CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[Tccp123]

Really.... That "quote" was widely used in the promotion of the Underbelly TV series. But attribution of that "quote" actually dates back at least to Mayor Richard Daley in Chicago in the 1950's, but its origin was almost certainly earlier.

Does it really matter where it came from? The point was the quote, not the origin. Anyway why was Mayor Richard Daley in Chicago in the 1950's commenting on the NSW police force in the 1980s?

[FenceFurniture]

From Shedhand, just now:

470844

[rwbuild]

Not funny Brett

[BobL]

This is an interesting read from the ABC.

Coronavirus data shows our isolation regime is a marathon, not a sprint - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-03/coronavirus-data-modelling-covid19-stay-home/12114978)

In summary it suggests we'll have be in this lay-low state for a lot longer than we think.

[Tccp123]

This is an interesting read from the ABC.

Coronavirus data shows our isolation regime is a marathon, not a sprint - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-03/coronavirus-data-modelling-covid19-stay-home/12114978)

In summary it suggests we'll have be in this lay-low state for a lot longer than we think.

It sounds to me like you've achieved what you've all been after. Well done. Congratulations.

[FenceFurniture]

It sounds to me like you've achieved what you've all been after. Well done. Congratulations.Perhaps you could explain what you would have done.

[woodPixel]

80% of people will get it. So far, 20% of those who get it, die. (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)


Think of five friends. One is dead.

Think of four friends. If they are fine, you're it.


Now for the contention - this affects boomers 9 times in 10. Those who are in the greatest denial are... boomers.

Jesus. Its as if you all couldn't give a f*ck.



edit - Tccp123, I'm finding it very hard to understand where you are coming from. You make no sense. I think you are in a deliberate denial/delusional/irrational state... some form of reality distortion, where what is occurring isn't real, or is in some way a massive international conspiracy. Wake up Neo - its time for the red pill.

[Tccp123]

80% of people will get it. So far, 20% of those who get it, die. (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)


Think of five friends. One is dead.

Think of four friends. If they are fine, you're it.


Now for the contention - this affects boomers 9 times in 10. Those who are in the greatest denial are... boomers.

Jesus. Its as if you all couldn't give a f*ck.



edit - Tccp123, I'm finding it very hard to understand where you are coming from. You make no sense. I think you are in a deliberate denial/delusional/irrational state... some form of reality distortion, where what is occurring isn't real, or is in some way a massive international conspiracy. Wake up Neo - its time for the red pill.


While most thinking people are transfixed with horror by the annihilation of our global economy, the left are rejoicing.

This week GetUp! emailed their supporters in raptures over the wartime measures our government has taken to see people through the pandemic.

“We Won – BIG” their subject line announced triumphantly.

Doubled Newstart allowances, 6 months rent-free, 6 million Aussies receiving wage subsidies from the government, FREE daycare...

For the socialists, this is life as it always should be.

Never mind that it’s come at the cost of a World War II sized deficit our children’s children will likely be paying off.

The climate alarmists are rejoicing also.

Planes are grounded, oil demand has plummeted, and industry is halted as great swathes of our economy are forbidden from functioning – all of which mean reduced Co2 emissions.

For this particular brand of lefty, even the pandemic’s death toll has an upside: less people mean a smaller carbon footprint.

[FenceFurniture]

Jesus. Its as if you all couldn't give a f*ck.Now now, that is just no way to get written into my will.


Went to the Food Co-op to buy eggs this arvo. I had my 30ml squirt bottle of WHO brew in my pocket, P2 mask on, orange nitrile super-glove on my left hand (need the right for fingerprint). The coins in my pocket have been sat in weak bleach and then boiled for ten minutes. Yep, I'm serious about this.

Person at the door said I can wash my hands at the sink before and after, and would I please take off the glove "we'll give you another glove on the way out".
Me: "that would be ok but your gloves are nowhere near as good as this one"
Them: "Doesn't matter"
Me: "ok, how about if I sterilise my hand and the glove with this WHO brew sanitiser?"
Them: "No, you have to take the glove off and wash your hands. We don't know where that glove has been."
Me: "ok, I'll wash the glove on my hand"
Them: "No, that's not enough"
Me: "ok, I'll wash the glove on my hand AND sanitise it"
Them: "No, that's not enough"
Me: "Why not? How is that any different to washing my skin which has cracks, pores, lines and fingernails for the virus to hide in?"
Them: Thunder faced, mouth still moving but no sound issuing.

Then I was accused of not taking it seriously (them was not masked, or gloved) and of putting myself above their safety. I responded that they wanted me to lower my safety standards to suit theirs.

So while I was diligently washing my hand and gloved hand - having to push plungers and tap lever that other people touch - another person decided to tackle me about it. They too ended up with a noiselessly moving mouth in the face of (quite simple) logic. Then I moved away and sanitised as well, got my eggs, and presented my boiled money to pay for them. Person taking the money said they were involved in public health previously, and agreed that I was indeed taking it very seriously.

None of the staff had masks or gloves on. I applaud them for the hand washing caper. And their eggs. The eggs are great! Bloody monsters lately - one was 78 grams!

Sometimes people have to follow rules just because them's the rules, even in the face of superior techniques. Tis a pity that not enough people can think well enough.

[Tccp123]

80% of people will get it. So far, 20% of those who get it, die. (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)


Think of five friends. One is dead.

Think of four friends. If they are fine, you're it.


Now for the contention - this affects boomers 9 times in 10. Those who are in the greatest denial are... boomers.

Jesus. Its as if you all couldn't give a f*ck.



edit - Tccp123, I'm finding it very hard to understand where you are coming from. You make no sense. I think you are in a deliberate denial/delusional/irrational state... some form of reality distortion, where what is occurring isn't real, or is in some way a massive international conspiracy. Wake up Neo - its time for the red pill.

"80% of people will get it. So far, 20% of those who get it, die. (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)"

Crap

"Think of five friends. One is dead."

Ok I've thought of five. None is dead, In fact none have got it. OK I've thought of 100. None are dead. In fact none have got it. I asked here did anyone know anyone who had it and the only answer was the uncle of my wife's brother's father in law's second cousin...I think.

Baby boomers are in denial? Horses**t! Most of you are baby boomers and you have been sucked into it hook line and sinker. Look at today's news, 100s of people flock to Manly Beach, not a baby boomer among them!

[Tccp123]

Now now, that is just no way to get written into my will.


Went to the Food Co-op to buy eggs this arvo. I had my 30ml squirt bottle of WHO brew in my pocket, P2 mask on, orange nitrile super-glove on my left hand (need the right for fingerprint). The coins in my pocket have been sat in weak bleach and then boiled for ten minutes. Yep, I'm serious about this.

Person at the door said I can wash my hands at the sink before and after, and would I please take off the glove "we'll give you another glove on the way out".
Me: "that would be ok but your gloves are nowhere near as good as this one"
Them: "Doesn't matter"
Me: "ok, how about if I sterilise my hand and the glove with this WHO brew sanitiser?"
Them: "No, you have to take the glove off and wash your hands. We don't know where that glove has been."
Me: "ok, I'll wash the glove on my hand"
Them: "No, that's not enough"
Me: "ok, I'll wash the glove on my hand AND sanitise it"
Them: "No, that's not enough"
Me: "Why not? How is that any different to washing my skin which has cracks, pores, lines and fingernails for the virus to hide in?"
Them: Thunder faced, mouth still moving but no sound issuing.

Then I was accused of not taking it seriously (them was not masked, or gloved) and of putting myself above their safety. I responded that they wanted me to lower my safety standards to suit theirs.

So while I was diligently washing my hand and gloved hand - having to push plungers and tap lever that other people touch - another person decided to tackle me about it. They too ended up with a noiselessly moving mouth in the face of (quite simple) logic. Then I moved away and sanitised as well, got my eggs, and presented my boiled money to pay for them. Person taking the money said they were involved in public health previously, and agreed that I was indeed taking it very seriously.

None of the staff had masks or gloves on. I applaud them for the hand washing caper. And their eggs. The eggs are great! Bloody monsters lately - one was 78 grams!

Sometimes people have to follow rules just because them's the rules, even in the face of superior techniques. Tis a pity that not enough people can think well enough.

My heart goes out to the poor people who work at these places who are faced with dealing with stupid people every single day. I don't know how they get out of bed in the morning.

[BobL]

80% of people will get it. So far, 20% of those who get it, die. (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)

I don't think those numbers are worth much.
Until we know the numbers of those who have been infected without even knowing about (which currently ranges from 20 to 1000% ) via some sort of antibody test the real death rate is unknown

The death rates will vary dramatically depending on a countries population profile and ability to flatten the curve. Countries with a younger age profile will have lower death rate than those with older profiles as being demonstrated by Italy and Spain.

[Tccp123]

Morrison: Hey Josh, better ring the mint and get them to start up the presses. We need more dosh. About $130b should do...for now.

[Chesand]

You guys have sure made up for the late start this morning. :D

[NeilS]

...and who gives them that expert qualification?



You can buy them at Bunnings. You just have to know where to find them.

If I remember correctly, Bob has a doctorate. Where did you buy yours from Bob or were you just given it?

Others participants in this thread may be similarly well qualified or have recognised expertise in their respective fields.

But, who needs qualifications and expertise.

I just love the Dunning and Kruger Effect (https://www.britannica.com/science/Dunning-Kruger-effect) when you see it in action. In the report on their research, titled Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments, (1999)

Quote: compared with their more competent peers, incompetent individuals…will dramatically overestimate their ability and performance relative to objective criteria; that they will be less able…to recognize competence when they see it (whether their own or someone else’s).

This is not a function of low intelligence, but more a failure in meta-cognition and perhaps to some extent motivational biases (temperament).

However, the most competent group in the study did the reverse, they underestimated their competence. I observe that over and over again in competent people. In my experience highly competent people don't claim to be experts, they become identified as experts in their domain when they are acknowledged a such by the others in their field.

My reference group for that observation are, at last count, the eight immediate members of my wife and my family with doctorates, countless post-docs, six professorships, four fellows of various royal colleges, plus a few close friends with personal academic chairs (not from Ikea), plus a smattering of Companions of Australia and the odd knighthood (they are particularly cheap, but a bit harder to come by nowadays). Some of these got given to them for Christmas or a special birthday, the remainder were purchased from various shops around the world. There a few good little ones with bargains in Cambridge, Oxford, Harvard and Tokyo. As for those honorary qualifications that they just give away, the less said the better. Likewise, keynote addresses at world conferences and the peer reviewed publications in the thousands.

[FenceFurniture]

You can buy them at Bunnings. You just have to know where to find them.Next to the Troll Food. Old mate should see them pretty soon, if he's game enough to venture out again.

[ian]

just some very rough numbers

there's something like 26 million people in Australia.
we're going to be under enhanced "self-isolation" for at least 90 days.
if each person ventures outside once every third day, that would require 26,000,000 x 30 = 800 Million (in round numbers) masks.

Where is the Government going to source that amount of PPE just for the great "now washing their hands" unwashed?

It may sound callus, but reserving PPE supplies for the medical professionals is IMO the only logical response.

[Kuffy]

I dunno where the government will source 800million masks, but they say they have secured 400million masks so far.

COVID-19 in Australia: we are not Italy, Iran or Spain | Australian Government Department of Health (https://www.health.gov.au/news/covid-19-in-australia-we-are-not-italy-iran-or-spain)


On top of this, we will soon start taking delivery of more than 400 million additional masks, as well as additional hand sanitiser, goggles, gloves and gowns. These new supplies build on the 3.1 million masks distributed to states and territories over the past week.

[Tccp123]

I dunno where the government will source 800million masks, but they say they have secured 400million masks so far.

COVID-19 in Australia: we are not Italy, Iran or Spain | Australian Government Department of Health (https://www.health.gov.au/news/covid-19-in-australia-we-are-not-italy-iran-or-spain)

I reckon they're buying them from China who cornered the market when all this started.

[Kuffy]

They probably are sourcing the gear from China. I reckon the government would be willing to source the vaccine or cure too from China for many 10's of billions of dollars if China was selling a proven vaccine. I have no problem with this.

[riverbuilder]

Someone sent me this, seems repurposing is alive and flourishing.

[doug3030]

I just love the Dunning and Kruger Effect (https://www.britannica.com/science/Dunning-Kruger-effect) when you see it in action. In the report on their research, titled Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments, (1999)

Quote: compared with their more competent peers, incompetent individuals…will dramatically overestimate their ability and performance relative to objective criteria; that they will be less able…to recognize competence when they see it (whether their own or someone else’s).

This is not a function of low intelligence, but more a failure in meta-cognition and perhaps to some extent motivational biases (temperament).



I just love the Dunning Kruger effect too.

It accounts for all those in this thread who are running around telling most of the others that they are wrong and citing their qualifications (even though the authoritiesare saying that the world is in uncharted waters and nobody has all the answers).


However, the most competent group in the study did the reverse, they underestimated their competence. I observe that over and over again in competent people. In my experience highly competent people don't claim to be experts, they become identified as experts in their domain when they are acknowledged a such by the others in their field.

Not much of that going on around here is there?

[BobL]

... reserving PPE supplies for the medical professionals is IMO the only logical response.

I agree, keep the surgical grade PPE for the med staff.

However, basic washable masks - even a bandana or a pair of undies will be better than nothing, one in the wash and one on the face when you go outside. If you get really desperate one on the face on one on the bum.

For people staying at home they should not need to wear a mask most days. They should only need to use it for the couple of times a week they need to go shopping or to the doctor - otherwise stay home. Exercise should be done well away from everyone else. I envisage the main users will be commuters.

I've had my couple of washable masks for a week - I take one with with me in the car in case of a breakdown and may have to interact with other people but otherwise I have not had to wear one at all.

SWMBO has worn her mask when we have taken the dog to the vet, and to the shops.

Again I reiterate - how does anyone not know they are not just mildly infected and just helping to spread it around?
It's not rocket science.

[BobL]

However, the most competent group in the study did the reverse, they underestimated their competence. I observe that over and over again in competent people. In my experience highly competent people don't claim to be experts, they become identified as experts in their domain when they are acknowledged a such by the others in their field. .

That's because successful research poses more questions than it answers. Put another way the more you know about something the more you realise how little you know about even that "something". My PhD students had to come up with at least half a dozen serious questions or recommendations for further research in their conclusions chapter. The best research always opens up far more doors than it closes.

[BobL]

The US is desperate,even some hospitals in the US are now accepting home made masks

Childrens hospital of Philadelphia.
Making Homemade Face Masks | Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (https://www.chop.edu/how-make-homemade-diy-face-mask)

CDC expected to reverse position on home made masks
Homemade face masks and coronavirus: New CDC guidelines expected and everything to know - CNET (https://www.cnet.com/how-to/homemade-face-masks-and-coronavirus-new-cdc-guidelines-expected-and-everything-to-know/)

Minnesota Dept of HEALTH
https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/hcp/masksalt.pdf

[woodPixel]

FenceFurniture, I'll gladly stay in your will if it involves a few tools or a stash of timber :) Can't promise to behave though... I'm not one of the "be nice to Rich Uncle" types. :q:q


Must say, I'm terribly interested in how places like Iran, India and Africa are doing. I hear so little about them - and they, i think, are REALLY going to cop it hard.

Poor bastards.


RiverBuilder may be onto something with that picture. A spacesuit reminds my of the movies Contagion and 12 Monkeys.

Perhaps, just perhaps, we can design an open source version using garbage bags, PU plastic sheeting and some of that bright orange concrete-slab underlay from Bunnings :)

[FenceFurniture]

It's not rocket science.It is for some.

[NeilS]

I'll bet you were a chalkie in a previous life :)

Yes, for part of it. For example, I had a substantial role over twenty years ago in pioneering and managing online education in Australia. All three levels of education, but mostly with the TAFE system. That has become a focus lately.

Did a bit of work internationally. Having been the nominated rappoteur for a UNESCO working group I agree with Bob that the politics and cultural issues are 90% of the effort.

As curriculum manager for a TAFE system I was engaged with the key representatives of a wide range of industries from aircraft maintenance mechanics to hairdressers, from panel beating to aged care.

I have also worked in telecommunication engineering, was a kiln designer and builder and earned my income from art and investing.

As a child I lived in a farming community, working on farms (yes, child labour) and immediate members of my family are still on farms. I also worked in factories on the night shift.

If by suggesting that I might have been a chalkie you are hinting that I have had a narrow experience and understanding of life outside a classroom, think again...:U

However, for the purposes of these forums I am a woodturner, which I have been doing on and off for over 50yrs and 'more on' for the last 20yrs.

[BobL]

RiverBuilder may be onto something with that picture. A spacesuit reminds my of the movies Contagion and 12 Monkeys.
Perhaps, just perhaps, we can design an open source version using garbage bags, PU plastic sheeting and some of that bright orange concrete-slab underlay from Bunnings :)

Too late this is already happening. The daughter of a friend of ours is on a DIY group making disposable hospital gowns working in conjunction with a hospital in Melbourne.

[BobL]

Don't be embarrassed though, everyone tries to play up their past.
i just wished I’d had more time to play up during my past.

[FenceFurniture]

FenceFurniture, I'll gladly stay in your will if it involves a few tools or a stash of timber :) Pfffft. That's all it involves. Well, currently there are three used, but excellent black cats (hmmm, not quite so excellent atm, one of them just barfed). And a very good vac pack machine.

[NeilS]

...and a pensioner now?

Wrong!

Having been a successful investor I'm self-funded.

Very unlikely to ever be eligible for the pension.

But, I don't like what you are IMPLYING.

I've been fortunate to be a net contributor to my country and now financially independent for whatever years I have left.

HOWEVER, not everyone is as fortunate. Through no fault of their own, others for whatever reason need our support to live above the poverty line and maintain their well being and self respect. I fully support that. As a society I believe we should be judged by how well our most in need are managing.

And, if I were a pensioner, I would be offended by your attempt to dismiss my views on that basis.

By all means challenge the ideas I express if you have issue with them.

But, please play the ball and not the person!

[artful bodger]

470888

[doug3030]

470888

So that's what BobL looks like with his mask off. :oo:

[DavidG]

One of the basic rules of a debate is to stick to the topic and do NOT attack the sender.

Someone has had their posts removed and if they continue baiting, will get a holiday....

DavidG Moderator...

[ian]

HOWEVER, not everyone is as fortunate. Through no fault of their own, others for whatever reason need our support to live above the poverty line and maintain their well being and self respect. I fully support that. As a society I believe we should be judged by how well our most in need are managing.

And, if I were a pensioner, I would be offended by your attempt to dismiss my views on that basis.
ah
the big statistical "elephant"

In most (all ?) western countries, poverty is defined in reference to a person's ability to purchase a basket of goods. If you have the income to purchase said basket of goods you are above the "poverty line", if not you are living below said line.
Over time the goods in the basket evolve.
I'm not entirely sure where the poverty line is currently defined in Australia, but with nearly everyone "working from home", we as a community can't be too far off that "basket of goods" including a mobile device for every household member and internet connectivity of a sufficient standard to allow for "working and schooling from home".

For a long time I've been critical that the NBN was more about delivering Netflix to every household than any other single factor. And I would question why the government was persisting down that path.
The current situation is leading me to reevaluate that opinion.
With nearly everyone now "working and schooling from home" the internet has become a basic service that needs to be both reliable and continually on, and part of the poverty line's "basket of goods".

The original NBN promise that 92% of households would get a 100 MB per second connection now appears totally inadequate. Let alone the adequacy of the 10-25 MB connections many now have. Back when I was still working, I estimated that the data I was then regularly using required a connection speed in the range of 1-2 GBit (each LAN had a "Steve's" drive connected to it servicing the building). The decay in connection speed, and the corresponding increased network congestion was particularly noticeable when "Steve's" drive went down in one building and you had to source the required data from another location via the WAN.


The Covid-19 virus is likely causing many to reclassify the internet into a basic good

[FenceFurniture]

The Covid-19 virus is likely causing many to reclassify the internet into a basic goodI'd call it an essential good (if that makes a difference).

Way back in the early days of this I was bemoaning the FizzaNet that we have been given. My platform has always been that we should have put in the absolute top whack available, even at cost of an additional $20B or more, because it needed to be able to cope with all the stuff we haven't thought of yet. An entire country working from home would be one of things. The need for Doctors to do whatever they might be able to do remotely would be another. A zoom meeting of 7 people must use up a lot of bandwidth in total.

Not hard to see that much more significant money than $20B may have to be spent on bringing the FizzaNet up to the speed of (say) New Zealand, in the not too distant future.

[Bushmiller]

HOWEVER, not everyone is as fortunate. Through no fault of their own, others for whatever reason need our support to live above the poverty line and maintain their well being and self respect. I fully support that. As a society I believe we should be judged by how well our most in need are managing.



Neil

Whilst not strictly on topic ( I do appreciate how we have arrived at this point) that is such a profound statement. It is not how many billionaires we have, but to reiterate:

" As a society I believe we should be judged by how well our most in need are managing. "

Regards
Paul

[BobL]

Well here it is folks (note the way CDC use the term cloth face covering - and not masks)
[CDC] Recommendation Regarding the Use of Cloth Face Coverings, Especially in Areas of Significant Community-Based Transmission

CDC recommends wearing cloth face coverings in public settings where other social distancing measures are difficult to maintain (e.g., grocery stores and pharmacies) especially in areas of significant community-based transmission.
Recommendation Regarding the Use of Cloth Face Coverings | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover.html)

But DT says he won't be wearing one !
Trump announces new face mask recommendations after heated internal debate - CNNPolitics (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/03/politics/trump-white-house-face-masks/index.html)

Also
CDC Now Recommends Americans Consider Wearing Cloth Face Coverings In Public : Coronavirus Live Updates : NPR (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/03/826219824/president-trump-says-cdc-now-recommends-americans-wear-cloth-masks-in-public)

[BobL]

This might apply.
470897

[FenceFurniture]

This might apply."Might"?

[doug3030]

Not hard to see that much more significant money than $20B may have to be spent on bringing the FizzaNet up to the speed of (say) New Zealand, in the not too distant future.

Why?

NBN should NEVER have been rolled out in metropolitan areas the way it was. It was a waste of money. All the major players knew that wireless internet on Mobile Networks would be superior to NBN in metropolitan areas before the NBN rollout was complete. Cable areas should have never been touched as it has degraded the service. ADSL services within 4km "wire distance" of an exchange should not have been touched either. Fibre to the premises is an extravagant expense when you are only aiming to supply a speed of 100 anyway. Fibre to the node would have sufficed until it may have become necessary to upgrade to 1000 or whatever.

Telstra played the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd government for fools by selling them their copper network and pits to install the NBN network in. That infrastructure was effectively worthless and left to decay before the government compensated them far more than what it was worth. They paid billions for worthless infrastructure and spent billions on "upgrading" it to something that is pretty much already out of date.

All that should have been done under NBN was to upgrade the metropolitan areas with sub-standard or no ADSL and then concentrate on the country areas. Replacing Cable and ADSL2 areas with NBN was a total waste.

The money that will be spent on improving Internet will be on wireless, and areas where 5G and its successors does not operate.

[Beardy]

Certainly not an area of my expertise but it has never made sense to be hardwiring with the ever improving wireless technology available

[Tccp123]

This article from today's Australian sums up my position perfectly:

I thought of my father, terminally ill with pulmonary fibrosis, when I heard of another victim of coronavirus this week.
He’s confined to his house, alone since my mother died four years ago. He relies on family and friends to shop for him; they wave through the window and leave him food on the doorstep.
I spoke to him as news came in of a 90-odd-year-old woman dying in a nursing home. He’s sick of the isolation and doesn’t want the time left to him to be spent in solitary confinement. His first great-grandchild was born six months ago and he fears he will never see the boy again.
“Look, son, I’m 88 in August,” he said, cheerfully. “I’ve had a good run. Whatever happens to me from now on, it’s not a f..king national tragedy.”
My father’s attitude is, he believes, not uncommon among his contemporaries, who understand the tough reality of old age. As he put it, with his winning sarcasm, “These people in nursing homes aren’t exactly snatched away in the prime of their lives, are they? Half of them don’t know they’re there, don’t even recognise their children when they visit.”
It’s brutal, but I’m sure he’s right. If you’re in an aged-care facility you’re not waiting to be discharged and sent home in a few weeks. You’re on your way out, and the exit’s probably not that far away. Coronavirus is speeding up the process, and it must feel overwhelming to the medical staff on the frontline. Which is precisely why they shouldn’t be making the decisions.
The health of a nation is not the sum of the health of its citizens. We require doctors and nurses to focus on their patients, but politicians need to take a broader view of the myriad components of a functioning, worthwhile society.
Sarcasm aside, when did life move from being precious to priceless? We lost 20 people to the disease in March. In the same month we lost another 13,000 or so to other ailments and accidents, but let’s not worry about them.
As more facts emerge about the virus, it looks as though it does most harm to the chronically sick or the elderly, as do most respiratory diseases. And when old age is combined with a pre-existing serious illness, you’re in real danger. So the high-risk group would be wise to take all precautions, withdraw from society if they wish, and resurface when there’s a vaccine. We could devote enormous resources to looking after them.
Instead, we are asking the healthy, most of whom will be no more than inconvenienced by this latest strain of flu, to sacrifice or cripple themselves, their livelihoods, their children’s future, to preserve people whose own future is already precarious and limited. Has anyone checked with the elderly, who tend to have a more sanguine outlook, to see if this economic suicide is what they want?
As individuals it’s excruciating to assign a value to human life, and happily few of us are obliged to do so; but as a society we make those calculations all the time. Our highway speed limit is 110km/h; we could reduce that to 20km/h and watch the fatalities tumble, but the inconvenience would be intolerable. We let people swim and surf (at least we used to) from wild, unpatrolled beaches, and sadly accept some of them will drown, measuring the pleasure of millions against the misfortune of a few.
We are always managing risk, but suddenly in this panic no risk, to anyone, is acceptable.
Even news organisations have adopted this position, their HR departments issuing earnest communiques that declare “the health and wellbeing of our employees is our paramount priority”. Sorry, since when? As part of my job I have been sent, and sent others, to war zones — yes, with bombs and bullets — to bring our readers the news. That’s what I thought our priority was as journalists. Now half my colleagues in the media have emerged as trembling amateur epidemiologists, scouring the online world to find the youngest and healthiest victim to ramp up the terror and prove this disease attacks anyone, not just the old and sick, when that’s manifestly not the case.
As Carl Heneghan, professor of evidence-based medicine at the University of Oxford, said last week, “people with no comorbidities can relax; you may feel funny but the mortality is incredibly low. The wider question is how we best manage people with comorbidities and keep them safe and out of hospital.” So far our leaders’ answer is to paralyse the country and the prospects of everyone in it.
In Sweden, never thought of as a nation of daredevils (they’re so safe they gave us ABBA and Volvos), the vulnerable are sequestered and cared for. They might have to sit things out until a vaccine is developed, while the rest of the people are visiting restaurants and bars, more or less as usual. So far it seems to be working.
No such luck here, though. Our reckless, hysterical governments tumble over each other to impose ever more ridiculous constraints on our liberty, supported by police forces that interpret their authority in a fashion sinister and absurd at the same time. And they have the audacity to quote “the Anzac spirit” as they order fit young men to cower in their trenches.
Some of us are not surprised that our elected leaders and their unelected enforcers have been found wanting, but what really shakes your faith in society is how meekly their ludicrous commands have been obeyed. Did anyone really think more than 500 people at Sydney’s Bondi Beach represent a threat? And if so, why the same 500 limit around the corner at Tamarama’s beach, a fraction of the size? And why a zero limit now? Why can’t a solo sunbaker lie on the grass in a park without a police car moving him on? Why can’t a boat owner take a run up the coast? Why can I only buy “essential” goods? Will PC Plod soon be inspecting my shopping bags for truffles and Toblerone?
Save your comments; I know there will be plenty of people rushing to justify any extreme measure that “saves someone’s life”. The curtain-twitchers are busy in Britain, dobbing in neighbours who leave their houses twice a day or have their girlfriend over. They’ve adapted to their police state very comfortably. Fortunate, perhaps, that Churchill’s World War II promise that “we will fight them on the beaches” was never tested.
The driver of this madness is that the data we are working with, as has been pointed out by many epidemiologists, is fundamentally flawed. If we don’t know how many people have been infected, we don’t know the mortality rate. One of our panic-stricken pollies was on the radio on Monday warning people that even if they felt fine, they could be walking around spreading the disease. A disease with no symptoms that doesn’t make you ill? Terrifying.
But those symptom-free people will never be counted, just as all the people who have avoided burdening the hospital system with their minor coughs and sore throats will never be counted, so the mortality rate is inflated. So too in Italy and Spain, where everyone who dies with the disease is recorded as dying from it, no matter whether they have been wiping their feet on death’s doormat for months.
You don’t need to be good at maths or medically trained to realise all these numbers are wickedly inaccurate. If the infection can manifest itself with mild symptoms or none, how on earth can we declare how many are infected? How many run-of-the-mill flu infections go uncounted each year? I’ve never been sufficiently troubled by a cold or flu to go to the doctor, so I’ve never featured in any statistics. Perhaps I’m freakishly lucky, but I doubt it.
Instead we have a simple division sum, but one where the denominator may be out by a factor of a hundred, or a thousand. If one in every 12 people infected dies, that’s a nightmare. One in every 1200, with 99 per cent of them already gravely ill and of advanced age, it’s not so frightening. And are the millions thrown out of work a price worth paying?
John Ioannidis, professor of medicine and epidemiology at Stanford University in the US, believes if we hadn’t given this new COVID-19 its own special scary sci-fi name and counted and tested it separately from ordinary colds and flu, “we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average”.
Instead, for many of our fellow citizens, this will be the year everything they’ve worked so hard for — their businesses, their savings, their jobs and dignity, their marriages, their sanity, their hopes and dreams and joy — evaporated.
One day we’ll emerge blinking into the economic wasteland we have wilfully created, but next year winter will come around again, and with it more flu, no doubt with another horror mutation.
So what will we do then? You can only kill yourself once.

[woodhutt]

Neil

Whilst not strictly on topic ( I do appreciate how we have arrived at this point) that is such a profound statement. It is not how many billionaires we have, but to reiterate:

" As a society I believe we should be judged by how well our most in need are managing. "

Regards
Paul

Well said, Paul. It's reminiscent of another quote that defines a true Democracy - not as a system that grants power to the majority, but how well that majority listens to minorities.

Another thing that should be borne in mind is that not everyone has internet access or a mobile phone. It has become prevalent here in NZ that you are now unable to contact any Government Agency (and a lot of NGO's too) other than by one of these means. Since retirement, I do not operate a mobile and recently tried to contact the IRD to sort out a tax code issue. I first tried their website which required me to open an "account". Reluctantly I did and began to follow the instructions to be able to lodge an enquiry. Then we got to the security check. "Please enter your mobile phone number." I have none and that's where the attempt stopped dead with the suggestion I ring the helpline. This I duly did and got a recorded voice asking me to key in my IRD number - done. "Next, we need a security check to verify you are who you say you are. Please state your mobile phone number." I don't have one. "Sorry we do not understand that response. Please state your mobile phone number..." End of call amid much swearing. The only phone number listed in the White Pges actually resulted in me talking to a very nice lady receptionist who said she was unable to put me through to anyone that could help and that I should call the very number I had just spent 15 frustrating minutes working through to a dead-end. So, back to basics, a snail mail letter (there is no email listed). I dug out the letter from IRD which advised me about the need to change my tax code and - lo and behold - no mailing address! Not a PO Box or Private Bag to be seen. So s...f 'em until this lockdown is over.:(( Pete

[BobL]

The driver of this madness is that the data we are working with, as has been pointed out by many epidemiologists, is fundamentally flawed. If we don’t know how many people have been infected, we don’t know the mortality rate.

That article has serious flaws and will do significant harm

One does not need to know the infection rate to indicate significant non-normality in death rates.
Just compare the number of deaths per day relative to the usual death rate.


In Lombardy with about 10 million people and about a 90 year longevity, about 300 persons should be dying per day, instead they have days with 600, 700, 800 persons dying.
No flu season in the last 90 decades loses 50 skilled doctors and removes 2000 nurses due to quarantine from a single region like Lombardy
And that is all happening with VERY significant population measures and drastic medical interventions.

I'll leave it to the medical modellers to work out what would have happened if little or nothing was done.

The article appears to have been written some time ago as the references to Sweden and other places having relaxed social distancing and relative normality no longer apply. Sweden now has as fast a COVID19 growth rate as the rest of Europe and even Singapore just a day or so ago has gone from a relatively relaxed open stance to a seriously hard shutdown harder even than us.

Let's see what happens in 3rd world countries where people are packed together like sardines and basically zero medical intervention when this thing really takes off.

[Lappa]

At of yesterday, 59131 people lost their lives to this virus in 3.5 months and that’s only the reported numbers. Let’s say 5% would have died anyway due to old age, pre existing conditions etc.

Thats still 56,114 PEOPLE that died due to this virus and it’s not done with us yet. Not all the dying are old.

If that’s not a wake up call to people who think this is nothing to worry about, well ????

[Tccp123]

We lost 20 people to the disease in Australia in March. In the same month we lost another 13,000 or so to other ailments and accidents

13,000 in one month, and that's just Australia. We only have 26,000,000 people...

[FenceFurniture]

I think to trivialise the seriousness of the situation when it is only a little way past its infancy is somewhat shortsighted, to say the very least. If it turns out to be not too bad after all, in say a couple of months, then that will be different, and I'm quite sure there will be recriminations aplenty.

OTOH, if it turns into the disaster that it is feared to be brewing, it will then be interesting to see what the current doubters have to say...assuming they are still around (because they are more likely to expose themselves to risk through not being diligent).

We'll see.

[Lappa]

We lost 20 people to the disease in Australia in March. In the same month we lost another 13,000 or so to other ailments and accidents

13,000 in one month, and that's just Australia. We only have 26,000,000 people...

And that is 20 people who wouldn’t have died if this virus was not existent. If you look at the numbers of deaths, they are accelerating. What the numbers would have been like if these isolation measures hadn’t been brought in is only conjecture . I remember one health professional saying “ if at the end if all this, numbers are low due these measures and people say what was all the fuss about, I’ll be more that happy to be called a scare monger”.

When was the last time Italy used its Churches as morgues, Spain used an ice skating rink as a morgue,

Its not just about deaths either.
When was the last time Central Park was a field hospital, When was the last time London turned a mile long exhibition centre into a hospital.

I reckon we appear to have got off lightly, but only time will tell.

[woodPixel]

The article that TCCP123 posted is quite thought provoking.

I really do try to read articles and opinions of those I disagree with.

In this case, it mirrors exactly what my own father thinks. I disagree with him.... a lot :D

One aspect that hasn't been considered in the writers contemplations is that people don't just get a sniffle and light cough. They get heaving damaging respiratory damage, kidney problems, loss of small and taste... and I'm reading more and more of STERILITY in men, and in some brain damage.

It might not kill you, but like polio and measles it can F*ck You Up.

This is the mystery. So much is unknown. So much was covered up.

China has done the world no favours with its actions. It is not incompetence, or a system overloaded. Chinas secrecy and suppression are directly responsible for the situation we are now in. If they had been open, sharing, responsive and not engaged with their BS, then we'd have the deep information that we all need.... Now....

Instead, they encouraged/allowed their citizens to flee the country, spread this disaster everywhere else, then shut the borders. These are not the actions of a friend. This was deliberate. They are the actions of a certified ENEMY.

When this is all dealt with, there must be an accounting.

[FenceFurniture]

20 Australians for 31 days in March.

10 in the last 54 hours.

[Tccp123]

OK I give up. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink. You've obviously made up your minds and nothing is going to dissuade you from that.

All I can say is I (and I'm not alone though I appear to be here) hope I'm right and the rest of you are wrong, and that's not so that I can come back and say I told you so.

See you down the dole queue :)

[Beardy]

OK I give up. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink. You've obviously made up your minds and nothing is going to dissuade you from that.

All I can say is I (and I'm not alone though I appear to be here) hope I'm right and the rest of you are wrong, and that's not so that I can come back and say I told you so.

See you down the dole queue :)

i get what you are saying and agree with the measured approach the govt has taken to minimise the “ overall “ damage but at the same time am mindful that we could turn into a Italy type scenario if we are not careful
Time will tell.

[Bushmiller]

Another thing that should be borne in mind is that not everyone has internet access or a mobile phone.

Pete

I so understand.

While I have a mobile phone, as in I own one, there is no credit on it and for the rare times I use it (twice in a big year) the number has often been removed because it has been inactive for too long. Also I would have to find it if I needed to use it. Right now I have no idea where it is. To all intent and purpose, I don't have a mobile, but like you I have got to a point in an online registration where entering a mobile number is mandatory. Usually that is where it all finishes for me.

Sorry Graeme Cook: Off topic, again. :-

As this thread, which I believe is very informative (information can be good and bad) and very necessary in these troubled times, has become a little fractious at times, I felt you would not mind a little light relief:

470899

:rolleyes:

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

I agree, keep the surgical grade PPE for the med staff.

However, basic washable masks - even a bandana or a pair of undies will be better than nothing, one in the wash and one on the face when you go outside.... .


Bob, we are still waiting for you to post the photos.

What style of underpants do you wear as a mask when shopping at Coles? Perhaps Prada, a well known Lombardy clothing brand?

[GraemeCook]

...
Must say, I'm terribly interested in how places like Iran, India and Africa are doing. I hear so little about them - and they, i think, are REALLY going to cop it hard.

Poor bastards.......




I share your fears. But Africa has dealt surprisingly well with the ebola virus with little more, resource-wise, than common sense.

[Bushmiller]

l

It would appear that my flippant remark from post #69 is starting to become reality with cloth masks and undergarments being suggested for use. The fans of Victoria's Secret and Agent Provocateur may have to revisit K-Mart for some Mighty Whities!

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

...

Sorry Graeme Cook: Off topic, again. :-

....

470899

:rolleyes:

Regards
Paul


No, Paul, right on topic. The topic has been constantly evolving for the better.....

Apart from a few thoughtless posts from Ghengis Khan's followers in the callous right or the self-righteous right or whatever you call them.

[FenceFurniture]

Bob, we are still waiting for you to post the photos.

What style of underpants do you wear as a mask when shopping at Coles? Perhaps Prada?Probably a G-string from his pole dancing days (suggestion: DO NOT try to picture this in your mind's eye).

[BobL]

All I can say is I (and I'm not alone though I appear to be here) hope I'm right and the rest of you are wrong, and that's not so that I can come back and say I told you so.

I also hope you are right, but the data is not looking good.

Most people don't understand that the whole thing is on a hair line trigger and things happen too fast to try to contain things after they have happened. Even though they are not always right I'd rather ride on the side of caution based on what a consensus group of medical experts say rather that a bunch of lone rangers etc.


I share your fears. But Africa has dealt surprisingly well with the ebola virus with little more, resource-wise, than common sense.
Major difference with Ebola is its asymptotic transmissions is much lower than COVID19
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(17)30110-X/fulltext


Bob, we are still waiting for you to post the photos.
What style of underpants do you wear as a mask when shopping at Coles? Perhaps Prada?
I haven't been into a shop since we started wearing masks 2 weeks ago and FWIW my undies are mostly very saggy/baggy/thin Rio's.
SWMBO will not deal with them so I have to wash my own.

[NeilS]

...the more you know about something the more you realise how little you know about even that "something".



Prexactly, Bob.

[BobL]

At of yesterday, 59131 people lost their lives to this virus in 3.5 months and that’s only the reported numbers. Let’s say 5% would have died anyway due to old age, pre existing conditions etc.

Thing is, we are only just getting started and are likely to have to survive more than one dose, there will be other (mutated and possibly more virulent) waves.

My BOTE suggests that about 50% of the older people that are dying would have died sometime in the next year. BUT as Neil says, even if you are 75 years old you still might have liked to live for 6 more months.

This doesn't take into account the loss of many skilled medical people being lost.
For these, the number that would have died this year is much lower - maybe more like 5% and it will take decades to replace these people.
eg Anaesthetists take years of training to get up to speed.

Even if you escape COVID19 you could be affected for the rest of your life with it because of the loss of specialised medical people removed from the medical pool. When you need urgent surgery in a few years time and are told sorry we don't have enough anaesthetists, go to the end of the queue, you may finally be sorry you dodged quarantine, had a few quite ones with mates, or did not wear A BASIC mask to the supermarket.

[Lappa]

Wife’s been busy!

470902If

[BobL]

Me ~33 years ago working in our second generation ultra clean air facility at Uni.

The pipette contains triple distilled nitric acid along with an environmental sample being deposited and then evaporated from a rhenium metal mass spectrometer filament.
Note two pairs of acid washed plastic gloves with cotton liners
470903
The mask (made by SWMBO) was not to stop me breathing anything in (although HNO3 is not nice stuff) but to reduce the amount of contamination I might breath onto the sample.
The main contaminants in human breath that concerned us was sodium and ammonia and while we were not analysing for these elements they suppressed the detection of others. Even an open weave T-shirt cloth like this reduced the amount of Na and NH3 present down to the tiny amounts normally present in the HNO3, despite the triple distillation.

I should ALSO add there was a 1600 CFM ultra-HEPA (99.997% >0.3 microns) clean air flow directed down from the ceiling directly over the sample which generated an air curtain between the operator and the sample. This air was carried away down to a plastic floor with lots of holes in it and then scrubbed and recirculated back through the HEPA filter.

Later we adopted a plastic shroud between the sample and operator and loaded samples under a microscope.
This was very awkward so the plastic was eventually replaced with a perspex shield

470904

[woodPixel]

I love seeing super dooper mega accurate science being done and the techs are wearing plastic sheets and home made masks.

Its excellent stuff. Shows that basic can be good.

[BobL]

I found a pair of undies that were not too stained and are suitable for a mask.
The beard coverage is excellent.

470929

[FenceFurniture]

Today's spreadsheet attached (as at Saturday 4th April, 23:59 GMT).

Points to note:


Countries with 2000+ cases account for 66% of world population. 3 days ago it was 44%, 6 days ago 35%
USA cases up 43%, deaths up 75%, and the death rate is climbing significantly.
Spanish and Italian increases are modest (cases and deaths) but the death rate is still climbing (due to the time it takes to die).
France, UK, Turkey, Canada, Brazil death rates are all blowing out.
None of the 2000+ countries have a death rate <0.5%.
European death rates are really bad overall, occupying 7 of the top 9 spots. Same for infection rate with 12/12 spots, and 16/19 spots.
Asian infection rates are all towards the bottom.
No African or Central American countries with 2000+ cases yet.
Australia's new case rate has dropped significantly in the last 3 days to 14.2%, but deaths and death rate have increased (due to the time it takes to die).



BTW, a favour from someone please: can you tell me if the spreadsheet gives you the same colours as this screenshot? No need to check each cell, just approx will do.
470938

[BobL]

Had a chat with my Italian cousin who owns/runs a small electric motor factory near Padua. They are all OK and because electric motor replacement is deemed essential he can still run his factory albeit in a reduce operational state. His factory is right next to his house so no travelling for him to work but they do provide a delivery and replacement service for which he sends out one of his young blokes. All his workers have to wear masks and gloves and the have cranked the ventilation up.

[Lappa]

Had a scheduled meeting with my wife’s Superannuation Financial adviser yesterday (was planned back in February)
Funds have been hit but I’m still on track to retire beginning of next year.:2tsup:
He explained these “dips” happen approx. every 10 years - 2001, 2007/2008, 2019/2020 so don’t panic. Interestingly, looking at the DOW ( lots of figures available) it took about 18 months after 2001, 4 years after 2007/2008 to come back to pre slump figures. The DOW last month was down 26%, 2007/2008 down 33% and 2001/2002 down 16%.
When we were cleaning out FIL’s papers, we came across a chart his father had copied from Tritch 1872 predicting panic years, depression years and good years. 2019 is listed as a panic year :oo:

[GraemeCook]

Had a takeaway pizza last night, and a local GP was also in the pickup queue, standing on his "X". Discussed masks.

He said that medical masks reduced risks of infection but did not eliminate them. Once a mask got wet - from breathing, sneezing or coughing, or any other cause - then it lost its effectiveness dramatically. "A saturated mask actually increases the risk of infection." [That surprised me, too.] He emphasised that masks had to be changed regularly. Under normal circumstances a mask was fine for two hours, was probably saturated after three hours, in absolute best case situation it might take four hours. After that it was counterproductive and gave a false sense of security.

He said that at the moment they had "almost enough" masks, but no reserve stock; they have to be frugal. What happens if their is a glytch in the supply? Do we - doctors, nurses and receptionists - take unnecessay risks, or do we decline to see patients. We have chosen not to see any new patients; we are overloaded.

They were also preparing for a shortage of masks. Moderately soiled masks were being laundered in a washer/dryer and then vacuum sealed in batches of twenty...... "while we work out what to do..." if they really are forced to reuse masks. He said that they tried dry cleaning masks but the smell made everyone feel sick. He said the prime problem was washing, drying and storing the masks in sterile conditions. A GP's practice is not equipped to do that.

He said that he and his staff were all wearing "work clothes" at work, changing to "travel clothes" to go home, showering immediately on arriving home and then donning "home clothes". Washing hands with hot water, soap and brush hourly, washing hands between patients, and hand cleanser "when needed".

He and his colleagues are exposed, his family is indirectly exposed, they are very knowledgable and they are taking it very seriously.

He said that always, all gowns are washed every night. Gloves are also a potential problem and they cannot be reused.

[GraemeCook]

....
Funds have been hit but I’m still on track to retire beginning of next year.:2tsup:

He explained these “dips” happen approx. every 10 years - 2001, 2007/2008, 2019/2020 so don’t panic. .......


There has been a massive discussion on this in the professional and academic literature over the last 100+ years. The concensus seems to be that there is an investment cycle and that cycles last between 7 and 10 years. But it is impossible to predict when they start and when they end. Its "good" to be in equities (shares) on the rising market, and "good" to be in cash (bonds, bank deposits) in the troughs. But as you cannot predict the transition, by switching to cash after a trough has started then you are locking yourself out of the future rising market.

Just think about it; if you could reliably predict the timing of the transition, then you would very quickly be a billionaire!

[Lappa]

He wasn’t trying to predict rises and falls nor suggest that I try and predict same, he was just giving examples. His message was simple - they happen - don’t panic.

The other move the Govt has taken on Super is to halve the minimum amount you have to take out. So, if you can live on less, you can now draw less and reduce the drain on your Capital.

[GraemeCook]

He wasn’t trying to predict rises and falls nor suggest that I try and predict same, he was just giving examples. His message was simple - they happen - don’t panic,


I realise that, Lappa. Looks like you have one of the few competent fnancial advisors around.

[BobL]

Had a takeaway pizza last night, and a local GP was also in the pickup queue, standing on his "X". Discussed masks.

He said that medical masks reduced risks of infection but did not eliminate them.

I agree.


Under normal circumstances a mask was fine for two hours,
If anyone can't get their grocery shopping done in under that time then they're either seriously dawdling in the aisles or going to the wrong supermarket.

The protocol my son and SWMBO are using using with reusable masks is to use a fresh masks and new gloves when social distancing is unavailable like shops. When all shopping is done the masks are removed with gloved hands and placed in a plastic bag, and the gloves are disposed of. When they come home the masks and plastic bag are hung on a line outside and saturate sprayed with a 80% meths water mix and left to dry out. When we go out like to exercise dogs we always take fresh masks and gloves in case we unavoidably have to interact with someone. I don't go into any shops etc. The tear day I did fill the car with diesel wearing disposable gloves but SWMBO went in and paid.

[BobL]

MC bro has come up with a few masks designs of his own.

Sport model
470967

Race model - with built in BMH - only suitable for keeping out large bits like rock, nuts and washers.
470968 470969

[NeilS]

There has been a massive discussion on this in the professional and academic literature over the last 100+ years. The consensus seems to be that there is an investment cycle and that cycles last between 7 and 10 years. But it is impossible to predict when they start and when they end. Its "good" to be in equities (shares) on the rising market, and "good" to be in cash (bonds, bank deposits) in the troughs. But as you cannot predict the transition, by switching to cash after a trough has started then you are locking yourself out of the future rising market.

Just think about it; if you could reliably predict the timing of the transition, then you would very quickly be a billionaire!

From my experience nobody can pick the very top or the very bottom, well not consistently. Try catching a falling knife, if you get it wrong it goes badly wrong.

I did manage to sell out of tech stocks 2 weeks before the dot-com bubble burst in 2,000. I was heavily involved with the Internet things at the time so had some insights.

Pulled back while still above ASX 5,000 before the big drop in the GFC (that was a train wreck waiting to happen for all to see) and went back in hard starting in Dec 2008.

I had pulled back modestly well before the current downturn, not that I or anyone else could see the virus or its impact coming, but mainly because of the overvalued US market and uncertainty about what the Twit might do next, like start a war somewhere. Good move to get re-elected, but bad for everyone and everything else.

Have been currently buying back in since 23 March and leaving some powder dry for further falls, but that could go badly wrong.

But invariably I leave a bit on the table when I sell down before the peak and leave some on the floor buying back in late on the upswing. Selling down is the easier bit. Judging when to buy back in is the challenging bit. It's a mug's game; one wrong call and you will be joining the queue at Centrelink.

And, you can at best only do a bit better than staying invested at whatever you decide is your risk level, which is what sensible people do.

Excellent advice there (in my unqualified opinion) from your adviser Lappa in regards to taking advantage of the temporary reduced minimum amount you are required to draw down on your super. If you can live on less, reduce your draw down to protect your Capital until it recovers. That should be easier while eating out is curtailed, interstate and overseas holidays are off, and the car is mostly parked in the garage.

Note: If it is not already bleeding obvious, I have no qualifications or certification to give anyone any financial or investment advice. I recommend that everyone get independent professional advice before making any financial decisions. I have found the free and expert financial advisers from my Industry SuperFund fund have been excellent, that is in my unqualified opinion.

Anyway, I'm getting a bit off topic here.

[GraemeCook]

...
If anyone can't get their grocery shopping done in under that time then they're either seriously dawdling in the aisles or going to the wrong supermarket.

...


I also agree, Bob, but the GP was specifically talking about the masking needs of his medical practice. Standards presumably would need to be a little higher than a shopping expedition and they would need protection all day.

[BobL]

I also agree, Bob, but the GP was specifically talking about the masking needs of his medical practice. Standards presumably would need to be a little higher than a shopping expedition and they would need protection all day.

Agree - I was specifically referring to the average non-medical user not needing the same standard of protection of a medical professional.

[kungsleden]

The US is desperate,even some hospitals in the US are now accepting home made masks

Childrens hospital of Philadelphia.
Making Homemade Face Masks | Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (https://www.chop.edu/how-make-homemade-diy-face-mask)

CDC expected to reverse position on home made masks
Homemade face masks and coronavirus: New CDC guidelines expected and everything to know - CNET (https://www.cnet.com/how-to/homemade-face-masks-and-coronavirus-new-cdc-guidelines-expected-and-everything-to-know/)

Minnesota Dept of HEALTH
https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/hcp/masksalt.pdf


And that coming from a country that has been providing sanitising wipes in supermarkets for ages. :D

[NeilS]

Selling down is the easier bit. Judging when to buy back in is the challenging bit. It's a mug's game; one wrong call and you will be joining the queue at Centrelink.

And, you can at best only do a bit better than staying invested at whatever you decide is your risk level, which is what sensible people do.



And, the advice from Choice...

"trying to get out of high risk investments at the peak and back in at the bottom is highly unpredictable and can leave you chasing your losses."

[doug3030]

I found a pair of undies that were not too stained and are suitable for a mask.
The beard coverage is excellent.

470929

And suddenly the world changed.

Not only is there no stigma attached to wearing your undies on your head in public any more, it is actually looked upon as being socially responsible.

Who would have thought it a couple of short weeks ago.

[FenceFurniture]

Jaysus. USA has added 6500 cases in the last 11 hours! On today's death rate of 2.7% just that will result in another 175 deaths in the coming weeks, just from that half day period.

As I posted before, the deaths are 2-3 weeks behind.

[BobL]

Not only is there no stigma attached to wearing your undies on your head in public any more, it is actually looked upon as being socially responsible.

My sister said it could be genetic and reminded me that in his 60s dad would wear a pair of undies on his head and sing when he drank too much grappa. I don't drink (much) but recently took up having an espresso with grappa every other day - no sign of any singing though.

[BobL]

I've been a participant in the annual national (regular/seasonal) flu tracker program for a few years.

Flutracking.net | Tracking Influenza Across Australia and New Zealand (https://info.flutracking.net)

If you join you get a weekly email reminder/link to click on to answer half a dozen yes-no questions about flu like symptoms.
It takes about 30s each week to participate - very easy.

Normally this survey starts in mid April each year but this year because of COVID19 they started tracking earlier.
These are the results so far.
471020
Its early days but it looks like flu like symptoms in the community are lower than usual and one might then ask why?
It's too early for the early release of the regular flu vaccine to have had an effect.
Perhaps it's due to people staying at home, washing their hands and participating in social distancing.
If this continues there will be fewer people getting (and dying from) the regular flu so maybe the relatively few people (so far) dying from COVID will be compensated for by fewer regular flu victims?

Flu tracker also shows where various symptoms are located around AUS. This is the cough and fever data.
the data is by post code and the map on the Flu Tracker website can be zoomed in on see finer detail.
Looks like North Island NZ is getting knocked around a bit.
471019

[woodPixel]

BobL, this is EXACTLY what is needed for this bloody WuFlu.

EXACTLY.

If people could register, update with daily temp, pulse, breathe rate, O2 and blood pressure (I've you've a little machine)*

Perfect. Maybe it should be mandatory.... especially for those already tested positive.



* All of this stuff is so cheap now, everyone should have them really. Finger O2 and pulse meters are $20 on eBay.

[doug3030]

My sister said it could be genetic and reminded me that in his 60s dad would wear a pair of undies on his head and sing when he drank too much grappa. I don't drink (much) but recently took up having an espresso with grappa every other day - no sign of any singing though.

Call me old fashioned and out of touch with current societal trends if you like but I am still holding on to the belief that singing, even badly, would be more socially acceptable than wearing your undies on your head in public. :rolleyes:

[BobL]

BobL, this is EXACTLY what is needed for this bloody WuFlu.

EXACTLY.

If people could register, update with daily temp, pulse, breathe rate, O2 and blood pressure (I've you've a little machine)*
Perfect. Maybe it should be mandatory.... especially for those already tested positive.

* All of this stuff is so cheap now, everyone should have them really. Finger O2 and pulse meters are $20 on eBay.

Well sign up then and forward it around to others. Its fully sanctioned by NSW Health.
They currently only have about 40k regular participants but unlike single COVID19 tests, participants report every week so it gives a better "in time" picture of what is going on.

[BobL]

Call me old fashioned and out of touch with current societal trends if you like but I am still holding on to the belief that singing, even badly, would be more socially acceptable than wearing your undies on your head in public. :rolleyes:

If all one did after a few too many drinks was wear undies on head and sing that wouldn't be so bad, well better than driving and beating someone up anyway.

[woodhutt]

And suddenly the world changed.

Not only is there no stigma attached to wearing your undies on your head in public any more, it is actually looked upon as being socially responsible.

If only we could persuade young females into this habit. But I guess there's not much facial protection from a G-string. Pete

[Bushmiller]

[QUOTE=doug3030;2181434]And suddenly the world changed.

Not only is there no stigma attached to wearing your undies on your head in public any more, it is actually looked upon as being socially responsible.

If only we could persuade young females into this habit. But I guess there's not much facial protection from a G-string. Pete

Particularly if under the influence of alcohol you get them on back to front by accident.

:(

Regards
Paul

[doug3030]

Looks like there has been some error in the editing of the quoting codes.

Just to make it clear, I did not post anything about young females and g-strings, despite what the quotes are displaying in a couple of posts above.

Maybe a moderator might be able to fix the codes.

[NeilS]

Just to make it clear, I did not post anything about young females and g-strings, despite what the quotes are displaying in a couple of posts above.

Maybe a moderator might be able to fix the codes.



Most likely it was a case of Paul unintentionally hitting the multi-quote button and not quite sorting out the consequences of that (multi-quoting is a bit tricky).... So, Woodhutt's start of quote is there above the quote box, but no end of quote, and as a result his quote appears to be attributed to you, Doug.

[Bushmiller]

Most likely it was a case of Paul unintentionally hitting the multi-quote button and not quite sorting out the consequences of that (multi-quoting is a bit tricky).... So, Woodhutt's start of quote is there above the quote box, but no end of quote, and as a result and unintentionally his quote appears to be attributed to you, Doug.

Thanks Neil and apologies Doug

I did not intentionally change anything. The skill required to multi quote has eluded me for the sixteen years I have contributed to the Forum with the one exception that about a week ago I did successfully do a multi quote, but I still don't know how I did it and have not be able to replicate the task again.

So in short I just hit "reply with quote" and I have absolutely no idea how the two posts became one. Just to state my position on the undies for mask thingy, from my very sheltered perspective, I think they probably look a lot better worn as originally intended: But not on everyone.

Regards
Paul

[woodhutt]

My apologies Doug. I haven't quite got the hang of quoting the post I'm answering. And, for the benefit of other members and/or moderators, Doug did NOT mention young ladies or G-strings. I thought it might raise a smile and apologise for any offence anyone may have experienced. Pete

[doug3030]

Most likely it was a case of Paul unintentionally hitting the multi-quote button and not quite sorting out the consequences of that (multi-quoting is a bit tricky).... So, Woodhutt's start of quote is there above the quote box, but no end of quote, and as a result his quote appears to be attributed to you, Doug.

Thanks Neil,

I understand how the quote codes work. I fix them myself all the time on other forums where I have moderator privileges.

[NeilS]

I understand how the quote codes work. I fix them myself all the time on other forums where I have moderator privileges.



Yes, Doug, basic quotes are relatively straight forward, it's those multi-quotes on this forum software that can get us all tripped up at times.

And, if we happen to have any bushrangers on the forums they can fiddle the codes if they have a mind to do so....:U

[doug3030]

Most likely it was a case of Paul unintentionally hitting the multi-quote button and not quite sorting out the consequences of that (multi-quoting is a bit tricky).... So, Woodhutt's start of quote is there above the quote box, but no end of quote, and as a result his quote appears to be attributed to you, Doug.Thanks Neil,

I understand how the quote codes work. I fix them myself all the time on other forums where I have moderator privileges.

Yes, Doug, basic quotes are relatively straight forward, it's those multi-quotes on this forum software that can get us all tripped up at times.

And, if we happen to have any bushrangers on the forums they can fiddle the codes if they have a mind to do so....:U

And if you really want to you can go back and put the whole conversation into one post. Oh the fun I could have doing that all day. :rolleyes:

[NeilS]

OK, I'm back banging on about modelling.

Please tune out if this is not your thing.

The reported data that we are getting on the number of cases and deaths, etc, tells us what has happened and there is much value in that for us and our governments, and this will also be invaluable for those who manage future pandemics once all the data is in after this one. However, those managing the current crisis don't have the benefit of hindsight (other than from some lesser epidemics over the last few decades) so they are having to make many critical decisions based on the available modelling.

The deputy chief medical officer agreed last week to release the modelling that they are working on, but that has not happened. I suspect that there is disagreement in the inner circle with the timing on that.

On The Drum last Thursday (?) the/a chief modeller expressed the value of having the models that are being used open to the public. In his view, doing so improves compliance with restrictions. I detected a hint of frustration that this has not happened already. No conspiracy theory on this, just a sign that perhaps we have less than the most competent at the helm.

In contrast, NZ has been releasing and updating its modelling since 27 Feb.

COVID-19 Modelling reports | Ministry of Health NZ (https://www.health.govt.nz/publication/covid-19-modelling-reports)

Perhaps it is no coincidence that NZ is performing so well. They also learned a very big lesson during the 1918 flu pandemic.

I previously posted a link to some modelling on bed, ICU, ventilator and predicted deaths in the US. So far it has been tracking closely to the predictions. Here is the link again. The third graph shows total deaths. Note: Time-wise the US is behind us by about a day (and much more in other ways...:rolleyes: ).

COVID-19 (https://covid19.healthdata.org/)

I think someone must have shown Donald Duck some projection curves and it seems that it won't be business as usual again by Easter.

There are of course many issues around modelling. Even the experts in the field admit that it has its flaws as quoted in the following briefing; Epidemic modelers are the first to admit their projections can be off. “All models are wrong, but some are useful”.

Modelling the Coronavirus Pandemic to Guide Policy (https://riskfrontiers.com/modelling-the-coronavirus-pandemic-to-guide-policy-in-real-time/) decisions.

Imperfect as they are models are the best we have to guide our decision making in times like these, otherwise ideology or politicking will prevail with potentially disastrous consequences.

I look forward to finally seeing the modelling that is being used here in Australia.

[Bushmiller]

Ok

You blokes totally lost me when you started talking "codes." I am but a simple man who doesn't use a mobile phone. This episode has ruined my self belief to the extent I will never ever quote a post for the rest of the day.

Under the circumstances, I am also no longer going ahead with my request to woodhutt for pictures. Having regard to my current luck it would surely get tacked on to a post from the Benevolent Dictator!

Regards
Paul

PS: At least one person in workplace gets me to test his programmes. His claim is that if they survive me, they are bulletproof.