Katoomba Monthly Temp average set to be SMASHED!!! AGAIN!!!

[FenceFurniture]

But this really is a smash! :D :D

Last year was the hottest month on record up here (and yes I know we are nowhere near as hot as other places - somewhat cooler in fact). The Jan 2018 mean temp (http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=122&p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_startYear=&p_c=&p_stn_num=063039) for the month was 27.2°.

Unfortunately there are no Katoomba records for this January (dunno why) so I have to work with Mt Boyce, which, although only ~10-11km away, can have quite different weather to here, such is life in the mountains.

So working off last year for Mt Boyce, the mean for the month was 27.4, also a record. This month, and only up until yesterday, the mean for Mt Boyce is ....wait for it.....waaaait....
28.5°.

Furthermore, the next seven days are all forecast to be over 30°, and putting those forecast temps into my data, the mean for the month will be
29.3°. RECORD SMASHED!

In other words 2.1° hotter than the record set last January.

Now that, ladies & gents, really is a record smashed to smithareens! Even if a single day's temp was broken by 2° it would be quite something, but for a 31 day average to be broken by 2°, that's crazy.

Kuffy, I deleted the bold, but increased the size, so I'm hoping your nerves are ok with that. :D

[Kuffy]

Yep, that's for sure smashed this time. I think global warming must be fast becoming odds on favourite of being true now.

[woodPixel]

My doom enthusiasm is twitching :)

[shanesmith80]

Its probably all those extra low flying aircraft to get you mountain dwellers used to all the extra traffic from Western Sydney Airport.:sssh:

[Chris Parks]

Brett must be feeling bored? Tell them about the hailstorm and now that was smashing.

[RossM]

Yebbut, yebbut, yebbut, yebbut - climate change??? Faaake newwws!!!! Just ask Donald & Tony.

[crowie]

Its probably all those extra low flying aircraft to get you mountain dwellers used to all the extra traffic from Western Sydney Airport.:sssh:

NO! It's all the hot air generated from the local pollies about it!

Along with other "nothing to do with local council" issues they are wasting money upon!!

[Picko]

You poor bu##$r Brett. I hope it cools down for you soon.
This is what the last 2 weeks looked like here.
Blood smileys still don't work.

DATE...….. MIN... MAX


<tbody>
12

Sa

19.2

37.9

0.2



E

31

15:38

24.5

67


ENE

13

1015.8

35.9

23


NW

11

1013.3



13

Su

24.4

38.1

0.2



ENE

52

21:48

28.5

42


E

26

1014.8

37.2

28

1

ENE

30

1011.5



14

Mo

22.8

42.0




E

48

23:03

27.0

51


ENE

20

1014.1

40.2

16


WNW

28

1009.2



15

Tu

25.9

43.9




WSW

70

20:15

31.7

30


NE

9

1010.9

42.2

10


W

33

1007.4



16

We

24.0

44.3




NNW

26

23:27

32.0

28


ENE

13

1009.7

43.4

7


SSW

4

1006.4



17

Th

29.8

45.2




NW

63

13:24

33.0

28


ENE

19

1008.6

43.9

10


NW

22

1004.0



18

Fr

28.5

43.6




W

57

14:37

32.9

29


ENE

35

1007.5

41.7

13

1

NW

35

1003.7



19

Sa

24.6

37.6




WSW

39

13:37

29.0

44


WSW

11

1014.9

36.3

9


WNW

19

1014.1



20

Su

18.4

38.4




WNW

35

16:47

25.0

54


ENE

20

1017.5

36.2

24


WSW

9

1013.9



21

Mo

23.1

39.2




ENE

46

00:56

26.8

53


ENE

22

1016.2

37.2

21

2

ENE

11

1011.5



22

Tu

25.7

40.7




NNW

48

13:59

30.6

43


NE

15

1013.4

39.7

19


NNW

28

1008.8



23

We

23.4

41.1

0.2



ENE

57

19:16

30.4

44


NE

13

1010.6

39.0

20


SW

15

1007.4



24

Th

22.0

39.2




ESE

35

01:14

26.6

50


ENE

20

1014.0

37.7

25


NE

13

1010.3



25

Fr

25.7

43.7




NW

37

11:20

29.3

48


ENE

19

1011.8

41.6

19


N

20

1006.6



26

Sa

28.9





</tbody>

[FenceFurniture]

Gawd, that's out there Picko. Where is that?

I had a look at Marble Bar yesterday. Not a day under 41 this month, and an average of 44.6!

I'm not actually complaining about the temps here, especially as I know almost everywhere else is much worse. I'm just gobsmacked that the record mean will be 2° higher than the previous record (last January). That's a seriously big increase for a month's average.

[Picko]

Gawd, that's out there Picko. Where is that?

Wagga


I had a look at Marble Bar yesterday. Not a day under 41 this month, and an average of 44.6!

Yeah, glad I'm not there.


I'm not actually complaining about the temps here, especially as I know almost everywhere else is much worse. I'm just gobsmacked that the record mean will be 2° higher than the previous record (last January). That's a seriously big increase for a month's average.

Your right, and it's widespread.

[BobL]

Gawd, that's out there Picko. Where is that?

I had a look at Marble Bar yesterday. Not a day under 41 this month, and an average of 44.6! .

My 93 year old MIL grew up in Marble Bar. Actually it was at a place called Bamboo Creek 70km out of MB where they lived in a 2 room corrugated iron clad shed amongst gold mine tailings. She loves the heat and the older she gets the higher the temperature she kept her house. Now she is in an aged care facility and has the AC in her room set 24/7 on MAX which has been doctored to be 29ºC but she still wears track suit plus a cardigan and UGG boots all year round and often says she is cold. She is largely confined to bed or a chair next to the bed. When we visit I'm sweating in about 3 minutes, mercifully visits are short and I get the impression MIL like a short visit as well.

[FenceFurniture]

My doom enthusiasm is twitching :)Wot, that's new?

And please don't indulge clear_out with his request for pics. That would be somewhat worse for the national psyche than a rapid escalation in Climate Change.

[FenceFurniture]

Its probably all those extra low flying aircraft to get you mountain dwellers used to all the extra traffic from Western Sydney Airport.:sssh:Bah! Even at Penrith (15km) with a Northbound take off it won't be too bad. When I lived in Menai (15km from Mascot) you could hardly hear them. We're 41km away from Luddenham here, and although 1000m closer in altitude to the planes, I'm really not concerned. There's PLENTY of choppers go right over my place at 500' (on the way to the hospital).




Brett must be feeling bored? Tell them about the hailstorm and now that was smashing.Yes well that hail storm on Wednesday really was a smash-hit alright. I had the two broken windows and gawd knows how many dings in the car (even the doors....on both sides....). When the 3cm stones started coming in the house (through the very recently opened windows to let the heat out) I thought I probably should move the car to under the yuge London Plane tree, but I feared for my safety in getting the 5 metres to the car. The hail went for 40 minutes! (but it progressively got smaller).

So yesterday I cleaned up the courtyard that was a mess of leaves and branches bashed out of the Japanese Maples. Today the heat has driven a whole bunch more down - I presume they were loosened but not knocked out of the trees on Wednesday, and then dried and shrivelled and fell today.

Makes me wonder how this 4 weeks of crazy heat has affected the Eucalypts. Presumably there are a lot more leaves in swimming pools this season.

[Chris Parks]

We had a casualty during the high winds the other day, a big branch came down and demolished Mrs P's clothes line. We normally have a cover over the pool but the weather has been so hot if we left it on the water will get way too hot so during the high winds it copped all sorts of stuff in it. The Kookaburras don't mind though, they do touch and goes in the water.

[woodPixel]

Makes me wonder how this 4 weeks of crazy heat has affected the Eucalypts. Presumably there are a lot more leaves in swimming pools this season

The trees here are getting utterly smashed. They are shedding bark like crazy and the limbs are falling. Every small wind (or none) and they are falling to bits.

Just next door, two huge branches feel off different trees and smashed the fence... On the same afternoon! Across the road, an old tree has shed three huge branches.

On a drive to Belconnen today, looking at the trees on the sides of the road going around Black Mountain (a local hill of note) there were an amazing number of fallen stricken gums... We all commented on it.

The heat here has been high. No one is enjoying this....

FF, on doom enthusiasm, my brother asked me two weeks ago, "what if you're right?".... Well, I bloody hope I'm wrong.

Very wrong....

[FenceFurniture]

Just in:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/01/january-named-as-australias-hottest-month-on-record

[FenceFurniture]

Climate change is such BS........or not:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-13/heatwave-queensland-roma-brisbane-suffer-undending-run-scorchers/10807470

Just a little quote from that:
Further south, Roma has recorded 82 consecutive days with maximum temperatures topping 30 degrees Celsius, breaking last year's 58-day record. (ED: and that record was only "broken" not SMASHED!!! :D)
Wednesday also marked Brisbane's 35th straight day of 30C or more, with a top of 34.3C.

One day, when it's too late to do anything about it (and some scientists are saying that is RIGHT NOW), the CC deniers will have to admit they were wrong all along. We should leave it to them to explain to our children and grandchildren why we didn't do enough to preserve the world we left them with to try and clean up, if at all possible. :~

[crowie]

And North America has had a huge snow dump.
Global warming??

Central Queensland down to Victoria is still in drought.

If if you want funding for something, creat some media coverage.

[FenceFurniture]

And it goes on...
North Qld rainfall event described by BOM as "Exceptional" by BOM and worthy of a special Climate statement. (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-15/queensland-floods-special-climate-statement/10816184)

Still reckon it's BS, and there is NO climate event possible that will change my mind!!!:no: EVER!

[FenceFurniture]

So here we are, 11 months later, and looking quite likely to SMASH another record for the month, even though it's only days old.

Satdy the 4th January 2020 was 39.8° up here, which is a new January record by 3.4°. I'd say that is a genuine SMASHED record.

Penrith - just 45 minutes east of here - was another 9° on top of that, at 48.9°, making it the hottest place on Earth for the day. For the perspective of old-timers and 'Mericans, that is exactly 120.0°F.......the "F" stands for Farenheit usually, but on Satdy it stood for f*kked something else.

So we are looking at:


a third straight year of record temps in the Blue Mountains (and I know almost everywhere else is doing it tougher, but I'm a pussy :B)
17 of the 18 hottest years for the world (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record#Warmest_years) have occurred since 2000 (including three consecutive record breaking years 2014-15-16)
(and remember that at that time there had only been 18 years since 2000.....so all but one)
the NSW bushfire season starting in the last month of Winter in 2019
the small matter of what appears to be an entire southern half of the country on fire - with no hope of them going out for some months, catastrophic loss of wildlife, farm animals, grazing acres, species loss, etc etc etc etc not to mention profound tourism impacts for (how many) years
and a leader known as Smoko, Smirko or ProMo who doesn't when to be quiet, when to talk, when to leave the country, and when to leave people's hands alone (and I don't really see that as a political comment - it's a factual observation that is impossible to disagree with)


Anyone still need convincing about greenhouse gases causing Climate Change?

[Chris Parks]

Anyone still need convincing about greenhouse gases causing Climate Change?

Most of the politicians who won the last election and guess who voted them in...most of the dumb Australian electorate. It will be interesting to see how they spin this after it is all over, I am sure they are working out the answers now.

[FenceFurniture]

If there was an election in the next 3-6 months I think the outcome would be somewhat different! And don't forget that the Stephen Bradbury (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfQMJtilOGg) of Australian politics didn't win the election - the other dills lost it very badly. It was handed to them on a Green, Brown and charCoal platter. (if you haven't seen that Bradbury clip in a while have a look at the last 15-20 seconds :D).

[woodPixel]

43° here.

Hottest day ever.

Climate change is a myth.

[rwbuild]

The fires are a result of drought, which if you care to dig into genuine past records and not the dumbed up/down ones that are manipulated by the CC protagonists, you will find there are cycles of drought, floods, etc.

The drought of the 20's & 30's together with economic woes, then years of above average rainfall of the 50's & 60's, then another drought and so on.

There is an online link to a log book from the 1800's of a sailing ship on its way to New Zealand and the captain has recorded how ash and embers from SE Australia fell on the ship and set the sails and rigging on fire.

There are bore core logs/samples taken from all over Australia that records when there were droughts and floods over hundreds and thousands of years but they are conveniently ignored/forgotten.

The single greatest factor in these current fires is the build up of fuel on the ground which is the direct result of the tree huggers having made it almost impossible to do low intensity burns which the aboriginals practiced for thousands of yrs in alternate seasons together with a forest worth of red tape, paper wielding bureaucratic public servants justify there existence at all levels of government and the closure of fire trails or minimal maintenance of them. I have travelled the fire trail that went from the Putty Rd, up over Gospers Mnt and to Newnes/Rylston, it used to be the training ground for the army and remote terrain air strip training for the RAAF, but the tree huggers have made sure its almost obliterated and now we are waiting to hear if we have lost the one natural habitat of the Wollemi Pines.
There are many documented cases of farmers having lost crops, livestock, sheds, homes because they are no longer allowed to clear fire breaks. They have stopped the farmers from grazing cattle in the high country of the Snowy which has led to an excessive fuel build up.

Look at how we use water today, cutting metal and stone, manufacturing from paints to chemicals to bottled water, there is documented facts of aquifers on the central coast, Victoria, Queensland near the Glass House Mt being depleted by the water bottle companies because we are too lazy to take our own perfectly good water in a bottle from our own taps. Go figure.

Climate change, yes, we do have climate change, look at the ice ages, they came, went and came again, what is a real problem is how we use our resources and the nonsensical crops grown in the wrong environment, the classic is the Australian cotton farms in the predominately dry areas using vast quantities of water, building houses on ever decreasing lot sizes on some of the most productive agricultural land in the world and expecting agriculture to be viable in the predominantly dry areas.

I spent 30 yrs as a RFS captain dealing with this crap, my farther was a dairy farmer, yes I made my career in the building industry but that doesn't make me blind to the follies of it either.

Renewable energy is the latest thing, fantastic, it will reduce a lot of emissions of all sorts and lead to other issues but that is human progress, from hunters and gathers to agricultural, then onto mechanisation (the industrial revolution) then to the electronic age, from taking 7 months to sail from England to Australia no 17hrs by plane, from looking at the moon from earth to looking at earth from the moon, each age has had it's pros and cons, each one predominately better than the previous and so humanity keeps evolving, but lets use or do those principles that have stood the test of time and incorporate them into future development.

[FenceFurniture]

..look at the ice ages, they came, went and came again,Doubtful that there'll be another one though, unless we manage to halt the extreme speed with which we are heating things up. That's the problem - the speed.



97% of Climate scientists agree that the Earth's climate is warming (https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/)rapidly (https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/).

How can we, as amateurs (at best) not believe a vast consensus of experts who have trained for years in this stuff?
We know that methane, CO2 etc are greenhouse gases (promoting global warming) - it was a proven fact (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Tyndall) in the mid 19th century. Does anyone dispute that they are greenhouse gases?
It is an incontrovertible fact that we have pumped out vast amounts of these gases since industrialisation and broadacre grazing.
We are seeing average temps rising at unprecedented rates within the lifespan of a single human.

According to the NOAA 2018 Global Climate Summary, the combined land and ocean temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.07°C (0.13°F) per decade since 1880; however, the average rate of increase since 1981 (0.17°C / 0.31°F) is more than twice as great. Sep 19, 2019


What's missing for the argument to be unconvincing?
What will it actually take for man-made CC deniers to be convinced? Records broken every year by staggering numbers until we can't live in certain places any longer by around 10 years from now? Would that do it?

If that would not be enough, then what would it take? Given the current situation, the overwhelming evidence and agreement amongst the scientists, I think it is not an unfair question to ask of deniers: name the threshold where the denial arguments are found and accepted to be fallacious (by the deniers).

[rwbuild]

The exact same argument can be said of the CC brigade, time will judge who is right, in the mean time, use the FACTS of science, not the cherry picked ones, as I said there has been both warming and cooling over eons of time but there is also the scenario that there is a finite time for earth regardless of what we do, hence, humanity and its ever searching questioning character will always push boundaries either physical or theoretical.
Its a bit like the millionaire wanting to employ a tax consultant so he asked each applicant what 2+2 equals, the one who said what result do you want got the job.
The point Im making is there are long established practices that are environmentally sound , proven and beneficial that should be continued but at the same time lets be more circumspect in how we use our resources which is far more important.

[woodPixel]

FenceFurniture and RWbuild are both absolutely right.

There is ZERO doubt that, we as humans, are causing vast changes to our environment.

I dont know the future, but a blind man can see that we are destroying our planet on a vast scale.

Yesterday we watched a David Attenborough film on Borneo. Shot 40 years ago (?)... ALL of the VAST forests, vast plant life, vast animal life is now 100% mono-crop Palm Oil tress. The photo, from space, did not need a Greenie to interpret it. If, as a person, it didn't slap you hard in the face then one must plainly stupid. The scale of the destruction is mind-blowing.

Same with our country. RWbuild is bang on... farmland turned into 300sqm suburban blocks... Soft drink companies and cotton farmers pumping ancient aquifers to satisfy this years profits.

We must change. We must.

We absolutely MUST.

[Glider]

There is ZERO doubt that, we as humans, are causing vast changes to our environment.

I dont know the future, but a blind man can see that we are destroying our planet on a vast scale.

We must change. We must.

We absolutely MUST.

I couldn't agree more, but sadly it's unlikely to happen. It's ridiculous to hear people saying "I don't believe in CC" as if it was an opinion rather than a scientific fact. No one denied the Ozone problem in the late '60s when Rowland and Molina published their paper which explained the phenomenon with no stronger experimental basis than a computer model. It led to the world banning fluorocarbons on far less evidence than CC.

In 1896 a Nobel prize winning Swedish scientist called Svante Arrhenius explained the effect of greenhouse gases almost as an unexpected consequence. His formulas are still in use today because they can be experimentally proven. I learned about it in first year high school science in 1959 and then at Uni when I studied science. Most solar energy is reflected from the Earth's surface. Certain molecules (greenhouse gases) absorb this energy and trap it in the atmosphere warming it. Give me a spectrophotometer and a decent lab and I'll prove it to you. Every scientist who has studied physical chemistry knows this as an undeniable fact. That is, except for a very few in the pay of a small group of plucky oil men brave enough to deny the science. Lots of their nonsense makes sense to people who don't want to acknowledge the facts, like CO2 being only 412 parts per million. Try eating a microgram of plutonium and see how you travel. It matters.

Data points in climate are very noisy and climate has certainly fluctuated over millennia but the trends and correlations are crystal clear as are the reasons. Ice ages are caused by Milankovitch cycles where the Earth tilts in orbit regularly but infrequently. Not the case in CC.

Sadly it's all about change and money and we'll probably have to hit the wall before anything is done globally.

mick :(

[crowie]

NO GLOBAL WARMING IN NEW ZEALAND
It damn cold and wet, wet, wet.

Woodworking mates in the USA have feet of snow as early as

[RossM]

NO GLOBAL WARMING IN NEW ZEALAND
It damn cold and wet, wet, wet.

Woodworking mates in the USA have feet of snow as early as

I really hope this is a tongue in cheek comment.

Global warming results in climate change meaning existing patterns will be disrupted. It does not equate to hot weather everywhere. Anecdotal reports are used by the likes of Trump to try & discredit decades of science, using the trite and fallacious conceit of a confusing single data point with a statistical trend. This argument also (and perhaps deliberately for those with vested interests) confuses climate and weather, which are related but distinct. Weather is the state of the atmosphere at any given time and place. Climate is the long-term average of the weather. Climate is defined not only by average temperature and precipitation but also by the type, frequency, duration, and intensity of weather events. Climate trends are showing changes to historic weatehr patterns and towards more frequent extreme events.

The insurance industry and their actuaries has been taking note of this for at least three decades and has been factoring it into their pricing, risk management and business models. (Pity our genius politicians have not been doing the same. and I include the idiot Greens who scuppered a carbon tax in Oz for their own nefarious ends.)

Scientific American has an excellent article here:
Why Global Warming Can Mean Harsher Winter Weather - Scientific American (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earthtalks-global-warming-harsher-winter/)

[cava]

When I was growing up in Sydney in the 60’s, it was so hot that the newspapers used to have competitions for readers to report the highest temperature. The daily prizes was a lottery ticket.

Pavements were buckling, and this happened 2-3 times on front of our own house on successive years. We lived in Haberfield.

i remember recording 113F and ringing the newspaper to report it. Didn’t get the prize as it was not the highest temperature for the day.

A review of the BOM records today, does not have these high temperatures listed. They appear to have been deleted.

[Bushmiller]

One of my hobby horses is how people with agendas cherry pick facts or distort facts or simply lie. When I see so-called facts about climate change (previously referred to as global warming) I try to look a little further to see if there is a hidden agenda. Bear in mind that this agenda can be as little as "I don't want to stop driving my gas guzzling V8." I have to say at this point that it looks highly unlikely I will now ever own a V8 engined car run on petrol and as such a there will be a significant void in my development: I may as a result never have the credentials to join a men's shed when I get old!

But I digress as I wished to point out one or two points to be aware of when discussing temperatures, the possibility of Climate Change and any other associated business:

1. We are not talking about the last twenty years. The period of concern is the last two hundred years: In fact since the start of the industrial revolution, which to my mind commenced in the early 19th century. Consequently any body who starts off a discussion by saying they experienced high temperatures when they were a child has missed the point entirely. When they were a child, it was already happening: Just not as severely as we may be experiencing now. Only people in excess of two hundred years old can use the argument of it has happened before.

2. Around 97% of scientists concur that climate change is a reality. Why do the denialists chose to believe the 3% that fly in the face of their scientific comrades? Who is sponsoring that 3%.

3. Man is possibly exacerbating climate change rather than being the sole contributor. There are many natural events, such as volcanic eruptions, that potentially contribute to warming. Consequently we could really do without man's contribution.

4. Frequently it has been pointed out that the earth has had higher levels of CO2 in the atmosphere before, but most of the people that put this argument forward either don't know or deliberately neglect to mention that man was not going to put his foot on the planet for several more millions of years. Mankind has never had to contend with these CO2 levels.

5. It took an awful long time (>200,000 years) for modern man to reach a population of one billion. It only took another two hundred years to reach the current 7.7 billion. It has increased exponentially since 1800 (see the graph below).There is a big question as to whether the planet can sustain a population that is projected to reach 11 billion by the end of the twenty first century. Actually that may be by 2050: I am not quite sure. Please verify this as I may have an agenda that even I don't acknowledge.

6. Trees do indeed absorb and thrive on CO2, but "HELLO" vast, vast tracts of former bushland and forest have been felled. The USA, South America, Australia and Indonesia all once had vast forests and now they don't and so they are no longer the carbon store on which we once heavily depended. It is cycle from which we cannot for the moment extract ourselves. Grass is a carbon store, but certainly here in Australia we are in drought and we can't grow anything. I heard recently that 95% of the forests in Australia have been removed since Capt. Cook arrived.

7. Lastly, and this a slight diversion from climate change, man seems hell bent on destroying his own planet: Doing quite unmentionable things in his own nest. I heard last night that microscopic size plastic particles are showing up in Krill.I know of somebody who has an eight years contract to investigate this abomination.


Even if man has not contributed to climate change, climate is certainly changing, even in Katoomba as Brett has testified. If Katoomba is hot, everywhere else is like an oven. Can we withstand this change? Clearly not at the moment. The ground is barren where we ordinarily grow crops and burnt out when we have not yet had time to chop down the trees.

I find it disgraceful that our politicians are not big enough (I include all sides of politics here) to acknowledge that a disaster is looming, that they need to do something about it in both the short term and the long term and that they need to have a plan (arguably a dynamic plan to allow for changing information) in place to cope with as many foreseeable contingencies as possible.

Thank you Brett for pointing out that climate change has apparently reached The Blue Mountains and let's hope that one or two other people step up with their statistics. Here in Millmerran we have had no record high temps. We had our first 40 deg day only two days ago, but we have had temps between 35 degs and 39degs almost relentlessly since December and much of November too. Almost no rain to speak of and certainly no significant rain for a long time.

Regards
Paul

466647

[FenceFurniture]

Geez, so much to respond to overnight - good to see I can still prod everyone awake :D




I really hope this is a tongue in cheek comment.I believe you'll find it was not t-i-c.



NO GLOBAL WARMING IN NEW ZEALAND
It damn cold and wet, wet, wet. Woodworking mates in the USA have feet of snow as early asYes, and I have had a jacket on all day yesterday and so far this morning after a record hot day 2 days ago. What about the melting glaciers in the Antarctic, Greenland et al? What about the 3 newly discovered islands in the Arctic Ocean?

CC is not about spikes - it's about long term trends - constantly breaking records is a long term trend.
17 of the hottest 18 years on record have been within 2000 to 2017 - that's a trend, and a seriously disturbing one.



When I was growing up in Sydney in the 60’s, it was so hot that the newspapers used to have competitions for readers to report the highest temperature. The daily prizes was a lottery ticket. Pavements were buckling, and this happened 2-3 times on front of our own house on successive years. We lived in Haberfield. i remember recording 113F and ringing the newspaper to report it. Didn’t get the prize as it was not the highest temperature for the day. A review of the BOM records today, does not have these high temperatures listed. They appear to have been deleted.George, unfortunately that is only anecdotal evidence, and dependent upon what type of thermometer (accuracy), was it calibrated correctly, was the temp taken correctly etc. I remember buckling roads too - everyone does - but have they changed the mixture/techniques for roadbuilding to counteract this phenomenon? You'd have to think that they should have. That evidence most certainly does not prove that CC does not exist (which I think is what you are hinting at).

The thing about recording temperatures is that Stevenson Screens (https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=stevenson+screen+temperature) have only been in use since the late 1800s and didn't become a standard until quite some time after that. This means that old temperature records are not reliable - very unfortunately.



... time will judge who is right,But Ray, what if it is ultimately proven that the deniers were wrong all along, and that it is then TOO LATE to do enough about it to stop the catastrophic, irreversible damage?
What are the deniers going to do or say then? "SORRY"?
That just won't cut it.

You see we have to take into account the lag in accumulating data before we can be certain, and there is now quite a cluster of scientists who are saying two things:
1. Temp increase forecast may be seriously understated
2. IT IS ALREADY TOO LATE! You can be quite sure that they hope they are wrong about this.



as I said there has been both warming and cooling over eons of timeBut nobody disputes that. Nobody at all.

but there is also the scenario that there is a finite time for earth regardless of what we do, hence, humanity and its ever searching questioning character will always push boundaries either physical or theoretical.Do you mean because of The Rapture or because of scientific reasons. In either case, I see no reason to do our very best to accelerate towards the cliff edge....rather the opposite.

Furthermore, if you mean for scientific reasons, then that "finite" period of time is well beyond the next hundred years or so, and yet as things are progressing vast amounts of the planet will be uninhabitable within 100 years. That is just a few seconds in the geological time scale, and yet we have managed to do it.

[RossM]

This is a really good example of how those with an agenda seek to distort the science by deliberately misrepresenting it and quoting studies to try and further their position. (and it's also an interesting read) see the comment by Mike Wallace and the reply.

What Is the Sun's Role in Climate Change? – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet (https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2910/what-is-the-suns-role-in-climate-change/)

[FenceFurniture]

Lots of their nonsense makes sense to people who don't want to acknowledge the facts, like CO2 being only 412 parts per million. Try eating a microgram of plutonium and see how you travel. It matters.I'm glad you brought that up Mick. If I was to tackle Alan Jones about this he would cut me off because I would be about to dispel his ridiculous bloody argument as mathematically fallacious and illogical, and we can't have that can we?

The point is as follows:
Yes, CO2 is a miserable little % of the atmosphere - we know - we can measure it.
We know as an irrefutable fact that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. We've known it for 160 years.
We also know how much CO2 we are putting out (call it quantity "x").
Jones ridiculously says that because the % of CO2 is so small, whatever we do just doesn't matter.
I can only say that he must be arithmetically challenged, because the SMALLER the % of existing CO2 is, the worse the effect of putting that finite amount into it is.

For those who cannot grasp what I am saying there:
If I have a litre of water and I add 10mls of dye to it, it will be a 1.0% solution, of a certain colour density. If I add that same 10mls of dye (representing the CO2 that we add) to a smaller amount of water, then the water will look darker, won't it? So adding that finite amount "x" of CO2 to an even smaller amount in the atmosphere only makes the increase greater, therefore putting things more out of balance than if the 0.04% was a larger number.

Therefore, to dismiss our additions of CO2 as inconsequential, because the original amount is so small at 0.04%, is completely and utterly illogical because the argument defeats itself! It's a bloody idiotic argument.

Furthermore, according to Yale University CO2 was just 0.03% in the mid-20thC. That means we have increased it by a staggering 33% in about half a century. That does NOT fit into the timescale of geology. Even an increase of 5% in that time would be radical - 33% is outrageous.

[RossM]

When I was growing up in Sydney in the 60’s, it was so hot that the newspapers used to have competitions for readers to report the highest temperature. The daily prizes was a lottery ticket.

Pavements were buckling, and this happened 2-3 times on front of our own house on successive years. We lived in Haberfield.

i remember recording 113F and ringing the newspaper to report it. Didn’t get the prize as it was not the highest temperature for the day.

A review of the BOM records today, does not have these high temperatures listed. They appear to have been deleted.

Jeez - there is no conspiracy!!

I can put my thermometer on the back deck and "record" 65C in the shade. This does not make it a reliable reading and it won't be added to official records. The BoM data has been available for decades and used in many papers. The data has remained the same.

[FenceFurniture]

We know that the world is running out of oil and coal. We have ~50 years worth of oil, and at current rates, 150 years of coal. Looking at the more critical (time wise) of the two means we will need a very good alternative motor for vehicles to be up and running totally efficiently by, shall we say, 20 years from now so that we can have a smooth transition period. It is obviously not viable to run out of fuel and only have started developing an alternative too close to the end.

And so it is the case: we have started to transition into electric vehicles, but have ONLY just started. They will not be broadly viable for a good while yet, and that is mainly due to batteries and their limitations.

Over time, that will change, and in probably not a lot of time.

Make no mistake - electric vehicles are not totally clean - there is the lithium problem just for a start. However, better scientific minds than mine have determined that electric vehicles are the way forward.

So has industry.

As far as coal is concerned - we may have 3x the time reserves, but the changes in the electricity industry that are already happening will see an end to the filthy dirty crap as a natural consequence of development of electric vehicles, home solar et al. So if it is going to be phased out as a result of economics, why not get on with it apace, and take up the insurance of cleaning up the CO2 emissions....you know....just in case CC is actually a real planet threatening thing.....

Coming to the part that I just don't understand:
What IS it exactly that CC deniers are so concerned about? I mean really, what is it?
We know that petroleum/diesel powered vehicles are on a hiding to nothing and WILL be replaced pretty soon. Once the infrastructure is up and running with simple quick recharging you will NOT be able to sell your petrol vehicle for anything more than scrap value or possibly antique value if it is mint.
Are they (CCDs) concerned about jobs? If so then oh puh-lease :doh:, this is like the argument in the 70s about computers taking all our jobs - the jobs that were superceded were replaced by jobs in....guess what...the IT industry! Or the really crappy jobs were gone, and people got better jobs. Unemployment is within the same realm as it always has been (i.e. <10%). New industries create businesses and new jobs....it's as simple as that.

If it's not jobs that is the problem, then is it the cost? As near as I can tell the $100,000 Tesla has about the same luxury standard as most other $100,000 vehicles. There is not a great deal of difference in value for money, as I understand it, and that is an industry in absolute infancy - it can only get better and more affordable.

So cost and jobs just won't be issues. What else is left that is objectionable about acknowledging Climate Change? Is it just pure bloody minded stubbornness in having to admit error?

Industry is crying out for some certainty in Govt policy so that they can invest - Industry believes in CC (errrr, 'cept those industries that have a rather large vested interest in perpetuating lazy Coal as good). Jaysus, even the Tobacco industry has invested hugely in eCigs because they see tobacco as on the way out (and don't believe half of what you read about eCigs...I have first hand experience - they are nowhere near as damaging as tobacco - unless you continually inhale the biggest possible lungful as part of an official competition....only in 'Merica). Won't be long before the oil companies start investing in Solar and electric vehicles. They have to, or go out of business within 50 years.

What is it?
Anybody?

[A Duke]

Hi,
A couple of hundred years ago they said we would all have drowned in horse droppings by now, then some dick head invented the internal combustion engine and saved us all.
Now there's a thought.

[Toymaker Len]

It is a great irony to see this thread running after nearly two years. Up until now the ccders have been able to look you in the face and say, to quote Tony Abbot "Climate change is crap!" but not any more. Not when we all realise as a country that the scientists were right when they said that the destruction from fires and drought and other disasters would be degrees of magnitude more expensive than getting on with transition away from fossil fuels. Now we have the proof and this is just the beginning. It is going to get worse and lets not say that we weren't warned. Two huge warnings that I am aware of...
1...The worlds biggest re-insurance companies (now Swiss-Re and Munich-Re) announced in 1974 that they were building the future cost of global warming into insurance costs. No ideology involved, purely money calculated with forensic actuarial precision.
2...The British parliament commissioned a very serious senior public servant to write and exhaustive study on every concievable aspect of global warming. The report called 'The Stern Report' was released in 2006. In it hundreds of pages detailing the science and the likely consequences with the conclusion that global warming is real and the effects are going to be disaster piled on disaster.
Now here we are. If you are still in denial it matters very little except that you become an increasingly foolish figure. The rest of us are waking from our slumber and see what we have to get a real leader into power who has an idea of how to shape this new future. We have been blinded by Murdochs propaganda machine and the right wing think tanks for too long.

[RossM]

Hi,
A couple of hundred years ago they said we would all have drowned in horse droppings by now, then some dick head invented the internal combustion engine and saved us all.
Now there's a thought.

It was (supposedly) about 100 years ago. and "They" were not a scientific consensus, but (again, supposedly) urban planners. You are talking about the myth often called "The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894". This is alarmist nonsense dreamed up and spread on the Internet by a guy called Stephen Davies, to promote some of his ideas in a right wing American so called "think tank"(FEE). Despite people looking, there is no evidence of any of this being true - no article in the Times and no urban planning conference. Made up by a guy to promote is story; he provided no references and no other evidence beyond his assertions. FEE seems to be an institution that tailors a message in return for a fee (pun intended).

There is evidence that people of the time were concerned with manure as a problem (e.g. see this from 1893 The Horse-world of London - William John Gordon - Google Books (https://books.google.com.au/books?redir_esc=y&id=5t8JAAAAMAAJ&pg=PA46&sig=ACfU3U3klDQrcByWcoCp0js_zVH6MaJbDw&focus=searchwithinvolume&q=manure)) but no panic & no dire predictions can be found.

[cava]

George, unfortunately that is only anecdotal evidence, and dependent upon what type of thermometer (accuracy), was it calibrated correctly, was the temp taken correctly etc. I remember buckling roads too - everyone does - but have they changed the mixture/techniques for roadbuilding to counteract this phenomenon? You'd have to think that they should have. That evidence most certainly does not prove that CC does not exist (which I think is what you are hinting at).

The thing about recording temperatures is that Stevenson Screens (https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=stevenson+screen+temperature) have only been in use since the late 1800s and didn't become a standard until quite some time after that. This means that old temperature records are not reliable - very unfortunately.

it.

Fully understand where you’re coming from, however I know for a fact that, back in the day, journalists verified claims and stories.

In this case it would have been with the BOM. So even though our amateurish temperature reading by a non-NATA calibrated thermometer, may not have been spot-on, it would have been within cooee of the real figure.

We had a close family friend that was associated with the newspapers as an editor (or some such position), and slander/here say/lies etc was big on their list of telling the truth.

[AlexS]

The single greatest factor in these current fires is the build up of fuel on the ground which is the direct result of the tree huggers having made it almost impossible to do low intensity burns which the aboriginals practiced for thousands of yrs in alternate seasons together with a forest worth of red tape, paper wielding bureaucratic public servants justify there existence at all levels of government and the closure of fire trails or minimal maintenance of them. I have travelled the fire trail that went from the Putty Rd, up over Gospers Mnt and to Newnes/Rylston, it used to be the training ground for the army and remote terrain air strip training for the RAAF, but the tree huggers have made sure its almost obliterated and now we are waiting to hear if we have lost the one natural habitat of the Wollemi Pines.
There are many documented cases of farmers having lost crops, livestock, sheds, homes because they are no longer allowed to clear fire breaks. They have stopped the farmers from grazing cattle in the high country of the Snowy which has led to an excessive fuel build up.

There's been a lot of blame cast on the "tree huggers" by the Murdoch gutter press and the lunar right of the National and Liberal parties, and this has been picked up by people who can't be bothered to check the facts. It's claimed that they have prevented fuel reduction burns that would have reduced the severity of the fires.
I don't carry any brief for the Greens; they can be as crazy and corrupt as any other political party, but let's have a look at some facts.
The Greens NSW currently have 58 councillors on 32 local councils around NSW. There are 158 councils in NSW.
So they are averaging less than two greens on the each of the small number of councils on which they have any representation. Most of the councils on which they are represented are inner city ones, which have very little bush in which to carry out fuel reduction burns. Even in our area, which surprisingly, has two Green councillors, they have had no influence over the burns that have or have not been carried out. In my area, they attempted four hazard reduction burns, but only one could be carried out. Three had to be cancelled, not because of any opposition, but because of weather conditions.
Responsibilities for the burns lies across the Rural Fire Service (72000 volunteers, 900+ state government staff), Forestry Corporation of NSW (owned by the NSW Government) and National Parks NSW ( a NSW Government department). In the state parliament, the Greens have 3 out of 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly, and 3 out of 42 in the Legislative Assembly - hardly a position of strength from which to control, or even influence, policies on burn offs.
The only paperwork involved in preparing fire breaks is there to make sure they're done safely. Before the current safeguards, it wasn't uncommon for a burn done by a farmer to get away, and even during the current bushfires there have been several cases of illegal backburns. Farmers can be as stupid as anyone else.
It's easy to blame public servants, because they can't answer back. Just because you aren't allowed to do whatever you want doesn't mean they are wielding what little power they have improperly. They have to carry out the laws that the politicians you elect make, and where they have the power to make decisions, there's hell to pay if they get it wrong. Can you imagine the uproar the Daily Telegraph or Herald sun would make if a fire started from an authorised burn-off by a farmer.
It would be more helpful if people checked their facts before blaming "greenies" and "tree-huggers".

[FenceFurniture]

Not that cold in NZ, apparently.
New Zealand bushfires flare amid fears country becoming more ‘flammable’ | World news | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/07/new-zealand-bushfires-flare-amid-fears-country-becoming-more-flammable)

[AlexS]

When I was growing up in Sydney in the 60’s, it was so hot that the newspapers used to have competitions for readers to report the highest temperature. The daily prizes was a lottery ticket.

Pavements were buckling, and this happened 2-3 times on front of our own house on successive years. We lived in Haberfield.

i remember recording 113F and ringing the newspaper to report it. Didn’t get the prize as it was not the highest temperature for the day.

A review of the BOM records today, does not have these high temperatures listed. They appear to have been deleted.

The reason your "record" isn't in the BoM records is because it wasn't recorded in a standard weather station. There are very specific standards for these including, for temperature records, the height of the instruments and the design and colour of the Stevenson screen in which they are housed. If you hold a thermometer out in the sun, you will not record the air temperature, you will record the temperature of the thermometer, which is effected by the radiant heat from the sun. If you hold it low down near a bitumen road you will record the temperature of the road, again, not the air temperature.
I can assure you that if you take the trouble and pay some money for the time you are wasting, you can go to the original records and compare them to those freely available on the BoM website. In almost every case they will be the same, and where there are differences the reasons, and the method used to make the changes, will be documented.

[FenceFurniture]

Responsibilities for the burns lies across the Rural Fire Service (72000 volunteers, 900+ state government staff), Forestry Corporation of NSW (owned by the NSW Government) and National Parks NSW ( a NSW Government department). And how much money has been gouged out of the NSW NPWS budget by the Premier? National Parks are nowhere near as important as rebuilding concrete stadia that are just 20-30 years old. (somewhat ironic that the justification for tearing down the Sydney Football Stadium was because of fire risk....)

[Chris Parks]

Craig Kelly opening his mouth to change feet

Australia fires: Craig Kelly slammed by Piers Morgan over climate change denial in car crash British TV interview (https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/you-are-a-climate-denier-craig-kelly-in-car-crash-british-tv-interview-over-bushfire-crisis-20200107-p53pd9.html)

[AlexS]

And how much money has been gouged out of the NSW NPWS budget by the Premier? National Parks are nowhere near as important as rebuilding concrete stadia that are just 20-30 years old. (somewhat ironic that the justification for tearing down the Sydney Football Stadium was because of fire risk....)

Quite a bit, I believe. It's a bit hard to tell, because they've merged/demerged departments, so a department may appear to have more money, but have many more staff to support, with the overall reduction appearing on another department's books. Not sure if that's what's happened with NPWS.

[FenceFurniture]

At least one of the absolute experts on fire says the more hazard reduction burns are not the answer.
Victorian fire chief says calls for more fuel reduction burns are an 'emotional load of rubbish' - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-07/fuel-reduction-burn-debate-rubbish-says-vic-fire-chief/11849522)

[cava]

The reason your "record" isn't in the BoM records is because it wasn't recorded in a standard weather station. There are very specific standards for these including, for temperature records, the height of the instruments and the design and colour of the Stevenson screen in which they are housed. If you hold a thermometer out in the sun, you will not record the air temperature, you will record the temperature of the thermometer, which is effected by the radiant heat from the sun. If you hold it low down near a bitumen road you will record the temperature of the road, again, not the air temperature.
I can assure you that if you take the trouble and pay some money for the time you are wasting, you can go to the original records and compare them to those freely available on the BoM website. In almost every case they will be the same, and where there are differences the reasons, and the method used to make the changes, will be documented.

All very valid Alex,

And I concur that the recording of the temperature results should be precise and to a given area.

But:

1. There must have been very hot years over a substantial area of Sydney and surrounds for at least one major newspaper to have a regular daily competition reporting the ‘HIGH’ temperatures. And yet the BOM figures from multiple weather stations do not report this higher than usual temperature range.

2. The cracked/damaged pavements around Sydney due to expansion. In my own case, I remember this happening 2-3 times in 2-3 individual years outside my own home. Each time the concrete was repaired with the appropriate expansion joints.
Of interest, is that you could see underneath the raised concrete path. The foundation bed was coal - my understanding was that coal was used prior to WW1 as bedding for concrete paths. This aligns with the fact that Haberfield was/is a heritage suburb. The path appears to have been the original path from when it was initially laid down.

It has to be assumed that if the temperatures were reasonably static over the previous ~60 years, there would be evidence of ‘maintenance’ to the path if regular temperatures caused the issues I viewed in the 1960 ‘s.

It certainly is food for thought!

[FenceFurniture]

Is this naturally occurring CC?

466678

[woodPixel]

Ive posted this cartoon before.... but its so true...

What I DON'T UNDERSTAND about CCD-ers, is *why*.

WHY are they so violently opposed. WHY do they seemingly go over the handbars overs something that is obvious? WHY do they see no change, when a 10 year old child can see it?

Are their brains dysfunctional? Isn't it strange how its the same mental raving mob thats in the Liberal, Ultra right, shouty, religious, rich crowd....

The arguement is irrelevant. The fixing of it is critical.

466679

[FenceFurniture]

466679:roflmao2:

[FenceFurniture]

What Is the Sun's Role in Climate Change? – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet (https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2910/what-is-the-suns-role-in-climate-change/)That is a very interesting read Ross - thanks for posting. I have subscribed to NASA's newsletter.

Significant takeaways from that are:
"Per Rignot et al 2019, Antarctica is losing six times more ice mass annually now than 40 years ago"

"We know subtle changes in Earth’s orbit around the Sun are responsible for the comings and goings of the past ice ages. But the warming we’ve seen over the last few decades is too rapid to be linked to changes in Earth’s orbit, and too large to be caused by solar activity."

"...while a grand minimum might cool the planet as much as 0.3 degrees C, this would, at best, slow down (but not reverse) human-caused global warming. There would be a small decline of energy reaching Earth, and just three years of current carbon dioxide concentration growth would make up for it."


Climate change, yes, we do have climate change, look at the ice ages, they came, went and came again

From NASA: It is virtually certain that orbital forcing will be unable to trigger widespread glaciation during the next 1,000 years. (snip) Climate models simulate no glacial inception during the next 50,000 years if CO2 concentrations remain above 300 ppm. We don't need to plan for 1,000 years, let alone 50,000.....we need to get through the next 100....maybe even the next 10 at the rate things are going currently!


If the CCDs can quote people with the authority of NASA, or the IPCC with evidence to the contrary then that is worth reading and observing. The opinions of the likes of Alan Jones, Chris Kenny, Andrew Bolt, and the biggest climate eggspurt of them all - Murdoch - mean absolutely nothing. That bunch are just cashing in on the prevailing mood of the naysayers - after all, if they didn't have something to beat up and moan about, what would be the point of Sky After Fark?

[Chris Parks]

At least one of the absolute experts on fire says the more hazard reduction burns are not the answer.
Victorian fire chief says calls for more fuel reduction burns are an 'emotional load of rubbish' - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-07/fuel-reduction-burn-debate-rubbish-says-vic-fire-chief/11849522)

According to him and there are always other views NSW fires: Hunter Valley property owners say indigenous cultural burning saved their property (https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/it-s-miraculous-owners-say-cultural-burning-saved-their-property-20200103-p53okc.html)

If anyone lives in a bushfire prone area they either accept the risk or they should move. My backyard is The Royal National Park boundary and the many forum members who have been to my place will tell you how it is situated on the top of a gully. The other day someone asked what was our plan, I responded with grab what is not insured and run which is exactly what we did in 2000 when this town was evacuated. I have been in some big fires and anyone who is delusional enough to think they can put a big fire out is snorting some good stuff. There is no way to describe the experience to anyone, it just is not possible. I left the firies after a fire went over the top of the truck sometime before the 2000 fire and have no desire to go back.

[FenceFurniture]

It's finally raining properly here right now, but there's also a fair bit of loud and bright lightning.

466691

[Chris Parks]

My take on burn offs is most probably a bit different to other peoples. The burn offs are too big in height and get into the tree foliage, the foliage dies back and then drops onto the ground and the debris fuel load is made bigger when the next big wind goes through creating a bigger problem. What they should do is then repeat in the same area at a very low height some months later to get rid of that debris covering but in reality the whole of Oz needs to be burnt and that ain't gonna happen. When we had a fire that went into the National Park we were supposed to ring them and they would respond and put it out. Quite often we couldn't find a phone to ring up from and the two way radio didn't work either.

[FenceFurniture]

According to him and there are always other views NSW fires: Hunter Valley property owners say indigenous cultural burning saved their property (https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/it-s-miraculous-owners-say-cultural-burning-saved-their-property-20200103-p53okc.html)Yes but he's not saying that hazard reduction doesn't work - just not the only thing in the mix. I have no doubt that experienced Black Fellas know exactly what they are doing. Just another reason why we need their culture to survive and thrive.

[woodPixel]

Here's another thing to bake your noodle...

Industrial methane emissions are underreported, study finds | Cornell Chronicle (http://news.cornell.edu/stories/2019/06/industrial-methane-emissions-are-underreported-study-finds)

[Glider]

I've recently decided that I don't believe in cancer.

mick

[fletty]

Last week, Mrs fletty and I were trapped on the fire devastated NSW South Coast. We were evacuated a number of times as a trip back via Canberra or the Snowy Mountains was blocked by fires and the trip north on the coast went through some terrible scenes. We luckily were self sufficient for food and water as we didn’t want to use anything that was needed by displaced locals and we slept in the car. Now, my memory of sleeping in the car a few decades ago is a memory of romance and excitement but the current reality is one of rolling out of the car in the early hours of daylight and wandering around for an hour or so looking like the hunchback of Notre Dame until my skeleton could straighten up again. I spent some time in the evacuation centres hoping to get reliable information because, with power gone, mobile phones and the web soon followed. We had the car radio but the ABC’s far south coast radio station, which is the emergency station, appeared to have burnt out. In these evacuation centres I constantly heard locals, who have suffered more than I can even imagine, talking about how these fires behaved differently to any they had encountered before and the general consensus was that these fires FIRST travelled along the ground not through the tree tops and that they were then exposed to the likelihood of a second wave travelling through the crowns.
My photos ( and only the less confronting ones are included here) showed the crowns relatively intact but the ground line utterly devastated.....

466708 466710

........ and so it easy to see why the locals, and especially the experienced ones, believe that lack of back burning is the most significant culprit to enable such an historic drought to turn to fire devastation.

[Glider]

There's possibly no such thing as a 100% safe hazard reduction burn. I can see why authorities are reluctant to carry out too many because the media scream blue murder when one goes awry. That narrows the windows of opportunity available over winter.

I'd like to see the fire spotting towers manned again. Someone told me they stopped the practice for safety reasons. I'm trying to understand why the people in the tower couldn't see the danger approaching and get out. Water bombing a small blaze must surely be more effective than a major inferno.

mick

[AlexS]

If the CCDs can quote people with the authority of NASA, or the IPCC with evidence to the contrary then that is worth reading and observing. The opinions of the likes of Alan Jones, Chris Kenny, Andrew Bolt, and the biggest climate eggspurt of them all - Murdoch - mean absolutely nothing. That bunch are just cashing in on the prevailing mood of the naysayers - after all, if they didn't have something to beat up and moan about, what would be the point of Sky After Fark?

Yeah, but, FF, you left out the ultimate expert, "Some bloke on Facebook".

Was listening to a researcher interviewed on Sydney ABC radio just now. A very brief summary of his take on hazard reduction burns was as follows: For a period of from 2-6 years after the burn, the likelihood of destructive fires is reduced. After that, for a period of up to 20 (I think) years the risk returns to high levels, until the forest matures and the amount of ground cover and fuel again reduces. Bear in mind, this is one researcher, and I'll have to look up the reference and check my memory of the numbers.

[FenceFurniture]

That narrows the windows of opportunity available over winter.Which is now the start, and in 2020 the probable end, of the bushfire season.


Someone told me they stopped the practice for safety reasons.Summink to do with potentially having to climb through the methane cloud of the previous ladder climber? Having had the misfortune to have walked through a couple of methane clouds at a certain Oberon farm, I can quite understand the danger.....

[Bushmiller]

We don't need to plan for 1,000 years, let alone 50,000.....we need to get through the next 100....maybe even the next 10 at the rate things are going currently!



Brett

Well said. In fact I think if we can get through and adapt for the early years (10 to 100) those remaining years will be easily taken care of by the strategies already in place. Remember that old adage of "Look after the pennies and the pounds will take care of themselves."

You have to say that it is highly ironic that a country that is demonstrably one of those most likely to suffer from adverse weather changes is so adamant that it is not happening. The Emu is a very close relative of the Ostrich I believe. Perhaps we have too many Ostriches in Oz. They all have two legs. Some have a small head and some a boofhead.

Canberra has had a few smoke issues and has recorded it's worst smoke pollution ever. In fact all government depts were closed as a result: Including the one that deals with bushfire crises.

Regards
Paul

[FenceFurniture]

After that, for a period of up to 20 (I think) years the risk returns to high levels, until the forest matures and the amount of ground cover and fuel again reduces.I would have thought it would also depend on rainfall in the given period too - not because of rain retarding fires but because it would promote rotting and breaking down of the leaf/bark litter.

[Bushmiller]

Craig Kelly opening his mouth to change feet

Australia fires: Craig Kelly slammed by Piers Morgan over climate change denial in car crash British TV interview (https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/you-are-a-climate-denier-craig-kelly-in-car-crash-british-tv-interview-over-bushfire-crisis-20200107-p53pd9.html)

Chris

Talk about putting both feet in your mouth! Pome weather girl. Tobin took "umbrage" (love that word. I have a mate whose nickname was "umbrage."). Her qualifications are a degree in physics and meteorology and spent four years as an aviation caster at the RAF before taking a role as a weather forecaster with the BBC. Kelly was a furniture salesman before entering parliament.......!

Now I have nothing against salesman, having spent a little time as one myself in a former life, but is this indicative of government officials lack of knowledge and their consequent denials that climate change is happening. It seems to be the only plausible explanation for their attitudes.

Regards
Paul

[FenceFurniture]

Anyone still need convincing about greenhouse gases causing Climate Change?
What's missing for the argument to be convincing?
What will it actually take for man-made CC deniers to be convinced?

Given the current situation, the overwhelming evidence and agreement amongst the scientists, I think it is not an unfair question to ask of deniers: name the threshold where the denial arguments are found and accepted to be fallacious (by the deniers).




What if it is ultimately proven that the deniers were wrong all along, and that it is then TOO LATE to do enough about it to stop the catastrophic, irreversible damage?
What are the deniers going to do or say then? "SORRY"?




Coming to the part that I just don't understand:

(snip)
Are they (CCDs) concerned about jobs? If it's not jobs that is the problem, then is it the cost?

What is it?
Anybody?These are not just questions within rhetoric: these are questions that need answering by deniers. In the face of the current evidence you can't just say "It's all bullsh and I don't believe it" without saying what the reasons for not implementing change are.

An absence of answers can only mean one thing: there is no reason not to change, and there is no reason to keep denying.

Is silence to be interpreted as a tacit concession?

[FenceFurniture]

"Prophecy" is a poor journalese choice of word, and "Forecast" is much better, but:
Ross Garnaut's climate change prophecy is coming true and it's going to cost Australia billions, experts warn - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-08/economic-bushfires-billions-ross-garnaut-climate-change/11848388)

[Bushmiller]

Have a read of this. A comparison of attitudes from politicians on both sides of politics in relation to crises:

Friendlyjordies - Dear Your Majesty | Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/friendlyjordies/videos/595460241025646/UzpfSTM1OTMxMzM0MDg1NjE2MDoyNjgwMTM2NDM1NDQwNDk0/)

Needless to say Morrison does not fare well. Even Abbott gets a bouquet (on a personal level as a human being). In fact I would recommend that if you are a Morrison fan you do not open the link. I cannot recall a more complete annihilation of a single person in some time. There again, there is a lot of ammunition available.

Regards
Paul

[AlexS]

I would have thought it would also depend on rainfall in the given period too - not because of rain retarding fires but because it would promote rotting and breaking down of the leaf/bark litter.
He mentioned that the times depend on a number of factors including type of forest & climate.

[Beardy]

I'd like to see the fire spotting towers manned again. Someone told me they stopped the practice for safety reasons. I'm trying to understand why the people in the tower couldn't see the danger approaching and get out. Water bombing a small blaze must surely be more effective than a major inferno.

mick

They could probably do this via satellite these days I would of thought?

[FenceFurniture]

They could probably do this via satellite these days I would of thought?That's a very good thought. Overcast weather would be problematic but it would certainly be another tool for the kit. A BIG advantage of satellite spotting would be that the precise co-ordinates of the smoke could be parsed along to the water bombing aircraft instantly.

[woodPixel]

Have a read of this. A comparison of attitudes from politicians on both sides of politics in relation to crises:

Friendlyjordies - Dear Your Majesty | Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/friendlyjordies/videos/595460241025646/UzpfSTM1OTMxMzM0MDg1NjE2MDoyNjgwMTM2NDM1NDQwNDk0/)

Needless to say Morrison does not fare well. Even Abbott gets a bouquet (on a personal level as a human being). In fact I would recommend that if you are a Morrison fan you do not open the link. I cannot recall a more complete annihilation of a single person in some time. There again, there is a lot of ammunition available.

This link is Pure gold. I despise all poli's, but Bushmillers referral is spot on.


https://www.facebook.com/friendlyjordies/videos/595460241025646/

[woodPixel]

That's a very good thought. Overcast weather would be problematic but it would certainly be another tool for the kit. A BIG advantage of satellite spotting would be that the precise co-ordinates of the smoke could be parsed along to the water bombing aircraft instantly.

UV and infrared are transparent through clouds?

[Bohdan]

Overcast weather would be problematic but it would certainly be another tool for the kit.

Infra red spotting would not be affected by cloud cover.

[FenceFurniture]

Right you are then - satellite spotting it is then!

Paul, that is an excellent takedown by friendlyjordie. I've seen him in action ripping into Clive Palmer because CP wanted to sue him because Jordie called him Fatty McF*ckhead. It can be found on YouTube.

[FenceFurniture]

In fact I would recommend that if you are a Morrison fan you do not open the link.That should read
"if you are the Morrison fan"

[Bushmiller]

In the first instance, and perhaps even before we develop strategies to combat the effects of climate change, we may need some of those Boeing 747 water bombers.

747 Supertanker - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/747_Supertanker)

One issue I can see for Australia is the question of where they can take off and land. For example the Millmerran International airport is not rated at anything larger than a twin engine turbo prop. I guess that most of the fires are within 300km of the coast and major airports. There may also be better access to water supplies too. I will look forward to seeing them water bomb in our region (assuming a fire of course) at less than 500m. About three large rainwater tanks in one trip (74000L)

Regards
Paul

[NCArcher]

Right you are then - satellite spotting it is then!


Does Australia have access/control of a geostationary, IR capable satellite with sensors sensitive enough to pinpoint small areas over all of Australia? We seem to get hotspot data from some of NASA's weather satellites. I should state that I have not done any research and get all my information from 'some bloke on facebook'.

[FenceFurniture]

A mix of aircraft is the key of course. At 74000 litres it would take about 8 Elvis trips (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elvis_(helicopter)) (9500 litres) to get the same volume of water, but they are two different things. A massive dump from whatever safe altitude a Jumbo can do up here would take at least 60 minutes from Mascot (return time) plus refill time plus delays due to it being an International Airport. I do not know if a Jumbo can land at Richmond Air Base....wait a sec....yes they can, so that would be a much better solution, but I don't know how long it takes to get the altitude needed, nor at what safe altitude above the escarpment it would need.

On this map you can see Mascot Airport at the extreme lower right, Richmond in the upper middle, and Echo Point on the left. Richmond is just 45kms from the fire epicentre at that time.

466723


Elvis, OTH, can deliver its 9500 litres every 6 minutes in this particular location (difficult flying around the Blue Mountains escarpments too - they can be 500m high and at 90°), and with pretty good low altitude precision. Before Xmas there was massive 'copter activity here at the Ruined Castle fire (just 3kms off Echo Point). The refill lake is just 1km from my house, and so the round trip is about 13kms. I observed both ends of the cycle more times than I can count. I never did get to see Elvis (or whichever one is "730") refilling but I could hear it and see it rising up from my front yard. Observing it dropping down into the valley Echo Point was amazing. You don't realise just how far down it goes from the lookout, but the copter became tiny. Then it would come up and fly right past where I was standing near Echoes Guesthouse on the edge of the escarpment. It was about 40-50 metres away, and you can then see it is a very substantial copter! Bloody thing dripped water on the car once!

Ruined Castle is the blue diamond at the bottom, refill lake is at the top and I'm just above the A32 sign. Blue diamond to blue lake is 6.6kms

466724

Where I see a Jumbo being useful is to attack a cliff fire like this (https://www.google.com/search?q=fire+climbing+cliff+blue+mountains&client=firefox-b-d&sxsrf=ACYBGNQxd3aHKCvLAgJineoI0sdscBEKdQ:1578443990167&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=H5PJNJn_kZnfwM%253A%252C8f57t9ptrKv9jM%252C_&vet=1&usg=AI4_-kSRxrRkEzxQb4nVIct_cj15_JZIww&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiJrtOK4vLmAhXrILcAHYk-BzUQ9QEwA3oECAYQCQ#imgrc=H5PJNJn_kZnfwM:). That was up near Blackheath I believe - I didn't see that particular one but I did see the same thing shooting up Narrowneck Peninsula from the Ruined Castle fire in mid December. It's not quite vertical there - probably about 75-80°. Elvis would be a bit useless in that situation.

[FenceFurniture]

Does Australia have access/control of a geostationary, IR capable satellite with sensors sensitive enough to pinpoint small areas over all of Australia?Probably not and I doubt they've even thought of it.

[FenceFurniture]

Markkr, how's the grass at your place? (he has the greenest thickest grass I've ever seen, on an ex-dairy farm, so I'm interested to see what drought effect there is)

[rustynail]

In the first instance, and perhaps even before we develop strategies to combat the effects of climate change, we may need some of those Boeing 747 water bombers.

747 Supertanker - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/747_Supertanker)

One issue I can see for Australia is the question of where they can take off and land. For example the Millmerran International airport is not rated at anything larger than a twin engine turbo prop. I guess that most of the fires are within 300km of the coast and major airports. There may also be better access to water supplies too. I will look forward to seeing them water bomb in our region (assuming a fire of course) at less than 500m. About three large rainwater tanks in one trip (74000L)

Regards
Paul
Paul, I can assure you, from first hand experience, those 747's are the best thing since sliced bread. I lost count on how many loads they dropped over our area on S#*t Saturday but it was dozens. There is absolutely no comparison between the planes and the choppers. Loaded with pink retardant they are the most decisive thing against fire we have at our disposal. Many houses were saved only by the amount of water that could be dumped at a time. The fire was so intense, lesser amounts were not reaching the ground due to the heat and evaporation. If a method can be devised to fast fill these planes we will be much the better for it. Unfortunately, our Premier has decided we dont need any more planes. Can someone please tell me why we have politicians.

[FenceFurniture]

Perhaps this belongs in the Electricity thread, but this thread is active, and it's all related.
Monash Uni seems to have made a very exciting battery breakthrough (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-08/lithium-sulfur-battery-greener-cheaper-and-more-efficient/11849590).

[FenceFurniture]

Paul, I can assure you, from first hand experience, those 747's are the best thing since sliced bread. I lost count on how many loads they dropped over our area on S#*t Saturday but it was dozens. There is absolutely no comparison between the planes and the choppers. Loaded with pink retardant they are the most decisive thing against fire we have at our disposal. Many houses were saved only by the amount of water that could be dumped at a time. The fire was so intense, lesser amounts were not reaching the ground due to the heat and evaporation. If a method can be devised to fast fill these planes we will be much the better for it. Unfortunately, our Premier has decided we dont need any more planes. Can someone please tell me why we have politicians.G'day Ken, I've been wondering how you fared. Yes, that illustrates exactly what I meant by the two different approaches being needed - nothing like a big dump. Where were they taking off and landing from? Richmond? That's only 20kms from you, as the Jumbo flies...

[markkr]

Brown Brett, utterly brown.

[Beardy]

Does Australia have access/control of a geostationary, IR capable satellite with sensors sensitive enough to pinpoint small areas over all of Australia? We seem to get hotspot data from some of NASA's weather satellites. I should state that I have not done any research and get all my information from 'some bloke on facebook'.

I don’t know but I know South Australia monitor and open and close their outback roads due to inclement weather via satellite observations

[woodPixel]

Can someone please tell me why we have politicians.

Without them to blame, we'd have to blame ourselves....

[ian]

Paradoxically, about the last thing we need RIGHT now is heavy rain.
The risk of heavy rain triggering catastrophic flooding is just too great.


From Canada we've been following the situation back home.
What we need is a prolonged period of gentle steady rain. Something like 600 to 900 mm spread over 3 to 4 months.
All heavy rain will do is run right off the current bone dry ground.

Unfortunately, I expect what we will get is heavy rain that runs off more than it soaks in ...

[rustynail]

G'day Ken, I've been wondering how you fared. Yes, that illustrates exactly what I meant by the two different approaches being needed - nothing like a big dump. Where were they taking off and landing from? Richmond? That's only 20kms from you, as the Jumbo flies...G'Day Bret, Yes they are stationed at and flying out of Richmond RAAF base. A good location for them as it is pretty central for the rest of the State. They were a Godsend for Bilpin, I dont think there would have been much of the district left without them. IMHO we need enough of these planes to allow for the down time in refilling so when one leaves another takes it's place. So much of our current fire defense is only penury. If we are going to prevent something like this happening again there are going to have to be many changes made. I think the 747's was the best idea so far.

[ian]

G'Day Bret, Yes they are stationed at and flying out of Richmond RAAF base. A good location for them as it is pretty central for the rest of the State. They were a Godsend for Bilpin,
(snip)
I think the 747's was the best idea so far.
are you sure the fire bombers are 747s

The one's I've seen look a lot like the much smaller 737s to me

[Bohdan]

If we are going to prevent something like this happening again there are going to have to be many changes made.

Since in the minds of our current pollys "its already happened so there is no need to worry about it", as it probably won't happen again in their political lifetimes, there is little chance that any really effective changes will occure.

[FenceFurniture]

What we need is a way of communicating our displeasure en-mass. A petition? I wouldn't expect the Morrison supporter to sign it, but everyone else could.

BTW, does anyone know who the Morrison supporter is, or where he or she lives?

[woodPixel]

Remove humans, nature rebounds.... Study shows animal life thriving around Fukushima (https://news.uga.edu/animal-life-thriving-around-fukushima/)

[doug3030]

BTW, does anyone know who the Morrison supporter is, or where he or she lives?

I will put my hand up for that in light of the current alternatives. We don't really have much choice right now do we?

[FenceFurniture]

Your sacrifice is legendary Doug.

[AlexS]

Paradoxically, about the last thing we need RIGHT now is heavy rain.
The risk of heavy rain triggering catastrophic flooding is just too great.


From Canada we've been following the situation back home.
What we need is a prolonged period of gentle steady rain. Something like 600 to 900 mm spread over 3 to 4 months.
All heavy rain will do is run right off the current bone dry ground.

Unfortunately, I expect what we will get is heavy rain that runs off more than it soaks in ...

Quite right. If we get heavy rain it will run off, taking a lot of ash and topsoil with it. This will effect the turbidity, which can reduce the effectiveness of water treatment plants, and also increase dissolved solids. These can effect invertebrates and fish.
It would be nice to get a week or so of 20mm a day, then a break to allow a bit of cover to grow, before we get heavier heavier rain. If only we could have weather to order.

[ian]

It would be nice to get a week or so of 20mm a day, then a break to allow a bit of cover to grow, before we get heavier heavier rain. If only we could have weather to order.
Quite right Alex -- we need to get weather to order

[FenceFurniture]

Be careful reading this:
BOM review shows 2019 was a year of weather extremes - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-09/bom-2019-review-portrays-year-of-weather-extremes/11852500)

Or simply choose to ignore it?

[FenceFurniture]

This is a fascinating short read on Cultural Burning, and the 10 minute HD video at the bottom is excellent. Everything they say makes complete sense.
Indigenous fire practices have been used to quell bushfires for thousands of years, experts say - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-09/indigenous-cultural-fire-burning-method-has-benefits-experts-say/11853096)

They speak of getting the country healthy again, and it seems to me that if CBs were pursued as potentially the main "tool in the bag" then it would also greatly strengthen the Black Fella's bonding with their land, and greatly improve their own health at the same time. We've tried to "help" them to be white for too long now, so maybe it's time to just let them be black?