CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[riverbuilder]

Is there a condensed version of this thread somewhere? Just the major important points would be fine.

[Tccp123]

Does anyone actually know anyone with the Corona Virus?

Anyone?

[BobL]

Does anyone actually know anyone with the Corona Virus?

My sister's, niece's, father-in-law was the first COVID19 death in WA.
But I don't know him personally.

[Tccp123]

My sister's, niece's, father-in-law was the first COVID19 death in WA.
But I don't know him personally.

And how old was he Bob?

[Tccp123]

And how old was he Bob?

Approximately will do...

[Beardy]

My wife’s cousin has it but she now lives in England.
My mate was admitted two days ago for further testing, he got the results back this morning with a negative outcome so is lucky to only have pneumonia

[Tccp123]

My question was confronting and got the reply I was expecting. But think about this, on a normal day in Australia approximately 434 people die of non-Covid19 related illnesses. That's every single day. Or if you want to use Italy as an example its 1753.

This is not the Spanish Flu. Nothing like it. If you don't believe me do a little research.

Don't be sucked into the hysteria. This is a herd stampede at its worst and it's taking us all with it... if we let it!

[doug3030]

My sister is convinced she has had it. She had flu-like symptoms and went to the doctor. She did not even meet the conditions to qualify for a test and was not even told to self-isolate. She self-isolated anyway and is finished her 14 days tomorrow. After that she believes that she has had Covid-19 and is now immune. Every family has one.

[Fekit]

Is there a condensed version of this thread somewhere? Just the major important points would be fine.

Yep, see below.

Looking at where you're from, if you have any pre-existing medical issues, particularly lung related, keep a low profile for at least the next six months. When things start to warm up again keep a low profile for the following six months, repeat ad nauseam.

Just don't forget that this thing is a virus.........they don't go away............sadly we will have this thing forever now. I know people are hoping and praying that it mutates into something less harmful......just saying...... I hope and pray I win the lottery every week....

[BobL]

And how old was he Bob?
77?
he had a pre existing condition

[Cgcc]

It might be true that 1743 people die each day in Italy, but that is why hospitals and the medical system is already catering for. Throw 600-900 extra all needing intensive care and you need all that extra hospital capacity to treat them. The fact that many people hit the end of their natural lives each day doesn't mean that substantially more dying well before their time, and adding to that number, is not serious.

Also the 900-odd day figures we've seen in Italy and low numbers here are *with* the strict measures in place. It's not representative of what Covid-19 would be doing if everyone just let it rip.

Pointing to relatively low numbers is like standing under an umbrella while it's raining and saying, "See, it's not so bad. I don't know why everyone's saying umbrellas are so important. I'm only getting a few drops. Let's not get hysterical about holding onto this umbrella."

[BobL]

My question was confronting and got the reply I was expecting. But think about this, on a normal day in Australia approximately 434 people die of non-Covid19 related illnesses. That's every single day. Or if you want to use Italy as an example its 1753.

This is not the Spanish Flu. Nothing like it. If you don't believe me do a little research. !

While I agree its not the SF, It's very difficult to make a comparison based on reported numbers alone.

In 1919 viruses were not know about and testing was based on symptoms which was often too late to limit infections. Communication was much slower, There were was nowhere near the level of health care, no antibiotics to deal with secondary bacterial infections that caused pneumonia (not unlike COVID19), ICU was a pale shadow of we have today, no respirators, limited understanding of epidemics so limited, late or no quarantining etc. Happening just at the end of WWI almost the entire worlds population were nutritionally challenged (there were also major famines in China and Russia at the same time) and generally in a poor health condition.
On the counter side, people today live longer with more, and more severe, health conditions and more people rapidly move around.

The Spanish flu was also not just one flu. The first wave was mild and had a low death rate (also not unlike COVID19), it was the second wave that knocked us for 6 and the same could happen with COVID19.

But the real reason that even a half decent comparison cannot be made is there were few systematic statistics kept about the Spanish flu especially in 3rd world countries and anyone that claims they know the numbers are fooling themselves. A lot of the deaths were estimates based on a few samples but the death rates varied widely from place to place, even within the same region. It is thought that as many people died of the flow on effects of the SF such as decimated medical workforce, reduced food production etc as died of the SF. Some of the SF casualty estimates are based on total deaths in the period as it was too difficult to disentangle the causes of death. Over time a number of research papers about spanish flu numbers published in prestigious scientific journals were found repeatedly to be wrong, and numbers have been revised back and forth for year.

I don't think this is the time to be making these comparisons. We have an immediate threat to public health amongst us now and anyone over 60 with one on more health conditions cannot afford to catch it at the same time as a bunch of other people. Also we need to be very careful about watching out for round 2.

[BobL]

Just don't forget that this thing is a virus.........they don't go away............sadly we will have this thing forever now. I know people are hoping and praying that it mutates into something less harmful......just saying...... I hope and pray I win the lottery every week....

Not only do they not go away they can easily mutate and become deadlier. This is what happened during the Spanish Flu. The first wave was mild and had low death rates (not unlike COVD19) compared to the following wave which the medical fraternity was just going to be a repeat of the first wave. What we have to be is better prepared for the possible Tsunami that follows. If the Govts had any sense they should start planning and investing NOW.

Maybe take out shares in PPE, sanitiser chemicals, Respirators, Rapid Response Biotech to make test kits, Coffins etc?

[NeilS]

The question:

https://www.woodworkforums.com/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by FenceFurniture https://www.woodworkforums.com/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (https://www.woodworkforums.com/f43/coronavirus-empty-shelves-233039-post2180115#post2180115)
He has access to an expert who is DNA linked to him (which means no bullsh).

The question was what does "He has access to an expert who is DNA linked to him" exactly mean?

Not quite sure, but he is possibly referring to either my siblings or my children with expertise in virology and medicine or perhaps he is referring to my friend who is an epidemiologist, but he is not DNA related.

Anyway, the expertise is theirs, not mine. But, I do listen to their advice and I couldn't repeat here what they say about those who are propagating the view that the current measures are an overreaction.

[FenceFurniture]

Neil, yes, you mentioned your son a few days ago, and IIRC you said he was an Immunologist or very similar.



Don't be sucked into the hysteria. This is a herd stampede at its worst and it's taking us all with it... if we let it!Maybe there's hysteria on Facebook and the like but I wouldn't know. Maybe there's a bit of hysteria in Sydney - I don't know, but I don't think so. Out on the street (here anyway) people are just going about their business. I think I may even be seeing a little more friendliness around - more people saying hello to strangers as we walk past each other, but I wouldn't necessarily expect that in Sydney.

Herd stampede? Well not yet, but recent weeks have certainly given us a glimpse of how quickly society would be able to break down in a full blown catastrophe, and that really is scary. Especially fights over bumroll (I'll bet there was more than just that one at Chullora). At this stage I'm not sure if some social media like FB and Twitter are doing more harm than good, because they are certainly magnificent in spreading junk stories to whip people into frenzies.

But what will happen to FB when the advertising dries up? It must have already gone down significantly. Will this whole procedure be a cleansing of our society as we knew it, or will it go the other way? Certainly it will never be the same again, one way or another.



Went for a walk to Woolworths this arvo and panic buying seems to have settled down - plenty of raw chicken (all cuts), plenty of bread, red meat, and so on. Toilet roll still comes and goes apparently. I was even able to get my favourite lamb steak for once. This is probably partly due to the restrictions they have put on purchase numbers, and partly due to freezer space having run out.

I do think it's important to try and have some fun with people when out and about in these trying times. When I went into Woolies they had some new green discs on the floor, about 400mm dia, with "Stand Here" on them.

So I did.

After a little while I looked across to the store greeter about 10m away, gestured to the floor, and asked "How long for?".
He called back "As long as you like, but we close at 8!"
Good answer! We both had a small giggle.


Having said all that, we must take this very, very seriously indeed - it's as infectious as hell. Trust the medical professionals. We have to hope there is no mutated second wave.

[ian]

When I went into Woolies they had some new green discs on the floor, about 400mm dia, with "Stand Here" on them.

So I did.

After a little while I looked across to the store greeter about 10m away, gestured to the floor, and asked "How long for?".
He called back "As long as you like, but we close at 8!"
Good answer! We both had a small giggle.
laugh out loud



which just happens to be the name of a radio show her in Canada

[woodPixel]

#4 has died of the bug at my nans care centre in Ryde/Mcquarie yesterday.

Makes all these theoretical discussions a bit more real....

[woodPixel]

Does anyone actually know anyone with the Corona Virus?

Apologies for the delay. Its 3am and no work tomorrow, so I played Black Mesa on Steam for hours and hours!

Yes. I live in a block of 180 units, divided into 3 buildings. The young bloke next door to me has it. His two co-renters abandoned him 2 weeks ago. He's been spending his time gaming, watching movies and getting outrageously drunk, quite often.

There is talk on the buildings Facebook group that a couple on the upper floor are infected, but everyone is being very deliberately polite in not fingering them. Stigma and all that.

There is also talk of two cases in the upper building, but I don't know the facts.

So, yes, this beastie is really getting around.

I dont know anyone personally.

[ian]

The Spanish flu was also not just one flu. The first wave was mild and had a low death rate (also not unlike COVID19), it was the second wave that knocked us for 6 and the same could happen with COVID19.
Just to emphasise the potential consequences of the first wave of the H1N1 (usually, and incorrectly, called Spanish Flu) outbreak in 1918, subsequent waves of infection were much worse, but fortunately by then quarantine measures had been much improved.

On 7 November 1918, the S.S. Talune docked in Apia. (Note that 7 November 1918 was about four days before the official end of WWI -- 11 November 1918, and approximately 12 - 18 months before the H1N1 epidemic's peak.) Although the ship had been quarantined in Fiji, passengers exhibiting symptoms of influenza were permitted to disembark in Apia. The result:
"The total number of deaths attributable to influenza was later estimated to have reached 8500, or 22% of [Samoa's] population."
Source: Influenza in Samoa - The 1918 influenza pandemic | NZHistory, New Zealand history online (https://nzhistory.govt.nz/culture/1918-influenza-pandemic/samoa)

[ian]

I can see strong social arguments for assisting our regional airlines, and possibly Qantas, but I fail to see why any charity should be extended to Virgin Australia.

Virgin Australia is over 90% foreign owned and largely by foreign governments whose pockets are far deeper than the Australian Governments.

Ownership of Virgin Australia
20.94% Etihad Airways - Owned by Government of Abu Dhabi
20.09% Singapore Airlines - Majority ownership (56%) plus “golden share” owned by Singapore Government.
19.98% Nanshan Group - Ownership is rather murky, but “…Nanshan (Corporation) is effectively the government of Nanshan (City of 150,000)…”.
19.82% HNA Group - Owned by Hainan Provincial Government
10.42% Virgin Group - British private company founded by Richard Branson.
8.75% ASX - Publicly listed shares.
Source: Virgin Australia Holdings - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_Australia_Holdings)


but it is not about who owns a company it is about how much they contribute to our economy. Virgin employs about 10,000 Aussies directly and then there are all the other businesses that provide services to them so the number for that business alone staying viable in Australia could easily be in the order of 50,000 jobs

but that is assuming that no other operator (including Qantas) is willing to step in and make up the demand.
Assuming that travel patterns return to pre-Covid-19 levels within 12 months -- not that big of an assumption -- most of Virgin's staff would easily find jobs with Qantas and Jetstar.

Think of how Qantas "bounced back" following Ansett's demise in the wake of 9/11.

[Beardy]

but that is assuming that no other operator (including Qantas) is willing to step in and make up the demand.
Assuming that travel patterns return to pre-Covid-19 levels within 12 months -- not that big of an assumption -- most of Virgin's staff would easily find jobs with Qantas and Jetstar.

Think of how Qantas "bounced back" following Ansett's demise in the wake of 9/11.

Grahams response was in reference to my post #860 about supporting big business in general and has highlighted Virgin.
Just the same, even if Qantas took up the slack on Virgins demise the jobs lost would be significant as you only have one set of infrastructure running V two. When Holden close , they don’t all get a job at Ford.

My broader point and not aimed at any business in particular is we need to have jobs to recover financially after this.

[Tccp123]

Pointing to relatively low numbers is like standing under an umbrella while it's raining and saying, "See, it's not so bad. I don't know why everyone's saying umbrellas are so important. I'm only getting a few drops. Let's not get hysterical about holding onto this umbrella."

And the problem with using analogies is that the wording can convey any meaning you wish. For example:

"See, it's not so bad. I don't know why everyone's saying umbrellas are a nuisance. At least they save us from the rain which the experts say will kill 4% of us if it gets on our skin"

[doug3030]

At least they save us from the rain which the experts say will kill 4% of us if it gets on our skin"

Can you please provide source and author for that expert opinion?

:thewave::thewave::thewave:

[Tonyz]

now is the time when I laugh at my kids about living in a country town and still have no neighbours...was getting tired of the 5 acre block...not any more.
wifey has always had a pantry full of food, convinced we could feed big family for 4 months, 2 freezers stacked with meat, buy from a farmer mate who culls his own lamb, pork & beef. Milk is the problem, dont even think of putting dried stuff near me, from the udder into the fridge

Feel (sometimes :rolleyes:) for those that live in cities....

[BobL]

Just to emphasise the potential consequences of the first wave of the H1N1 (usually, and incorrectly, called Spanish Flu) outbreak in 1918, subsequent waves of infection were much worse, but fortunately by then quarantine measures had been much improved.

On 7 November 1918, the S.S. Talune docked in Apia. (Note that 7 November 1918 was about four days before the official end of WWI -- 11 November 1918, and approximately 12 - 18 months before the H1N1 epidemic's peak.) Although the ship had been quarantined in Fiji, passengers exhibiting symptoms of influenza were permitted to disembark in Apia. The result:
"The total number of deaths attributable to influenza was later estimated to have reached 8500, or 22% of [Samoa's] population."
Source: Influenza in Samoa - The 1918 influenza pandemic | NZHistory, New Zealand history online (https://nzhistory.govt.nz/culture/1918-influenza-pandemic/samoa)

Even today indigenous peoples especially in isolated communities are usually a lot more susceptible to flus.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/01/140110103718.htmT

Prof Peter Doherty in that article

Similarly, as many as 10-20 per cent of Indigenous Australians died of influenza in 1919, compared to <1% mortality rate in non-Indigenous Australians. Hospitalisation and morbidity rates were also higher for Indigenous Australians,

and Professor Kedzierska in same article.

The genetic susceptibility of Indigenous Australian and Alaskans would have resulted from isolation of indigenous populations from the viruses like influenza. The indigenous populations were not subjected to evolutionary pressures caused by the viruses over the centuries.

[Tccp123]

Can you please provide source and author for that expert opinion?

:thewave::thewave::thewave:


"Experts" is a good subject because it seems we have a plethora of them. We also have a much larger "plethora" that is "DNA related" so expert advice is not in short supply.

The current UK expert in vogue is Neil Ferguson who heads an Imperial College, London team that has claimed 510,000 people in the UK would die from coronavirus if nothing was done. This is the same expert who in 2001 encouraged the unnecessary slaughter of millions of livestock (F&M disease) costing countless numbers of farmers their living.

He has since revised that number (multiple times) and now it could be as low as 5,700 his team is saying.

That is the problem with putting your blind faith in the experts. Sometimes they don't know either (but may not be in a position to be able to say that) especially if they have a flawed track record.

[Tccp123]

(usually, and incorrectly, called Spanish Flu)

Hahaha! Classic strawman. Well actually it's not called a spud, it's called a potato :).

For the uninformed it was so named because it appeared towards the end of WWI. At the time propaganda was used to the nth degree and although the SF was thought to have originated in the US there was no way they wanted to show any weakness by claiming ownership of it so it was called the Spanish Flu because Spain was neutral during WWI.

[Chesand]

Definitions of an expert;

Ex is a has been and spert is a drip under pressure.

Someone who knows more about less and less.

:D:D

[BobL]

Hahaha! Classic strawman. Well actually it's not called a spud, it's called a potato :).

For the uninformed it was so named because it appeared towards the end of WWI. At the time propaganda was used to the nth degree and although the SF was thought to have originated in the US there was no way they wanted to show any weakness by claiming ownership of it so it was called the Spanish Flu because Spain was neutral during WWI.

Perhaps a clearer explanation is, by 1918 SF was rampant across many countries but wartime press suppression did not permit the publication of much official data in countries at war. Because Spain was neutral it had a freer press and it was one of few countries that published official flu figures. When people saw the large numbers coming out of Spain that's why they called it the SF.

BTW there were many flus right through Europe during WW2 including an especially bad one going as far back as around 1915 in the staging camps on the North Western Front and mthere is plenty of evidence that at least one strain, perhaps even the main, of the SF originated there Flu epidemic traced to Great War transit camp - Health News, Health & Families - The Independent (https://web.archive.org/web/20090808003837/http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/flu-epidemic-traced-to-great-war-transit-camp-728112.html)

WWI camps with atrocious cramped conditions are thought to be much more likely breeding grounds than the alternative much cleaner and spacious US training camps.

Many injured US soldiers transited back and forth through those camps later in the war and they probably took it back to the US.

[Tccp123]

Yes. I live in a block of 180 units, divided into 3 buildings. The young bloke next door to me has it. His two co-renters abandoned him 2 weeks ago. He's been spending his time gaming, watching movies and getting outrageously drunk, quite often.

There is talk on the buildings Facebook group that a couple on the upper floor are infected, but everyone is being very deliberately polite in not fingering them. Stigma and all that.

There is also talk of two cases in the upper building, but I don't know the facts.

So, yes, this beastie is really getting around.

I dont know anyone personally.

Thanks WP, I couldn't have asked for a better reply :). I expect there will be plenty of "There's talk about..." everywhere, not just where you live.

And kudos for admitting "but I don't know the facts"

Sounds like the young neighbour who "has it" is bearing up well :)

[Tccp123]

...plenty of evidence that at least one strain, perhaps even the main, of the SF originated there Flu epidemic traced to Great War transit camp - Health News, Health & Families - The Independent (https://web.archive.org/web/20090808003837/http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/flu-epidemic-traced-to-great-war-transit-camp-728112.html)

WWI camps with atrocious cramped conditions are thought to be much more likely breeding grounds than the alternative much cleaner and spacious US training camps.

Yet another example of expert opinions differing. Bob's (possibly DNA related?) says the SF originated in a WWI transit camp and had nothing to do with spacious US training camps. My expert source YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDY5COg2P2c) (probably just as bad as Bob's) seems to say the opposite. It originated in a pig farm in Kentucky and spread wildly in those very WWI military training camps before being exported to the front where is became rampant and spread to other countries.

[NeilS]

Neil, yes, you mentioned your son a few days ago, and IIRC you said he was an Immunologist



Yes, Brett, I happen to have an immunologist in the family.

His advice: Go home and stay there, until advised otherwise.

His mother and I have been in home isolation now for over two weeks. That's for our protection. We are both 70+ and I'm an asthmatic, so in the most vulnerable cohort.

However, none of us is immune and all ages are potentially vulnerable regardless of their health status, as we know from the example of the whistle-blower Dr Li Wenliang who died at age 34 from CV-19.

The 'distancing' measures within the broader community will provide any one of us with an increased chance of survival when the surge in demand for ICU resources comes during the peak of the epidemic.

We greatly appreciate what our fellow Australians are collectively doing to minimise the impact of this epidemic and acknowledge that their considerable sacrifices in many ways is not without a real cost to most of them.

[BobL]

Yet another example of expert opinions differing. Bob's (possibly DNA related?) says the SF originated in a WWI transit camp and had nothing to do with spacious US training camps. My expert source YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDY5COg2P2c) (probably just as bad as Bob's) seems to say the opposite. It originated in a pig farm in Kentucky and spread wildly in those very WWI military training camps before being exported to the front where is became rampant and spread to other countries.

I didn't make any personal claims about the origins OF SF, I was quoting from an Independent newspaper article who was quoting a, John Oxford, Professor of virology at St Bartholomew's and the Royal London School of Medicine. I have subsequently tracked one of the original sources from the newspaper article.
Who's that lady? | Nature Medicine (https://www.nature.com/articles/nm1299_1351)
Published in "Nature medicine", I'd give it more credence than anything said on youtube.
No one does any fact checking or systematic peer review on anything said on Youtube - its basically just a gossip monger.
Wikipedia can be just as bad but at least there are sometimes links to peer reviewed publications that can be cross checked.

[GraemeCook]

Graeme

As some others have mentioned Virgin does employ many (don't know exactly how many) Aussies and that is good. I guess it is a shame that it is not Australian owned, but that is true of so many Aussie icons (Arnott's as an example) and more a subject for another thread as we have plenty of digressions as it is. I might lean towards assisting people more than corporations as I would expect that to reach the people most needy. ......


Paul, I fully agree with your humanitarian sentiment, but I think you can also analyse how the foreign owners are likely to analyse their options:

Step 1: Realise that their investment has a liquidity shortage - it needs a cash injection. Banks decline to loan more.

Step 2: Ask Australian government for assistance mentioning what great service they give to rural areas and what a great employer they are.

Step 3: Blackmail Australian government. "Give us $$$$'s or we will be forced to sack everyone and we will not be able to pay our creditors or repay our preferred creditors (the banks). Banks lobby politicians on cue. Professional lobby industry springs into action. Cash strapped company can pay lobbyists!,, but not employees!

Step 4: Assuming government stands strong; they realise their blackmail is not working. Crunch time; they now have two options:

support their investment and inject more cash, or
write off their investment.


They are simple commercial decisions.

The commercial reality is that most businesses will attempt to get welfare from the government if they think they might be able to. In fact, the Corporations Code requires directors to act in the best interests of their shareholders.

[BobL]

After bagging youtube this visually simulated maths is, at a minimum, interesting

It takes 20 minutes but you should hopefully gain a better idea of the control being pursued by the Govt.


https://youtu.be/gxAaO2rsdIs

[NeilS]

I have done a little Excel work ...... and right is population infection rate (cases/pop%).



I did something similar a while back, Brett. The two figures I was after were cases per million of population and death rate/m pop.

The first gives a comparative measure of the performance of a government with slowing the spread and the second a comparative measure of the performance of their hospital system.

Putting aside the problem with case identification from the different testing regimes, as we know the raw figures can't tell you how well a country is doing compared to others until you factor that in.

For example, back on 22 March (now well out of date) I got:

Reported cases per
million residents (C/MR )



<tbody>
Country
C/MR


Italy
886.17


Spain
542.64


Germany
265.63


France
221.53


Sth Korea
171.62


United States
77.48


United Kingdom
73.94


Singapore
73.84


China
56.28


Australia
41.49


Canada
30.23


Japan
8.02

</tbody>



This of course doesn't take into account when the virus began in each country and at what point each country is at in the epidemic's trajectory curve. That has to be plotted from a given number of cases (eg >100) and deaths (eg >10). But, none of the current graphs that do that, as useful as they are at plotting a comparative trajectories (eg Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as the pandemic spreads | Free to read | Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest)), are as yet providing a population adjusted plot or at least that I can find.

As of today, the US has many more recorded cases than say, Italy, but the US has 5.5 times the population of Italy and when weighted for their respective populations the US is doing considerably better per head of population. However, the story is far from over for the US as it may also be for Italy, etc.

Anyway, I gave up on updating my spreadsheet as it became too difficult to feed in the new data each day. Has anyone found an automated way of doing that?

[Bushmiller]

This may be an interesting link to the worldwide stats situation. If you click on a country on the left hand column it brings up more detailed information on that particular country, but then I couldn't work out how to go back to the "world" except by shutting it down and starting again.

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

Regards
Paul

[FenceFurniture]

Anyway, I gave up on updating my spreadsheet as it became too difficult to feed in the new data each day. Has anyone found an automated way of doing that?Not yet. I just entered the data manually from the Johns Hopkins site. It would be good to find something that is more or less able to be copied and pasted.

What does your data say the number of cases for Italy and Oz was on the 22nd?

[FenceFurniture]

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)That's perzackly the same site as the Johns Hopkins link (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html) goes to. :q

[Fuzzie]

What worries me is the stats for recovered vs new reported cases don't seem to be following similar trajectories yet. If most people recover the graph lines should sort of mirror each other. Isolation of healthy people is currently 14 days to just see if they develop symptoms. The time to recover once infected doesn't seem to be captured in the stats at the moment. I think this graph is indicating it has to be longer than 3 weeks. How bad is the average case going to be during those 3+ weeks. Will we still be able to look after ourselves in isolation if we don't need to be admitted to hospital? Is this why they are going to have rows and rows of beds set out in the Exhibition Buildings to care for the bad cases?

Coronavirus Cases: Statistics and Charts - Worldometer (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#newly-infected-newly-recovered)

[woodPixel]

now is the time when I laugh at my kids about living in a country town and still have no neighbours...was getting tired of the 5 acre block...not any more.
wifey has always had a pantry full of food, convinced we could feed big family for 4 months, 2 freezers stacked with meat, buy from a farmer mate who culls his own lamb, pork & beef. Milk is the problem, dont even think of putting dried stuff near me, from the udder into the fridge

Feel (sometimes :rolleyes:) for those that live in cities....


Ssssshhhh.... Golden rule of the Zombie Apocalypse is not to reveal the location of The Stash.... ;)

Our next holiday home :)

470700

[ian]

It takes 20 minutes but you should hopefully gain a better idea of the control being pursued by the Govt.


https://youtu.be/gxAaO2rsdIs
IMO, well worth the investment of 20 minutes

[woodPixel]

Thanks WP, I couldn't have asked for a better reply :). I expect there will be plenty of "There's talk about..." everywhere, not just where you live.

And kudos for admitting "but I don't know the facts"

Sounds like the young neighbour who "has it" is bearing up well :)

Its one of those things isn't it. Stats and news reports are one thing, but hearing a NEXT DOOR neighbour taping up the inside of his door is another.

I get the impression, from limited meetings, that he is a bit soft anyway. He doesn't seem to be taking it well. His demeanour, aggression, drinking, anger, 3am shouting-at-the-Xbox is getting a bit out of hand. I've reprimanded him on the building facebook page and offered him assistance for projects/item/necessaries (declined).

I can easily see it turning to vigilantism. There are two bikies here, friendly chaps, but they don't strike me as dudes who will take much of that kind of shenanigans without it eventually resulting in a chat.

Before long, I think we'll all have stories. My three Chinese contacts have not come back....

[BobL]

Here is a 30 minute podcast on how an Italian Village (Vo) conquered COVID19 by the Italian epidemiologist who was involved with the testing.
They tested everyone so within two rounds of testing and isolating the infected they had no more cases.

Jolly swagman podcast
#83: How An Italian Town Conquered Coronavirus — Andrea Crisanti – Joseph Noel Walker (https://josephnoelwalker.com/83-how-an-italian-town-conquered-coronavirus-andrea-crisanti/)

This is how testing should be carried out and follow up testing of possible asymptomatic candidates be performed.

I believe Australian authorities were not able to do this at first because of lack of testing kits but increasingly adopting these ideas in selected areas.

[woodPixel]

Paul, I fully agree with your humanitarian sentiment, but I think you can also analyse how the foreign owners are likely to analyse their options:

Step 1: Realise that their investment has a liquidity shortage - it needs a cash injection. Banks decline to loan more.

Step 2: Ask Australian government for assistance mentioning what great service they give to rural areas and what a great employer they are.

Step 3: Blackmail Australian government. "Give us $$$$'s or we will be forced to sack everyone and we will not be able to pay our creditors or repay our preferred creditors (the banks). Banks lobby politicians on cue. Professional lobby industry springs into action. Cash strapped company can pay lobbyists!,, but not employees!

Step 4: Assuming government stands strong; they realise their blackmail is not working. Crunch time; they now have two options:

support their investment and inject more cash, or
write off their investment.


They are simple commercial decisions.

The commercial reality is that most businesses will attempt to get welfare from the government if they think they might be able to. In fact, the Corporations Code requires directors to act in the best interests of their shareholders.

I saw a few interesting points put forward by some (the usual crowd) right winger biz-nuts.

-- If they need yet ANOTHER bailout (after 911, GFC), they fork over, or relinquish shares to the government...
-- If they've engaged in share buybacks to enrich the execs and shareholders, then they should just as well SELL more shares....
-- One wondered WHY individuals had to rely on savings and loans to survive. He conjectured, if "corporations are people" then why treat them differently?
-- Some, rather interestingly, for companies (such as shipping) use Flags Of Convenience. they pay tax in the Bahamas/Panama, but want a USA bailout (what!!?)
-- For those companies who have PAID NO TAX, why should the TAX PAYER bail them out? They are already profitless zombies and should be put to death!

Apologies for making this discussion financial :)

[FenceFurniture]

Coronavirus Cases: Statistics and Charts - Worldometer (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#newly-infected-newly-recovered)The data from there sometimes does and sometimes does not match the Johns Hopkins data, but it is a least able to be copied from the table on this page Coronavirus Update (Live): 722,196 Cases and 33,976 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries)
so maybe that might suit Neil's purposes?

Sometimes the numbers are the same, sometimes higher, sometimes lower. I can understand lower than JH (not quite as up to date), but not higher numbers (given that Worldometers is getting their data from places like JH).

[woodPixel]

I don't think we can rely on those numbers being terribly accurate.

They are coming thick and fast. There is bound to be duplications and omissions.

It might take a while for everything to be tallied properly and heads accounted for, officially.

[NeilS]

....but then I couldn't work out how to go back to the "world" except by shutting it down and starting again.

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)



Yes, Paul, they didn't get that bit of Systems Science and Engineering quite right....:U

I just do a control refresh [Control R] on my Windoze computer. It is slow to reload, but like you it is the only way that I've found to get back to their overview dashboard.

Otherwise its quite good.

[FenceFurniture]

Yes, Paul, they didn't get that bit of Systems Science and Engineering quite right....:UNo, and surprising how many fundamental things like that can be missing from top-flight organisations' sites. Yes, just refresh the page fixes it.




I don't think we can rely on those numbers being terribly accurate. No, no set of figures will be up to date.

[GraemeCook]

What worries me is the stats for recovered vs new reported cases don't seem to be following similar trajectories yet. If most people recover the graph lines should sort of mirror each other. .....


Hi Franklin

I am not sure that that assumption is correct as all the reported figures are dynamic - the infection and recovery rates of the various countries and regions are affected by the actions of their governments and their populations. This is the major rationale in the video BobL posted (#936 above).

[NeilS]

The data from there sometimes does and sometimes does not match the Johns Hopkins data, but it is a least able to be copied from the table on this page Coronavirus Update (Live): 722,196 Cases and 33,976 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries)
so maybe that might suit Neil's purposes?



Yes, that page and several others out there allow you to sort alphabetically by country, do a copy then re-order by whatever other column you choose when you have loaded that data into your own spreadsheet, but you then have to manually enter in the population numbers in or do a fair bit of faffying around to get the rows aligned.

I did at one stage have a spreadsheet pre-loaded with the population numbers for the most relevant (for us) countries, but then some countries began to be added (like the British Virgin Islands and Timor-Leste) and then my population data was out of whack against the alphabetically sorted countries.

There are only three countries yet to record a case and when they are added the task will be easier. I might re-visit it then.

[GraemeCook]

Its one of those things isn't it. Stats and news reports are one thing, but hearing a NEXT DOOR neighbour taping up the inside of his door is another.

I get the impression, from limited meetings, that he is a bit soft anyway. He doesn't seem to be taking it well. His demeanour, aggression, drinking, anger, 3am shouting-at-the-Xbox is getting a bit out of hand. I've reprimanded him on the building facebook page and offered him assistance for projects/item/necessaries (declined).

I can easily see it turning to vigilantism. There are two bikies here, friendly chaps, but they don't strike me as dudes who will take much of that kind of shenanigans without it eventually resulting in a chat.

Before long, I think we'll all have stories. My three Chinese contacts have not come back....


Timely observation, WP.

Psychologists/psychiatrists colloqiually term this reaction as "cabin fever". It may become increasingly significant. And not just among those diagnosed positive.

Imagine the cumulative stress on someone with a mortgage, credit cards, young family, the whole catastrophe, who is stood down from work, only centrelink benefits, is in lock down in a small flat hoping his family is safe, and does not know whether his employer will survive....

[Tccp123]

Imagine the cumulative stress on someone with a mortgage, credit cards, young family, the whole catastrophe, who is stood down from work, only centrelink benefits, is in lock down in a small flat hoping his family is safe, and does not know whether his employer will survive....

A good reminder of what some people must be going through. I imagine most of us (on this forum) won't be in this position but plenty of others will.

[FenceFurniture]

I did at one stage have a spreadsheet pre-loaded with the population numbers for the most relevant (for us) countries, but then some countries began to be added (like the British Virgin Islands and Timor-Leste) and then my population data was out of whack against the alphabetically sorted countries. That's exactly why I am limiting my countries to 2000+ cases, plus they are the most relevant anyway (even using 1000+ limits it to about 45 countries atm). Then I can just add countries as they tick over into 2000+

Using yesterday's data, countries with 2000+ cases account for 92.33% of cases, and 1000+ countries are 95.66% of cases, so dropping out the <2000 countries won't skew the data very much at all.

Also, I think I'll only do every three days, because that's the doubling rate roughly.

[Fuzzie]

I am not sure that that assumption is correct as all the reported figures are dynamic - the infection and recovery rates of the various countries and regions are affected by the actions of their governments and their populations. This is the major rationale in the video BobL posted (#936 above).

They are not independent statistics in as much as the 'removed' cohort grows inversely to the number of infections in the model. At the moment there is a lag in the reported rate of change of 'recovered' cases compared to new 'infections'. That to me means we haven't started to see the real time it takes to recover figure yet. There is some mention that it takes 4 weeks to recover to the point of not being contagious. This is a good reason for placing infected people in the isolate box as well as practicing social distancing. If 4 weeks is the real time it takes to recover I presume we should start to see the recovered graph obviously trending upwards in about another 2 weeks, hopefully not a lot of extras will be in the 'removed' numbers.

[GraemeCook]

I saw a few interesting points put forward by some (the usual crowd) right winger biz-nuts.
.......:)


One of my economist friends, a former FAAS in Treasury, is fond of summing the views of the classic conservative business lobby as:

* capitalise the profits, socialise the losses, and

* "I am opposed to all government intervention unless it involves a subsidy to me."

[rwbuild]

470709 Infections relative to geography divided by population density

470710

[Beardy]

I saw a few interesting points put forward by some (the usual crowd) right winger biz-nuts.

-- If they need yet ANOTHER bailout (after 911, GFC), they fork over, or relinquish shares to the government...
-- If they've engaged in share buybacks to enrich the execs and shareholders, then they should just as well SELL more shares....
-- One wondered WHY individuals had to rely on savings and loans to survive. He conjectured, if "corporations are people" then why treat them differently?
-- Some, rather interestingly, for companies (such as shipping) use Flags Of Convenience. they pay tax in the Bahamas/Panama, but want a USA bailout (what!!?)
-- For those companies who have PAID NO TAX, why should the TAX PAYER bail them out? They are already profitless zombies and should be put to death!

Apologies for making this discussion financial :)

Yeah I get all of that and that is one aspect and I know the debate comes up about them not paying company tax but company tax is just one tax out of many and yes I agree it would be best if they did pay it but even some of our high profile sports stars that many worship in this country have a foreign registered abode to avoid paying tax here but I don’t hear much said about that.
Keep in mind the indirect tax they pay/ generate through the various sales taxes, fuel excise, GST and PAYG tax of their thousands of employees, luxury car tax etc etc etc
I agree 100% that it would be good if they also paid company tax as well but if they folded or left the country then we get non of those thing plus we would have a welfare burden as well for the unemployed.

I know the current system is far from perfect but it is still better than the alternative.

[Bushmiller]

Yes, Paul, they didn't get that bit of Systems Science and Engineering quite right....:U

I just do a control refresh [Control R] on my Windoze computer. It is slow to reload, but like you it is the only way that I've found to get back to their overview dashboard.

Otherwise its quite good.

Thanks Neil

I thought for a horrible moment my Luddite personality was becoming dominant over my IT personality :rolleyes: (The Obsessive personality from my Dissociative Identity Disorder is, for the moment, taking a back seat until he can get uninterrupted shed time).

:wink:


Timely observation, WP.

Psychologists/psychiatrists colloqiually term this reaction as "cabin fever". It may become increasingly significant. And not just among those diagnosed positive.

Imagine the cumulative stress on someone with a mortgage, credit cards, young family, the whole catastrophe, who is stood down from work, only centrelink benefits, is in lock down in a small flat hoping his family is safe, and does not know whether his employer will survive....

Graeme (and Evan)

I turned up a reference to "cabin fever" earlier today and was a bit puzzled. I thought I had accidentally surfed onto the owners builders sites again.

Possibly most of us on this section of the Forum are either retired or still working and as such only slightly impacted.... for the moment!

On a slightly different note we apparently have our first infection here in Millmerran (pop.1400). Somebody at the local service station allegedly, but we don't know who so this has to be in the unconfirmed basket for the moment. The pumps at service stations are a high risk piece of equipment handled potentially by so many.

By the way Evan, Your video link into Wuhan seems to have stopped working. I have not been able to access that for several days now. Perhaps my cynical self is coming to the fore, but is this so the "improvement" in Chinese data cannot be dis-proved do you think?

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

...
I turned up a reference to "cabin fever" earlier today and was a bit puzzled. I thought I had accidentally surfed onto the owners builders sites again. ...


My understanding is that the term arose to describe a condition prevalent at the end of a long, cold Canadian winter. Ian may be more authoritive than me.

[woodPixel]

By the way Mr Anonymous!, Your video link into Wuhan seems to have stopped working. I have not been able to access that for several days now. Perhaps my cynical self is coming to the fore, but is this so the "improvement" in Chinese data cannot be dis-proved do you think?

Well, there are theories and then there are conspiracy theories.

It couldbe that they all Just Went Offline. It couldbe that they accidentally recorded thousands of corpses being loaded up and trucked out... and it couldbe that they were showing the "back to business" of Wuhan looked more like a small town, on Sunday at 3am.....

I'm trying not to think about China right now. I'm aware that the English Government is (as the English put it) a touch cranky with them.

There are other things I'm aware of on the origins of this thing, that will come to light. When they do, well, won't that be.... interesting. China is problematic.

[GraemeCook]

After bagging youtube this visually simulated maths is, at a minimum, interesting

It takes 20 minutes but you should hopefully gain a better idea of the control being pursued by the Govt.


https://youtu.be/gxAaO2rsdIs


Thanks, Bob. That maths simulation seems to pretty well endorse the actions of the Australian government and society with one notable exception.

The simulation highlights the dangers from visiting a market or supermarket. The obvious solution would be a non-contact home delivery service. But Coles and Woolworths solution was to stop their home delivery services two weeks ago. In retrospect, gross irresponsibility, although I will admit that I did not appreciate the implications when it happened .

Just received some junk mail from Australia Post extolling the benefits of their collusion with Woolies to deliver the Woolworths Basics Box. Little more than a synical public relations exercise unless you want precisely what they ordain you to need. If something you need is not in that box then you still have to visit the supermarket which negates the benefit of the box.

[NeilS]

It takes 20 minutes but you should hopefully gain a better idea of the control being pursued by the Govt.



Thanks Bob, and yes very interesting for us non-epidemiologists.

[Tccp123]

Yeah I get all of that and that is one aspect and I know the debate comes up about them not paying company tax but company tax is just one tax out of many and yes I agree it would be best if they did pay it but even some of our high profile sports stars that many worship in this country have a foreign registered abode to avoid paying tax here but I don’t hear much said about that.
Keep in mind the indirect tax they pay/ generate through the various sales taxes, fuel excise, GST and PAYG tax of their thousands of employees, luxury car tax etc etc etc
I agree 100% that it would be good if they also paid company tax as well but if they folded or left the country then we get non of those thing plus we would have a welfare burden as well for the unemployed.

I know the current system is far from perfect but it is still better than the alternative.

Reminds me of this old story...

The Parable of 10 Men in a Bar (https://itooktheredpill.wordpress.com/2008/10/22/the-parable-of-10-men-in-a-bar/)
Suppose that every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100. If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes,it would go something like this:
The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.
The fifth would pay $1.
The sixth would pay $3.
The seventh would pay $7.
The eighth would pay $12.
The ninth would pay $18.
The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.
So, that’s what they decided to do.
The ten men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve. ‘Since you are all such good customers,’ he said, ‘I’m going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by $20.’ Drinks for the ten now cost just $80.
The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes so the first four men were unaffected. They would still drink for free.
But what about the other six men – the paying customers? How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his ‘fair share?’
They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody’s share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to drink his beer. So, the bar owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man’s bill by roughly the same amount, and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay.
And so:
The fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100%savings).
The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33%savings).
The seventh now paid $5 instead of $7 (28%savings).
The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% savings).
The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 (22% savings).
The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% savings).
Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to drink for free. But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings.
‘I only got a dollar out of the $20,’ declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man, ‘but he got $10!’
‘Yeah, that’s right,’ exclaimed the fifth man. ‘I only saved a dollar, too. It’s unfair that he got ten times more than I got!’
‘That’s true!!’ shouted the seventh man. ‘Why should he get $10 back when I got only two? The wealthy get all the breaks!’
‘Wait a minute,’ yelled the first four men in unison. ‘We didn’t get anything at all. The system exploits the poor!’
The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.
The next night the tenth man didn’t show up for drinks so the nine sat down and had beers without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important. They didn’t have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill!
And that,is how our tax system works!!
The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore. In fact, they might start drinking overseas where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.

[BobL]

Thanks, Bob. That maths simulation seems to pretty well endorse the actions of the Australian government and society with one notable exception.
Yep - I agree


The simulation highlights the dangers from visiting a market or supermarket.

Yep and All the more reason to SPELL out how groups go to the supermarket. The gubment is getting better at explaining this but the BIG one they're they're missing out on is "no shopping in groups" including families.
Mum/dad and two kids - no
Mum, Grandma and Grandpa - no
Dad/Uncle and 2 kids - no
Gaggle of teenagers - no
Mum/Grandma and 3 kids no
Mum and grandma - no
Mum and older and younger kid - No
Mum or Dad or Carer and two small kids - OK if there's no one at home that can look after the kids.

On the radio this morning for the first time I heard for the first time "don't go to the supermarket for an outing". On the weekend while waiting I saw a family group of 6 eating ice creams outside the main door of the shopping centre. Should have been pushed harder earlier.


The obvious solution would be a non-contact home delivery service. But Coles and Woolworths solution was to stop their home delivery services two weeks ago. In retrospect, gross irresponsibility, although I will admit that I did not appreciate the implications when it happened .

Yeah they were over run - we got our first grocery delivery in 10 days late last week. Luckily we had already registered and used the service a few weeks before the proverbial hit the fan. Also about half a dozen things on the list were not available via home delivery so SWMBO ended up going to the the supermarket anyway. SWMBO also did some shopping for friends of ours in self quarantine.

[NeilS]

470709 Infections relative to geography divided by population density

470710

I can now see where we need to locate our quarantine camp... just a bit north west of Woomera.

[BobL]

I can now see where we need to locate our quarantine camp... just a bit north west of Woomera.

Maybe at the corner of SA/NT/WA
Interestingly the WA border does a bit (100m) of a dog leg there - I've never noticed it before.
ON the WA border its called Ngaanyatjarra-Giles.
Theres even cupel fo buildings there!

[FenceFurniture]

Attached is the spreadsheet that I used for those screen captures yesterday. It's a bit more automated now, but to use the sort buttons you will need to have macros enabled. The data is still as at yesterday.

I'll update every 3 days.

[Tccp123]

Mum/dad and two kids - no
Mum, Grandma and Grandpa - no
Dad/Uncle and 2 kids - no
Gaggle of teenagers - no
Mum/Grandma and 3 kids no
Mum and grandma - no
Mum and older and younger kid - No
Mum or Dad or Carer and two small kids - OK if there's no one at home that can look after the kids.



Maybe it's because you spend most of your time at home or perhaps it's because I live across the road from a primary school and see what's going on but you're living in another universe if you think any of these can be achieved by government mandate. It ain't gonna happen...

[doug3030]

you're living in another universe if you think any of these can be achieved by government mandate. It ain't gonna happen...

Went to our local Coles this afternoon. Jools had a trolley, I went off and grabbed a couple of items and returned to her, we pulled over to the side of the aisle while I put the few items in the trolley. I saw a woman walking quickly down the aisle towards us and I said to Jools, "She isn't going to go through there surely." but she pushed in through the small gap, making forceful contact with me on the way through.

Well we kept our cool and spoke to her and she said something about us being in her way so F#c% us, she had to get through. Jools said something about social distancing being important. Then she spat in Jools's face.

Long story short, I followed her to her car, police were called, I gave them her rego number over the phone. Police were dispatched to talk to us. They had phoned this woman up before they even spoke to us and were told we were overreacting to a little accidental bump.

Police told us we were being unreasonable, no chargeable offence had occurred and they would take no action. She must have been the mother of one of them or something.

So even with a Government mandate unless they start charging people and telling the public that things like this will be taken seriously there is no hope of any sort of meaningful compliance.

[NeilS]

Attached is the spreadsheet that I used for those screen captures yesterday. It's a bit more automated now, but to use the sort buttons you will need to have macros enabled. The data is still as at yesterday.

I'll update every 3 days.

Many thanks, Brett.

Those are going to be very helpful in judging how we and some comparable countries are performing.

[BobL]

If anyone feels capable of contribution to tech/management/design/Fab of COV19 related equipment/logsistics/solutions/quick fixes etc you might want to check this our

Mobilise Aus COV19 Onboarding (https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSerqRy2Cv9ewk5TdpY-VKdnG-2fhH6pG7mg2K1yw2d4_Lnl1Q/viewform)

There's currently 155 members from all walks of life, lots of 3D printing people joined up, but also managers, IT people and I even noticed a wood worker in there.

My young bloke has joined a team pumping out 3D printed headbands for medical face shields. They have a big order from state hospitals.

[NeilS]

The time difference between North America, Europe and here partly explains why the data appears to lag at times. It depends in part on when the staff behind the different sites are awake and updating their data and when the official figures are released country by country around the world time zones.

I've found this site run by a 17yr old is the first to update. I wonder if he ever sleeps. Perhaps the 'Buy me a cup of coffee' button is keeping him wake with caffeine.

Coronavirus Dashboard (https://ncov2019.live/data)

The deputy chief medical officer has just agreed to release some time this week the modelling that they have been working on. That will be most interesting to see.

Here is the modelling from the The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in the USA.

COVID-19 (https://covid19.healthdata.org/)

A projected 15 days to peak with 80,000 deaths (0.02% of their population, more than twice that from regular flu in an average year) resulting in insufficient ICU beds (a shortfall of 27%). We can follow day by day to see how closely they fare against the projections on those graphs.

If anyone would like to wade into the background modelling and assumptions, see the attached.

[Tccp123]

If anyone would like to wade into the background modelling and assumptions, see the attached.

I doubt it very much...

[doug3030]

If anyone would like to wade into the background modelling and assumptions, see the attached.

I am pretty sure that there are a lot of suitably skilled people out there with better access to more comprehensive critical data in a more timely fashion than anyone on this forum could dream of getting. Even if you come up with some sort of a solution you will have a hard time convincing anyone to act on it, and even if you were successful in doing so it would already be too late.

But hey if it gives you something to amuse yourself with while in self-isolation waiting for the test kits to arrive, then go for it.

[FenceFurniture]

I doubt it very much...Wow, good to see such gratitude for someone taking the time to post that info. You could have just said nothing at all, but you had to make that point eh? Wasn't it you that said you don't respond to rude or disrespectful posts? You don't mind posting them in that way though, even to someone with whom you have no beef, yet. (certainly I expect you to be rude, disrespectful, or whatever else to me, along with your tag team buddy).

Leaving myself out of the equation, it would be good if you showed a bit of respect to some of the other posters in this thread. If you couldn't be bothered reading the info - no worries - don't, but you really don't have to keep up a running commentary on what you think might be a bit too much for you to stomach.

Seems to me that this thread is not being moderated.

[BobL]

I am pretty sure that there are a lot of suitably skilled people out there with better access to more comprehensive critical data in a more timely fashion than anyone on this forum could dream of getting.

The Dept of public health is throwing everything at this. They have an army of folks especially to handle the data and modelling/projections ranging from doctors, epidemiologists, 3D Data visualisers, mathematical modellers, database people, programmers and various other IT guys, supercomputers, and couple of partridges in pear trees. They should also have the full medical records of each patient, demographic data, ties and dates, severity, symptoms, underlaying causes, etc They'll be the ones plot out the death curves etc under various scenarios.

Folks are entitled to play with any available data as much as they like so don't let this put you off

[Tccp123]

Wow, good to see such gratitude for someone taking the time to post that info. You could have just said nothing at all, but you had to make that point eh? Wasn't it you that said you don't respond to rude or disrespectful posts? You don't mind posting them in that way though, even to someone with whom you have no beef, yet. (certainly I expect you to be rude, disrespectful, or whatever else to me, along with your tag team buddy).

Leaving myself out of the equation, it would be good if you showed a bit of respect to some of the other posters in this thread. If you couldn't be bothered reading the info - no worries - don't, but you really don't have to keep up a running commentary on what you think might be a bit too much for you to stomach.

Seems to me that this thread is not being moderated.

I know I said I don't respond to D/head comments but I just can't help myself here. Hahahahahahaah!

[doug3030]

Folks are entitled to play with any available data as much as they like so don't let this put you off

Totally agree - play with the available data to your heart's content, but don't kid yourself that doing so will make a single shred of difference. You have nothing like the complete dataset to play with.

[rwbuild]

I think its time everyone took a deep breath of fresh air and get back to their work benches and do something constructive, this thread is starting to become as toxic as the virus :D

[GraemeCook]

Went to our local Coles this afternoon. Jools had a trolley, I went off and grabbed a couple of items and returned to her, we pulled over to the side of the aisle while I put the few items in the trolley. I saw a woman walking quickly down the aisle towards us and I said to Jools, "She isn't going to go through there surely." but she pushed in through the small gap, making forceful contact with me on the way through.

Well we kept our cool and spoke to her and she said something about us being in her way so F#c% us, she had to get through. Jools said something about social distancing being important. Then she spat in Jools's face.

Long story short, I followed her to her car, police were called, I gave them her rego

.....


Coles security tapes, now mostly hi-res, should have all the evidence that you need.

The local Coles manager may be concerned that a serious assault occured on his premises, that the police did nothing, and there is a risk that the perpetrator may return and assault other customers or his staff.

[doug3030]

Coles security tapes, now mostly hi-res, should have all the evidence that you need.

The local Coles manager may be concerned that a serious assault occured on his premises, that the police did nothing, and there is a risk that the perpetrator may return and assault other customers or his staff.

Thanks - I have been considering going there tomorrow to see what they have. I have to wonder if it would be a total waste of time since the police were so unenthusistic about doing anything. I have a strong suspicion from my interaction with the two police there today that they know who she is and she is a protected species of some kind.

[ian]

Maybe at the corner of SA/NT/WA
Interestingly the WA border does a bit (100m) of a dog leg there - I've never noticed it before.
ON the WA border its called Ngaanyatjarra-Giles.
Theres even cupel fo buildings there!
you've been studying Google maps?



BTW, the location is officially known as "Surveyor General's Corner"

[ian]

Went to our local Coles this afternoon. Jools had a trolley, I went off and grabbed a couple of items and returned to her, we pulled over to the side of the aisle while I put the few items in the trolley. I saw a woman walking quickly down the aisle towards us and I said to Jools, "She isn't going to go through there surely." but she pushed in through the small gap, making forceful contact with me on the way through.

Well we kept our cool and spoke to her and she said something about us being in her way so F#c% us, she had to get through. Jools said something about social distancing being important. Then she spat in Jools's face.

Long story short, I followed her to her car, police were called, I gave them her rego number over the phone. Police were dispatched to talk to us. They had phoned this woman up before they even spoke to us and were told we were overreacting to a little accidental bump.

Police told us we were being unreasonable, no chargeable offence had occurred and they would take no action. She must have been the mother of one of them or something.

So even with a Government mandate unless they start charging people and telling the public that things like this will be taken seriously there is no hope of any sort of meaningful compliance.
How wide are the isles in your local Coles? In my local Coles, the isles are wide enough for two trolleys plus a bit. If they weren't that wide, there's no way of maintaining two-way traffic in the isle.
So were you and Jules really "pulled over to the side" of the isle -- which would leave more than enough room for the woman to pass you both -- or were you at least partially blocking the isle?

Not that spitting in anyone's face is acceptable, it clearly is assault. However, I doubt if Coles' store manager will let you get the evidence you need from their security tapes. At a minimum you would probably need the police with you when you ask.


I can see the Police thinking ...
the isles in Coles are wide enough for two trolleys to pass.
you and Jools had a trolley and the woman did not.
the woman could easily pass you but did not.
ergo "you and Jools" were "blocking" the isle with your trolley and bodies -- evidence the "woman" had to "make forceful contact" to get past you both.

Given the above, I can also see why the Police declined to take action -- apart from the "she spat on me", "no I didn't" arguement -- you were both equally at fault.
I think the police response is described as "discretion"

[ian]

The time difference between North America, Europe and here partly explains why the data appears to lag at times. It depends in part on when the staff behind the different sites are awake and updating their data and when the official figures are released country by country around the world time zones.

If anyone would like to wade into the background modelling and assumptions, see the attached.
<legend style="margin: padding: color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 12px; background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);">https://www.woodworkforums.com/images/misc/paperclip.png Attached Files</legend>

https://www.woodworkforums.com/images/attach/pdf.gif COVID-forecasting-03252020_4.pdf (https://www.woodworkforums.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=470713&d=1585560579) (1.19 MB, 3 views)

Thank you Neil and a special shout out to Bill and Melinda Gates and their foundation.

some comments on the attached file
the modelling might only be a week old, but it is now well out of date -- no one should be overly surprised about that this early in the pandemic.

the range of expected cases and number of deaths is very large -- 95% confidence that the estimated number of beds required ranges from a low of 7,977 (nothing to worry about) to a high of 251,059 (that's well beyond "holly f**king s**t"). BTW, that's a 31 times difference in expected bed demand.

ICU bed demand is similarly spread out -- 95% confidence that the peak ICU bed demand ranges from the easily managed 2,432 through to 57,955. BTW, that's around a 23 times difference in demand for ICU beds.

Peak ventilator use is not as spread out -- 95% confidence that the expected range is 9,767 to 39,674. That's only a factor of about 4.



Major caveat
No one at this stage has a handle on how many people have been exposed to the virus that causes the Covid-19 decease.
It will take post outbreak blood serum testing to get a handle on the approximate number of people exposed to the virus.

[doug3030]

Given the above, I can also see why the Police declined to take action

Ian, you were not there. You have no idea about the actual particulars of the incident and layout of the store and your speculation is well wide of the mark.

Don't bother asking me to elaborate because I am not going to waste the time and effort to explaining it to someone who has absolutely no ability to influence the outcome in any way. End of story. Find someone else to entertain you.

[Greg Ward]

Stir crazy old men
Isolation forum frustration relief

[Tonyz]

research ahh yes research, proves everything.
Some years ago one of the Adelaide Unis proved that supermarket/deli meat pies were the most nutritional thing you could possibly eat.....simply by crunching the information they had and using what they wanted to their advantage...some drongos actually believed it and stocked up on meat pies.

[doug3030]

research ahh yes research, proves everything.
Some years ago one of the Adelaide Unis proved that supermarket/deli meat pies were the most nutritional thing you could possibly eat.....simply by crunching the information they had and using what they wanted to their advantage...some drongos actually believed it and stocked up on meat pies.

April Fools Day prank gone wrong I'm guessing?

[Tccp123]

Some years ago one of the Adelaide Unis proved that supermarket/deli meat pies were the most nutritional thing you could possibly eat.....simply by crunching the information they had and using what they wanted to their advantage...some drongos actually believed it and stocked up on meat pies.

Not forgetting the study that was done into the effects of drinking 'diet' drinks. The research team used company cafeterias to gather their data where they noted that only overweight people were consuming diet drinks.

Ergo diet drinks make you fat!

[Chesand]

Only 8 more posts to reach 1000 in this thread. I am sure you can do it guys. :D :D

[doug3030]

Only 8 more posts to reach 1000 in this thread. I am sure you can do it guys. :D :D

If the moderators weren't paralyzed with laughter at the antics, and betting on what they think is going to happen next, they would be deleting posts from this thread faster than we could post and we would never reach 1000. :rolleyes:

[FenceFurniture]

From the Guardian this morning:
New study sheds light on coronavirus infection mechanism | World news | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/new-study-sheds-light-on-coronavirus-infection-mechanism)

An excerpt:
A detailed analysis of the virus’s structure shows that the club-like “spikes” that it uses to establish infections latch on to human cells about four times more strongly than those on the related Sars coronavirus, which killed hundreds of people in a 2002 epidemic.

The finding suggests that coronavirus particles that are inhaled through the nose or mouth have a high chance of attaching to cells in the upper respiratory tract, meaning that relatively few are needed for an infection to gain a foothold.


Presumably that is what makes this virus so much more contagious than others.

[BobL]

Totally agree - play with the available data to your heart's content, but don't kid yourself that doing so will make a single shred of difference. You have nothing like the complete dataset to play with.


Just like anything else said in this thread ?

[doug3030]

Just like anything else said in this thread ?

Well the Climate Change thread didn't stop climate change, the Bushfire thread didn't stop bushfires (but hang on, I think they were the same thread).

And the Covid-19 thread hasn't stopped the bitching.

[Glider]

research ahh yes research, proves everything.
Some years ago one of the Adelaide Unis proved that supermarket/deli meat pies were the most nutritional thing you could possibly eat.....simply by crunching the information they had and using what they wanted to their advantage...some drongos actually believed it and stocked up on meat pies.

Every now and then, people in academe write "papers" manipulating data or even creating it to "prove" a concept which is totally ridiculous. The topic and conclusions are so ridiculous that their colleagues see as a part joke and part skiting by the author that they are clever enough to produce it.

The point is that it's a joke!

mick

[BobL]

From the Guardian this morning:
New study sheds light on coronavirus infection mechanism | World news | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/new-study-sheds-light-on-coronavirus-infection-mechanism)

An excerpt:
A detailed analysis of the virus’s structure shows that the club-like “spikes” that it uses to establish infections latch on to human cells about four times more strongly than those on the related Sars coronavirus, which killed hundreds of people in a 2002 epidemic.

The finding suggests that coronavirus particles that are inhaled through the nose or mouth have a high chance of attaching to cells in the upper respiratory tract, meaning that relatively few are needed for an infection to gain a foothold.

Presumably that is what makes this virus so much more contagious than others.

Hummmmm. I'm not convinced this is as significant as they make out and could be a case of typical scientists blowing their own trumpet and elbowing for space in a very crowded field, after all they have just used a multi million $ machine and may need to justify its use. Or maybe the research is a more complicated than a journalist can cope with.

To give them their due the authors of the article also do say

The study only used fragments of the virus spike and host ACE-2 protein, and this is still only a theory,” he added. “The exact implications will need validation through further experimentation.”

In practical terms a lone virus is not a little ultra poisonous sticky ballbearing that rattles its way through a respiratory tract via a series of collisions and eventually impacts and sticks to the sides of the respiratory tract. Lone viruses are so small they behave much more like an air molecule than a bullet. Like most air molecules most lone viruses will not touch the sides of a respiratory tract - they will be breathed in and then back out again often many many times. Lone viruses can live on surfaces but die rapidly in free air, and a lone virus still has some chance of being taken out by a healthy immune system when it enters the human body.

We are really lucky this is the case because lone viruses go straight through virtually all face masks and if they were that sticky all medical staff attending COVID19 patients would be infected. We know the infection and death rates for these people are high but fortunately most survive otherwise we'd be in deep doodoo.

By far the most likely source of infection is determined by the viral load on and the size and type of the substrate the viral load is riding on. Bigger water droplets or skin and other dust particles are much more likely to rattle their way into the respiratory system and strike and stick to the sides of the respiratory system. So in practice it's the stickiness of the substrate that matters much more in the first instance than the stickiness of the virus.
If stickiness of the virus was significant it could also mean it would be harder for the virus to get out - this might even mean it could cancel the stickiness in factor.

[NeilS]

...some comments on the attached file



Thanks for those observations, Ian.

Yes, the confidence levels are very wide, but to be expected when some variables are unknown and where the currently available known data set is small or of doubtful application, eg some data is already known for Italy and Spain on the up curve but that data may not be as applicable to the populations demographics of the USA or for that matter in Australia.

As we know, no model accurately predicts the outcomes they attempt to model, but I will be interesting to see how closely this one does. Won't have to wait long to do that with only 15 days to the predicted peak.

And, yes, the model will be perfect for Covid-19 when adjusted in hindsight... :U

No doubt this pandemic will be the most closely studied in history, which will hopefully make us better prepared for future pandemics but then the next novel virus will come along with its unique characteristics and we will be guessing what impact that will have on us and asking the modellers again to give us their best estimates and projections (whatever the confidence level). Since the decline of oracles and soothsayers, modellers and their associates seem to be the best we have for that.

[RossM]

Reminds me of this old story...

The Parable of 10 Men in a Bar (https://itooktheredpill.wordpress.com/2008/10/22/the-parable-of-10-men-in-a-bar/)

Suppose that every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100. If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes,it would go something like this:
The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.
The fifth would pay $1.
The sixth would pay $3.
The seventh would pay $7.
The eighth would pay $12.
The ninth would pay $18.
The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.
So, that’s what they decided to do.
The ten men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve. ‘Since you are all such good customers,’ he said, ‘I’m going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by $20.’ Drinks for the ten now cost just $80.
The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes so the first four men were unaffected. They would still drink for free.
But what about the other six men – the paying customers? How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his ‘fair share?’
They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody’s share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to drink his beer. So, the bar owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man’s bill by roughly the same amount, and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay.
And so:
The fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100%savings).
The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33%savings).
The seventh now paid $5 instead of $7 (28%savings).
The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% savings).
The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 (22% savings).
The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% savings).
Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to drink for free. But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings.
‘I only got a dollar out of the $20,’ declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man, ‘but he got $10!’
‘Yeah, that’s right,’ exclaimed the fifth man. ‘I only saved a dollar, too. It’s unfair that he got ten times more than I got!’
‘That’s true!!’ shouted the seventh man. ‘Why should he get $10 back when I got only two? The wealthy get all the breaks!’
‘Wait a minute,’ yelled the first four men in unison. ‘We didn’t get anything at all. The system exploits the poor!’
The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.
The next night the tenth man didn’t show up for drinks so the nine sat down and had beers without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important. They didn’t have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill!
And that,is how our tax system works!!
The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore. In fact, they might start drinking overseas where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.



Stupid parable - it has a fatal flaw.

The "10th man" will never pay his 60%. In fact he will just use his lawyers, tax accountants, trusts, offshore companies and banks domiciled in Ireland, Luxembourg, Hong Kong, the Caribbean etc etc to ensure that he looks just like the first 4 or 5 blokes in the list. To see the extent of this just look at Mossack Fonseca - one small law firm in one minor tax haven. over 200,000 companies implicated and tens of thousands of people from heads of state to low profile individuals, all avoiding contributing to the societies where this wealth is stripped.

You want to keep believing in fairy-tales - go on - but trickle down economics is an abject failure - proven many times over.

[Tccp123]

Stupid parable - it has a fatal flaw.

The "10th man" will never pay his 60%. In fact he will just use his lawyers, tax accountants, trusts, offshore companies and banks domiciled in Ireland, Luxembourg, Hong Kong, the Caribbean etc etc to ensure that he looks just like the first 4 or 5 blokes in the list. To see the extent of this just look at Mossack Fonseca - one small law firm in one minor tax haven. over 200,000 companies implicated and tens of thousands of people from heads of state to low profile individuals, all avoiding contributing to the societies where this wealth is stripped.

You want to keep believing in fairy-tales - go on - but trickle down economics is an abject failure - proven many times over.

It must be a curse to be poor :(