CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[BobL]

Impossible to enforce or achieve. I love the “if possible”. In other words, just get on with your job. We actually have students phoning/emailing in saying they won’t be attending because of the virus and this is supported fully by their employers.

Tough one Lappa. This advice may have been OK 2-3 weeks ago but not today. I don't think any ed institutions should be open at this time.

[44Ronin]

Because until 3500 people die deaths from COVID19 won't exceed the numbers of deaths per year from the flu.

Problem is when something can grow exponentially things can happen real fast.

In the case of the region of Italy (about the same population as Australia) where most of deaths have occurred., the numbers of dead have gone from new zero to 1800 in about 3 weeks.

The same for the main infection zone in china which has about double the pop of Australia. Here the deaths went from near zero to 3000 in about 4 weeks. They did implemented severe controls and now have near zero deaths per day for COVID19 - much less than the annual flu.

The hygiene measures and controls for COVID also put the dampers on the regular flu as well.

Ok so its just like the flu due to arbitrary comparison of figures....?

Right...

[woodPixel]

I’m a teacher and work in workshop with two other teachers and 36 students. We have small quiet rooms for the students for theory work. Most of our work is of a practical nature with students having to share tools, test equipment as we don’t have the luxury of 1 item per student.

This is the advice we got today

“INFORMATION FOR TEACHING STAFF​Some of our students might be feeling anxious about coming to classes, so we need to make sure that they have all the facts they need. It will be important to regularly remind our students of the importance of good hygiene and maintaining social distance to reduce the transmission of COVID 19.
Here are a few simple things that you can implement in each of your classes:
1.Ensure all students have washed their hands, if possible immediately before joining the class.
2.Ask students to maintain a social distance of at least 1.2 metres. If possible, organise your classroom seating to accommodate this.
3.Where there are practical activities, avoid sharing of equipment that is handled by more than one person, if that is possible.”

Impossible to enforce or achieve. I love the “if possible”. In other words, just get on with your job. We actually have students phoning/emailing in saying they won’t be attending because of the virus and this is supported fully by their employers.


You are expendable.

What do they do when the teachers and admins themselves are forced into lockdown.

I dont follow the logic of "you cant work, but kids can stay at school".

This is going to bring the WuFlu home to mum, dad, grandma faster than a million Typhoid Marys'

[AlexS]

The NSW Dept. of School Education already has online courses available for students who have passed the selective high school entry exams but live in remote areas. They are available online via Aurora College. I know that the courses would have to be tailored a bit, but surely they set up quickly for general students, with supervision by their regular teachers. It seems like a software & hardware solution that wouldn't be too hard to implement.
Of course, NSW TAFE OTEN (Open Training and Education Network) was set up to run hundreds of different online courses, including high school courses, but successive state & commonwealth governments destroyed TAFE.

[Lappa]

.
Of course, NSW TAFE OTEN (Open Training and Education Network) was set up to run hundreds of different online courses, including high school courses, but successive state & commonwealth governments destroyed TAFE.

Amen to that.

[GraemeCook]

Hi Graeme
If you look carefully at what Canada's Deputy Prime Minister (Chrystia Freeland) said, ......

Europe might be tightly integrated, but trade in food is mostly a cross border operation that, as far as I know, the current country wide lock downs in Europe allow to continue.
......
So I would dispute your "profits before people" assertion.

Enjoying this exchange, Ian.

I rarely listen to what a politician says. Always look at what they do, or don't do.

Not sure of details. My understanding is the goods are flowing reasonably within EU but people are fairly restricted. Bob's Italian cousins might be able to confirm.

Not current on American theology, Ian, but is your last statement blasphemy or sacriledge?

[GraemeCook]

Why are people still comparing it to the flu?

Really.....

Talk to a virologist or, as I have done, to a specialist in public health. There are very close similarities between the viruses and their impacts.

[Bushmiller]

Talk to a virologist or, as I have done, to a specialist in public health. There are very close similarities between the viruses and their impacts.

Yes

Corona Viruses are the flu. Covi19 is this particular outbreak.

There are however certain aspects that set this flu, Covid 19, apart from many of the foregoing. It is a little on the academic side of things to compare this latest flu with the predecessors as it is still in the relatively early stages before escalation. However history is a good teacher from which we can learn, although there are clearly a number of people not paying attention. To my mind, on a world wide basis, we should be referring to the potential to escalate. For the moment only a handful of countries are in the catastrophe zone.

Regards
Paul

[44Ronin]

Yes

Corona Viruses are the flu.

Not it is not, its not a strain of influenza.

[BobL]

My understanding is that Corona virus is a generic name for a wide range of bugs. The usual seasonal flu(S) are and COVID19 are examples. They will both mutate and change around over time and it takes som smarts to keep track and develop vaccines for each which is why you need anew flu shot every year. COVID in one form or other could be with us for many years.

[woodPixel]

Interesting read

Coronavirus crisis sees a volunteer army of thousands offer help to healthcare workers and the elderly - ABC News (https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/volunteer-army-responds-to-coronavirus-covid-19-crisis/12064018)

[ian]

I'm now writing the #312 post in this thread ...

This paper from the Imperial College (in London?) https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf suggests that, in the UK and US context, school closures, if implemented, would need to be maintained till a effective vaccine becomes available in 12 to 18 months time. In the Australian context that would mean schools remaining closed for the rest of 2020 and probably the first half of 2021. So delaying year 12 completion (and hence potential university admission) to the end of the 2022 academic year. I'm not sure that the educational institutions (universities) could sustain a 3 year break in their pipeline of new student admissions.


To quote from the paper's conclusion -- "... school closure is predicted to be insufficient to mitigate (never mind suppress) an epidemic in isolation; this contrasts with the situation in seasonal influenza epidemics,where children are the key drivers of transmission due to adults having higher immunity levels." [My emphasis.]


If you get beyond the first couple of pages, the paper contains a series of charts that predict
1. in the unlikely scenario of no effective control measures 2.2 million people on the US will die, in the UK the number of deaths is predicted to be 510,000.
2. in the case where school and university closures are implemented, the virus will likely result in a second peak of mortality in November/December 2020.

[ian]

Enjoying this exchange, Ian.

I rarely listen to what a politician says. Always look at what they do, or don't do.

Not sure of details. My understanding is the goods are flowing reasonably within EU but people are fairly restricted. Bob's Italian cousins might be able to confirm.

Not current on American theology, Ian, but is your last statement blasphemy or sacriledge?I intended it to be more a reflection of reality.

of course people should come before profit,

but when the logistics supply chain for essentials relies entirely on the person driving the delivery truck -- in the case of my local Safeway store, dry goods picking and palletting is largely automated at the distribution warehouse -- it's the truck driver who is perhaps more essential to the community surviving this epidemic than individual health care workers.
Just one truck driver can deliver 4,200 cubic feet, say 120 cu.m, (US/Canadian trailers are up to 53' long), that's a whole lot of "stuff" going to a single store.

[Tccp123]

"but when the logistics supply chain for essentials relies entirely on the person driving the delivery truck"

Where's Elon Musk when you need him? Surely a few hundred of those autonomous trucks he's been spruiking should make a big dent in the problem?

[BobL]

I'm now writing the #312 post in this thread ...

This paper from the Imperial College (in London?) https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf suggests that, in the UK and US context, school closures, if implemented, would need to be maintained till a effective vaccine becomes available in 12 to 18 months time. In the Australian context that would mean schools remaining closed for the rest of 2020 and probably the first half of 2021. So delaying year 12 completion (and hence potential university admission) to the end of the 2022 academic year. I'm not sure that the educational institutions (universities) could sustain a 3 year break in their pipeline of new student admissions.

It wouldn't be a complete break as my understanding is, on average, the number of new students that come direct from school only represent about half of the intake (it differs markedly for each course). The other half would be overseas students, and deferring and mature age entries. A few years back WA universities has to cope with a shift of 6 months of the entry into primary schools which fed through 12 years later to an intake with only half the usual "direct out of school" first year uni intake and although it was not easy they managed. The Unis of course had to carry that through the 3-6 years of courses but with numerous course transfers and more deferred/returning students etc by the final year of course there was not much of a difference in year numbers in most courses.

I've been following the pros and cons about closing down schools. I don't buy the herd immunity concept but there is some research that suggests that unlike the flu kids are not cross infecting each other as rapidly as first thought. What is more likely is infected kids infecting adults so eventually schools will have to close when too many teachers get infected or leave. One of my sisters is a teacher but having just recovered from cancer she's immune compromised so has taken sick leave and is self isolating. If/when the sick leave runs out she is resigning. While enough teachers are still standing it appears the authorities will keep the schools open.

Teachers are therefore being treated as sacrificial to keep the kids, who's parents are in vital service employment (trucks, nurses, grocers, doctors, food producers), at school. I don't like it but when I though about this it's not too far removed from some decisions made even when there is no pandemic eg ramping of ambos at hospital emergency facilities. Perhaps teachers could think of the risks being taken by medical staff on the front line of this problem?

[BobL]

Not sure of details. My understanding is the goods are flowing reasonably within EU but people are fairly restricted. Bob's Italian cousins might be able to confirm.


Apparently the primary vehicles on roads are trucks and essential goods (food) are flowing reasonably well within Italy, less so between countries. With most other vehicles off the road deliveries are being made in record time with lower stress and fuel costs. Fortunately Italy grows most of its own food. Time everyone went of a diet anyway :)

[BobL]

something one of my relatives sent me - I left out the "churchy" bit at the bottom.

470093

[ian]

It wouldn't be a complete break as my understanding is, on average, the number of new students that come direct from school only represent about half of the intake (it differs markedly for each course). The other half would be overseas students, and deferring and mature age entries.given the current travel restrictions on overseas students, if they're not currently in country they probably won't be able to enter at all this year.

I know that UTas is particularly exposed to the revenue lost if overseas students are not enrolling in current numbers.



I've been following the pros and cons about closing down schools. I don't buy the herd immunity concept but there is some research that suggests that unlike the flu kids are not cross infecting each other as rapidly as first thought. What is more likely is infected kids infecting adults so eventually schools will have to close when too many teachers get infected. While enough teachers are still standing it appears the authorities will keep the schools open. Teachers are therefore being treated as sacrificial to keep the kids, who's parents are in vital service employment (trucks, nurses, grocers, doctors, food producers), at school. I don't like it but when I thought about this it's not too far removed from some decisions that are made even when there is no pandemic eg ramping of ambos at hospital emergency facilities. Perhaps teachers could think of the risks being taken by medical staff on the front line of this problem?I also struggle with the "herd immunity" concept. As far as I can tell the concept is based on allowing "just enough" people to die that the remainder build up a sort of herd immunity, which could be expected to suffice till there's an effective vaccine.

In the current context and using numbers from the UK 200,000 ("only" 40% of the projected no intervention's 510,000 deaths in the UK) are allowed to die so the herd builds up immunity till a suitable vaccine is available. Assuming that the first vaccine is just good enough to reduce the death rate by 30%, a person might require 2 or perhaps 3 jabs as the vaccine's effectiveness improves to something akin to the current flu and pneumonia vaccine.


Perhaps, we need to think of the current pandemic as being akin to being in a war zone that covers the entire country.
At some stage everyone will be exposed to the virus. If the disease's progression can be slowed there's a very good chance of minimising total deaths.
But to slow the virus's progression, current suppression methods might need to be in-force till the end of the flu season in late October.


Not a pleasant prospect for a person currently in Canada.

[ian]

"but when the logistics supply chain for essentials relies entirely on the person driving the delivery truck"

Where's Elon Musk when you need him? Surely a few hundred of those autonomous trucks he's been spruiking should make a big dent in the problem?
at this time of the year, the lane and edge markings have been scrapped off Canadian roads by the snow clearing operations.
Elon Musk's "autonomous trucks" is mostly marketing hype. They can operate sort of OK on a fully grade separated highway that has clearly visible lane markings, and there are some roads in the south west of the US that are suitable. But in the Australian context, only about 20% of the Hume Highway is suitable for their operation, and even less of the Pacific Highway is suitable.
And you don't want to know the cost of upgrading the Hume to allow fully autonomous trucks to operate.

[BobL]

Here are some Regional Italian stats from a major Italian Newspaper.

Ricoverati con sintomi - recovered showing only symptoms (mild case)
Terapia Intensiva - undergoing/gone intensive therapy
Isolement dom - domestic isolation
Totale etc = total positive cases
Dimessi/Guariti = discharged from hospital recovered
Diceduti - deceased
Casi Total = total cases
Tamponi - total numbers tested
470094
What you can see is (like China) that most of the cases and deaths are occurring in about 4 regions (with about the same population as Australia) the other regions have lower numbers because they are still behind the curve and are probably better protected because they went into lockdown before their numbers got too high.

The death rate as a percentage of cases in the main infected region ( Lombardia) is >10% probably because of lack of ventilators and staff.
In Veneto (mums rellies) where they have enough ventilators and staff the death rate is 2.7%
In Trento (Dads rellies) where they don't have any big cities, only a few large towns and lots of little isolated villages. They have excellent health facilities and the people are in some ways more germanic than italian so are less likely to cut corners, has a death rate of 1.8%

[Tccp123]

at this time of the year, the lane and edge markings have been scrapped off Canadian roads by the snow clearing operations.
Elon Musk's "autonomous trucks" is mostly marketing hype. They can operate sort of OK on a fully grade separated highway that has clearly visible lane markings, and there are some roads in the south west of the US that are suitable. But in the Australian context, only about 20% of the Hume Highway is suitable for their operation, and even less of the Pacific Highway is suitable.
And you don't want to know the cost of upgrading the Hume to allow fully autonomous trucks to operate.

The comment was intended to be tongue in cheek while having a little bit of a dig at the whole idea of autonomous vehicles (at least for the foreseeable future) and AI in general.

[ian]

The comment was intended to be tongue in cheek while having a little bit of a dig at the whole idea of autonomous vehicles (at least for the foreseeable future) and AI in general.
I wasn't sure.

However, I'm not a believer let alone a convert when it comes to autonomous vehicles.
To my mind, the road system is just too complex an environment to allow for automated vehicle operation.
And requiring a live person to "monitor" the operation of the autonomous vehicle is beyond a joke. NASA has done experiments that clearly demonstrate that even when highly trained people are required to "monitor" the operation of a vehicle they just can't. Their reaction time climbs into the 10s of seconds, if not minutes, primarily because their attention wonders onto other things. Even a thing as seemingly innocuous as cruise control leads to a person's attention span blowing out.

[ian]

CBC news for Alberta March 17 at 18:00 MDT
Parks Canada closes all visitor centres across Canada Parks Canada closes all visitor services across the country to limit COVID-19 spread | CBC News (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/parks-canada-closures-covid-19-1.5500817)
Alberta's Premier declares public health emergency '''This is a serious moment in our history''': Alberta Premier Jason Kenney declares public health emergency | CBC News (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/this-is-a-serious-moment-in-our-history-alberta-premier-jason-kenney-declares-public-health-emergency-1.5500562)
International travelers ordered to self isolate Calgary says it'''s no longer a suggestion for international travellers to self-isolate — it'''s an order | CBC News (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-covid19-update-1.5500918)

[woodPixel]

"but when the logistics supply chain for essentials relies entirely on the person driving the delivery truck"

Where's Elon Musk when you need him? Surely a few hundred of those autonomous trucks he's been spruiking should make a big dent in the problem?


Hahahha! This is EXACTLY what I was going to write!

In the OTHER thread, on climate change (that thread was the biggest until this), is that auto-cars and auto-trucks would be an excellent advantage to have now.

I can almost guarantee that the trucking companies are ramping up their automation efforts.

I'm reminded of a book I read a looooong time ago, by Bill Bryson, in which he discussed as part of his style of rambling narrative, about how the plague locked Isaac Newton indoors for quite a period. In this period he had time to reflect (haha) on many of the attribute of existence and supposedly came up with calculus, the anatomy of light and a few other interesting things.

So good can come of bad. Ill see if I can find that. There is reference to it here: Isaac Newton - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Newton#Early_life)

[RossM]

I wasn't sure.

However, I'm not a believer let alone a convert when it comes to autonomous vehicles.
To my mind, the road system is just too complex an environment to allow for automated vehicle operation.
And requiring a live person to "monitor" the operation of the autonomous vehicle is beyond a joke. NASA has done experiments that clearly demonstrate that even when highly trained people are required to "monitor" the operation of a vehicle they just can't. Their reaction time climbs into the 10s of seconds, if not minutes, primarily because their attention wonders onto other things. Even a thing as seemingly innocuous as cruise control leads to a person's attention span blowing out.

Hi Ian, You may want to qualify that belief system. Fully autonomous vehicles have already been utilised within the mining, farming, construction and warehouse sectors and shown drastic improvements in the productivity, worker safety and economy of these industries. Mining in particular continues to make multi-billion dollar investments in this tech. And if you get the chance, get a tour of some modern logistics operations. No forklift drivers or yard vehicle drivers in sight.

I agree that the use case for consumer level autonomous diving is overhyped. The main issue however won't be so much the technology, but legislative environment.

I suspect that the first use cases we will see will be "trackless trains" where certain highway corridors would be cordoned from general traffic, allowing platooned trucks to make long-haul deliveries.

[Tccp123]

Hi Ian, You may want to qualify that belief system. Fully autonomous vehicles have already been utilised within the mining, farming, construction and warehouse sectors and shown drastic improvements in the productivity, worker safety and economy of these industries. Mining in particular continues to make multi-billion dollar investments in this tech. And if you get the chance, get a tour of some modern logistics operations. No forklift drivers or yard vehicle drivers in sight.

I agree that the use case for consumer level autonomous diving is overhyped. The main issue however won't be so much the technology, but legislative environment.

I suspect that the first use cases we will see will be "trackless trains" where certain highway corridors would be cordoned from general traffic, allowing platooned trucks to make long-haul deliveries.

Just a qualification of this (and without wanting to hijack this thread) just thought it worth mentioning the BHP autonomous train that had to be deliberately derailed almost exactly a year ago in the Pilbara after having travelled 91km without a driver. At a cost of $55m per day till the track was repaired one can only speculate how far that set autonomous trains back in their development...and that was only going from point A to point B!

[RossM]

I wasn't sure.

However, I'm not a believer let alone a convert when it comes to autonomous vehicles.
To my mind, the road system is just too complex an environment to allow for automated vehicle operation.
And requiring a live person to "monitor" the operation of the autonomous vehicle is beyond a joke. NASA has done experiments that clearly demonstrate that even when highly trained people are required to "monitor" the operation of a vehicle they just can't. Their reaction time climbs into the 10s of seconds, if not minutes, primarily because their attention wonders onto other things. Even a thing as seemingly innocuous as cruise control leads to a person's attention span blowing out.

Hi Ian, You may want to qualify that belief system. Fully autonomous vehicles have already been utilised within the mining, farming, construction and warehouse sectors and shown drastic improvements in the productivity, worker safety and economy of these industries. Mining in particular continues to make multi-billion dollar investments in this tech. And if you get the chance, get a tour of some modern logistics operations. No forklift drivers or yard vehicle drivers in sight.

I agree that the use case for consumer level autonomous diving is overhyped. The main issue however won't be so much the technology, but legislative environment.

I suspect that the first use cases we will see will be "trackless trains" where certain highway corridors would be cordoned from general traffic, allowing platooned trucks to make long-haul deliveries.

[GraemeCook]

Not it is not, its not a strain of influenza.


Not quite accurate.

I got a reply from my friend, the specialist in public health, sent at 3.30 am this morning - "... so much going on that I can't sleep so I may as well answer your email..." and then essentially gave me a lecture. Summarising:

You should never refer to the rogue virus as coronavirus; it is COVID-19.

Coronavirus is a massive family of closely and not so closely related viruses that are constantly mutating.

By analogy with the animal kingdom: lions and tigers are both members of the cat family, neither are dogs, and there are several sub-species of tigers. All can interbreed including lions with tigers and other large cats but commonly do not because of geographical or preference factors. Corona viruses are less well studied than cats, and probably more complex. The constant mutations are a real challenge to researchers and pose the limitting factor with flu vaccines and treatments.

COVID-19 is a type of coronavirus.
SARS is a type of coronavirus.
MERS is a type of coronavirus.
Influenza is a series of types of coronavirus.

So simple, so complex.

[FenceFurniture]

An absurd situation at ALDI this morning. They have decided to open at 9.30 instead of 8.30 to allow staff extra time to stock the shelves. Last night they sent out an email to those who have set previous "product availability" reminders. (also advising that you could no longer return bumroll because you were an idiot and purchased 100 packets).

At the time of reading the email I thought "good idea, and fair enough" because retail staff would have been copping heaps in the last weeks.

So this morning I showed up at 9.30 because I wanted to panic buy a $100 coffee grinder (which is pretty good BTW). There were two queues outside the two ways in to the store (which meet at the main entrance, and there would have been about 200 people - which will soon be illegal...).

The main point here is that NONE of these people were practising social distancing, and were all within 30-50cm of the next person ahead of them. I was the only person to stand on the other side of the 1.5m wide ramp (3 ramps each at least 20m long). That gave me a triangular distance of about 1-1.2m from the people before and after me. Those people respected my wishes as the queue slowly inserted itself into the store at 9.30.

But what about the people at the head of the queue? They must have been there for at least 20 minutes I'd say...with dickheads right on top of them. :doh:


I quickly grabbed the grinder and headed for the checkout. The woman behind me wasn't just close....she was brushing against me in her rush to place 4 small items on the rolling counter (I was just holding the grinder box to avoid contact with anything). I turned around and gestured for her to keep back a bit (just held my hands up slightly) and she objected! Decided she should feign a cough for my benefit. I said "That's why" and apparently it was only because I was "carrying on" (by a slight gesture with my hands). W.T.F. is the matter with people? :(( I said to this idiot "I am only trying to do what the health authorities have told us to do".

The manager was standing there on my way out so I said that whilst I understood their need for more hours to restock, the queue that was the result was a disaster, and that the needed security guards to keep people apart in the queue. He said "We've got one there." Yes, standing at the door doing NOTHING. They need one on each ramp for about 20-30 minutes before opening, or at least a staff member (probably sufficient) to ensure people stay apart.

I'd be pretty sure the whole opening an hour later at 9.30 has only increased the panic. It must be bedlam in the big(ger) smoke.

[FenceFurniture]

Just a qualification of this (and without wanting to hijack this thread) just thought it worth mentioning the BHP autonomous train that had to be deliberately derailed almost exactly a year ago in the Pilbara after having travelled 91km without a driver. At a cost of $55m per day till the track was repaired one can only speculate how far that set autonomous trains back in their development...and that was only going from point A to point B!And IIRC it was a human error in the first place that let the train go out of control....

[GraemeCook]

.....
I also struggle with the "herd immunity" concept. As far as I can tell the concept is based on allowing "just enough" people to die that the remainder build up a sort of herd immunity, which could be expected to suffice till there's an effective vaccine.
....

Me, too.

But can you switch off the "death switch" when "just enough" people have died? And how does one set or calculate "just enough"? Or is the herd immunity concept a justification for doing nothing?

If you look at Hatchetts graph in my post #295 above, could you argue that Philladelphia followed the herd immunity concept and that St Louis followed the concept of vigorous early intervention and social separation?

[Tccp123]

And IIRC it was a human error in the first place that let the train go out of control....

Official response:

"The driver, Peter Frick, was sacked but has since reached a settlement with the company after taking his case to the Fair Work Commission. (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/12/driver-of-runaway-train-files-unfair-dismissal-claim-against-bhp)
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An internal investigation by BHP (https://www.theguardian.com/business/bhpbilliton) found the incident was the result of “procedural non-compliance by the operator” and “integration issues with the electronically controlled pneumatic braking system”.
“Even if the track support team had have attended the correct train and applied manual brakes, it would not have been enough to stop the roll-away event,” a BHP spokeswoman said in a statement.

[ian]

Hi Ian, You may want to qualify that belief system. Fully autonomous vehicles have already been utilised within the mining, farming, construction and warehouse sectors and shown drastic improvements in the productivity, worker safety and economy of these industries. Mining in particular continues to make multi-billion dollar investments in this tech. And if you get the chance, get a tour of some modern logistics operations. No forklift drivers or yard vehicle drivers in sight.

I agree that the use case for consumer level autonomous diving is overhyped. The main issue however won't be so much the technology, but legislative environment.

I suspect that the first use cases we will see will be "trackless trains" where certain highway corridors would be cordoned from general traffic, allowing platooned trucks to make long-haul deliveries.mining and warehousing are all very very controlled environments where automated vehicles can excel.
farming is a less controlled environment, but vehicle speeds are low and pedestrians almost completely absent.

but "trackless trains" still require adequate lane markings or some sort of in pavement sensor.


where I remain highly skeptical is being convinced that there any legislative environment can accommodate the behaviour of pedestrians and cyclists urban environment or not.
Unless an automated vehicle is given carte blanche to run over all pedestrians and cyclists in their path, I can't see how there can be a legislative fix. If I know that the approaching vehicle is programmed to stop or swerve to avoid a collision if I step in front of it -- what's to stop me doing exactly that?
Short of fencing every street and gating every pedestrian crossing I remain to be convinced.

[Bushmiller]

Irrespective of whether automated vehicles are a possibility, and they clearly are in some restricted environments, it is a little fanciful that they will become a reality on a our roads during the likely currency of the Covid-19 virus.

Regards
Paul

[FenceFurniture]

Official response:

"The driver, Peter Frick, was sacked but has since reached a settlement with the company after taking his case to the Fair Work Commission. (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/12/driver-of-runaway-train-files-unfair-dismissal-claim-against-bhp)
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An internal investigation by BHP (https://www.theguardian.com/business/bhpbilliton) found the incident was the result of “procedural non-compliance by the operator” and “integration issues with the electronically controlled pneumatic braking system”.
“Even if the track support team had have attended the correct train and applied manual brakes, it would not have been enough to stop the roll-away event,” a BHP spokeswoman said in a statement.Does that all mean it was totally non-human error (it's a bit of a vague response on their part)? My memory of it is not detailed, but I seem to recall that it was avoidable and that poor decisions were taken, and much too late. Maybe not - like I say "If I Recall Correctly". Wasn't it something along the lines of "ok, the auto system has failed" and then preventative action (derailing) was substantially delayed and the train got too much speed up which created much more damage than it otherwise would have. I have some memory of a guy running alongside that train but then he couldn't keep up. (maybe I'm confusing it with "Runaway" :D)

[GraemeCook]

An absurd situation at ALDI this morning. They have decided to open at 9.30 instead of 8.30 to allow staff extra time to stock the shelves. Last night they sent out an email to those who have set previous "product availability" reminders. .....


Woollies here did the reverse.

They openned an hour early for "centrelink concession card holders" and got the same massive crowd. Their shelf stackers arrived at the same time and were valiently trying to restock shelves depleted the previous day. Chaos.

Fortuitously, I chose to stay in bed.

Why couldn't Aldi and Woollies rostered their shelf stackers on early ?

[Tccp123]

Does that all mean it was totally non-human error (it's a bit of a vague response on their part)? My memory of it is not detailed, but I seem to recall that it was avoidable and that poor decisions were taken, and much too late. Maybe not - like I say "If I Recall Correctly". Wasn't it something along the lines of "ok, the auto system has failed" and then preventative action (derailing) was substantially delayed and the train got too much speed up which created much more damage than it otherwise would have. I have some memory of a guy running alongside that train but then he couldn't keep up. (maybe I'm confusing it with "Runaway" :D)

Let's be honest, we'll never know. I doubt that BHP would say anything that would discredit the autonomous train idea and I doubt that the driver would readily make submissions that would implicate himself. But the cause is irrelevant I think and I only quoted it to show that the technology is far from a fait accompli. If it (a system costing billions of $$$ and capable of causing millions of $$$ damage when it goes wrong) can be derailed (pun intended) by something as simple as the driver not applying the emergency brake (which seems to be the implication) then it's got a long way to go.

[Bushmiller]

My most immediate concern of Covid-19, which I will refer to by that designation to avoid any confusion as to which disease group it belongs, is what is going to be done to stem the spread and how we ourselves identify that we may have contracted the disease.

Firstly, I don't believe we can stop Covid-19 as it is going to run it's course until such time as a vaccine is produced or another form of control is found (injection of antibodies from resistant persons or those recovered from an attack?). The issue is to spread the rate of infected cases over time so the system is not overloaded and people are unable to get treatment: That would result in an escalation of the disease and it would replicate the experiences of some other countries already (China, Iran, South Korea, Italy, Spain, France etc).

This was brought home, literally, this morning when SWMBO announced she had a sore throat. I also have had an annoying tickle type cough too, but it is so intermittent that I have dismissed it as dust (happens maybe three to four times in a twelve hour period and is no longer happening at all). Of course with our heightened awareness our thought immediately races to whether we might have contracted Covid-19. It is unlikely as we have not been exposed to high risk groups (travellers or known infected people). Having said that SWMBO is in the age related high risk category, although she is generally well and a lot more active than the vast majority of fifty year olds and I suppose I am not too far behind in the age aspect. However, hypochondria kicks straight in with a vengeance. :rolleyes:

This led me to try to find some more definitive information including detail on the myths that abound. I have previously mentioned Covid-19 displays some factors that have not been commonly seen in other coronavirus outbreaks and in themselves are more worrying as we don't absolutely know their implications. This has the potential to promote more fear again.

When I went searching for information several aspects were foremost in my mind. The infectious period, the symptoms or lack of them, the requirements for self isolation as in how isolated we should make ourselves and in particular whether Covid-19 is affected by heat. I turned up a report by a UK fact check organisation that had responded to a post which went viral. The post made ten claims. The Fact Check org said some were accurate and some were inaccurate. They are outlined below with the claim on the left in italics and the evaluation on the right:

470095
470096
470097
470098

The full report and detail of modification on the original post are in this link:

Viral post about someone’s uncle’s coronavirus advice is not all it’s cracked up to be - Full Fact (https://fullfact.org/online/coronavirus-claims-symptoms-viral/)

We should not take this information as absolute, as the truth is that nobody quite knows, including experts in the field. However it may be that this virus is able to survive in elevated temperatures. We will know more about this as the Northern hemisphere approaches summer and we in the South approach winter.

Just as an aside SWMBO headed off to her book club meeting today where she may be one of the younger members. Ater phoning the hospital first for advice. She has taken a P2 mask with her. Last night we were with a group of eleven people where I was the youngest, SWMBO was the second youngest one person was celebrating her 82nd birthday and another couple were celebrating their 60th wedding anniversary! Physical contact was avoided, but still I wonder whether we should do this any more for the immediate future. (That is the meetings rather than the physical contact :wink: .

Our daughter said her entire workforce is now operating from home.

It does bring home both the difficulty and the reality of going about everyday life. It is going to be different for a while.

Regards
Paul

[FenceFurniture]

I also have had an annoying tickle type cough too, but it is so intermittent that I have dismissed it as dust (happens maybe three to four times in a twelve hour period and is no longer happening at all). Of course with our heightened awareness our thought immediately races to whether we might have contracted Covid-19. It is unlikely as we have not been exposed to high risk groups (travellers or known infected people). .... hypochondria kicks straight in with a vengeance. :rolleyes:.Hmmm. :think: Yesterday I read this entire thread for the first time. I had...not so much a headache...but a tightness across the forehead. This morning when I was catching up on new posts I had a very slight roughness of the throat.

On both occasions the symptoms cleared up upon ceasing reading this thread. :D

[Boringgeoff]

In relation to the BHP train derailment. It was NOT an autonomous train. Prior to the driver alighting to rectify a problem he applied the emergency brake,but what he didn't realise was the brake would release after a set time. IIRC the enquiry found that no railway operators anywhere in Australia, using this particular technology, were aware of the self releasing feature at that time.
Cheers,
Geoff.

[Lappa]

If the human body temp is approx 37oC, how someone came up with the statement that temps of 26/27oC will kill the virus is beyond me.

[Lappa]

. Perhaps teachers could think of the risks being taken by medical staff on the front line of this problem?
If I wanted to look after the sick and infirm and expose my self to whatever, I would have become a doctor or a nurse. They chose that profession, I didn’t. Besides that, pictures show them all dressed in protective suits and masks.
Our management and the Govt keep stressing the importance of the social distance but expect us to work within that distance.
i sent a student home today because he came in sniffing with a runny nose.

[FenceFurniture]

Working From Home.

I suspect that this will become quite a lot more permanent than it has been in the past. The current situation is clearly going to force it into place. Employers are likely to see that productivity actually increases, along with job satisfaction, when people are working from home for perhaps 3 days per week (I'm talking about after all the shenanigans quietens down). Employees are likely to see that they are far less stressed (no travelling a few days a week is just the start) and are probably able to achieve more in less actual time on the job.

Furthermore, and a longer term benefit, employers will suddenly realise that they don't need to devote as much resource to desks and other workplace requirements.


:ranton: (sorry, slightly OT, but related to above)

Back 7 or 8 years ago, when all the NBN argy bargy was going on, I was an advocate for basically spending what it would take to put in the very best system available with the current and about-to-mature technology. Fibre to the premises absolutely everywhere that it was reasonably feasible. I was asked a couple of times "why?" and my answer was "because of all the stuff that we haven't thought of or invented yet that a stupendous NBN would be able to handle - the very best tech available now is already out of date by the time you get home."

Stuff we haven't thought of yet? Well, enforced working from home due to a pandemic would be just one of those things. One should never EVER put in a system that will used at full capacity - there's no wriggle room. (yes I know that NBN have said the system will handle it....but so far that's just talk from a bunch of self-servers)

What's the bet that within (say) 5-8 years we have to spend an absolute fortune (like the same amount again) on upgrading the NBN? AFAIK the NBN spend was roughly the same as the money spent on keeping the country going during the GFC (wasn't the deficit about $40Bills?). And now just 12 years later we're (Bomp. Bada-bomp, bada-bomp) Back In Black. And in our 29th, and last, year of uninterrupted growth.

NO! Back In Balance! (a really crap name for a song).

Oh wait......maybe not that either......

Back in Stimulus! Now we're rockin! What a great title.

Thanks a lot Fizza. Your sell-out to the unthinking short-sighted self-serving members is likely to cost a helluva lot more than the original plan.
:rantoff:

[BobL]

If I wanted to look after the sick and infirm and expose my self to whatever, I would have become a doctor or a nurse. They chose that profession, I didn’t.

Ordinarily yes, but some might well say (not me) that these are not ordinary times, this is war. How are teachers for example different from a check out operator at a pharmacy or even a grocery store for that matter ?


Besides that, pictures show them all dressed in protective suits and masks.

Not all - only the ones dealing with COVID19 infectees are suited up. Many more nurses and doctors and other staff in hospitals, clinics and surgeries still have to treat other patients for other things. These patients would have about the same risk (maybe more) than students.

[FenceFurniture]

If I wanted to look after the sick and infirm and expose myself to whatever, I would have become a doctor or a nurse. They chose that profession, I didn’t.You don't think that's a bit harsh or acerbic? You'll probably choose to see one if you cop the virus, and no doubt be grateful to them for exposing themselves to your symptoms/illness. They didn't know this was coming either. It is not necessarily what they signed up for, but they will carry on caring for the sick.

Not forgetting too, that virtually ALL of the people that medical staff see will be infected, or think they might be. Teachers, OTOH, may or may not be exposed to a (probably much smaller) percentage of infected individuals, and apparently with the power to be able to send them home.



Besides that, pictures show them all dressed in protective suits and masks.Ok, so because you've seen a picture(s) of this, that makes all of them completely safe? Like the now-dead Wuhan doctor who raised the initial alarm? (amongst gawd knows how many other medical professionals who will perish or suffer). Broad brush statements like that are "courageous". Or perhaps not fully thought through.

Have a thought for the medical staff in China who have had nervous breakdowns because they knew the situation was hopeless and lives would be lost (at that time, a few weeks ago). They will have PTSD - a life sentence - as a result. The memories of the dead people stacked up in corridors that they could have saved if the resources were available will haunt them forever.



And just btw - BobL was a teacher too. The comment doesn't have to be taken so personally, and I doubt very much that it was directed at you.

[Chesand]

If I wanted to look after the sick and infirm and expose my self to whatever, I would have become a doctor or a nurse. They chose that profession, I didn’t. Besides that, pictures show them all dressed in protective suits and masks.

There are two nurses in my family and they chose that profession because that was what they wanted and both are damn good in their fields.
I also have a daughter in the Public Service working her butt off helping set up guidelines for aged care. She worked until 9 on Sunday night.
I hope you don't need their help but remember they are there for everyone - even those who don't appreciate them or their skills

[FenceFurniture]

Hear bloody hear Tom!

[Lappa]

Ordinarily yes, but some might well say (not me) that these are not ordinary times, this is war. How are teachers for example different from a check out operator at a pharmacy or even a grocery store for that matter ?

Sure, these are not ordinary times
The difference to me is the call for social isolation and not sharing. People have a choice to keep that 1.2m distance and I have noticed it happening in places such as my pharmacy, which it one you mentioned.
I, unfortunately, don’t have that luxury and neither do my students who have to share equipment and work in groups. This happens but I see management cancelling meetings, parliament running on a skeleton staff of MPs to “keep the distance”.
i care about myself and my family, my fellow teachers and my students.

[woodPixel]

Lappa is right.

The public servants abandon posts at a mere sniffle. Whole departments here are now working from home. Every other business has a choice to be online....

But teachers are being forced to work?

The probability they will catch this from the kids will be 100%.

[BobL]

Few interesting graphs from Coronavirus data reveals how COVID-19 is spreading in Australia - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-data-reveals-how-covid-19-is-spreading-in-australia/12060704)
I'll let you draw your own conclusions.

Known destinations of COVID19 cases in Australia.
470124

470125



Looks like good case to lockdown at least NSW or at least Sydney?
470126

[Lappa]

S
There are two nurses in my family and they chose that profession because that was what they wanted and both are damn good in their fields.
I also have a daughter in the Public Service working her butt off helping set up guidelines for aged care. She worked until 9 on Sunday night.
I hope you don't need their help but remember they are there for everyone - even those who don't appreciate them or their skills

I never said I don’t appreciate their skills and caring. I had two major surgeries last year and the doctors and nurses where brilliant. All I said is I didn’t choose to be one. Is that a crime?

My problem is the inference from BobL that everyone is sharing the same risks which is not true. Doctors and nurses have the training and the equipment to work within this environment.
Other people can go all day with a 1.2m isolation zone, some can sit in the home all day and some ha e no choice but to work within a zone everyone says you shouldn’t
If I had a choice, I would still work and use an isolation zone, as recommended, but I can’t and neither can my students and neither can those other people forced into the same situation Does that make the risk for those who can’t work with an isolation zone the same as those who can or have the equipment to minimise risk?

[FenceFurniture]

Lappa is right.

The public servants abandon posts at a mere sniffle. Whole departments here are now working from home. Every other business has a choice to be online....

But teachers are being forced to work?

The probability they will catch this from the kids will be 100%.Hard to see how it is any different to Supermarket etc staff or anybody else that has to deal with the general public.

Consider the following: there are two cars in the workshop for repair, and they both need the same part, of which there is only one available, so one customer has to miss out (for a day or ten anyway, until another one comes in). One car belongs to a local mobile Nurse. The other belongs to the proprietor's sibling.

OTOH, a Triage Nurse in a smallish country town has one ventilator available, and has two people at death's door in front of her. One of them is her 75 year old mother. The other is some kid/young adult she doesn't know. She is under instruction to save the most likely to survive....even though another ventilator will arrive in the next day or ten.

Which professional has the easier choice? Which one will be mentally tortured?

[BobL]

S

I never said I don’t appreciate their skills and caring. I had two major surgeries last year and the doctors and nurses where brilliant. All I said is I didn’t choose to be one. Is that a crime?

My problem is the inference from BobL that everyone is sharing the same risks which is not true. Doctors and nurses have the training and the equipment to work within this environment.

I think you are comparing with wrong occupations, maybe compare yourself to people that have bout the same risk as you.

Playing devils advocate here, but checkout assistants, the receptionists at GPs, Physiotherapists, bartender, waiter, fast food server, bus drivers, conductors, etc are in the same - maybe worse boat than you are.

I know that the authorities are against making your own hand sanitiser but its actually very easy.
Here is a WHO approved method WHO-recommended handrub formulations - WHO Guidelines on Hand Hygiene in Health Care - NCBI Bookshelf (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK144054/)
Maybe run a class on making it and applying it to themselves with the students. Then get the students to lather their hands and the tool handles with it at the beginning and end of every class. Allocate students to wipe down key machine pieces/switches/handles with cloth impregnated with the sanitiser.

[doug3030]

https://scontent.fmel8-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/89964592_10158241503124138_5817003203467673600_n.jpg?_nc_cat=109&_nc_sid=ca434c&_nc_ohc=x5eQTQz9BOYAX-KF0BD&_nc_ht=scontent.fmel8-1.fna&oh=d9f68fe7d3410d8c5ca27d0c2c8ff26b&oe=5E95E290

[rwbuild]

You also forgot to mention that they are political experts, finance experts, etc........:D

[FenceFurniture]

All I said is I didn’t choose to be one. Is that a crime?No, that is not quite what you said.


If I wanted to look after the sick and infirm and expose my self to whatever, I would have become a doctor or a nurse. They chose that profession, I didn’t. Besides that, pictures show them all dressed in protective suits and masks.The inference was that it was their bad luck that they are in the front line of a pandemic because of their chosen career.



i sent a student home today because he came in sniffing with a runny nose.Well, lucky for you. Reckon a med pro would love to have that option eh?

[Lappa]

I think you are comparing with wrong occupations, maybe compare yourself to people that have bout the same risk as you.

Playing devils advocate here, but checkout assistants, the receptionists at GPs, Physiotherapists, bartender, waiter, fast food server, bus drivers, conductors, etc are in the same - maybe worse boat than you are.


Maybe you should have read further and quoteD what I said further down,

“If I had a choice, I would still work and use an isolation zone, as recommended, but I can’t and neither can my students and neither can those other people forced into the same situation Does that make the risk for those who can’t work with an isolation zone the same as those who can or have the equipment to minimise risk?”

You can clearly see that I never said it was only about teachers.

Disposable gloves and hand sanitiser have been ordered. It will be interesting to see how long it takes as the Govt, in their wisdom, closed QStores so everything comes from a common source that many use and supplies are low and limited.
I can’t force the students to bring their own.
The Govt is big on words and monetary handouts and useless when it comes to practical solutions.

[poundy]

I think Lappa's comments are somewhat taken to the extreme.

I think the government(s) all have a lot to answer for about their (lack of) response. If they were more harsh with the guidelines, and were more direct to industry, then there would be more sensible ways for employers to be able to say that a particular situation (eg classroom, office, particular client interactions) do or don't meet the minimum safe guidelines we've been given, and they would then not expose the employees and clients to unsafe situations. Many schools/unis are already doing the "don't come to campus" thing, and that's awesome, but if there were clear directions those places that hadn't yet moved to this level of response there would be no question about how they would do that.

But also there's nothing stopping institutions and organisations to be already readying their response to this and accelerating the transition. I suspect that Lappa's school are already trying to deal with this. My company, and those of many of my friends I've spoken to, have all said that their employers have said if they're not comfortable doing something then they should put themselves first and not attend - that could be as simple as calling a client instead of visiting (if they're even taking meetings as part of their own response) or as significant as not travelling to the office. Clearly this doesn't work for people who are "front line" in their business - can you imagine the discussions at Carbatec and H&F, let alone at even higher throughput places like supermarkets, where the exposure isn't as long but the numbers of contacts would be very high.

I think Nonna says it all (https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1044082585968048) :)

It's somewhat ridiculous to ban gatherings of (now) 100 people but allow metal sausages full of people to travel over the train lines in the city, with a few hundred different people each trip, meaning you're sitting with not just the 249 other people in your carriage, but the 3x other people they've been close to, and the 20x other people they've been around-but-not-close-to, and then you get to do that all again on the way home. (or if you were like my wife had, you had that 6x per day with 3 different rail segments per direction and somewhere between 3 and 4 hours in all that) So it's easy to see why any reduction in travel has to be beneficial.

[Lappa]

No, that is not quite what you said.

The inference was that it was their bad luck that they are in the front line of a pandemic because of their chosen career.


Well, lucky for you. Reckon a med pro would love to have that option eh?

vitriolic as usual and reading into it words that were never said or implied.

Just following the Govt directive re the student.

[BobL]

Maybe turn up dressed like this?
Scomo would have to at least make it tax deductible in the current climate?
470133

[Tccp123]

I don't like to be critical of other people's approach to their own situation in this crisis because I'm in the fortunate position of being retired, and so am able to practice 'social distancing' or even 'self isolation' (or whatever it's called) with little effort (I can just close the door to my workshop). But I gather that some of you others must in the firing line judging by recent comments about Lappa's position.

Am I right?

[Sturdee]

I know that the authorities are against making your own hand sanitiser but its actually very easy.


Bob, as I don't have those ingredients but have about 6 bottles of aged scotch can I diluted them as a hand sanitizer.

If so what ratio would you recommend.

Peter.

[BobL]

Bob, as I don't have those ingredients but have about 6 bottles of aged scotch can I diluted them as a hand sanitizer.

If so what ratio would you recommend.

Peter.

Scotch is too dilute, the sanitiser has to be made from close to 100% pure alcohol to which Hydrogen peroxide and Glycerol are added.

Heres a link with full instructions
https://www.who.int/gpsc/5may/Guide_to_Local_Production.pdf

[Bushmiller]

Bob, as I don't have those ingredients but have about 6 bottles of aged scotch can I diluted them as a hand sanitizer.

If so what ratio would you recommend.

Peter.

Ooooh, Peter.

I am not whiskey drinker, but I can imagine that such words, as.....dilute.... and ...sanitizer, will have the Celtic SAS from North of Hadrian's Wall heading for Oz as we speak. Of course they won't arrive by aeroplane as there is an embargo on overseas visitors. I am leaning towards illegal boat people. Keep a low profile (lying on your back can assist with this).

Regards
Paul

PS: I trust your health issues are holding up. I can see that you would be in a higher risk category than most.

[woodPixel]

Bob, as I don't have those ingredients but have about 6 bottles of aged scotch can I diluted them as a hand sanitizer.

If so what ratio would you recommend.

Peter.


0.05% nightly.

Start at midday, apply every 40 minutes until bed time.

[woodPixel]

I don't like to be critical of other people's approach to their own situation in this crisis because I'm in the fortunate position of being retired, and so am able to practice 'social distancing' or even 'self isolation' (or whatever it's called) with little effort (I can just close the door to my workshop). But I gather that some of you others must in the firing line judging by recent comments about Lappa's position.

Am I right?


Mandatory XKCD

470139

[BobL]

In the 6+ weeks I’ve been on crutches and in a moon boot I’ve lost 5kg. Apart from wielding the crutches have done zero exercise. I was hoping to claim the shot of grappa with my morning espresso as the curative but I’m now tilting towards simple loss of muscle mass and SWMBO being in charge of portion size!

[Sturdee]

PS: I trust your health issues are holding up. I can see that you would be in a higher risk category than most.

I'm doing okay as I've been practicing social distancing for a while, however this last week I've had to have more social contact as my wife sprained an ankle ligament and couldn't do any shopping.

This happened on the same day as our wedding anniversary and me hearing that the liver cancer procedures were successful.

Peter.

[Sturdee]

0.05% nightly.

Start at midday, apply every 40 minutes until bed time.

They were given to me as Christmas presents in the 70's, never liked it that much and now drinking any alcohol is out of the question as it would make the cirrhosis on my liver worse.

Peter.

[woodPixel]

They were given to me as Christmas presents in the 70's, never liked it that much and now drinking any alcohol is out of the question as it would make the cirrhosis on my liver worse.

Swap them on Gumtree for some toilet paper :)

Bummer about the liver. Tricky things they can be.

[ian]

Few interesting graphs from Coronavirus data reveals how COVID-19 is spreading in Australia - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-data-reveals-how-covid-19-is-spreading-in-australia/12060704)
I'll let you draw your own conclusions.


Looks like good case to lockdown at least NSW or at least Sydney?
https://www.woodworkforums.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=470126&d=1584521240
look I know that the health systems in Australia are state based, but a graph like that is really particularly unhelpful.

NE NSW and SE Queensland are essentially co-joined at Tweed Heads / Coolangatta (heck the terminal at Coolangatta airport is actually in NSW and even I can remember seeing the remnants of the barbed wire fence that used to divide the main street) so it would be much more useful if charts like that were based on sensible regions. Anyone testing positive for the novel coronavirus in between Batemans Bay and the Vic border and at least as far west as Yass will be sent to Canberra Hospital for treatment.

'twould be much more useful if the above graph were based on health regions where the ACT region is included with those bits of NSW that are also treated in Canberra.

[ian]

Maybe turn up dressed like this?
Scomo would have to at least make it tax deductible in the current climate?
470133I get the face shield being fully deductible, but the ear muffs and helmet ??

:D

[BobL]

I get the face shield being fully deductible, but the ear muffs and helmet ??

:D
Earmuffs assures students can’t ask questions. Helmet comes in handy when breaking up student disputes. :)

[BobL]

look I know that the health systems in Australia are state based, but a graph like that is really particularly unhelpful.

I agree, post code would be even better but I doubt the would release those.

[ian]

I agree, post code would be even better but I doubt the would release those.
post code would be too fine grain to be useful. Apart from one or two locations, postcodes reflect the country as it was when the population was half, maybe less than half, what it currently is.

More useful would be data based on the "designated" nearest ICU



BTW
you're up early this morning. Trouble sleeping?

[ian]

one of my former neighbours, Prof Robert Booy, on why schools should remain open
Sunrise - Prof Robert Booy Answers Coronavirus Questions | Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/Sunrise/videos/640808030084203/?t=9)

[Tccp123]

Mandatory XKCD

470139

I had a feeling that might be the answer...

[BobL]

post code would be too fine grain to be useful. Apart from one or two locations, postcodes reflect the country as it was when the population was half, maybe less than half, what it currently is.

Sure, but fine grained data can at least be easily aggregated into whatever patchwork was required.



BTW
you're up early this morning. Trouble sleeping?

Yep - now that my moon boot has gone the head worms are very active - sorting out projects, working out how to manage things, worried about relatives etc.

[Uncle Al]

SWMBO went to the local Woolies yesterday to pick up a couple of day to day items and was amazed, then amused by what she saw. The reason for some of the empty shelves became apparent when she came across one gent with 12 double packs of Tim Tams and about 10 slabs of those 12 pack flavoured yoghurts amongst a myriad of other items. I don't like yoghurt, but I can almost understand the Tim Tams.

Anyway, the amusement came when the guy arrived at the check-out where the attendant told him he could only have 2 of each item and the manager came over and started to remove the excess items! One unhappy customer and heaps of customers congratulating the attendant and manager for bringing a bit of common sense into the process.

Later in the day I went into the local Coles and was amazed to see first hand the number of empty spaces throughout the store. I found everything I wanted but it seems that the shelf stackers are unable to keep up with demand at the moment. On my morning walk this morning, the local IGA seemed to be fully stocked ready for the days trading.

Interesting times, that is for sure.

Alan...

[Greg Ward]

Shed time.
Time for all those projects that have sat in your head for years.
There's a suggestion that camphor may have antiviral properties and the same may (or may not) be for any rainforest timber that has chemicals that deter white ant infestation, red cedar, rosewood, black bean, mackay cedar, silky oak, Qld maple.
It doesn't matter.
You no longer need an excuse, you can now practise social isolation without fear of being thought crazy.
And if you have a dust protection mask all the better, it may become useful elsewhere in the future.
The small of camphor will clear your nose in any event and the best thing is you will no longer be queried as to why you are spending an inordinate time alone in a small shed.

[Tccp123]

SWMBO went to the local Woolies yesterday to pick up a couple of day to day items and was amazed, then amused by what she saw. The reason for some of the empty shelves became apparent when she came across one gent with 12 double packs of Tim Tams and about 10 slabs of those 12 pack flavoured yoghurts amongst a myriad of other items. I don't like yoghurt, but I can almost understand the Tim Tams.

Anyway, the amusement came when the guy arrived at the check-out where the attendant told him he could only have 2 of each item and the manager came over and started to remove the excess items! One unhappy customer and heaps of customers congratulating the attendant and manager for bringing a bit of common sense into the process.

Later in the day I went into the local Coles and was amazed to see first hand the number of empty spaces throughout the store. I found everything I wanted but it seems that the shelf stackers are unable to keep up with demand at the moment. On my morning walk this morning, the local IGA seemed to be fully stocked ready for the days trading.

Interesting times, that is for sure.

Alan...

Thanks for relaying what is the first bit of good news we've seen in this post for a while...

[poundy]

Sure, but fine grained data can at least be easily aggregated into whatever patchwork was required.
I'm no data scientist and in principle I agree, but you need another set of data to complement the original one, so for example a mapping of postcode to likely-hospital location. Not sure what sources of geo-data are available that might help there, and I certainly wouldn't know where to find it

[BobL]

I'm no data scientist and in principle I agree, but you need another set of data to complement the original one, so for example a mapping of postcode to likely-hospital location. Not sure what sources of geo-data are available that might help there, and I certainly wouldn't know where to find it

Hospital location doesn't really matter. What matters is the most common location of the person in the week or so previous to being detected. That way we could see which areas are likely to have unknown spreaders. Then the trackers could focus testing in those area. I'm pretty sure the authorities are already doing this. It would just be interesting to see if there were clusters although it might also unnecessarily frighten some people?

[chambezio]

The wife and I did our usual fortnightly shop at Woolworths on Tuesday at Tamworth. I was surprised at a few things.....
*it was mid morning but the whole plaza seemed less busy than usual
*the bread section looked a little "light on" stock
*the fresh meat section was only a fifth of what it usually carries
*fruit and veg was about the usual quantity available
*muesli was about out as well as other cereals
*Chocolate was to its usual quantity
*pasta was nearly gone
*soft drinks and water seemed about right
*NO toilet paper
*UHT milk was down a bit

I just can't get my head around the whole situation here as well as overseas. I am also shocked at the attitude of shoppers who "have to get it all" leaving nothing for the next shopper. What has happened to the Aussie spirit that gives everyone a fair go?

I hope common sense and common dignity are restored soon

[Tccp123]

470147

[ian]

Hospital location doesn't really matter. What matters is the most common location of the person in the week or so previous to being detected. That way we could see which areas are likely to have unknown spreaders. Then the trackers could focus testing in those area. I'm pretty sure the authorities are already doing this. It would just be interesting to see if there were clusters although it might also unnecessarily frighten some people?Unfortunately I doubt if "the authorities" have the resources to do that sort of tracing. At a minimum it would require access to mobile phone data "hot spots".

Also, as far as I know, the GIS tools to do the mapping are not widely known

[rwbuild]

470148

470149

470150

[ian]

470150
:whs:

[44Ronin]

Crown casino is still open.... pfft

[BobL]

Unfortunately I doubt if "the authorities" have the resources to do that sort of tracing. At a minimum it would require access to mobile phone data "hot spots". sorry I should have trace and inform the exposees. They are doing this where the can but nowhere near as must as they should. They have done some blanket testing around a known affectee in a few small areas in WA. In one case they tested over 300 people and picked up one unknown infection who showed symptoms 2 days later. This is supposedly why they are not blanket testing also because they don’t have enough swabs to do theses sorts of tests.


Also, as far as I know, the GIS tools to do the mapping are not widely known I assume you mean live tracking if so then I agree. A relative of ours works for state health monitoring communicable diseases and he said they have been using some basic home base data maps for some time but they don’t release data while infections are in progress.

[Tccp123]

I wonder what the lefties are making of the current situation? We seem to be rapidly approaching their goal of equal wealth distribution (i.e. everyone has about the same).

[BobL]

I wonder what the lefties are making of the current situation? We seem to be rapidly approaching their goal of equal wealth distribution (i.e. everyone has about the same).

Somehow I doubt it.
Let's say this thing goes into full lockdown for 6 months?
Case A) Someone with no savings, paying rent and no job
Case B) Someone with $10 million in savings/shares etc, (even after losing half on the stock market) and owning their own home, and no job.
Unless B) was a complete loser they're still going to have a lot more than A) after 6 months.
B won't be able to drive around with no purpose, travel, eat out, or buy fancy clobber, anyway so they will have enforced savings.

One minor side benefit of all this I've noticed are the overnight disappearance of TV ads for 3rd Party Travel Services.

[Tccp123]

Somehow I doubt it.
Let's say this thing goes into full lockdown for 6 months?
Case A) Someone with no savings, paying rent and no job
Case B) Someone with $10 million in savings/shares etc, (even after losing half on the stock market) and owning their own home, and no job.
Unless B) was a complete loser they're still going to have a lot more than A) after 6 months.
B won't be able to drive around with no purpose, travel, eat out, or buy fancy clobber, anyway so they will have enforced savings.


So who's the biggest loser? Case A or Case B?

[Tccp123]

And I might add that B has probably never driven around with no purpose, eaten out unreasonably or bought fancy clobber. That's typically why these people have $10M.

[Bushmiller]

So who's the biggest loser? Case A or Case B?

Case "B" would be crying into his beer that he could hardly go on in life and might yet have to sell his BMW, while case "A" may not be alive to say anything or is residing under the local bridge or the more favoured from that group will be setting up home in their forty year old Holden Kingswood station wagon.

It brings back the image I have of a stock broker interviewed on the TV as to what he thought of the new limitations on putting money into super (when they first came in). He said it was just awful. He would be limited to $100,000 per year. The wealthy rarely seem to have any compassion or sensibility for those less well off and seem to be totally self absorbed. They are also among the first to complain if times get tough. Possibly because they have no understanding of what it is like to struggle.

Regards
Paul

[Tccp123]

Case "B" would be crying into his beer that he could hardly go on in life and might yet have to sell his BMW, while case "A" may not be alive to say anything or is residing under the local bridge or the more favoured from that group will be setting up home in their forty year old Holden Kingswood station wagon.

It brings back the image I have of a stock broker interviewed on the TV as to what he thought of the new limitations on putting money into super (when they first came in). He said it was just awful. He would be limited to $100,000 per year. The wealthy rarely seem to have any compassion or sensibility for those less well off and seem to be totally self absorbed. They are also among the first to complain if times get tough. Possibly because they have no understanding of what it is like to struggle.

Regards
Paul

I have a relative who is a Case A. She and her husband struggle from one stimulus package to the next. When times are good they enjoy them till the money runs out then they start complaining again till the next likeline arrives. They both drink (a lot), he smokes, they have two mercs (admittedly old ones) and do zip to better their lot except to wait for handouts.

In the two cases above, if a limited stimulus package were to become available (but only one) who would you give it to? My relatives or someone who already has some money (because he's lived frugally) and is more likely to invest back into a business that might employ other people and grow?

[FenceFurniture]

The wealthy rarely seem to have any compassion or sensibility for those less well offWe may even be seeing that at very close quarters from the "not quite as wealthy as the wealthy but probably quite well off".

[BobL]

And I might add that B has probably never driven around with no purpose, eaten out unreasonably or bought fancy clobber. That's typically why these people have $10M.

Then they won't miss these so will have even more savings after 6 months.

[Tccp123]

"The wealthy rarely seem to have any compassion or sensibility for those less well off"

Do you honestly believe all those people we've seen assaulting old people in the supermarkets fighting over toilet rolls are "the wealthy"?

[FenceFurniture]

In the two cases above, if a limited stimulus package were to become available (but only one) who would you give it to? My relatives or someone who already has some money (because he's lived frugally) and is more likely to invest back into a business that might employ other people and grow?Absolutely to your relatives. It's well documented that those who live fortnight to fortnight will spend the money almost immediately on retail, which is what is designed to happen - that's why Govts have done it. Investing back into a business (presumably to make more money for the investor) does not have the same effect, and is certainly not immediate.