Future of the Australian Electricity Market

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Then you should research the NSW Govt ESS scheme for replacing old HWS with Heat Pumps for free - have to pay some installation costs, and not sure how that will work in your area.

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Thanks!

I've just had a quick look and there seems, at least on the face of it, to be no overlap between Sanden dealers and ESS approved (A)CP's in my area (NSW but near Canberra). Unfortunately I'm finding that there are so many people in Canberra who can be easily separated from their money that the tradies don't really want to drive 30 minutes out of the city. Equally, and perhaps because of this, they are very cluey about the government grants in the ACT, but often less so about NSW.

Having said that, I'll phone the dealers that Sanden list for my area (even though at least one lists the suburbs they cover and mine isn't amongst them) because Sanden do say their heaters are now ESS approved.....

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Originally Posted by Warb

Sanden do say their heaters are now ESS approved.....

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Interesting. The two companies I have spoken to only use EcoGenica. Be prepared for whomever you speak to act like they are doing you a giant favour by letting you give them business. Both of them had to be told in no uncertain terms to stop emailing, texting and calling me at peril of not getting the business, and that I will let them know when I am ready.

Warb, this might help:
Find a Dealer – Sanden Hot Water Heat Pumps

On the right there are three dropdowns, and I am currently checking the Rebate Calculator.

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Be prepared for whomever you speak to act like they are doing you a giant favour by letting you give them business.

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This I'm having to get used to! I lived on the same farm for the last 20odd years, and along the way I gathered a group of "old men" tradesmen who I could deal with on sensible and friendly terms, would give me honest opinions and turn up when they promised. Having sold the farm, retired, and moved to this new area, I'm dealing with younger tradesmen who charge like a wounded bull, don't always turn up, often don't have the right parts when they do turn up, and charge a callout fee for each visit - very annoying when the second and third visits are because they didn't bring the parts they should have known they needed the first time! The only thing they can be relied upon to do in a timely manner is to send the invoice........

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Warb, this might help:
Find a Dealer – Sanden Hot Water Heat Pumps

On the right there are three dropdowns, and I am currently checking the Rebate Calculator.

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Sadly it doesn't cover the ESS, only the STC's. I got a "quote" from one of the three dealers listed for my area, and it was a painful process. I called them and was told to use their website to get a quote. Not interested in talking. The quote page doesn't allow for selection of system, it basically just emails a standard quote (from what I can see) for the smallest Sanden tank. They want pictures of the existing system, including serial number etc. before they go any further (presumably to calculate rebates?).

Unfortunately my system is in a 45 degree corner in the basement, the nameplate is hidden, I want a bigger tank than standard, and WiFi, and the heat exchanger outside. So their quote is useless to me. When I looked further I noticed that whilst they say they service my area, no physical address is given. My suspicion is that they are a web-based company in an office somewhere who just find a local plumber wherever the customer happens to be. I could be wrong, but it didn't give me a warm fuzzy feeling!

Sanden list two other dealers in my area. One specifies the suburbs it services, and mine isn't listed. The other seem to have a physical address in Canberra, but their webpage is big on hype and short on detail. I think I may pay them a visit and see if they can help!!

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Originally Posted by Warb

Sadly it doesn't cover the ESS, only the STC's.

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Yes, I noticed that. They may be having some teething problems trying to fit into the clunky NSW system. I have sent an email to one supplier and a text to another, but I may also ring Sanden direct. The ESS scheme is not due to finish until "sometime 2025" so there is no rush (even though the installers pretend there is).

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Originally Posted by Warb

They want pictures of the existing system, including serial number etc. before they go any further (presumably to calculate rebates?).

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They want to be able to see the installation site so they can calculate how much the "heavily subsidised" installation will be, and they want to know what they will be taking away for recycling. They also want to see your circuit board.

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Originally Posted by Warb

I want a bigger tank than standard

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HP HWS can be smaller capacity than what it is replacing. It starts heating up water as soon as you turn the tap on, so that, e.g. a 215 litre tank can give you 300, maybe 400 litres a day if necessary. You have 215 litres before you hit the water that is still being heated, and IIRC they heat about 60 litres per hour. In my case, because I am using Amber Electricity at wholesale prices, I will aim to have showers at around 11am to 2pm when sparks are usually super-cheap. It will also mean that I will not have Controlled Load needs, and will save that daily connection fee.

Perhaps you could consider relocating the HP and Tank somewhere else outside (hot water pipes and circuits permitting).

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

They want to be able to see the installation site so they can calculate how much the "heavily subsidised" installation will be, and they want to know what they will be taking away for recycling. They also want to see your circuit board.


HP HWS can be smaller capacity than what it is replacing. It starts heating up water as soon as you turn the tap on, so that, e.g. a 215 litre tank can give you 300, maybe 400 litres a day if necessary. You have 215 litres before you hit the water that is still being heated, and IIRC they heat about 60 litres per hour. In my case, because I am using Amber Electricity at wholesale prices, I will aim to have showers at around 11am to 2pm when sparks are usually super-cheap. It will also mean that I will not have Controlled Load needs, and will save that daily connection fee.

Perhaps you could consider relocating the HP and Tank somewhere else outside (hot water pipes and circuits permitting).

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There's really no need to relocate the system, the current location is perfect and simply requires the pipework to go through the outside wall that the tank sits against. The issue in this case is simply that the nameplate of the existing system is hidden because it's tight in a corner.

The circuit board requirement is also strange, though not really an issue. Replacing a 5kW (ish) system with a 0.9kW one shouldn't require anything other than a smaller breaker, I would have thought! Equally they wanted to see the meter box. Why? My only thought was to see if the existing system was on a controlled load circuit, and it's not, it simply has a timer which isn't in either the circuit breaker box or the meter box and so wouldn't be covered in either p[icture!

Our existing tank is 400L. I'd like the 315L Sanden tank (from memory) because 200L is too small by their own reckoning, and the "usual" 300L tank is too tall. The 315L is wider but somewhat shorter and would fit the space (assuming all the connections are on the same side!).

My concern was more the way they seem to do business than the details of the system, especially as they also fail to mention the ESS anywhere in their quote, they simply list STC's etc.

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Originally Posted by Warb

The issue in this case is simply that the nameplate of the existing system is hidden because it's tight in a corner.

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Can you see the compliance plate with the aid of a mirror? Take a pic of the reflection, and then reverse it with software?

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Can you see the compliance plate with the aid of a mirror? Take a pic of the reflection, and then reverse it with software?

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I don't think so. The tank is tight in a corner of two brick walls (45 degree angle or so). There's no nameplate on the visible side, and no room to get around (or over) the tank to see the other side. I'd have to use a long inspection camera, and even then it would be tricky because I have no idea where the plate might be!! I'm guessing it won't be visible until the tank comes out, but I also can't see why that should be an issue - why do they need the serial number in advance, especially as they're not even quoting for the ESS replacement scheme.

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Originally Posted by Warb

why do they need the serial number in advance, especially as they're not even quoting for the ESS replacement scheme.

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Maybe they need pre-approval for the STCs? I suspect you may need to talk to Sanden about who can do it under ESS. One of the local (small) operators here has just told me he does them under ESS so the available operators might be a bit more widespread than the website suggests. The previous two I dealt with were both Adelaide based. I'll know more in a day or two.

Funnily enough, there's a new Matt Ferrell vid on Heat Pumps.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npqz...zRFZzw&index=3

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Originally Posted by Warb

It's not really to do with the people in my vicinity, it's because the grid can't deal with it. My previous property was very similar, as were the people in the vicinity, yet I could export without limit. The difference was that I had a large 3phase transformer connected to a "big cable" (and maybe higher voltage, just an assumption) section of the grid (the old irrigation pump had a 60kW motor!). My new property has a baby single phase transformer connected to a baby single phase (2 wire) arm of the grid. And the problems are going to get worse. We are being told to replace our fossil fuelled devices with electric ones. My induction cooktop can draw 11kW, and if I bought a Tesla that would be another 11kW. That's 22kW and my transformer is an old 100amp unit. Now imagine everybody on my grid arm doing the same thing. Yes, it's the people in my vicinity, but we're all trying to do the right thing (or at least what we're being told is the right thing!) and the grid simply can't cope!

!

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yeah, dunno what its going to be like in 20 years.. the poor old power lines above will be glowing red when everyone is trying to cook dinner and fast charge their electric car at the same time.

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Originally Posted by Warb

... I'd have to use a long inspection camera, and even then it would be tricky because I have no idea where the plate might be!! ...

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Or put your phone on a wanker stick, hit the video button, and record all of the back of the cylinder. Then take a still of the compliance plate from the video. If it is not clear, then you will now know where the compliance plate is so you can take a high res photo.

This news article highlights why we need to sort out storage asap (like we didn't know...but)
Rooftop solar '''cannibalising''' power prices as Australian generators pay to stay online - ABC News


I'll serve this over to those in the industry that know better:

• we know we are facing a problem that needs a solution with regard to providing industrial quality power, and any rating of power when it's dark, no wind and so on.
• Referring back to my post about losing ¼ of our FF power in five years, and 43% in ten years (remember the Covid pandemic started just under 4 years ago – time flies),
• and also given that we aren't going to economically solve the storage problem for at least 5 years (maybe longer),
• what would be wrong with building 1 or 2 Gas fired power stations with current technology being cleaner than previous, as long as we can stay within the net zero target?

Wouldn't that be better and more reliable than pouring $12(?) billion into Snowy 2.0? IIRC, GF can be pumping out sparks within 60 minutes of being asleep (as it would be during the day, and NOT having to pay to be awake).

Industry needs certainty for confident investing, and I'm sure that they are not particularly confident of having their power supply demands met in the next decade or so. All well and good for households with rooftop becoming so dominant and relatively cheap, but industry needs a different quality of power.

We can still put out some CO2 as long as we compensate for that output with sequestering, or other reductions. GF power stations would have to be a whole lot less CO2 (et al) than Eraring and co.

FF

That article is quite a good summary of the situation, although I don't quite agree with the apportioning of blame.

Home owners, primarily although not exclusively, dig into their pockets and place solar on their roof to mitigate their rising electricity bills. Solar farms build their facilities to make money. Did they do their research? They had no problem taking money when fossil fuelled stations were back to negative prices (negative prices are typically in effect between 0900hrs and 1500hrs, but this does vary considerably). There is a shoulder period either side of the negative prices where the cost is in the black, but still uneconomic. To say that roof top solar is to blame for the issues is a little trite and quite disingenuous.

However, it has to be remembered that we are talking about the spot market, which is a small section of the market. My guess is that the spot market could be somewhere in the vicinity of 20% to 30% of the total with the rest being under fixed contracts. At the start of Spring demand is low (same situation when we come to Autumn) and the pricing anomalies are exacerbated at this time.

As the article pointed out and we have stated so many times on this thread, we have been at the point for some time where we really need to concentrate on storage more than straight renewables. The dilemma is that the renewables cannot cope with continuity of supply and the fossil fueled stations cannot compete economically only operating at night. As more renewables come online and supply through the day (solar), the thermal stations will be less able to renew their fixed contracts at economic prices.

Regards
Paul

Edit: On the Gas Stations, most of them are remote controlled. The "once through" units are only marginally better regarding CO2 emissions than the supercritical coal fired units. The HRSG plants with a conventional, but low pressure, boiler tacked on to the back end to utilise the heat in the exhaust gases are a little slower to reach full load, but the Gas Turbine component is still pretty quick: Just a few minutes to start and reach full load. They have about two thirds of the CO2 emissions of the supercriticals assuming they get to use their conventional boilers, which may not be the case. Consequently, I don't see too many investors jumping in to make some hay (when the sun isn't shining) as the life expectancy may not justify the outlay.: Sorry to repeat this, but it has to be viable or subsidised.