CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

Have just been reading about the disruptive effects of the CoranaVirus in China. Over 2,000 diagnosed deaths, and the government is almost closing down the economy to fight the epidemic. All factories within 200 kms of Wuhan have been closed, many factories outside that area have chosen to close, public transport severely restricted, people who went back to the village for New Year cannot return to work, exports essentially banned, .... The list is long.

With JIT (Just In Time) warehousing practices being the norm, what will be the effect on Western retailers? Will we be greeted by emptying shelves when we walk into Bunnings, Mitre10, Carbatec, Myer, Harvey Norman, K-Mart, Repco, etc? They all source most of their stock from China and the supply line has stopped.

Graeme

Most goods come via bluewater freight - 3 - 4 weeks. So therewould have been goods in transit. I suspect we may start to see some shortages in some areas over the next few weeks. I see recent reports that shipyards throughout China have been impacted, so its not just manufacturing.

I suspect that retailers will be scrambling to find alternate sources of supply - Thailand, Phillipines, Cambodia, Bangladesh have opportunity to fill gaps. It may not be as noticeable in the chain stores as they can substitute products. However if your looking for specific items then I think it may become noticeable over the next month or two.

My parents have already been affected. Tried to have a replacement air conditioner ordered for their caravan and no go. No indication of when it'll be available either.

Our solar PV installer said they aleady don't have supplies of some panels and he he only can get supplies of others for another couple of weeks worth of installs. Then he can take a much needed holiday and then he's in trouble. But tourism is already badly affected. OTOH more cruise ships are now headed to WA so that will help a bit.

Yellow Octopus expects supply problems in a couple of months.
One furniture retailer is looking to Vietnam.

Unfortunately Australia does not have the manufacturing industry it once had.

I think it shows where the problem is with globalisation.

A company I order Jewellery tools for school cannot fill my full order at this time saying that stuff is not being shipped or is stuck in customs due to the virus.

Globalisation has been with us for thousands of years with specific international trade relationships going back 5000 plus years.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...hraean_Sea.svg

Thomas the Apostle was sent to India at the death of Jesus to minster and convert a Jewish community in Goa India 2000 years ago. The Jewish community existed as part of a global trade arrangements between India, China and the Middle East with arrangements with Southern European merchants AKA globalisation. The apocryphal accounts of Thomas and his relationship to Jesus has an even more amazing account of why he ended up in India.

Look at all the Jewish, Chinese & Indian diaspora's around the world communities that go back thousands of years again because globalisation. They are all products of the evolution of globalisation over time.

In the Prophetic Sayings of the Prophet of Islam (Muhammad) Peace be upon him says "Seek knowledge even as far as China". Muhammad was a skilled trader from a powerful trading family from Mecca, he travelled to Jerusalem and Damascus, and would have had direct contact with traders bringing goods out of China. This is why vast areas of China have Muslims who travelled for trade and knowledge to China over 1200 years ago, This is why Indonesia is a Muslim majority country with Christian and Hindus communities again all because of globalisation.

My own blood comes from Globalisation. In 1652 the Dutch East India Company established a settlements at the Cape of Good Hope (South Africa). Some of my ancestors were early Dutch traders to the Cape. Then I have English ancestors from London (Southbanks) and German ancestors who came to South African in the 18th/19th century. Other parts of my ancestors came from Dutch Malacca controlled by the Dutch East India Company between 1641 to 1824 (Modern Malaysia) settling in the Cape and in time became the Cape Malay Muslim community. Then their is my Bantu ancestors who are part of greatest migration in history spanning 4,000 to 3,000 years ago starting in West/Central Africa (the area of modern-day Cameroon). All of this is just from my mothers side that I have been able to reconstruct. All of these people moved willing or otherwise due to globalisation. In appearance I am a Cape Coloured a product of globalisation. I like to think that a person like me haunts Donald Trumps nightmares.

On my father Swiss German side our family name is rooted in international military campaigns (Reisläufer). Were the Swiss would sell their skills as mercenaries to the different European powers (starting in the Late Middle Ages) all in the quest for profit, power and money all over the world. There is a memorial in Central Africa dedicated to war crimes committed by Swiss mercenaries. I laugh when people stereotype Swiss as neutral chocolate eating clock makers. We are a violent people and our hands are soaked in blood thanks to globalisation. I would not have it any other way.

Look at the history of Australia, at no point in its history was Australia ever self sufficient. Going back thousands of years Aborigines traded with Indonesians, who then told European merchants (who were trading, buying & selling thanks to globalisation in South East Asia) of a Southern Land that eventually lead to Captain Cook. That made Australia dependent on UK and Europe and today globalisation means we are closer to Asia, and yes we need them and guess what they need us.

People who wish to end globalisation would regret it if they ever had to live a single minute in an de-globalised world. Look around you, open your eyes to everything that surrounds you everything exists because of globalisation. There are always winners and losers and the anti-globalisation rabble are just whingeing because do not like the fact that their mob is currently loosing in the game of globalisation. Without globalisation they would be sitting on a mud floor and not even being able to cover their shame with a rag.

Apologies Graeme...
BUT the Aussie wit or black humour has also struct on this awful issue...

Attachment 469010 Attachment 469011

I agree, it's a bit too easy to blame "globalisation" , including by many that willing take advantage of it.
Perhaps the underlying cause is "greed"? or another way to look at it is, "looking for a good deal" or "a way to cut costs".

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Originally Posted by PJM16

I think it shows where the problem is with globalisation.

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I thought the problem was the reverse of globalisation - China-isation, if you will - or the absense of diversity in the source of supply. Rarely a good idea to put all your eggs in one basket!

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Originally Posted by GraemeCook

I thought the problem was the reverse of globalisation - China-isation, if you will - or the absense of diversity in the source of supply. Rarely a good idea to put all your eggs in one basket!

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I agree about the eggs in one basket.

Globalisation is sourcing out to the cheapest producer/supplier of eg clothing, energy, construction, food, services, IT, motor vehicles, movies, music, financial services, health, electronics, mining etc. The fact that for many of these it turns out to be China is the way is just how its worked out.

There's "cost" and then there's "quality", (or at least perceived quality) eg they definitely want our milk powder, education experience, and crayfish

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Originally Posted by Handyjack

Unfortunately Australia does not have the manufacturing industry it once had.

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Because we have a small population, relatively isolated from the rest of the world (and ourselves, given the distances between population centres), with a high cost of living and high wages.

Mass production and low-value production in this country are gone and they're not coming back. It's time we all come to peace with that.

Reuter’s reported just now that major Chinese shipping companies are starting shipping later next week or early the week after so you shouldn’t have to wait for your widgets much longer :)

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Originally Posted by elanjacobs

Because we have a small population, relatively isolated from the rest of the world (and ourselves, given the distances between population centres), with a high cost of living and high wages.

Mass production and low-value production in this country are gone and they're not coming back. It's time we all come to peace with that.

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I don't think we ever had low value production in a broad spectrum. Protective tariffs of 40% were quite common when I left the lab in the early 70s. Products and industries with low physical volume and labour content and particularly those with unique technology survived. Ross Garnaut is quite right in saying that we CAN regain our competitive edge if we harness cheap power in all its forms. To do so, we'll need it nationalised which the neo-conservative will never allow.

mick

Power could be free and we still won't be competitive when production workers here are earning in a few hours what their Asian counterparts make in a week.

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Originally Posted by elanjacobs

Power could be free and we still won't be competitive when production workers here are earning in a few hours what their Asian counterparts make in a week.

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It's not as simple as that, Elan. It's about the ratio between the labour input and the value of goods produced.

BTW, I apologise for straying off topic. I don't recall the same degree of disruption during the SARS epidemic. I received a blade guard from Banggood yesterday which took about three weeks to arrive.

mick

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Originally Posted by elanjacobs

Power could be free and we still won't be competitive when production workers here are earning in a few hours what their Asian counterparts make in a week.

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Interesting to see that many Chinese production workers are deemed too expensive (more like don't make the manufacturers enough profit) so they are no being outsourced to places like Vietnam and Bangladesh.

SARS looks to be small time compared to this one.

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Originally Posted by thumbsucker

A company I order Jewellery tools for school cannot fill my full order at this time saying that stuff is not being shipped or is stuck in customs due to the virus.

Globalisation has been with us for thousands of years with specific international trade relationships going back 5000 plus years.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...hraean_Sea.svg

Thomas the Apostle was sent to India at the death of Jesus to minster and convert a Jewish community in Goa India 2000 years ago. The Jewish community existed as part of a global trade arrangements between India, China and the Middle East with arrangements with Southern European merchants AKA globalisation. The apocryphal accounts of Thomas and his relationship to Jesus has an even more amazing account of why he ended up in India.

Look at all the Jewish, Chinese & Indian diaspora's around the world communities that go back thousands of years again because globalisation. They are all products of the evolution of globalisation over time.

In the Prophetic Sayings of the Prophet of Islam (Muhammad) Peace be upon him says "Seek knowledge even as far as China". Muhammad was a skilled trader from a powerful trading family from Mecca, he travelled to Jerusalem and Damascus, and would have had direct contact with traders bringing goods out of China. This is why vast areas of China have Muslims who travelled for trade and knowledge to China over 1200 years ago, This is why Indonesia is a Muslim majority country with Christian and Hindus communities again all because of globalisation.

My own blood comes from Globalisation. In 1652 the Dutch East India Company established a settlements at the Cape of Good Hope (South Africa). Some of my ancestors were early Dutch traders to the Cape. Then I have English ancestors from London (Southbanks) and German ancestors who came to South African in the 18th/19th century. Other parts of my ancestors came from Dutch Malacca controlled by the Dutch East India Company between 1641 to 1824 (Modern Malaysia) settling in the Cape and in time became the Cape Malay Muslim community. Then their is my Bantu ancestors who are part of greatest migration in history spanning 4,000 to 3,000 years ago starting in West/Central Africa (the area of modern-day Cameroon). All of this is just from my mothers side that I have been able to reconstruct. All of these people moved willing or otherwise due to globalisation. In appearance I am a Cape Coloured a product of globalisation. I like to think that a person like me haunts Donald Trumps nightmares.

On my father Swiss German side our family name is rooted in international military campaigns (Reisläufer). Were the Swiss would sell their skills as mercenaries to the different European powers (starting in the Late Middle Ages) all in the quest for profit, power and money all over the world. There is a memorial in Central Africa dedicated to war crimes committed by Swiss mercenaries. I laugh when people stereotype Swiss as neutral chocolate eating clock makers. We are a violent people and our hands are soaked in blood thanks to globalisation. I would not have it any other way.

Look at the history of Australia, at no point in its history was Australia ever self sufficient. Going back thousands of years Aborigines traded with Indonesians, who then told European merchants (who were trading, buying & selling thanks to globalisation in South East Asia) of a Southern Land that eventually lead to Captain Cook. That made Australia dependent on UK and Europe and today globalisation means we are closer to Asia, and yes we need them and guess what they need us.

People who wish to end globalisation would regret it if they ever had to live a single minute in an de-globalised world. Look around you, open your eyes to everything that surrounds you everything exists because of globalisation. There are always winners and losers and the anti-globalisation rabble are just whingeing because do not like the fact that their mob is currently loosing in the game of globalisation. Without globalisation they would be sitting on a mud floor and not even being able to cover their shame with a rag.

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Zero nuance strawman argument reducing the issue to a binary proposition containing context-free and rather irrelevant ethno-cultural trivia, finalised with a rather inane ad-hominem.

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Originally Posted by BobL

Interesting to see that many Chinese production workers are deemed too expensive (more like don't make the manufacturers enough profit) so they are no being outsourced to places like Vietnam and Bangladesh.

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That's what happens when the supply vs demand effects labour inputs particularly for skilled "middle income earners", wages rise, the standard of living improves, new consumer markets emerge and global corporates look for new "low cost" manufacturing opportunities.

This also occurs in the "services sector" as we have very recently seen with the demise of Holden with an Australian based very skilled workforce of designers, technical specialists, robotics & automotive engineers etc - no longer required. Then there is the ceasing of production in Thailand, the knock on effect to suppliers, and the full flow on effect into the wider community of non-automotive related services sectors, retail, groceries etc.

"Globalized" sourcing & manufacturing is wise IF it does not become "centralized" anywhere along the entire supply chain, including customs, quarantine, shipping into and out of all sectors in the chain.

What will happen IF a similar event to SARS or COVID-19 occurs in a centralized facility with Amazon, Bangood etc???

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Originally Posted by Mobyturns

What will happen IF a similar event to SARS or COVID-19 occurs in a centralized facility with Amazon, Bangood etc???

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We might have to visit the local hardware shop, lol.

Events like the GFC and COVID-19 remind us all of how vulnerable we are in our turbocharged world. In 1859 there was an enormous solar storm (the Carrington Event) which allowed Morse code signals to be sent along unpowered transmission lines. If the same happened today, we'd lose GPS, radio coms, the power network and goodness know what else. Civilisation would come to a standstill, possibly for months or years.

Hopefully COVID-19 won't be catastrophic.

mick

Spare a thought for the families of and those who have died and are dying from this terrible virus, rather than complaining about our shelves being potentially empty.

just a minor observation ...

around 30 years ago, I sat through a series of lectures by a labour economist.
The gist of their position was that eventually all labour that could be shifted to a low wage country would be so shifted. Services like hair dressing, household cleaning, electricians, plumbers, etc would retain their pricing power because you can't send to Singapore when you need an electrician or a plumber or your hair cut, but you can relocate to Thailand for your dental and elective surgery.

Ultimately Australia will be left with only highly skilled labour and the unskilled moveable jobs will vanish or be recompensed at below the poverty level.
a very depressing thought.

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Originally Posted by Wongdai

Spare a thought for the families of and those who have died and are dying from this terrible virus, rather than complaining about our shelves being potentially empty.

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I can spare a thought -- but, realistically, coronavirus is not a "terrible disease", it's not even a "serious" one.

Influenza kills 12,000 to 60,000 people annually -- from 140,000 to 810,000 annual hospitalisations annually
The CDC's latest bulletin for the US is here Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report | CDC -- the flu death rate is 6.8%

For comparison, the death rate for the coronavirus is only 4.9% within Wuhan -- and 2.1% across China as a whole.

In May 2003, The World Health Organization (WHO) estimated the overall fatality rate for SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) patients at 14% to 15%. The agency estimated the rate for people older than 64 years to be more than 50%

So while not a small number, coronavirus is, to date, killing people at a rate that is only a fraction of the effect of SARS.

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Originally Posted by BobL

Reuter’s reported just now that major Chinese shipping companies are starting shipping later next week or early the week after so you shouldn’t have to wait for your widgets much longer :)

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Hope they are correct Bob as we won't survive a supply side shock.

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Originally Posted by ian

I can spare a thought -- but, realistically, coronavirus is not a "terrible disease", it's not even a "serious" one.

Influenza kills 12,000 to 60,000 people annually -- from 140,000 to 810,000 annual hospitalisations annually
The CDC's latest bulletin for the US is here Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report | CDC -- the flu death rate is 6.8%

For comparison, the death rate for the coronavirus is only 4.9% within Wuhan -- and 2.1% across China as a whole.

In May 2003, The World Health Organization (WHO) estimated the overall fatality rate for SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) patients at 14% to 15%. The agency estimated the rate for people older than 64 years to be more than 50%

So while not a small number, coronavirus is, to date, killing people at a rate that is only a fraction of the effect of SARS.

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I understand the problem with Coronavirus is that it's not only highly infectious but like all viruses. it may mutate into something far worse.

Last year my G.P. offered me a pneumonia shot in addition to my flu shot. Sure, why not? I said without thinking. Walking home I started thinking that I might prefer influenza in the form of the old person's friend sometime in the next twenty years. Maybe I should've refused.

mick

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Originally Posted by Glider

Last year my G.P. offered me a pneumonia shot in addition to my flu shot. Sure, why not? I said without thinking. Walking home I started thinking that I might prefer influenza in the form of the old person's friend sometime in the next twenty years. Maybe I should've refused.

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Mick
at 71 your life expectancy is roughly 19 years.
You could drop dead tomorrow, you could live to 105.

The question really is at what point in your life do you want to welcome in the "old person's friend"?

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Originally Posted by elanjacobs

Power could be free and we still won't be competitive when production workers here are earning in a few hours what their Asian counterparts make in a week.

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I am currently in Vietnam and went out to dinner last night with my wife
We had 2 beers, 2 wines, entrees, mains and dessert and it cost me $29.57 ...... you can’t even buy the drinks in Australia for that
I am told that wages here are around $150.00 a month.
I cant see how Australia will ever compete unless it is being dug out of the ground or it is brought here to get buried

I received this email this morning regarding a tool I’ve ordered from a Chinese supplier,
I thought the wording was a bit off.

“Dear ,


Thank you very much for your order from Banggood.com.

Due to the adjustment of the Spring Festival holiday, some of our logistics company partners are still in holiday, we are already processing all the orders and will ship it out once they resume to work, your order will expect to be shipped within 2 weeks. Thanks for your patiently waiting. We apologize for any inconvenience caused.”

Cheers Matt.

Simplicity - Happy Holidays indeed!

I know two people near Wuhan. They've been in their units for 4 weeks now. They are going up the wall. They were told this morning "April".... :oo:

Next, a guy I talk with infrequently in Shenzhen has 600 people there. Just reopened. Closed Today - sick people again. Four more weeks.

Another dude I chat with is in "shipping" (he seems knowledgeable)... said anything leaving Shenzhen is only 10% full. Containers are piling up like crazy. There is talk of heaving them off the boats into the sea (!!!) or charging people sending crates back to China empty a "handling fee" of $1200.

Treat these as anecdotal and hearsay, for its just talk, but I've no reason to expect these people to BS.


Ian - here is a decent video describing the whole China --> Vietnam manufacturing thing. I've been watching these two dudes for a while.


Overall, you probably all know that I'm a hair-triggered market-collapse doom-enthusiast and I have to admit I've been watching this since the beginning of January with an incredibly increasing rate of alarm.

Ian, yes, the flu is bad, but the numbers we are seeing aren't....true. It is worse. Much worse. Now that its spread out of China - such as to South Korea, we are getting an appreciation of just how bad it is. The numbers from SK and the Diamond Princess are far more reflective of the "reality" Ive been told (by Chinese on Telegram and Reddit)....

I feel... without being alarmist, that this will be Bad.

EDIT: These videos by Dr John Campell are 10000% worth your time to watch.

EDIT 2: This is the shipping info I was pointed to. China's reefer cargo crisis worsens as carriers plan to abandon boxes - The Loadstar

More - and this is the shipping view of 165,000 ships! Look at them piled up at EVERY chinese port! Click on the ships and they are either stationary or just moving in circles for the last week... China's reefer cargo crisis worsens as carriers plan to abandon boxes - The Loadstar

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Originally Posted by woodPixel

Simplicity - Happy Holidays indeed!

I know two people near Wuhan. They've been in their units for 4 weeks now. They are going up the wall. They were told this morning "April".... :oo:

Next, a guy I talk with infrequently in Shenzhen has 600 people there. Just reopened. Closed Today - sick people again. Four more weeks.

Another dude I chat with is in "shipping" (he seems knowledgeable)... said anything leaving Shenzhen is only 10% full. Containers are piling up like crazy. There is talk of heaving them off the boats into the sea (!!!) or charging people sending crates back to China empty a "handling fee" of $1200.

Treat these as anecdotal and hearsay, for its just talk, but I've no reason to expect these people to BS.


Ian - here is a decent video describing the whole China --> Vietnam manufacturing thing. I've been watching these two dudes for a while.


Overall, you probably all know that I'm a hair-triggered market-collapse doom-enthusiast and I have to admit I've been watching this since the beginning of January with an incredibly increasing rate of alarm.

Ian, yes, the flu is bad, but the numbers we are seeing aren't....true. It is worse. Much worse. Now that its spread out of China - such as to South Korea, we are getting an appreciation of just how bad it is. The numbers from SK and the Diamond Princess are far more reflective of the "reality" Ive been told (by Chinese on Telegram and Reddit)....

I feel... without being alarmist, that this will be Bad.

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It’s the saving face thing that gets my goat,
We all know what’s happening
I just don’t get why they keep pretending they can cover it up!!!

Cheers Matt

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Originally Posted by Simplicity

It’s the saving face thing that gets my goat,
We all know what’s happening
I just don’t get why they keep pretending they can cover it up!!!

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This is interesting in itself.

The grunts on the ground know NOTHING.

Here are some of the things I've been told constantly and consistently by various people within China:

-- It is much worse in the USA. People are dying of the flu in vast numbers
-- The USA government is doing "nothing" to help their people
-- The CCP has this all in hand. They are reacting while the world does nothing (nice spin there CCP!)
-- They are being told it is only their region (no matter the region)
-- DON'T go to hospital. They can't help (some truth to that. They are overwhelmed)
-- If you need help, no matter what it is thats needed, one is to ring the police (I dont know the translation for this, but I think its some sort of community support group with some sort of authority. They aren't the police as we know them)
-- Each person, or factory owner (that Ive read of) has NO idea when they can reopen. IF they do, its a massive bureaucratic process, with arbitrary processes and from what Ive read they can be re-closed down at a moments notice.
-- Apparently only factories with "dorm" facilities are allowed to open. (???? Do they sleep at work, like some sort of FIFO thing?)

So, believe your seller. They've no idea and only doing what they can. From what I've seen its a complete sheit-show and the wheels have completely fallen off.

The downchain ramifications of these things is almost endless.

eeek!

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Originally Posted by woodPixel

-- Apparently only factories with "dorm" facilities are allowed to open. (???? Do they sleep at work, like some sort of FIFO thing?)

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doom and gloom specialist ???

and yes, from what I understand lots of Chinese workers sleep in the factory dorm. They then travel back to their home village once or twice each year.

If half of what's been posted here is true, I might have to go bush and start reading the Green Woodworking section.

mick :)

Beyond Tools In Malaga in Perth's northern suburbs mention machinery availability problems here

Coronavirus disruption hits store shelves as Australian retailers face 'serious pinch' from COVID-19 outbreak - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

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Originally Posted by BobL

Beyond Tools In Malaga in Perth's northern suburbs mention machinery availability problems here

Coronavirus disruption hits store shelves as Australian retailers face 'serious pinch' from COVID-19 outbreak - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

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I didn’t read the whole article !!

But it just shows the stupidity of relying on mainly one country for supply.
All your eggs in one basket.

From a business point of view it’s madness.

Cheers Matt

There’s another way of thinking about it in that maybe if more customers didn’t just always buy the cheapest gizmo/appliance/tool we’d have a greater selection from a wider variety of sources?

Even if this thing is as "bad" as said, on the scale of things, its not too bad.

Many of the people here would remember that smallpox, TB and polio were a real thing in every day life.

The viciousness of these diseases, plus their spreads, were subjectively much much worse. Worse, because all three existed at the same time, treatment was medieval and money scarce.

Keep your tools sharp friends, just in case we get 4 or 8 weeks enforced inside-time. Oh noes!!!!! What will we do!!!!!???? (bowls, pens, boxes, boards, all those honey-dos, that kumiko project... new shelves, fix the leaking taps... oh gods! Nooooooo!!!!!!)


Edit. This was on the ABC news' website. It puts things into perspective.

Attachment 469131

I read your post out to SWMBO and she’s nodding her head.

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Originally Posted by BobL

There’s another way of thinking about it in that maybe if more customers didn’t just always buy the cheapest gizmo/appliance/tool we’d have a greater selection from a wider variety of sources?

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Hit the nail in the head Bob.
People often complain but the reality is business is selling what the consumer wants to buy. We have all seen the demise of companies that have not followed that pattern