beuro of meteorology

[toolbagsPLUS]

Why do they tell us what happened today on the news? I suppose you think they should be telling us what will happen tomorrow?

As a matter of fact if it they could be more accurate that the weather then yes that would be helpful.

But there aren't that many clairvoyants out that that get paid as much as news readers so sadly I don't think it will happen, but a pleasant thought to ponder anyway.


Cheers


Steve

[silentC]

I read a book once that started out being about weather forecasting but ended up being about something called Chaos Theory. The famous image from that was a butterfly flapping it's wings in Brazil and causing a tornado in Texas. This came from the idea that when you are looking at something as complex as the weather, the tiniest change in an input to the system can cause huge differences in the outcome. If the temperature varies by a fraction of a degree the day before, it can make all the difference to whether it ultimately rains or not. How can anyone make reliable predictions in a system like that? There are too many variables that have too big an affect on the result.

[weisyboy]

tehy why wast the time and money trying?

[AlexS]

tehy why wast the time and money trying?

Because most of the time, they get it right. They may not get it exactly right for your little patch of dirt, but over larger areas they get it right most of the time.
Presumably you've kept the statistics of how well they do, or are you basing your statements on your gut feeling, the same way you'd like to have the weather forecasts done?

[silentC]

I suppose it's better than nothing. It's probably more important for big events like cyclones. They can predict them reasonably well and they can track them and project what areas might get hit. It might still miss them but at least people have warning. If you had to wait for the wind to pick up before battening down the hatches, you'd be in trouble. Yes I know they get those wrong too.

[Big Shed]

Because most of the time, they get it right. They may not get it exactly right for your little patch of dirt, but over larger areas they get it right most of the time.
Presumably you've kept the statistics of how well they do, or are you basing your statements on your gut feeling, the same way you'd like to have the weather forecasts done?

We used to get a 4 day forecast, and each day that would change so that when day 4 became tomorrow it had no similarity to what was forecast for that day 3 days ago.

Now we get a 7 day forecast, same thing happens.

Why give out these forecasts knowing full well that the accuracy is questionable at best?

The other thing that amuses me is that people here are saying "watch the radar". Even that is wildly inaccurate at times. The number of times I look at it and it tells me it is raining where I am, and there is nothing but blue skies for miles around. The reverse also happens, it is raining heavily where I am but the radar tells me there is no rain for a radius of at least 100km.

[silentC]

The radar wont show local showers but it will show larger storms. Depends on where you are in relation to it I think - we are off the Canberra radar and it is a bit patchy by the time it gets over here to the coast. There is a permanent blind spot around Batemans Bay. But usually if it shows rain, then rain will come. It might not rain on my house, but it will rain somewhere around here.

Being a forecaster in Victoria should be easy anyway: today it will be fine/raining/windy/stinking hot.

The best thing for you to do is either stay in your big shed or take an umbrella with you wherever you go.

[BobL]

All the whingers here appear to be suffering from a well known human idosyncranism of "when others get it right we taken no notice, when others get it wrong they we dump on them from a great height". I forget the stats but on average the next day forecasts have improved very significantly over the last few decades. 4 day forecasts are now as accurate as next day forecasts were 50 years ago and 7 day forecasts are as accurate as 4 day forecasts were 20 years ago.

Of course their long range accuracy is questionable, Australia is a big country, but some information is still better than no information. You also get this information essential for free. Oil and gas platform people pay millions of $/year for specific location long range forecasts to protect their installations from damage. They would not do this unless there was some benefit in doing so.

[Big Shed]

You're probably right Bob, except for one thing.............do we really get this information for "free". Was under the impression that our, yours and mine, taxes paid for this service, but I could be wrong.

[silentC]

Anyone in Brisbane? Is it raining there now?

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/radar....=1&lye=1&lyf=1

[masoth]

BoM radar is not showing the present situation. It is refleced 'sound' and about 30 minutes behind. Thick smoke and dust can fool the radar into showing-up like rain - radar is just one tool used to assist the operator distinguish between weather features.

soth

[weisyboy]

ts been raining here all morning started here about midnight. the rain tehy have been forcating all week has finaly arived.

[silentC]

Better late than never

[petersemple]

Over time too I have noticed that Brisbane is a large area (obvious point really). What I mean is that there have been heaps of times when the Bureau have predicted rain, and we have had a bright sunny day all day. Reality is that the forecast was correct, and Brisbane got rain (sometimes quite a lot of rain) but it was nowhere near the part of Brissie I was in. If I had just looked out the window I would have said the forecast was very poor, but in reality it was correct.

Peter

[rotten_66]

Perhaps we should all get the nut forecaster.

Baseplate with a piece of dowel sticking up at about 45 degrees angle and say 10-15cm long and a piece of string hanging down and a nut, usually it is a macadamia, suspended in mid air on a piece of string

If its moving - windy
If its not - calm
If its at right angle to the ground - really windy
If its wet - raining
If its bright - sunny
If its hot - Hot

If you cant see it - foggy/night/some swine stole it