenceFurniture]

I saw that this morning. We are looking pretty good over the last week, so let's hope that continues. Given that it apparently takes 3 weeks to die, the deaths graphs would take a while to show the same trend, but OTOH our deaths have been so minimal (so far) as to probably be classed as insufficient data.

[BobL]

A few people have asked me about my Italian family so thought it would be easier to respond here.

As of this morning all are OK. I have 9 Uncles and Aunts (all over 70 except for one aunt who is a couple of years younger then me and unfortunately she is the frailest of the lot) and dozens of cousins in Northern Italy. None are in Lombardy.

Mums family are mainly in the Veneto region (second highest testing per inhabitant in the world after Iceland, with ~100 deaths per million) which is next to Lombardy (more than 700 deaths per million). The older relatives might not even tell anyone if they had COVID19 - they are very superstitious about disease. One of my Aunts died of Lung cancer about 5 years ago and I met her 3 times while she had it and she never mentioned it once - she called it "her illness". The younger generation is much more open about it.

Dads rellies are mainly in Trento in the alps so are much more isolated and also have fewer medical facilities. They have 173 deaths/million but they also have an older population profile. They readily admit if they have have something.

Everyone is seriously locked down. It's been quite sobering to be peeking occasionally into the heart of the abyss. The FB traffic is relentless mix of humour, craziness, sarcasm and tragedy. I am amazed no one I know has not been struck down.

[Tccp123]

Finally met someone today who knows someone with CV.

[Tccp123]

Sorry Bob but...

Jacinda Ardern for PM

[GraemeCook]

.....
Hint: ITS CHINA
.......


??? Worldometers is a Chinese website based in Shanghai.

[FenceFurniture]

Might have to resort to my 3M respirator... that's going to scatter the other shoppers in the Woolworth aisles!


470822
Prolly best not to do your banking wearing that.

[Chesand]

12 hours since the last post????

[BobL]

Interesting article about analysing COVID19 data and the caution require in interpretation.
Scott Morrison says the coronavirus curve is flattening. Are we turning the corner? - Fact Check - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-03/fact-file-are-we-turning-coronavirus-corner-flatten-the-curv/12113410)

Basically says we're too early in the infection stage to draw many conclusions.
and
As I said before this could be the small wave before the tsunami.

[NeilS]

12 hours since the last post????

Yes, it has gone a bit quiet.

Have we all gone down with it?

[Chesand]

Yes, it has gone a bit quiet.

Have we all gone down with it?

I wasn't game to ask that question.

[Tccp123]

I see QLD now has 835 known infections. That’s out of a population of 5,000,000 or 1 in 6000. Let’s make it 2 in 12,000 because it sounds better ��.

So venturing out yesterday I feel I was really rolling the dice. However to have become infected I would have had to have contact with one of those two people out of the 12,000 I interacted with yesterday, then I would have had to catch it from them, then I would have had to be in the “at risk” group, then I would have to be one of the 4% in the “at risk” group who will probably die.

That's a lot of "ifs"

But of course if those 835 people have been identified then it would be safe to assume they’re not walking around freely interacting with other people.

But wait I hear you saying, what about the sleepers? Of course they are the great unknown and the thing that will continue to give this thing legs. There could be thousands of them out there. You just don't know...

[Tccp123]

I see the WHO has been exposed for what it is, a politically motivated organisation driven by cheque book idealism.

Reminds me of a Roger Rogerson quote when describing the NSW police force back in the '80s "The best police force money could buy" :-)

[poundy]

I see QLD now has 835 known infections. That’s out of a population of 5,000,000 or 1 in 6000. Let’s make it 2 in 12,000 because it sounds better ��.

So venturing out yesterday I feel I was really rolling the dice. However to have become infected I would have had to have contact with one of those two people out of the 12,000 I interacted with yesterday, then I would have had to catch it from them, then I would have had to be in the “at risk” group, then I would have to be one of the 4% in the “at risk” group who will probably die.

That's a lot of "ifs"

Sorry, you are WRONG.
Partly correct, but mostly wrong.
This bit is correct, mostly:

However to have become infected I would have had to have contact with one of those two people out of the 12,000 I interacted with yesterday, then I would have had to catch it from them
You wouldn't have had to interact with them, you would have just had to be exposed to droplets containing the virus and had them find a path to your bloodstream. So they sneeze and get goopies on the handrail going into the library, an hour or two later you come past and lean on the rail to get up the stairs easier, then you scratch at your nose as you open the door. Bam.
This bit:

then I would have had to be in the “at risk” group, then I would have to be one of the 4% in the “at risk” group who will probably die.
isn't necessary to be one of the statistics.
Spouting stuff like this leads me to believe you think this is all $hits and giggles and you're safe. You aren't. Sure, you might come through this all ok at the end of it, but your blase approach can have serious consequences for others in the community if you don't take it serious.

[Tccp123]

isn't necessary to be one of the statistics. Spouting stuff like this leads me to believe you think this is all $hits and giggles and you're safe. You aren't. Sure, you might come through this all ok at the end of it, but your blase approach can have serious consequences for others in the community if you don't take it serious.

You can't avoid being one of the statistics, we're all destined to be part of them. What I'm trying to get you to understand is that the statistics are on your side.

[BobL]

Well it appears that "wearing masks" will soon be almost as strong a message as "wash hands".
I hope they back it up with a half decent education campaign.

Coronavirus can spread through talking or breathing, prestigious panel tells White House - CNN (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/02/health/aerosol-coronavirus-spread-white-house-letter/index.html)


Dr. Harvey Fineberg, chairman of a committee with the National Academy of Sciences told CNN that he will wear start wearing a mask when he goes to the grocery store.
"I'm not going to wear a surgical mask, because clinicians need those," said Fineberg, former dean of the Harvard School of Public Health. "But I have a nice western-style bandana I might wear. Or I have a balaclava. I have some pretty nice options."

CDC are apparently going to be making a statement about masks in the near future.
WHO are also re-considering the whole masks for the public thing.
OK they are in desperate straights but the Mayor of New York has also made masks a recommendation.

I'm thinking about wearing mine while using Zoom. :D

https://www.woodworkforums.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=470606&d=1585384236

[Tccp123]

Well it appears that "wearing masks" will soon be almost as strong a message as "wash hands". I hope they back it up with a half decent education campaign.

The Mayor of New York has also made masks a recommendation.

If nothing else encourages to question things surely this does. Two weeks ago the "experts" were telling us masks were a waste of time. Now the experts (which apparently now includes the mayor of New York) are saying they are almost mandatory. Is it the same experts? Is it different experts? (and who gives them that expert qualification)?

The message I've tried to spread here (to no avail it would seem) is to question EVERYTHING. Don't believe anything you're told or read without giving it the utmost scrutiny. Not everything the experts say is fact, often it's an opinion clouded by the same fears that drive the rest of us.

[GraemeCook]

...

I'm thinking about wearing mine while using Zoom. :D
....




Good idea. Computers are full of viruses.

[BobL]

If nothing else encourages to question things surely this does. Two weeks ago the "experts" were telling us masks were a waste of time. Now the experts (which apparently now includes the mayor of New York) are saying they are almost mandatory. Is it the same experts? Is it different experts? (and who gives them that expert qualification)?

OK you can leave the Mayor of NY out if you like but Fienberg is representing the NAS and I would not be sneezing at them. Besides the Mayor of NY is a very smart fella on the end of a very pointy stick in the middle of a serious battle field and will be reflecting the advice of his medical experts.


The message I've tried to spread here (to no avail it would seem) is to question EVERYTHING. Don't believe anything you're told or read without giving it the utmost scrutiny. Not everything the experts say is fact, often it's an opinion clouded by the same fears that drive the rest of us.

We need to keep in mind that there are hidden agendas and things will often change (rapidly) in time - you cannot expect even expert advice to stand still otherwise we'd still be in the flat earth zone. When the national stock pile of surgical masks was run down and totally incapable of meeting the needs of medical staff it is not unreasonable to promote the idea of not wearing masks.

Every Pandemic is different and it takes time to understand its transmission, infection etc. The latest bluff is, "wearing masks can be dangerous" but so can washing hands incorrectly, so we mounted a major washing hands campaign. So - get thine ass off the ground and mount a "how to wear masks campaign" it's not that hard and at least the half reasonable will pay attention and maybe do it, the others . . . . . . well, at the very least it may thin the idiots out of the herd.

[GraemeCook]

Well it appears that "wearing masks" will soon be almost as strong a message as "wash hands".
I hope they back it up with a half decent education campaign.....



As I understand it, Bob, masks reduce the risk of infection, but do not eliminate it. Thus there is a risk of creating a false sense of security, especially among the more foolhardy.

Secondly, there is the issue of the supply of masks. There is a major supply shortage and available stock should be reserved for front line emmergency workers. They are accepting quite high risks as part of their professional responsibilities - we, collectively, must not reduce their protective equipment.

I know my GP is concerned about supplies of basics - masks, gowns, gloves and hand sanitiser.

The numbers involved are prodigeous. A few weeks ago when things were just ramping up, the Minister for Health announced that the government had ordered 100,000 masks - a big number! The Dentists Association president then said that dentists alone used 9.5 million masks a year. [Comment: Suppose a dentists sees 20 patients in a day - both he and his dental nurse are masked = 40 masks per day - 250 working days in a year = 10,000 masks. Just one dentist might routinely use 10,000 masks in a year.]

Until there is an adequate supply of masks we must reserve the limited supplies for our front line professionals.

[Tccp123]

We need to keep in mind that there are hidden agendas and things will often change (rapidly) in time - you cannot expect even expert advice to stand still otherwise we'd still be in the flat earth zone. When the national stock pile of surgical masks was run down and totally incapable of meeting the needs of medical staff it is not unreasonable to promote the idea of not wearing masks.

Every Pandemic is different and it takes time to understand its transmission, infection etc. The latest bluff is, "wearing masks can be dangerous" but so can washing hands incorrectly, so we mounted a major washing hands campaign. So - get thine ass off the ground and mount a "how to wear masks campaign" it's not that hard and at least the half reasonable will pay attention and maybe do it, the others . . . . . . well, at the very least it may thin the idiots out of the herd.

Hidden agendas? You don't have to look very far:

"China stockpiled more than 2 billion surgical masks and essential medical supplies in a global panic buy now impacting the worldwide shortage of protective equipment."

"How WHO Became China’s Coronavirus Accomplice. Beijing is pushing to become a public health superpower—and quickly found a willing international partner."

Doesn't take a real good mathematician to put 2 + 2 together here.

[BobL]

I not sure pointing fingers, apportioning blame and chewing the fat over conspiracy theories does much towards an individuals immediate or even longer term problems.


Until there is an adequate supply of masks we must reserve the limited supplies for our front line professionals.

Or make your own. It appears even a bandana or a pair of (newish - unused) undies is better than nothing.

We just had our first mens shed Zoom meeting with 10 attendees, a bit disjointed, but otherwise OK. Its been working better with the smaller group (3-4 people) I have been using Zom with over the last 3 weeks. Interestingly SWMBO was on Zoom with her pals at the same time - seemed to work fine.

[BobL]

Current WHO guidelines for masks. When and how to use masks (https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks)

"If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection."Note it says "need" , it doesn't say "should not" wear a mask otherwise.
My take on it is pretty basic
- how do you know if the dude or dudette standing in front / behind you in the supermarket checkout lane doesn't know they are infected, or someone who is a confirmed COVID19 infectee who has broken quarantine?
- how do you know you are not infected and not showing symptoms and spreading it around to everyone else.

"Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing."
As far as SWMBO is concerned being so susceptible to allergies that is about 50% of the time.

"Masks are effective only when used in combination with frequent hand-cleaning with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water
" If you wear a mask, then you must know how to use it and dispose of it properly."
This should be a part of a comprehensive education campaign.

Of course it goes without saying that masks are not an excuse to go slack on everything else - like WW masks they should go on top of everything else.

[poundy]

What I am still trying to articulate to you is that if everyone is complacent, because they think that the statistics are on their side, then the problem gets worse, not better.


You can't avoid being one of the statistics, we're all destined to be part of them. What I'm trying to get you to understand is that the statistics are on your side.
If you're talking about the chances of dying, then sure, I agree that the chances are not 100% just because you went to the supermarket/library/someplace where others were, but that is not the issue. The issue truly is how quickly we all get hit with this, and stopping that from causing a worse mortality rate through lack of resources to cater for the infection rate.

The guidance is clear - minimise interactions and be cautions.

We all know that cars kill a lot of people on the roads every year. If we were worried that this was a real issue, we would say don't ever go out in a car ever again; but the usual guidance is that yes there's a clear risk but be cautious and take care. That's not saying that removes all risk, just that it lessens it. This situation isn't like normal, however - it's more like vehicles on the road have no traction, and the guidance is now if you're on the road more than necessary, you're not contributing to prevention.

[Tccp123]

I not sure pointing fingers, apportioning blame and chewing the fat over conspiracy theories does much towards an individuals immediate or even longer term problems.

I totally disagree. People and organisations need to be held to account. Not holding them to account allows them to flourish (as has happened with the WHO) and does nothing to stop events like this occurring in the future.

That's why we're in the pickle we're now in. Research their 2009 response to the swine flu pandemic or the Ebola outbreak in 2014. This is from an organisation with more than 5500 employees and a budget in the billions.

We should question what is being achieved by this cumbersome organisation, and whether its vast budget could and should be better spent.

[Fekit]

If nothing else encourages to question things surely this does. Two weeks ago the "experts" were telling us masks were a waste of time. Now the experts (which apparently now includes the mayor of New York) are saying they are almost mandatory. Is it the same experts? Is it different experts? (and who gives them that expert qualification)?

I've gotta tell you, it's tiring. I've had an absolute # gutful of listening to people WHO probably wear slip on shoes, seriously.

If, from the very start of this fiasco we had some of that ....what do you call it.....???? oh yeah..leadership, we wouldn't be within cooee of where we're at, at the moment, medically or financially.

[Tccp123]

I've gotta tell you, it's tiring. I've had an absolute # gutful of listening to people WHO probably wear slip on shoes, seriously.

If, from the very start of this fiasco we had some of that ....what do you call it.....???? oh yeah..leadership, we wouldn't be within cooee of where we're at, at the moment, medically or financially.

Unfortunately that person already has a job...in the US.

[NeilS]

What I'm trying to get you to understand is that the statistics are on your side.







I see QLD now has 835 known infections. That’s out of a population of 5,000,000 or 1 in 6000. Let’s make it 2 in 12,00 because it sounds better ��.



If you express the 'known' infection rate as 1 in 6,000 residents that can lead to false thinking like, as an individual, I have a 1 in 6,000 chance of catching it. Besides the issue that you have identified about the unknown number of real carriers, every carrier can infect multiple people. The estimates of the transmission rates (R0) for this virus range from an average of 1.4 to 4.0 other people for each carrier (source here (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?#repro)). The transmission rates can vary for obvious reasons. What the 6,000 uninfected people need to ask themselves is, how many of us can be infected by just one carrier. If we take say 2.75 for example as a possible contagion rate, then the answer would be 2.75 people, so now there are 2,181 uninfected people per carrier, roll the dice again and there will be 2,181 ÷ 2.75, and roll it again.... that is the nature of exponential growth.

The stats will quickly not be on our side!

The other problem I have with expressing infection rates in terms of 'what are my chances of catching this virus as an individual' is that it is lends itself to self-centred and counterproductive ways of viewing the problem. When the herd is being attacked what is need is herd thinking and action to reduce the problem. We are seeing it in spades worldwide and rightly so. Measures such as doubling rates are a far more useful and appropriate way of measuring what is happening to the herd*.

If you calculate QLD's cases expressed as a rate per million of its population then the focus can come back on the collective where the solutions have to be found. It also allows more readily for comparisons against other populations, So, it's 167/m of QLDers, below the 207/m for Australia, but just above 165/m for NZ, and 130/m for the world, and way above the 57/m for China.

*PS - I know some individuals hate to be considered as part of a herd, that is until they need access to the scarce resources that only a herd can provide, like ICU beds during a pandemic.

[BobL]

I totally disagree. People and organisations need to be held to account. Not holding them to account allows them to flourish (as has happened with the WHO) and does nothing to stop events like this occurring in the future. That's why we're in the pickle we're now in. Research their 2009 response to the swine flu pandemic or the Ebola outbreak in 2014. This is from an organisation with more than 5500 employees and a budget in the billions.
We should question what is being achieved by this cumbersome organisation, and whether its vast budget could and should be better spent.

All international organisations are cumbersome because there are always cultural issues, internal and external politics, language and self interest problems involved - there is absolutely no getting around these. I've raised/discussed this several times before in these forums. The practical question is would we be better off without them - on balance I'd say not. I've been on international science panels for over 20 years so I know a fair bit about how they work. It's 90% international relations and 10% science and can be very disheartening. But I would still rather have them than not.

Anyway, no mount of finger pointing, and moaning and groaning about this is going to help individuals over the next year.

[GraemeCook]

...

Reminds me of a Roger Rogerson quote when describing the NSW police force back in the '80s "The best police force money could buy" :-)


Really.... That "quote" was widely used in the promotion of the Underbelly TV series. But attribution of that "quote" actually dates back at least to Mayor Richard Daley in Chicago in the 1950's, but its origin was almost certainly earlier.

[FenceFurniture]

So they sneeze and get goopies on the handrail going into the library, an hour or two later you come past and lean on the rail to get up the stairs easier, then you scratch at your nose as you open the door. Bam.It's worse than that poundy. The current research concludes that it can live on hard surfaces like plastic and stainless steel for up to 72 hours. However, I think the chances of Tccp123 getting it from the library door are nil (and not just because they might be shut).



Doesn't take a real good mathematician to put 2 + 2 together here.
If nothing else encourages to question things surely this does. Two weeks ago the "experts" were telling us masks were a waste of time. Now the experts (which apparently now includes the mayor of New York) are saying they are almost mandatory. Is it the same experts? Is it different experts? (and who gives them that expert qualification)?Well, on a difficulty level of 2+2 which should appeal to you: the situation in NY (esp the city) is much more dangerous than anywhere else, and much more dangerous than it was 2 weeks ago. One of the key factors in acquiring the virus to the infection point is HOW MUCH virus you are exposed to. This is why medical staff are in so much danger - they are surrounded by it. As the case numbers in NY get out of control the situation becomes much more dangerous. So because the curve is not being helped or helpful in NY they have to go to the next level of wearing masks.


The message I've tried to spread here (to no avail it would seem) is to question EVERYTHING. Don't believe anything you're told or read without giving it the utmost scrutiny. Not everything the experts say is fact, often it's an opinion clouded by the same fears that drive the rest of us.There is NOTHING wrong with questioning EVERYTHING. However, there is EVERYTHING wrong with doing NOTHING while you are waiting for your answers to appear.


As for not believing what I read: when it comes to the words of someone who doesn't understand that even at the most basic level, accountants are completely different to economists, you can be absolutely guaranteed that I won't believe what they say, especially quotes without sources, and other quotes that are heavily edited to make it appear quite different to the original meaning.