CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[woodPixel]

About one third of my northen Italian rellies are in lockdown towns. It’s weird because shops, restaurants and bars can open during the day but patrons are supposed to stay 1m apart. Organizing Italians is a bit like herding cats so I can’t see that working. Most of the Southern Italian working/living in the north have also already headed south so that’s been a real success!!

This will be terrible to say - but perhaps Italians will now get their wish that immigrants leave :)

My dad stays in Sorana Italy (https://goo.gl/maps/iiHVhgCev3qwEHTt6). It is REVOLTINGLY cute. So gorgeously picturesque. Beyond belief actually. He does stone work, restoration, helps during several of the "collection festivals" (stones, nuts, beans, etc). Rebuilds/repairs peoples "new houses" (they are only 500 years old).... stays quite some months, quite frequently.

He was talking with some of the local residents many years ago (I was going to say old residents, but they are all old) and they retell stories of frequent invasions, influxes, wars.... there is a saying, I cant recall it properly (non parlo bene l'italiano) but its "they come, they go"..... it is said with a blasé look and a shrug!

They are a tough bunch. I suspect they'll ride it out like every other disaster that's befallen them... with stoicism.


Edits: I've many stories that were recounted to me about the area. Rich in cultural and historical heritage beyond belief. Here is a picture if you are interested. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sorana_(Pescia)#/media/File:Sorana_vista_da_Vellano.jpg)
(I've a nice container of Sorana beans too. Collected right from the hard rubble and rocks they like to grow in. Tasty!).

[BobL]

This will be terrible to say - but perhaps Italians will now get their wish that immigrants leave :)

that would be as disaster as just like many other first world countries there would be insufficient low level job workers.

[woodPixel]

I posted this video to the other discussion, but I felt it *may* be worthwhile doing it here.

This is the Los Angles container port. It handles about 20% of all container movements into the USA.

According to Wikipedia... (3,000 ha) of land and water along 43 miles (69 km) of waterfront, 9.3 million containers moved per year, 27 cargo terminals, 86 container cranes, 8 container terminals, and 113 miles (182 km) of on-dock rail.

It was posted 3 days ago by a longshoreman.

Well.... um.....


https://youtu.be/M1pFHh4EYxI

[Bushmiller]

Today SWMBO asked me if I thought the government should be doing more to combat the Coronavirus and, going on from that, whether the government should be providing additional stimulus to bolster the economy. A parallel would, I think, be the way the GFC was tackled. Now I am sure it could have handled better than it was, but at least some attempt was made. Australia came out of that crisis better than most countries.

My reply was that the government should take the reins and give a detailed and truthful appraisal of the situation. Hell; That might be requiring a bipartisan approach. This might go some way to allay the fears of the fearful or if indeed they should be afraid it will be a heads up for everyone. The government should develop some balls and tell it how it is. By this I mean explaining whether or not it is a more severe disease than any other flu or illness. We have been encouraged in recent times to have flu vaccinations. Is Corona virus a problem only because you cannot at this moment in time vaccinate against it? Is it more contagious than other flu (let's restrict it to flu rather than smallpox, ebola etc)? Do more people die from Corona Virus than other fluor even the common cold? Is it being called Covid 19 because a Japanese car company thought sales might suffer on one of their most popular models?

At the moment if you live in america you are far more likely to be shot dead than die from the flu so have we got the whole affair out of proportion? Having said that I heard on the radio this morning that the share market took a king hit and woodPixel posted that disturbing picture of Los Angeles where it looks like the angels have deserted the sinking ships (how's that for some mixed metaphors? :rolleyes: ) and clearly there is an issue bearing in mind that if California were a country in it's own right, it would be the sixth largest economy in the world! Of course the oil debacle is not helping.

I am reminded of the phrase that "perception is reality." If the world thinks it is in dire straights, it will find itself in dire straights, particularly bearing in mind that the world economy is fundamentally a bubble where everybody hopes the debts will not be called in.

Sorry: More questions than answers.

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

There is probably a better set of information than the media.

I'm sure they are trying to publish what they can get through their editors, owners, government head stompers and outright censorship. Maybe I'm wrong.

The picture in the world is vastly different that being reported.


Here are some of the links I've bookmarked and view each evening.

1 - "Subversive" information - https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus (https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/)
2 - "Official" information - Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) (https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/)
3 - A bit hit and miss. Many off topic rants and a bit of anti-certain-countryism but not bad - COVID-19 Discussion (https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/) and COVID-19 (https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/)

4 - The CDC - Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/index.html)
5 - CDC info presented graphically by Johns Hopkins - https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd
6 - and another independent view with more (not necessarily better) information - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


On the 3 links above, there is a rather violent turf war going on with what appears to be an enormous amount of Chinese censorship, bulldozing, demands for apologies, cries of "racism", disinformation, historical revisionism and outright shilling.

I'm not into that game or personally entering the discussion on it - but its pretty blatant that the CCP has employed *armies* of people to post spin, re-profile events, put positive spin on how the CCP has handled things, diminish their responsibility in the S-storm, deny/lie about events and/or blame others. Its not very subtle (the wording is all the same and the communist-propaganda-talk is all textbook) and the attacks are always personal (Ad Hominem).

The moderators on Reddit are apparently having a bit of Whack-a-mole with them.

BUT, Reddit is an excellent source of man-on-the-street viewpoints and I've been aware of events WEEKS ahead of the MSM (e.g. I was first discussing this on 15 Dec with others).


It appears these are the facts so far:

-- 80% of people will catch this disease
-- 15% of all people will experience an extreme reaction that will require hospitalisation
-- 6% of all people will die


These are a bit rounded off, but the stats haven't changed that much... other than the ones from China, which show a MUCH rosier picture that every one else.

Be safe friends.

[BobL]

It appears these are the facts so far:

-- 80% of people will catch this disease
-- 15% of all people will experience an extreme reaction that will require hospitalisation
-- 6% of all people will die


Humm . . . . .that's a bit bold.

From what I have read these are not facts but top end estimates
About the only fact we do know is that nobody knows those numbers.

If you decide to discount the Chinese numbers then we don't have enough data in to get those numbers as the vast majority of infections have occurred in just the last two weeks.
The first German case was reported on Jan 28 and they have ~900 reported cases and no deaths.
Contrast that with Italy and Korea both with with ~7000 cases and 366 and 51 deaths respectively
The numbers are jumping around too much
None of these have reached peak infection so until that happens we simply won't know

I'm not even sure the CDC knows what's going on as they are probably being nobbled by the Trump Administration so I would take anything said by them at this stage with a grain of salt. They also completely cocked up their first sets of tests and had to redo them and are appear now well behind the eight ball and unfortunately worse so in their own country.

[woodPixel]

They are the CDC's stats.

Johns Hopkins too.

Here is the link: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/index.html)


Make of it what each person may. I won't dispute anyone's opinions, experiences or thoughts as I'm trying to find the human side of it - not the governments (whom I inherently distrust).


Personally, I KNEW three people in 1xShenzhen and 2xWunhan. SZ said he reopened a factory but had to reclose. Biz is at a 100% standstill. I lost contact, completely with the Wunhanites. They were telling me of dead people "stored like cordwood" at the hospitals. Since 2 weeks ago, nothing. Others have told me the same of their Wuhan contacts.

I dont believe the Chinese figures one single iota. I believe is is complete fabrication and will be between 20x and 100x worse.

[BobL]

Like I said the CDC stats are suss because they have no clue about what is going on in their own country - they simply have not done enough testing. Maybe they are trying to get Trump of his behind to do something because from what I can see they are not doing anywhere near enough.

It will be very interesting to see how this pans out across countries. There will be huge finger pointing and blame games being played. Unfortunately the ultimate winner may well be the economy that gets back on its feet fastest.

[Simplicity]

I dont believe the Chinese figures one single iota. I believe is is complete fabrication and will be between 20x and 100x worse.[/QUOTE]


This too my mind is one of these scary things,we are not getting the truth from the Chinese government,
Or possibly even our own government??

Cheers Matt

[BobL]

I dont believe the Chinese figures one single iota. I believe is is complete fabrication and will be between 20x and 100x worse.

Again sheer speculation at this stage.

[A Duke]

We live in interesting times.

[woodPixel]

My comments have been divergent and I dont wish to paint myself as a tin-foil hatter :) :)

BUT, someone made an interesting comment once, in passing.

It was fairly simple and flippant, but it stayed with me. It was essentially:.... why would you lock up 750 million people because 3000 died?


Id imagine in a city of 30 million (Wuhan) that that many people must die of falling down stairs every day. Or choke on hot chips. Or go under buses.

Lets try to turn this situation on its head....


What would be so bad, that needed stopping with such incredible urgency, that it required giving your entire economy a heart attack, paralysing it for 2 months and locking up 700, or 750, million people, in their homes?

Do you really think its to slow down a COLD/FLU that they don't really know much about, that officially killed 1000 people at the time.... or is it possibly something much much much bigger than that?


Imagine I'm a Chinese CDC pleb and say to The Boss... "Gee boss. Seems there's a problem. A Lot (50k) people are coughing badly and 1k have died over the last month. Can I stop the entire economy of China for 2 months, Just In Case"

Boss: "No. No you fecun can't" would be the reply.....


OR I say "Boss. The hospitals are chocka-block, 1 million are sick, 50k have died today and it seems to spread to people just being the in the same room for 5 minutes"......

Boss: "Hmmmm, you have my attention...".


Really, do you believe to ONE SECOND that out of 750,000,000 people under quarantine that 3,000 have died?

Really? Lets do the maths. 365 days a year. A person lives 100 years (its a miracle!) that means that for 750M people, 20,500 people die of OLD AGE every day.

and we lock down a civilisation for 2 months based on 1000 dieing over a period of weeks?


Nope. Nope. Don't buy it for a second.

[justonething]

What's are south Korea stats? They have the most complete testing regime believe

[Hoey]

Don't know if this is true or not??!

Chinese woman describes Wuhan virus patients ... | Taiwan News (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3881683)

[woodhutt]

Just watched an interesting doco on the Spanish 'flu epidemic of 1918/19. Here's a link YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDY5COg2P2c) and it's worth a look to see just how difficult it was to contain even then when people travelled far less. My Dad lost his eldest sister aged 19 to this pandemic in 1919 (he was 12). The doco explains the effects of what was actually Swine fever which jumped from animal to humans (as seems to have happened in Wuhan). It started in the US and was carried to Europe by US soldiers joining WW1. Interestingly, it was called 'Spanish 'flu because Spain was alone in reporting the outbreak and spread of the disease in its borders to the world news media. All other countries seem to have imposed reporting restrictions. The symptoms were apparently more akin to Haemorrhagic fever (like Ebola) than regular 'flu. Pete

[Tonyz]

something no one has thought of...watch the population increase in 9 months time.

Countries forcing/encouraging their people to stay at home, nothing to do except be safe, be happy and bonk :rolleyes: to your hearts content....so petes sake lets look at the funny side.
other option is of course this virus is one way to prevent over population :oo:

[BobL]

something no one has thought of...watch the population increase in 9 months time.

Countries forcing/encouraging their people to stay at home, nothing to do except be safe, be happy and bonk :rolleyes: to your hearts content....so petes sake lets look at the funny side.
other option is of course this virus is one way to prevent over population :oo:

It actually won't help much in population control as it preferentially kills off older folks who were going to die soon anyway.
Effective population control would prevent births happening i the first place.

[Handyjack]

I wonder if it will effect the divorce/separation rate?

[artful bodger]

It actually won't help much in population control as it preferentially kills off older folks who were going to die soon anyway.
Effective population control would prevent births happening i the first place.


Mother nature has got this one wrong then and should lift her game.
Something to stop the scourge, the plague, the infestation of people is perhaps going to be a welcome thing.

[A Duke]

Over population is everybody's baby.

[woodPixel]

One day, I hope humanity can live in harmony with the environment.

This is after repairing all the physical damage, reversing our most egregious harms to all species and repair and love the delicate areas for what they are.

I hope this.

But I also believe the best thing for every other animal and ecosystem on this planet is for humans to simply not be present. We are a scourge. An all-devouring, all-consuming, all-killing, all-destroying machine of death.

We need to change, but we never want to change.

[Greg Ward]

You are taking too much a short term view.
It really doesn't matter if you look long term, we all become stardust in a few billion years.
As for extinctions, over 99% of all species that have evolved since life started on this little planet have disappeared, so don't worry too much, statistically it's only a matter of time.
Greg

[Fuzzie]

It's been an interesting experiment.

[BobL]

These WHO graphs are instructive.
The numbers RE about 24 hours behind but trees have not changed.
The three graphs are for China, Italy and Australia

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[Bushmiller]

The stats are now over 100,000 confirmed cases worldwide. These are the official stats as of 10 March 2020.

469835

My reservation is that this relies heavily on accurate reporting and correct identification. There could be many more cases and outbreaks. I note that Africa is apparently not significantly impacted at the moment.I find this hard to believe. Similarly South America. This could be a geographical isolation issue. 110 countries have reported cases. These are the most affected.


469836

(Source: WHO)

My earlier question,bearing in mind all the people that die from other illnesses, accidents, violence etc every day, was why is this virus worse or so scary. Possibilities are:

Ease of transmission
No vaccine ( or likely to be available inside of six to twelve months)
Ability of virus to target the susceptible (those with already poor or lowered immune systems)


Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

something no one has thought of...watch the population increase in 9 months time.
..... :oo:

Reminds me of when Indira Ghandi was advocating for a TV in every village in India ...... to reduce the birth rate.

[GraemeCook]

....But I also believe the best thing for every other animal and ecosystem on this planet is for humans to simply not be present. We are a scourge. An all-devouring, all-consuming, all-killing, all-destroying machine of death......

Wow, you are such an evil bastard.

What is your solution - mass suicide?

[GraemeCook]

The stats are now over 100,000 confirmed cases worldwide. These are the official stats as of 10 March 2020.
......
My reservation is that this relies heavily on accurate reporting and correct identification. There could be many more cases and outbreaks. I note that Africa is apparently not significantly impacted at the moment.I find this hard to believe. Similarly South America. This could be a geographical isolation issue. 110 countries have reported cases
.......

Nice analysis, Paul.

I also note that the detected and reported cases are largely concentrated in the more economically advanced countries with better medical facilities. "Reported cases" are low for Africa, South America and other low income places.

This may reflect lower mobiliy of poorer people, or simply lack of medical resources to detect cases.

Scary.

[RossM]

Nice analysis, Paul.

I also note that the detected and reported cases are largely concentrated in the more economically advanced countries with better medical facilities. "Reported cases" are low for Africa, South America and other low income places.

This may reflect lower mobiliy of poorer people, or simply lack of medical resources to detect cases.

Scary.

I suspect you are right that the advanced economies are better able to detect & report stats on this, and that mobility of the affluent in our modern world is having a huge influence on the distribution patterns.

Reports of asymptomatic carriers is also likely to mean that the actual infection rates are under reported. It also makes it much harder to control the spread (quarantine is far less effective if you can't readily detect an infectious person). And no definitive answer as to how long a person remains infectious is also a concern.

[woodPixel]

Wow, you are such an evil bastard.

What is your solution - mass suicide?


I read this today on the ABC News' website: Two rare white giraffes killed by poachers, Kenyan conservancy says, leaving only one left on Earth (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-11/two-rare-white-giraffes-killed-by-poachers-conservancy-says/12044602)

So.....

I'm not advocating our extinction any more than any other species (except Mosquitoes!). I'm not anti-human. I look to the "ordinary person" and I see kindness and good, but to quote Men In Black "A person is smart. But people are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."


People cause unrivalled destruction on this planet and all its inhabitants. People, act in evil, calculated ways to rape and destroy nature unrepentantly.

There are too many examples - dynamiting reefs to fish, chopping down the irreplaceable Amazon for a few cheap logs, pumping irreplaceable oil and burning it in cars, ripping up the rainforests of Borneo to plant Palm Oil trees as a monocrop....

and now, the slaughter of two unique white giraffes, for what? Fun?


I am not the evil bastard. We all are.

This whole thing is The Lorax (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lorax) all over again.

"Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothing is going to be get better. It's not."

[BobL]

An important missing number in all these stats are the "number of people tested" using a valid/comparative test. eg The first test the CDC used was apparent invalid.

The real danger with this virus is how close to the edge we are with regular medical services so the virus could affect enough people to overwhelm the hospital/medical system.
Not just because of patients with the virus but how it will put a serious reduction in the numbers of medical staff.
It's not like we have any spare doctors and nurses in the first place.

My mate is a retired paediatrician and says he's waiting to get called up and put on a register - not because kids are catching or dying from the virus but because there are lots of paediatricians close to retirement and a certain proportion of those are likely to get the virus. This means there will be a loss of service to do normal paediatric care and thus more kids will suffer and may die from other complications. Multiply that across the whole health sector and we can then see what is going on.

I have a cousin in Italy who is a senior nurse. She did a 60 hour week for the last two weeks and is scheduled for a 72 hour week next week because other nurses are going down with the Virus.

[ian]

The real danger with this virus is how close to the edge we are with regular medical services so the virus could affect enough people to overwhelm the hospital/medical system.
Not just because of patients with the virus but how it will put a serious reduction in the numbers of medical staff.
It's not like we have any spare doctors and nurses in the first place.

My mate is a retired paediatrician and says he's waiting to get called up and put on a register - not because kids are catching or dying from the virus but because there are lots of paediatricians close to retirement and a certain proportion of those are likely to get the virus. This means there will be a loss of service to do normal paediatric care and thus more kids will suffer and may die from other complications. Multiply that across the whole health sector and we can then see what is going on.
Text of an email received from a friend in Sydney -- sent on Friday 6th March

"Lots of changes happening at my hospital. They have cancelled all hospital meetings from Monday [March 9], & there is a freeze on taking any leave this year until further notice. I was still waiting for them to sign off on leave in Aug so I can take [text deleted], so that has made it interesting!!!"

[woodPixel]

I'd like to think that the gov will "call up" everyone who is a retired doctor (in any form), left the profession, was a nurse or even skilled volunteers/enthusiasts.

I know nothing of the complexities of real nursing, but its critical and it frees up doctors to do the really important stuff. I'm sure an intelligent grunt can be given the basics quick smart... enough to supplement in tough times.

[elanjacobs]

I'm not advocating our extinction any more than any other species (except Mosquitoes!)
I sure hope that was tongue-in-cheek, because an extinction at the very bottom of the food chain like that would probably cause the extinction of more species (either directly or indirectly) than humans ever have

[BobL]

I can just see it now when I go to have my next PET scan in May.
The nurses with years of specialised training that pump my body full of radioactive sugar prior to having a scan have been replaced by an intelligent grunt :oo:

Some of the tech the nurse have to use is pretty specialised - I prefer someone with a "quick basics" training is not allowed anywhere near those gizmos - I'm nervous enough with the nurses using them. Wheeling the patients around and cleaning out bedpans is largely handled by orderlies.

[Bushmiller]

I'd like to think that the gov will "call up" everyone who is a retired doctor (in any form), left the profession, was a nurse or even skilled volunteers/enthusiasts.

I know nothing of the complexities of real nursing, but its critical and it frees up doctors to do the really important stuff. I'm sure an intelligent grunt can be given the basics quick smart... enough to supplement in tough times.

WP

I would very much like to think that something like that could happen, irrespective of the detail (I take Bob's concern about the "grunt" aspect), but in principle it would be possible: However maybe not in Australia where the bureaucracy is an immovable behemoth. Let me explain: In the last couple of months our local doctor general practice closed down. The circumstances are controversial so I won't go into the detail, but it left us without a GP facility. The local hospital has taken over the GP duties and has brought new people in from far afield. They were unable to directly employ any of the original staff from the the medical practice because of protocols and basically bureaucracy! I t was only the practice owner who was under investigation.

In this case it is Queensland Health who have not moved. In a way it is not their fault as the system has been set up with such a level of rigidity that they are quite unable to step outside the guidelines and their own self regulation. I suspect it will be similar in other states.

Again it is fear that prompts this attitude: Fear that if something goes wrong there will have to be a scapegoat and a head or heads will have to roll.

Regards
Paul

[BobL]

WP

I would very much like to think that something like that could happen, irrespective of the detail (I take Bob's concern about the "grunt" aspect), but in principle it would be possible: However maybe not in Australia where the bureaucracy is an immovable behemoth. . . . l

Im pretty sure this would new covered in emergency health situations like a pandemic where the Gov basically takes over. A bit like the army reserve being used during the bush fires.

[Simplicity]

I’ve missed the news,long days,
But ,has India and Africa been hit hard yet by the virus.?
I read that India had about 500 cases by early March.
I would be extremely concerned for both countries,
They would not have the infrastructure or resources to cope.


Cheers Matt.

[44Ronin]

Well it looks like the collective state rumps and big federal rump have collectively done sweet FA until its too little and too late.

[woodPixel]

I was thinking that our systems, like hospitals, are very "hands off".

One drops in with a bag and everything is taken care of. No problem with that, its quite civilised. The problem is... what happens when N% of the population and ~20% of all cases are serious, and simultaneous?

The bods we'd rely on are in the process of dying (or, in the colloquial language of our government, "Getting Better")....

It seems reasonable that if a family member can look after Uncle Joe while they are holed up at home, then they can chip in at the hospital and help with the routines.... things like feeding, sanitation, beds fixed up, things cleaned, the trolley of stacked yellow bags to the furnace...



I'm not talking about heart surgery or doing MRI perfusion tests, but hey, I'll give it a crack! :)

I'll wear a stethoscope on my neck :) Quack quack! :B

[BobL]

Unfortunately it's now got so bad in some Italian hospitals that there are some patients just being left to die, not because they don't have staff to feed or clean them but because they don't have enough skilled staff or the ICU beds/ventilators necessary to keep them alive. It's not like someone attached to a bunch of machines in ICU is eating much or where unqualified persons should even be. The patients being "let go" are also not just COVID19 sufferers but include those that have presented with the severe stroke and cardiac etc issues, that are oldest and sickest. The doctors and experienced nurses are now directing their efforts and resources to saving younger patients who have greater chance of recovery.

[ian]

Unfortunately it's now got so bad in some Italian hospitals that there are some patients just being left to die, not because they don't have staff to feed or clean them but because they don't have enough skilled staff or the ICU beds/ventilators necessary to keep them alive. It's not like someone attached to a bunch of machines in ICU is eating much or where unqualified persons should even be. The patients being "let go" are also not just COVID19 sufferers but include those that have presented with the severe stroke and cardiac etc issues, that are oldest and sickest. The doctors and experienced nurses are now directing their efforts and resources to saving younger patients who have greater chance of recovery.
I believe the term is triage -- the military kind





a pretty confronting specter if you've not previously been exposed to it.

[AlexS]

Following on from BobL's post, this is a good article on why it's important to slow down the rate of new cases, even if, ultimately, COVID19 becomes endemic in the population.

469887

[BobL]

I believe the term is triage -- the military kind
a pretty confronting specter if you've not previously been exposed to it.

I reckon it would be confronting either way?

[BobL]

Haven’t seen this mentioned anywhere but 2 useful outcomes of COVID19 are a massive reduction in industrial air pollution over China (and hence the whole northern hemisphere) and a significant world reduction in high altitude dust from reduced air travel could produce some global cooling. At some point I wonder if the benefit of these could outweigh the death rates from COVID19?


This has begun to be taken seriously and given that it's estimated that pollution kills somewhere between 5-7 million persons per year it appears there's definitely going to be some benefits.

[derekcohen]

Following on from BobL's post, this is a good article on why it's important to slow down the rate of new cases, even if, ultimately, COVID19 becomes endemic in the population.

469887

I thought that this was an interesting article ...

Inside China’s All-Out War on the Coronavirus - The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html)

Regards from Perth

Derek

[AlexS]

It is indeed an interesting article Derek, and it seems that we have a lot to thank the Chinese for, in the way they moved quickly to slow it down.

Re WoodPixel's post, at the end of Derek's article, there was this interesting comment on the use of non-medical people.


Lots of government employees were reassigned?

From all over society. A highway worker might take temperatures, deliver food or become a contact tracer. In one hospital, I met the woman teaching people how to gown up. I asked, “You’re the infection control expert?” No, she was a receptionist. She’d learned.

[woodPixel]

I've been watching this feed for some time: YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tf-4zQADLS8)

It's a live feed from multiple cameras around Wuhan.


Two days ago, to much fanfare, the city went "back to work".

Its 3 hours behind us (Sydney EST), but also winter, so the sunlight goes earlier and comes later.

Regularly, the cameras are taken offline. Just like that. Poof! Read into that what you will. New ones are found and added on.


But, Wuhan is a city of 20 million.

Notice anything? Anything.... odd?

No people. No cars. We can expect that.... (well, peak hour this morning consisted of a few dozen cars, total)

BUT, no lights on in the buildings. All the residential lights ... off... have been for two weeks. I've watched the buildings go from 90%... 60, 50, 25, 5%... tonight... almost zero.

Look at the videos of across the Yangtsee, the shots in the residential areas, across from the hospitals (if they remain online).


The Chinese number are absolute fiction. The emergency hospitals, I watched this very afternoon, dozens of carts being brought out and loaded into the "Ambulances". It was shut a few days ago, for there are now only a few cases... amongst 20 million. My ass.

Be safe.


469890 469891 469892

[lissa77]

CoronaVirus now hitting world's economy too.

[ian]

I believe the term is triage -- the military kind

a pretty confronting spectre if you've not previously been exposed to it.


I reckon it would be confronting either way?

Maybe not so much confronting as ruthlessly efficient.

Those who are almost certain to die (think complications like a massive stroke or heart attack) might get some palliative care.
Those that are guaranteed to survive get a "band aid".
Those expected to make a full recovery with treatment will likely get access to an ICU bed.

[BobL]

Comment by one of my locked down Northern Italian Relatives.


With the enclosure of bars, in a month or so we should have reduced alcoholism, so few car incidents, reduced domestic violence and gambling. This should result in more money in the pockets of many people who now less affected by alcohol will become superbored and may start wanting to do more work around the house so perhaps overall the economy will benefit.

Just arrived in Turin by Air China air freight, 2300 cartons of face masks with each carton containing a label
"We waves on the same ocean, leaves from the same, flowers from the same garden"
I wonder when things hit the fan whether the chinese will do the same for the US?

[BobL]

Interesting article here comparing the effect of "travel restrictions" V "social isolation"
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo - Medium (https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca)
It turns out if there are already cases in the population the first one does bugger al but the second one is far more effective at slowing things down.

[woodPixel]

https://youtu.be/Fqu28cxKSUM


Where an Italian can't get pasta, well, its real.

[Simplicity]

Some interesting facts,
From the lead singer of The dead Kennedys
(One of my favourite bands back in the day[emoji6])

Especially regarding Trump taking money from his infectious disease unit,
To build a wall between the workers and the rich!!!!

Cheers Matt.

Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/100000288226780/posts/3177201842299392?sfns=mo)

[GraemeCook]

.....Where an Italian can't get pasta, well, its real.


SCENE: Supermarket in Sandy Bay close to the campus of the University of Tasmania. Bunch of students "of Asian appearance" milling around looking very serious.

Woollies has run out of rice!

[GraemeCook]

https://www.woodworkforums.com/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by ian https://www.woodworkforums.com/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (https://www.woodworkforums.com/f43/coronavirus-empty-shelves-233039-post2177456#post2177456)
I believe the term is triage -- the military kind
a pretty confronting spectre if you've not previously been exposed to it.



https://www.woodworkforums.com/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by BobL https://www.woodworkforums.com/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (https://www.woodworkforums.com/f43/coronavirus-empty-shelves-233039-post2177464#post2177464)
I reckon it would be confronting either way?




Maybe not so much confronting as ruthlessly efficient.....

Although its origins were military triaging is now routine medical practice followed by virtually every medical facility in the world. Focussing your always limited resources where they will do the most benefit is simply good medical practice.

Walk into any casualty or emmergency medicine department in any hospital and the first person that you will see is the triage nurse.

When an ambulance arrives at an accident scene, the first thing that they do is a triage assessment - a quick overview of the situation, and then they decide the order and extent of treatment of the victims.

[ian]

Although its origins were military triaging is now routine medical practice followed by virtually every medical facility in the world. Fucussing your always limited resources where they will do the most benefit is simply good medical practice.

Walk into any casualty or emmergency medicine department in any hospital and the first person that you will see is the triage nurse.

When an ambulance arrives at an accident scene, the first thing that they do is a triage assessment - a quick overview of the situation, and then they decide the order and extent of treatment of the victims.
Hi Greame

I'm a bit vague on the finer details, but understand that there's a significant difference between military and civilian triage.

Military triage is about getting the almost fit, fit enough to return to the firing line.
Those who will likely die regardless of the treatment received are prioritised behind those likely to survive.

Civilian triage is mostly about giving priority to treating the most seriously ill.

[BobL]

Hi Greame

I'm a bit vague on the finer details, but understand that there's a significant difference between military and civilian triage.

Military triage is about getting the almost fit, fit enough to return to the firing line.
Those who will likely die regardless of the treatment received are prioritised behind those likely to survive.

Civilian triage is mostly about giving priority to treating the most seriously ill.

Yep there is little comparison between military and civilian triage. Inside hospital emergency rooms they usually show a large Video Screen with the cases listed in order of priority and what the patient is suffering from - when my son suffered badly from Anaphylactic Shock after eat a banana it was interesting to see he was listed second in a list of 25+ patients just behind a serious car accident victim with multiple broken bones and a punctured lung.
AND
Italian COVID189 Triage different again.
It's based on age (over 60) and having any of a set of preexisting medical condition - if you tick these boxes you don't get the next available ventilator, it's passed onto someone that is outside these boxes.

[GraemeCook]

Hi Greame

I'm a bit vague on the finer details, but understand that there's a significant difference between military and civilian triage.

Military triage is about getting the almost fit, fit enough to return to the firing line.
Those who will likely die regardless of the treatment received are prioritised behind those likely to survive.

Civilian triage is mostly about giving priority to treating the most seriously ill.

Not quite true, Ian. There is very little difference between the two; military officers are no longer requierd to shoot the wounded.

Civilian triage also includes diverting resources from "valiant but ultimately hopeless cases" and employing those resources on "saveable patients".

Think of the reverse: "Young Mary and William unfortunately died as the only available doctor was occupied in a futile attempt to treat Mr Jones...."

Hospitals make these decision every day; it is very routine.

An example: There are six life support machines in an intensive care unit. Nine patients present one morning. How do you decide which six get connected, and which three will probably die?

Hospital staff collectively make these decisions; the toll on professionals is high!

[woodPixel]

SCENE: Supermarket in Sandy Bay close to the campus of the University of Tasmania. Bunch of students "of Asian appearance" milling around looking very serious.

Woollies has run out of rice!

Serious Asians milling rice in Tasmania : News at 7.....

Its very serious. How serious.... Toilet Paper Serious....

Dear god! Call the SES!

[Tccp123]

This morning while at the Post Office,

I was in the queue when two men with masks entered.

Total panic!

Then they said, "This is a robbery" and

we all calmed down.

[BobL]

I saw this headline on the ABC website
Coronavirus hangs over Australian sport like an ominous sense of dread

Then I had a browse of some Italian news websites reporting

Increasing numbers of younger people with COVID19 without comorbidities turning up at hospitals needing ventilators.
Medical staff including medical students in their final years of study working 12 hour days.
Child COVID19 carriers being baby sat by grandparents resulting in high numbers of seniors dying.
Groups of people on "fun runs" through cities being confronted by small groups of elderly persons and told using a full range of expletives and gestures to go home.
Small groups from the cities illegally leaving their homes and moving to the countryside (plenty of spare housing in dilapidated old villages in Italy) following regular medieval practices especially involving the bubonic plague. Naturally any Locals are highly highly concerned about this and reporting them - sooner or later they may start taking the law into their own hands.
Individuals singing and playing various instruments including kitchen utensils from their apartment windows and balconies some forming community choirs in solidarity.
Numerous small fish appearing in previously near lifeless Venetian canals.

[Tccp123]

[QUOTE=BobL;2177617)Increasing numbers of younger people with COVID19 without comorbidities turning up at hospitals needing ventilators.)
[/QUOTE]

Hands up all those who didn't have to Google ""comorbidities" :-)

[Tccp123]

Excerpt from a piece in The Australian:

"It might seem like it, but this isn’t the world’s first flu pandemic. In 2009 H1N1 — known as “swine flu” — infected 61 million people and killed about 590,000 globally, 80 per cent of whom were younger than 65.

In 1968, the H3N2 flu killed one million people, including 100,000 in the US, according to the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.

About a decade before that, the H2N2 flu pandemic killed 1.1 million people.

None of the previous pandemics caused a recession, let alone a near 30 per cent drop in global stock prices.

This is, however, the first flu epidemic where everyone has a digital megaphone.

There’s no reason why this coronavirus should be far more deadly than those previous flu pandemics, provided the death rate ends up lower than feared."

[Chesand]

This morning while at the Post Office,

I was in the queue when two men with masks entered.

Total panic!

Then they said, "This is a robbery" and

we all calmed down.

Funny in this context but not so funny when you are behind the counter when it is said.

[BobL]

Just as important as the death rate are things like the infection rate, incubation period transmissibility during incubation. So far on balance Covid19 seems nastier than the ones you referred to. Using a back of the envelop calculation i estimated about 100000 people in just Oz will die in the first wave of COVID19 unless significant steps are taken. A few days later medical experts came out with the same number (96000). The final death rate could be much higher because depending how quickly it is allowed to develop because it can easily overwhelm medical facilities causing many other people with serious medical problems to also die because the can’t be attended to. Just like any pandemic this is also just the first wave until a vaccine is available it will revisit us and reap more victims a number of times.

[Tccp123]

"Covid19 seems nastier than the ones you referred to"

Why do you say that?

[Lappa]

The 96,000 deaths referred to were quotes as being possible if the worse case scenario occurred which were deaths in the younger population as well as the elderly, rapid spread in a very short period of time over whelming the hospital system, etc, etc.
I blame the media including social media for all this panic - the Daily Tele ran a front page article with your numbers claiming “96,0000 Australians to die” then ran the conditions required to reach that number on page three.

The other thing that amuses me is we can’t have a gathering of 500 people or more buts it’s OK to travel in a train with standing room only, for 40 minutes to an hour, to go to work?

[BobL]

"Covid19 seems nastier than the ones you referred to"

Why do you say that?

Longer incubation period during which those infected don't seem to be showing clear symptoms which gives them a greater chance of spreading it around.
Many children and young adults may not get any symptoms so become very effective spreaders. At least with the other flu's if anyone caught it caught they exhibited the symptoms pretty rapidly so were placed into isolation.

The latest estimates by US epidemiologists are, if more is not done asap, there will be about 1 million COVIOD19 deaths in the US alone (this roughly matches the 100000 in Oz) many of those will not COVID sufferers due to the lack of facilities - this makes it ~10X worse than H1H1.

The Chinese actions in Hubei were extremely draconian but so far appear to have been successful in containing this first wave. They had to be draconian because they were the first to be exposed so had no idea how bad it would be, and in this first wave appear to have got away with just 3000 odd deaths. Most people have no idea that pandemics don't work proportionally but exponentially so by any country taking too few countermeasures too slowly this enables the disease to very quickly get totally out of controls eg Italy.

I had to admit I was on the "YAWN" side about the whole thing started but this changed especially after following a few medical websites, talking to two of the family who are epidemiologists, and even more so when my numerous relatives in Italy started contacting me about it. Whatever the case I would rather hope a lot less people than 100,000 Australian die from Covid19 - for reference ~3500 a year die from the regular flu.

I don't think the government or aussies are taking this anywhere seriously enough. I don't watch much TV but have not seen a single public health announcement about this on TV or as official social media announcements. Done right these could serve to calm as much as heighten peoples awareness about this.

As Dr Norman Swan from the ABC health report says "When this is all over I will be very happy if only a few thousand people die and to be told, or hear shock jocks saying, I told you so, versus to hear, you were right"

[GraemeCook]

.....Increasing numbers of younger people with COVID19 without comorbidities turning up at hospitals .....

Congratulations, Bob, you have used a word that is not in the Oxford English Dictionary - the real twelve volume OED on paper with hard covers!

So I turned to an American source, the National Institute of Health, who state as follows: "...Comorbidity is associated with worse health outcomes, more complex clinical management, and increased health care costs. There is no agreement, however, on the meaning of the term, and related constructs, such as multimorbidity, morbidity burden, and patient complexity, are not well conceptualized....".
Defining Comorbidity: Implications for Understanding Health and Health Services (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2713155/)

I think this paraphrases as comorbidity is serious but we are not sure what it is.

Maybe I should ask Dr Google?

[GraemeCook]

.....The latest estimates by US epidemiologists are, if more is not done asap, there will be about 1 million COVIOD19 deaths in the US alone (this roughly matches the 100000 in Oz) many of those will not COVID sufferers due to the lack of facilities - this makes it ~10X worse than H1H1......

World Health have estimated that in infected areas between 60-70% of the population will contract COVIOD-19, and the mean death rate recorded is around 2%. Angela Merkel has stated that it is possible that up to 70% of the German population may become infected and that their government is planning for that level of disruption. She stopped short of saying that Germany is planning for up to 1 million deaths from the virus; just simple arithmetic.



I don't think the government or aussies are taking this anywhere seriously enough. I don't watch much TV but have not seen a single public health announcement about this on TV or as official social media announcements. Done right these could serve to calm as much as heighten peoples awareness about this.


So true; filtering the announcements through the mouths of politicians certainly impacts on its credibility. ScoMo's performance on TV the other night had as much gravitas as the ladies flogging laundry detergents. I would much rather hear directly from the Director of Public Health.

[rwbuild]

Services NSW are emailing how to's and updates

[Tccp123]

The Italian mortality rate (based on published figures) is 0.002%. If you apply that to the Australian population it's about 560.

[rwbuild]

Another side effect is with cancellation of sports events, schools, workplace disruptions is the internet is getting swamped with extra traffic and slooooowwwwwiiinnngggg down with people working from home, downloading movies and on line gaming

[Kuffy]

the internet is getting swamped with extra traffic and slooooowwwwwiiinnngggg down with people working from home

That's probably true. Pornhub has given quarantined Italians free access to premium Pornhub while in lockdown....and now we have the answer as to why all the dunny paper panic buying :D

[BobL]

The Italian mortality rate (based on published figures) is 0.002%. If you apply that to the Australian population it's about 560.

Looking at todays cumulative death rate per head of population is an unreliable indicator about what is going on now and what might happen. That's why we don't see death rates published by medical people.

Peak infection let alone peak mortality in all EU countries appears far from being reached
Here are the known infections for Italy, Spain, Germany, France, and USA
469948 469949 469950 469951 469954

Australia's curve is not much different.
469960
Oz Public health officials should have probably nobbled air travel and large gatherings back when the curve was flattening out in Mid Feb.
Now its growing exponentially and could be really hard to slow down.

Until these graphs tip over we won't have much of a clue about what is going on and should play it safe - not my words, but from epidemiologists.

The only graph that has tipped over is in China where in a region of about 60 million people after DRACONIAN control measures were applied they report ~3000 deaths.
If that's true, that's commendable, but as I said the death rate before won't be proportional to control. If controls are backed off by even just a whisker then the growth can continue to be exponential.
I am reminded of nuclear reactor control, if the control rods are not inserted far enough the reactor can very rapidly get out of control, sometimes just backing them off by just a mm can result in a runaway section.

Anyway this is largely irrelevant to the Italian medical staff on the front line who are stacking the 250 people that died from COVID19 yesterday in their morgues largely because they did not have the ventilators or staff to cope with the additional rush.

Should we be accepting the death rates of past epidemics as any sort of guide of how to live today? Imagine the uproar if we have to occasionally use abacuses?
I'd rather miss a footy for a few weeks or months than for any of our docs to be placed in the same position as many Italian medical staff are current facing right now and for the foreseeable future. Never mind those that died.

[ian]

a couple more charts

https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/478HoSbn77mHjzsjI43X8NLVYsE=/0x0:1567x1959/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:1567x1959):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19788227/covid_19_testing_per_capita__1_.jpg

https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Mw6r4xroaad7I6djn2BWuFFCWYU=/0x0:1680x1180/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:1680x1180):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19799191/VoKBM_number_of_confirmed_coronavirus_cases_by_days_since_100th_case.png

It looks like South Korea may be getting on top of the Covid-19 outbreak.
Not as sure about Iran,
Italy is on the data still accelerating.

and as for the US, "nothing to see here" is starting to look beyond wishful

[Tccp123]

Going off on a slightly different tangent, given the chaos reported in supermarkets yesterday, what do YOU plan to do (in terms of shopping) to ensure you have enough to get through the weeks/months ahead? Will you just act normally and allow all the nervous nellies to strip the shelves bare or do you wade in with them so you have enough to keep you going?

[Chesand]

We have an upright freezer which SWMBO keeps pretty much full at all times and our pantry is always well stocked so we should be OK. The only thing that we were low on was breakfast cereal so I bought 2 packets yesterday. We have fresh vegetables in the garden and the apple trees have fruit on them
The only thing I have doubled up on are medications for both of us. At a pinch, we could survive without those if we were careful as neither of us have life threatening conditions.

I reckon that we would be able to survive up to 3 months isolation so not particularly worried.

I have just about finished all required outside jobs so am prepared to spend any isolation in the workshop where there are 3 projects on the drawing board

[Kuffy]

what do YOU plan to do (in terms of shopping) to ensure you have enough to get through the weeks/months ahead? ?

I have been giving serious thought to this question. Normally I only buy personal toiletry items, slabs of bottled water (4-5 a time to make it worth grabbing a trolley), juice, and chocolate from Coles/Wooleys. I probably should buy some stuff, but I don't want to be "one of those people!".
469966

There are 5 Coles/Wooleys/Aldi's within 3km of my house and they haven't had dunny paper, bleach, spagetti etc etc for the last week and a bit (since I noticed anyway, could have been longer but I don't go in those aisles normally).

[AlexS]

If you think the toilet paper and tissue shortage is bad now, wait till they close the schools and you have thousands of teenage boys at home with nothing to do.:D

[Chesand]

If you think the toilet paper and tissue shortage is bad now, wait till they close the schools and you have thousands of teenage boys at home with nothing to do.:D

I doubt that they will stay home but rather hang around shopping centres. The girls will be just as bad.

[BobL]

Well, (apart from a few people visiting us and taking me out to see mum who is in dementia care, or for coffee) we have been confined to the house for the last 4 weeks because I have a broken ankle and SWMBO has vertigo and cannot ride in a car let alone drive. For a week or so we've had friends and relatives visiting and bringing groceries but for the last 3 weeks we have used on-line shopping so we're reasonably practiced at this now. It's not perfect but we have not gone without everything except dunny paper, and have even built our pantry up this way. I hope I can get the Moon Boot off early next week and get a few more things including some specialised bulk roo meat pet food which we purchase from a specific supplier.

As far a dunny pape goes we have some but we also have a bidet tap next to one of the dunnies.

According to QLD health authorities they only have about half the required numbers of ventilators needed for even a modest projected outbreak and NSW have even less. Small simple ventilators are available from china but the more advanced ones come from Europe/Japan but I guess we won't be getting many from those sources.

NZ have only 6 confirmed cases and they are about to tighten their borders far tighter than we are.
I cannot see why we are still allowing flights to or from anywhere in SEA.
China may be ok sooner than elsewhere but they may not be letting any Aussies in.

But modelling of previous epidemics show that travel restriction does very little, only high levels of social distancing can really put a dent in the progress of an epidemic.

[Lappa]

. I would much rather hear directly from the Director of Public Health.

Is this the same idiot that said, when this first started, there was no need to check the temperatures of people entering Australia or restricting flights in from countries such as China?
South Korea and a Japan have been doing this for some time.
BTW I agree the Scott Morrison’s performance last night was pathetic.

[Lappa]

Latest news states they don’t know how long the virus lasts for on surfaces eg door knobs etc. Information suggests between a few hours and maybe a couple of days.

So once again, why are they saying public transport is OK?

[BobL]

I doubt that they will stay home but rather hang around shopping centres. The girls will be just as bad.
The only places open should be supermarkets and pharmacies and they should be playing classical music.
It might not matter if schools are open or closed eventually enough students will be staying home that the ratbags will be the first to skip classes. Italy is offering free downloads , might be away to keep them at home??

[Bushmiller]

I would hark back to post #64 (page 5) and point out little that Craig warned of has not eventuated.

Coronavirus: Analysts Don't Understand It - Craig Dalton | Seeking Alpha (https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/48606151-craig-dalton/5408825-coronavirus-analysts-dont-understand)

This was the final warning in the last paragraphs:

"But the purpose of this article is not to predict an outcome, but more to promote a sceptical assessment of analyses suggesting this is a short term event on a par with SARS or recent pandemics.
(Blog post updated 19th February, 2020)
Dr Craig Dalton is a public health physician and conjoint Associate Professor at the University of Newcastle, Australia. He is a former CDC Epidemic Intelligence Service Officer and runs Flutracking.net (http://flutracking.net/) one of the largest national surveillance systems for influenza-like illness in the world."

It could be a protracted pandemic and this in itself sets it apart from previous flues and other significant illnesses. In the last 24 hours we have at work implemented precautions. We are a group of people where working from home is not an option!

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

Going off on a slightly different tangent, given the chaos reported in supermarkets yesterday, what do YOU plan to do (in terms of shopping) to ensure you have enough to get through the weeks/months ahead? Will you just act normally and allow all the nervous nellies to strip the shelves bare or do you wade in with them so you have enough to keep you going?

I might chip in on this one, as I do have a bit of cocktail-party knowledge.... My son works alongside the owner of a fairly large IGA here. He is a "Do-All", but mostly ensuring the shop is kept spiffing.

There is absolutley NO SHORTAGE of anything other than for shelf-grabbers. Metcash, the supplier to literally all supermarkets regardless of brand, has storerooms stuffed to the gills.

The only reason TP is short, is because stupid people are grabbing 10 packets at a time (https://au.news.yahoo.com/elderly-woman-caught-up-in-toilet-paper-brawl-073520474.html). Rational rationing of this stupidity will guarantee supply to all.

If people thought there was a sudden shortage of Grunkohl or Surströmming they would stack their pantries. Yes, Grunkohl is a thing they stock!


--> ON MEDS

However, I might add, importantly, I did ask the local chemist about blood pressure and cholesterol management drugs... YES there is a shortage. YES it will get worse. YES they will run out. ALL the bases are made in China and India and they are NOT getting more for the foreseeable future.

My local bloke is a compounding chemist and I had a joke with him that all he needs to do is release the recipe to the local meth cooks and it would be solved overnight, he advised its not that simple. The bases are super important and not readily "brewed up".

DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS IF YOU NEED THEM.


Be safe.


469971

[woodPixel]

Here is a link to a first hand Italian experience : From an Italian to the rest of the world: you have no idea about what'''s coming. : China_Flu (https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/fhxap2/from_an_italian_to_the_rest_of_the_world_you_have/)

On another note, my three contact in China are gone. I have no word. Last I heard is they had run out of food and money, ones father was sick.... now, nothing. Not even a post. IDK what this means.

I would ask you to go to the Wuhan live camera (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tf-4zQADLS8)s. See how many residential lights are on? None. It is 3 hours behind us (+8 GMT), so its 9pm right now.....

Be safe.

[ian]

NZ have only 6 confirmed cases and they are about to tighten their borders far tighter than we are.
I cannot see why we are still allowing flights to or from anywhere in SEA.
China may be ok sooner than elsewhere but they may not be letting any Aussies in.
It looks as though the NZ Government is doing a Ken Henry -- go fast, go hard, go big, go families


depending on how the NRL reacts, the 2020 season might be abandoned, given that if the NZ Warriors return to NZ they will face a 14 day quarantine and thus miss the Eden Park double header with Australian Rugby.



would be nice if the Aus Gov were a little more proactive with encouraging social distancing.

[ian]

It looks as though the NZ Government is doing a Ken Henry -- go fast, go hard, go big, go families
an update based on what Alberta and the rest of Canada is doing

Canada's population is about 36 Mil.
Australia's population is about 26 Mil. So population wise, an approx 50% difference.


Canada has 218 confirmed cases of Covid-19.
As of Saturday morning (March 14), Australia had 197 confirmed cases. Say 1.5 times the number of confirmed cases in Canada.


Alberta. Gatherings of more than 250 people are actively discouraged and outright banned if the 250 will include vulnerable people e.g. over 65s, travelers from outside Canada. BTW,
In AUS the restriction is on gatherings of 500 or more and importantly the "ban" doesn't start till after this weekend's footy matches. Go figure!


Canada is leaving the flu season.
Australia is entering the flu season. Not good.

[Glider]

I'm afraid that once again our leadership is letting us down badly. Scotty from marketing announcing to all and sundry that he intended to attend a footy game before the crowd ban comes in tomorrow because "it might be the last one I'll see for a while". Then he announces that he doesn't need testing for CV while cleaners in bio suits swab down the Cabinet Room after Peter Dutton because he's been advised that it's unnecessary.

I put the whole panic thing down to social media. In Oberon, where NO ONE walks up the street with their head buried in a smartphone, there's the normal stocks of dunny paper on the shelves. No wait! I did see one bloke with a loaded trolley five days ago. SWMBO reckons he's probably a loo paper scalper from Sydney set to make a killing from the fearful.

Marshall McLuhan was spot on. "The medium is the message. That is merely to say the personal and social consequences of any medium - that is, of any extension of ourselves - result from the new scale which is introduced into our affairs by each extension of ourselves or by any new technology."

Rumoured shortages = panic buying = unexpected production demand = longer lead times = empty shelves. We saw it all in industry in the early 80s. Thank goodness the supermarkets are applying the brakes. Hopefully pharmacies will take their lead.

mick

[Lappa]

an update based on what Alberta and the rest of Canada is doing

Canada's population is about 36 Mil.
Australia's population is about 26 Mil. So population wise, an approx 50% difference.


Canada has 218 confirmed cases of Covid-19.
As of Saturday morning (March 14), Australia had 197 confirmed cases. Say 1.5 times the number of confirmed cases in Canada.

.

Using in your figures, Canada’s infection rate, as a percentage of population, is 0.000606 and Australia’s is 0.000758.

Where is this “1.5 times” coming from?

[Bushmiller]

The toilet paper fiasco is bizarre. Millmerran, a town of a little over 1400 people, has two supermarkets and there is no toilet paper to be had. people from Brisbane travelled to Toowoomba with the express purpose of buying up toilet paper but found the shelves bare so they continued on to Pittsworth, another 40Kms away, where they found the same bar shelves. Not to be daunted over this they went another 40km to millmerran where they bought everything on the shelves loaded up their vehicles and left.

Millmerran is now out of loo roll.

I have to assume these people were scalpers and not just your everyday fearful person in the street. So perhaps the government could make itself useful and introduce emergency legislation to make it illegal to sell such product at more than the recommended price: Just for a few months perhaps before reverting to normal commercial practice. This would be more to discourage similar activities with other products than solely for the once ubiquitous and humble loo roll.

Regards
Paul

EDIT: This story has been debunked. Full apology on next page (post #204)

[doug3030]

how to solve the TP shortage by Rob Cosman

YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwoMRjlDKWc&feature=em-uploademail)

[ian]

Using in your figures, Canada’s infection rate, as a percentage of population, is 0.00000606 and Australia’s is 0.00000758.

Where is this “1.5 times” coming from?
Population of Canada -- 37.6 million (source: Canada, Demographic Indicators
-
Google Public Data Explorer (https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=z8mqirbqgu9tsm_&met_y=population&idim=country:CA&hl=en&dl=en) )
population of Australia -- 25.2 million (source: 3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics, Jun 2019 (https://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/[email protected]/7d12b0f6763c78caca257061001cc588/fa9c11f1913bdafcca25765100098359!OpenDocument) )

37.6/25.2 = 1.49 (close enough to 1.5 ??)

I'll accept your figures for infection rates because
1. the number of Canadians testing positive has increased very materially in the last 24 hours, and
2. I haven't seen the latest figures for Australia as it's still early Sunday morning in Perth, and
3. currently there's a PLUS 17 hour time difference between Sydney and where I live in Alberta meaning that with the rapid change in the number of confirmed COVID-19 infections comparison of infection rates are more than a bit rubbery.


The point I was trying to convey was that in Canada the restrictions on travel (essentially don't travel outside the country) and limits on venue size (maximum of 250 people) compare less than favourably with those currently in place for Australia (venue size limit of 500 doesn't start till Monday) and overseas travel is still mostly OK.


I was at my local nordic centre this morning (Saturday) and while the place was fully staffed and the maintenance staff were working outside, the place was fully taped off because it can accommodate more than 250 people. although the corridors, toilets and cafeteria (limit to 3 people at a time) were still functioning the centre looked like a ghost town.

[BobL]

Anyone seen the ads? The ones I’ve seen are about as attention grabbing as a blank hospital ward wall, Too little, too late, too slow, too confusing, too much political backside covering, too selfish, too self serving, etc
i guess it’s business as usual?

[ian]

Too little, too late, too slow, too confusing, too much political covering, too selfish, too self serving, etcit's just too depressing



i guess it’s business as usual?That's the really sad part.
Once again Australians look across the ditch and think "why can't we be more like ..."

[Simplicity]

Too little, too late, too slow, too confusing, too much political covering, too selfish, too self serving, etc
i guess it’s business as usual?

Bob,
Has put it put perfectly,

The real problem is investment,
If we all just sit inside for a few weeks take a breather extra.

But all I hear on the news is sports are cancelled($)
This is canceled($)
Extra

As for Scotty,well he showed his true marketing colours during the fires.
Sorry Rant over,

Cheers Matt.

[Beardy]

As an isolated nation with a small population and only small pockets of population densities, you would like to think we have a better scenario than most countries to deal with the situation

Lets hope our fearless leaders are up to the challenge.