CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[BobL]

Has anyone done the sums?

In WA in terms of motor vehicles deaths we are down 25% over the same time last year.
Murder rates are also down.
The numbers of people with the ordinary flu (hence those dying from ordinary flu) has dropped by 2/3rds.
ETC

I really am beginning to suspect that the COVID-19 lockdowns in AUSTRALIA have overall reduced the numbers of deaths in the community rather than increased it.

Apparently the numbers of home burglaries are down but commercial burglaries are up.
DV is up about 5% but general alcohol fuelled violence is significantly down.

[Bushmiller]

I really am beginning to suspect that the COVID-19 lockdowns in AUSTRALIA have overall reduced the numbers of deaths in the community rather than increased it.


That may be,

BUT.

What would have happened if we had done a Trump?

We would now have 50,000 cases (not 6000) and 1800 deaths (not 56). I have done an extremely rough pro rata on america having ten times our population ( I appreciate it may be closer to twelve times). That would not make the comparative figures look so good.Interestingly there has been an increased incidence of speeding infringements and I am not certain, but I think the road deaths are not quite so good over on this side of the desert.

As regards conventional flu there could be at least two reasons for and improvement in figures. Firstly the self isolation is working equally well fo all types of flu and alternatively the Covid-19 is getting them first, although with 56 deaths Australia wide I am doubtful of the second scenario.

Regards
Paul

[BobL]

We would now have 50,000 cases (not 6000) and 1800 deaths (not 56). I have done an extremely rough pro rata on america having ten times our population ( I appreciate it may be closer to twelve times). That would not make the comparative figures look so good.Interestingly there has been an increased incidence of speeding infringements and I am not certain, but I think the road deaths are not quite so good over on this side of the desert.

Sure. I'm not saying we don't keep doing what we are doing but trying to find some real positives in purely the Australian Context ie to show it's not all one way.
Some economist may even be able to put a financial cost on what the lives saved cost.


As regards conventional flu there could be at least two reasons for and improvement in figures. Firstly the self isolation is working equally well fo all types of flu and alternatively the Covid-19 is getting them first, although with 56 deaths Australia wide I am doubtful of the second scenario.

I agree, the numbers of deaths so far in AUS (with all respect to those that have died) are more or less in the statistical noise.
I think basic hand hygiene may be even more important than we think. Perhaps this is a lesson we can take post COVID-19 - ie carry/use sanitiser, make available more public places to wash hands, revise/improve ventilation in cruise ships, restaurants, shopping centres.

[GraemeCook]

Has anyone done the sums?

In WA in terms of motor vehicles deaths we are down 25% over the same time last year.
Murder rates are also down.
The numbers of people with the ordinary flu ... has dropped by 2/3rds.
ETC

I really am beginning to suspect that the COVID-19 lockdowns in AUSTRALIA have overall reduced the numbers of deaths in the community rather than increased it.
....

WOW, that is one hell of an insight, Bob.

To try to put that in perspective, the most recent data that I can find for relevant Australia-wide death rates are for 2017-18 and are:

375 Homicide,
3,046 Suicide, and
1,145 Road fatalities.
4,566 Total of Above, (equivalent to 87.8 per week).


So far, there have been 6,238 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 54 diagnosed deaths - ALL those deaths have occured in the last six weeks.

I concur that it is highly feasible that the overall death rate has been reduced by COVID-19.

4510.0 - Recorded Crime - Victims, Australia, 2018 (https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/Lookup/by%20Subject/4510.0~2018~Main%20Features~Victims%20of%20Crime,%20Australia~3)
3303.0 - Causes of Death, Australia, 2018 (https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/Lookup/by%20Subject/3303.0~2018~Main%20Features~Intentional%20self-harm,%20key%20characteristics~3)
Road Trauma Australia—Annual Summaries | Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/road_deaths_australia_annual_summaries)
Coronavirus (COVID-19) current situation and case numbers | Australian Government Department of Health (https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers)

[FenceFurniture]

I think basic hand hygiene may be even more important than we think. Perhaps this is a lesson we can take post COVID-19 - ie carry/use sanitiser, make available more public places to wash hands, revise/improve ventilation in cruise ships, restaurants, shopping centres.I think so Bob. I've been particularly watchful of shaking hands and public surfaces in the winter months for years now. Like Boris, for a long time I was in the business of shaking hands sometimes several times a day, and I'd often invent needing a trip to the toilet.

I had a (non) "Tradesman" camped here for a few years - always seemed to be working on something around here. He'd go down the back for a slash and then want to either shake hands or handle my tools or whatever. Used to give me the creeps. Shaking hands with someone like that....you may as well be holding their old fella. :puke:

[FenceFurniture]

I concur that it is highly feasible that the overall death rate has been reduced by COVID-19.Well...yeah...but it's not much of a way for a country to live. My point is that a statement like that is grist to the mill for you-know-who to take out of context.

[Tccp123]

This little number chugging ever upward makes the whole "100k dead" thing seem all rather trivial....

World Population Clock: Daily Births - Worldometer (https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/)

We are a plague:

World Population Clock: growth (https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/#pastfuture)


Thank you WoodPixel. Hopefully you will be more successful at having people listen to you than I ever was...

[NeilS]

Some good news. The current Coronavirus doesn't seem to mutating in any significant way that would change its characteristics. The H1N1 outbreak in 1918 did, with disastrous consequences.

Researchers Look At How The Coronavirus Is Mutating — And Possible Consequences : Goats and Soda : NPR (https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/25/820998549/the-coronavirus-is-mutating-but-that-may-not-be-a-problem-for-humans)

Of potential concern are recent reports out of South Korea that some cases that had tested negative to the virus after recovery have since tested positive again. There are a number of reasons that may account for that, but it is too soon to know the significance of this, if any.

South Korea Reports Recovered Coronavirus Patients Testing Positive Again - The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/10/world/asia/10reuters-health-coronavirus-southkorea.html)

[Tccp123]

Food for thought from today's Australian:

This week there were big black police cars marked Public Order and Riot Squad cruising around the quiet suburb where I live. It was 10.30 in the morning. There were barely any other cars on the road and no sign of any public disorder, let alone a riot.

There were seven rangers in my park the day before, more than the number of people exercising, or walking, or looking for a ray of sunshine. On the same day, a tiny bay — not a beach, and not far away from me — was locked up with 2m-high fencing so surfers couldn’t find refuge in the waves. Like the riot squad, the rangers and the men putting up fencing were all just doing what they were told to do by superiors.
Which is the same as the Morrison government. They keep telling us they are doing what their superiors, a panel of scientists, are telling them to do. Closing down businesses, large gatherings, sport, church services, culling funerals and weddings, curbing gatherings to two people, unless you are with family or friends you live with.
Two people? It wasn’t so long ago that governments were making room in their ministries for ministers for social isolation. Now, our governments are forcing the country into strict isolation, under threat of jail.
After only two weeks of this, many people are asking whether we are in a corner with no discernible way out. These sentiments are serious. They will get more serious in another week, two weeks, in another month. Talk of putting the country into “hibernation” for six months seems ridiculous. Can it really work?
We are told there is “no magic” to the highly hypothetical modelling released this week. It is guesswork then? If it is not guesswork, please entrust us with meaningful information that we can use to judge whether the cure is worse than the disease.
All we can see so far is an arms race of restrictions on how we live and work by state and federal governments. Let us award Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews first prize in this alarming competition for doing the most to close down an economy and constraining citizens. With that out of the way, it is time for the federal government, using real metrics rather than hypothetical modelling, to start planning how to reopen the country.
To be sure, listen to medical experts. And then add, weigh up and parse other information too. Information such as the economic costs of shutting down businesses, the long-term effects of unemployment, the costs of piling debt on to future generations, the ability of the country to deal with future crises from a position of economic weakness. Other information too, such as the costs of isolating millions of Australians, the mental health costs, the diseases that won’t be treated properly during this pandemic. And share it with us, even the uncertainty.
From chief scientists to premiers to police commissioners and the Prime Minister, they have all talked about the journey we are on together. Journey together? Short of our political leaders mapping an eventual path to recovery for us, and sharing that with us, there is no journey, only confusion.
There is not going to be a “snap back” to normality — that is the stuff of dreams. It is more silly language that must stop. But please, Prime Minister, take us into your confidence, trust us by telling us what you are watching to plan for recovery, so we can watch for the same metrics. There is a need for some meaningful light and hope for a country swathed in darkness, uncertainty and fear.
Trust is a two-way street. If you trust us with a way out, we might trust you. We will also have some hope, some light at the end of this tunnel. Not trusting us is surely the road to civil disobedience. It’s only been two weeks and people are getting tetchy, itchy, restless. Has the government factored this in? Have they worked out what might be the tipping point for when we disobey and hop over fences?
There are powerful forces working against a meaningful exit strategy. The first one is human nature, always planning for the worst, avoiding all risk instead of managing it sensibly. That is killing our economy right now. It is leading people to despair. The second equation is that no politician is going to be held responsible for the future suicide of an unemployed young man who has lost hope. But they imagine they will be held responsible for the immediate death of a 94-year old from, or with, COVID-19.
No wonder many feel we are heading on a path more dangerous than a virus. Alas, if we want the government to come clean with us, it is time for us to come clean with ourselves. There is no easy option here. We can’t build walls around the country indefinitely. We can’t keep 25 million people in lockdown without dreadful, deadly consequences. We can’t keep praying for a vaccine. What if there is not a vaccine for a year, two years, five years, ever?
Even building up immunity may not work. What if there is another virus just like this one next year, or the year after? The economy in ruins, how do we support another six million who would be thrown out of the workplace by shutdowns. The shocking truth is we may have to learn to live with a killer virus just as we live, and some die, from other killer, albeit non-contagious, diseases.
Before this pandemic is over, we are all going to have to address some tough ethical questions. Questions of life and death, questions about rationing scarce resources, and questions about who gets priority when there is only one parachute but two aircraft passengers. A virus that disproportionately kills old people raises awful, but unavoidable, questions.
But in today’s society, Pollyannas will claim that all lives are of equal value, and that everyone has an equal claim to our limited resources. It is heartwarming. It is also wrong.
How do you answer an 83-year woman who says her life is every bit as valuable as that of a teenager? If there is only one ventilator in the COVID-19 intensive care unit, someone has to choose between giving it to the old woman who may have many health problems and only a few more years to live, or to an otherwise healthy 19-year-old. Do we make them toss a coin? How do we decide, if not by judging which life has more value?
Steve Waterson’s sobering piece last weekend had one particular line that has stuck. Life is precious, but it is not priceless. That is a confronting reality. All sorts of dreadful decisions are frequently made that will save some lives and cause others to die. Who gets the liver transplant, an old man or a young woman? Why aren’t all very expensive lifesaving drugs offered free of charge? Because we do not have infinite resources, so we choose some which we will offer for low or no cost.
Maybe one benefit of the COVID-19 pandemic is that Pollyanna thinking will be put to bed. We can surely never again pretend that hard choices, about life and death, need not be made.
Janet Albrechtsen (https://www.theaustralian.com.au/author/Janet+Albrechtsen)

[Tccp123]

I think so Bob. I've been particularly watchful of shaking hands and public surfaces in the winter months for years now. Like Boris, for a long time I was in the business of shaking hands sometimes several times a day, and I'd often invent needing a trip to the toilet.

I had a (non) "Tradesman" camped here for a few years - always seemed to be working on something around here. He'd go down the back for a slash and then want to either shake hands or handle my tools or whatever. Used to give me the creeps. Shaking hands with someone like that....you may as well be holding their old fella. :puke:

Good to see the thread has lost none of its class while I've been away...

[BobL]

Well...yeah...but it's not much of a way for a country to live.

Sure, but washing one hands on a regular basis is not much of a change, let alone requiring a shut down or lock out.

I'm looking more at any overall positives and things we can learn from this - as my old professor used to say - when you "stuff up" or something unfortunate happens try to see if it comes with a learning opportunity.

I'd say a lot more workers and bosses may find they want to work more from home than in the past, reduced need for public transport, less densely packed roads.

I reckon more uni stuff than ever will stay on line.

More telemedicine - shoulda been done years ago.

What else?

I'd also like to think they review and upgrade air ventilation on planes and cruise ships.

[Lappa]

Good old telemedicine.

YouTube (https://youtu.be/3mijdiDKA6Q)

[FenceFurniture]

I'm looking more at any overall positives and things we can learn from this

What else?LOADS! Where to start.....I was actually discussing this with a mate this morning.

There must be huge savings that businesses will be able to make. Less real estate for offices, desks, parking lots, cafeterias etc etc etc. Massive savings there.

Suddenly people will be able to work from Melbourne, Perth, Bullamakanka for a Sydney based company, and fly in one per month or something for a day or three. Stay at a colleague's house for some bonding.

Less traffic on the roads
Less stress
Less pollution from vehicles.
Less consumption of "stuff" (tyres, petrol, work clothes, make-up, and so on)
More room on Public Transport during peaks.
More Teleconsulting of all sorts of things (legal, economics, sorry, accountancy

There must be an enormous amount of other stuff. Woodpixel will be good at nominating things.

Think of all those work computers that only get used for 8 hours a day in the old system. A massive share of them can go. All that office space real estate that is only used for 8 hours a day.

In short, and when we recover somewhat, I think commerce is going to severely disrupt itself for the better with a fundamental and seismic shift towards working from home permanently, with all that comes with that scenario. There will be opportunities that disruptors will make new fortunes from.

A huge casualty will be printed media in all its forms - people won't be travelling to work on the train, just for starters.


One thing is absolutely certain - there has never been a better time to become an IT professional - in all the associated fields of sales, service, programming etc. They are going to be in huge demand, travelling around to employees homes to do stuff to improve their efficiency.

[GraemeCook]

...

I reckon more uni stuff than ever will stay on line.

....

I agree with you, Bob, but the critical words are "than ever": its an accelaration of existant trend rather than something new.

A few years ago I went back to uni as a (very) mature age student and did another degree and found two major changes from my prior undergraduate and graduate experiences of c.40 years ago:

all lecture theatres equipped with video cameras and all lectures were recorded and available online about ten minutes after each lecture ended, and
Lectures tended to be faster paced and more information dense than I remembered.

Initially I found the latter aspect difficult, very difficult to keep up with notes until I realised that I did not have to. I could just listen to (and watch) the recording at whatever pace was best. I quickly came to appreciate this innovation.

Occasionally, perhpas 5-10% of lectures were "online only" - code for a rebroadcast of last years lecture (or earlier?). Almost all students, myself included, hated those "online only" lectures; there is a tangible benefit of being in a live lecture theatre. The perpetual grumblers attributed "online only"lectures to penny pinching by the university, but often it could be attributed to staff sickness, interstate travel, or something else.

Unfortunately, I think that you are correct.

[Tccp123]

Sure, but washing one hands on a regular basis is not much of a change, let alone requiring a shut down or lock out.

I'm looking more at any overall positives and things we can learn from this - as my old professor used to say - when you "stuff up" or something unfortunate happens try to see if it comes with a learning opportunity.

I'd say a lot more workers and bosses may find they want to work more from home than in the past, reduced need for public transport, less densely packed roads.

I reckon more uni stuff than ever will stay on line.

More telemedicine - shoulda been done years ago.

What else?

I'd also like to think they review and upgrade air ventilation on planes and cruise ships.

How about in future we avoid this response "always planning for the worst, avoiding all risk instead of managing it sensibly"?

[BobL]

How about in future we avoid this response "always planning for the worst, avoiding all risk instead of managing it sensibly"?

Hum . . . . . there's a lot of water still to flow under this virus bridge yet.
We still don't have enough experience or info about this virus to "manage it sensibly".
I'd say we have been on the lucky side so far and think we have only been able to "minimise it" so far because we have been on the hard side. Just a tad sloppier and we could easily be where Italy/Spain/US/NY are right now.

This virus is far from over and could still turn around and bite us hard.
Second wave, with limited/no immunity, no vaccine, and a population who think they've seen it all before and misbehave, and we'll be down there with the third world.

[Tccp123]

Hum . . . . . there's a lot of water still to flow under this virus bridge yet.
We still don't have enough experience or info about this virus to "manage it sensibly".
I'd say we have been on the lucky side so far and think we have only been able to "minimise it" so far because we have been on the hard side. Just a tad sloppier and we could easily be where Italy/Spain/US/NY are right now.

This virus is far from over and could still turn around and bite us hard.
Second wave, with limited/no immunity, no vaccine, and a population who think they've seen it all before and misbehave, and we'll be down there with the third world.

There you go again Bob "always planning for the worst,"

OK so we keep lockdown in place. We don't have any new infections. It's six months from now.

What do we do then?

[Tccp123]

If this was a game of chess I'm thinking we'll all beginners, thinking one step ahead. We need to do more...

[Lappa]

I am one in the throws of going from face to face teaching to online as a teacher, not a student. It certainly is a huge shift as we have had 2 weeks to get it up and running and that’s on top of mandatory training sessions and online meetings. Most of us will spend the Easter break at work. The one problem is equipment. Those who have been doing for ages have excellent videoing equipment so face to face sessions can be recorded then available for students - my sister was heavily involved in it at Uni so I am well aware of the gear they had. I would love to video some prac. demonstrations but it’s not easy to do with a web cam on the laptop.:D Mobile webcams etc are like hen’s teeth with 6 week plus waiting times.
We have to start from scratch and present online - no face to face. It’s all new technology to both us and the students. Trial sessions have shown vast difference in bandwidths which makes things like streaming videos truely problematic. So, we can provide links but most students have stated they have limited data so online sessions need to be kept short as do videos. We have talked to employers about providing the equipment at work but some of the smaller shops have pretty average equipment and small data allowances.
So, it’s going to be trial and error for the first few weeks while we sort out connection issues, get both us and the students up to date and familiar with the programs we are using. We do however have resource books, text books and some online companies that have excellent online resources so we should be OK.
Actually looking forward to it.:2tsup:

[Tccp123]

I am one in the throws of going from face to face teaching to online as a teacher, not a student. It certainly is a huge shift as we have had 2 weeks to get it up and running and that’s on top of mandatory training sessions and online meetings. Most of us will spend the Easter break at work. The one problem is equipment. Those who have been doing for ages have excellent videoing equipment so face to face sessions can be recorded then available for students - my sister was heavily involved in it at Uni so I am well aware of the gear they had. I would love to video some prac. demonstrations but it’s not easy to do with a web cam on the laptop.:D Mobile webcams etc are like hen’s teeth with 6 week plus waiting times.
We have to start from scratch and present online - no face to face. It’s all new technology to both us and the students. Trial sessions have shown vast difference in bandwidths which makes things like streaming videos truely problematic. So, we can provide links but most students have stated they have limited data so online sessions need to be kept short as do videos. We have talked to employers about providing the equipment at work but some of the smaller shops have pretty average equipment and small data allowances.
So, it’s going to be trial and error for the first few weeks while we sort out connection issues, get both us and the students up to date and familiar with the programs we are using. We do however have resource books, text books and some online companies that have excellent online resources so we should be OK.
Actually looking forward to it.:2tsup:

I feel your pain. I've worked in IT all my life and am very aware of the limitations both in terms of technical know-how and bandwidth availability to make this work. It won't be easy.

[FenceFurniture]

some of the smaller shops have pretty average equipment and small data allowances.Re data allowance - in the context of a business it's chicken feed to go unlimited - probably $10-20 per month extra, and perhaps the same again to go up in speed if it's required. Not sure where NBN availability is up to though.

Maybe that's an area that the Fed Govt should look at - getting good equipment into small businesses and getting them on a good data plan. The Govt will need the country to recover as quickly as possible.

[BobL]

There you go again Bob "always planning for the worst,"

OK so we keep lockdown in place. We don't have any new infections. It's six months from now.

What do we do then?

Even if./when a vaccine becomes available I doubt there will ever be zero new infections over say a weekly basis.

If we have zero community (unknown source) infections for 2 quarantine periods (ie total of 28 days) I don't think we need to wait for 6 months..
It will even be OK to have small numbers (1-2 per day) of "known" source infections during and even after that period as long as they are immediately chased up and relevant contacts are quarantined.

But we can't go fully open after that period it will have to be staged recovery otherwise if it gets out of hand again we'll have to go back to a hard lock down and the will really people off.
The staged reopening could follow the order of locking down with about 2 weeks periods between each stage.

We will almost certainly have to have a tight lid on OS travellers for the foreseeable future as it appears the rest of the world will be raging for some time with this thing. People can come in from select countries but need to quarantine for 14 days.

The hardest thing will be to decide on fully opening of large/dense people gatherings.

[Tccp123]

We will almost certainly have to have a tight lid on OS travellers for the foreseeable future as it appears the rest of the world will be raging for some time with this thing. People can come in from select countries but need to quarantine for 14 days.

The hardest thing will be to decide on fully opening of large/dense people gatherings.

...or we go with the hard option?

[Tccp123]

I realise this won't be a popular option for the Pollyannas but is there a choice? I should add that I turn 70 in June and I have high blood pressure...

But I'll take the chance.

[BobL]

I realise this won't be a popular option for the Pollyannas but is there a choice? I should add that I turn 70 in June and I have high blood pressure...

But I'll take the chance.

Not me. I have 4 co-morbidities that are currently just managebale, mum is 92, a sister and brother are recent cancer survivors, and another sister has a raft of health concerns.

[clear out]

Who’s got a lighter?
H.

[FenceFurniture]

This little number chugging ever upward makes the whole "100k dead" thing seem all rather trivial....

World Population Clock: Daily Births - Worldometer (https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/)

We are a plague:

World Population Clock: growth (https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/#pastfuture)Whilst I don't disagree with your sentiment, it will only be 100k dead with all the technology, medical expertise, N95 masks, gloves, lockdowns etc that are being brought to bear. If we were back in 1917 it would be a whole lot different.

[woodPixel]

Hopefully you will be more successful at having people listen to you than I ever was...

I was only using it as a thought piece, not my political opinions (which I'm beginning to requestion, again!)....

The idea really wasn't about how "just" 100k died. This isn't great and I'm not suggesting our species could do with a fair hit to balance the ecological equation.... BUT, seeing that birth rate clock over.... bleep, bleep, bleep, bleep, bleep, bleep...

Its horrifying. If it were locusts, or T-rex's, or Donald Trump clones, we'd kill it with fire and without mercy.

Think about it. Every second a new human or 8 is popped out. Like some auto-factory.... a goddam Vonn Neumann nightmare.

A self-replicating machine of all-consumption.

After seeing the ASTOUNDING recovery of our environment in only a month (smog gone! Himalayas seen in India! Oceans recovering!) its more important than ever that we, as entire planetary species, learn from this episode and fix our sins against the environment.

JMO :)

[Sturdee]

Let us award Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews first prize in this alarming competition for doing the most to close down an economy and constraining citizens.

Whilst you may not think that Daniel Andrews does a great job, I, as an Victorian, think he is doing a fantastic job in this unprecedented crisis.

Without his incisive action I may not survive this crisis due to my health conditions and I also believe that if a decision has to be made between say a nineteen year old or me then IMO it should be me that is saved.

Peter.

[Glider]

On a lighter note, elder daughter has a flat in South Bank which looks across the Yarra to the Melbourne CBD. Yesterday she texted a video taken the previous evening from her flat showing people yelling, singing and shining torches from their balconies right across the city.

Very uplifting, I thought.

mick :)

[FenceFurniture]

Yesterday she texted a video taken the previous evening from her flat showing people yelling, singing and shining torches from their balconies right across the city.Have you been doing that in Edith?

[FenceFurniture]

Whilst you may not think that Daniel Andrews does a great job, I, as an Victorian, think he is doing a fantastic job in this unprecedented crisis. Peter.Jaysus Peter, did you actually read that tosh from Albrechtsen? I saw enough of her on Q&A to know I'm better off not hearing or reading any thought bubble she might have. You may as well just read The World According to Rupert, and that won't enrich your life either - quite the opposite. It's all very well to get a range of opinions, but it's even better to know and avoid those that are a waste of pixels.

[doug3030]

Whilst you may not think that Daniel Andrews does a great job, I, as an Victorian, think he is doing a fantastic job in this unprecedented crisis.

Daniel Andrews has put strong restrictions on travel alright. It has been hard enough to get anywhere in Melbourne for ages because he started every roadwork project you could think of (except for the East-West link, which was the only one he should have been doing anyway). But he does not have th e money to finish any of them and the result is nobody can go anywhere anyway.

So because he can't build the transport infrastructure we need, he has instead reduced the number of people who can travel to the extent that the network can support the new volume. Covid19 is Daniel's best friend.

[BobL]

After seeing the ASTOUNDING recovery of our environment in only a month (smog gone! Himalayas seen in India! Oceans recovering!) its more important than ever that we, as entire planetary species, learn from this episode and fix our sins against the environment.


Hummmmm . . . . CO2 and other green house gasses in the air are not disappearing and are actually still increasing albeit a little slower, because no fossil fuelled powered power plants have been switched off. The reduction in electricity use has brought down energy prices so there will be a tendency to keep using fossil fuels making the transition to less polluting sources slower. And plastics have not stopped flooding into the oceans . . . .I could go on.

[Glider]

Have you been doing that in Edith?

We're isolated 365 here so life has gone on as normal. Jenolan Caves has been closed since the bushfires so no "peak hour" traffic from Oberon.

I saw a truck yesterday.

mick :)

[FenceFurniture]

A longish read:
He Could Have Seen What Was Coming: Behind Trump’s Failure on the Virus - The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-response.html)

[Lappa]

Interesting sms from a relative who lives in California.


“ Seems like good news for both Australia and New Zealand with the lock downs. Also seems like Commonwealth countries are doing lockdowns on a national level and following up with enforcement - friend from the UK said they are only allowed out to for one exercise/day and are stopping cars and people and fining if people do not have a legitimate reason for being out. Very different here - the federal government will not take ownership for anything and have left it to the governors and mayors for each of the states to decide on a state-by-state or even city-by-city policy - which is very haphazard and also has state bidding against state for equipment and supplies and then the federal government will come in and out bid and then give it to the state that Trump likes (read republican) or the state that has been most appreciative of him - he has even said “states need to appreciate him”. Good that they are being realistic with the time for lockdown - here again Trump is itching to get the country back to work (only because if the economy is still in bad shape come election time in November he will not do well) - the medical experts are warning that this would be a huge problem and a return to where we were - he said he will listen but then make up his own mind - the good thing is that governors will make up their own minds on a state-by-state basis and that goodness California has a good intelligent governor who is making decisions based on medical advice. California is also doing well in flattening the curve and we are not forecast to peak until mid May - schools in California are closed until next academic year. “

[FenceFurniture]

Well at least the most important thing has been satisfied: Trump will have something to blame for his loss in November, and it can't answer back.

[Lappa]

The problem is that Trump is up against Biden, the man who has problems straining a sentence together. Gezzus, what a choice!

[woodhutt]

One thing that does concern me is how we have become almost totally reliant on essential medicines, PPE, ventilators etc. from overseas suppliers - largely China, who manufacture a large percentage of the world's medications. It seems that we have put too much faith in globalization at the risk of being unable to source essential supplies.
We have already seen the US refusing to supply Canada with face masks, despite the fact that Canada supplies the US with the raw materials to make them. Is it too much a stretch of the imagination to envisage a situation where we may not be able to source essential items either because the manufacturing country will not supply because of its own needs? Or perhaps the supply chain fails because of the impact of a pandemic?
Perhaps it's time to re-think the 'global village' theory for certain goods. I have no problem with China or any other country making all the world's mobiles, clothes, teapots and kiddies toys. If these goods disappeared tomorrow the world would get by.
Maybe Aus, NZ and Japan for example should be looking at a collaborative pharmaceutical industry. Perhaps new industries to produce PPE and medical equipment. What do we have to lose except a decline in unemployment to service new industries and perhaps a paying a little more for our medicines?
Pete

[GraemeCook]

......he started every roadwork project you could think of (except for the East-West link, which was the only one he should have been doing anyway). ....


Melbourne ..... East-West Link ..... ????????

Melbourne social demographics raise two questions:

Why would anyone in the East want to go to the West?
Why should anyone in the West be allowed to go to the East?

[GraemeCook]

Jaysus Peter, did you actually read that tosh from Albrechtsen? .....

Who still reads albrechtsen???? Or the cohort of news ltd "journalists" huddling to the right of rupert and his commercial interests.

I must be getting old, but I can remember the young Rupert who thought that to create an interesting paper you had to employ both Karl Marx and Ghengis Khan. Remember when the Australian's stable included the likes of Paddy McGuinness and Mungo MacCullum and Pickering?

[GraemeCook]

.....
We have already seen the US refusing to supply Canada with face masks, despite the fact that Canada supplies the US with the raw materials to make them. ....


????? How much cotton is grown in Canada?

[Chesand]

Melbourne ..... East-West Link ..... ????????

Melbourne social demographics raise two questions:

Why would anyone in the East want to go to the West?
Why should anyone in the West be allowed to go to the East?


Now, now, not nice.:D

[woodhutt]

????? How much cotton is grown in Canada?

As I understand it Graeme they're made from a specific type of woodpulp which Canada exports to the US.
Pete

Mitch Garber, an investor and member of the Order of Canada, wrote: "Today Canadians are deeply disappointed in @realDonaldTrump's actions regarding the availability of @3M masks in Canada. It's worth noting that these masks are made with Canadian produced pulp, & Canada will not withhold that pulp, because that is not how countries act."
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[Bushmiller]

Melbourne ..... East-West Link ..... ????????



????

Not being from Melbourne, could it be for the continued supply of toilet rolls?

Regards
Paul

[doug3030]

Melbourne ..... East-West Link ..... ????????

Melbourne social demographics raise two questions:

Why would anyone in the East want to go to the West?
Why should anyone in the West be allowed to go to the East?



It's not so much the east or the west that are the problems - it's the bits in the middle

https://www.canstar.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Melbourne-high-crime-suburbs-resized.jpg

[BobL]

Really interesting case study of SARS-2 transmission in a Chinese restaurant

Early Release - COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020 - Volume 26, Number 7—July 2020 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article)

A1 was the infector - the other red circles were the Infectees - note dates at which affected diners were picked up.
It looks like the AC (which was recycling air in the room) was able to drag SARS-2 from A1 back to infect C1 and C2.
This is almost certainly droplet transmission.

471517

[Sturdee]

Melbourne ..... East-West Link ..... ????????

Melbourne social demographics raise two questions:

Why would anyone in the East want to go to the West?
Why should anyone in the West be allowed to go to the East?


I wasn't going to comment on the East West link but since others have I'll chime in with what I know.

The link did not proceed because the cost would never be recovered by the projected usage as it would only generate 20% of the operating cost of the tunnels, so the secret agreement reached by the then government was for all major roads between East and West would also be tolled. This included the roads leading onto the Westgate bridge, the old Princes Highway, the Western ring road and a few others.

All these roads would be tolled at the same toll cost as the East West link tolls, effectively dividing the city in two.

Peter.

[woodPixel]

Maybe Aus, NZ and Japan for example should be looking at a collaborative pharmaceutical industry...

Recently I spoke with our local pharmacist about this. He is a compounding chemist. I had a joke with him that there are enough meth-head junkies in the suburb that we could press them into service brewing stuff up!

He wasn't amused (probably heard that 50 thousand times over the years).

He stated, resignedly, that even IF we could get all the right gear and right people in the right place, that ALL the precursors used for literally everything are made either in China or India.

These precursors are apparently not easy to make. Bits for various drugs come in from a dozen places, apparently. Most of the stuff we use here is assembled in Malaysia/Philippines.

He said China/India have an economic stranglehold on production and that no pharma would dream of touching that area as it would get killed by price. Even with this plague, he said that it would take years to crank up any local facility to the levels we'd need.

In his estimation, not do-able.

His advice, as he was shaking various boxes, would be to try like hell to get off anything and everything you can... cos it might not be on the shelf in 6 months... or ever....


..
..
(I need to loose weight, get fit, eat properly, sleep well, drink more water, loose the depression, drop the blood pressure, fix the cholesterol.... loose 20 years of age...) sigh.....

[NeilS]

I enjoyed reading this article in the SMH (currently free access) that I thought highlights the best of us.

A force for good: how the coronavirus crisis is sweetening our collective tune (https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-force-for-good-how-the-coronavirus-crisis-is-sweetening-our-collective-tune-20200227-p5452j.html)

[GraemeCook]

I enjoyed reading this article in the SMH (currently free access) that I thought highlights the best of us.

A force for good: how the coronavirus crisis is sweetening our collective tune (https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-force-for-good-how-the-coronavirus-crisis-is-sweetening-our-collective-tune-20200227-p5452j.html)



Thanks, Neil.

So rare to see main stream media publishing good news stories these days.

[NeilS]

Really interesting case study of SARS-2 transmission in a Chinese restaurant

Early Release - COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020 - Volume 26, Number 7—July 2020 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article)

A1 was the infector - the other red circles were the Infectees - note dates at which affected diners were picked up. It looks like the AC (which was recycling air in the room) was able to drag SARS-2 from A1 back to infect C1 and C2. This is almost certainly droplet transmission.



What precludes person A1=> crockery/utensils => to staff hands when clearing items from table => to new crockery/utensil for table B and C => to persons on table B and C.

With no reported staff infection that reduces the likelihood of that transmission pathway.

However, it is proper etiquette in China to lift your eating bowl (not the serving bowls or plates) close to your mouth while eating. It is not unreasonable to think that droplets could be deposited on the bowl while eating and that these could then be transferred to a staff member's hands when removing eating bowls and chopsticks from the table, then transfer the virus onto the new crockery/utensil for table B and C. The research letter reports that the infected persons on all three tables were present during an overlapping period. So, this is an alternative explanation to transfer via the air conditioning. I'm not sure if this alternative explanation may not have cultural/political sensitivities and was not raised for that reason or it could simply be that the order of table service, etc, may have eliminate this explanation, but that was not reported on in the research letter.

The cruise ship phenomena has given aircon transmission some legs, but I would have thought that food service (east or west) is just as likely to be the explanation, plus all of the other possibilities like stairway railings, lift buttons, etc, etc. are just as likely.

[clear out]

No chance of cross infection when a few mates and myself used to go to Chinese restaurants 40 years ago.
We’d put the full esky down next to us and a few locals would ease out the door.
Once we had a few and Al would start laughing the rest would soon follow.
We weren’t swearing or arguing, just bloody loud.
No droplets were ever exhaled but the peas and carrots had been known to be sprayed from moving vehicles. If you got the window down in time.
I just sit and grin when the missus and I are in a restaurant nowadays and some young una are having a good time.
Karma I reckon.

[BobL]

Some Good points Neil,
Maybe if it was staff transfer one might also expect diners elsewhere in the restaurant to be affected?

[NeilS]

Maybe if it was staff transfer one might also expect diners elsewhere in the restaurant to be affected?



Yes, and there were 83 customers in total spread over 15 tables and of those only the customers on 3 tables became infected.

And, the weakest part of the proposition that the staff could be the vector is that none of them contracted it themselves, which is highly unlikely given how contagious this virus is.

If the virus can be spread through aircon that does have significant implications for aircon systems within hospitals. From my only experience (not me) of the infectious diseases units in ICUs, they have neg air pressure systems that isolate the air from escaping to other areas of the hospital, but they have very limited capacity. Yet, another good reason to limit the spread of this virus and hospital admissions.

[BobL]

We did LOTS of testing in our clean rooms regarding the transfer of dust particulates from operators to various parts of the lab.
Counteracting that was that we had to control exposure to nasty acid vapours in other parts of the labs.

Instead of cross flow we used positive pressure down flow chambers to create air curtains to separate people from samples and negative pressure down flow chambers to separate acid vapours from people. We also used transparent plastic curtains and clear polycarbonate sheet to separate some spaces. It got very complicated really quickly.

We only needed about 100 fpm to protect samples from the small amounts of dust generated by a full PPEd operator but for the acid vapour air curtains we used up to 800 fpm. I'm pretty sure they don't worry too much about air flow in hospitals.

I believe plane air goes down over passengers into slots in the floor before it's refiltered..

[FenceFurniture]

a full PPEd operatorMaybe that's what wait staff need to wear. Even better, they could operate a pair of those arms you see in Nuclear labs. :D

[FenceFurniture]

Sounds like Trump might be gearing up to fire Fauci. Some failed politician in CA tweeted something about time to fire Fauci, and Trump retweeted it. Fauci will be answering questions on C-Span at 10am AEST tomorrow.....if he hasn't been sacked by then.

[woodPixel]

Sounds like Trump might be gearing up to fire Fauci. Some failed politician in CA tweeted something about time to fire Fauci, and Trump retweeted it. Fauci will be answering questions on C-Span at 10am AEST tomorrow.....if he hasn't been sacked by then.

Can't have people contradicting the despots/tyrants edicts.

They are doomed.

[BobL]

Maybe that's what wait staff need to wear. Even better, they could operate a pair of those arms you see in Nuclear labs. :D

Aspects of your suggestions are not as silly as it sounds.

Just as wood working fine dust can be controlled by the use of ventilation the same could be applied to restaurants and I reckon I could set up a restaurant whereby the transmission of any breath base bug could be very significantly reduced.

1) diners wash/sanitize their hands when entering

2) Social spaced seating goes without saying - diners 1.5m apart. Maybe even only 1m apart depending on the efficiency of 2)

3) Vertical airflow curtains - a bank of HEPA Filters covering the whole ceiling dumping clean air down over diners to vents in the floor and recycling it back to the HEPA filters.

4) Chefs, kitchen hands and wait staff in PPE - apron mask, gloves and face shield.

5) Air flow curtains between chefs and food being prepared

6) Food covered immediately after cooking and uncovered only at the table in front of diner.

I'm surprised no one has set such a thing up - could be a good marketing opportunity.
The PPE could be theme styled eg punk, goth, renaissance, space age, grunge, wild west, etc could even be fun!

[woodPixel]

BobL, a dining experience like that sounds a little unromantic :)

[Simplicity]

Aspects of your suggestions are not as silly as it sounds.

Just as wood working fine dust can be controlled by the use of ventilation the same could be applied to restaurants and I reckon I could set up a restaurant whereby the transmission of any breath base bug could be very significantly reduced.

1) diners wash/sanitize their hands when entering

2) Social spaced seating goes without saying - diners 1.5m apart. Maybe even only 1m apart depending on the efficiency of 2)

3) Vertical airflow curtains - a bank of HEPA Filters covering the whole ceiling dumping clean air down over diners to vents in the floor and recycling it back to the HEPA filters.

4) Chefs, kitchen hands and wait staff in PPE - apron mask, gloves and face shield.

5) Air flow curtains between chefs and food being prepared

6) Food covered immediately after cooking and uncovered only at the table in front of diner.

I'm surprised no one has set such a thing up - could be a good marketing opportunity.
The PPE could be theme styled eg punk, goth, renaissance, space age, grunge, wild west, etc could even be fun!

Not exactly the most romantic night down the local French restaurant tho.

But I certainly get were your heading Bob.

Cheers Matt.

[NeilS]

I'm surprised no one has set such a thing up - could be a good marketing opportunity.
The PPE could be theme styled eg punk, goth, renaissance, space age, grunge, wild west, etc could even be fun!

:U

...Bomb Squad, Knights of the Round Table, Ninja, Dr Plague (https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ALeKk034K2o-c1fmOnt4L5iYMXd8mAsMbQ:1586821140253&q=Dr+Plague&tbm=isch&source=univ&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjQ74uzyeboAhWDzTgGHdEUDZkQsAR6BAgIEAE&biw=1264&bih=501), ICU, Survivor, ?,?, ...

[NeilS]

:U

...Bomb Squad, Knights of the Round Table, Ninja, Dr Plague (https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ALeKk034K2o-c1fmOnt4L5iYMXd8mAsMbQ:1586821140253&q=Dr+Plague&tbm=isch&source=univ&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjQ74uzyeboAhWDzTgGHdEUDZkQsAR6BAgIEAE&biw=1264&bih=501), ICU, Survivor, ?,?, ...

...Ned Kelly, Motocross, Scuba Club...

[BobL]

Not exactly the most romantic night down the local French restaurant tho.
But I certainly get were your heading Bob.
Cheers Matt.

Dunno, my understanding is that latex, leather, masks and whips are highly desirable by some people?

BTW SWMBO is thinking of doing a mask with 3D embroidered/crocheted corona virus models handing off the front of the mask?

[NeilS]

Dunno, my understanding is that latex, leather, masks and whips are highly desirable by some people?

Geez, missed that obvious one (for some people!)

[FenceFurniture]

Today's spreadsheet attached.

Points to note

I do not trust the figures from China, Iran, Russia, or Brazil. Maybe not Japan either.
The Stans are now starting to appear in the 1000-2000 cases list
Algeria doesn't quite have 2000+ cases but their death rate is top of the chart at 15.8%
Spain, Italy and France are all slowing on both counts, but still have awful double digit death rates, as do UK, Belgium, Netherlands
Germany's death rate is <¼ of the other big Euro nations
Australia continues to slide down the cases list (-5 to 31) and is at or near the bottom in the other metrics
Europe has 46% of world cases but 66% of the deaths. Euro nations with 2000+ cases are 7% of world pop.
USA has 36% of world cases and 20% of the deaths. USA is 4% of world pop.
The entire rest of the world (89% of world pop) has 19% of world cases and 14% of the deaths.
If you don't have C19 then the safest place to be is probably right here (or NZ). IPM is relatively low at 250/mill, and if you do get it the death rate is one of the very lowest. All other countries with a lower IPM than Australia have a higher death rate, except Russia (and that will change).

[Tonyz]

been dreaming up money making ideas....
1 cheap pens engraved with Ruby Princess
2 coffee mugs...the same as above.
3. ditto teaspoons
I think I am on a winner, esp at next year's cruise ship markets

[Glider]

I think you might find Carnival management will be re-naming that vessel at the first opportunity.

mick

[Chesand]

I think you might find Carnival management will be re-naming that vessel at the first opportunity.

mick

Or scuttling it. The cruise industry will take a long time to recover, if ever.

[BobL]

I do not trust the figures from China, Iran, Russia, or Brazil. Maybe not Japan either.


Because of things like lack of openness/public accountability, insufficient testing, and the fact they are mostly early on in the game, any data from Africa, Central and South America, Asia (except for Singapore), Middle East, or Eastern Europe would have to be suss. In many of these places there's bugger all medical services and people already dying constantly for all sorts of reasons with not a medical person in sight let alone one that would be able to confirm a death as attributable to COVID19, so my guess is we'll never know what their real COVID19 death rates are. In the UK and the US additional people are dying in retirement homes and many of these are not being officially recorded as COVID19 deaths.

Doesn't really leave much of value to compare with does it?

[NeilS]

Today's spreadsheet attached.

Points to note

I do not trust the figures from China, Iran, Russia, or Brazil. Maybe not Japan either.
The Stans are now starting to appear in the 1000-2000 cases list
Algeria doesn't quite have 2000+ cases but their death rate is top of the chart at 15.8%
Spain, Italy and France are all slowing on both counts, but still have awful double digit death rates, as do UK, Belgium, Netherlands
Germany's death rate is <¼ of the other big Euro nations
Australia continues to slide down the cases list (-5 to 31) and is at or near the bottom in the other metrics
Europe has 46% of world cases but 66% of the deaths. Euro nations with 2000+ cases are 7% of world pop.
USA has 36% of world cases and 20% of the deaths. USA is 4% of world pop.
The entire rest of the world (89% of world pop) has 19% of world cases and 14% of the deaths.
If you don't have C19 then the safest place to be is probably right here (or NZ). IPM is relatively low at 250/mill, and if you do get it the death rate is one of the very lowest. All other countries with a lower IPM than Australia have a higher death rate, except Russia (and that will change).



Thanks for the spreadsheet and that analysis, Brett.

Everyone outside of China doubts their data. Browbeating the initial messenger didn't help there.

The following early release article has some data analysis that will be confirmed or otherwise when more data becomes available from other countries. Any fudging will start to show up then. It's a bit techo, but from what I can see the key reported findings are:



The doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days.
The (median) number of other people an individual infected was 5.7 (broad confidence level of 95%).
Results suggest: Active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.


"How contagious SARS-CoV-2 is in other countries remains to be seen."

Early Release - High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 - Volume 26, Number 7—July 2020 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article)

[GraemeCook]

It's not so much the east or the west that are the problems - it's the bits in the middle

https://www.canstar.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Melbourne-high-crime-suburbs-resized.jpg


Hell. Many years ago I lived in Parkville and Carlton. Never realised I was in "crime central".

[GraemeCook]

I think you might find Carnival management will be re-naming that vessel at the first opportunity.

mick



Do you think Carnival Group and its management will survive?

In January its share price was above US$50, but it tanked to $7.97 on 2 April, and the company must still service debt in excess of US$11.5 billion.

But Uncle Donald can be generous with taxpayer money to billionaire mates!

[FenceFurniture]

Because of things like lack of openness/public accountability, insufficient testing, and the fact they are mostly early on in the game, any data from Africa, Central and South America, Asia (except for Singapore), Middle East, or Eastern Europe would have to be suss. In many of these places there's bugger all medical services and people already dying constantly for all sorts of reasons with not a medical person in sight let alone one that would be able to confirm a death as attributable to COVID19, so my guess is we'll never know what their real COVID19 death rates are. Even in the US where people are dying in retirement homes some of these are not being officially recorded as COVID19 deaths.

Doesn't really leave much of value to compare with does it?Yeah, look the spreadsheet is just for a bit of a ball park. WRT "not trusting China, Iran, Russia, or Brazil." I reckon they are deliberately feeding us BS for the usual reasons. Other places that you mention will have inaccurate figures because of insufficient testing and so on, but not necessarily because of BS.

I was talking to my ISP a few days ago. That is Internode, and their call centre is in Cape Town (and I must say that they are extremely polite and very easy to understand, unlike most other call centres, who may be extremely polite). Antonio (a good SA name) had to do some things which took a while so we got chatting about C19. I was saying that I expected that once it took hold in Africa it would quite possibly spread like wildfire. He disagreed to some extent because "we've had lots of epidemics in Africa and there is a certain preparedness for them". I just hope he's right.

[Glider]

Do you think Carnival Group and its management will survive?

In January its share price was above US$50, but it tanked to $7.97 on 2 April, and the company must still service debt in excess of US$11.5 billion.

But Uncle Donald can be generous to billionaire mates!

I very much doubt they'll go broke. Their assets reported as at 2019 are USD45 billion, revenue USD20 billion and a gross profit percentage which would make any CEO drool. They are the biggest player in the cruise business with a stable including Carnival (obviously), P&O, Holland America, Costa, Cunard etc. BTW, they pay no tax, probably as a result of their interest bill.

Whoever's holding their notes would be crazy to call them in. In normal times, it's a very sound business and things will return to normal in time. The market has panicked, as it's wont to do. It would be good buying at current prices but don't expect a divvy for a while.

mick

[BobL]

Yeah, look the spreadsheet is just for a bit of a ball park. WRT "not trusting China, Iran, Russia, or Brazil." I reckon they are deliberately feeding us BS for the usual reasons. Other places that you mention will have inaccurate figures because of insufficient testing and so on, but not necessarily because of BS..

Ummm . . . not so sure about that there are still a lot of large population countries i do not trust, India, and Indonesia, and any of the "stans" are just some of examples as they have to continually be making themselves out being better than they are. The numbers for any country with (semi) despots in power also have to be queried, eg Venezuela, Saudi A, Turkey, even USA etc.

Wait until there is free money /AID going towards the problem and then we'll see the professional beggars come out of the wood work and claim more numbers than they actually have. Tragic really, we'll get played along like suckers - again.

[q9]

coming to you live from Japan...

It's weird here. Everyone knows about it, it has gotten VERY quiet over the last couple of days...but not really the kind of response I would have expected. They are pretty good at natural disasters, and have plenty of hospital beds, plus a huge manufacturing industry that is exceptionally good at getting things done...domestic logistics second to none.

We went through the TP craze about 2 weeks before you guys. It has basically settled down, now hand soap and sanitizer are the harder to find things. Not impossible, but some places temporarily sold out. No real issue with food or anything like that. Early run on rice and pasta to some extent, but that all blew over quite quickly. Schools are sort of closed, not much in the way of public events, even sakura time was pretty tame. It's weird but sort of normal as well. I went in to the city to get some bits and pieces and there is still people around, though much reduced. Police didn't seem bothered by people wandering around...

I have plenty of the essentials here. Gin, whisky, beer, Italian salami, so overall am quite content.

[Tccp123]

Well I still don't know anyone with the virus, nor do I know anyone who knows anyone with it! That's not surprising because here in Queensland only one in 20,000 people that you're likely to run into on the streets has it. And then you have to catch it from them! Pretty good odds I think. I don't wear a mask, I don't possess any hand sanitizer, and I don't have the virus. If it wasn't for the heavy handed police presence (who appear to be immune to it) I'd be out there on the streets!

But what's the next move? I can't see any alternative to herd immunity but it would take a brave person to suggest we go down that route...

Fortunately we will soon be able to see how that works because Indonesia has no choice. There is no way they can enforce social distancing, they can't afford the testing (even if it was available), and they don't have the health system to support a catastrophe.

[Glider]

Well I still don't know anyone with the virus, nor do I know anyone who knows anyone with it! That's not surprising because here in Queensland only one in 20,000 people that you're likely to run into on the streets has it. And then you have to catch it from them! Pretty good odds I think. I don't wear a mask, I don't possess any hand sanitizer, and I don't have the virus. If it wasn't for the heavy handed police presence (who appear to be immune to it) I'd be out there on the streets!

But what's the next move? I can't see any alternative to herd immunity but it would take a brave person to suggest we go down that route...

No comment needed here.

[Tccp123]

No comment needed here.

Then why did you even bother hitting reply?

[FenceFurniture]

I went looking for the "Do Not Feed the Troll" smilie, but it doesn't seem to exist any more. It would be particularly useful in this thread.

[Tccp123]

I went looking for the "Do Not Feed the Troll" smilie, but it doesn't seem to exist any more. It would be particularly useful in this thread.

Surely you can do better than that?

[Tccp123]

Surely you can do better than that?
Obviously not...

[Tccp123]

OK maybe time to go back to first principles, play the ball, not the man:

Do you have a problem with this statement?

Well I still don't know anyone with the virus, nor do I know anyone who knows anyone with it! That's not surprising because here in Queensland only one in 20,000 people that you're likely to run into on the streets has it.

How about this?

I don't wear a mask, I don't possess any hand sanitizer, and I don't have the virus.

And this?

I can't see any alternative to herd immunity but it would take a brave person to suggest we go down that route...

[woodPixel]

Because of things like lack of openness/public accountability, insufficient testing, and the fact they are mostly early on in the game, any data from Africa, Central and South America, Asia (except for Singapore), Middle East, or Eastern Europe would have to be suss. In many of these places there's bugger all medical services and people already dying constantly for all sorts of reasons with not a medical person in sight let alone one that would be able to confirm a death as attributable to COVID19, so my guess is we'll never know what their real COVID19 death rates are. In the UK and the US additional people are dying in retirement homes and many of these are not being officially recorded as COVID19 deaths.

Doesn't really leave much of value to compare with does it?


We curse our systems and politicians, BUT on this one they've really done well.

Makes me glad to be living here.

..
..
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Now to fix the environment.... :)

[Tccp123]

...and the best response I get is:


I went looking for the "Do Not Feed the Troll" smilie

Pathetic!

[Beardy]

Well I still don't know anyone with the virus, nor do I know anyone who knows anyone with it! That's not surprising because here in Queensland only one in 20,000 people that you're likely to run into on the streets has it. And then you have to catch it from them! Pretty good odds I think. I don't wear a mask, I don't possess any hand sanitizer, and I don't have the virus. If it wasn't for the heavy handed police presence (who appear to be immune to it) I'd be out there on the streets!

But what's the next move? I can't see any alternative to herd immunity but it would take a brave person to suggest we go down that route...

Fortunately we will soon be able to see how that works because Indonesia has no choice. There is no way they can enforce social distancing, they can't afford the testing (even if it was available), and they don't have the health system to support a catastrophe.

I understand where you are coming from but you could look at it this way. If we didn’t approach it like we have done your statement could well of been “I still don’t know anyone who hasn’t had the virus”

I get it about the impact on the economy but think it is a balancing act of keeping the economy running V an acceptable amount of infections that our healthcare system can manage. I think we need to accept there will be deaths and we need to maintain as normal a life as we can with a palatable death rate associated with it
I can’t see how it can go any other way unless there is a miracle cure

[Kuffy]

Pretty good odds I think. I don't wear a mask, I don't possess any hand sanitizer, and I don't have the virus. If it wasn't for the heavy handed police presence (who appear to be immune to it) I'd be out there on the streets!



I'm still out on the streets without a mask, sanitiser or the virus. With all of the restrictions in place, the only difference to my life is that I kinda wanted to play poker at the casino on Easter Sunday, but I couldn't because it is shut. The blokes I have spoken to about this at work are in the same boat. Basically no change to any part of their lives. What I am saying is that the restrictions could be a whole lot worse.

[woodPixel]

I can't see any alternative to herd immunity but it would take a brave person to suggest we go down that route...

When you mention herd immunity, does this mean "the ones that are left"?

I ask, as with immunisation, this is what I know H.I. as: "the vast % of the pop get the shot and the 1% who cant, for whatever reason, survive due to the social good of others."

If its the other way around, just letting the cull occur due to an individuals bad luck, a slight genetic difference that disadvantages some, or some other thing (such as ripping through the cities and passing the towns), then I don't think too much of "Herd Immunity" as a strategy.

So far, from what I know, only certain people have a genetic predisposition that seems to confer a slightly more favourable outcome.

I've also read that this foul beastie is now 3 discrete versions (on top of the dozens of minor variants)... so while one may be *immune* to a particular variant, the others will surely get ye!

This is one thing I'm leaving FIRMLY to the scientists.



Our only response, as good people, is to minimise damage/harm to those who cannot be protected and ensure everyone's treated fairly.

I'm seeing a lot of good in people over this. I am happy that people are being people again and deprogramming themselves of corporatism.

Here is an interesting read: Australians share great acts of kindness during the coronavirus crisis (https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-force-for-good-how-the-coronavirus-crisis-is-sweetening-our-collective-tune-20200227-p5452j.html)

[woodPixel]

Well I still don't know anyone with the virus, nor do I know anyone who knows anyone with it!

Ah! I've news!

Yes, my neighbour definitely was a plague victim.

As best as I can tell, everything was moved out over the weekend. I'm not sure if he went off to the farm.... or simply back to mums to recover. No news there..... but, somewhat interestingly, the unit went up for rent about 10 days ago. This area, until the plague, had 20 groups to a viewing for every property. It was obscene..... now... zip. Zilch. Nada. RE agent was pretty narky when she visited today. Maybe rents will lower soon :)

Also, more news, one of my daughters clients, was hospitalised Thursday. Coma. Still in it. Outlook looks grim.


So, while I dont know someone with it, I know of people with it.

I might add, that the whole "business closing and social distancing" thing here is 100% crap. The main road here is busier than ever. Shops are doing a ripping trade. Tradies and deliveries have increased FIVE FOLD. They are going gang-busters on the building sites.

[woodPixel]

For the data fiends, the local government has built this dashboard: Microsoft Power BI (https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiM2M4MGIxYTUtZjA1Yy00YTA4LTkwNDMtMDM4ZTdkMGZhN2ZiIiwidCI6ImI0NmMxOTA4LTAzMzQtNDIzNi1iOTc4LTU4NWVlODhlNDE5OSJ9)

It has four parts.

Its not bad.

My area is "Molonglo" (Its a lovely area. visit some time :) )

Data sources are listed on page 4.

[woodPixel]

This ...thing... keeps getting worse.

Apologies to be so spammy tonight (SWMBO is sick and in bed, so Im a tad bored!).

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2020/03/30/2020.03.25.006213.full.pdf

and a preview of the info:



"In this study, we selected 95 strains of SARS-CoV-2, isolated from 11 different countries...The results obtained...indicate high severity of SARS- CoV-2 ...with inherent capability of unique mutations and the evolving viral replication strategies to adapt to human hosts."


Development of universal vaccines against the novel SARS-CoV-2 holds utmost urgency...However...the underlying severity hidden in the SARS-CoV2 genomes is required to be fully understood.

We revealed unique single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)...within 10 viral isolates from USA. These ...[indicate] highly evolved strains of the novel SARS-CoV-2 circulating in the population of USA [more] than in other countries.

Furthermore, we found an isolate from USA...to carry frameshift mutation... Thus, we reason that the replicative machinery of the novel SARS-CoV-2 is fast evolving to evade host challenges and survival.

These mutations are needed to be considered, otherwise it will be difficult to develop effective treatment strategies.

...two proteins also...might confer selective advantage to the virus. Through the construction of SARS-CoV-2-human interactome, we further reveal multiple host proteins...which are manipulated...for mediating host immune mechanism for its survival.

In this study, we selected 95 strains of SARS-CoV-2, isolated from 11 different countries to understand the transmission patterns, evolution and pathogenesis of the virus.
The results obtained from the analyses indicate high severity of SARS- CoV-2 isolates with inherent capability of unique mutations and the evolving viral replication strategies to adapt to human hosts.

...two genes...found to...enhance the multiplication and facilitate growth of [the] virus inside the host.

Similarly, the S protein which helps in the entry of virus to the host cells...[was] found to be accelerated towards...the successful ability of enzyme to initiate the infection.
Another positive diversifying gene...protects the genetic material of virus from host immune responses...

Overall, the data represent that the growth and multiplication related genes are highly evolving.

Although the primary mode of infection is human to human transmission through close contact, which occurs via spraying of nasal droplets from the infected person, the primary site of infection and pathogenesis of SAR-CoV-2 is still not clear and under investigation.

The genomes of six isolates, specifically from USA, were found to harbour unique amino acid SNPs and showed amino acid substitutions in ORF1b protein and S-protein, while one of them also harboured a frameshift mutation. This is suggestive of the severity of the mutating viral genomes within the population of USA. These proteins are directly involved in formation of viral replication-transcription complexes (RTC).

Therefore, we argue that the novel SARS- CoV-2 has fast evolving replicative machinery and that it is urgent to consider these mutants in order to develop strategies for COVID19 treatment...these mutants...might confer selective advantage to evade host responsive mechanisms...It is predicted that major immune-pathogenicity mechanism by SARS-CoV-2 includes the host cell environment alteration by disintegration by signal transduction pathways and immunity evasion by several protection mechanisms. The mode of entry of this virus by S-proteins inside host cell is still unclear but it might be similar to SARS CoV-1 like viruses.

Lastly, we believe that COVID-19 is being transmitted from human to human, but as more data accumulate the picture will be more clear, as these virus spread beyond the imagination of scientific community.

[FenceFurniture]

At the White House briefing this morning (AEST) Trump really let rip on the press. The salient parts of it are covered in this article:
Wounded by media scrutiny, Trump turned a briefing into a presidential tantrum | US news | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/13/trump-coronavirus-meltdown-media-authority#maincontent)

There are 3 short vids in there, and it's the first and last that the most relevant. The second one just shows the bizarre PR reel that he got his staff to put together.

[woodPixel]

Well I still don't know anyone with the virus, nor do I know anyone who knows anyone with it! That's not surprising because here in Queensland only one in 20,000 people that you're likely to run into on the streets has it.

This ap, from our glorious government will probably send you into a full blown conniption!

It has a full time tracker built in :)

Just released....

Coronavirus Australia - Apps on Google Play (https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=au.gov.health.covid19)

[derekcohen]

Well I still don't know anyone with the virus, nor do I know anyone who knows anyone with it! ....

One of my friends died last week from Covid-19. In the UK.

Regards from Perth

Derek

[bueller]

So sorry to hear that mate.

[derekcohen]

So sorry to hear that mate.

Thanks Dan.


I'm still out on the streets without a mask, sanitiser or the virus.

Kuffy, the problem is that there are those who have the virus but do not show symptoms. They will infect others, who will develop symptoms.

Regards from Perth

Derek

[Sturdee]

Today's spreadsheet attached.

Similar to Bobl watching the Italian situation closely I have been reading the Dutch papers and news.

Today I found out that the Dutch statistics only cover the infection rate and death numbers of those tested for the virus, anyone dying that only saw a GP and not tested, was not counted.

Very few were tested because of lack of tests available so I do not trust the figures from Netherlands. I presume that is the same for a lot of countries.

Peter.