Recession - Where Is It?

Hi,

I just returned from the barbers which I feel is a place one can get a feel on certain things going on in the economy and alike. Given the people who were talking there and that of friends and family no one seems to be affected directly by this so called recession. The barber said he hasn't be affected by any "downturn" neither had any of the tradespeople in his shop:?. None of the 30 business in the immediate area have reported having problems either - so is this just government propaganda again, or the work of the media?

No I'm no hermit, I live in the real world and read the papers (watch TV) like nearly everyone else. No I don't live in a affluent neighbourhood aka Toorak Camberwell etc either so where are all these people struggling? I see people living on the streets, druggies getting their rocks just as they have for decades. Maybe it is the same people (who took us as fools) that told us in the late 90's that the World was doomed with the forthcoming YK2.

Are we being conned or taken for a ride?

MH

Metal Head,

I have studied Economics and Economic History and put simply the financial world is a wonderful house of cards built on credit and confidence.
to over simplify explanation of a complex issue, What has happened is that confidence has collapsed and so credit is tighter. Money remains but people keep it to themselves, as do banks and countries. The effects of a recession/ depression vary with areas and countries. If you lived in a community that relied on mining for example as do many in West Oz or had a job in the financial world of Wall Street then this recession would be very real, many have been put out of work or are on short hours. Seems that at present the area you inhabit is shielded. I have a friend who is an architect in Melbourne and he tells me he has had no inquiries about new work for over a month. He is living on present contracts and is worried.

What this and other governments are doing is to try to keep money on the move. The Great Depression of the 1930's haunts history and governments don't want such a collapse again. The Great Depression had a hand in bringing Hitler to power.

Let's hope things stay rosy for you and your area.

Jerry

Would like to agree with the habitues of your barber, but, as a self funded retiree,completely dependant on my investments, I have lost over THIRTY PERCENT of their value in about eight months.:((
I console myself with the knowledge that, given enough time,things will get better, and will probably get back to where they were before the ???? fell out of everything.:)
My pension is generated from dividends earned from my investments, and, unless you have had your head buried deeply in the sand, you must be aware that company profits and therefore dividends, have copped a belting.I'm bloody worried!!!:oo:
Krudd's "generousity" means exactly Sweet Fanny Adams to me.
I have been prudent,saved,paid off everything. and even insulated my house.I no longer earn an income, so even the tax relief is worthless to me, and to thousands like me.
I paid taxes for over 40 years,educated myself and did pretty well, but, at 66 years, I am not eligible for a Government pension because I have too many assets.:((:((:((!!
I do not understand why or how this situation has developed, but it seems to me that the blame lies fairly and squarely at the feet of the Yanks.
It's fairly true that the Yanks have sneezed, and the rest of us poor bastards have caught a cold!! :(:(

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Originally Posted by Metal Head

Hi,

I just returned from the barbers which I feel is a place one can get a feel on certain things going on in the economy and alike. Given the people who were talking there and that of friends and family no one seems to be affected directly by this so called recession. The barber said he hasn't be affected by any "downturn" neither had any of the tradespeople in his shop:?. None of the 30 business in the immediate area have reported having problems either - so is this just government propaganda again, or the work of the media?

No I'm no hermit, I live in the real world and read the papers (watch TV) like nearly everyone else. No I don't live in a affluent neighbourhood aka Toorak Camberwell etc either so where are all these people struggling? I see people living on the streets, druggies getting their rocks just as they have for decades. Maybe it is the same people (who took us as fools) that told us in the late 90's that the World was doomed with the forthcoming YK2.

Are we being conned or taken for a ride?

MH

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I'm with you, I've been in recession my whole life and cannot see the difference eccept for bosses trying to pay employers less

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Originally Posted by Lignin

Would like to agree with the habitues of your barber, but, as a self funded retiree,completely dependant on my investments, I have lost over THIRTY PERCENT of their value in about eight months.:((
I console myself with the knowledge that, given enough time,things will get better, and will probably get back to where they were before the ???? fell out of everything.:)
My pension is generated from dividends earned from my investments, and, unless you have had your head buried deeply in the sand, you must be aware that company profits and therefore dividends, have copped a belting.I'm bloody worried!!!:oo:
Krudd's "generousity" means exactly Sweet Fanny Adams to me.
I have been prudent,saved,paid off everything. and even insulated my house.I no longer earn an income, so even the tax relief is worthless to me, and to thousands like me.
I paid taxes for over 40 years,educated myself and did pretty well, but, at 66 years, I am not eligible for a Government pension because I have too many assets.:((:((:((!!
I do not understand why or how this situation has developed, but it seems to me that the blame lies fairly and squarely at the feet of the Yanks.
It's fairly true that the Yanks have sneezed, and the rest of us poor bastards have caught a cold!! :(:(

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I think all of us who are approaching or in retirement share your sentiment ( and loss!)
It makes me more than a little angry that we have all done what the Govt asked a decade or so ago and moved to self fund our retirement and most of us have done that in a responsible and beneficial manner only to have a large part of it removed in a way that is beyond our control.

I get even angrier with all the experts coming out of the wood work who have "seen it coming". If they saw it ( whatever IT is) coming then why didnt the highly paid professionals in Govts see it and PREVENT it happening??

The only thing that I have seen is the failure of the secondary mortgage market in the US that can be considered a tangible thing that has happened. Why that should cause all the doom and gloom is beyond me.

I believe that the doom and gloom merchants including our very "professional" media have been very irresponsible. I believe that KRudd and W Swann have been naieve and have not got a clue how to manage this situation and have done nothing but add to the perceptions. Simply handing out money that is going to be stuffed down the throats of pokies is not how to generate sustained economic stability and growth.

Thank god Mr Howard and Mr Costello managed to repay the old labour debts and put a great deal of money in the "bank" ...The shame of it is that Mr Rudds inexperienced financial incompetence has now overdrawn the bank account in a little over 12 months !!

The way to overcome this self fulfilling prophecy is to stop all the doom and gloom talk and get people talking positively again. It is quite amzing ( and historiclly proven) that we all believe what we are told by the media and politicians..god help us..

A lot more of us need to get angry and tell them we dont believe and ask for proof and details..there has been a lot of talk but not a lot of fact :rolleyes::NZ3:

Technically a ressesion is one Quarter of negative growth, a depression is more than one quarter.
It is happening CES are getting notices every day about companies putting off workers, everyday there is more and more companies going under.
Less people employed = less people spending = less people employed.

Here is a situation that partisan politics do not work, everyone in every party should be looking for a way of immunising Australia from the golbal crisis, not point scoring or laboured rhetoric.

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The Great Depression had a hand in bringing Hitler to power.

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No, the War Repatriations that Germany had been paying since 1918 had a lot more to do with it.
He promised a way out from under the crippling debts and the people bought it.

My sister and hubby own a mobile phone shop and have a few corporate contracts, one of which is with a forklift company that supplies forklifts to a mining company. The mining slow down has resulted in the forklift company now having 1500 forlifts no longer required by the mine. Obviously with flow on affects in mobile phones etc.

I'm doing my best to keep tool shops afloat.:rolleyes:

Ben.

i think we have been talked into a recesion.

if the media didnt mention it then people would keep spendign as normal and business would not see a reduction in sales and life would go on as usual.

if more things were made in australia tehn there woul dbe a lot more industry and it would give jobs to a lot more people.

even now if teh government put a restriction on what could be imported quantity mainly thewn there would be a lot of jobs first in buildign up the diferent industries then working in them.

i would not mind paying a little more for quality australian goods than teh cheep chineese crap we get at present.

Cruzi,

I was oversimplifying an explanation on recession. The remark on Hitler was shallow because I wasn't intending to do more than show how governments fear unrest. I said it had a hand in the rise, not that it was the prime cause.I am well aware of the problems of Germany during the Weimar Republic, what generated those problems and it's ramifications that allowed the rise of Nazi Germany. However a short answer in a forum usually precludes deep analytical answers.


As to the rest of your argument, I would not fault it.

Jerry

Sorry JerryC, my fault, I forget that we do need to condense from time to time.

Having said that it's Carl's turn now :doh:

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even now if teh government put a restriction on what could be imported quantity mainly thewn there would be a lot of jobs first in buildign up the diferent industries then working in them.

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This is a double edged sword, if we restrict imports, the countries we restrict then restrict our exports.
The biggest importers into our country also happen to be our biggest customers, (China, India, Japan, USA), any jobs gained from restricting imports would quickly be offset by jobs lost from exporting industries.

Being talked into recession is not the problem, people spend when they feel secure in their jobs, with so many companies going under (SWMBO informs me they got notices for over 5,000 job losses so far this week), people are unsure about their future, less borrowing, less spending, less jobs, less confidence.

Ben hinted at what happens when a company goes under, the retailers in town get less money, the suppliers get less money, the service industries get less money, people borrow less, everyone has to downsize staff and the cycle continues.

.

I live in The Hunter, an area heavily dependent on mining.
Today I had reason to travel fairly extensively throughout the area principally populated by those who work in the mines, and, until recently, pretty affluent.
I was startled to see so many late model twin cabs and big 4WDs on the side of the roads with "For Sale" signs on them.The last time I can remember this happenning was during Mr Keating's "Recession We Had to Have"!
We're hurting up here, and it's going to get worse before it gets better.
To those of you who think it is a conspiracy by the bosses to diddle the "workers", wake up to yourselves.It's bloody-well happening, and you'll probably feel it soon enough.:((:((:((

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Originally Posted by Metal Head

Are we being conned or taken for a ride?

MH

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Whathe? :? You're not serious.

:no: First industry to notice is advertising when clients cut back on budgets, it started back in March of last year, a while before media started reporting it. It's real.

It is pretty real in the SE of South Aust.too.I'm lucky I work in the oil and gas industry.It is relatively stable but having said that I know of some service companies that are laying off staff.Nine months ago everybody was looking for staff but couldn't get any because of the mining boom.Different now.

The top 200 companies in the world have lost 74% of their value, thats not a recession?

I wondered when party politics would rear it's head.
Lignin and Perkz, I too am a self funded retiree and like you I am hurting. Therefore I paid attention to Turnbull and his opposition statement.

Know what? Not a word about self funded retirees.
Mr Howard and Mr Costello were able to repay the debts because they were fortunate to be in power during a boom period. Copious company tax and advantageous foreign trading makes it easy to be successful when things are going your way.

If you examine the present world financial situation it will be obvious that "handing out money" is not confined to the Austalian Labor Party. Nor is the concept of going into debt. The USA, home of '"free enterprise" has been in debt for many years. Ben Bernanke is busy printing money to the extent that some economists wonder how it will be balanced and what it will do to the value of the dollar in future.
As to handouts feeding the pokies, that is a rather insulting comment to level at the majority of recipients of help.. Just think what the American financial bosses did with the handouts given to them. They sacked staff, whilst still paying the top echelon huge salaries and bonuses. That of course is different. The financial sector has been one big poker machine for several years.

As we discovered, what appeared to be a scam in the American housing market blew up into a world wide disaster. Credit and debt drive finance and is more complex than is possible to explain here. Basically what happened was credit was too easy and many companies borrowed too much. Banks get nervous and call in debt and the house of cards crumbles.

So to fall back on the old easy political arguments and blame a particular party might make you feel better but it is not the full answer.

Jerry

Jerry,
I did not bring politics into the argument!! I stated two facts:
1; The spending package offered by this government does not benifit me in any way (Nor,I suspect, you):doh:
2, The last time I can remember seeing so many expensive cars for sale on the side of the road was during the "Recession We Had To Have".They were Keatings words, not mine.:~
It just happens that each time, the Labor party has been in power.Had Howard and his mob won the last election, he'd be carrying the can now, and there is no guarantee that he'd be in less of a mess than Krudd and Swine.:?
My Daddy told me never to discuss Politics, Religion or Sex, so no wonder I'm repressed.:(:(

Keep it on topic. This is not a slanging match about whether or not which political party did what to whom and when.

Lignin,

Apologies for mis reading you.

As to that statement "the recession we had to have" it was like so many of Keatings statements. Keating was a rare example of a politician who not only sincerely believed in what he did but spoke TO the public and not DOWN to them. He was keenly aware that, as is common in finance, there are periods of "correction": It was a wry comment that the media, ever hungry to pander to the lowest common denominator was ready to seize on..

Remember this was the period when Keating was "Arrogant" but Kennett was a "Strong Man".

Cynical? Me?

Jerry

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Technically a ressesion is one Quarter of negative growth, a depression is more than one quarter.

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I think you'll find that technically a recession is TWO consecutive quarters of negative growth. This makes it straight forward to tell whether we're in a recession or not - just look at the GDP for the last three quarters.

There is no technical definition of an economic depression. It is just a deeper recession and is more a reflection of the affects on the population than an economic measure. Let's hope we don't go there.

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Originally Posted by Metal Head

Maybe it is the same people (who took us as fools) that told us in the late 90's that the World was doomed with the forthcoming YK2.

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Don't underestimate the Y2K issue. Yes there were nutcases who spoke about planes falling out of the sky. But if all those companies hadn't spent all that money getting all those people to rewrite all that programming code you would have seen some nasty situations (think about how eftpos works, or atms, or traffic regulation systems, etc, etc). The fact that there were so few problems just shows the preventative measures were successful.

Now, think about the Y10K problem - much more difficult to solve!

Cheers,
Adam

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think about how eftpos works

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It just so happens that I was an EFTPOS programmer for one of the big four at the time. Many of the dates used in the system were stored as dd/mm/yy. It was common practice to do something like this:

If yy > 40 then
yyyy = 19yy
else
yyyy = 20yy

The reasoning being that we will all be long gone before that time bomb explodes. Hopefully all those systems will have been replaced long before 2040. :)

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Originally Posted by Chumley

Don't underestimate the Y2K issue. Yes there were nutcases who spoke about planes falling out of the sky. But if all those companies hadn't spent all that money getting all those people to rewrite all that programming code you would have seen some nasty situations (think about how eftpos works, or atms, or traffic regulation systems, etc, etc). The fact that there were so few problems just shows the preventative measures were successful.

Now, think about the Y10K problem - much more difficult to solve!

Cheers,
Adam

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So why didn't Macs fall over? No one came into the agency I worked at and rewrote things. Maybe it was someone against PCs? Me thinks it was a load of carp.

Greed is the cause
here in Australia we have life style we can not support so we have to play in the open market with the world population moving more and more into middle class the effect has to pop its head up more and more .


Or was it all created to take the focus of G/W:U
maybe if we stop spending so much we might just find a balance between life style and the environment

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So why didn't Macs fall over? No one came into the agency I worked at and rewrote things. Maybe it was someone against PCs? Me thinks it was a load of carp.

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We had to upgrade the BIOS on many of our older PCs because they did not handle the year 2000. Some of them could not be upgraded and had to be decommissioned. Lots of our software, including in-house and third party developed had to be upgraded to handle a four digit year. Believe me a lot of work had to be done to make sure ATMs didn't shutdown or start spitting out cash all over the footpath on 1st Jan 2000. The fact that nobody noticed means the job was done well, not that there was never a problem.

Ex Y2K officer for On-line Services Group, 1999.

:)

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Originally Posted by Waldo

So why didn't Macs fall over? No one came into the agency I worked at and rewrote things. Maybe it was someone against PCs? Me thinks it was a load of carp.

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Sorry Waldo

Mac had their dates organised from day 1 as dd/mm/yyyy or the Yankee mm/dd/yyyy.


Just to add to the other comments,

I'm also a self funded retiree who was taught by his fairly strict European parents that if you don't have the money then you don't buy it. This of course excluded only 2 items which were a house and a car. These had to be funded by loans which needed 20% deposits in those days - both loans were paid off in short times by making extra interest payments as they became due. So, after doing all of the right things, saving, making frugal expenditures, paying all of the due taxes etc we are now penalised for doing so. If we had blown the lot etc then my previous paid taxes would at least be coming back to me in part.

Not happy Jan, John, Kevin, Peter, Wayne. Malcolm as well as Tom, Dick and Harry. :no:

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Originally Posted by Bob38S

Mac had their dates organised from day 1 as dd/mm/yyyy or the Yankee mm/dd/yyyy.

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Fair enough, still think it was a load, to a point. Like terrorism, it only makes the security blokes a packet because Chicken Little cried, "The sky is falling"

Your point of only borrowing what you need and saving to buy the rest is very pertinent. Just bought a newish car myself - I paid in cash, that way I know it's mine and I don't owe anyone. Except for bills and a house, I owe no one any money.

The world needs to look towards Japan, okay they're in recession, but, they don't use credit cards and prefer the old bank book. It's about how you live in a capitalist society and best manage your money. :2tsup:

Just to take us away from computers and back to the core of this discussion. The problem that has generated this recession/ depression, call it what you will, is that banks in most countries were totally deregulated. Thus we reached the absurd situtation that a single dollar when lent did not represent a dollar debt. Debt was sold on and eventurally that one dollar generated thirty dollars debt. Banks are now being forced to reign in that over debt and so credit disappears. Companies work on forward estimates of profit and borrow against it. People were doing the same. It was not uncommon for individuals to buy a property, calculate forward profit and buy another property on credit on the presumption that it would be financed out ot the as yet to be realised profit on the first property. Still with me? It's what happens in a time of unrealistic greed. Alice is in Wonderland .
Debt, properly managed, does have a place in finance. How else would houses and cars be sold? Japan has been in recession now for ten years because there is another factor to consider. If you put your money under the mattress you have effectively removed that money from circulation and from use. Less money circulating equals less things being bought and sold and result stagnation. It's why governments are trying desperatly to force money into circulation at the moment by injecting it into the economy.

Jerry

But, to give credit to Costello and the banks in Australia we have what is called APRA, wherein which the financial institutions are regulated as to what they can do, and they were directed to keep away from sub-prime lending practices when it was recognised early on by Costello what the ramifications of this could lead to.

This has lead to Australia having 4 of 11 banks in the world with a AA rating. Whatsherface was very proud to announce this the other day, but neglected to give credit where due for the setting up of APRA.

But forcing money by artifical means into the economy isn't keeping us or anyone else going into or coming out of recession, a case very plainly argued on Lateline Business last night by Robert Schiller, and for which reason I'm against Dudd's $48M stimulus.

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/

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Originally Posted by jerryc

Debt, properly managed, does have a place in finance. How else would houses and cars be sold?
Jerry

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Personally I think the debate about whether we are in a recession or depression is intellectual wanking and not really relevant to us. What is relevant is the reality that we are in deep trouble, and if nothing is done to help and stimulate the economy then it will become worse.

Every day we hear about more financial difficulties caused by this lack of confidence and business laying of people. If you lost your job and have no hope of getting another than it is totally irrelevant if its a recession or depression. You already know we've got trouble.

The pity is that the media and politicians won't loose their jobs, for if they were at risk they might get of their high horses and try to fix it.:((

Part of the problem is the reluctance as a country to have debt. This is also ridiculous and has penalised our current generation who have had to pay for capital works that will also benefit generations of people to come. Capital works, being infrastructure will benefit many generation so should in part be paid by them.


Peter.

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The problem that has generated this recession/ depression, call it what you will

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It's neither because we are not into negative growth yet. The economy is still growing (1.6% last quarter I believe). It is an economic downturn. If we return negative growth this quarter and the next, then we will be in recession.

But as Peter says, it's just intellectual wanking by economists and politicians because it makes no difference to normal people whether it's technically a recession or not if you have lost your job.

Waldo,

One of the problems of Economics is that it is not an exact science, however much Economist try to say it is. I couldn't raise Schiller's arguement and haven't heard it so cannot comment. However I wil quote Prof Boris Shedvin at his introductory lecture on Economic History at Melbourne.
In essence he said Economists think they are rational beings and their theories are rational. What they do no take into consideration is that people are not rational. A theory may work at one time and not at another, but if it doesn't work, Economists say it's the theory that hasn't worked so we must create a new one.

America decided to follow Milton Friedman the so called Reganomics (which I believe had to be explained to Ronnie with a comic strip) and discard completely government control which was part of Keynsian Economics.

Odd thing is now the "Free Market" has broken down, the American banks and car manufacturers want government assistance. Isn't that government intervention?

The first principal behind cash injections and the fact that they are aimed at the lower socio economic group is that such people have low discretionary spending control. You need new shoes because you only have one pair. A rich man has a wardrobe full. It's the same thinking in funding public works. Infrastructure eventually aids the economy in the short term by creating jobs and in the long term by having a useful assetthat can be used in the future.I would expect dissenters from the idea of "stimulation packages" it is the nature of Economics, , but one Economist does not a solution make. As with any sickness, a second opinion is a safe bet. It would be interesting to hear a discussion between Schiller and Ben Benanke. "Helicopter" Ben who is printing money like it's going out of style is an expert on the Great Depression. He might perhaps differ in his viewpoint from that of Schiller.

Jerry

Deleted..Apologies to Lignin if I caused any offence, none was intended...
Sorry Lignin...

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Originally Posted by Sturdee

What is relevant is the reality that we are in deep trouble, and if nothing is done to help and stimulate the economy then it will become worse.

Peter.

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Yes I agree but how is stimulating retail going to create wealth....All it will do it send 50% of the money to China.. If you want to stimulate the economy be smart about it....This schools upgrade idea is stupid, every school getting the same amount....So a school with 10 kids gets the same as a school with 1000 kids...A school that has just had a $2 million upgrade gets the same as a school that has not seen a coat of paint in 30 years.It is just jobs for the boys so the construction industry can still charge their $120 an hour to install a power point...



A big splurge on new houses...Will these houses be built where there is enough water and infrastructure to sustain them, or are they going to be built in Sydney or Melbourne or Brisbane where there is no water to spare...

Will immigration be cut due to the lack of available jobs???

I bet 90% of families are better off right now due to lower interest rates and fuel then they were twelve months ago...They are simply not spending because the government says things are bad..

And I am sick of people parroting the IMF.. Yes of course the IMF are big on stimulation packages because the governments will borrow money from the IMF to fund them..Win win for the IMF who then makes billion's of dollars in interest payments.

And the poor miners with their flash expensive cars for sale.....If they had have saved a lot of that huge wage they had they would not be in the situation they are currently in...

The only way to create wealth is to invest in nation building projects, all we are seeing is a splurge in industries that create very little export earnings...

RC,
There is supposed to be a rule about slagging each other off on this forum, but I'm about to break it!!

You have NO BLOODY IDEA what my investment portfolio is.
For your pea brained information, the majority of it is in the so called Blue Chip companies that provide employment for literally thousands of Australians, The fact that at least one company, BHP Billiton, has reduced its profit forecast by 50% is hardly the fault of we high risk taking investors.
I repeat, I have paid taxes ALL MY WORKING LIFE(40 YEARS) BUT, I'm getting bugger all out of this government or any other, simply BECAUSE I was a bit careful.
To have someone suggest that I'm a risk taker ,and therefore deserve what befalls me, makes me bloody irate.
You DO NOT HAVE ANY IDEA WHAT YOU"RE TALKING ABOUT!!!
Do you have the balls to apologise???

Note to : Please leave this up.I know it sails close to the wind, but I'm furious, and I'm prepared to bet quite a few others are too.

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Originally Posted by .RC.

You were the one who was greedy and put the money into high risk areas, so don't blame me for your loss...You could have put the investment money into a high interest bearing account and you would still have their full value today...

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That's about the most ignorant thing I've read on these forums, and I've been around here for a while!

The astute investor know the rule about eggs and baskets...balanced portfolio's and all that. Greed need play no part.

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Originally Posted by Lignin

RC,

Do you have the balls to apologise???

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I have edited my original post..But I still believe shares are a inherent higher risk for income then a plain jane term deposit...Just be proud of the fact you have never received any welfare from the government..

RC,

It's difficult to answer some of your statements because they are just a little "eccentric" If you sole intent was to be provocative then I congrratulate you. If you intended to be taken seriously then I am more than surprised.
The stimulation package is not directed at retail sales alone. A point both Sturdee and I have highlighted is that infrastructure spending will have beneficial effects. Perhaps you missed that comment. Spending on education is not, as you seem to think jobs for the building boys. ANY investment on education or education infrastructure is an investment in this country's future.

Low cost public housing is in short supply and a need exists to shelter those who might otherwise be subject to artificially high rents in time of shortage.

Trade is not something that should be protected by barriers. Trade is an international flow.That thinking of isolationism exacerbated the Great Depression. We had a boom because we sold to China. China paid top dollar of resources because it in turn could sell to America. So we have a vested interest in exporting what other countries are willing to buy from us. This stupidity about the flood of cheap Chinese goods misses the point. We sell to China, China's standard of living hopefully rises and that creates a bigger market for what we may have to offer.

The concept that 90% of families are better off is pure cloud cuckoo land. there are many out there who have lost jobs and many on short hours. Those families with jobs have reined in spending because of the knowledge it could be them next. A reasonable fear I would suggest and nothing to do with the government.

And you are sick of people parrotting the IMF. I'm no fan of the IMF, but to bring them into this discussion leaves me baffled. Could you please explain, with relevance to the present crisis, your point?


Jerry

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Originally Posted by jerryc

RC,

It's difficult to answer some of your statements because they are just a little "eccentric" If you sole intent was to be provocative then I congrratulate you

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It was not intended to be provactive, I have apologised for using the word greedy in my original post if it was found to be offensive, it was not intended to be as most of us, myself included are greedy for more money to get a greater standard of living for ourselves and our family...My industry is currently experiencing low prices for the goods I produce, I am not going to complain as it is part of being self employed and I accept that..

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The stimulation package is not directed at retail sales alone.

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No but the $12 billion in handouts are.

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A point both Sturdee and I have highlighted is that infrastructure spending will have beneficial effects. Perhaps you missed that comment. Spending on education is not, as you seem to think jobs for the building boys. ANY investment on education or education infrastructure is an investment in this country's future.

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I am not dismissing that but where is the money for more teachers then??? All this is is cash for buildings to keep the construction workers in jobs..

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Low cost public housing is in short supply and a need exists to shelter those who might otherwise be subject to artificially high rents in time of shortage.

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but why build these houses in areas where they are not sustainable...

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Trade is not something that should be protected by barriers. Trade is an international flow.That thinking of isolationism exacerbated the Great Depression

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I have not advocated tariffs as such however we must do something to make it fair trade not free trade....Industries in China and elsewhere can pollute as much as they like, workplace safety standards are non existant, wages are incredibly low and we are expected to compete with that. Our current high lifestyle is based upon the exploitation of overseas workers...And the amusing thing is a lot of Australians were outraged when the previous government bought in legislation (workchoices) that was thought to allow exploitation..

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The concept that 90% of families are better off is pure cloud cuckoo land. there are many out there who have lost jobs and many on short hours. Those families with jobs have reined in spending because of the knowledge it could be them next. A reasonable fear I would suggest and nothing to do with the government.

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And how will a $950 handout help when they are not spending now??? I still believe most families are better off now then they were twelve months ago...

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And you are sick of people parrotting the IMF. I'm no fan of the IMF, but to bring them into this discussion leaves me baffled. Could you please explain, with relevance to the present crisis, your point?

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Kevin Rudd constantly says how the IMF says huge spending is the way out of the crisis...The IMF has a vested interest in lending countries money, that is how they make their money through interest in these loans....It was debt that got us into this mess and the current government line of thinking is it is debt that is going to get us out of it...


Jerry[/quote]

RC,
Apology accepted.Thank you.

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Originally Posted by Lignin

I do not understand why or how this situation has developed, but it seems to me that the blame lies fairly and squarely at the feet of the Yanks.

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Seems to me you should blame yourself a bit more. You wanted a fat bloody profit just like everyone else, and I mean everyone. If the Australian market was as large as the Dow the entire world would have invested in it instead. There's a major correction and depression in the market about every seventy years. Know why? Because everyone that can remember the last one and is cautious has died. The next generation doesn't want to think it could happen again and the stupid ignore the evidence.

Humans are to blame. Not exclusively American Humans or only greedy humans. I don't play pokeys unless I'm super drunk, and I don't ever invest in stocks. I'm more likely to buy a shovel than a share.

I also don't blame citizens of other countries because I got my ass caught in the wringer. As was said by another poster, if you weren't willing to accept the full risk of investment, you should have kept the money in savings. A steadily compounded 3% over the life of your savings would look a lot better than a 30% loss right now. I don't think anyone has come out on top.

Be mad at the market sure. Curse your own lack of foresight for not burying jars of gold coins in the backyard instead of investing. But don't all over another country. Especially when conditions created by your fantastic profits for the last five years contributed to it. Millions of 'Yanks' are out of jobs and homes. My parents have suffered the same losses as yours. My Dad's gone back to work, he was to have retired this year. He figures he'll never stop now. My Mom has Parkinson's, how much of that filthy yankee money you figure she'll need towards the end and not have now?

You sound like a spoiled child that broke his toy. Blame yourself.