Future of the Australian Electricity Market

[Bushmiller]

Just continuing with the state of the market following the election I saw this today

"Incoming Energy Minister Chris Bowen blamed “nine years of Liberal denial and cost” for rising costs.
“There are international factors at play here … but the lack of energy policy, the lack of investment in new energy, the lack of investment in renewable energy, and the lack of transmission over the last nine years means that Australians are paying more for electricity than they should be.”
Mr Bowen said the introduction of more renewable energy under the Albanese government would put downward pressure on prices.
Greens leader Adam Bandt said Labor needed to rethink its pledge not to fast-track the closure of coal-fired power.
“That’s a problem because it’s pushing up power prices,” he said "

Full article here

I don't think that quite depicts the situation although there are elements of truth woven in there somewhere. By all means fast track the closure of coal-fired power providing you have the ability to provide a replacement. Bandt and Bowen are incorrect when they say the non-closure of stations and the lack of more renewable energy are pushing up power prices.

My own take is that several factors have come into play. One that is not much talked about is the effect the wet weather is having on coal-fired stations. Open-cut mines are particularly susceptible to rain events and stations without significant stock piles as a back up reserve will be struggling to keep up supply as the mining eqipment cannot get into the pits. On occasions during heavy rain events the coal cannot travel up the conveyoys into the silos as it slips back down the belts. That is not normally a long term issue, but can be accute for short periods. Unusually long and protracted cloud cover has had an adverse effect on solar generation in recent times and I suspect that gas prices have risen because more money can be recovered through exports. There is a good chance that hydro generation has been better placed of late, but that has not beeen sufficient to entirely compensate.

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

I am gald that I am not a minister of energy trying to conjure a coherent policy in such a difficult environment. Essentially there are three sources of electricity:

Dirty fossil fuels - black coal, brown coal and gas.

Reliable green energy - aka hydro - but supply is limitted by existing dams and difficulties in building more.

Intermittent green energy - aka wind and solar - and it will remain that way until there is significant gains in battery technology or other ways to store energy that is cost effective.

[FenceFurniture]

Greens leader Adam Bandt said Labor needed to rethink its pledge not to fast-track the closure of coal-fired power.

I actually hope they don't pick up the 76th seat because minority Govt means greater scrutiny, and they have done it very successfully before with this PM when he was Leader of the House (who is the chief negotiator with other parties). It also means they will be pushed into higher reduction targets, and probably a much bigger re-think of electricity production.

One thing that occurs to me is that as the PM is an excellent strategist, and they could well have gone to this election with smaller targets so as not to spook an already spooked electorate, knowing that there was every chance they could be a minority Govt and would therefore have to agree to higher targets (very willingly, I might add).
Greens + Teals: "We want bigger emissions reduction targets and a complete rethink of the Electricity Industry".
Govt: "OK, no wuckas."

That gives them a neat political out for those who want to moan and deny. "They forced us into it, we had no choice but to comply." (However, I think the deniers are a rapidly shrinking minority these days, and are likely to be somewhat voiceless in the coming years as the weather and climate become self-evidently worse.)

It has to be said that it would be a delicious piece of finessing from the new Govt, if it were the case.

[woodPixel]

That gives them a neat political out for those who want to moan and deny. "They forced us into it, we had no choice but to comply."

It has to be said that it would be a delicious piece of finessing from the new Govt, if it were the case.

A little bird told me this was exactly their strategy.

If they meet their target earlier, or exceed it massively, or get it done by next year.... ooops. (err, yay!).

I feel hopeful for the new government.

FF, I agree on the minority aspect. Everyone that has discussed it with me seems to have the same thoughts. Majority governments don't produce the best result for all.

[Bushmiller]

While it looks likely Labour will achieve their lower house majority, they won't enjoy the same status in the Senate so their actual majority will become academic. Poor legislation won't make it through.

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

Here is one uniquely Australian benefit to solar generation

Solar farm trial shows improved fleece on merino sheep grazed under panels - ABC News

"It is actually quite astonishing. Some of the sheep look fantastic. They're growing exponentially and the wool cuts are in the top 5 per cent in the district."

Mr Warren said the carrying capacity of the land had also increased by about 25 per cent.

During the drought, water condensed on the solar panels in the mornings. The trickling of the water to the grass below keep strips of pasture green.

3764bf798f1859170a1ea4d96f206c08.jpg

[ajw]

My provider contacted me today and advised me to switch to somebody else. From what I can gather, they are unprotected from wholesale pricing changes that are flowing through, and their rates will need to increase significantly shortly. They recently raised their rates 27%, but it's clear they are unsustainable. I can only assume that they are losing money on every kWh they are selling. Why else tell people to move to another provider? Bizarre. I've switched to a bigger retailer on fixed pricing for 12 months.

This entire system is so frustrating. The energymadeeasy government website said there were over 700 offers I could look at. That's insane. Nobody has time to do that kind of analysis, and the country doesn't need that level of "choice". All of that cost in retailing and marketing what is an essential commodity.

ajw

[woodPixel]

AJW, this may answer your question....

Energy retailer tells more than 70,000 customers to go elsewhere or face doubling of prices | Energy | The Guardian

[Log Dog]

Well after being quoted $6000+ to install a builders pole (with 1 x single phase/+ 1 x 3 phase socket only)
I am going to purchase a container home and go off grid
I live in an area where sunshine is king
Not many rainy days in Chillagoe lol
I have gas for cooking...this services my needs adequately
Also have a decent generator at the ready
Solar will probably suit and serve me well
That said I am not a big consumer of electricity at the best of times...I am quite conservative in that respect
Log Dog

[Bushmiller]

Well after being quoted $6000+ to install a builders pole (with 1 x single phase/+ 1 x 3 phase socket only)
I am going to purchase a container home and go off grid
I live in an area where sunshine is king
Not many rainy days in Chillagoe lol
I have gas for cooking...this services my needs adequately
Also have a decent generator at the ready
Solar will probably suit and serve me well
That said I am not a big consumer of electricity at the best of times...I am quite conservative in that respect
Log Dog

Log Dog

If serious, look at tiny houses too, which can be one and the same thing, but not always. My sister has just put two tiny houses on her block. Our ex postmaster used to be a ranger at Chillagoe and it was on his recommendation that we visited the caves: Amazing. I guess you know to watch out for the salties.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

I had wondered when the subject of gas in the home was going to rear it's ugly head and it looks as though people are waking up. The issue occured to me in the last year as we have been looking at a new kitchen to replace our state of the art 1940s kitchen, which SWMBO maintains is really a Claytons kitchen. She is equally dismayed that the kitchen has not yet happened.

Anyhow we were looking at a new gas stove, which I reluctantly pointed out will contribute to carbon emissions and one day will probably be obsolete or banned or both. So we have had to reconsider. gas has always been so much better to for cooking: Not really cheaper mind, but more controllable. No commercial kitchen used anything but gas and commercial stoves were of course gas, but it looks as though will have to revisit this issue. perhaps the induction tops will replicate the controllability of gas. Either way, I was promopted to mention this because of this article:

Not cooking with gas: Councils want to ban gas connections in new developments (msn.com)

For the moment we will continue with the stove we have which has gas for the plates and electricity for the oven: A new stove looks as though it will be electric.

Regards
Paul

[Log Dog]

Log Dog

If serious, look at tiny houses too, which can be one and the same thing, but not always. My sister has just put two tiny houses on her block. Our ex postmaster used to be a ranger at Chillagoe and it was on his recommendation that we visited the caves: Amazing. I guess you know to watch out for the salties.

Regards
Paul

Actually Paul there are a couple of resident freshwater crocs in Chillagoe Creek...only a few streets away from where I live.
Yes the caves are amazing
The geological formations in the area are quite fascinating
National parks essentially surround the town
Log Dog

[GraemeCook]

... The issue occured to me in the last year as we have been looking at a new kitchen to replace our state of the art 1940s kitchen, which SWMBO maintains is really a Claytons kitchen. ...

We went through that debate for almost 20 years, before we totally rebuilt the kitchen about 10 years ago. In retrospect, I got most things right. Subsequently, I went back to uni and did a fine arts degree majoring in design, which largely confirms my analysis.

It might be worth starting a dedicated thread - Paul's New Kitchen - rather than hijacking this one. With kitchen design, the devil is in the detail.

Cooktops do not use much gas so bottled gas is fine; we later converted to town gas and put in a gas heater - this was a mistake as the price of gas gas more than doubled. A small percentage of commercial kitchens now use induction - this is the only alternative to gas.

[woodPixel]

I'm currently on a "variable" plan with Origin.

The variable plan allows them to change the price once during the term of the contract (12 months). It also allows me to switch to another plan, or leave, without penalty.

What are peoples thoughts as to the REALITY of consumer prices going up? I've seen the recent posts above (of course!) and the futures pricing of energy.... word seems to be that prices are going to be going up, quickly.

Are others here locking in their consumer (home) usage?



The rates on the left are fixed rate, the right is my current variable plan.

gas elect 2022 06 02.JPG

[havabeer69]

its funny when you look at gas in NSW.

its just so happens the origin energy... who want to shut down 2800MW of coal power in lake Macquarie... are also a major gas supplier.

I wonder if taking a bunch of electricity out of the grid and driving prices up may make people look at gas as an alternative, and where would they get the gas from.... Origin