CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[Simplicity]

One of my friends died last week from Covid-19. In the UK.

Regards from Perth

Derek

My condolences Derek.

Cheers Matt

[doug3030]

There was a health care worker who died of Covid-19 last week in Melbourne. I knew his wife, Jools used to work with her.

[FenceFurniture]

Sorry to hear that about your friend Derek.



I'm currently watching the White House briefing live (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/14/coronavirus-us-live-donald-trump-briefing-deaths-rise-cuomo-fauci-latest-news-updates). Trump has just announced that he is suspending funding to WHO, and has gone on a long diatribe condemning the organisation. There will be a very lively q&a session at the end...especially after yesterday when he declared that the president has absolute power in a situation like this.

[BobL]

Similar to Bobl watching the Italian situation closely I have been reading the Dutch papers and news.
Today I found out that the Dutch statistics only cover the infection rate and death numbers of those tested for the virus, anyone dying that only saw a GP and not tested, was not counted.
Very few were tested because of lack of tests available so I do not trust the figures from Netherlands. I presume that is the same for a lot of countries.


In the UK and Italy many people dying in aged care facilities are not being counted. Some 90 care facilities in the UK are apparently rife (staff and residents) with COVID19. Estimates for the UK is that the death rate is bout 20% too low.

[Kuffy]

Derek, the actual problem is that the virus is real and the decisions to tackle it head on via my preferred method of eradication or the bad method of herd immunity both come with a cost that is more than anyone make a decision on. So "essential workers" like me are needed to continue doing there thing which will likely bring about the decision of herd immunity being forced upon us.

[NeilS]

One of my friends died last week from Covid-19. In the UK.


Sorry to hear of your loss, Derek.

[Tonyz]

report on Adelaide news a D...head tried off loading $10.000 worth of TP and sanitiser on ebay..had that shut down so dipstick returns to supermarket and they told him to store it in a safe place.:oo: :D

[bueller]

report on Adelaide news a D...head tried off loading $10.000 worth of TP and sanitiser on ebay..had that shut down so dipstick returns to supermarket and they told him to store it in a safe place.:oo: :DHopefully that safe place is somewhere the sun doesn't shine. What a tool.

[NeilS]

This ...thing... keeps getting worse.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2020/03/30/2020.03.25.006213.full.pdf



As explained to me by an immunologist in simple language that I might understand...

"Viruses hitting the human host for the first time" behave in very different ways to when it's in its reservoir host/s.

When a virus is new to a host population its variants become more or less successful at keeping the host alive and active enough to pass the code on to more individuals. Until then some variants are more or less contagious, others are more or less debilitating (thus reducing transmission rates) and other strains are so debilitating it result in an earlier death and higher mortality rates in the new host population.

A more deadly variant isn't necessarily more successful for the virus (and definitely not for us humans), but that virus 'experiment' can emerge from the mutations at any time. Slowing the rate of transmission also has the advantage of slowing down the rate of mutation (I think I understood that). If you throw the dice less often you get less variation. Some viruses also throw off more mutations than others.

We don't know yet where the Covid-19 mutations will take us with all of that. Dampening its spread will give us time to understand it and do things like develop effective and safe vaccines for the most prevalent strains.

The reference H1N1-1918 flu virus demonstrates how a virus can quickly mutate when the spread is rapid and how the variants can have very different impacts on us, but also that (other than its initial success) it hasn't been one of the more successful viruses, only achieving one significant return so far. However, any one of the flu types could come back with a vengeance for which Covid-19 will be a good drill.

One of the most successful viruses has been the 200 variants of the common cold that just keep mutating a little bit each season so that we don't develop immunity, making us miserable with the symptoms but not enough to stop us spreading it.

[Tonyz]

Hopefully that safe place is somewhere the sun doesn't shine. What a tool.

I think the reporter would have loved saying that but it was on ABC after all.

[poundy]

report on Adelaide news a D...head tried off loading $10.000 worth of TP and sanitiser on ebay..had that shut down so dipstick returns to supermarket and they told him to store it in a safe place.:oo: :D
From news.com.au the video response by the exec was awesome :) Supermarket boss’s blunt reply to toilet paper hoarder wanting refund (https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/supermarket-bosss-blunt-reply-to-toilet-paper-hoarder-wanting-refund/news-story/985cc7022ce371a71b7d86c3031e2ce5)
This is apparently an earlier ditty the guy did.... YouTube (https://youtu.be/cXzwWP9lmRo) (NSFW)

[NeilS]

If you asked someone in the small community of NW Tassie 10 days ago if they knew anyone with Covid-19 the chances are they would have almost all answered no.


471744
Source (https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/6721470/the-nw-coast-as-epicentre-of-covid-19/)

Today there are over 100 cases there. Ask them again now and I expect many in that NW Tassie community will know somebody who has it and if not already then they will in the coming days as the numbers grow.

The percentage of those tested (targeted at those who were though to be at high risk of contracting it) have returned a 10% positive result. Source (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-15/coronavirus-tasmania-premier-backs-testing-blitz-in-north-west/12149042)

The two regional hospitals are now closed. If you end up in hospital or an ICU for any reason you are going to be a long way from your local community, ie if they manage to get you there in time. Not a nice prospect having spent a few stints in hospital myself and with others that were seriously ill.

[GraemeCook]

report on Adelaide news a D...head tried off loading $10.000 worth of TP and sanitiser on ebay..had that shut down so dipstick returns to supermarket and they told him to store it in a safe place.:oo: :D


Similar story doing the rounds down here.

Allegedly, someone tried to sell 5,600 rolls of toilet paper on eBay and Gumtree, and was promptly delisted. Then tried to sell it back to major supermarkets:

One declined as they could not be sure that the product was "virus free", and
Other offered to buy it all - at wholesale prices.


Probably an urban myth.

[poundy]

If you asked someone in the small community of NW Tassie 10 days ago if they knew anyone with Covid-19 the chances are they would have almost all answered no.


471744
Source (https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/6721470/the-nw-coast-as-epicentre-of-covid-19/)

Today there are over 100 cases there. Ask them again now and I expect many in that NW Tassie community will know somebody who has it and if not already then they will in the coming days as the numbers grow.

The percentage of those tested (targeted at those who were though to be at high risk of contracting it) have returned a 10% positive result. Source (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-15/coronavirus-tasmania-premier-backs-testing-blitz-in-north-west/12149042)

The two regional hospitals are now closed. If you end up in hospital or an ICU for any reason you are going to be a long way from your local community, ie if they manage to get you there in time. Not a nice prospect having spent a few stints in hospital myself and with others that were seriously ill.Could not agree more, this kind of escalation is why the approach, that might seem heavy handed, is the only way to have this really addressed. The other example is the person in Western Sydney who exhibited minimal symptoms but still went to work, now there are a total of 10 confirmed cases and several other people in isolation in case they come down with it.

[GraemeCook]

News media routine states that Australia is not doing as well as New Zealand but a lot better than USA and UK in the battle against coronavirus but it is difficult to compare figures because od the very different population sizes of the countries.

I tried to standardise the comparisons by looking at daily new cases per million of population. All coronavirus and population figures were sourced from worldometers at 12 noon today. But some massaging was needed. First the daily new cases for Australia from raw data.

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The spikes and troughs in the data are not really what one would expect. My guess is that they reflect imperfections in the clerical process of assembling the data. For example, front line medical staff may not see the statistics as a high priority and my send yesterday's data off to HQ today, or tomorrow. Some data may arrive after the stats clerk goes home. etc. So I decided to smooth the data somewhat using simple three and five day moving averages: see next post.

[Tccp123]

If you asked someone in the small community of NW Tassie 10 days ago if they knew anyone with Covid-19 the chances are they would have almost all answered no.
Today there are over 100 cases there. Ask them again now and I expect many in that NW Tassie community will know somebody who has it and if not already then they will in the coming days as the numbers grow.

Surprise, surprise someone has cherry picked NW Tassie as the exception to the rule. Not unexpected as this is certainly a major outbreak when compared with the rest of Australia. I might add this occurred after lockdown had been brought into effect which would seemingly question the effectiveness of lockdown.

But my point was that "in Australia" this problem doesn't have anywhere near the same degree of importance as it does in say NYC. If I lived in NYC I'd never leave home without being fully kitted up in PPE. But I don't live in NYC so my chances of coming into contact with a carrier are still something like 1:10,000. Still good odds IMO. To fine some poor guy $1652 because he set off to go mountain biking BY HIMSELF is the ultimate in stupidity (and there are plenty of other examples of this jackboot behaviour).

My other question was what do we do once the virus has been eradicated from Australian soil? Presumably it is still active in other countries so that would suggest we cease all contact with them (AKA "close our borders"). That means no tourism, no exports, no imports blah, blah, blah... Where's the money coming from? How do you think that $130bn was funded?

I can't see an alternative to herd immunity but I'm open to ideas. Anyone?

[GraemeCook]

I smoothed the bar charts using three and five day moving averages.

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Noting that no graphical depiction is perfect, My assessment is that the 5-day moving average gives the best depiction of reality, minimising the distractions of data eccentricities.

[GraemeCook]

I then plotted the same five day moving averages for daily new cases per million of population and Australia and USA.

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After adjusting for population, Australia is doing significantly better than the USA.

Also note that the daily number of new cases in the USA appears to have peaked and may be starting to decline. But still at a worrying level!

[GraemeCook]

I then plotted the same data for Australia and UK.

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Australia also seems to be doing much better than the UK.

On a per capita basis the UK still has slightly fewer cases than the USA but its cases are still increasing exponentially. It may reach or even pass the USA rate.

[GraemeCook]

This did surprise me. The same data for Australia and New Zealand - note that the y-axis has been rescaled.

471761

As expected, this shows that initially New Zealnd did better than Australia at fighting the virus. Their PM moved early and decisively.

But Australia is recovering quicker than NZ. This did surprise me.

Both countries rates and performance are really quite incredible when compared elsewhere.

[Beardy]

The


My other question was what do we do once the virus has been eradicated from Australian soil? Presumably it is still active in other countries so that would suggest we cease all contact with them (AKA "close our borders"). That means no tourism, no exports, no imports blah, blah, blah... Where's the money coming from? How do you think that $130bn was funded?

I can't see an alternative to herd immunity but I'm open to ideas. Anyone?

I think that is the main question, there is a solution to dealing with the virus short term but then what ? There might not be a medical solution for years if ever???
I haven’t really heard much said about how life will be after the initial/ current phase

[Bohdan]

I haven’t really heard much said about how life will be after the initial/ current phase

It's called herd immunity. The only people around will be those that it didn't kill, just like after 1918/19.

[justonething]

This did surprise me. The same data for Australia and New Zealand - note that the y-axis has been rescaled.

471761

As expected, this shows that ,initially New Zealnd did better than Australia at fighting the virus. Their PM moved early and decisively.

But Australia is recovering quicker than NZ. This did surprise me.

Both countries rates and performance are really quite incredible when compared elsewhere.

I find that its difficult to compare countries by the number of cases, because of the extent of testing is different and also the counting of cases are different. In New Zealand, they have included probable cases in some of their figures. But looking at the picture, New Zealand is about 2 weeks behind Australia in its progress of cases, probably indicating that it took 2 weeks longer to reach NZ.

On another note, while I think the Govt has done a good job of containing the spread, I really think we are the lucky countries. Govt, and its citizens, our more remote location/island all work together to bring this about.

[Greg Ward]

Not necessarily.
Just like the annual flu shot, in a year or so, we may be able get an annual virus shot.
Researcher interviewed from the US this morning said they have been working on this since SARS, i.e. for around 7 years. She said that in the US they hope to have a vaccine that will be available for first responders by their autumn, then be able to produce enough to vaccinate the whole community by their spring next year.
Let's hope she's correct.

[Tccp123]

How about this from a news site tonight:

“It’s important to note that there has been no known case of people contracting coronavirus on-board an aircraft anywhere in the world. This includes instances where a passenger has later turned out to have travelled while infected.”

With Virgin going out of business I'd be keen to see what they're selling their s/h planes for? Buy one, stick it on a block of land and live in it. Instant immunity!

[Beardy]

You would die from the plane food

[BobL]

Graeme, you can's really start those graphs at low case rates.
Try restarting the graphs when they both reach say 10 cases.

[BobL]

How about this from a news site tonight:

“It’s important to note that there has been no known case of people contracting coronavirus on-board an aircraft anywhere in the world. This includes instances where a passenger has later turned out to have travelled while infected.”

This is probably because of their vertical ventilation method. This seems to be aN "elephant in the room" issue that is not being used from hospitals, restaurants ETC.



With Virgin going out of business I'd be keen to see what they're selling their s/h planes for? Buy one, stick it on a block of land and live in it. Instant immunity!

Planes can be brought real cheap in the US. Getting them to where you want "legally" is gonna cost 10's to 100's of $k

[GraemeCook]

Graeme, you can's really start those graphs at low case rates.
Try restarting the graphs when they both reach say 10 cases.


Technically correct, Bob, but it's the overall visual profile that is important. I went for simplicity - using dual x-axis would be rather confusing to some forum items.

[GraemeCook]

Do you think Carnival Cruises and its management will survive?



I very much doubt they'll go broke. Their assets reported as at 2019 are USD45 billion, revenue USD20 billion and a gross profit percentage which would make any CEO drool. They are the biggest player in the cruise business with a stable including Carnival (obviously), P&O, Holland America, Costa, Cunard etc. BTW, they pay no tax, probably as a result of their interest bill.

Whoever's holding their notes would be crazy to call them in. In normal times, it's a very sound business and things will return to normal in time. The market has panicked, as it's wont to do. It would be good buying at current prices but don't expect a divvy for a while.

mick


Up until January I would have agreed with you, but then things changed drastically.

The companies may be based in Miami and traded on the New York and London stock exchanges, but they are incorporated in tax havens and their ships are registered with flags of convenience. They are real parasites and have eroded their political capital.

Now they have close to zero revenue, their major assets, the ships, are either docked or searching for somewhere to dock. Wonder what current "valuation" is?

They have also got a massive number of extremely upset passengers. The law suits will start to flow very soon. Carnival accounts to just under 40% of cruise passengers but almost 80% of coronavirus cases - the lawyers will surely seize on this dichotomy. "why do the other 60% or cruise ships account for only 20% of cases, so far."

I do not think that the cruise market will be so foregiving.

My prediction is that Carnival will file for bankruptcy protection within six months. In the US this is known as Chapter 11 protection.

[GraemeCook]

I find that its difficult to compare countries by the number of cases, because of the extent of testing is different and also the counting of cases are different. In New Zealand, they have included probable cases in some of their figures. But looking at the picture, New Zealand is about 2 weeks behind Australia in its progress of cases, probably indicating that it took 2 weeks longer to reach NZ.

On another note, while I think the Govt has done a good job of containing the spread, I really think we are the lucky countries. Govt, and its citizens, our more remote location/island all work together to bring this about.


You are right, JOT, but it is the best available data. Every country must and does under report cases, unless they do 100% testing, there are zero false negatives, zero false positives and zero infections between test date and publishing date. But the important issue is the gestalt of the charts, not the minutiae. Look at the chart profiles.

My view, based on a little manipulation of those bar charts is that NZ is about 5-6 days later then Aus, rather than 2 weeks.

finally, agree that it is a team result; Team Australasia has done a great job. Geography has helped, but the human effort was/is critical.

[poundy]

Surprise, surprise someone has cherry picked NW Tassie as the exception to the rule. Not unexpected as this is certainly a major outbreak when compared with the rest of Australia. I might add this occurred after lockdown had been brought into effect which would seemingly question the effectiveness of lockdown.

But my point was that "in Australia" this problem doesn't have anywhere near the same degree of importance as it does in say NYC. If I lived in NYC I'd never leave home without being fully kitted up in PPE. But I don't live in NYC so my chances of coming into contact with a carrier are still something like 1:10,000. Still good odds IMO. To fine some poor guy $1652 because he set off to go mountain biking BY HIMSELF is the ultimate in stupidity (and there are plenty of other examples of this jackboot behaviour).

My other question was what do we do once the virus has been eradicated from Australian soil? Presumably it is still active in other countries so that would suggest we cease all contact with them (AKA "close our borders"). That means no tourism, no exports, no imports blah, blah, blah... Where's the money coming from? How do you think that $130bn was funded?

I can't see an alternative to herd immunity but I'm open to ideas. Anyone?

The Tassie hotspot is clearly showing how quickly escalation can happen. And it's showing that the little shortcuts that some people think they are "safe" doing are actually big deals. Again, the problem we're trying to solve for is to not put everyone in hospitals lining up for ventilators at the same time. This certainly is not cherry picking; again, this is the example that nobody wants to follow.

You've watched the simplistic demonstration of an epidemic's spread yeah? YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs) Even if they're not representative of a population's actual behaviours, they do show how social distancing and restrictive transfer between populations can go a significant way to protecting us all.

How we exit from here is going to be interesting - and I don't claim to have any idea what will happen or when. In this regard I can only sit back and watch what the medical experts and the people who have much more information available to them than we do, guide us through. There's no way I'd expect that we'll get to the point where we could say we have eradicated it from Australian soil.

Just on mountain biking. The reason the rules should have to apply equally to this is that it's not dissimilar to not driving unnecessarily for holidays, there are additional safety factors that could put stress on hospital resources away from his "normal" area. And as we learn more about the virus, unlike walking along the footpath or riding along the edge of a road where there's room for you to take slightly different paths to everyone else, MTB tends to be single file with little wiggle room, so anything left behind from a previous rider becomes a hazard for you that you can't avoid (and probably didn't know you needed to)

[woodPixel]

... the video response by the exec was awesome :) Supermarket boss’s blunt reply to toilet paper hoarder wanting refund (https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/supermarket-bosss-blunt-reply-to-toilet-paper-hoarder-wanting-refund/news-story/985cc7022ce371a71b7d86c3031e2ce5)

He even has the facial expression to go with it :)

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[woodPixel]

This is probably because of their vertical ventilation method. This seems to be aN "elephant in the room" issue that is not being used from hospitals, restaurants ETC.

While visiting our local hospital, creatively named The Canberra Hospital, I saw last week a VAST pile of big HEPA like filters that had been obviously pulled out/replaced.

Must have been a thousand of them. Not some little toys, but the big ones like I saw you post once ages ago BobL, maybe 1/3rd of a sheet of MDF in size. Super thick, perhaps 15 or 20cm. Some were probably 50x50 and 30cm thick.

They look pristine. VERY nice! I was going to shanghai a few, then I remembered.... plague.

It seemed so fantastically wasteful (Mottainai). But I can understand why.

[Glider]

Up until January I would have agreed with you, but then things changed drastically.

The companies may be based in Miami and traded on the New York and London stock exchanges, but they are incorporated in tax havens and their ships are registered with flags of convenience. They are real parasites and have eroded their political capital.

Now they have close to zero revenue, their major assets, the ships, are either docked or searching for somewhere to dock. Wonder what current "valuation" is?

They have also got a massive number of extremely upset passengers. The law suits will start to flow very soon. Carnival accounts to just under 40% of cruise passengers but almost 80% of coronavirus cases - the lawyers will surely seize on this dichotomy. "why do the other 60% or cruise ships account for only 20% of cases, so far."

I do not think that the cruise market will be so foregiving.

My prediction is that Carnival will file for bankruptcy protection within six months. In the US this is known as Chapter 11 protection.

Graeme,

Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code doesn't generally mean the company goes out of business. It's the U.S. equivalent of administration, as we call it, which can mean liquidation but it can also mean that other debtors cannot sue to wind up the company when an administrator has been appointed. Assets are valued at depreciated cost or otherwise but not at their current earnings potential.

In Australia, the Ruby Princess has been a major story but it hardly caused a ripple in the international press according to my international correspondents. While the cruise companies might have been irresponsible to have accepted passengers after the pandemic was announced, the latter boarded of their own free will, including one of my sisters on the Costa Victoria and two old friends on the Greg Mortimer, I might add. It's hard to see any legal actions succeeding unless wilful negligence can be proven.

I had an interesting discussion with a mate yesterday about ports of convenience. The crews aboard get better wages, food and accommodation than they would have in their own countries. That's why they sign up. By our standards they're paid a pittance but they don't live here or anywhere in the first world. If it weren't for them, very few could afford a cruise. Compare the cost of the Broome-Darwin cruises with Australian crews versus what you get with Carnival or Royal Caribbean. Of course, the tax havens are another matter...

Time will tell,

mick

[GraemeCook]

?......

Time will tell,

mick


Precisely.

[woodPixel]

...

You've watched the simplistic demonstration of an epidemic's spread yeah? YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs) Even if they're not representative of a population's actual behaviours, they do show how social distancing and restrictive transfer between populations can go a significant way to protecting us all.

How we exit from here is going to be interesting - and I don't claim to have any idea what will happen or when. In this regard I can only sit back and watch what the medical experts and the people who have much more information available to them than we do, guide us through. There's no way I'd expect that we'll get to the point where we could say we have eradicated it from Australian soil....

Poundy, spot on. Your other point were exactly correct, but I thought to comment on just these, as they twigged with a post-grad thing my daughter did last year.

It was a statistical analysis of TB in Algeria. All the reports were in French so I translated it for her.... so it was a lot of reading!

The Algerians problems in crushing TB, which is horrific in its social, economic and environmental impact, are the same as the points you raised.

Getting the genie back in the bottle requires cooperative society wide changes. People, cultures and essential rights need to be subserviated for the greater good. Tracking individuals, changing culture and habits, removing taboos, proper treatment, getting people to hospitals, all of these things were (are) a massive undertaking in a poor country like Algeria.

Treatment, and providing an EFFECTIVE vaccine, cost something like 43 cents. It stops it dead..... BUT the population harvested and continued to construe all sorts of myths about the treatment and recoveries that hamper efforts to this day.

Stupidities abound, like those treated are forever "tainted". Hiding those so diseased from a fear of ostracism. Anti-Government conspiracies. Corruption. Coverups. People questioning the veracity of the science (those who do so had/have ZERO education).

.... FOURTY THREE CENTS....


TCCP123, I keep reading your posts and it only keeps vividly bringing back every single argument for the reasons behind the failure of eradicating TB in Algeria. Many of the points you raise are the same as those who oppose treatments, for whatever reasons, that leave their country on its knees.

I don't think you get it.

Man, I think you really need to have a bloody good hard long think about the types of media you read and the messages you are adsorbing from them, because, frankly, they are misleading you. You are dangerously ill-informed and many of the postulates you put forward are so identical to the naysayers within the Algerian problem that its scary.

The Algerian culture faces a lot of hurdles, but they aren't stupid. They know where the problems lay and might I say, euphemistically, they are addressing them.

There may be a time, here in Australia, where such problems may need to be equally euphemistically addressed.

Please try and see this pandemic for the real danger it is.

[ian]

This 30sec clip presents the argument for distancing very succinctly, I thought.

YouTube (https://youtu.be/o4PnSYAqQHU)
reminds me of this one YouTube (https://youtu.be/OJ9f378T49E)

[ian]

Of potential concern are recent reports out of South Korea that some cases that had tested negative to the virus after recovery have since tested positive again. There are a number of reasons that may account for that, but it is too soon to know the significance of this, if any.

South Korea Reports Recovered Coronavirus Patients Testing Positive Again - The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/10/world/asia/10reuters-health-coronavirus-southkorea.html)
the coronavirus is labelled "novel" because it is a "new" virus and no one in the community is immune to it.

Therefore it is not surprising that some people who previously tested negative to the virus are now testing positive to it.
Also, I understand that the tests being used to detect the virus have significant rates of "false positive" and "false negative" results. Ideally a Covid-19 test would be definitive, yes (>98% assurance) you have it, or no (<0.01% chance) you don't have the virus. My understanding is that the false positive and false negative results are greater than 15%.

What would be most worrying would be if a person who had previously been hospitalised because of the virus was readmitted after catching the virus a second or third time.

[ian]

LOADS! Where to start.....I was actually discussing this with a mate this morning.

There must be huge savings that businesses will be able to make. Less real estate for offices, desks, parking lots, cafeterias etc etc etc. Massive savings there.

Suddenly people will be able to work from Melbourne, Perth, Bullamakanka for a Sydney based company, and fly in one per month or something for a day or three. Stay at a colleague's house for some bonding.

Less traffic on the roads
Less stress
Less pollution from vehicles.
Less consumption of "stuff" (tyres, petrol, work clothes, make-up, and so on)
More room on Public Transport during peaks.
More Teleconsulting of all sorts of things (legal, economics, sorry, accountancy

Think of all those work computers that only get used for 8 hours a day in the old system. A massive share of them can go. All that office space real estate that is only used for 8 hours a day.

In short, and when we recover somewhat, I think commerce is going to severely disrupt itself for the better with a fundamental and seismic shift towards working from home permanently, with all that comes with that scenario. There will be opportunities that disruptors will make new fortunes from.

One thing is absolutely certain - there has never been a better time to become an IT professional - in all the associated fields of sales, service, programming etc. They are going to be in huge demand, travelling around to employees homes to do stuff to improve their efficiency.
Brett

your envisioned future is a very very dystopian one.

Prior to just now, almost 79% of the Australian workforce WAS engaged delivering services to other people. Scott from Marketing's "job keeper" initiative is really just a fudge to keep the official unemployment numbers somewhat under "control". In reality, almost everyone who worked in hospitality (deliberate past tense) is now unemployed. A few thousand will pick up jobs stacking shelves or changing adult nappies but the vast majority (>1,000,000) have suddenly appeared queuing outside Centrelink waiting (fruitlessly?) to be seen and get their details sorted.

There is a very good reason that the "New Start" below poverty level payments were doubled and became "Job seeker" ones. (Talk about massaging the optics !!)
Without "Job keeper" I believe we would be looking at an unemployment rate >30%. That's well into Great Depression territory.
Locally -- and admittedly the Bow Valley is a highly tourist dependent economy -- unemployment jumped to around 85% in less than a week.


With "nearly everyone" working from home long term Turnbull's internet "solution" will need to be replaced sooner than pronto. Internet traffic maps the population's spatial distribution so if everyone is working from home -- need I say more?


It will take a very very long time for the service industry to come back if it can ever come back.

[ian]

There you go again Bob "always planning for the worst,"

OK so we keep lockdown in place. We don't have any new infections. It's six months from now.

What do we do then?
well for starters, maintain the existing quarantine restrictions on all inbound passengers.
i.e.
you go on a cruise -- 14 days in quarantine in isolation at the dock when you get back.
you fly into Australia from O/S -- 14 days in quarantine isolation at the airport when you arrive.

Currently, I'm in Canada on an extended visitor's visa. If it's 14 days mandatory quarantine -- do not pass GO, do not collect $200 -- when I get back what should I do?

Uh??

[ian]

some edits for your
Interesting sms from a relative who lives in California.

“ Seems like good news for both Australia and New Zealand with the lock downs. Also seems like Commonwealth countries are doing lockdowns on a national level and following up with enforcement - friend from the UK said they are only allowed out to for one exercise/day and are stopping cars and people and fining if people do not have a legitimate reason for being out. Very different here - the federal government will not take ownership for anything and have left it to the governors and mayors for each of the states to decide on a state-by-state or even city-by-city policy - which is very haphazard and also has state bidding against state for equipment and supplies and then the federal government will come in and out bid and then give it to the state that Trump likes (read republican) or the state that has been most appreciative of him - he has even said “states need to appreciate him”.
unfortunately that situation is a direct consequence of the US constitution.
State governors (or in some instances State legislators) get to determine what should happen within their own state. The US President might be the Commander in Chief, but he (or she) has no control over what a State Governor does.
I may have mentioned this previously but the US System of Government is deliberately designed to be particularly weak -- the founding fathers' were obsessed with protecting the original 13 colonies from control by a future "tyrannical government" so deliberately set up non-democratic system where each state got to select who could vote for President -- aka the electoral college -- and other systems including that even the US military has to be specifically reapproved by Congress every TWO years.



Good that they are being realistic with the time for lockdown - here again Trump is itching to get the country back to work (only because if the economy is still in bad shape come election time in November he will not do well) - the medical experts are warning that this would be a huge problem and a return to where we were - he said he will listen but then make up his own mind - the good thing is that governors will make up their own minds on a state-by-state basis and that goodness California has a good intelligent governor who is making decisions based on medical advice. California is also doing well in flattening the curve and we are not forecast to peak until mid May - schools in California are closed until next academic year. “
same here in Alberta. Schools are closed till next academic year (first Tuesday in September) and all uni entrance exams (called diplomas) are cancelled.
Kids are all working from home.

[ian]

Aspects of your suggestions are not as silly as it sounds.

Just as wood working fine dust can be controlled by the use of ventilation the same could be applied to restaurants and I reckon I could set up a restaurant whereby the transmission of any breath base bug could be very significantly reduced.

1) diners wash/sanitize their hands when entering

2) Social spaced seating goes without saying - diners 1.5m apart. -- you've just reduced the seating capacity if the restaurant by a factor of 3 (1 m spacing) or maybe 8 (if you maintain 4 sq.m per dinner)

3) Vertical airflow curtains - a bank of HEPA Filters covering the whole ceiling dumping clean air down over diners to vents in the floor and recycling it back to the HEPA filters. -- total re build of every restaurant. $$$

4) Chefs, kitchen hands and wait staff in PPE - apron mask, gloves and face shield. -- double or triple the number of kitchen staff required. Think of the work duration of staff clothed in "space suits" during the recent Ebola pandemic.

5) Air flow curtains between chefs and food being prepared

6) Food covered immediately after cooking and uncovered only at the table in front of diner.

I'm surprised no one has set such a thing up - could be a good marketing opportunity.
The PPE could be theme styled eg punk, goth, renaissance, space age, grunge, wild west, etc could even be fun!
the answer is economics,

staff costs are increased by a factor of 3
$$ per table reduced by a factor of 4

meals now cost 12x what they would have previously.

[ian]

One of my friends died last week from Covid-19. In the UK.

Derek
Derek
That is so sad for your friend and terribly upsetting for your friend's family and loved ones.



As I look out the window here in southern Alberta, it's snowing lightly -- there was about 2" overnight -- and we are in an effective, but not rigidly enforced, lock down.
Covid-19 is spreading (not as yet rampantly) through the nursing homes in Calgary. In terms of number of confirmed cases, Alberta has completed almost 83,000 tests and detected around 1870 cases, 2/3rds of which are in the Calgary health zone.

All the schools, libraries, gyms, places of worship, restaurants, etc have been closed for 4 weeks now with the virus peak not expected till early May. (Will is finishing his HSC equivalent via home study.)
The stores that are still open are open for on-line or phone orders only. All deliveries are "touch free".
Currently there are no travel restrictions, but with nothing open why would you bother?
And I can't get my hair cut till the "public gathering" restrictions are lifted.


As I mentioned in another post, Banff is effectively a ghost town -- for a town that attracts >3.5 million visitors each summer (May to September) seeing no one on the street when we were there earlier in the week was confronting.
All the clothing stores are closed, and the Chateau at Lake Louise closed three weeks ago. About the only places open in Banff are the two supermarkets. Apart from purchasing fuel, there is no stopping between the Banff Park gates and Golden. I'm not even sure you can still buy fuel in the Lake Louise village. BTW, Canmore to Golden is over 160 km and Calgary to Golden is more like 260 km.
Canmore the is not as bad, but official unemployment in the Bow Valley (Canmore through to Lake Louise) is now about 85% of the entire pre-pandemic workforce -- and that number includes those laid off by the local councils.

[BobL]

Finally someone credible is talking about ventilation.


Good ventilation lowers riskTo mitigate the risk of catching the virus through the air, there are a few extra precautions. Good ventilation for enclosed spaces reduces the chances of the virus hanging around in the air, said Professor Morawska, who is director of QUT's International Laboratory for Air Quality and Health."We don't have quantitative data about this and, of course, every environment is different," she said.
"But what I do if I go to any place, I look around. How many people are there? How, according to my judgement, is the place ventilated?
"If I see that potentially it's not ventilated places, the risk is high, I don't go there."

There's more in this link if you want to read about it
Can coronavirus be spread via the air, and how do I protect myself? - Health - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-16/coronavirus-airborne-transmission-3-hours-covid-19/12146526)

[BobL]

Finally someone credible is talking about ventilation.


Good ventilation lowers risk
To mitigate the risk of catching the virus through the air, there are a few extra precautions.
Good ventilation for enclosed spaces reduces the chances of the virus hanging around in the air, said Professor Morawska, who is director of QUT's International Laboratory for Air Quality and Health."We don't have quantitative data about this and, of course, every environment is different," she said.
"But what I do if I go to any place, I look around. How many people are there? How, according to my judgement, is the place ventilated?
"If I see that potentially it's not ventilated places, the risk is high, I don't go there."

There's more in this link if you want to read about it
Can coronavirus be spread via the air, and how do I protect myself? - Health - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-16/coronavirus-airborne-transmission-3-hours-covid-19/12146526)

[justonething]

How about this from a news site tonight:

“It’s important to note that there has been no known case of people contracting coronavirus on-board an aircraft anywhere in the world. This includes instances where a passenger has later turned out to have travelled while infected.”

With Virgin going out of business I'd be keen to see what they're selling their s/h planes for? Buy one, stick it on a block of land and live in it. Instant immunity!

No one has proved that people can't catch coronavirus on planes either. The virus has an incubation period of 7 to 14 days, so passengers are not going to be sick straight after sitting next to an infectious person for a few hours. But basic probability theory tells us that given the crowded nature of seating and number of people catching planes, including those that are infected. The probability of someone contracting the virus on some flight is 1, i.e., certainty. But that's not the reason governments around the world stop people travelling.

I wonder what the name of the news site is, Flat Earth Chronicle?

[woodPixel]

Further to my earlier rant, which I'll go and trim back in a moment (to remove some of my ranty bits) there is this interesting article on the ACUTE volume of disinformation, scammers, charlatans, spammers, fraudsters and just plain criminals....

ALL of these scumbags are bad guys.

Social-media companies must flatten the curve of misinformation (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01107-z)

[ubeaut]

I received the below email this-morning, it was sent via Metalwork Forums , Contact us link.

In a time where Hospitals, front line workers and almost everyone else who cares in USA are still having major problems getting PPE no matter what you see or hear. I found this to be disgraceful.

I also notice NoniB, Katies and a number of other womens' clothing outlets have been sending out numerous emails saying they have supplies of PPE over the last week or so.

Neil :censored2:

Email received below: Bold and (Maroon bits) were done by me.

Hello,

We have available the following, with low minimum order requirements - if you or anyone you know is in need:

-3ply Disposable Masks
-KN95 masks and N95 masks with FDA, CE certificate
-Gloves
-Disposable Gowns
-Sanitizing Wipes
-Hand Sanitizer
-Face Shields
-Oral and No Touch Thermometers
-Swabs

Details:

We are based in the US

All products are produced in China

We are shipping out every day.

Minimum order size varies by product

We can prepare container loads and ship via AIR or SEA.

Please reply back to (contact email deleted) with the product you need , the quantity needed, and the best contact phone number to call you

Thank you

Debbie Silver
PPE Product Specialist

[Tccp123]

No one has proved that people can't catch coronavirus on planes either. I wonder what the name of the news site is, Flat Earth Chronicle?

That's not what it's saying. It's saying there has been no known case.

And you almost got it right with the news site, it was in fact news.com.au

[justonething]

That's not what it's saying. It's saying there has been no known case.

And you almost got it right with the news site, it was in fact news.com.au

Which is about just as informative as saying there is no known case of people getting coronavirus from swimming in a sewer, or for a long time, the tobacco industry claimed that there is no known case of cancer caused directly by smoking.

[NeilS]

That's not what it's saying. It's saying there has been no known case.

And you almost got it right with the news site, it was in fact news.com.au

That article has been broadly syndicated to various publishers, including..

Covid 19 coronavirus: Packed Qantas flight sparks outrage for ignoring social distancing - NZ Herald (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/news/article.cfm?c_id=7&objectid=12324839)

That statement about no known cases comes from a Qantas spokesperson. Case tracking will verify that, or not, in due course.

Interesting to see the regional case mapping for NZ at the bottom of that article. The cases are widespread and the density doesn't reflect population density, eg. Auckland has a lower number of cases than some sparsely populated areas like the far southern region (with about 1/16th the population of Auckland, ie. without counting the sheep).

[BobL]

Air flight SARSCOV case tracking has been undertaken but it's much more complicated than it appears.
Just waiting in a stuffy airport lounge next to an infected person for 20 minutes may transfer more SARSCOV that sitting for 3 hours in a well ventilated plane seat.

Here is a recent one for a 15 hour 350 passenger international flight
Lack of COVID-19 Transmission on an International Flight | CMAJ (https://www.cmaj.ca/content/lack-covid-19-transmission-international-flight)

conclusions

The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends contact tracing two rows in front and behind symptomatic cases with respiratory infections due to an elevated risk within close contact.(2) However, for both SARS-CoV and influenza, approximately 50% of airplane transmission has occurred beyond these rows.(3) Studies of airplane transmission are commonly biased by contacts sharing exposure risks prior to boarding the aircraft.(4) In our investigation, transmission may have been mitigated by mild symptoms and masking during the flight. However, the lack of secondary cases after prolonged air travel exposure supports droplet transmission, not airborne, as the likely route of spread of the COVID-19.


Studies have been done on flights for measles which is much more infectious than SARSCOV. Some cross infections have been observed although nowhere near as might be expected. This one shows how complicated the tracking is Contact tracing following measles exposure on three international flights, Germany, 2017 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6518964/)

[GraemeCook]

.....

Currently, I'm in Canada on an extended visitor's visa. ..... what should I do?

Uh??


Apply for a visa extension due to "extenuating circumstances".

Is it possible to return to Australia from Canada? Are there any planes flying?

[GraemeCook]

How about this from a news site tonight:

“It’s important to note that there has been no known case of people contracting coronavirus on-board an aircraft anywhere in the world. This includes instances where a passenger has later turned out to have travelled while infected.”

.....


That was a particularly dumb article by a journalist relying on the "no causal link" argument used for so long by the tobacco industry's propagandists.

Many people have tested positive to COVID-19 shortly after getting off and aircraft. What cannot be ascertained - the causal link - is where and when precisely did they contract the virus; was it:

before they started their journey,
while waiting in the airport departure lounge,
aboard the aircraft, or
after arriving (eg standing in the immigration queue)?

[NeilS]

...cherry picked NW Tassie as the exception.... I might add this occurred after lockdown had been brought into effect which would seemingly question the effectiveness of lockdown.

.....

But I don't live in NYC so my chances of coming into contact with a carrier are still something like 1:10,000. Still good odds IMO.

.....

That means no tourism, no exports, no imports blah, blah, blah... Where's the money coming from? How do you think that $130bn was funded?

I can't see an alternative to herd immunity but I'm open to ideas. Anyone?

Where to start... and finish.

Yes, the NW Tassie numbers are all after lockdown, but I was replying to ...




Do you have a problem with this statement?


Well I still don't know anyone with the virus, nor do I know anyone who knows anyone with it!



I do have a problem with looking at the numbers from the perspective of what are my chances of catching this virus (eg 1:10,000) as a basis for decision making. During this pandemic individuals have repeatedly demonstrated that they underestimate the risk to themselves, but more importantly they underestimate, ignore or don't care about the risk that they pose to others. And, until tested, nobody knows if they are carrying the virus or not.

There is overwhelming evidence that a high degree of compliance with physical (social) distancing is the most effective measure to control the spread of this and other viruses. That is not something that can be left up to individuals to decide on based on what they think is the risk to themselves.

A few isolated heavy handed actions by some law enforcement officers who perhaps didn't have clear enough guidelines on implementation is not a reason to weaken or abandon properly enforced distancing and isolation requirements.

On trade, yes important service exports like tourism and education will be impacted by extended border closures, but goods like minerals have continued to be exported and goods will flow in as exporting countries resume production.

There would have been no alternative to herd immunity (whatever that might mean with this particular virus) if we had done nothing to slow it down. Let a virus go unchecked and we can see how it could mutate like it did with H1N1-1918 into something that becomes devastating in the most robust members of the population. My idea (well not mine (https://grattan.edu.au/news/australias-endgame-must-be-total-elimination-of-covid-19/)) is that we press on with an elimination strategy and take well informed decisions on the easing of restrictions while closely monitoring for any resurgence of the virus.

Here in SA testing has been a priority and is one of the reasons why our case numbers have been high for our population size, and testing is now available for anyone with any respiratory symptoms. An important next step towards eradication.

[BobL]

Previous supermARKET survey 28 March



I counted about 600 people exiting the doors.
38 (6%) were wearing masks (I know masks offer little protection - to me its a sign of how serious people are about what is going on)
13 (2%) were wearing gloves (that includes SWMBO and the trolley collection guy) I'd rate gloves significantly more useful than masks - the feeltiest thing they're probably handling is the shopping trolley.


Latest Survey - same place but being mid week and we were there slightly less than half the time there were fewer people through the doors this time this time (only 201)
17% wearing masks (mostly Asians)
5.5% wearing gloves inlacing one bloke wearing one glove? Shopping trolley guy NOT wearing gloves
1 Bloke wearing full on safety goggles.

Even though its school holidays not as many families this time as last time.

[FenceFurniture]

one bloke wearing one glove?He'd probably just used his fingerprint to unlock his phone so he could pay - I've done exactly the same (one glove)


Shopping trolley guy NOT wearing glovesHe'd be a dickhead.

[Beardy]

I saw a lady in town yesterday that was wearing fingerless gloves

[Tccp123]

"Shopping trolley guy NOT wearing gloves
He'd be a dickhead."

I wouldn't have thought it would make much difference whether you wear gloves or not. The important thing is to not put your hands near your face and wash them frequently (or use santiser...)

[Tccp123]

"Shopping trolley guy NOT wearing gloves
He'd be a dickhead."

I wouldn't have thought it would make much difference whether you wear gloves or not. The important thing is to not put your hands near your face and wash them frequently (or use santiser...)

Or if you're unlucky enough to live in Adelaide where there is apparently a much higher chance (than the 1:10,000 that I've been quoting) that you'll have some sort of interaction with someone with IT.

[BobL]

Or if you're unlucky enough to live in Adelaide where there is apparently a much higher chance (than the 1:10,000 that I've been quoting) that you'll have some sort of interaction with someone with IT.

If I was the trolley guy at that particular shopping centre I'd be wearing gloves even if there was no IT around because some of the "shoppers" look pretty suss to me. I should add I do keep the car doors locked while I'm waiting for SWMBO.

[Tccp123]

If I was the trolley guy at that particular shopping centre I'd be wearing gloves even if there was no IT around because some of the "shoppers" look pretty suss to me. I should add I do keep the car doors locked while I'm waiting for SWMBO.

So you've been to Adelaide too? I went there last year and came away with the same impression. It goes a bit farther than Snotown...

[BobL]

Remember this !


Our solar PV installer said they aleady don't have supplies of some panels and he he only can get supplies of others for another couple of weeks worth of installs. Then he can take a much needed holiday and then he's in trouble. But tourism is already badly affected. OTOH more cruise ships are now headed to WA so that will help a bit.

[Tonyz]

So you've been to Adelaide too? I went there last year and came away with the same impression. It goes a bit farther than Snotown...

I did the same a number of years ago except place name was different called Brisbane what a bunch of clop dickh**ds your posts have just proved my point. Let me know when you plan on heading this way, Id gladly rearrange your hair style.

[FenceFurniture]

If I was the trolley guy at that particular shopping centre I'd be wearing glovesIf I was the trolley guy at ANY shopping centre I'd have been wearing gloves for years, ever since I'd started in fact. Remember what I said about some men taking a leak and not washing their hands...I have no reason to suspect that they would wash them especially to go shopping...or anything else. Even the simple common cold - no lockdown or masks or anything else for that matter in normal times. So someone with a cold goes shopping, coughs into their hand and then pushes the cart around, and the trolley guy goes home with a cold.

Come to think of it, trolley guys are probably one of the bigger spreaders of any contagion. They handle all the trolleys that have been touched with whatever, and then handle all the rest of the trolleys.

[Tccp123]

Come to think of it, trolley guys are probably one of the bigger spreaders of any contagion. They handle all the trolleys that have been touched with whatever, and then handle all the rest of the trolleys.

As usual you've missed the point. It doesn't matter whether they wear gloves or not they're still going to spread the germs. So it only matters to them. If they keep their hands away from their faces, and wash them as required, there's no issue with not wearing gloves.

[Tccp123]

And there seems to be this unhealthy obsession with "some men taking a leak and not washing their hands" :oo:

Isn't that only an issue if they actually pee on their hands? And if they do does it really matter? Last time I checked urine wasn't classed up the top of the "virus infection" table...

[FenceFurniture]

I tell you what old fruit, for an ex-IT person you don't seem to think things through very well. :doh: You have demonstrated it time after time in this thread. I'll spell it out for you nice and simply:

customer coughs into their hand, and pushes a trolley around
the trolley guy collects the trolley and gets the contagion (of whatever) on his hands (gloved... or not) from the trolley handles.
Without necessarily touching his face, he grabs the next trolley handle and puts the contagion on that, and so on, and so on.
the next customer to use that trolley gets the contagion on their hands
Whether or not he touches his face is utterly irrelevant to spreading the contagion to the rest of the trolleys.
If he has the nouse to wear gloves then he can take one off to scratch the itch on his face


It really is exceptionally simple!

Maybe you need another trip to Adelaide?

[Tccp123]

i tell you what old fruit, for an ex-it person you don't seem to think things through very well. :doh: You have demonstrated it time after time in this thread. I'll spell it out for you nice and simply:

customer coughs into their hand, and pushes a trolley around
the trolley guy collects the trolley and gets the contagion (of whatever) on his hands (gloved... Or not) from the trolley handles.
without necessarily touching his face, he grabs the next trolley handle and puts the contagion on that, and so on, and so on.
the next customer to use that trolley gets the contagion on their hands
whether or not he touches his face is utterly irrelevant to spreading the contagion to the rest of the trolleys.
if he has the nouse to wear gloves then he can take one off to scratch the itch on his face


it really is exceptionally simple!

Maybe you need another trip to adelaide?

rofl

[Tccp123]

I did the same a number of years ago except place name was different called Brisbane what a bunch of clop dickh**ds your posts have just proved my point. Let me know when you plan on heading this way, Id gladly rearrange your hair style.

Is this some twisted interpretation of positive self affirmation?

[Greg Ward]

I enjoy this thread but personal attacks are ridiculous and notwithstanding the current situation, you should all take a cold shower. We are in this together and snarky bitchy remarks are demeaning to you all.

[artful bodger]

And there seems to be this unhealthy obsession with "some men taking a leak and not washing their hands" :oo:

Isn't that only an issue if they actually pee on their hands? And if they do does it really matter? Last time I checked urine wasn't classed up the top of the "virus infection" table...


I doubt 5% of blokes would wash their hands after having a leak. You are only touching a bit of yourself. Who washes hands after scratching ones back?. Hell!, Bear Grylls even drinks his own urine if he is thirsty.

[Tccp123]

I doubt 5% of blokes would wash their hands after having a leak. You are only touching a bit of yourself. Who washes hands after scratching ones back?. Hell!, Bear Grylls even drinks his own if he is thirsty.


Thank you Artful Bodger!! I'm not the only honest one here!!!

Excellent video which I've forwarded on to everyone I know.

[Kuffy]

with regards to trolleys and also the hand baskets at Coles and Wooleys. Everytime I go there now, there is someone cleaning the new trolleys coming back into the shopping center. Each time I pick up a hand basket, the handles are wet because they have been cleaned not long before I got there.

Health (https://www.coles.com.au/customernotice/health)



Increased cleaning in-store

We’ve added extra cleaning and sanitisation to high contact areas of the store, including trolleys, baskets, checkout areas and self-service screens.

[FenceFurniture]

with regards to trolleys and also the hand baskets at Coles and Wooleys. Everytime I go there now, there is someone cleaning the new trolleys coming back into the shopping center. Each time I pick up a hand basket, the handles are wet because they have been cleaned not long before I got there.

Health (https://www.coles.com.au/customernotice/health)Yes, but that's now. I would think that might become a permanent move, certainly hope so. This pandemic will no doubt cause many permanent changes.

[Beardy]

Some people seem to have a germ phobia, shopping trolleys are no different to handrails , door handles, money, paperwork, shaking hands, lift buttons, public transport etc etc.
It is just part of life

[NeilS]

Or if you're unlucky enough to live in Adelaide where there is apparently a much higher chance (than the 1:10,000 that I've been quoting) that you'll have some sort of interaction with someone with IT.

Not just Adelaide, SA 'apparently' has a higher number of cases because it has consistently tested a higher percentage of its population than the other states.

Broader testing detects more cases and gives a more accurate measure of the infection rate. As a result, it should not be a surprise that SA was the first to get zero new cases on one day recently. But, of course, there is no guarantee that SA won't still have cluster like NW Tassie or another Adelaide airport emerge in the next week.

In the spirit of a bit of interstate banter: Having lived and worked in both Brisbane and Adelaide (also Sydney) I know where I would prefer to be tonight if I had to be in hospital with Covid-19.

Qld - 21 hospitalised, 11 of those in ICU, 9 of those on ventilators.

SA - 10 hospitalised, 1 of those in ICU, none of those on ventilators.

But, please keep up your bagging of Adelaide. Make it as unappealing as possible to those Covidiots that seem to keep showing up in the other states...:U

[FenceFurniture]

Some people seem to have a germ phobia, shopping trolleys are no different to handrails , door handles, money, paperwork, shaking hands, lift buttons, public transport etc etc. In winter I am certainly aware and cautious. As a result, the last cold I had was about 4 years ago I think, and that was despite living with someone that got at least one cold per year, presumably from students or the 2 hour train ride incubator twice a day.

Shopping trolleys get handled for considerably longer periods than the other things you've described there, but yes, they all have the potential, particularly shaking hands. In the times that I have had a cold I refuse to shake hands with people (with explanation of course).

[Tccp123]

In winter I am certainly aware and cautious. As a result, the last cold I had was about 4 years ago I think, and that was despite living with someone that got at least one cold per year, presumably from students or the 2 hour train ride incubator twice a day.

Shopping trolleys get handled for considerably longer periods than the other things you've described there, but yes, they all have the potential, particularly shaking hands. In the times that I have had a cold I refuse to shake hands with people (with explanation of course).

You sound like a bunch of pussies!

[artful bodger]

Some people seem to have a germ phobia, shopping trolleys are no different to handrails , door handles, money, paperwork, shaking hands, lift buttons, public transport etc etc.
It is just part of life


Yes it is part of life. Have not lived in Sydney for a long time but, "oh Boy", I did use to think about the hand rails on trains whenever I caught one. Germ phobia or not some things are not meant to be licked.

[doug3030]

This pandemic will no doubt cause many permanent changes.

Lets hope that the change in the atmosphere of the Woodwork Forums is not permanent. I have never seen such a situation where a number ofpeople are so determined to ensure that their own opinions prevail at the expense of all others. Not everyone here is so afflicted but there are enough of them to make this place very unpleasant.

[FenceFurniture]

I doubt 5% of blokes would wash their hands after having a leak. You are only touching a bit of yourself. Who washes hands after scratching ones back?.It's much more to do with how much bacteria has accumulated in areas that are prone to it, probably due to sweating I guess. Armpits, feet, crotch. Someone with smelly feet handles his feet - don't think I want to shake his hand either. Pretty basic hygiene. I think your estimate of 5% is probably quite low, but yes, there are plenty of males that think it's quite ok not to wash their hands after a leak. I'd be pretty sure that a survey of women would reveal that if they knew the truth about male hand washing frequency after toilet use, they'd be somewhat *taken aback*.

[A Duke]

So what is wrong with you if your feet smell and your nose runs?








You are upside-down.

Regards

[artful bodger]

It's much more to do with how much bacteria has accumulated in areas that are prone to it, probably due to sweating I guess. Armpits, feet, crotch. Someone with smelly feet handles his feet - don't think I want to shake his hand either. Pretty basic hygiene. I think your estimate of 5% is probably quite low, but yes, there are plenty of males that think it's quite ok not to wash their hands after a leak. I'd be pretty sure that a survey of women would reveal that if they knew the truth about male hand washing frequency after toilet use, they'd be somewhat *taken aback*.

I have never found women to be any better than blokes when it comes to being "really clean". Maybe I move in the wrong circles.

[FenceFurniture]

Whatever anyone thinks of the situation here, it could be a whole lot worse. In the last 4 weeks, the equivalent of 85% of Australia's total population - 22 million people - filed for unemployment in the USA.

[doug3030]

There's plenty of them out there

https://scontent.fmel7-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/91388589_10156929754586957_1158785187232874496_n.jpg?_nc_cat=103&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=DwKv2sELzv0AX8ZUY58&_nc_ht=scontent.fmel7-1.fna&oh=fcf27ce4b1e01a5171de08cbebfb8d29&oe=5EBE930F

[Glider]

As a boy in the 50s I recall scouring the neighbourhood on "junk days" and finding all sorts of WW2 paraphernalia. Shell casings, and gas masks were pretty common although bayonets were the most highly prized find.

I'd love to wear a gas mask in the local supermarket. It mightn't be very effective but the reaction of people would be priceless, especially with its accompanying havasack.

mick :)

[BobL]

I have never found women to be any better than blokes when it comes to being "really clean". Maybe I move in the wrong circles.

According to my mum the person with the cleanest hands and nails in her family was her blacksmith father. Unfortunately I never met him but according to mum after work he would spend many minutes vigorously scrubbing his hands and nails with soap and water, and finish off by cutting a lemon in half and crushing it skin and all AND vigorously rub it all over his hands. The citric acid and lemon oil combo not only removed every trace of charcoal/rust and metal filings, but left his hands soft. All 8 of my uncles and aunts have remarked on how clean and soft his hands were. I've used the lemon wash a few times when I had spare lemons after handling cast iron and it does indeed work amazingly well at getting out the black stuff then ends up in finger/hand skin cracks.

In a workplace study a few years back metal workers were found to have some of the lowest hand bacterial counts of any profession because theY tended to wasH their hands far more often than anyone else. I wonder if the use of tight fitting gloves has made things worse rather than better. Amongst the worst for bacterial hand counts was anyone who used keyboards, especially if not always their own. Office door handles and cistern buttons of the toilets used by these workers were also higher in bacterial counts.

[FenceFurniture]

Today's spreadsheet attached.

Points to note:


USA cumulative cases dropped by 3.6%, which is of course impossible. They must have reviewed the numbers....or summink
The above means that the USA death rate has suddenly jumped from 3.5% to nearly 5%, but they did have a 3 day increase in deaths of 36%
Russia, Singapore and Belarus were the worst 3 day % increases in cases.
21 countries are close to or above 5% death rates, 8 are above 10% (and 7 of them are EU)
Discounting China and Sth Korea, Australia is the lowest 3 day cases gain %
Europe is approaching a million cases (950k), and has 91k deaths

[justonething]

I received the below email this-morning, it was sent via Metalwork Forums , Contact us link.

In a time where Hospitals, front line workers and almost everyone else who cares in USA are still having major problems getting PPE no matter what you see or hear. I found this to be disgraceful.

I also notice NoniB, Katies and a number of other womens' clothing outlets have been sending out numerous emails saying they have supplies of PPE over the last week or so.

Neil :censored2:

Email received below: Bold and (Maroon bits) were done by me.

Hello,

We have available the following, with low minimum order requirements - if you or anyone you know is in need:

-3ply Disposable Masks
-KN95 masks and N95 masks with FDA, CE certificate
-Gloves
-Disposable Gowns
-Sanitizing Wipes
-Hand Sanitizer
-Face Shields
-Oral and No Touch Thermometers
-Swabs

Details:

We are based in the US

All products are produced in China

We are shipping out every day.

Minimum order size varies by product

We can prepare container loads and ship via AIR or SEA.

Please reply back to (contact email deleted) with the product you need , the quantity needed, and the best contact phone number to call you

Thank you

Debbie Silver
PPE Product Specialist

I am not surprised, they are just taking the lead from their President. Apparently, FEMA has diverted supplies of PPE and ventilators that are sourced by individual states to private companies so the states can bid for them. source: Planet America : ABC iview (https://iview.abc.net.au/show/planet-america/series/0/video/NC2014H013S00.)
Having said that, Why shouldn't GP and health practitioners go to Debbie Silver to procure a shipment of PPE.

[NeilS]

I doubt 5% of blokes would wash their hands after having a leak.

Although not completely sterile, fresh urine itself is relatively so. On the other 'hand', holding the siphon python is another matter. That depends on where it and your hand has been!

Cross contamination from faeces on toilet surfaces is by far the greatest risk from pathogens. The doors in public toilets that need to be pulled open to exit pose the greatest risk. If you only need to have a leak at a urinal the most hygienic protocol is to give the hand washing a miss, ignore the censuring glances from others, and wait for an inward coming patron to open the door for you to escape hands free. That might be awhile in a small county town...:(

As for farts and Covid-19 transmission, according to Norman Swan on the radio this morning, no bare arsed ones within physical distancing guidelines. Done wearing the usual masking apparel on the rear end, no problem!

[RossM]

... interesting to see the propaganda machine is ramping up the blame game, amplified by Murdoch media, pointing the finger at the Chinese bio-weapons lab.

And the Chinese response questioning the closure of Fort Detrick bio-weapons lab and subsequent spread of virus related deaths in the US in close proximity to it.
Links here (http://en.people.cn/n3/2020/0321/c90000-9670852.html) and here (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/05/health/germs-fort-detrick-biohazard.html)

Of course the latter is not getting much media traction.

Geo-political peurility.

[Greg Ward]

Speaking of propaganda, take a look at RT and CGTN.
That's how you do it!

[woodPixel]

471854

[Greg Ward]

Statistics.
This thread loves figures. Now from my understanding, 50% of the globe at Trump lovers, the other 50% are Trump haters.
Now, the few contributors to this thread all seem to be in the Hate camp, and there are no Lover responses, so I’m wondering why?
Is it:
a. Trump lovers feel so superior that they can’t be bothered to reply to the scribblings of deluded fools.
b. Trump lovers feel so inferior that they are fearful that anything they write will be treated with scorn and nasty responses from the superior intelligentsia.
c. Trump lovers can’t write.
d. Trump lovers can write but they spend so much time working hard on their businesses or making millions on the stock market that they haven’t got time to write.
e. Most forum members are so busy working on timber projects that they haven’t got any time to contribute to this post.
f. All of the above.

[GraemeCook]

...... Remember what I said about some men taking a leak and not washing their hands........


Definitely, now you should always wash you hands before .....

[justonething]

Statistics.
This thread loves figures. Now from my understanding, 50% of the globe at Trump lovers, the other 50% are Trump haters.


I doubt those are real figures. Outside of the United States - Trump supporters are in the minority.



I, for one, think he's a perpetual and petulant child, and I don't hate children.

[Fekit]

Now from my understanding, 50% of the globe at Trump lovers, the other 50% are Trump haters.

Some of us just don't care.

[GraemeCook]

As usual you've missed the point. ....


As usual you've missed the point. Repeatably.