CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[Lappa]

:D
I've been a participant in the annual national (regular/seasonal) flu tracker program for a few years.

Flutracking.net | Tracking Influenza Across Australia and New Zealand (https://info.flutracking.net)

If you join you get a weekly email reminder/link to click on to answer half a dozen yes-no questions about flu like symptoms.
It takes about 30s each week to participate - very easy.

Normally this survey starts in mid April each year but this year because of COVID19 they started tracking earlier.
These are the results so far.
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Its early days but it looks like flu like symptoms in the community are lower than usual and one might then ask why?
It's too early for the early release of the regular flu vaccine to have had an effect.
Perhaps it's due to people staying at home, washing their hands and participating in social distancing.
If this continues there will be fewer people getting (and dying from) the regular flu so maybe the relatively few people (so far) dying from COVID will be compensated for by fewer regular flu victims?

Flu tracker also shows where various symptoms are located around AUS. This is the cough and fever data.
the data is by post code and the map on the Flu Tracker website can be zoomed in on see finer detail.
Looks like North Island NZ is getting knocked around a bit.


Maybe the low number is because people are reluctant to admit they have a slight fever or cough incase they are accused of having Covid :D

[BobL]

:D

Maybe the low number is because people are reluctant to admit they have a slight fever or cough incase they are accused of having Covid :D

Yeah - maybe - but I kinda think they might be balanced out by the excess of hypochondriacs that often participate in these self selective surveys :oo:.

SWMBO is on her next model of face mask that utilises pieces of the 14 "still in the boxes" Miele Hyclean vac bags we found at MILs during the big clean out.
The mask consists of a tight weave cotton envelope that holds a piece of the Hyclean bag. The claim on these bags is 99.9% of all fine dust - whatever that means (no particle sizes given) , and as I have the test gear I will be measuring this as soon as I get organised.

[woodPixel]

PS: At least one person in workplace gets me to test his programmes. His claim is that if they survive me, they are bulletproof.

Absolutely.

I've run teams and been a programming grunt for ages :) Some people, just some, are called "Tods".

Everything Tod does ends in wreckage and flames. They are highly valuable and often sought out and kept like pets :)

..... Touch Of Death.

:)

[woodPixel]

SWMBO is on her next model of face mask that utilises pieces of the 14 "still in the boxes" Miele Hyclean vac bags we found at MILs during the big clean out.
The mask consists of a tight weave cotton envelope that holds a piece of the Hyclean bag. The claim on these bags is 99.9% of all fine dust - whatever that means, and as I have the test gear I will be measuring this as soon as I get organised.

Ha! Funny you should mention this. I saw on some medical forum that is EXACTLY what they are doing.

I noted it as I've a few spare Miele Hyclean bags. The Vac itself is great, but the bags are very nice indeed. Cheap on eBay too.... the knockoffs are cheap, but the originals are cheap enough not to worry too much about the difference.

SWMBO asked a few weeks ago if they could be used for masks.

Funny how things come together! Keen to hear the results of your testing dude.

[NeilS]

I look forward to finally seeing the modelling that is being used here in Australia.



We have now had the briefing, but without the modelling!

The slides used during the briefing weren't readable for one reason and another, so a copy is attached. It doesn't say much.

Supposedly the actual modeling will be released by the Doherty Institute later today.

[doug3030]

Does anyone know if FenceFurniture is ok?

He has not posted for two days, which seems a little unusual.

[NeilS]

Does anyone know if FenceFurniture is ok?

He has not posted for two days, which seems a little unusual.

He is currently sitting on an average of 2.81 posts to the forums a day, so definitely not his usual form.

Missing in action, presumed ........ ???

Came back Brett, we didn't mean it!

[GraemeCook]

Trying to put coronavirus in perspective. Total confirmed cases passing 1,350,000 and virus deaths almost 75,000.

When the world population was much less than present, the Great Bubonic Plague spread though Eurasia killing an estimated 75 - 200 million people peaking between 1347 and 1351.

One common theory was that the plague was spread by miasmas, and that to prevent infection you had to filter out those gases.

471095

471093























































Those beaks apparently were filled with fragrant flower petals, spices and herbs to filter out the dangerous miasmas and smells.

Now I would hate to offend Bob by suggesting that one could incorporate a sachel of fragrant herbs, spices and herbs in a mask made from his budgie smugglers.

[BobL]

One common theory was that the plague was spread by miasmas, and that to prevent infection you had to filter out those gases. Now I would hate to offend Bob by suggesting that one could incorporate a sachel of fragrant herbs, spices and herbs in a mask made from his budgie smugglers.

It might need more than a satchel of FHS in those.

[FenceFurniture]

He is currently sitting on an average of 2.81 posts to the forums a day, so definitely not his usual form.

Missing in action, presumed ........ ???

Came back Brett, we didn't mean it!Wazzup? Been working on other stuff. (although I think one or two did actually mean it...:roll:).

There hasn't been much to comment on, particularly as the white noise has died off.

[NeilS]

Trying to put coronavirus in perspective. When the world population was much less than present, the Great Bubonic Plague spread though Eurasia killing an estimated 75 - 200 million people peaking between 1347 and 1351.

One common theory was that the plague was spread by miasmas, and that to prevent infection you had to filter out those gases.



And the Plague kept returning repeatedly right up into the 17th Century. Some of my family history gives me a further perspective on the sheer scale of those pandemics.

Basel in Switzerland was hit very hard by successive returns of the Plague there in the sixteenth century. My ancestor, Adam Bodenstein, was a professor of medicine at Basel University and he died himself of the Plague in 1577 in the same year that he published his theory on how to treat it in his Herrlicher Philosophischer rhatschlag zu curirn Pestilentz. His first wife, Esther Weiss, and many of their children had died in the 1564 Plague as had his father, Andreas Bodenstein, before him in the 1541 Plague. His father had succumbed to the Plague while ministering to those who were afflicted with it. Up to half of the population of Basel is thought to have perished in some Plague years. Fortunately for me one of his daughters survived the Basel plagues, otherwise I wouldn't be here...:)

Understanding the causes of the 'Pestilence' and how to avoid and treat it was one of the great challenges of the early modern era, but obviously my ancestors interest in finding a cure was not purely driven by academic interest. Despite the best efforts of the medical profession in the 16th century, their theories about the Plague and how to treat it were completely wrong, as was most of their thinking about disease. It would be another three centuries before scientists like Jenner and Pasteur developed the first vaccines and the germ theory of disease became established to replace the 'miasma' theory.

No doubt my ancestor would have donned one of those scary beak outfits while treating Plague patients. If you didn't die of the Plague itself the fright you would receive from having a doctor approaching you with that outfit on and issuing exotic smells was probably enough!

[woodPixel]

Those masks may become quite fashionable again :)

[woodPixel]

I'm curios. With the masks and the infusions they put in them, they would have been guesswork, but that guesswork must have been from knowledge built upon.

Were there records of the concoctions used?

I read just then about pneumonic plague on Wikipedia.

I thought that if y.pestis were the cause, there must have been a carrier, either people or animals.... if those concoctions had some sort of astringent effect at deterring fleas?......



Imagine, like NeilS' families experience, of being hit again and again and again and again. Life must have been lived fulsomely every day one received!*


* then again, there were the vigorous... efforts... of re-population required ;)

[BobL]

I'm curios. With the masks and the infusions they put in them, they would have been guesswork, but that guesswork must have been from knowledge built upon.

Were there records of the concoctions used?

I read just then about pneumonic plague on Wikipedia.
I thought that if y.pestis were the cause, there must have been a carrier, either people or animals.... if those concoctions had some sort of astringent effect at deterring fleas?......

Doubt it. They though it came through the air hence the masks. And the plethora of pefumieres.

Hey interesting graph here for COVID19 deaths.
471117

Small numbers, and although more men are dying from COVID19 than women, its interesting to see the majority of men are dying in their usual age range 80-89 but the majority of women during are dying between 70-79 which is about 15 years younger than usual.
The reason so few men are dying in their 90s is probably because there's not many men left in that cohort compared to women.

[Bushmiller]

[QUOTE=BobL;2181720
The reason so few men are dying in their 90s is probably because there's not many men left in that cohort compared to women.[/QUOTE]

Oh. And I thought it was because man flu is so much worse than the flu that afflicts women.

:wink:

Regards
Paul

[NeilS]

Supposedly the actual modeling will be released by the Doherty Institute later today.



OK, finally out.

https://www.doherty.edu.au/uploads/content_doc/McVernon_Modelling_COVID-19_07Apr1_with_appendix.pdf

It is very clear based on this modelling why the strict social distancing measures were adopted.

And why it is not good to a 70+ yr old..... :C

[Bushmiller]

And why it is not good to a 70+ yr old..... :C


Phew.

I'm right. Only 69 2/3rds. :)

Come August. :(

Stay safe everyone. Only joking.

Regards
Paul

[Lappa]

Oh. And I thought it was because man flu is so much worse than the flu that afflicts women.

:wink:

Regards
Paul
Was that written by Mrs Bushmiller?:D

[Bushmiller]

Was that written by Mrs Bushmiller?:D

No. But there may be some reflection of her sentiments there and indeed those of most women. :wink:

The irony here is that usually, and I do have to stress usually, I am not afflicted with the flu or colds etc. However last year I did get a flu or more likely a bad cold (we chuck the "flu" term around a little carelessly) I was out for a few days. This followed SWMBO with her "flu", which persisted for more than three weeks. I am still 24 years old and bullet proof. I just don't look that way anymore! :( .(I have far fewer days off sick than my colleagues at work, who are all younger. :cool:)



Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

I am still 24 years old and bullet proof.

Me too!

[poundy]

me three. oops, no, wait, that has passed, I know what's coming.......

[Chesand]

I am still 24 years old and bullet proof.

I wish I was but alas!! :rolleyes::rolleyes:

[NeilS]

I previously posted a link to some modelling on bed, ICU, ventilator and predicted deaths in the US. So far it has been tracking closely to the predictions. Here is the link again. The third graph shows total deaths.

COVID-19 (https://covid19.healthdata.org/)



That modelling is still tracking quite closely with the actual data as it comes in showing early signs that they are starting to drop just very slightly below the projections.

The significance of looking at this for the US is that, unlike the situation here, they do have enough data now to verify the projection of about 80,000 deaths there. This will change as real data is added to their modelling.

In looking at the third graph remember that the US is behind us by about a day. eg as I write it is 9.30am on the 8th here and 8pm on the 7th in New York, so in this instance compare the projection for the 7th with the published data on places like Worldometer that update after midnight GMT+0.

[NeilS]

Life must have been lived fulsomely every day one received!*

* then again, there were the vigorous... efforts... of re-population required ;)



Not wrong there, that ancestor had 14 children..... with a little help from three wives and one mistress!

And, even taking into account the fatalities among those children from the plague, etc., the number of his descendants could now be in the tens of millions (https://www.wikitree.com/g2g/438140/how-many-descendants-does-a-pre-1700-ancestor-have-67-108-864). Re-population is never a problem, running out of planet capable of supporting them is. The current pandemic is just a temporary distraction.

[Bushmiller]

Me too!

Evan

I hope you are just bulletproof and are not referring to abuse by a movie mogul!

Regards
Paul

[BobL]

The pharma grade glycerol finally came today and I mixed up some IPA based hand sanitzer using the WHO IPA recipe. Hand feel seems good although it's quite a bit thinner than the usual hand gel stuff but it works very well in a spray bottle. Now we can have a bottle in the car, one by the front door, one in the kitchen, one in SWMBO's hand bag and a couple of spares.

[FenceFurniture]

Today's spreadsheet attached.

Points to note:

Australian 3 day Cases increase was very small at 6.2%
Australian 3 day death increase was once again 50%, but that is a bit skewed because of the low number.
Australia is slightly trending down the Total Cases column, and IPM column
Australia continues to remain very near the bottom of Deaths and Death Rate.
Of the 2000+ death countries, Germany, UK, USA, Belgium had significant 3 day increases in Deaths of >40%, and France not far behind.
USA 3 day new cases rate continues to fall (72%, 43%, 27%) so maybe they have peaked out somewhat.
Same for Spain, Italy, France, but with better (lower) percentages than the USA


I have added a couple of things:

When you sort a column the top cell will go green to indicate which sort it was.
4 columns K-N show the four overall positions for a country in each of the fields cases, death, death rate, IPM. This was really more about tracking Australia's position through the history of this spreadsheet.

[Bushmiller]

Norman Swan's "Health Report" contains a discussion on face masks. It might be of interest to some of you. There are several topics broached in this segment, but the face mask discussion starts around the 8min mark if you wish to go straight there.

Coronavirus: face masks, sheep dip, clinical guidelines and CT scans - Health Report - ABC Radio National (https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/healthreport/coronavirus-masks-ivermectin-clinical-guidelines/12124520)

In another broadcast (I think it was Norman Swan again) I heard that when Covid-19 decides to really latch onto a victim ( it is to my mind a latching process as the virus cannot live very long by itself and has to adhere to cells, which become the host) it develops into a second and much more severe phase. The talk, on Radio National, was sparked by the downturn in Boris Johnson's health. Looks like they were right to hospitalise him and the illness has gone far beyond the precautionary stage.

Regards
Paul

[FenceFurniture]

USA 3 day new cases rate continues to fall (72%, 43%, 27%) so maybe they have peaked out somewhat.

Except that the USA has added 10,500 cases and 600 deaths in the last 3 hours....

[FenceFurniture]

I don't want this to sound harsh or callous because the current British PM is just another human being (although over-privileged and under-smart)
BUT
him getting a bad case of C19 may make the rest of the UK, and indeed the rest of the world, take the situation somewhat more seriously than has been the case.

[Bushmiller]

[/LIST]
Except that the USA has added 10,500 cases and 600 deaths in the last 3 hours....

Brett

Those figures are worrying enough in themselves. An escalating situation with a country whose attitude reflects various amendments and the fact it is a "free" country and they can't be told what to do exacerbates this considerably. I have heard this from an American and somebody who has just returned from the US (New York) and is back at our workplace after two weeks of enforced isolation.

However the more worrying factor is they have Dr. Donald Trump advising the populace how to self medicate, now that it is going to go on beyond Easter ( it would have been so nice if it was all done and dusted by Easter in time for the Bunny to visit) as it didn't go away by itself as he originally, and very confidently I might add, predicted it would.

Sorry. What's that you say? King Donald is not a doctor! Well. Who would have believed that!

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

Comeuppance - a word an American I knew used excessively 20 years ago.... seems so apt now.

[FenceFurniture]

However the more worrying factor is they have Dr. Donald Duck advising the populace how to self medicateLet him screw his own country - they voted him in (albeit with a slim minority in the pop. vote). The more worrying thing for me is for people like Bob who may find it hard to get the meds they need because duckheads around the world listen to Dr. Duck. Furthermore Dr Duck has just procured 29mill doses from India, so that will surely create a world shortage, at least for a while. That comes on top of other meds that could be in short supply because of the supply chain and transportation problems from China and India.

[GraemeCook]

....
However the more worrying factor is they have Dr. Donald Trump advising the populace how to self medicate, .....


What's the worry?

I am sure Dr Trump consulted with Dr Google.

[woodPixel]

Furthermore Dr Duck has just procured 29mill doses from India, so that will surely create a world shortage, at least for a while. That comes on top of other meds that could be in short supply because of the supply chain and transportation problems from China and India.

Hmmm. I've seen a few reports on medrxiv that Hydro doesn't actually work for this beastie.

BobL may be in luck - The yanks will find capitalism prices their excess inventory harshly. That useless excess will flood the market at VERY reasonable prices (for the buyers thereof anyway!)

I'm more than a little surprised that any country is actually engaging with the USA. As they become more desperate, so will their acts of piracy, sabotage, acrimony and ... war.

On Saturday I asked my chemist for 3 packs of potassium iodide. Just In Case. He looked right at me for quite a time.....

[GraemeCook]

Hmmm. I've seen a few reports on medrxiv that Hydro doesn't actually work for this beastie........

.....


Me, too.

There was an interview on the ABC (or SBS?) about two weeks ago with an Australian surgeon working in a hospital deep inside the Red Zone in Lombardi (city named Bergarno, or similar?).

He described how they got a few strange cases, then were inundated, then were overwhelmed.... Medical staff were overworked, dangerously, facilities were exhausted, etc. All non-emmergency surgery was cancelled and surgeons were/are required to work as internal medicine physicians. They had to "play God" in deciding who got a ventillator, and who didn't, who went in and who was excluded from intensive care, even who was excluded from hospital.

They basically had no treatment available for many dying patients so got to the "try anything" stage, including the anti-malarial and the rhumatoid drugs. My memory is that he said there were some indications that there were benefits from the rhumatoid drugs in certain circumstances, but zero evidence of any benefits from the anti-malarials.

[Greg Ward]

Calm everybody, some empty rhetoric is once again starting to flow
Know you are all stressed but nasty comments about other nationalities is possibly really not appropriate at this time

[Bushmiller]

One of the most profound quotes ever:

" Any man's death diminishes me because I am involved with mankind: Therefore never send to know for whom the bells tolls, it tolls for thee." (John Donne. 1572 - 1631) Reference to the bells signifying funerals.

I have quoted it many times, but never before has it been so pertinent as it is in these times.

Hemingway plagiarised it a little in his novel "For Whom the Bell Tolls" about the Spanish civil war and it is that extract that is most familiar to us.

Regards
Paul

[q9]

I don't know if you've seen this, but worth a watch:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejlbCmRJMW4

[FenceFurniture]

The pharma grade glycerol finally came today and I mixed up some IPA based hand sanitzer using the WHO IPA recipe. Hand feel seems good although it's quite a bit thinner than the usual hand gel stuff but it works very well in a spray bottle. Now we can have a bottle in the car, one by the front door, one in the kitchen, one in SWMBO's hand bag and a couple of spares.Good for you Bob. Having it in abundance and in plenty of places increases peace of mind, if nothing else.

Something I've heard second hand from an aged care nurse is that when using gel it should only be 3 times per day because greeblies can be trapped between the layers of gel. I question "3" layers: why wouldn't 2 do it? In any case I would think that a good lather up would take things back to bare skin, and the process could start over again.

[Glider]

Something I've heard second hand from an aged care nurse is that when using gel it should only be 3 times per day because greeblies can be trapped between the layers of gel. It sounds plausible, but I question "3" layers: why wouldn't 2 do it? In any case I would think that a good lather up would take things back to bare skin, and the process could start over again.

Hand gel will only denature the bugs on your hands. It offers no protection against any you might pick up after it dries. Each application will do the same job and it's highly doubtful that the gel itself would create a barrier or safe haven for any flora.

mick

- - - Updated - - -

[FenceFurniture]

Thanks Mick. It does sound self-defeating, because if the gel is going to trap bugs between layers then self-evidently it is not killing them, and therefore useless anyway.


Have removed "It sounds plausible, but" from my post so that anyone who reads it doesn't get a wrong impression.

[Glider]

Good thinking, 99!

[BobL]

Hand gel will only denature the bugs on your hands. It offers no protection against any you might pick up after it dries. Each application will do the same job and it's highly doubtful that the gel itself would create a barrier or safe haven for any flora.

mick

From what I seen/experienced not all hand gels are the same. Some are thin/runny that evaporates quickly while others do leave a slightly sticky residue that hangs around for many minutes even hours but I suspect most of this will be the moisturising components. I actually don't like this feeling so I end up washing my hands as soon as possible afterwards. If anything I then wonder if the moisturiser being sticky subsequently picks up and carries around more virus?

[Glider]

From what I seen/experienced not all hand gels are the same. Some are thin/runny that evaporates quickly while others do leave a slightly sticky residue that hangs around for many minutes even hours but I suspect most of this will be the moisturising components. I actually don't like this feeling so I end up washing my hands as soon as possible afterwards. If anything I then wonder if the moisturiser being sticky subsequently picks up and carries around more virus?

I may have said this in an earlier post but can't remember. Adding Glycerine (glycerol) to hand gel inhibits evaporation of the alcohol and to some extent dilutes it. Glycerine is a humectant and is used in toiletries to moisturise skin. To my mind it seems a bit pointless adding it because alcohols will dissolve some of the lipids from the skin and moisture won't replace them. It's possible that some formulators will add fatty esters and some of the longer chain ones will feel sticky. Some gels might also retain some of the liquid medium with the same outcome. I've told my family to make a solution of 75% metho, 25% water and thicken to the desired viscosity with Aloe Vera gel which they've harvested from the garden. They've all provided positive feedback.

mick :)

p.s. I used to formulate this sort of thing.

[FenceFurniture]

This is worth a read:
How did this coronavirus start? It probably came from bats, but how and why? - Science - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-04-09/how-did-this-coronavirus-start/12132312)

[BobL]

I may have said this in an earlier post but can't remember. Adding Glycerine (glycerol) to hand gel inhibits evaporation of the alcohol and to some extent dilutes it. Glycerine is a humectant and is used in toiletries to moisturise skin. To my mind it seems a bit pointless adding it because alcohols will dissolve some of the lipids from the skin and moisture won't replace them.

I agree about glycerine reducing alcohol evaporation during application but I doubt its doing much dilution since the amount in the WHO recipe is only added at 14g/L. My understanding is that rather than attempting to replace lost lipids, glycerine is also added to generate a barrier to reduce the amount of further moisture loss from the skin after application? Isn't that really how skin moisturizers work?

[Glider]

I agree about glycerine reducing alcohol evaporation during application but I doubt its doing much dilution since the amount in the WHO recipe is only added at 14g/L. My understanding is that rather than attempting to replace lost lipids, glycerine is also added to generate a barrier to reduce the amount of further moisture loss from the skin after application? Isn't that really how skin moisturizers work?

I'm not familiar with the WHO formula. Given that>95% of the formula will evaporate, 1.4% should be enough to moisturise the skin but not really as a primary barrier. Glycerine is hygroscopic hence it's classed as a humectant. For those unfamiliar with the term, it attracts water to itself.

Skin moisturisers are supposed to work in two ways, depending on the formula. Bear in mind that they are not subject to clinical or even efficacy trials, only animal testing in the old days. Currently I believe they use only ingredients tested for hypersensitivity. Most are oil in water emulsions of lipophilic ingredients like lanolin, mineral oil, fatty waxes etc. in a continuous water based phase which contains glycerine or sorbitol. The insoluble fatty phase does the waterproofing and the humectants attract and retain water. Scientifically, it doesn't make sense, but that's what the market accepts.

When I worked in cosmetics and toiletries, it was always said "We're in the business of selling dreams".

mick

[FenceFurniture]

I'm not familiar with the WHO formula.The meths brew, by volume, is
83.5% Ethanol at 95-96% purity
1.5% Glycerol at 98% purity
2% H2O2 at 6% strength
13% H20 at 100% strength. If the water is diluted then vary accordingly. Water should be boiled and cooled (although I can't see what the cooling will do - at 13%, it'll hardly heat things up much)

So they are aiming for 80% purity of alcohol (83.5% of 96% is 80%).

For using IPA there is a change to the alcohol/water content but I can't remember it off the top of my head.

[NeilS]

I may have said this in an earlier post but can't remember. Adding Glycerine (glycerol) to hand gel inhibits evaporation of the alcohol and to some extent dilutes it. Glycerine is a humectant and is used in toiletries to moisturise skin. To my mind it seems a bit pointless adding it because alcohols will dissolve some of the lipids from the skin and moisture won't replace them. It's possible that some formulators will add fatty esters and some of the longer chain ones will feel sticky. Some gels might also retain some of the liquid medium with the same outcome. I've told my family to make a solution of 75% metho, 25% water and thicken to the desired viscosity with Aloe Vera gel which they've harvested from the garden. They've all provided positive feedback.

mick :)

p.s. I used to formulate this sort of thing.

I made up both a WHO Ethanol formula with Glycerol and WHO Isopropyl formula with Aloe Vera. I have read that the amount of water added to both formulae is critical to achieve the concentrations and effectiveness of the alcohol (eg 75%-85% v/v for Ethanol). Ethanol requires a slightly higher proportion of alcohol to water. Efficacy drops dramatically below 60% alcohol concentrations.

Both mixes are thin and runny. The time required to achieve max efficacy is 10 to 15 seconds. That will be achieved with the WHO formulae. A thicker mix that takes longer to evaporate achieves no extra benefit and mixes that are too thick could be counterproductive.

Some research has shown that Ethanol is slightly more effective with viruses and Isopropyl more effective with bacteria. Washing your hands for long enough with soap is more effective than both, but not always possible, thus the role of the rubs. The rubbing is an important aspect of the protocol.

Covid-19 (Sars-CoV-2) appears to be very contagious, but fortunately it is vulnerable to soap and alcohol rubs in the right formulation. Detergents are also effective on surfaces. These rapidly dissolve the lipid membranes that hold the virus package together. The components of the virus fall apart and then can't pass on the instructions to replicate more virus.

Trivia: According to the microbiologist in my family, we don't kill the virus as they are not by strict definition alive (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/are-viruses-alive-2004/). They are more like a computer program that can do nothing until inserted into and activated by a computer. Viruses are hijackers. They need living cells to allow the virus code to be activated, to replicate and be lifelike.

[NeilS]

For using IPA there is a change to the alcohol/water content but I can't remember it off the top of my head.



WHO Isopropyl Formula

• Isopropyl alcohol (99.8% concentration) 75% (v/v),
• Glycerol (98% concentration) 1.45% (v/v),
• Hydrogen peroxide (3% concentration) 0.125% (v/v)
• H2O to make up to 100% (v/v)

Cooling the water may reduce the evaporation of the alcohol until bottled.

[FenceFurniture]

This is a befuddling story.....in the middle of what may be the worst unemployment since the depression.

I know of this second-hand, but at very close range, and it has happened over the last week.

A person has a full-time tenured position, at ~$150,000pa, and has been in the job for around 18 months. They have a PhD, but it is not strictly in the field of the job title. In other words, this is no dummy. They are surrounded by similarly qualified, highly educated people. They have been recently unhappy about being undermined, both from above and below, with the underling apparently engaging in shouting during a Zoom meeting last Friday. The meeting was called by the person in question so as to resolve the difficulty with the underling if at all possible.

Not so long ago, this person had saved the underling's skin from some other kerfuffle where they had behaved badly towards another staff member.

The person had already decided to go on 5 weeks annual leave starting from this week, and was going to consider their position in that time, which they were regarding as untenable. They were basically thinking of resigning. I had discussed this with the "second-hand" person who related the story to me, and my view of it was that to resign was lunacy in the current environment, and virtually at the end of a career (63 years old).

As it turns out, the five week leave was not used for consideration, and they submitted their resignation yesterday. :doh:

There are times when you need to stand up for yourself, and have the courage of your convictions. There are other times - extraordinary times - when it might be smarter to lay low for a while, and maybe even ride out the storm. As I said last night, the person will feel very foolish indeed if the underling is independently brought to heel if or when they are discovered to be "unsuitable" for their own job (which would seem to be the case).

Good luck finding another job....of any kind....ever.

[rustynail]

Another early retiree in the making.

[FenceFurniture]

WHO Isopropyl Formula

• Isopropyl alcohol (99.8% concentration) 75% (v/v),
• Glycerol (98% concentration) 1.45% (v/v),
• Hydrogen peroxide (3% concentration) 0.125% (v/v)
• H2O to make up to 100% (v/v)

Cooling the water may reduce the evaporation of the alcohol until bottled.Sorry to quibble Neil, but formulae can be critical. According to the WHO Brew sheet that Bob posted a while back (reattached here), it should be 4% volume (actually 4.17% but...) of Hydrogen peroxide of 3% concentration (which is why I nominated 2% of 6% concentration, being much cheaper to purchase than 3%).

Peroxide and Glycerol quantities are the same for either alcohol type.


The two formulations are on the 3rd page of the PDF (nominated as page 2 of 9).

[FenceFurniture]

Another early retiree in the making.:no:

Made!

[FenceFurniture]

Breaking news from the NY Times:
Coronavirus Live Updates: Studies Show N.Y. Outbreak Originated in Europe - The New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/us/coronavirus-live-updates.html?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20200408&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=cta&regi_id=101178970&segment_id=24401&user_id=60edaf118bcb23f82dde95e0cd3c2129)

Do scroll down through that blog to scope some of the excellent photo-journalism from the NYT. USA PJ is the best there is.

[FenceFurniture]

Maybe someone can shed some light on this conundrum?

We established a while ago that the 20 seconds of hand washing is just the lathering part of the process - i.e. not including the time it takes to rinse off the lather. This is because it can take 20 seconds to denature/disrupt the lipids that protect the virus.

So what use is just wiping down hard surfaces? Surely the same metric should be applied, and all of the surface needs to have a lather on it for a full 20 seconds before a rinse wipe down? AFAIK, the lather needs to be agitated too, to completely disrupt the lipid coating - in other words each part of the surface needs to be rubbed with the lather for 20 seconds. That could take *some time*.

This is even more difficult to achieve when wiping down groceries (which I have not been doing). I have been more relying on the virus "dying" within 24 hours on cardboard, and 72 hours on plastic or steel.

[rustynail]

20 second hand washing is with soap and water (Happy birthday to Me twice and then rinse off). Evaporative sanitiser is wipe on and leave it. According to my friend who is a grub, I mean scrub nurse.

[Kuffy]

So what use is just wiping down hard surfaces? Surely the same metric should be applied, and all of the surface needs to have a lather on it for a full 20 seconds before a rinse wipe down?

Due to the rona virus, at work we now have to clean machinery controls at the end of each day on the machines that we were using. I generally run two or three of the saws during the day so I clean those. I spray one, walk over to the other spray that, and then a third if needed. Then I wipe down the first, second then third. I don't know what I am spraying, just some soapy stuff that the bosses missus put into a bottle for us.

[FenceFurniture]

Thanks Ken. So presumably when they say "wipe down surfaces" that means with alcoholic sanitiser - maybe I missed that bit.

[NeilS]

Sorry to quibble Neil, but formulae can be critical. According to the WHO Brew sheet that Bob posted a while back (reattached here), it should be 4% volume (actually 4.17% but...) of Hydrogen peroxide of 3% concentration (which is why I nominated 2% of 6% concentration, being much cheaper to purchase than 3%).

Peroxide and Glycerol quantities are the same for either alcohol type.


The two formulations are on the 3rd page of the PDF (nominated as page 2 of 9).

OK, Brett, let's get this right.

Here are the concentrations within the individual ingredients before mixing and the recommended amounts of each at those concentrations, other than the water. The added water will bring the total amount up to give required total volume.

471295

I should have also given those WHO mixing proportions in my reply, which would have been far more useful for anyone wanting to making up an Isopropyl batch.

Here are final concentrations of the active ingredients once all the ingredients, including the water, are added in the recommended proportions.

471294

As I understand it, % v/v (% volume in total volume) are measures of the concentrations of the active ingredient in a solution. So, a 3% concentration of H2O2 when added in the recommended proportions (eg. 41.7 ml in a 1.0 Litre batch) will give a 0.125% by volume of active H2O2 ingredient in the total (100%) volume of batch. Those % v/v are given so the concentrations can be tested before use in WHO field operations. Not so relevant for our context.

And, yes the proportion of diluted H2O2 ingredient at 3% concentration to be added to the batch to achieve that is about 4% of the batch mix or 41.7mil in 1Litre or 417mil in 10 litres, as recommended by WHO.

And here according to WHO is the role of the H2O2.

471296

Thanks for the quibble, Brett. I think we have that right now.

[FenceFurniture]

OK, Brett, let's get this right.

Thanks for the quibble, I think we have that right now.Goodo Neil. I see the (my) confusion with v/v, and I'm not even sure I looked at the "final concentrations" because I was just working off the mls/litre recommended amounts (which as you say are more useful).

[FenceFurniture]

This is a useful series of small graphs which easily compares "growth factors" around the world (Australia's is at the top of the article)
One coronavirus number will let us know if Australia’s outbreak is getting worse - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-10/coronavirus-data-australia-growth-factor-covid-19/12132478#global)

The growth factor (by that measure) is simply today's new cases divided by the average cases over the previous 5 days. Below 1.0 is good (decreasing) above 1.0 not so good, and consistently above 1.0 means that cases are growing exponentially.

Very interesting to note that the vast majority of the countries show had their worst day in mid-March, with March 13th being the most common with 12/25 countries (and in radically different parts of the world, but most commonly in Europe)

[Bushmiller]

I am mindful of Greg Ward's post (#1337), which cautioned us about attacking other nationalities and in principle I agree that it is not constructive. Indeed, our time may well be better spent solving our own issues.

However there are some things that to my mind cannot be ignored, particularly if they point towards a general trend or way of thinking. Yesterday I heard Donald Trump criticise the WHO for handling the Covid-19 situation badly and being biased towards China. As it happens I think the WHO might have done a better job at times and there appeared to be a political influence in the early days. They didn't declare an "emergency" or pandemic status soon enough, but there again we are all guilty of the benefit of hindsight. However, Trump's accusations towards this organisation, towards China and indeed his whole attitude made me see red. The full story is here on a BBC link:

Coronavirus: Trump attacks 'China-centric' WHO over global pandemic - BBC News (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52213439)

Now these comments are coming from the leader of a nation that had the opportunity to see what was happening in the rest of the world and benefit from their situation, but did nothing. These are comments from a nation that has now hijacked medical supplies destined for other countries (US hijacking mask shipments in rush for coronavirus protection | World news | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/global-battle-coronavirus-equipment-masks-tests)) in their desperate and undignified (OK there is nothing dignified about Covid-19) rush to make up for lost time and demonstrate their rich kid tactics.

But mostly it is the public comments perpetuated by Trump in the preceding months that stick in the throat. Have a look at this for the timeline and to my mind disgraceful sequence of comments culminting in the attack on the WHO (not in the calendar but reported in the link above):

Trump'''s Coronavirus Calendar (https://therecount.com/watch/trump-coronavirus-calendar/2645515793)

If our Australian politicians make a single slip up five years ago our media is right onto them. How is it that Trump can get away with such blatantly incorrect comments and then do such about turns and nobody is pulling him up on these inconsistencies? Sure we all make mistakes and, reputably, it is the measure of a man that can admit to these. However, in the first place Trump does not admit to them, but proceeds as if they were never said. Secondly, if the populace goes along with what he says, and I am led to believe that his popularity has not waned during this time, he is at least partially responsible for the dire straits in which the Americans find themselves: Namely, the worst affected nation in the world.

How can he have misled his nationed so disastrously?

Regards
Paul

[NeilS]

We established a while ago that the 20 seconds of hand washing is just the lathering part of the process - i.e. not including the time it takes to rinse off the lather. This is because it can take 20 seconds to denature/disrupt the lipids that protect the virus.



Not quite. I understand that it takes 20 seconds to remove (break up) the grot on our hands and to get through that right down to our skin surface. We all have a fatty layer on our hands even when they look clean, otherwise we wouldn't leave fingerprints.

Put more succinctly by Norman Swan, ".... handwashing with soap is probably best, because it removes the fat layer on your skin which holds the virus. But hand sanitiser is a very good runner-up."


So what use is just wiping down hard surfaces? Surely the same metric should be applied, and all of the surface needs to have a lather on it for a full 20 seconds before a rinse wipe down? AFAIK, the lather needs to be agitated too, to completely disrupt the lipid coating - in other words each part of the surface needs to be rubbed with the lather for 20 seconds. That could take *some time*.

Door handles and the like may need a bit more attention because we are more frequently transferring some of the fatty layers from our hands onto those, but again according to Norman Swan, other hard surfaces that are cleaned relatively frequently, like bench tops, can just be cleaned with a regular detergent in a regular fashion. No need to be so OCD with that!


This is even more difficult to achieve when wiping down groceries (which I have not been doing). I have been more relying on the virus "dying" within 24 hours on cardboard, and 72 hours on plastic or steel.

We are using the same protocol of putting whatever we can into quarantine for the recommended periods and only giving the fridge/freezer items immediate attention. A quick detergent wipe over and dry for those. Fresh produce is either cleaned immediately or before use as we would normally do.

This week we had our first supermarket home delivery. That is going to be good, but introduced plastic bags (which we haven't had for well over a decade) so that has introduced another component. At this stage they have just been put as they are into quarantine before being returned at the time of the next delivery, which will be after the quarantine period has expired.

We have a similar protocol for pharmacy items.

Also had our first tele-consult with our doctor last week. That went well for the purpose of renewing scripts, although filling some of those has been a bit tricky. My asthma preventative med has become rarer than toilet paper. Suddenly all those people who have been prescribed asthma preventative medication but not bothered to keep that up until now have become zealous!

Only face to face contact this week was to get our (early) annual flu shot, the seniors one, which is a stronger brew to compensate for the weaker immune response in oldies. It's free, but we may have to get a boost later in the season depending on whether the flu makes a come back after a very slow start this year, presumably due to our collective preventive measures for Covid-19. The Doc who gave us the jabs was fully kitted out in PPE to remind us that it is on out there.

[FenceFurniture]

How is it that Trump can get away with such blatantly incorrect comments and then do such about turns and nobody is pulling him up on these inconsistencies?

How can he have misled his nation so disastrously?I don't know that he does get away with them Paul, and that will be determined and revealed in November. It is exactly why he has such an apPauling relationship with the press. You have only to watch the Q&A part of his daily press conference to witness that. If someone questions his actions he attacks them, continuing to mutter under his breath when the next person starts their question. When someone else takes up the same line of questioning he really goes for them, cuts them off and then selects a "friendly" questioner from the far right press such as One America. When the social distancing first started in the James Brady Briefing Room, I even saw him say that he would prefer it if 80-90% of the journalists that remained were removed, and "that would just leave 2 or 3 that I like". I did not get the impression that he was joking.

The number of times I've seen him belittle and harangue a reporter is ridiculous. "Why don't you ask a nice question instead of a nasty, snarky question?"
I suspect that many of the reporters enjoy asking him the questions that they should be asking, knowing that he will blowtorch them.

You can catch the daily briefing in the Guardian blog at about 7.30-8 am AEST, but even easier on C-SPAN (https://www.c-span.org/) where you have the choice of watching it live or "from the beginning" which means you can skip through the boring stuff and cut to the Q&A. Look for the panel "White House Coronavirus Task Force Briefing"


As I've stated before, he is not just misleading the USA, but the rest of the world. Pharmacists here in Oz had to be directed not to dispense HydroxyChloroquine a few weeks ago when he first started touting it. Fauci is in a very difficult position, where he knows he has to correct Dr Duck more or less every day, but can't go too hard because he (Fauci) knows his work is too valuable for him to be sacked in a fit of pique.

Trump surrounds himself with largely incompetent enablers, yes people, and ego feeders and soothers, and there are very few adults left in the room. He is only in it for himself and his own glory.

[FenceFurniture]

No need to be so OCD with that!No, I haven't been! :D Too much bloody work.
It was just a thought bubble that came to me yesterday, which I figured deserved an answer. (primarily because, as with the WHO Brew formula, it's really important that we get these things right, clear, and without any obfuscation - it can risk being pedantic, but better that than ambiguous or wrong)

[doug3030]

The number of times I've seen him belittle and harangue a reporter is ridiculous. "Why don't you ask a nice question instead of a nasty, snarky question?"
I suspect that many of the reporters enjoy asking him the questions that they should be asking, knowing that he will blowtorch them.

Almost sounds like the woodwork forum for the past couple of months. :oo: :rolleyes:

[bueller]

Almost sounds like the woodwork forum for the past couple of months. :oo: :rolleyes:This thread alone and a lot of the comments within has made me want to come back here a lot less lately. I come here for woodworking discussion, this ain't it.

[Chesand]

Has anyone done a graph on the number of posts here each day and whether the curve is flattening out. That would be useful. :D:D

[doug3030]

Has anyone done a graph on the number of posts here each day and whether the curve is flattening out. That would be useful. :D:D

Yes, it appears that by "socially isolating" people who are "infected" with opinions that may differ slightly from their own, some have definitely succeeded in flattening the post count curve. :D

[rwbuild]

deleted after reviewing

[woodhutt]

. How is it that Trump can get away with such blatantly incorrect comments and then do such about turns and nobody is pulling him up on these inconsistencies?
Regards
Paul

I think if you take a look at CNN and a few other reputable news organisations in the US you'll see that he is being held to account for his, let's be generous and call them 'misleading', statements. It is only Trumpcentric organisations such as Fox News which are acting as apologists for his pronouncements and continuing to disseminate the lies. It's also a truism that Americans tend to rally around the flag during times of crisis and this can show up as support for the governing regime. It doesn't always translate into success at the polls come election time. I believe and hope that, come this year's Presidential election, the American voters (the majority of who are intelligent, sensible people) will ensure that Trump's pigeons come home to roost.
Pete

[FenceFurniture]

It's also a truism that Americans tend to rally around the flag during times of crisis and this can show up as support for the governing regime. It doesn't always translate into success at the polls come election time.


Trump Keeps Talking. Some Republicans Don’t Like What They’re Hearing. - The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-press-briefing.html)
“He can’t escape his instincts, his desire to put people down, like Mitt Romney, or to talk about his ratings,” said former Representative Carlos Curbelo, a Florida Republican. “That’s why he’s not getting the George W. Bush post-9/11 treatment. A leader in this sort of crisis should have a 75-to-80-percent approval rating.”

[NeilS]

Yes, it appears that by "socially isolating" people who are "infected" with opinions that may differ slightly from their own, some have definitely succeeded in flattening the post count curve. :D

All opinions are welcome, just be prepared for responses that don't share your opinions.

As long as we play the ball and not the person, and abide by the forum rules (https://www.woodworkforums.com/f90/woodwork-forums-terms-conditions-tou-198339), then it is fair play, IMO.

But, also keep in mind that many of our opinions come out of our values and any attack on those feels like an attack on us personally. We all need to be respectful of other forum members' values (which are rarely stated, but implied, correctly or not) even if we don't share those values. If we concentrate on ideas we avoid trampling on other's values. If done politely, dumping on an idea is not an attack on that person's values.

The places to challenge values is elsewhere, like in political movements, think tanks, religious outfits, ethics committees and in my, and possibly in your, family...:U

[NeilS]

deleted after reviewing

Sounds like a smart move.

But, I bet it felt good writing it even if you didn't post it!

[woodhutt]

I believe that George Dubbya failed to be re-elected as a result of his poor handling of the New Orleans floods following Hurricane Katrina. Until then, he had enjoyed reasonable approval ratings. Hopefully something similar will happen later this year to DT.
Pete

[FenceFurniture]

Katrina was in 2005, which the first year of his second, and last allowed, term.

[GraemeCook]

I believe that George Dubbya failed to be re-elected as a result of his poor handling of the New Orleans floods following Hurricane Katrina. ....

Not quite true. Bush served the maximum allowable two terms of four years.

[NeilS]

This thread alone and a lot of the comments within has made me want to come back here a lot less lately. I come here for woodworking discussion, this ain't it.

Yes, well, this thread is in the NOTHING AT ALL TO DO WITH WOODWORK forum, Bueller.

No, need to visit it if it's only woodworking you're after.

And, what a good time to be woodworking.

[Bushmiller]

All opinions are welcome, just be prepared for responses that don't share your opinions.

As long as we play the ball and not the person, and abide by the forum rules (https://www.woodworkforums.com/f90/woodwork-forums-terms-conditions-tou-198339), then it is fair play, IMO.

But, also keep in mind that many of our opinions come out of our values and any attack on those feels like an attack on us personally. We all need to be respectful of other forum members' values (which are rarely stated, but implied, correctly or not) even if we don't share those values. If we concentrate on ideas we avoid trampling on other's values. If done politely, dumping on an idea is not an attack on that person's values.

The places to challenge values is elsewhere, like in political movements, think tanks, religious outfits, ethics committees and in my, and possibly in your, family...:U

Neil

Thanks for bringing us back on track. There is little I could add to your ethics, but there are a few points I would mention as a result of this thread. I should point out to begin with that I am not a creature of the modern social world in so far as I don't use a mobile phone and I do not participate on Facebook, Twitter or whatever other social forum there is available out there. I only participate on the Woodwork Forums, although I am a member of another two or three. I am reminded once a year that I belong to these when I receive an email reminder that say I have become one year older (thanks a bundle). Actually I don't mind at all. Every day you wake up is a bonus a colleague of mine at work used to say.

So to all intent and purpose this Forum is my internet social world and an extension of my woodworking interests. I raise and participate on this section on subjects that catch my attention. It is and I have to emphasise this, "Nothing to do with Woodwork." It is not compulsory to visit this section and nor is it compulsory to continue visiting. Anybody can "unsubscribe" so they don't continue to receive email notifications.

With regard to this particular debate I believe it has been allowed to continue, despite the political connotations at times and despite the testiness we have seen (actually I think this is understandable owing to the serious nature of the subject, although it would have been better if it had not occured) because it is a world wide issue. It is on the same level as a world war, but without the hand to hand combat. Strictly speaking is does not comply with the Forum regulations so my thanks to the moderators for allowing this despite everything.

I would like to tell you that I have never been guilty of transgressing the rules of the Forum, but that would not be true. I congratulate those who have stepped back and moderated their language as that is easier said than done. I can absolutely forgive that. I find it more difficult to forgive deliberate baiting and otherwise mischievous behaviour. A little banter is quite acceptable. I like the occasional digression (if that becomes illegal I would have to delete half my posts) and I like some humour to lighten the mood when everything starts to get a bit fractious.

Something that I particularly take from discussions in this section of the Forum and this thread especially is the wide range of background that the participants have and the skills they bring to the debate. I am wiser than I was because of your contributions, your web links, your viewpoints and your opinions.

Keep informing us all.

Regards
Paul

[FenceFurniture]

I am wiser than I was because of your contributions, your web links, your viewpoints and your opinions.Yes, I have been better informed, and therefore better prepared as a result of many of the posts in this thread. :2tsup:

[woodPixel]

How can he have misled his nationed so disastrously?

Demagogue - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demagogue)

Because, simply, he is a demagogue.

He is dangerously irrational, disastrously incompetent, a kiss-up kick-down manager and profoundly stupid.

He represents the collective total of the very worst traits of Americanism.

What a shameful, deeply shameful, episode that democracy has suffered.

[Greg Ward]

Don't know if any of you have seen the ABC comedy skit on corona virus armchair experts, their degree gained in 2 days from a study of Wikipedia, their knowledge broad and their competence unalloyed.
Worth a look

[FenceFurniture]

He is dangerously irrational, disastrously incompetent, a kiss-up kick-down manager and profoundly stupid.

He represents the collective total of the very worst traits of Americanism.But other than that he's a stable genius? :D

[woodPixel]

The places to challenge values is elsewhere, like in ... my, and possibly in your, family...:U

This is why Festivus was invented! Festivus - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Festivus)

Specifically, there is Airing_of_Grievances (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Festivus#Airing_of_Grievances) and Feats_of_Strength (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Festivus#Feats_of_Strength)

This lets the wind out of a lot of peoples sails :)

[woodhutt]

Not quite true. Bush served the maximum allowable two terms of four years.

Quite right Graeme. I should have said it was the Republicans who failed to get their nominee elected following Dubbya, probably as a result of his poor performance. I stand corrected. Pete

[FenceFurniture]

Quite right Graeme. I should have said it was the Republicans who failed to get their nominee elected following Dubbya, probably as a result of his poor performance. I stand corrected. PetePete, that was John McCain and I think he would have made a good president - like Romney he was a decent human being. I suspect it was his running mate that did a lot of damage to the campaign - Sarah Palin came across as an airhead. AND they were up against Obama & Biden who got 53% of the vote and 365/538 college votes (those figures were reduced slightly in 2012 against Romney).

One thing I remember about McCain was that at a rally, one of his supporters started slagging off Obama, and he said "I won't have that M'am, he's a good man."

[NeilS]

Don't know if any of you have seen the ABC comedy skit on corona virus armchair experts, their degree gained in 2 days from a study of Wikipedia, their knowledge broad and their competence unalloyed.
Worth a look

Here it is. Select the Thursday 9/4/2020 episode. It's near the end and starts at 29min.

7.30 : ABC iview (https://iview.abc.net.au/show/7-30/series/0/video/NC2001H056S00)!

And, yes, very funny!

[NeilS]

This 30sec clip presents the argument for distancing very succinctly, I thought.


YouTube (https://youtu.be/o4PnSYAqQHU)

[GraemeCook]

This 30sec clip presents the argument for distancing very succinctly, ....


Or "... Madam, if you can smell the phart then you are standing too damn close."

[riverbuilder]

The thing I’ve found with this forum, after becoming more active and interested in the past few months, is that there’s no compulsion to read anything, unlike social media platforms like Facebook, which decide for you what posts you see, which is one reason why I deleted it. If you don’t want to read a thread here, simply don’t, there’s plenty of others to read through, and almost 20 years of past threads and other information to look at. What I do like, is that when you ask a question for information, there’s a great range of scope of different experience coming back in the answers, sometimes the most obvious and sensible things come from people who are relatively new to the whole hobby(?) and the forum. I like the fact that newbies are welcomed in and treated with respect, after all, we all had to start somewhere, whether it was last week or, like me, when I was old enough to walk.
Everyone stay safe and enjoy the camaraderie we have here, it’s quite unique. Peter.

[Bushmiller]

Or "... Madam, if you can smell the phart then you are standing too damn close."

I note that Fence Furniture has requested pix for this post. Hopefully "Madam" is easy on the eye. As to the offending flatulence, I think it will be difficult in pix to capture the essence.

Regards
Paul

[FenceFurniture]

As to the offending flatulence, I think it will be difficult in pix to capture the essence.Not if you have a cigarette lighter handy.

[Bushmiller]

Not if you have a cigarette lighter handy.

Now that would be an emission worth a pic request.

Regards
Paul

[FenceFurniture]

Today's spreadsheet attached.

Points to note:


USA will go to the top of the deaths list some time today - 500 more will send them past Italy
Australia is at the bottom of the 3 day gain in cases :2tsup: ignoring China & S.Korea (been at it for much longer), and ignoring 7 new entrants with no previous data
Australia's death rate is approaching 1% (expected, takes a few weeks to die), but still almost at the bottom of the list
Australia has slipped down from 22 to 26 in total # cases
6 European countries all have death rates over 10% (Italy, UK, Belgium, Netherlands, France, Spain)
Europe has 68% of the world's deaths, USA 18%, leaving the rest of the world accounting for 14%
Europe has 48% of the world's cases, USA 29%, rest of the world 23%
American countries have very high 3 day gains in deaths (Canada, Ecuador, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, USA)
51 countries, accounting for 71% of world pop, have 2000+ cases

[NeilS]

There will not be much that is new in the following article for those who have been following this thread, but posted here as it puts pay to any assertion that any country wasn't forewarned about the need to prepare for a respiratory pandemic.

Jennifer Nuzzo: “We’re Definitely Not Overreacting” to COVID-19 (https://daily.jstor.org/jennifer-nuzzo-were-definitely-not-overreacting-to-covid-19/?utm_term=jennifer-nuzzo-were-definitely-not-overreacting-to-covid-19&utm_campaign=jstordaily_04092020&utm_content=email&utm_source=Act-On+Software&utm_medium=email)

Nuzzo was the lead author on the report released three months before the first reported Covid-19 case. At just 75 pages long (without the long reference list), it's not a difficult read and should have been understood and acted upon by any government that thought it applied to them.

Preparedness for a High-Impact Respiratory Pathogen Pandemic (http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/pubs_archive/pubs-pdfs/2019/190918-GMPBreport-respiratorypathogen.pdf)

Evidently the US has thought preparation for such pandemics is not such a priority for them, closing its 'global pandemic response' unit of the National Security Committee in May 2018 and disbandoning the companion unit in the Department of Homeland Security the moth before. Neither the NSC nor DHS epidemic teams have been replaced a such, but according to this fact check (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-trump-fired-pandemic-team/partly-false-claim-trump-fired-pandemic-response-team-in-2018-idUSKBN21C32M) some staff were reassigned.

The Global Health Security Index (https://www.ghsindex.org/) gave Australia a rating of 75.5 for preparedness in 2019, 4th out of 195 countries. But, some of the countries with even higher ratings have not done so well (so far). As Nuzzo explains,

"the overarching finding of our study was that no country is fully prepared. This has not been misinterpreted. But, if you just look at the scores, the United States comes out on top. Clearly, just given current experiences, there is no evidence that the United States is the most prepared. We are way behind other countries on a number of fronts. And even though the president held up our index at a press conference and said, “Look, you know, Johns Hopkins found that the U.S. is prepared,” that’s actually not what we found. What we found was that no country is fully prepared, and many countries have deficit in their health systems. That is very much playing out across the globe right now."

The warning about the availability of a vaccine when found and fully tested in the volumes required for broad community immunization is sobering.

"I think vaccines are not going to be a realistic solution for years. The 12-to-18 month timeline that you’ve likely heard assumes that the science works in our favor. But it will take years to get the quantities that we need. I don’t see vaccines being a viable solution for a long time."

[clear out]

Not if you have a cigarette lighter handy.

That reminds me of a mate whose bench was in line of sight of the foreman and would occasionally light one.
The look on the boss’s face brought nearly as big a laugh as the incendiary display.
H.

[FenceFurniture]

c1978 my father didn't believe me when I said they were flammable.:firedevil:

It was evening.
"Righto Dad, you operate the light switch, and I'll operate the lighter".

BOOM! Seriously....best one ever....spectacular display in a darkened room.
:ft:


Dad dissolved to the floor with laughter and surprise.

[woodPixel]

This little number chugging ever upward makes the whole "100k dead" thing seem all rather trivial....

World Population Clock: Daily Births - Worldometer (https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/)

We are a plague:

World Population Clock: growth (https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/#pastfuture)