CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[BobL]

And yet, we make those trade-offs all the time, every day, with many decisions we make. We take risks with our lives all the time, be it to save time, make money, get some sort of enjoyment etc. For some reason a virus is far more scary though for most people - myself included. Rationally, I know that riding 90km to work and home most days on 100kph single lane roads with no shoulder, in rain, fog, dark etc is far far more likely to kill me than this virus - yet it doesn't stop me doing it.

Humm . . . . I understand what you are driving at BUT there are significant differences.
You riding your bike on a dangerous road is personal. Your death is unlikely to cause someone else to lose their life.
The moron drink driver is more applicable but even then they might take no more than a handful of people.
Carrying on an unnecessary job and not staying home is, in the current climate, much more likely to result in many more people dying.

Comparisons with motor vehicles are complicated, considerable economic and benefit comes about from using motor vehicles including saving many lives, fighting fires etc.

What does COVID give us?

COVID is more like the a war than motor vehicles.

When the bombs were falling everyone except the absolutely necessary workers like ackack gunners, wardens, and police headed for the air raid shelters. Do we think the Spaniards or Italians are today sitting around worrying about making sure everyone has an unnecessary job? By the time we have a few hundred deaths it may be too late to turn the ship around.

When the enemy artillery are decimating our troops at the front we don't return fire with every second of our smaller guns and make sure everyone has an unnecessary job - we give em back everything we've got.

It would be a different thing if those in unnecessary employment were set to work in more useful employment.

[NeilS]

latest estimates are that more than half of the most populous nation [ie Indonesia] per square km on earth are infected, about 150 million people.

Latest estimates by whom?

[Beardy]

I don’t know anything about the panel of medical experts that are advising our government but assume by some comments here and elsewhere that some think they don’t know what they are talking about?

[Bushmiller]

I don’t know anything about the panel of medical experts that are advising our government but assume by some comments here and elsewhere that some think they don’t know what they are talking about?

I don't really question the advice that is given. I question whether the actions taken by the government truly reflect the original advice that is given. My take is that the version we are fed is much modified at best and cherry picked at worst.

Regards
Paul

[Tccp123]

I don’t know anything about the panel of medical experts that are advising our government but assume by some comments here and elsewhere that some think they don’t know what they are talking about?

I don't think it's so much that, it's more when someone says "A panel of experts said..." or "Recent studies have shown..." it ain't necessarily so.

[Lappa]

You have to wonder when one day it’s 30 minutes only in Hairdressers then it’s OK to stay for hours as usual the next.
Did the experts recommend 30 minutes then the Govt over rule them or did the Govt say 30 minutes then the experts say no, carry on as usual?

Then there’s the case of the Govt order that all gyms must be closed, so a gym owner closes his gym to clients but starts making videos from his gym for his clients to use at home (with no clients at the gym) but the police close him down because gyms have to be closed.?

[Tccp123]

I don’t know anything about the panel of medical experts that are advising our government but assume by some comments here and elsewhere that some think they don’t know what they are talking about?


...and of course the other confronting fact is that governments don't always disclose everything that's going on (for all the right reasons). Some recent examples I've come across were the Australian government's reaction after the bombing of Darwin during WWII when 240 odd people were killed. They suppressed that news because in their opinion it would have had a negative effect on the war effort. Maybe, maybe not but the fact is they didn't tell the rest of the Australian people what had happened.

The other example that comes to mind is the number of casualties reported after the Rape of Nanking. Chinese history books report it as being more than 300,000. Japanese history books report it as being 45.

Don't believe everything you're told...

[Lappa]

Indonesia is not that bad according to worldometer

Indonesia Coronavirus: 1,046 Cases and 87 Deaths - Worldometer (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/indonesia/)

[doug3030]

Don't believe everything you're told...

Having worked in Military Intelligence for 20 years I have heaps of similar stories that I can't tell about what really happened and what the public was told. :rolleyes:

OK, cue the oxymoron jokes if you really feel you must - I've heard them all before. :wink:

[Tccp123]

Having worked in Military Intelligence for 20 years I have heaps of similar stories that I can't tell about what really happened and what the public was told. :rolleyes:

OK, cue the oxymoron jokes if you really feel you must - I've heard them all before. :wink:


Hahaha! Leading with the chin. I like that! :-)

[Tccp123]

Here's some good news to brighten up the mood:

Prince Andrew tests positive for Gonorrhoea – Cutting News (http://cuttingnews.co.uk/news/prince-andrew-tests-positive-for-gonorrhoea/)

[BobL]

I don’t know anything about the panel of medical experts that are advising our government but assume by some comments here and elsewhere that some think they don’t know what they are talking about?

Wearing my cynical hat, Trumpesque tactics are easy, you pick the panel of experts that will give you the advice you want to hear. If someone is difficult you just replace them. We never hear what all the suggestions are that RE discussed or how they are voted on. There's probably a bit of bully boy tactics and lots of selective data in there as well. It reminds me of one of my students who went to work for the cops as a crime data analyst/mapper. One of his weekly jobs was to mine crime data for anything positive for the ministers weekly cabinet meeting.

I'm somewhat unimpressed at the focus on OS travellers.
If the only people who get tested for COVID19 are persons who have been overseas, or people who have been in contact with people who have been overseas then is it surprising there'a little evidence for local infection? I see VIC is about to test every 5th person that goes to a COVID19 clinic irrespective of the above criteria. Why wasn't this done back at day dot?

[Tccp123]

Why wasn't this done back at day dot?

We all know the answer to that. No one knew where this was going...

[Lappa]

Maybe a lack of test kits?

[BobL]

Indonesia is not that bad according to worldometer
Indonesia Coronavirus: 1,046 Cases and 87 Deaths - Worldometer (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/indonesia/)

Their case numbers are almost meaningless as they have the lowest #tests/capita, 17 tests per million inhabitants, CF, AUS = 7442 and Iceland = 29k

FWIW USA has 1700, pretty poor really

See; COVID-19 testing - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing?fbclid=IwAR1-D2b2PORyzPQUoYaxa2j8rA83Zh8jvT1c0ZJ6YoI_7ZJMX7C_OE4FQNk)

[Lappa]

Australia’s pretty good re tests per million compared to most others.

[BobL]

Maybe a lack of test kits?

Yes it was but they wouldn't come out and say this - all they said we are directing tests to where they thought it would do the most good but they have almost ZERO tests on random local transmission. Hopefully these new tests will fix that. Epidemiologists say that reasonably reliable local infection rate could be obtained with about a 1% of randomly selected persons. That means they need about 250,000 tests done - HUGE job and it would use up a significant proportion of their new test kits.

The blood samples for the new tests could be randomly selected from the ~1,000,000 blood tests done every day. The test is simple enough to be done by any path nurse in any path lab. 50,000 per day, should be able to do it in a week? :D

[BobL]

Australia’s pretty good re tests per million compared to most others.

Yep we are doing well BUT almost all of the 190,000 tests are of OS travellers or persons known to have been in contact with OS travellers.

The new kits are going to be used initially for persons working in health and aged care. Make sense but you teachers can get to the back of the queue.

[Lappa]

So what - you think it would be responsible to come out at the beginning of this pandemic and announce to the Australian public “we don’t have enough kits to test people”.

if you have a limited supply of kits do you go out and randomly test people and use up the kits or wait for symptoms or test people who have been in contact?

We can’t have it both ways.

hindsight is a wonderful thing!

[FenceFurniture]

I don’t know anything about the panel of medical experts that are advising our government but assume by some comments here and elsewhere that some think they don’t know what they are talking about?I think the panel of experts largely (not bigly) know very much what they are talking about. They don't always fully agree, as we saw on Monday's Q&A, but they are highly educated in their fields. It's the dickhead pollies that don't like it and don't think that we can handle it....because we might get rid of them for telling us the truth. I think any shutdowns and restrictions should be on the authority of the experts in their fields, not people who are paid to bullsh!t us.

Rudd has his flaws - maybe plenty of them, but by crikey he was good in a crisis and he wasn't scared to call it as it was. We were the toast of the world in 2009-11 or so. ("How did they do that?")

[BobL]

So what - you think it would be responsible to come out at the beginning of this pandemic and announce to the Australian public “we don’t have enough kits to test people”.
YES, I expect Australian public officials that work for me and you to tell me the truth no matter how unpalatable it is.


if you have a limited supply of kits do you go out and randomly test people and use up the kits or wait for symptoms or test people who have been in contact?
We can’t have it both ways. hindsight is a wonderful thing!
Sure I know why they do that, However, I also expect them to work harder at getting more test kits or preferably making them here. Lets hope at minimum the government sets up an emergency viral test kit manufacturing service that can be activated at short notice - it will almost certainly already be in existing emergency plans for epidemics - but like most things they just failed to act on it. If they take some of the taxes wasted on border security and direct it towards pandemic control we'd be a lot better off.

Now let's hope the new test kits they're getting are not the same Chinese ones that have been sent to Spain, apparently they only have a 30% true success rate. What a cock up. . . . . .

[BobL]

So what - you think it would be responsible to come out at the beginning of this pandemic and announce to the Australian public “we don’t have enough kits to test people”.
YES, I expect Australian public officials that work for me and you to tell me the truth no matter how unpalatable it is.


if you have a limited supply of kits do you go out and randomly test people and use up the kits or wait for symptoms or test people who have been in contact?
We can’t have it both ways. hindsight is a wonderful thing!
Sure I know why they do that, However, I also expect them to work harder at getting more test kits or preferably making them here. Lets hope at minimum the government sets up an emergency viral test kit manufacturing service that can be activated at short notice - it will almost certainly already be in existing emergency plans for epidemics - but like most things they just failed to act on it. If they take some of the taxes wasted on border security and direct it towards pandemic control we'd be a lot better off.

Now let's hope the new test kits they're getting are not the same Chinese ones that have been sent to Spain, apparently they only have a 30% true success rate. What a cock up. . . . . .

[riverbuilder]

[QUOTE=NeilS;2179690]Latest estimates by whom?[/Coronavirus: Bali coronavirus cases set to explode, Indonesia could have 250,000 undetected cases (https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/indonesia-on-cusp-of-full-blown-coronavirus-disaster/news-story/155241464c102d00dd7e325bada0c393)


make of that what you will 🤷♂️

[FenceFurniture]

So what - you think it would be responsible to come out at the beginning of this pandemic and announce to the Australian public “we don’t have enough kits to test people”.Actually, it probably would be the responsible thing to do. Highly likely that people would taken it MUCH more seriously in terms of distancing etc. Morrison and Melanomia were still setting a terrible example by shaking hands with people long after they were told not to. The Trumpwit is STILL having Campaign Rallies press briefings with everybody on top of each other.

In other news today, the other idiot of the world, Boris Johnson, has just been announced Covid 19 +ve.

[FenceFurniture]

/Coronavirus: Bali coronavirus cases set to explode, Indonesia could have 250,000 undetected cases (https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/indonesia-on-cusp-of-full-blown-coronavirus-disaster/news-story/155241464c102d00dd7e325bada0c393)

make of that what you will 路♂️Well, what I make of that is that as it comes from news.com it's complete bullsh!t until verified by a source with at least an iota of credibility. Anyone who relies on Murdoch for the truth is a mushroom paying for the privilege. He ain't on your side. He's as bad or worse than the Trumpwit, and will say ANYTHING to get your $2.

[Lappa]

Fair enough - responsible it would have been but would it have made a difference to people isolating ?
I had mostly full classes up to Friday - only three chose not to come due to concerns.
The news had been out there some time re lack of kits, younger people being effected. We insisted on 1.5m, hand washing on entry and exit from the building, disposable gloves in the workshop but, when it came to a break, they all piled into the lifts and their cars.
No amount of talking, adverts etc etc seems to get across To these people. They are the ones that are going to keep this building.
Boris, the guy that got Brexit done, as he said he would (be it good or bad), and got voted in with one of the biggest majorities, seems to have acted decisively, for an idiot.

[FenceFurniture]

Abbott had a big majority too. That didn't make him smart either.

[Beardy]

There is a difference between telling the truth and withholding information. I think it is fair enough that certain information is withheld if it is in the general public’s best interest or to maintain decorum etc. It happens in all chains of commands

[ian]

source Coronavirus response highlights a divided policy approach between state and federal governments - Politics - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-27/coronavirus-has-pitted-health-policy-against-economics/12095248)

"Chief medical officer Brendan Murphy (who has been appointed secretary of the health department) ..."

make of this what you will, but for me it does raise the question of the man's independence.
Departmental Secretaries are very much "political" positions

[BobL]

There is a difference between telling the truth and withholding information. I think it is fair enough that certain information is withheld if it is in the general public’s best interest or to maintain decorum etc. It happens in all chains of commands

The problem is the repeated blurring between public interest and political interest. See also Ian's post above.

In case folks here think that our public servants and pollies got completely caught with their pants down over this epidemic this is most definitely not the case. Most government have a groups of experts that constantly watches for world wide risks on just about everything, wars, tsunamis, cyber attack, animal health, invasions by people and dogs in fishing boats, barriers to trade, alien invasion etc and epidemics. (FWIW this comes from my vet BIL who is an animal epidemiologist on the animal health group and for obvious reasons it overlaps with the human health crop )

The first signals would have been triggered way back even in early December by the epidemic watch group. Sure we got severely distracted by bushfires but what I would dearly like to know is the way official and government handled the time between "OK watch this space" and when it really kicked off, happened. Its not like it was 2-3 days but more like 2-3 months.

I just hope we all learn something from all but somehow I doubt it.

[BobL]

There is a difference between telling the truth and withholding information. I think it is fair enough that certain information is withheld if it is in the general public’s best interest or to maintain decorum etc. It happens in all chains of commandsThe problem is the repeated blurring between public interest and political interest. See also Ian's post above.In case folks here think that our public servants and pollies got completely caught with their pants down over this epidemic this is most definitely not the case. Most government have a groups of experts that constantly watches for world wide risks on just about everything, wars, tsunamis, cyber attack, animal health, invasions by people and dogs in fishing boats, barriers to trade, alien invasion etc and epidemics. (FWIW this comes from my vet BIL who is an animal epidemiologist on the animal health group and for obvious reasons it overlaps with the human health crop ) The first signals would have been triggered way back even in early December by the epidemic watch group. Sure we got severely distracted by bushfires but what I would dearly like to know is the way official and government handled the time between "OK watch this space" and when it really kicked off, happened. Its not like it was 2-3 days but more like 2-3 months. I just hope we all learn something from all but somehow I doubt it.

[Glider]

I just hope we all learn something from all but somehow I doubt it.

Quoted from Samuel Pepys Diary in 1664 writing about Bubonic Plague...

"On hearing ill rumour that Londoners may soon be urged into their lodgings by Her Majesty's men, I looked upon the street to see a gaggle of striplings making fair merry, and no doubt spreading the plague spread well about. Not a care had these rogues about the health of their elders!"

mick

[Tccp123]

470575 Spotted on the local FB page this morning. Can someone please explain to me again how this helps the economy...?

[Bushmiller]

470575 Spotted on the local FB page this morning. Can someone please explain to me again how this helps the economy...?

It is open to discussion as to whether the stimulus helps the poor or the not so poor more. We have to remember that the "intention" of any stimulus is both to encourage people to spend instead of becoming spendthrift recluses and to enable people without an income to live (just). The huge ethical question is "how" that money is spent and presumably it is this to which you allude.

From that excerpt you have to question whether the recipient should have been entitled to any benefit in the first place or whether they were just plain stupid in how they spent their money (ie: on something relatively extravagant). Having regard to the fact that they posted such a disgraceful admission on Facebook for all the world to see including us very judgemental Forum participants (sure as hell, if I had spent the money that way, I wouldn't be telling anybody), I would lean towards the second explanation; Unmitigated, moronic stupidity.

Regards
Paul

[Tccp123]

It is open to discussion as to whether the stimulus helps the poor or the not so poor more. We have to remember that the "intention" of any stimulus is both to encourage people to spend instead of becoming spendthrift recluses and to enable people without an income to live (just). The huge ethical question is "how" that money is spent and presumably it is this to which you allude.

From that excerpt you have to question whether the recipient should have been entitled to any benefit in the first place or whether they were just plain stupid in how they spent their money (ie: on something relatively extravagant). Having regard to the fact that they posted such a disgraceful admission on Facebook for all the world to see including us very judgemental Forum participants (sure as hell, if I had spent the money that way, I wouldn't be telling anybody), I would lean towards the second explanation; Unmitigated, moronic stupidity.

Regards
Paul


Without wanting to point the finger if you go back through some of the earlier entries in this long post you may find a similar entry. My point was (which you have eloquently elaborated on) that no one resents help for the needy but that it is very difficult to separate the needy from those who just say they're needy.

[Lappa]

Now don’t call me a ScoMo fan because I’m not, but Rudd only had to deal with a Global Financial Crisis. ScoMo has to deal with a Global Financisl Crisis AND a pandemic.
When talking to my sister in the US, re said when emergencies arise in the US, it’s normally the heads of the Departments that do the talking, maybe followed by a short address by the President . At the moment it’s all Trump and no heads of the departments.
Are we starting to see a similar trend over here?

[Lappa]

Regarding the FB GFC purchase - what should they have spent it on? Wasn’t the idea to give people money to spend in the shops?
As long as they spent it and didn’t hoard it, they were doing what it was designed to do IMO.

[GraemeCook]

.....Then there’s the case of the Govt order that all gyms must be closed, so a gym owner closes his gym to clients but starts making videos from his gym for his clients to use at home (with no clients at the gym) but the police close him down because gyms have to be closed.?


My first reaction was that this was just an urban myth, but then I noticed that you posted it, Lappa.

How credible is your source?

[forrestmount]

I agree Lappa

But also consider my GFC handout went straight onto my now paid off home loan, some may believe this was a wiser choice.

I now have more money to spend on more luxury items now.

So really the GFC handout will help the economy through this challenge.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro

[woodhutt]

One thing has become apparent from this pandemic is that no country has a monopoly on panic buyers, snake-oil salesmen or scam artists. My granddaughter called me yesterday and told me of the swathe of posts which have appeared on Social Media giving "medically warranted" advice on how to beat the virus. The one I particularly liked was to drink warm water and eat hot, spicy food to flush out the virus from your lungs. This showed a nice misunderstanding of the human internal plumbing arrangement. The latest disaster has been in Iran where the rumour spread (Social Media?) that drinking neat alcohol (methanol) would protect against the virus. It seems that some parents have been giving this to their children which has resulted in blindness and death. We also had our first report here in NZ of the low-life scammers who have been operating in the South Island claiming to be collecting money for the Red Cross. When you think of our doctors, nurses and other health care workers who are putting themselves at risk you realize the truth in the old saying that cream always rises to the top. Unfortunately, so does scum. :(( Pete

[Tccp123]

Regarding the FB GFC purchase - what should they have spent it on? Wasn’t the idea to give people money to spend in the shops?
As long as they spent it and didn’t hoard it, they were doing what it was designed to do IMO.

A loaf of bread would have benefited the economy IMO. That would have had a flow on effect right from the shopkeeper to the bakers to the delivery driver to the flour mill to the farmer to the local shopkeepers supporting the farmer and many people in between. Buying an imported espresso machine from Italy doesn't fit the criteria IMO. If you think it does then please include me in the handout because there's plenty of things I'd like to buy to stimulate the economy...

[GraemeCook]

[QUOTE=NeilS;2179690]Latest estimates by whom?[/Coronavirus: Bali coronavirus cases set to explode, Indonesia could have 250,000 undetected cases (https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/indonesia-on-cusp-of-full-blown-coronavirus-disaster/news-story/155241464c102d00dd7e325bada0c393)

make of that what you will 路♂️


Tabloid journalism at its worse. Just a beat up of unsubstantiated sensationalism.

No sources are quoted. The only "fact" is from an unattributed graph that shows a peak new infection rate of 14 cases per day. Extrapolating 14 to "hundreds of millions" needs some rather rubbery logic.

[Lappa]

My first reaction was that this was just an urban myth, but then I noticed that you posted it, Lappa.

How credible is your source?

Online yesterday and in the newspaper today. Also a statement from the police.

[Tccp123]

I agree Lappa

But also consider my GFC handout went straight onto my now paid off home loan, some may believe this was a wiser choice.

I now have more money to spend on more luxury items now.

So really the GFC handout will help the economy through this challenge.



Glad to see my taxes were put to good use. I had to pay off my own mortgage. (and I didn't get the handout) ��

[Lappa]

A loaf of bread would have benefited the economy IMO. That would have had a flow on effect right from the shopkeeper to the bakers to the delivery driver to the flour mill to the farmer to the local shopkeepers supporting the farmer and many people in between. Buying an imported espresso machine from Italy doesn't fit the criteria IMO. If you think it does then please include me in the handout because there's plenty of things I'd like to buy to stimulate the economy...

Your example is one way of distributing the Stimulus but in the coffee machine example the shop they bought the coffee machine from probably employed a person whose wages could be paid because people suddenly could afford an extravagant coffee machine. So the employee or employer then went and spent some of his/her wages on a loaf of bread that helped the baker, the Miller, the truck driver and the farmer who grew the wheat.
In other words, it got there in the end.

[Tccp123]

Your example is one way of distributing the Stimulus but in the coffee machine example the shop they bought the coffee machine from probably employed a person whose wages could be paid because people suddenly could afford an extravagant coffee machine. So the employee or employer then went and spent some of his/her wages on a loaf of bread that helped the baker, the Miller, the truck driver and the farmer who grew the wheat.
In other words, it got there in the end.


Following that logic then paying off your mortgage is an equally valid response. Then why not give it to everyone? Surely it makes no difference who spends the money as long as it's spent?

[doug3030]

Surely it makes no difference who spends the money as long as it's spent?

I am neither rich nor poor, just somewhere reasonably comfortable in the middle of it all. I would get by without any stimulus payments.

But I happen to be in a group which will each receive 2 x $750 stimulus payments. Although I do not need them I can surely use them and my hand will not shake in the slightest when I get them.

Of course I will spend it responsibly. It is the right thing to do.

[Lappa]

Following that logic then paying off your mortgage is an equally valid response. Then why not give it to everyone? Surely it makes no difference who spends the money as long as it's spent?
All the above references, before Doug’s, I believe are to the stimulus package brought out by Rudd due to the GFC. Anyone who had filed a tax return for the previous year, plus pensioners etc got it, from my recollection.
Why is this new one from ScoMo, appears to be aimed at those on Govt support - I don’t have a definite answer, I can only speculate, as can anyone else that was not privy to the papers and cabinet discussions.

[FenceFurniture]

Following that logic then paying off your mortgage is an equally valid response. Then why not give it to everyone? Surely it makes no difference who spends the money as long as it's spent?You may be on the cusp of understanding the concept. The same thing has been said a number of times now in this thread - money needs to circulate through the ENTIRE economy - even to sex workers, to cite something of an extreme!

It is not just essential items that keep the economy running. It is everything. There is no good reason why a person who sells luxury goods should be more financially damaged than anyone else. If they are then they won't be around for you to make those purchases that you desire. ANd they won't have their own income to spend on whatever they need or want to, like the oft-mentioned loaf of bread. Should they only purchase basic bread or is it allowable to purchase artisan bread?

I think we need a lot less pontificating about how people spend their money. It is, after all, their choice. As an example, there would be many people who would say "Oh poor you!" when they heard someone complaining about not being able to have their usual weekly eat-out meal these days. Eating out once a week isn't exactly high-brow, but there are many, many people who just can't (previous to this situation).

[Tccp123]

I think you're right. It's finally starting to dawn on me. And when the money runs out just print some more!!

[FenceFurniture]

Rudd only had to deal with a Global Financial Crisis. ScoMo has to deal with a Global Financisl Crisis AND a pandemicTrue, but the GFC was very successfully dealt with, albeit with some wastage. It's finalised.

The current situation is still very much a work in progress, and it remains to be seen how well it is dealt with. Certainly the way the fires were dealt with at a Federal level wasn't well done. Perhaps SmirKo has learnt a little something from that. Also, the fires were ultimately dealt with by Mother Nature. Covid 19 won't be.

[Lappa]

I think you're right. It's finally starting to dawn on me. And when the money runs out just print some more!!

:D

now your sounding like Trumpy - what’s another trillion or two:oo:

[Tccp123]

:D

now your sounding like Trumpy - what’s another trillion or two:oo:


Yes it's a very simplistic concept and a large proportion of the population believes that's how it works :-)

[DomAU]

Following that logic then paying off your mortgage is an equally valid response. Then why not give it to everyone? Surely it makes no difference who spends the money as long as it's spent?

I think you are exactly right. I think that everyone should get exactly the same payment - that would be by far the most equitable way to do it. Just give everyone the exact same payment that is theoretically sufficient to stop anyone starving to death and maintaining a roof over their heads (not paying their mortgage but enough to pay a median rent). We will all be paying for the stimulus so it seems fair to me that everyone should benefit. Otherwise it's abstract wealth distribution and therefore inherently unfair and inequitable.

Cheers, Dom

[Kuffy]

But if they give me the money, I'll just put it into the stock market. That's probably good for future me, but does nothing for current Australia. To do the "right" thing for the Australian economy would be to buy something I wasn't already going to buy. Apart from food and utilities, what else is there to buy?

[Tccp123]

But if they give me the money, I'll just put it into the stock market. That's probably good for future me, but does nothing for current Australia. To do the "right" thing for the Australian economy would be to buy something I wasn't already going to buy. Apart from food and utilities, what else is there to buy?


OK no problem. Give it to everybody except Kuffy :)

[DomAU]

But if they give me the money, I'll just put it into the stock market. That's probably good for future me, but does nothing for current Australia. To do the "right" thing for the Australian economy would be to buy something I wasn't already going to buy. Apart from food and utilities, what else is there to buy?

Because it's a supply shock not a demand one I don't think trying to stimualte the economy is the right way to look at it. It doesnt matter how much money you print - people can't work or produce. This is about allowing people to service debt - keep money flowing to prevent a collapse in the debt market - and also to stop people starving to death/gaining minimum living standards.

[DomAU]

Because it's a supply shock not a demand one I don't think trying to stimualte the economy is the right way to look at it. It doesnt matter how much money you print - people can't work or produce. This is about allowing people to service debt - keep money flowing to prevent a collapse in the debt market - and also to stop people starving to death/gaining minimum living standards.

And my logic is - rather than steal money from people who have savings to facilitate that, and stealing from future taxpayers, they should distribute an equal amount of free cash to at least make it fair. Some will gain the ability to maintain min standards, others will benefit from future spending/savings/investment returns - because otherwise one group just gets wacked with inflation and higher taxes as a thankyou for bailing out many people who have lived beyond their means and irresponsibly taken on too much debt - not saying all, but definitely many.

[woodPixel]

With government allowances, this argument is too old. It has been shown a thousand times over in studies that every dollar spent on welfare improves the economy by many multiples.

Any argument otherwise is simply political ideology. Or sour grapes.

Taking TCCP123's comments (arbitrarily chosen, as they are short and succinct) it seems that people should be given an official/approved list of what any money may be spend on?

Lettuce? Cucumbers? Books?

Cigarettes...alcohol... car repairs... new cutlery...

Makes no difference.

If anything, spending on the grog is the best for the government as : 1: its made here, generally 2: its high in taxes, so the government gets it back almost instantly 3: by letting the Peons buy this they are shortening their lives, so 4: less pension to pay!

If we are going to argue about economics, the best one to have is corporate welfare, tax minimisation and moral hazard!

Corporatism is the lethal toxin of our society. Not the peasants. The peasants will do as they always do. They are simple, pay their taxes and die. Corporations are the untouchable and ravenous machines of environmental death we should really be concerned about.

Let me find a graphic of the last US bailout. People get NOTHING. Corporations take the lion share. Rich get richer.



edit 1 - here is one of the graphics. The other Im trying to find is much better.

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edit 2 - here it is

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[BobL]

Went to the park with dogs again this morning. We sat in a quiet corner on camping chairs and had breakfast. I threw ball for dogs. About the same number as usual of people on cycleway/footpath about 150 m away from us that runs alongside Swan River.

About 100m away there was an outdoor exercise class going on. I counted 13 in the first lass and 9 in the second and they looked like they were observing >5m separation.

We got an on-line delivery of groceries yesterday but there were about 5 items missing/unavailable so we decide to go to Spud Shed at shopping centre about 5km from our place to see if we could get some of these items. We scored a parking spot next to the disabled parking bays just outside one of the main doors of the centre. SWMBO donned mask and gloves and went in and did the shopping. I stayed in car with dogs and decided to do a mask/glove survey.

While waiting I counted about 600 people exiting the doors.

38 (6%) were wearing masks (I know masks offer little protection - to me its a sign of how serious people are about what is going on)
13 (2%) were wearing gloves (that includes SWMBO and the trolley collection guy) I'd rate gloves significantly more useful than masks - the feeltiest thing they're probably handling is the shopping trolley.

About half the shoppers were in groups of two or more. Mum/Dad plus a couple of kids, gaggles of seniors/middle ages plus a kid or two, many couples.
About 1/3rd were seniors, most were couples.
Most of the mask/glove wearers were asians

A few portraits:
A guy in gloves and mask comes out to his vehicle and carefully places shopping in car.
Gets into car takes gloves off and chucks them out window
Santises his hands and drives off.

A senior walking along blows his nose copiously into a hanky and gets something on his hands and then wipes his hands on his daks.

A senior was using plastic bags as gloves.

Based on all this I'd say we are a looooonnnnggg way from the vast majority of these folks taking COVID19 seriously.

[Tccp123]

It won't work. Give everyone the money and let them make their own choices. If they choose a coffee hit first thing in the morning on their $1,400 Italian espresso machine over a loaf of bread then that's their choice. Or they can make a mortgage payment if they wish. But heaven help them if they then come cap in hand asking for another handout!

[Kuffy]

OK, you guys have convinced me. I now require the 2 x $750 payments because the casino will eventually re-open and I do enjoy freerolling (not to be confused with freeballing!). :D

[forrestmount]

Glad to see my taxes were put to good use. I had to pay off my own mortgage. (and I didn't get the handout) ��



Thank you for your contribution, my memory may be wrong but I thought anyone that lodged a tax return the previous year got paid money.

FYI I pay a substantial amount of money in tax, I don’t judge how the money is spent. I actually enjoy living in a social that allows me to walk outside without fear for my personal safety.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro

[DomAU]

I agree with the last part. The government shouldn't be bailing out the corporates, including the banks. I agree that the government shouldn't be handing out money to anyone. I also believe that the market should determe the interest rate - not be manipulated by central banks - which is the cause of most of the mess we are in.

[Simplicity]

Just some light relief

Warning lots of rude words.
Well actually just one starting with F.


Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/100004795774762/posts/1452687228234456?sfns=mo)

Cheers Matt.


Self awareness lol - Matthew Phillips | Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/540614241/posts/10157995981649242?sfns=mo)

[NeilS]

Latest estimates by whom?[/Coronavirus: Bali coronavirus cases set to explode, Indonesia could have 250,000 undetected cases (https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/indonesia-on-cusp-of-full-blown-coronavirus-disaster/news-story/155241464c102d00dd7e325bada0c393)


make of that what you will 路♂️

What I make of that is that the article failed to include the qualifying words, "worst-case scenario" or other highly relevant caveats.

viz: Assoc Professor Flasche at School of Tropical Medicine in London said "it was difficult to predict how the spread of coronavirus would escalate in Indonesia in the coming weeks, without knowing what measures were put in place to contain the virus".

When asked about the possibility of 1 million cases in Indonesia by the end of April, he said given the size of Indonesia's population it "may make a semi-reasonable, worst-case scenario". Source (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-23/why-is-indonesia-coronavirus-death-rate-highest-in-world/12079040).

There are too many flaws in the article to have any credence, like stating that "modelling by Indonesian researchers suggests half the nation’s 275 million people could be infected in the next few months", without citing where that came or any qualification that might have been included by the researchers, then using the interview by ABC journalists with Prof Flasche to give those 'estimates' validity, yet Flasche gives a worst-case scenario of 1m by the end of April and also a caveat about what measures Indonesia might put in place to contain the virus.

The Indonesians are not lab rats that have no agency in this crisis. Although late to respond, they will and in their own fashion.

I agree with Graeme, lazy and shoddy 'so-called' journalism! Reading her profile has said it all for me... "She is a news reporter for news.com.au but also has a penchant for crime and the bizarre"!

There is no doubt that Indonesia does have major challenges ahead, but the last thing they need is this type of sensationalism from the south. If News would like to focus on a near neighbour they can stop fretting over a popular tourist destination for Australians, like Bali, and turn their attention to PNG for which we have some responsibility. The challenges there will be a magnitude more.

[BobL]

Just some light relief

Warning lots of rude words.
Well actually just one starting with F.


Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/100004795774762/posts/1452687228234456?sfns=mo)

Cheers Matt.


Ah . . . . linka, she's notta working'a

[Lappa]

There’s some clever people out there

YouTube (https://youtu.be/lr_tEdQvFcc)

[FenceFurniture]

Ah . . . . linka, she's notta working'aToo many video calls to the old country recently Bob?

[Lappa]

I agree with the last part. The government shouldn't be bailing out the corporates, including the banks. I agree that the government shouldn't be handing out money to anyone. I also believe that the market should determe the interest rate - not be manipulated by central banks - which is the cause of most of the mess we are in.

Is that a change of mind or does the “anyone” above mean other that individuals ?

In Post #758 you say all should get a handout .

Not criticising, just interested in the discussion on handouts and a range of views.

I don’t get it now as I’m working but if I’d retired two years ago I would be getting it even though I’d be on similar monies.

[FenceFurniture]

But heaven help them if they then come cap in hand asking for another handout!Who has asked for a handout?

[Bushmiller]

Ah . . . . linka, she's notta working'a

Umm. Nor for me.

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

Who has asked for a handout?


Sounds like a Ferengi Rule of Acquisition... #213 Never turn down a handout.

[ian]

But if they give me the money, I'll just put it into the stock market. That's probably good for future me, but does nothing for current Australia. To do the "right" thing for the Australian economy would be to buy something I wasn't already going to buy. Apart from food and utilities, what else is there to buy?
so, from this I can conclude that you work for the Government in an occupation deemed in the current environment "essential".

yes, or no?

If no, and I seem to recall you mentioning in the past week that you work for a truss manufacturer, what will you do when the economy tanks and no houses are being built? What will your weekly wage be in 4-6 week's time when the coronavirus unemployment peak hits? Will you be able to afford your mortgage (or rent) along with food and utilities?
People can't secure a mortgage to buy a new house when they are "temporarily unemployed" or on reduced hours and at current projections that will be about 50% of the entire workforce.

[Simplicity]

Ah . . . . linka, she's notta working'a

Just re loaded

Cheers Matt.

[Beardy]

It is open to discussion as to whether the stimulus helps the poor or the not so poor more. We have to remember that the "intention" of any stimulus is both to encourage people to spend instead of becoming spendthrift recluses and to enable people without an income to live (just). The huge ethical question is "how" that money is spent and presumably it is this to which you allude.

From that excerpt you have to question whether the recipient should have been entitled to any benefit in the first place or whether they were just plain stupid in how they spent their money (ie: on something relatively extravagant). Having regard to the fact that they posted such a disgraceful admission on Facebook for all the world to see including us very judgemental Forum participants (sure as hell, if I had spent the money that way, I wouldn't be telling anybody), I would lean towards the second explanation; Unmitigated, moronic stupidity.

Regards
Paul

My mate has gaming and prize machines in clubs, pubs, milk bars etc and he said his takings went up 50% for two weeks after the last cash stimulus handout

[Simplicity]

Just popping out to the shops honey,
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200328/be91c072b53a63459c94d65554543ca4.jpg

Cheers Matt.

[FenceFurniture]

My mate has gaming and prize machines in clubs, pubs, milk bars etc and he said his takings went up 50% for two weeks after the last cash stimulus handoutI don't think I'd read a whole lot into that because there are people who will always spend money on that sort of thing, but I don't think they are all that big a percentage of the population. And just because they blow it on slot machines doesn't mean the stimulus won't work in the broader community.

[BobL]

Nice little seething hot bed of infection going on here
DTs Maralago resort is just above where it says Miami in Florida - nice little hot spot developing

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[ian]

Thank you for your contribution, my memory may be wrong but I thought anyone that lodged a tax return the previous year got paid money.
Forrest, I think that your memory might be faulty.
My memory is that Rudd's "cash splash" was based on welfare recipients and those tax payers who lodged a tax return showing taxable earnings less than some amount.
and it didn't matter when the matter when the return was lodged -- I recall a case where a tax payer received the "splash" several years after it was legislated.


after a bit of Googling source: The RD Guide To The 2009 Australian Government Stimulus Package Handouts - Insurance Articles - Rate Detective (https://www.ratedetective.com.au/articles/insurance/rd-aricle-2009-australian-government-stimulus-package-handouts/)

How much will you get [from the Rudd "cash splash"]?
Depending on what your total income from all sources was last year [2007-2008 tax return]. The payment will be:


$900 if your taxable income is up to and including $80,000
$600 if your taxable income is between $80,001 and $90,000, and
$250 if your taxable income is between $90,001 and $100,000.

If you earned more than $100,000 last year you won't receive a benefit payment.

[FenceFurniture]

If anything, spending on the grog is the best for the government as : 1: its made here, generally 2: its high in taxes, so the government gets it back almost instantly 3: by letting the Peons buy this they are shortening their lives, so 4: less pension to pay!Well, not quite WP. Those that are shortening their lives can very often become a huge medical burden in the years before they are fully pickled. Even more so for smokers, and cigarettes are mostly made within Oz too.

[GraemeCook]

My mate has gaming and prize machines in clubs, pubs, milk bars etc and he said his takings went up 50% for two weeks after the last cash stimulus handout


Pubs and clubs are all closed. What's a milk bar?

[Beardy]

I don't think I'd read a whole lot into that because there are people who will always spend money on that sort of thing, but I don't think they are all that big a percentage of the population. And just because they blow it on slot machines doesn't mean the stimulus won't work in the broader community.

Yes the stimulus worked fine for him and Jerry Harvey :) along with many others but that is what they intended to happen anyway.

[BobL]

Well, not quite WP. Those that are shortening their lives can very often become a huge medical burden in the years before they are fully pickled. Even more so for smokers, and cigarettes are mostly made within Oz too.

Not to mention, motor vehicle accidents, domestic and other violence, including the cost of policing all this.

[forrestmount]

Forrest, I think that your memory might be faulty.
My memory is that Rudd's "cash splash" was based on welfare recipients and those tax payers who lodged a tax return showing taxable earnings less than some amount.
and it didn't matter when the matter when the return was lodged -- I recall a case where a tax payer received the "splash" several years after it was legislated.


after a bit of Googling source: The RD Guide To The 2009 Australian Government Stimulus Package Handouts - Insurance Articles - Rate Detective (https://www.ratedetective.com.au/articles/insurance/rd-aricle-2009-australian-government-stimulus-package-handouts/)

How much will you get [from the Rudd "cash splash"]?
Depending on what your total income from all sources was last year [2007-2008 tax return]. The payment will be:


$900 if your taxable income is up to and including $80,000
$600 if your taxable income is between $80,001 and $90,000, and
$250 if your taxable income is between $90,001 and $100,000.

If you earned more than $100,000 last year you won't receive a benefit payment.

I was only 26 and only working the one job back then most definitely not earning over 100k.


Wait up you said my memory might be faulty [emoji46]. This could be harder to fix than most things...

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro

[Beardy]

Pubs and clubs are all closed. What's a milk bar?

They are those places that don’t sell milk anymore :U

[BobL]

Things change fast in the testing space.
Here the list ranked in terms of most numbers of tests

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But there's a BIG difference between #tests and tests per capita.
On this list USA and Russia are last, whereas Korea/Spain/AUS are at the top

Suggest taking the Chinese and Russian numbers with significant pinches of Salt.
We're lucky we're still at 17 positive cases/capita - still have a chance if social distancing can be enforced.

[doug3030]

And just because they blow it on slot machines doesn't mean the stimulus won't work in the broader community.

I bet all the illegal drug dealers will be all stocked up and ready to capitalise on the windfall. No taxes going back to the government on the first transaction in that chain.

[FenceFurniture]

Suggest taking the Chinese and Russian numbers with significant pinches of Salt. And even the USA figures, given that many of their tests were useless. Wwho knows how many false -ves are in there.

[FenceFurniture]

This is just one reason why Boris Johnson is an idiot (and a dangerous one too, just like Trump):

from a few weeks ago:
"I’m shaking hands continuously. I was at a hospital the other night where there were actually some Coronavirus patients & I shook hands with everybody. People can make up their own mind but I think it’s very important to keep shaking hands."

Wonder what he thinks now.

[Kuffy]

so, from this I can conclude that you work for the Government in an occupation deemed in the current environment "essential".

yes, or no?

If no, and I seem to recall you mentioning in the past week that you work for a truss manufacturer, what will you do when the economy tanks and no houses are being built? What will your weekly wage be in 4-6 week's time when the coronavirus unemployment peak hits? Will you be able to afford your mortgage (or rent) along with food and utilities?
People can't secure a mortgage to buy a new house when they are "temporarily unemployed" or on reduced hours and at current projections that will be about 50% of the entire workforce.

I don't work for the government. I currently work building roof trusses. I won't speculate as to what my wage will be in 4-6 weeks time because it would be a blind guess at this point. So long as it is minimum wage, then I'll be no worse off. I guess that's one of the perks of actually working for SFA

[GraemeCook]

.....We're lucky we're still at 17 positive cases/capita - still have a chance if social distancing can be enforced.


I am becoming increasingly optimistic, Bob, and the indications are that policies are starting to work. However, all of us, must be increasingly vigilant to ensure the measures are fully enforced and retained long enough not to be self defeating.

Those idiots photographed in most newspapers this morning, especially The Australian, are a serious worry. Also a worry is the editorial stance of The Australian which increasingly seems to be arguing the case for business over human lives.

Here are the official Australian government figures for daily new cases of the virus. Of critical importance is that there has been no growth in daily new cases for four days - ie the exponential growth rate in infections has been stalled.

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And the same figures from Worldometers. I have absolutely no idea why there is a disparity in the figures. Worldometers say that they source data from host government ind international agencies, but do not actually identify sources.

470592[Source:































[Source: Australia Coronavirus: 3,573 Cases and 14 Deaths - Worldometer (http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/) ]

[Tccp123]

My mate has gaming and prize machines in clubs, pubs, milk bars etc and he said his takings went up 50% for two weeks after the last cash stimulus handout


Thank you! I rest my case your honour!

[FenceFurniture]

Thank you! I rest my case your honour!I don't think it is clear what your case is, apart from not giving stimulus payments for purposes or goods you don't approve of, or to people you don't approve of.

[FenceFurniture]

Some statistics that I think would be useful for comparing Australia to the rest of the world would be how many people returned here from overseas (and where from) in the last 6 weeks in comparison to other countries who have a lot of travellers. Expressed per capita in relation to infections could tell a particular story.

[BobL]

I have absolutely no idea why there is a disparity in the figures. Worldometers say that they source data from host government ind international agencies, but do not actually identify sources.

Even on the same day it depends on exactly when the data is sampled by the webpages displaying the data as the government data doesn't always come in from all the states/regions at the same time, so some data falls on one day and some fall across onto another.
EG
DATA source A might have the latest data for 4 of the 5 states
DATA Source B might have only the latest data from 2 of the 5 states.
This is something else they all need to agree on ie every country will publish its daily data at a specific world time.

[BobL]

I agree the US data is suss.


Some statistics that I think would be useful for comparing Australia to the rest of the world would be how many people returned here from overseas (and where from) in the last 6 weeks in comparison to other countries who have a lot of travellers. Expressed per capita in relation to infections could tell a particular story.

Because of the Schengen agreement in Europe that would have been impossible to determine until borders were closed and even now I doubt they are recording traveller origins.

[Tccp123]

A bit of history...

This week economist John Quiggin lamented the fact that Kevin Rudd (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/aug/26/rudd-stimulus-cuts) doesn’t get more credit for economic management, given the fact that Australia came through the global financial crisis in solid shape and has avoided a recession. This is a common source of puzzlement amongst some, but let me solve this apparent conundrum.
The first thing to note is that Rudd’s economic management did not, in fact, save Australia from the fate that befell other countries. European countries have not been in crisis because they did not have him at the helm; the US did not suffer an economic disaster because it wanted for a Wayne Swan when the crisis hit. Greece and other countries are not in economic catastrophe mode simply because they failed to send out $900 cheques to their citizens (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/5341306/Australians-get-900-cheques-from-government-to-boost-spending.html).
The simple fact is that all of these countries went into the disaster-zone in 2008 because when the global financial crisis hurricane hit, they had high government debt and high budget deficits, which made them extremely vulnerable to adverse shocks. Had any one of these countries’ governments faced the crisis with zero government debt and consistent budget surpluses, they would have been considered pillars of strength rather than sources of weakness. What those European countries wanted for, in other words, was Australian treasurer Peter Costello running their budgets in the long lead-up to 2008.
Australia hit the 2008 crisis in rude financial health: debt-free, growing strongly with significant assets and running surplus budgets. It is these robust foundations, along with very favourable terms of trade, which guaranteed that Australia would survive the crisis in very good shape.
Just prior to the crisis, reserve bank governor Glenn Stevens drew attention to the magnificent financial position built up over more than a decade by Costello, saying that “the capacity to respond, if need be, to developments in the future is virtually without peer (http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2008/sp-gov-150508.html).” Little did he know at the time, but three months later that position of economic strength would be tested in the most dramatic fashion.
The pre-existing strength of the Australian government’s finances were to prove a bulwark against the economic storm and investors, businesspeople, consumers and financial markets were greatly reassured by the strength of the Australian economy. On top of those firm foundations, each political party in Australia was in the wonderful position of being able to offer stimulus packages drawing on these sound finances. People will debate the merits of the respective stimulus packages, but with its strong terms of trade, Australia was foreordained to outperform other countries once the storm hit, and foreordained to receive accolades from the International Monetary Fund for doing so.
The most important lesson about the global financial crisis is not about what happened after it hit but in what happened in the lead-up, and this can be summarised simply: don’t put your country into a zone of financial vulnerability.
How did so many leaders allow their countries to drift into that zone? They tried to explain that rising debt levels were not unreasonable compared to other countries. When quizzed about growing budget deficits in the UK, for example, chancellor of the exchequer Gordon Brown would always point out that Britain’s government debt and deficit levels were reasonable when one looked at other comparable countries. “Net debt is now 47% of national income in France, 47% in America, in Germany 62%, in Japan 83% and in Italy over 100% – but this year in Britain 36.4%,” Brown said in 2006 (https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2006/mar/22/budget2006.budget) as he revealed yet another gradual economic deterioration.
Of course, Brown’s reassuring words masked a position of disastrous weakness, and this weakness only became evident when the crisis sent the British economy into a tailspin from which it has still not recovered.
The next time you hear mollifying words from Rudd that our rising debt levels are at reasonable levels compared to other countries, think about how Britons were lulled into the financial danger zone and ask yourself: are we on the same trajectory?

[Lappa]

There are some excellent figures showing number of travellers send origins for 2019. Unfortunately the only stats. for 2020 are for January (published 16/3/2020) but they only show numbers, not origin.

Came across this from a report in the Daily Telegraph today.

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[doug3030]

Well said Tccp123

Those who can't see that probably run their own finances the same way a poorly run country runs theirs - with all the credit cards and loans maxxed out.