CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[FenceFurniture]

The death toll in Oz still stands at 7, even though the number of infections is doubling every 3 days. We have already established that death rate figures are complete bollocks because of the numerous flaws in testing. But a toll of 7 would seem to be quite outstanding wouldn't it? (although NZ has 0)

Why does our brains trust think that is the case, and is likely to spike quite soon?

[woodPixel]

People's stupidity is difficult to scientifically measure.

These blokes however, have had enough....

VIDEO ===> Tuckbot (https://tuckbot.tv/#/watch/fn6i63)


Many different dialects in this one. Its amazing how dissimilar Italian can be.

[Glider]

The death toll in Oz still stands at 7, even though the number of infections is doubling every 3 days. We have already established that death rate figures are complete bollocks because of the numerous flaws in testing. But a toll of 7 would seem to be quite outstanding wouldn't it? (although NZ has 0)

Why does our brains trust think that is the case, and is likely to spike quite soon?

Not sure about the brains trust thing Brett but for what it's worth...On last night's Q&A, Prof. Paul Kelly (ANU) said that the average age of the 7 deceased was 86 and the youngest 77. Given that the infection rate is currently doubling every three days, it's inevitable that the mortality rate will increase until the latest brakes kick in, hopefully at a lesser rate. I suppose this'll take a couple of weeks due to the incubation period. I think it was Dr Norman Swan who predicted >50,000 infections by 10 April.

The predicted demand for hospital beds raises an ethical dilemma for medicos whose job it will be to triage the patients. At one end of the argument some say it will result in compulsory euthanasia and the others claim it's pure pragmatism in the absence of alternatives.

I'm fascinated by the changes in attitudes. The neo-conservatives are suddenly looking to their smaller governments for help rather than letting the market take care of everything and the climate deniers are all hanging onto the words of experts. I wonder if they've realised it yet.

mick

[Beardy]

The predicted demand for hospital beds raises an ethical dilemma for medicos whose job it will be to triage the patients. At one end of the argument some say it will result in compulsory euthanasia and the others claim it's pure pragmatism in the absence of alternatives.

mick

Is there an argument to be had here?
The doctors will do what they can do to the best of their ability / capacity and it is what it is from there. Just like they would do in times of war.

[Glider]

I don't think this thread is the best forum for an argument on medical ethics. Such difficult choices are rare in the medical profession but they do happen in the career of any doctors working in a hospital or hospice. Of course they do their best under the circumstances but it does knock them around. Spare a thought for them.

mick

[FenceFurniture]

...it does knock them around. Spare a thought for them..Indeed Mick. Very disturbing images of Chinese doctors "snapping" a month or two back. PTSD for life I would say is the result for them after a crisis during which they have to make such awful choices.

[woodPixel]

The predicted demand for hospital beds raises an ethical dilemma for medicos whose job it will be to triage the patients. At one end of the argument some say it will result in compulsory euthanasia and the others claim it's pure pragmatism in the absence of alternatives.

I think medics face these dilemmas every day. They must reach a stage with every person where medicine, knowledge and machinery is either not good enough, pointless, futile or obscene.

Interestingly, for those inclined to Science Fiction, there is a show Im deliberately re-watching called Altered Carbon (Netflix). It explores these issues in rich and compelling detail. The sub-narrative is completely fascinating. I strongly recommend it.


I'm fascinated by the changes in attitudes. The neo-conservatives are suddenly looking to their smaller governments for help rather than letting the market take care of everything and the climate deniers are all hanging onto the words of experts. I wonder if they've realised it yet.

You are NOT WRONG!!!!!!!!!!

It went from :

-- the market knows and fixes all
-- hands-off government style
-- hands off our businesses
-- taxes are critical
-- unemployment benefits are Just Fine

To :

-- Bail Out the Big Boys: 125 BILLION EVERY DAY for eternity (USD$625 Billion a week!!!!) Unprecedented Intervention: The Fed Will Purchase $125 Billion In Securities Every Day | Zero Hedge (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/unprecedented-intervention-fed-will-purchase-125-billion-securities-every-day)
-- Micromanaged interventions and a strong totalitarian response
-- Telling each and every business what it must do
-- Taxes are now Out The Door
-- Unemployment benefits double


Its almost MAGICAL what shapes these Neo-Liberals can twist themselves into when it affects them personally.

The moral hazard is absolutely unreal. I've a thousand examples.

They are all morally bankrupt. Their ideals are simply formulated to enrich themselves. This disaster has exposed them for the complete hypocrites they are.

It reminds me of the Animal Farm --> "All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others."



(By the way, I dont disagree with societies response, simply the political pricks delivering it)

[BobL]

The death toll in Oz still stands at 7, even though the number of infections is doubling every 3 days. We have already established that death rate figures are complete bollocks because of the numerous flaws in testing. But a toll of 7 would seem to be quite outstanding wouldn't it? (although NZ has 0)

Why does our brains trust think that is the case, and is likely to spike quite soon?

The number of deaths will depend on things like, the ages of people that catch it, their existing health conditions and level, availability and quality of health care, and extent of testing and tracking. We've done OK on testing but maybe not so well on tracking.

So far the greatest proportion of cases in OZ have been travellers who tend to be younger and healthier which has probably kept the death rates down. Australia has a younger age profile than many other countries so all else being equal we should end up with a lower overall death rate (relative to total population not testing), if we don't, we have really screwed up. The Graphs shows not meany people over 70 have been infected.

470398

Apart from a couple of cases a success story so far has been keeping COVID19 out of retirement villages and nursing homes although they should probably have gone into full lock down about 3 weeks ago. My Mums place only went yesterday. Mums got dementia but when my sister finally told her yesterday about the situation she seemed to take it in her stride, probably because she's had to cope with many hardships in her life.

Things went pear shaped in Italy once the number of ICU/ventilators were too small to cope with requirements. I don't know about other states but in WA, as of yesterday morning there were 140 cases, 1 death 1 recovered, 12 in ICU and 2 serious. This probably reflects the ages of those infected and that the ICUs are capable of handling these numbers.

This is a very simplified analysis but let's say the numbers increase by only a factor of 10 ie 1400 cases, 120 needing ICU with 20 serious cases. With only 100 ICU units currently in the state (supposedly another 100 on the way) things are going to get deadly. Given a factor of 10 is only about 2 weeks away then a full lock down and more deaths seems inevitable.

[FenceFurniture]

Just touching back to the original "empty shelves" theme: apparently food seeds and seedlings are now having a run on them here (Oz), but it's kinda the wrong time of year to start growing many things. In any case, I already have a supply of seeds (always do), and I'm going to build some plastic tents. Would appreciate any ideas in this thread:
Small individual greenhouses for my vege garden this winter - anyone with experience? (https://www.woodworkforums.com/f286/individual-greenhouses-vege-garden-winter-experience-233551)

[BobL]

I too was thinking about the OP - I wonder how many members ever thought it would come down to where we are today in just 4 weeks when all we were worried about was empty tool shelves?

[GraemeCook]

Just touching back to the original "empty shelves" theme:...


I too was thinking about the OP - I wonder how many members ever thought it would come down to where we are today in just 4 weeks when all we were worried about was empty tool shelves?

As the OP, I was thinking the same thing a couple of minutes before you posted, Bob and FF. Who would have thought a thread on potential tool shortages would run to over 600 posts.

Sincere best wishes to everyone; be strong and compassionate.


Fair Winds

Graeme


PS: Does anyone know if Bunnings or M10 are still open? Does anyone care?

[woodPixel]

Removed as it wasn't particularly relevant.

[BobL]

A mobile phone is life. It is payment. It is your ID. It is your passport. Its is the ONLY thing that gets you things. It is everything. People would rather pay their $20 monthly mobile fee than FEED their own children if the choice were forced. They would use their very last $20 to pay that $20 bill.

There are three mobile carriers in China.

In January and February there have been 8.25 million disconnections, or "non continuances".


I've seen the hysterical twit feeds on this and there are lots of explanations. One is that many Chinese mobile phones are supplied by workplaces - no work - no phone. Censorship ie removal and shut down by authorities, because just like westerners they like to gossip. Maybe some Chinese finally realised they were being tracked, and valued their privacy or likelihood of being forcibly quarantined or jailed, over the value of their mobile.

[GraemeCook]

Kiwi friend emailed me yesterday:

"... Jacinda Adern has just announced Level 3.....all non essential businesses must close, we must stay away from all outside public places, playgrounds etc. all schools are closing as of tomorrow....apart from children of essential workers who have 48 hours to arrange alternative arrangements.

In 48 hours (midnight from Wednesday) we are Level 4.... everyone is in lockdown, everyone must stay at home, for 4 weeks!!!!! Supermarkets, Pharmacies, medical services remain open.

NZ is trying to save thousands of lives, (the consequences if we don’t) ..."

[doug3030]

https://scontent.fmel8-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/90642266_10158596656104505_2038861120470515712_o.jpg?_nc_cat=107&_nc_sid=ca434c&_nc_ohc=Vp3QaO-C3zEAX96bRxq&_nc_ht=scontent.fmel8-1.fna&oh=3a9b2d380338ecd6554608f845222ef8&oe=5E9F233F

[fxst]

I have a couple rifles and ammo, hunting permits etc so food isn't a problem or isolation.Toilet paper on the other hand...........

[GraemeCook]

Thousands of cruise ship passengers told to self-isolate due to coronavirus days after disembarking

(Source: Thousands of cruise ship passengers told to self-isolate due to coronavirus days after disembarking - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-23/cruise-passengers-not-tested-for-coronavirus-before-disembarking/12081426))
On March 18 Health Minister Greg Hunt issued an emergency biosecurity order preventing any cruise vessels from docking in Australia for the next month.

The Australian Border Force Commissioner has said 13 passenger cruise ships were still at sea at the time the order came into force.

Of those 13, the Voyager of the Seas and the Ovation of the Seas docked on March 18, the Ruby Princess docked on March 19, and the Celebrity Solstice docked on March 20.

Some passengers from each of those ships have now tested positive for coronavirus.

People who had been on the Ovation of the Seas were assured in writing by NSW Health officials, and verbally while on the vessel, that they did not need to go into self-quarantine.

But four days after they arrived, passengers began receiving emails and calls from NSW Health officials on the morning of Saturday, March 22 advising them they urgently needed to self-quarantine.

On (the) arrival (of the Ruby Princess) in Sydney on Thursday, March 19, Mr *** expected a long wait at the port for border and health checks, given the concern around cruise vessels in the past. But that never happened. "It was just rush, rush, getting off," he told 7.30.

Forty-eight people who were onboard the Ruby Princess have since been confirmed to have coronavirus.

The above is alarming. What follows is worse.
(The) NSW Health director of communicable diseases, said NSW Health had undertaken risk assessments on all vessels that had arrived in port

"We recognised that risk was there and had a pragmatic approach towards trying to assess that risk," ...
...(The Director) ... said the Ruby Princess was considered to be low risk based on a number of factors.

"No passengers or crew had come from a high-risk country before boarding the ship," .....

"The rate of acute respiratory illness was very low.

"Putting these factors together, it didn't appear there was a significant outbreak of COVID-19 on the ship."

Two notes:


the NSW Director of Communicable Diseases acknowledged that there was a low rate occurence of acute respiratory illness on the ship, and
What level of outbreak of COVID-19 is insignificant?

[BobL]

Kiwi friend emailed me yesterday:

"... Jacinda Adern has just announced Level 3.....all non essential businesses must close, we must stay away from all outside public places, playgrounds etc. all schools are closing as of tomorrow....apart from children of essential workers who have 48 hours to arrange alternative arrangements.

In 48 hours (midnight from Wednesday) we are Level 4.... everyone is in lockdown, everyone must stay at home, for 4 weeks!!!!! Supermarkets, Pharmacies, medical services remain open.

NZ is trying to save thousands of lives, (the consequences if we don’t) ..."

We should have done this two weeks ago.

Here's an interesting testing data table (ordered in terms of #tests/million people)
From COVID-19 testing - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing)
Australia was 4th or 5th on the list for test/million a few days ago, but now we are 15th (OK 13th if we remove the underpopulated Canadian provinces)
Another thing we have going for us is low numbers of positives/1000 tests (12), we are ~16th on the list for this but that includes dubious places like Russia and china.
BTW NZ has only done 8000 tests and has 17 cases per 1000 tests.
If we hold our nerve and institute a total lock down ASAP we have as good a chance as anyone with this thing.

Contrary to popular belief Taiwan only has 1000 tests/million? and 7.1 cases per test.


470409

[BobL]

I have a couple rifles and ammo, hunting permits etc so food isn't a problem or isolation.Toilet paper on the other hand...........

If you are truly isolated you can always drop yer daks in de backyard and use a hose.

If it's raining take daks off and ride around on bike (standing off the saddle) will eventually wash it all off - and down your legs as well.

[BobL]

Thousands of cruise ship passengers told to self-isolate due to coronavirus days after disembarking

(Source: Thousands of cruise ship passengers told to self-isolate due to coronavirus days after disembarking - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-23/cruise-passengers-not-tested-for-coronavirus-before-disembarking/12081426))
On March 18 Health Minister Greg Hunt issued an emergency biosecurity order preventing any cruise vessels from docking in Australia for the next month.


Nope not a misprint someone from these cruises died a few hours ago.

But what a cock up of the highest order. The whole self quarantine has been a crock from when it first started.
"Oh I will just go to the shops, or work until the test results come in" etc.

[NeilS]

Checking in late on this thread.

Ordered ingredients for hand sanitiser three weeks ago and no problem sourcing back then. Was thinking ahead for family and friends who might not get themselves organised before supermarket supplies ran out. Yet to make up a batch as our regular pre-virus supplies are still holding up. Have always had a spare bottle on hand as an essential with snotty young grandkids.

I've been in voluntary isolation for two weeks now. Our immunologist son recommended that I go into early isolation ahead of the curve; being an asthmatic and (just) a bit over the hill I'm a prime candidate. This far into strict isolation I'm thinking it's going to feel like an eternity if it goes on for six months of incarceration, or more. I have toyed with the idea of getting it early before the hospital system is overwhelmed, but no guarantee that I wouldn't still be in an ICU when the peak hits.

Here are a few websites/articles, if you haven't come across them already.

First one has daily stats by country. Nothing new there other than the fact that it is run by a 17yr old. There is some hope for us yet!

Coronavirus Dashboard (https://ncov2019.live/data)

I love a graph and here are a couple of recent articles with curves and projections.

As I write the first article/page was current 7 hours ago (I'm not sure how regularly they update it). Helpful to have the data plotted from the same base; ie. since 10th death (so Australia not included) in first graph and since 100th confirmed case in third graph.

Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as the pandemic spreads | Free to read | Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest)

The second article is from a financial analyst having a go at some projections. My epidemiologist friend says that financial people should stick to their knitting. Anyway, here it is for those who like do a bit of forecasting with a few coefficients and slopes.

Peak Virus: Forecasting the Peak in COVID-19 Infections in the US and Australia - Christopher Joye | Livewire (https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/peak-virus-forecasting-the-peak-in-covid-19-infections-in-the-us-and-australia)

Having an immunologist in the family I've been primed to the high probability of all of this for decades, but that doesn't reduce the discomfort and disquiet from the daily impact that it is having now that it is here with us.

This will pass with hopefully as few casualties as possible, but on the other side of the 'bridge' the bigger challenge still awaits us.

Back now to the sanctuary of my workshop where everything seems quite normal. It's where I'm going to keep me sanity through all of this...:U

[ian]

Thousands of cruise ship passengers told to self-isolate due to coronavirus days after disembarking

(Source: Thousands of cruise ship passengers told to self-isolate due to coronavirus days after disembarking - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-23/cruise-passengers-not-tested-for-coronavirus-before-disembarking/12081426))
On March 18 Health Minister Greg Hunt issued an emergency biosecurity order preventing any cruise vessels from docking in Australia for the next month.

The Australian Border Force Commissioner has said 13 passenger cruise ships were still at sea at the time the order came into force.

Of those 13, the Voyager of the Seas and the Ovation of the Seas docked on March 18, the Ruby Princess docked on March 19, and the Celebrity Solstice docked on March 20.

Some passengers from each of those ships have now tested positive for coronavirus.

People who had been on the Ovation of the Seas were assured in writing by NSW Health officials, and verbally while on the vessel, that they did not need to go into self-quarantine.

But four days after they arrived, passengers began receiving emails and calls from NSW Health officials on the morning of Saturday, March 22 advising them they urgently needed to self-quarantine.

On (the) arrival (of the Ruby Princess) in Sydney on Thursday, March 19, Mr *** expected a long wait at the port for border and health checks, given the concern around cruise vessels in the past. But that never happened. "It was just rush, rush, getting off," he told 7.30.

Forty-eight people who were onboard the Ruby Princess have since been confirmed to have coronavirus.

The above is alarming. What follows is worse.
(The) NSW Health director of communicable diseases, said NSW Health had undertaken risk assessments on all vessels that had arrived in port

"We recognised that risk was there and had a pragmatic approach towards trying to assess that risk," ...
...(The Director) ... said the Ruby Princess was considered to be low risk based on a number of factors.

"No passengers or crew had come from a high-risk country before boarding the ship," .....

"The rate of acute respiratory illness was very low.

"Putting these factors together, it didn't appear there was a significant outbreak of COVID-19 on the ship."

Two notes:


the NSW Director of Communicable Diseases acknowledged that there was a low rate occurence of acute respiratory illness on the ship, and
What level of outbreak of COVID-19 is insignificant?


funny, my wife and i discussed this earlier tonight ...

as I understand the facts considered by NSW Health, especially in relation to the Ovation of the Seas
1. The ships loaded in Sydney and headed towards NZ. (so far, so good.)
2. Boarding passengers were temperature "checked" before boarding.
3. The ships didn't make any port calls or stops in NZ because, before they arrived in NZ, all NZ ports were closed. (so the passengers hadn't actually traveled anywhere they could be exposed to the virus.)
4. The ships returned to Sydney where the passengers who had originally boarded in Sydney were permitted to disembark because, in effect, they hadn't been "anywhere". (so the passengers could be classified as "well" as they hadn't been anywhere they could be "exposed" to a source of the virus.)

Taking the above into account, I see two possible scenarios:
A. among the passengers was a person (or persons) who was asymptomatic to the virus, who then went on to infect the other passengers. (would this be a case of community transmission ?)
B. one or more of the cruise line crew is an asymptomatic carrier of the virus.

There is a third scenario,
C. testing in Australia is so poorly targeted that it's not so much people slipping through the cracks in the testing system, but one of people passing through the gaping holes in the system.

[FenceFurniture]

The other possibility is that the virus was already on the ship - I read somewhere this morning that it lasted for 17 days on a surface (which I think may have also been a ship cabin). I don't what the turnaround time is for those ships but I imagine that they are constantly full of people.

(edit) Here it is:
CDC: coronavirus survived in Princess Cruise cabins up to 17 days after passengers left (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/cdc-coronavirus-survived-in-princess-cruise-cabins-up-to-17-days-after-passengers-left.html)

[GraemeCook]

...
Back now to the sanctuary of my workshop where everything seems quite normal. It's where I'm going to keep me sanity through all of this...:U

Thanks, Neil

Enjoy your voluntary social separation!

[FenceFurniture]

You'd have to think that the Cruise ship industry will be buggered for years, if not permanently, after this. They must be massively profitable when you consider what the cost of those behemoths must be, and how many of them there seems to be. Personally I'm not even remotely interested in a cruise.

More info from New Cruise Ships in 2019 - Cruise Critic (https://www.cruisecritic.com.au/articles.cfm?ID=3443)
The cruise ship building boom that began in 2018 continues in 2019 with 18 brand-new oceangoing cruise ships hitting the open waters (that's four more than in 2018), including some first-in-class vessels and more new expedition ships than the industry has ever seen before.

Ships launching in 2019 will range in size from 70-passenger expedition ships to 6,600-passenger mega-ships. More small ships will debut in 2019 than large ships -- just seven of the 18 ships will carry 1,000 cruisers or more.


And from another source:
Total worldwide ocean cruise capacity at the end of 2018 will be 537,000 passengers and 314 ships.


I'd be pretty sure that building boom just stopped in it wake.

[GraemeCook]

"... Without serious action, Australia may run out of intensive care beds by early April ..."


Without serious action, Australia will run out of intensive care beds | Medium (https://medium.com/@megan.higgie/without-serious-action-australia-will-run-out-of-intensive-care-beds-between-7-and-10-april-59f83b52756e)

This paper is based on the simple premise that at the existing exponential rate of growth of COVID-19 and that 5% of cases will be classed as serious requiring intensive care beds, then Australia will simply run out of available ICU beds between 7-9 April 2020. That is, Tuesday to Wednesday the week after next. A little earlier in NSW, a little later in some other states.

It is probably unrealistic to think that the government can obtain more such beds within the next two weeks, and it probably understates how many beds will be required for other, non-COVID-19, patients. Anecdotal evidence is that ICU's already have very high occupancy rates.

This is scary!

[GraemeCook]

This is an interesting article about testing for immunity to COVID-19. There would be a lot of peace of mind knowing that you could not catch the virus.

Finding ways to forge through the COVID-19 pandemic – Harvard Gazette (https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/03/finding-ways-to-forge-through-the-covid-19-pandemic/?utm_source=SilverpopMailing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%2520Gazette%252020200323%2520%281%29)

[kungsleden]

UQ, with help from some Pharma, is working on a vaccine.

Race to develop coronavirus vaccine - UQ News - The University of Queensland, Australia (https://www.uq.edu.au/news/article/2020/01/race-develop-coronavirus-vaccine)
Looks quite promising. But it won't be available tomorrow.

[Lappa]

NSW currently has 874 ICU beds. At this point in time, of the 818 confirmed cases, 12 are in ICU and 8 require ventilators.
Thats 1.4% in ICU - hope those percentages don’t increase.

[BobL]

NSW currently has 874 ICU beds. At this point in time, of the 704 confirmed cases, 12 are in ICU and 8 require ventilators.
Thats 1.7% in ICU - hope those percentages don’t increase.

We haven't reached peak infection but simple scaling suggests that once the 704 cases reach ~50,000 there will be enough serious cases amongst them to require all the ICU beds. That of course assumes assumes similar rates of seriousness and no deaths or recoveries amongst the current serious cases. It also leaves no beds for any other ICU cases.
Hopefully the recent changes will help slow things down other wise it will be too late.

[Handyjack]

PS: Does anyone know if Bunnings or M10 are still open? Does anyone care?[/QUOTE]

Here in Victoria yes they are (at the moment).
Yes I care. I need the hardware store open for spare parts and other supplies.

[Beardy]

PS: Does anyone know if Bunnings or M10 are still open? Does anyone care?

Here in Victoria yes they are (at the moment).
Yes I care. I need the hardware store open for spare parts and other supplies.[/QUOTE]

still open and trading normally........they are pretty busy with everyone stocking up

[Kuffy]

At work today, we have implemented a bunch of things to reduce infection between the office, the guys upstairs designing roof trusses and the grunts like me on the factory floor. No one is to enter another section anymore which is pretty easy for the office workers and the designers. But the factory has multiple zones and processes, of which I can operate all at speed, but most staff can only do one or two zones as assistants. With the amount of work winding down, we are needing to move around a lot having person A work with person B on machine Z, and then person A needs to move to another area and work with person C on machine Y etc etc. So apart from allocating a tape measure, hammer, staple gun and any other bits n pieces to each grunt, we now need to disinfect machinery as we begin to work on them. My point is, social distancing with just ~10ppl doing set processes is a freeken nightmare. I'm in favour of eradicating the virus rather than herd immunity (flattening the curve), as eradication just seems much more plausible. I reckon as more voices like mine are heard, lock down will be in full force by Sunday night.

[Lappa]

We haven't reached peak infection but simple scaling suggests that once the 704 cases reach ~50,000 there will be enough serious cases amongst them to require all the ICU beds. That of course assumes assumes similar rates of seriousness and no deaths or recoveries amongst the current serious cases. It also leaves no beds for any other ICU cases.
Hopefully the recent changes will help slow things down other wise it will be too late.

As we have 2229 ICU beds, that gives us a 4.4% max requiring ICU at 50,000 infections. It’s going to be close.

i spoke to my sister today - she’s in lockdown in country California. She said Trumpy is considering lifting the lockdowns but she reckons the Governors will overrule him.
My ears are still burning from her appraisal of the guy.:o

[BobL]

An Italian cousin works as a carpenter/joiner from a home wood workshop in a small village in the Alps (district of Trento) and says no hardware stores are open in his district. He's only permitted to work if its an emergency - he makes doors and window fames so not a lot of call for this. So far in 3 weeks of shut down he's only done one paid job replacing a damaged window in a house in the mountains. He does a few odd jobs for himself otherwise he's totally locked down.

[Tccp123]

An Italian cousin works as a carpenter/joiner from a home wood workshop in a small village in the Alps (district of Trento) and says no hardware stores are open in his district. He's only permitted to work if its an emergency - he makes doors and window fames so not a lot of call for this. So far in 3 weeks of shut down he's only done one paid job replacing a damaged window in a house in the mountains. He does a few odd jobs for himself otherwise he's totally locked down.

We're already seeing this and we're not even locked down. My local FB page is full of people asking for work. And this is only a week and a half into it. What's it going to be like after six months?

[BobL]

We're already seeing this and we're not even locked down. My local FB page is full of people asking for work. And this is only a week and a half into it. What's it going to be like after six months?

He's got work do but he's not allowed to do it, or hasn't got the timber or the fixtures and can't get them because the sellers are shut.

[derekcohen]

Not sure if anyone has posted this:

Telehealth system expanded to help patients get help during coronavirus pandemic, more test kits and masks on the way - ABC News (https://amp.abc.net.au/article/12085094)

Regards from Perth

Derek

[Tccp123]

470425

Good effort, .06%

[Lappa]

At the moment in my area, most businesses are open and it’s business as usual, although lack of patronage is evident in the retail shops. Supermarkets are busy. Obviously restaurants, coffee shops are take away only but most coffee shops were opening around 7am this morning. My favourite coffee shop still had tables on top of each other before the latest close down and people were avoiding it like the plague so there is hope that people are listening. Now they are take away only.
I still had a class Monday with one notified absence. We were supposed to have a hookup with management who were going to explain the future today but that didn’t eventuate which is not uncommon when they call meetings.
None of the students have been told about close downs at work so I can’t see much changing in my industry unless they go UK style.

What are others seeing in your neighbourhood?

[woodPixel]

A Debt Jubilee will need to be called.

3 months, perhaps 6.

[BobL]

470425

Good effort, .06%

Unfortunately it's not possible to test everyone in Australia as there are simply not enough test kits in the whole world to do that ?

The best we can hope for is targeted testing and tracking/monitoring which is what Korea has done with about the same number of tests per head of population.

I see Sydney Westmead hospital has developed a blood test that can pick up if anyone had the virus and survived so if this is applied routinely to anyone having a blood test so medical authorities will get a handle of the numbers that have had mild cases that have had it without anyone knowing about it.

Just watched the PMs latest effort - talk about farting around at the edges of the problem ie beauty salons are now out but hair dressers are in?

If you are only supposed to go outside your house do the shopping, work, bank, pharmacy, medical appointments or helping someone then why the heck are all those other stores and shopping centres left open. Doesn't stack up IMHO.

[FenceFurniture]

There are supposed to be 500,000 of the new 15 minute tests landing in Oz this week.

[jazzy69]

South Korea are on the ball apparently. They have testing stations everywhere. They were quite well prepared because they have had similar viruses previously.
On channel 7 tonight

[RossM]

For those that want to get objective, factual information about the statistics - see this site. I think its the best you will get. A lot of VERY detailed analysis and NO speculation.
(Also very worthwhile looking at the analysis for other data sets - lot of categories to pore over)

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research - Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus)

Of interest:
" ...the data shows South Korea has done many more tests than other countries. That means we can expect that in South Korea the number of confirmed cases – positive tests – is closer to the real number of infected people than it is in other countries.That makes it encouraging to see that the number of daily confirmed cases in South Korea has gone down...."

" ...journalists pretend that the case fatality rate (CFR) gives an answer to the question [How likely is it that a person who is infected by COVID-19 dies because of it]. But this is not the case.
While it is a relevant metric, the CFR does not in fact tell us the risk for an infected person to die..."

"...if it is the case that the number of total cases is higher than the number of confirmed cases, then the ratio between deaths and total cases is smaller than the ratio between deaths and confirmed cases.
This also means that when we compare the CFR between different countries, the differences do not only reflect higher rates of mortality, but also differences in the scale of testing efforts..."

What is important is to try and understand the possibility of exponential growth, while understanding that the initial exponential growth may not be constant over time.

"...The trajectory of China and South Korea shows that the speed at which cases rise is not necessarily constant over time. Both countries saw a rapid initial rise but then implemented severe counter measures ... the trajectory became flatter, the speed of the outbreak has decreased..."

This is all to say that it is INCREDIBLY important to try and understand the detail of the figures being thrown around. Political 10 second sound bites and shock-jock headlines just don't cut it. Its complex.

[BobL]

Of interest:" ...the data shows South Korea has done many more tests than other countries. That means we can expect that in South Korea the number of confirmed cases – positive tests – is closer to the real number of infected people than it is in other countries.That makes it encouraging to see that the number of daily confirmed cases in South Korea has gone down...." .This is a rapidly changing landscape - the data link you posted says it's for data posted ~20 Mar.

In my post above some more recent data (MARCH 23) shows Spain has now done more tests than Korea, and one province of China, Italy and the US have done almost a many total tests.
[EDIT] ON USA has also overtaken Korea in total number of tests

More important than the total number of tests is the number of tests per capita.
11 countries and 4 major regions have more per capita tests than Korea, and Australia has performed about the same number of test per capita as Korea.
The difference is Korea did many of their tests very early in the epidemic and used extensive tracking and tracing and quarantine more effectively than other countries.

Only 4 countries have tested more than 1% of their population for COVID19 and Korea is not one of them. While the signs from Korea are positive until more general testing is performed we wont know how far COVID has spread in any country.A blood test for COVID19 antibodies that uses a small amount of blood collected for all "routine" blood testing purposes is going to ultimately be useful to determine infection rates especially for non-symptomatic cases. This cannot be performed ON or even in a few weeks but will take many months so it won't help us in the near future.

[ian]

quoting Scotty from marketing Source ABC text copy of his "pontification"

"... weddings can continue to be conducted where it is just the couple, the celebrant and the witnesses. That's no more than five people and the four square meeting rule has to be observed within the venue in which that is taking place."

so all you prospective brides and grooms -- no holding hands during your vows, the "you may now kiss the bride" can't even be an elbow bump, and forget about any sort of reception. Can't have you breaching the 4 sq.m. rule can we?

But thinking some more about it, even if the bride and groom are cohabitating and the bride is pregnant, why are weddings permitted at all ?
So no more wedding receptions.



and as for funerals ...

"... funerals [are limited] to no more than 10 persons observing the rules around the four square metre rule and the social-distancing practices."

so no condolence hugs or even elbow bumps are allowed -- you would be breaching the 4 sq.m. rule if you did.
I understand how important "saying a final good-bye" is to the grieving process, but to limit the good-byes to no more than 10 persons (several of whom will be disinterested employees of the funeral director) and it becomes the same situation as a wedding -- why bother ?
Overall it would IMO be better to delay the funeral till after the pandemic peak is well past.

[doug3030]

https://scontent.fmel8-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/90703803_1590203154476634_3300980996052090880_n.jpg?_nc_cat=1&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=yPQgb0WgpD0AX_BgJ9L&_nc_ht=scontent.fmel8-1.fna&oh=990d00aefa369cb3baa2bffafa8ac9d9&oe=5EA14FB5

[BobL]

Overall it would IMO be better to delay the funeral till after the pandemic peak is well past.

And With any luck some of the older participants will have passed away so overall risk will be reduced.

[BobL]

If you are going to use whiskey it has to be >60% or 120 proof to work.

[FenceFurniture]

Overall it would IMO be better to delay the funeral till after the pandemic peak is well past.And if the numbers go where it seems likely, where would the bodies be stored?

[Tccp123]

To put this thing into perspective (and to get a feeling for how many dead bodies are disposed of every year) have a look at the table showing causes of death in Australia in 2018 on this site:

3303.0 - Causes of Death, Australia, 2018 (https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/Lookup/by%20Subject/3303.0~2018~Main%20Features~Australia%27s%20leading%20causes%20of%20death,%202018~1)

[BobL]

Interesting significant drop in heart disease as a leading cause of death over 10 years, also slow drops is death rates from strokes and lung cancer.
Accompanying this is the rise of Dementia as a cause of death which looks like it is going to overtake heart disease some time next year.
BTW significant differences between males and females - Dementia has already overtaken heart disease for females. Lung cancer still higher for males than dementia.

470436

[Tccp123]

Interesting significant drop in heart disease as a leading cause of death over 10 years, also slow drops is death rates from strokes and lung cancer..
Accompanying this is the rise of Dementia as a cause of death which looks like it is going to overtake heart disease some time next year.



Not unexpected I would think. As they take away one cause of death the next one in the table will jump up to take its place till it's eradicated.

Another interesting statistic I ran across this morning is that the normal death rate in Italy is 10.7/1000

[BobL]

Unfortunately it's not possible to test everyone in Australia as there are simply not enough test kits in the whole world to do that ?

Maybe not as far away as we think

COVID-19: Could we test everyone? - The Signal - ABC Radio (https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/the-signal/new-covid-testing/12087034)

[woodPixel]

Maybe not as far away as we think

COVID-19: Could we test everyone? - The Signal - ABC Radio (https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/the-signal/new-covid-testing/12087034)

Ill listen to this this arvo.

It may be of interest to some here (of the curious minds) that BioHacking is A Thing.

They use techniques like CRISPR to brew up new marvels.

They remind me of when I was young and the internet was unknown - a wild and exciting frontier!

Being immerse, cutting edge, highly transparent, sharing everything and "Open Sourcing" everything is a key driver behind their enthusiasm..... here is a bit of an article on ABC today: Meet the amateur 'biohackers' making their own experimental COVID-19 test kits - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/amateur-scientist-making-a-rapid-test-for-coronavirus/12084974)

I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if this loose coalition of haphazard nutters actually get to the goal first.

[BobL]

I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if this loose coalition of haphazard nutters actually get to the goal first.
oh they (basically copied fellow bio hackers in the US) have done it. What is now needed is approval to use and investors to bulk produce. Of course big pharma will fight them and people will die needlessly.

[Glider]

Just back on topic for a brief moment. If anyone's thinking about spending serious money on tools or other items, better do it now at existing list prices. Be prepared for a 20% hit from our tanking exchange rate.

I'm now in the shed for the duration with the nearest neighbour 800 metres away.

mick :)

[BobL]

OTOH the drop in demand from more people out of work might balance that to some extent and help reduce prices. I don’t know about everyone else but my email box is filling with notices of deals and sales.

[Simplicity]

And if the numbers go where it seems likely, where would the bodies be stored?

On ice like there planing in the Uk
Literally on a Ice Ring

I know that’s not what we would like too hear.

Cheers Matt

[woodPixel]

Just back on topic for a brief moment. If anyone's thinking about spending serious money on tools or other items, better do it now at existing list prices. Be prepared for a 20% hit from our tanking exchange rate.

There are some seriously deep disruptions barrelling down the pipe with bonds, repos, currency and commodity contangos... and various fiscal stimuli.... Jesus H Christ, the positions in/on derivatives are simply beyond belief (!!!!!!). Leverage, OMG, the numbers are insane. I, personally, think that we are about to see some seriously huge and incredibly violent movements in currency valuations.... the USA is about to print to oblivion.... the old AUD dollerydoo might yet spike directly upward like a meteorite.

The markets are nuts. The trades are nuts. Everything is a COMPLETE shitshow.

BUT, you are right, we need tools :) I'm thinking of buying a plane with any free loot :) :)



I'm now in the shed for the duration with the nearest neighbour 800 metres away.

You lucky bastard :)

[woodPixel]

And if the numbers go where it seems likely, where would the bodies be stored?

I doubt there will be any funerals of victims. They'll all be cremated ASAP.

[Lappa]

I’m pretty sure the ice rink morgue is in Spain.

Email this morning from “the boss” to say TAFE is pausing classes for two weeks so we can set up to go mostly online.
Happens from next Monday. Online will start up after the Easter Holidays so we have two weeks to get it up and running.

[Lappa]

I’m pretty sure the ice rink morgue is in Spain.

Email this morning from “the boss” to say TAFE is pausing classes for two weeks so we can set up to go mostly online.
Happens from next Monday. Online will start up after the Easter Holidays so we have two weeks to get it up and running.

[Tccp123]

470480

[DomAU]

A Debt Jubilee will need to be called.

3 months, perhaps 6.

Let's hope not. That would be devastating.

[BobL]

A bit of light relief. OK its not for everyone

https://youtu.be/VGMQO5frsSk

Can't help thinking that even this would have more impact than any add the Govt has put out so far..

[Glider]

It occurred to me after a yarn yesterday with a neighbouring farmer than social distancing is normal practice for people on the land. We were at least 2.5 metres apart as usual. It's different in town much less Sydney.

mick :)

- - - Updated - -

[GraemeCook]

Finally, the massive efforts of Italy may be starting to pay off. The number of new cases of COVID-19 has been trending down for the last three days, as highlighted by the red arrow.

Another two days of similar trending and it will be statistically significant.

470487

This is not to say that there will not be a lot more pain. Italy still has over 57,000 active cases of which 3,500 are serious or critical. There will be more deaths, but they are probably on the up-slope.

[Usual qualifier as I do not know reliability of source.]

[BobL]

My lads latest 3D printed face shield head band and easily removable/replaceable clear plastic file divider spatter shield.
470488

[taz01]

I know this should be in a joke post but here is is anyway.

Maybe this would work in Bondi...https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200326/f6c62b4a93c1fa0ae08679de40d5b534.jpg

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

[BobL]

I know this should be in a joke post but here is is anyway.

Maybe this would work in Bondi...

In the US it would just be an excuse for all the gun nutters to kick off?

[DomAU]

Putting aside the direct health risks of this virus, the thing that both worries me the most and angers me the most, is that the economic impact and the inequitable outcomes that it will drive are not due to the virus at all but the last 40 years of irresponsible monetary, fiscal and overall government policies.

The fragility of our entire system, brought about by the extreme leverage taken by corporations, smaller businesses and individuals (insane mortgage) debt) that was facilitated through centrally manipulated suppression of interest rates and loose government policies as well as prior bail-outs, is why we will now see such devastation and annihilation of the world as we know it.

We haven't even started proper lock-downs and people, individuals and businesses, are screaming for the government to help them, as if the government can magically create real wealth. I've always planned for at least a couple of months without work and never extended myself financially beyond the ability to support myself and family - to my detriment in terms of investment returns / asset bubble gains. I'm not sure if people understand that the people support the government not the other way around. The government can only provide something to someone if they take it from someone else. This will lead to grossly unfair outcomes, with some responsible people (and future generations of taxpayers) footing the bill to cover many people and businesses that lived large and consumed beyond their means while times were good, rather than saving for, and investing in, the future. Shame on those people who are now sticking their hands out. Of course we must help them, I would never walk by and let a neighbor starve, but it doesn't make it fair or equitable.

Not only that, but I fear that the entire system is going to break-down given how much money the USA and even our central bank is creating and how badly they are distorting the financial markets. I fear that the fall-out from this catastrophe will be worse than any direct effects of the actual virus itself.

Anyway, let's see. In any event as a best case I predict massive inflation in basic goods, a huge wealth transfer from the middle-class and any savers as well as future generation(s) and far more socialist policies and central control by governments going forward.

We should be supporting each other and behaving responsibly with regard to saving, consumption and investment, but instead we go the other way and think that the government will be our parents and look after us.

Cheers comrades,

Dom

[NeilS]

I know this should be in a joke post but here is is anyway.



A little well placed humour never goes amiss.


470490

[BobL]

Had to take one of the dogs (Willow) to vet about her eye. Not permitted to wait in Vet waiting rooms, have to wait outside or in car with AC running as it was 34ºC in the shade and call the Vet when we arrive. When they are ready we had to bring Willow to door and they took her in. Then when ready to release the vet calls us to go back to the door to pick up. All very sensible really.


Turns out Willow has something stuck in her eye and will have to have a general anaesthetic to have it removed. More bloody $$$$.

[GraemeCook]

.......
Turns out Willow has something stuck in her eye and will have to have a general anaesthetic to have it removed. More bloody $$$$.

But Willow's fine, and that is what's important. All good.

But, seriously, Bob, with all the bars, restaurants and massage parlours closed, what else could you spend your $$$$'s on?

[BobL]

Tools ? But SWMBO’s horse had a vet visit yesterday for orthotic shoes as it’s feet have literally gone pear shaped!

[GraemeCook]

Worldometer has just updated its graph on new cases in Italy by adding yesterday's new cases. The escallation has not resumed; good news so far.

470491

The hope must, of course, be that the graph for Italy follows the general shape of the graph for China. It has had an exponential growth shape like China; let us hope that it now follows a comparable decay curve. My guestimate is that Italy is now poised near the apex of their curve, comparable to the position indicated by the red arrow on China's curve.

470493
[Source: World Health Organisation: Report of the China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019.]

[BobL]

Worldometer has just updated its graph on new cases in Italy by adding yesterday's new cases. The escallation has not resumed; good news so far.

The hope must, of course, be that the graph for Italy follows the general shape of the graph for China. It has had an exponential growth shape like China; let us hope that it now follows a comparable decay curve. My guestimate is that Italy is now poised near the apex of their curve, comparable to the position indicated by the red arrow on China's curve.

Looks positive but the Italian Authorities are still concerned the general population will slacken off their vigilance as they will need to keep this up for some time. This is the time that's the hardest to cope with as coming off the brake too early could easily result in a rebound. The will also be a subsequent waves to contend with.

The Italians imposed a full lock down in their most affected regions some 4 weeks ago when they about 1/4 of the cases and the same number of deaths Australia has now. The Italian data suggests it takes 4 weeks to see a significant change in the curve so we should have been at full lock down at least one week ago.

It's interesting to speculate/compare the Chinese with Italian situations as the Regional populations are about the same size.
- Chinese experience was relatively blind, Italians had some hindsight evidence of that might happen from Chinese
- Chinese population are (or are made) more compliant, Italians will cut more corners
- Chinese acted faster and more decisively than Italian? ie hard lockdown, forceable quarantine, rapidly put up large quarantine hotels/jails
- Italians probably had superior medical facilities and staff but simply not enough to cope with the larger numbers of ICU cases.

There was an infectious diseases person on the ABC last night said that even very poor African countries were able to beat Ebola with minimal tech by rapid quarantining of travellers and using social distancing and hygiene. The general population quickly realised they had no expensive tech fix available and (unlike some local ning-nongs who are not complying with basic quarantining) took successful ownership of the other factors seriously and immediately. For next time we will need to find a much more efficient way of handling travellers returning or moving en masse thru borders. Given what eventually has happened the financial investment would seem like peanuts.

[FenceFurniture]

With the current movement restrictions and panic buying still leaving empty shelves, this thread may be of some help to some folk:
How to make your vege last MUCH longer in th fridge (https://www.woodworkforums.com/f43/vege-th-fridge-233588)

[ian]

I'm not sure if this research Data shows coronavirus can only be controlled if 8 out of 10 Australians stay home - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-stay-home-chart/12084144) has already been posted in this or a similar thread

https://www.abc.net.au/cm/lb/12086230/data/model-shows-physical-distancing-is-vital-to-coronavirus-response-data.png


As of 26 March, Australia is sitting at >2800 cases of coronavirus, so either physical distancing is less than 70% compliance, or was begun too late in the outbreak.

Not taht it makes much difference either way.

[Glider]

As of 26 March, Australia is sitting at >2800 cases of coronavirus, so either physical distancing is less than 70% compliance, or was begun too late in the outbreak. Not that it makes much difference either way.

It was begun too late but hindsight is 20/20. Each time the brakes are applied, we wait about two weeks for a result. It reminds me of the brakes on my ute.

I still shaking my head about the hairdressers. ! In this case I know it's not Peter Dutton pushing it.

mick

[FenceFurniture]

Just watching Melatonia bragging about how well everything is going, and the great G20 meeting. Looking forward journalists' questions to him on having now the world's highest number of cases at 81,000+

Coronavirus Live Updates: U.S. Now Has More Known Cases Than Any Other Country - The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/world/coronavirus-news.html)

[riverbuilder]

Our old mate Kevin Dudd has chimed in this morning regarding the serious explosion in cases in Indonesia, tweeting “this has grave concern for the international security of both Jakarta and Canberra. It will require solidarity and deeply skilled diplomacy ahead”.
I guess he’s looking for a job.

latest estimates are that more than half of the most populous nation per square km on earth are infected, about 150 million people.

[BobL]

Just watching Melatonia bragging about how well everything is going, and the great G20 meeting. Looking forward journalists' questions to him on having now the world's highest number of cases at 81,000+

I'm surprised DT hasn't claimed that as part of his MAGA campaign.

[Beardy]

Our old mate Kevin Dudd has chimed in this morning regarding the serious explosion in cases in Indonesia, tweeting “this has grave concern for the international security of both Jakarta and Canberra. It will require solidarity and deeply skilled diplomacy ahead”.
I guess he’s looking for a job.

latest estimates are that more than half of the most populous nation per square km on earth are infected, about 150 million people.

He would be perfect for the job with his multi lingual skills and he speaks fluently in crap as well

[Fekit]

I'll be honest ian, that fact that our economy is currently being thrown under a bus because a computer model tells us we have to isolate, is nothing short of alarming.

Coronavirus exposes the problems and pitfalls of modelling | Science | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/25/coronavirus-exposes-the-problems-and-pitfalls-of-modelling)


British statistician George Box: “All models are wrong, but some are useful.”

Have a look at the following;

Coronavirus data reveals how COVID-19 is spreading in Australia - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-cases-data-reveals-how-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704)

470549

Virtually all of the issues that we currently face are a direct result of people STILL arriving here from overseas. When that finally stops we will see a decrease in the numbers. Undoubtedly at this point the gubment will jump up and down claiming it was their management of the situation that created the curve flattening, when in reality it was their lack of leadership that created this whole mess to start with.

It is certain that a significant portion of the country will experience the full brunt of this virus......but it's still too early....because it's not cold enough. And we should not be throwing the whole economy under a bus. This is why people in North Queensland want to isolate themselves, not really from the virus....more really the crap leadership and economy trashing.

[woodPixel]

... This is why people in North Queensland want to isolate themselves, not really from the virus....more really the crap leadership and economy trashing.

This has been the argument since federation :)

[Lappa]

The graph that is more worrying for NSW is this one

470550

It showing that that the number of new infections with unknown sources is rapidly rising in comparison to other causes. According to the press today that is due to people not heeding the current warnings and not practicing isolating and distancing.

[riverbuilder]

Virtually all of the issues that we currently face are a direct result of people STILL arriving here from overseas. When that finally stops we will see a decrease in the numbers. Undoubtedly at this point the gubment will jump up and down claiming it was their management of the situation that created the curve flattening, when in reality it was their lack of leadership that created this whole mess.

This is 100% correct, and I note that all the expatriate owners of bars hotels and resorts over there are now whining that their income has gone and they want to come home. This is becoming a cyclic thing, but this time they are bringing a viral death sentence with them, for lots of us.
Indonesia has already put it’s hand out for financial help during this crisis ( which they were denying and saying the power of prayer will stop it) as late as last weekend. I wonder how much the Australian government will send them? Maybe they can sell a few of those Apache attack helicopters they bought with the money we sent them last time?

[GraemeCook]

.....
I still shaking my head about the hairdressers. ! In this case I know it's not Peter Dutton pushing it.

mick

Who would be stupid enough to go to a hairdresser??? Perhaps they may forfeit their place in the gene pool?

[Tccp123]

Who would be stupid enough to go to a hairdresser??? Perhaps they may forfeit their place in the gene pool?

You might be on shaky ground... :-)

[GraemeCook]

Just watching Melatonia bragging about how well everything is going, and the great G20 meeting. Looking forward journalists' questions to him on having now the world's highest number of cases at 81,000+

Coronavirus Live Updates: U.S. Now Has More Known Cases Than Any Other Country - The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/world/coronavirus-news.html)

Didn't see Melanoma, just the FWIC on the same topic.

You missed the obvious headline!

[doug3030]

Who would be stupid enough to go to a hairdresser??? Perhaps they may forfeit their place in the gene pool?

Here's a couple:


Today I was second in the line at the fruit and vege shop, and because I take it seriously because of my medical conditions I was standing right at the end of the checkout while the person being served was down the other end near the cashier, over a metre of "social distancing". A woman joined the queue behind me and stood so close I could feel her breath on my arm.

I politely said to her "Excuse me but do you really think it is advisable to stand that close together?"

She snapped back "Well if you Fu*k!ng moved up the counter I could put my stuff on it."

Me: "Are you aware that we are supposed to be practicing social distancing?"

Her: "Do you think I am a ***king leper or something?

Me: "No not at all, it's just what the Government is recommending because of he pandemic."

Her: "Don't give me that %h!t, I'm not a f**&ing idiot."

Somehow I kept my cool and paid for my shopping and left while she continued to cast aspersions on my parentage to anyone who would listen.


Idiot #2 for the day:

Jools came home on the train and walked from the station to Woolies. I parked in the car park out the front to wait for her. Just sitting in the car listening to the radio with the window down. Next thing I know there is a head in the car with me, intruding through the window, asking me if I want to buy a raffle ticket. I just turned the ignition key to on and hit the window up button and the head magically withdrew from the car's interior. The head then started streaming profanities at me through the glass, but I just picked up the phone and started up the camera. Unfortunately once the phone came out the head disappeared before I could actually start recording. Social distancing and Covid-19 aside that was too intrusive any day of the week. What the hell are people thinking?


I had to stop as pedestrian lights in Essendon while I was driving on Friday. A woman crossed the road in front of me wearing a mask tied over her face. When she was walking directly in front of my car I noticed that I could see right through the mask from one side to the other. It was touching above her nose and under her chin but the sides were right away from her face. Not sure what it was achieving.

I can give more examples if you like.

[GraemeCook]

Looks positive but the Italian Authorities are still concerned the general population will slacken off their vigilance as they will need to keep this up for some time. This is the time that's the hardest to cope with as coming off the brake too early could easily result in a rebound. The will also be a subsequent waves to contend with.

The Italians imposed a full lock down in their most affected regions some 4 weeks ago when they about 1/4 of the cases and the same number of deaths Australia has now. The Italian data suggests it takes 4 weeks to see a significant change in the curve so we should have been at full lock down at least one week ago.
....


So true, Bob.

Researchers in the COVID-19 Response Team at Imperial College, London looked at this issue and included it in their paper published on 16 March 2020. From their modelling, they concluded that if the suppression measures are stopped too early then the virus may rebound and be worse than no action at all.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

470563

[BobL]

Just saw another ordinary performance from the PM and then switched over to watch US ABC news - he really needs to see more of this sort of thing.

I understand he wants to keep as many people at work as possible. However, unless we're talking about DT how can any leader look a shoe sales assistant, schoolteacher's, or hair dresser's family in they eye 6 weeks from now and say "the death of your family member doesn't count, I kept you working" ?

If we ask any unnecessary worker today if they would sacrifice their unnecessary job for the life of a family member or friend then I think we'd know most of their answers.

[Tccp123]

If we ask any unnecessary worker today if they would sacrifice their unnecessary job for the life of a family member or friend then I think we'd know most of their answers.

But of course we don't ask that question. There's no doubt that decisions that involve balancing lives and costs are far easier to take when the life at issue is not likely to be your own. It is one thing to think in terms of trade-offs when those who will be affected are anonymous draws from a large population and quite another when it is a matter of family and friends.

[DomAU]

But of course we don't ask that question. There's no doubt that decisions that involve balancing lives and costs are far easier to take when the life at issue is not likely to be your own. It is one thing to think in terms of trade-offs when those who will be affected are anonymous draws from a large population and quite another when it is a matter of family and friends.

And yet, we make those trade-offs all the time, every day, with many decisions we make. We take risks with our lives all the time, be it to save time, make money, get some sort of enjoyment etc. For some reason a virus is far more scary though for most people - myself included. Rationally, I know that riding 90km to work and home most days on 100kph single lane roads with no shoulder, in rain, fog, dark etc is far far more likely to kill me than this virus - yet it doesn't stop me doing it.

[Tccp123]

And yet, we make those trade-offs all the time, every day, with many decisions we make. We take risks with our lives all the time, be it to save time, make money, get some sort of enjoyment etc. For some reason a virus is far more scary though for most people - myself included. Rationally, I know that riding 90km to work and home most days on 100kph single lane roads with no shoulder, in rain, fog, dark etc is far far more likely to kill me than this virus - yet it doesn't stop me doing it.

You've hit the nail on the head!

[DomAU]

But of course we don't ask that question. There's no doubt that decisions that involve balancing lives and costs are far easier to take when the life at issue is not likely to be your own. It is one thing to think in terms of trade-offs when those who will be affected are anonymous draws from a large population and quite another when it is a matter of family and friends.

Also, if the government wasn't handing out other people's money left and right, I wonder how many of us would be happy to give up our source of any income to mitigate this risk - really, think about it, imagine no safety-net at all, would you be happy to quit and not get any income at all for as long as it might take to completely stop the spread? I don't know the answer - but the question is definitely there - as are the impacts on a national / global level.