beuro of meteorology

[Rossluck]

BoM radar is not showing the present situation. It is refleced 'sound' and about 30 minutes behind.

soth

Are you sure about that? I've often slipped outside when the radar was showing rain about to touch our area, and felt the first few drops. I've found them to be pretty accurate and we do rely on them (we have two options here, Stapylton and Marburg) to warn us about storms.

I agree with Carl to an extent, but mainly I agree with Silent. It is a strange thing here in Brisbane that the people at the BOM are strong and assertive with their predictions. Perhaps they should deliver their predictions with more of a scientific tone: "Our stats and computer models suggest a 78% chance of rain tomorrow", rather than the strong: "rain in the morning, sometimes heavy, reducing to showers by the afternoon". Because when you have blue sky all day after forecasts like the latter one, you can't help but feel as Carl does.

[masoth]

Yes, I'm sure the radar is a reflection of rain that has fallen .lightening strike, etc., - your experience of feeling some precipitation may not register on the radar, and may only show as a trace, or as nil rainfall.
Also, the information supplied to radio/TV broardcasters, mostly from a private company, is edited to satisfy time constraints, etc. ABC radio, here in Victoria, cross live to the BoM and talk for a few minutes - the respondent is rarely as positive as the unqualified 'readers' who deliver what we hear, and is described as "the forecast"

soth.

ps: for educational purposes, if interested, see:
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/?u=7746

[44Ronin]

I'm sorry but it's been flooding up your side of australia for WEEKS - now it is flooding in north coast NSW. That should give you an indication as to the weather.

[joe greiner]

The past is prologue; no more, no less. If you think the forecasts are worthless, try ignoring them for a while, and rely on your own PERFECT clairvoyance. I predict a 50% chance you won't even see this.

Cheers,
Joe

[damian]

Couple of things.

Meteorology came about for mariners. It grew to include land weather forcasts and what appears on the news is a reaction to public wanting a forcast. The important work gets done for mariners and aircraft, because it REALLY matters for them.

Meteorologists are trained to a basic level by the BOM, in canberra. If you look at the papers they advertise about twice a year. You have to move to canberra to some period to do the course. Then the wages suck. As you get better at it your moved to the aircraft/sea analysis, and if you get noticed you get poached to one of the private firms that pay a lot better.

If you really want to do your own predictions buy a barometer and learn how to use it. They are by far and away the most important tool for local weather forcasting. I ran the medium pressure lab at the national measurement laboratory for about 3 years. It was then my interest in meteorology really got going, and it was amazing how much you can tell from a barometric chart or a handy barometer about what will happen in the next 24 hours etc...

The 6:00 news is a joke from start to finish, and the weather report is no exception.

[silentC]

Meteorology came about for mariners. It grew to include land weather forcasts ...

Hmmm, not disputing the importance of shipping, but, although it's only Wikipedia, there seems little in this to support that claim.

[damian]

Your right, I forgot about the early agricultural uses. I was thinking of the formal systematic collection of data and short term predictions that arose in europe and britain in particular. Before that it was a bit hotch potch. The admiralty did a lot of work that we benifit from today, standard time and latitude/longitude are well known, but they sponsored a lot of important work.

The wiki article doesn't really discuss the ancient work done by the egyptians and others, but I suppose there are reasons for that. When does haphazard observation become meteorology ? Hm.

[silentC]

I suppose it's no different to the majority of sciences that have sprung up over the centuries and become formalised in the last couple of centuries. They all had to start somewhere and the roots would probably be unrecognisable by today's standards.

But I guess your point was that the serious meteorological science is not necessarily reserved for the TV weather segment. I imagine serious astrologers would make the same point about the weekly horoscope

[damian]

serious astrologers ? You mean there are some that take themselves seriously ?

[RETIRED]

Sometimes I think they are one and the same.

[AlexS]

Damian & SilentC are both spot on regarding the history pf meteorology. Interestingly, about 30 years ago one of the European Met or scientific agencies created daily synoptic charts for most of the northern hemisphere for about the last 200 years, based on ships logs and terrestrial observations.

If you'd like to learn a bit more about meteorology, subjects 8004R & 8004S in this course are a good start. The teacher's a bit of a !@#$% though.

[Arthur Dyason]

Damian

your right about the TV weather being a joke.

I worked at the European Centre for Midrange Weather Forcastes for 14 years as part of the team running the super computers doing the calculations. I will scan some of the pictues when we get full power back on. Being in the Bellingen area we have just had the worst flood in living memory and are only on genset power.

After a long night shift you would be watching the morning news and weather forcast and asking if they had actually looked out the window.

The largest clients of the centre was the US and european Navy's with air services close behind.

The Navy interest these days is in wave predictions which is caused and also helps change the weather.

[AlexS]

Being in the Bellingen area we have just had the worst flood in living memory and are only on genset power.

Back when I first started working in this field, Dorrigo was always quoted as having the most intense 24 hr rainfall recorded in Australia (1955, I think). Every so often, somewhere else, usually in Nth Qld, would take the record, but somewhere in the Dorrigo area would always get it back.

[DJ’s Timber]

The teacher's a bit of a !@#$% though.

He wouldn't be a Dehydrated Hydrographer by chance would he

[AlexS]

He wouldn't be a Dehydrated Hydrographer by chance would he