Future of the Australian Electricity Market

Whew! What a ride!

Here is something to read for those interested in how batteries might work in The Real World...

Op-Ed: California'''s batteries kept lights on during heat wave - Los Angeles Times

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Additional tests lie ahead, for California and other states and nations. But after this round, California has a clear lesson for the world: Battery storage is a powerful tool for grids facing new strains from heat, cold, fire, flood or aging networks. And just as important, batteries are key to the zero-carbon future we need to avoid even greater stresses down the line.

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There are plenty of clickable sub-links within that discusses subjects such as "dispatchable" capacity.

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Every new large-scale solar project is now installed with batteries, making all new solar power “dispatchable,” meaning the energy can be used when it’s needed most and not just when the sun is shining

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Interesting reading!

WP

That is interesting information on California. Really I would like and need to know more detail.

"From 5:45 to 8:45 p.m. on that Monday, when the threats of mandatory blackouts were at their greatest, the state’s batteries pumped 2,000 megawatts or more continuously into the grid — a full three hours of grid-saving power. Batteries provided about 4% of supply during the peak demand, which averted rolling blackouts."


The 4% aspect seems low. The 96% of power comes from where exactly?

Regards
Paul

another question that i heard on the radio about elect grids and elect cars:

our local council in trying to get classification on their responsibilties for future public charging stations for electric cars, especially with regards to things like "how do people who only have off street parking charge their cars"

another question that i heard on the radio about elect grids and elect cars:

our local council in trying to get classification on their responsibilties for future public charging stations for electric cars, especially with regards to things like "how do people who only have off street parking charge their cars"

I really wonder how the infrastructure is going to look trying to get a lot of older places and suburbs up to meet electric car targets

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Originally Posted by havabeer69

another question that i heard on the radio about elect grids and elect cars:

our local council in trying to get classification on their responsibilties for future public charging stations for electric cars, especially with regards to things like "how do people who only have off street parking charge their cars"

I really wonder how the infrastructure is going to look trying to get a lot of older places and suburbs up to meet electric car targets

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I think this will be the dealbreaker for EV’s in their current form and capacity. The logistics and practicalities is a massive hurdle to overcome

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Originally Posted by Beardy

I think this will be the dealbreaker for EV’s in their current form and capacity. The logistics and practicalities is a massive hurdle to overcome

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Not sure that it is a deal breaker, but a lot of very creative solutions will be required.

I live in a heritage suburb where you cannot scratch your bum without asking Heritage and Planning permission. About half the houses do not have any off-street parking. Council, essentially, will not allow any changes to the front facade. For example, NBN "grey boxes" had to be on the sides of houses, not the fronts.

My place has a narrow lane that I park in; it is difficult to open the car doors so I park as close to the left wall as possible to allow the drivers door to open as wide as possible. I suppose I could put a charging station on that wall, but am not sure of the likely attitude of Council and the Heritage Commission. Probably swings on how big it is, how visibly intrusive it is. And the guy on the corner has a penchant for appealing everything!

For the 50% without any possibility of off-street parking, then they will have to rely on commercial charging stations, possibly co-located with carparks - eg take your car to work and leave it on the charger at the carpark.

Presume the Council will frown on extension leads across the footpath.

here is an article today discussing exactly this: The EV '''social equity''' dilemma that may put apartment residents off electric cars - ABC News

This is where I think small rural communities are going but not necessarily modelled on Yackandandah

How Yackandandah reached 60 per cent clean energy use, and its plans to be totally renewable - ABC News

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Originally Posted by woodPixel

here is an article today discussing exactly this: The EV '''social equity''' dilemma that may put apartment residents off electric cars - ABC News

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This can be a surprisingly complex issue.

An acquaintance bought an apartment off the plans in the 1980's and specified and got a three car garage and 3 phase power - he got both - the real estate market was very slow at the time and the developer needed the sale. On settlement, he immediately installed cyclone mesh walls and a mesh roller door and used the space to restore veteran cars - non commercially. Half the residents loved watching the cars evolve - he is very accomplished - while the other half hated it happening in "their" parking area. Ten years ago, he got sick of apartment living and bought a house with a bigger garage.

Another friend bought an apartment in the block next door (same developer) and it has one powerpoint to each parking spot. Every time he used a vacuum cleaner on his car the circuit breaker tripped. Investigations revealed that developer had responded to the above situation by limiting the power supply in all basement carparks on all subsequent developments to 7 amp circuits. A trickle charger works, a Miele vacuum doesn't.

Latest development; a resident in the second apartment block has bought a Tesla. Now "Sam" could politely be described as an ill mannered yob and he has alienated many of the co-residents. He is also a very vocal proponent of a "no dogs" policy in a building where dogs are nominally banned but have been accepted in practice for at least 20 years. The body corporate rules ban dogs, but the body corporate routinely adjourns discussions on dog complaints indefinitely. "Sam" is not happy at charging his Tesla at 7 amps. Apparently, there is no cheap option available and it went to the last AGM of the body corporate. The vote was 80% against rewiring and installing a fast charge station. My friend says that the vote was about manners and dogs, and had nothing to do with EV charging. "I'd like a charging station but I would not vote for Sam!"

Building regulations do change over time for various reasons: Some are justified and some are not.

As an example we lived in a small town in the Upper Hunter valley in 1980/81. The local council (Scone) had just put in a new town water system and it was forbidden to install a rainwater tank attached to your dwelling. They wanted to get their money back. Today the attitude would be very different where people are actively encouraged to put in water tanks. In fact, in Toowoomba, 80Km from where we now live, it is compulsory for new dwellings to have a rainwater tank. I am not sure about the requirements for our little town, which is under the so-called, but woefully mis-named, Toowoomba super shire. However, as we live in an older house and also have approximately 100,000L of rain water storage I don't think they will be complaining too much.

I can see a time when all new buildings require solar on the roof and EV charging outlets irrespective of whether they are stand alone houses or appartments. As that becomes the norm existing appartments will begin to make arrangements for charging facilities or else lose their tenants to places that do have these facilities. I am not suggesting this will be immediate, but it will start as a selling point and everybody else will be obliged to follow suit or lose out.

I agree with the earlier comments that there will be some heartache along the way. Some dwellings will certainly have difficulty with the practicalities involved, but those that make the effort will be rewarded.

Regards
Paul

Any comments on the Qld pumped hydro plan?

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk announces $62b clean energy plan including '''world'''s largest pumped hydro energy storage''' - ABC News

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Originally Posted by NeilS

Any comments on the Qld pumped hydro plan?

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk announces $62b clean energy plan including '''world'''s largest pumped hydro energy storage''' - ABC News

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Where are her safety glasses, it seems every time I see a polly with a safety vest then they have to have safety specs as well. A bad look for pollys Madam Premier.

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Originally Posted by Chris Parks

... A bad look for pollys Madam Premier. ...

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Impossible!

But safety debate reminds me of another issue. Why do sky divers were safety helmets? If the parachute fails to open, how do they know that they will land on their head?

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Originally Posted by Bushmiller

I can see a time when all new buildings require solar on the roof and EV charging outlets irrespective of whether they are stand alone houses or appartments.
Paul

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that time is now for the solar panels, I'm pretty sure most new builds to meet basix requirements pretty much mandate solar panels, or most people go solar panels as its one of the most affordable solutions

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Originally Posted by havabeer69

that time is now for the solar panels, I'm pretty sure most new builds to meet basix requirements pretty much mandate solar panels, or most people go solar panels as its one of the most affordable solutions

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Unless the requirements have recently changed there is no such requirement.
Meeting Basix is about building energy efficient homes and using energy efficient products. Solar electric systems are about offsetting the cost of using those items. To my knowledge the only solar device that reduces your basix score is solar hot water systems which are heating water not producing electricity

Such an interesting discussion. Thought provoking on many levels.

Makes me wonder why, for new houses, there isn't a simple integrated one-step solution.

A combo solar-panel, battery, aircon system. All standardised.

The battery could sit anywhere in the circuit, even atop or below the compressor unit.

I know I've discussed it before, but it feels STRANGE that these systems are all so... separate. It strikes me as reasonable that they should all connect with a fat cable with a common end, that anyone can just buy and ... plug in.


Even devices like the fridge. Why does it not have a fat battery pack in the bottom, to charge during cheap electrical hours, to use during expensive ones. So interesting.

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Originally Posted by woodPixel

... Even devices like the fridge. Why does it not have a fat battery pack in the bottom, to charge during cheap electrical hours, to use during expensive ones. So interesting.

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Great point.

There are tens of thousands of fridges and freezers in boats, caravans and campervans that are connected to a battery. They use 240 volt when available, and the battery at other times. The batteries are almost always relatively cheap lead acid type - you do not need expensive Li-Ion batteries. Recharging may be from any combination of boat or vehicles engine, solar, wind or mains power.

It should be relatively easy to do something similar with a domestic fridge.

Price is most likely the barrier. 230v appliances are much cheaper that 12v equivalents but I suppose that would change if they became more popular
If electricity prices continue to get out of hand all these alternatives will start to look more attractive

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Originally Posted by NeilS

Any comments on the Qld pumped hydro plan?

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk announces $62b clean energy plan including '''world'''s largest pumped hydro energy storage''' - ABC News

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Neil

It would be good to see a little more detail on the two proposed locations and to hear the output in "MW" terms rather than numbers of households. It is good that a state government is finally recognising the need for storage, but what is going to be done in the meantime as they will not be operational until the 2030s: Actually, if it proceeds at the same pace as Snowy 2 it could be the 2040s!

I heard a term for the prospects of existing coal fired stations and it was reffered to as "economic viability." It is important that viability remains in place until renewables can reliably supplant them or life as we know it will take a dramatic turn for the worse. Note I am not advocating longer lives of the fossil fired stations, but more focus on finding the alternatives: Something that is talked about ad nauseum, but is a trifle short on realistic solution.

Regards
Paul

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Originally Posted by woodPixel

Such an interesting discussion. Thought provoking on many levels.

Makes me wonder why, for new houses, there isn't a simple integrated one-step solution.

A combo solar-panel, battery, aircon system. All standardised.

The battery could sit anywhere in the circuit, even atop or below the compressor unit.

I know I've discussed it before, but it feels STRANGE that these systems are all so... separate. It strikes me as reasonable that they should all connect with a fat cable with a common end, that anyone can just buy and ... plug in.


Even devices like the fridge. Why does it not have a fat battery pack in the bottom, to charge during cheap electrical hours, to use during expensive ones. So interesting.

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Evan, the significant problem with all in one systems as you suggest is that when a component failure happens then nothing works. I think this is one reason why central ducted AC systems are not as popular as they once were, the failure of any major component kills the whole system where if a room AC fails the others in the house still operate as normal. I have both and if I was building today I wouldn't have a central ducted system for a bet. The same goes for CANBUS auto house controls which are all the rage amongst the hipsters these days, the idea is great until there is a central control failure then nothing works and I speak with experience on this unfortunately.

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Originally Posted by woodPixel

Even devices like the fridge. Why does it not have a fat battery pack in the bottom, to charge during cheap electrical hours, to use during expensive ones. So interesting.

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Along similar lines, I have a 40 ltr Engel fridge in the back of the ute with a bank of AGM batteries and solar panels mounted on the roof racks.

The fridge is always on. The alternator charges the batteries and runs the fridge when driving and the two solar panels on the roof racks do the same when the sun is shining. When we go shopping we can put all the cold items straight into the fridge and we do not have to hurry home to unpack them from the car even on the hottest days. Sometimes we even leave it till the next day. When we buy items that are bought hot and consumed cold (mainly drinks), we cool them in the car fridge and put them into the house fridge when cold, saving a little bit of energy.

We go camping once or twice a year for about a week's duration. We add another larger solar panel into the array and can run the Engel as a freezer for the week just on the solar panels. Over the years I would estimate we have recovered the cost of the fridge, batteries, solar panels and battery management system just in the price difference between buying drinks for road trips from the supermarkets instead of road houses, not to mention the convenience of having what you want when you want it.

Here is a side effect not often considered....

Exclusive: Europe braces for mobile network blackouts | Reuters

I'm not even LOOKING for articles any more... they are mainstream.

Here is a headline from today: Farmers are getting renewable Standalone Power Systems as Western Australia'''s regional power grid is dismantled - ABC News


Seems this might be rolling out significantly faster than we suspect.

Form Energy Raises $450 Million In Latest Funding Round - CleanTechnica

The cynical part of me says big business gets involved when big profits are involved which (can) mean big rip-offs...

On a similar vein did anyone see the article on "super profits" from network distribution companies... Energy networks garnered $10bn in ‘supernormal’ profits from consumers in eastern Australia | Energy | The Guardian

This was discussed a bit a few pages back, but I thought people might be interested in the progress made.

New system retrofits diesel engines to run on 90% hydrogen

It doesn't solve, as some posters speculate, the Hydrogen storage + transport issue (I suppose it might be a thing, but I don't know much about it).

A decent read. Maybe an opportunity in the future to upgrade the multitude of diesel industrial motors to dual/alt fuels?....

For some time I have wondered about Lithium supply and whether there would be enough for the seemingly never ending and upwards demand for lithium batteries which, as we know, power everything from hand held torches through to automobiles and running your house batteries charged from rooftop solar.

This I found to be quite interesting as it gives what seems to be a balanced viewpoint of things; dated April 12 this year.

How lithium mining is fueling the EV revolution | McKinsey

Mick.

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Originally Posted by woodPixel

This was discussed a bit a few pages back, but I thought people might be interested in the progress made.

New system retrofits diesel engines to run on 90% hydrogen

It doesn't solve, as some posters speculate, the Hydrogen storage + transport issue (I suppose it might be a thing, but I don't know much about it).

A decent read. Maybe an opportunity in the future to upgrade the multitude of diesel industrial motors to dual/alt fuels?....

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WP

Looks interesting and I note that it is tolerant of low purity H2 so that would presumeably reduce cost. It could be a very worth while transition option providing it is economically viable.

Regards
Paul

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Originally Posted by Optimark

For some time I have wondered about Lithium supply and whether there would be enough for the seemingly never ending and upwards demand for lithium batteries which, as we know, power everything from hand held torches through to automobiles and running your house batteries charged from rooftop solar.

This I found to be quite interesting as it gives what seems to be a balanced viewpoint of things; dated April 12 this year.

How lithium mining is fueling the EV revolution | McKinsey

Mick.

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Mick

The sustainability of Lithium is an interesting question. My guess is that ultimately we will run out of supply and coupled to some limitations of Lithium batteries (heat tolerance for example) it too will be a transition material that will suit the planet's purpose for some time.

Regards
Paul

These are a couple of documents that cam across my desk when I returned to work the other day.

Queensland SuperGrid Infrastructure Blueprint (epw.qld.gov.au)

This one I found encouraging in that it is some sort of projected plan recognising action has to happen. It is quite lengthy but if you don't wish to view at length, I would draw your attention to page 4. (It isn't numbered for some reason, but does fall between pages 3 & 5, which are numbered :rolleyes: )


About the plan | Department of Energy and Public Works (epw.qld.gov.au)

I haven't read this one myself yet as we were too busy yesterday. Do let me know what it says as I am always sceptical about how defunct industries will see people re-trained in new disciplines (Holden/Ford shutdowns would be an example). However, I can be a litttle complacent as at this early stage of my working life I don't see it impacting me a lot. That in itself is, of course, a mantra I hear from older people: "It won't worry me." They apparently have no regard for the welfare of their children and grandchildren!

Regards
Paul

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Originally Posted by Bushmiller

... The sustainability of Lithium is an interesting question. My guess is that ultimately we will run out of supply and ...

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That is an engineer's answer, Paul, rather than that of an economist. I have had a similar debate over many years with respect to the oil supply. [Note; oil supply, not environmental issues] Let me explain.

Forty years ago there were various predictions that the world would run out of oil "in 20 years time". Demonstrably that has not happened, but the price has risen erratically. An economist would write a simple equation:

S ∝ P

Supply is a function of or is proportional to price. As the price of oil rose, previously uneconomic fields became viable and the recoverable supply rose. Also more exploration happened, and synthetic substitutes (eg ethanol) became commercially viable. All increased supply.

I strongly suspect that with lithium economic supply will follow prices. Or another type of battery will supplant Li-Ion.

Its not that long ago when Ni-Cad and NiMH were the bees knees.

This is interesting
Scientists have cost-effectively harvested lithium from seawater | Electrek

There is no shortage of Lithium. None.

There are three mines I've invested in now (somewhat indirectly as one cannot invest IN the mine!) but their ability to supply is just about endless¹.

In the case of one, in the USA, it literally is distilled out of the hyper concentrated salt pulled from the ground. Its so EXCELLENT!

I suspect dead batteries will soon be fed back into the furnaces. Collection is pretty easy. But I was reading about batteries, and the amount of Lithium (as a carbonate) in each is rather insubstantial (0.3 gram x amp hour capacity). A few cents in each, that's it (~50 cents a gram, today)

Yesterday, I was reading up on Lithium and Rubidium (FAR more interesting) and the costs of Li are going berko, but its China paying silly prices due to systemic market collapses there. Ru is a VERY interesting metal.



¹ Too late to invest now. China has attempted to corner the market since January and a hideous crash is sure to implode them. The same as what happened to Nickel. Kaboom!

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Originally Posted by BobL

This is interesting
Scientists have cost-effectively harvested lithium from seawater | Electrek

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This is an ABSOLUTE GAME CHANGER if real.

Im going to read more on this.

My mind is boggled. Not only that - it changes EVERYTHING I can think of.

wow wow wow.

This seems to be gaining some traction Grassroots plan to 'electrify' northern Wollongong suburb promoted as Australian-first - ABC News

Yes, I saw that interview with Dr Saul Griffith on the ABC 7:30 Report two nights ago.

My summary: He argues for the benefits and long term return from government support for household electrification (including cars) and he is not the least bit enthusiastic about a near term focus on hydrogen.

The interviewer didn't raise with him the potential benefits of hydrogen as a means of storage to support this increased use of green electricity, as has been discussed here.

The change to sustainable energy has two main problems, cheap network recyclable batteries and solving all the problems surrounding Hydrogen which in the end is dependent on cheap batteries or so it would seem at this point in the changeover. The world we live in depends on electricity and that needs to be solved before we can move on. The way it is happening now is a dead end just like fossil fuels are.

I'm not a fan of Hydrogen either.
This article pretty sums up my thoughts on this topic
Hydrogen Hype in the Air - Clean Energy Group

Claims that Hydrogen is a Zero Emissions Fuel is basically BS because at a minimum it still produces large amounts of NOx.
Depending on how it's burned and what else is already in the air it also still produces large amounts of particulate matter.
NOx itself is also particulate matter and ozone precursor.

This is well know but usually ignored, just like diesel was pushed initially (especially in the EU) because it produced lower CO2, but it too makes more NOx and more particulates.

Most forms of combustive energy production will have these sorts of problems.

Simple answer is, where you can, "stop burning stuff"

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Originally Posted by BobL

I'm not a fan of Hydrogen either.
This article pretty sums up my thoughts on this topic
Hydrogen Hype in the Air - Clean Energy Group

Claims that Hydrogen is a Zero Emissions Fuel is basically BS because at a minimum it still produces large amounts of NOx.
Depending on how it's burned and what else is already in the air it also still produces large amounts of particulate matter.
NOx itself is also particulate matter and ozone precursor.

This is well know but usually ignored, just like diesel was pushed initially (especially in the EU) because it produced lower CO2, but it too makes more NOx and more particulates.

Most forms of combustive energy production will have these sorts of problems.

Simple answer is, where you can, "stop burning stuff"

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Thanks for that Bob

The problem is that there is no easy solution. The H2 issue has two directions and both only work, in varying degrees, provided they are produced using "green" energy. The fuel cell option seems the better of the two and may well be suitable for heavier vehicular transportation. The conversion of gas turbines to H2 as their fuel source, as you have pointed out, is not without issues and certainly does more than produce water.

Power stations produce particulate matter (flyash) but have baghouses to capture the majority of those emissions. That could be adapted to capture particulate matter from gas turbines where thay have an HRSG taked on the back to utilise waste heat. In the case of a straight through gas turbine the heat of the exhaust would be far too great and melt the baghouse in seconds! Modern thermal fired boilers have burners adapted to reduce Nox. In fact our boilers have "low Nox burners," so I imagine (but don't know) that development would mitigate that aspect for burning H2.

The burning (:rolleyes:) question becomes is the H2 overall better than the existing gases?

Regards
Paul

One problem with any process that produces some pollutants is scale.

If one process produces only 10% of the pollutants of another process - when 10x more of the second process is used/required we're back at square one.
That points to a fundamental problem "Too many bloody people" ?? :)

When Australia had about 5 million people, one family in 10 owned a vehicle, and the main electricity use was for lightning and the odd appliance, CO2 wasn't that big a deal. Now its about 5x more population, 2.5 vehicles per family and a similar amount of energy use daily to run a zillion home appliances and . . . . . . . .