CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

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Originally Posted by Tccp123

All I can say is I (and I'm not alone though I appear to be here) hope I'm right and the rest of you are wrong, and that's not so that I can come back and say I told you so.

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I also hope you are right, but the data is not looking good.

Most people don't understand that the whole thing is on a hair line trigger and things happen too fast to try to contain things after they have happened. Even though they are not always right I'd rather ride on the side of caution based on what a consensus group of medical experts say rather that a bunch of lone rangers etc.

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Originally Posted by GraemeCook

I share your fears. But Africa has dealt surprisingly well with the ebola virus with little more, resource-wise, than common sense.

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Major difference with Ebola is its asymptotic transmissions is much lower than COVID19
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...110-X/fulltext

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Originally Posted by GraemeCook

Bob, we are still waiting for you to post the photos.
What style of underpants do you wear as a mask when shopping at Coles? Perhaps Prada?

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I haven't been into a shop since we started wearing masks 2 weeks ago and FWIW my undies are mostly very saggy/baggy/thin Rio's.
SWMBO will not deal with them so I have to wash my own.

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Originally Posted by BobL

...the more you know about something the more you realise how little you know about even that "something".

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Prexactly, Bob.

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Originally Posted by Lappa

At of yesterday, 59131 people lost their lives to this virus in 3.5 months and that’s only the reported numbers. Let’s say 5% would have died anyway due to old age, pre existing conditions etc.

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Thing is, we are only just getting started and are likely to have to survive more than one dose, there will be other (mutated and possibly more virulent) waves.

My BOTE suggests that about 50% of the older people that are dying would have died sometime in the next year. BUT as Neil says, even if you are 75 years old you still might have liked to live for 6 more months.

This doesn't take into account the loss of many skilled medical people being lost.
For these, the number that would have died this year is much lower - maybe more like 5% and it will take decades to replace these people.
eg Anaesthetists take years of training to get up to speed.

Even if you escape COVID19 you could be affected for the rest of your life with it because of the loss of specialised medical people removed from the medical pool. When you need urgent surgery in a few years time and are told sorry we don't have enough anaesthetists, go to the end of the queue, you may finally be sorry you dodged quarantine, had a few quite ones with mates, or did not wear A BASIC mask to the supermarket.

Wife’s been busy!

Attachment 470902If

Me ~33 years ago working in our second generation ultra clean air facility at Uni.

The pipette contains triple distilled nitric acid along with an environmental sample being deposited and then evaporated from a rhenium metal mass spectrometer filament.
Note two pairs of acid washed plastic gloves with cotton liners
Attachment 470903
The mask (made by SWMBO) was not to stop me breathing anything in (although HNO3 is not nice stuff) but to reduce the amount of contamination I might breath onto the sample.
The main contaminants in human breath that concerned us was sodium and ammonia and while we were not analysing for these elements they suppressed the detection of others. Even an open weave T-shirt cloth like this reduced the amount of Na and NH3 present down to the tiny amounts normally present in the HNO3, despite the triple distillation.

I should ALSO add there was a 1600 CFM ultra-HEPA (99.997% >0.3 microns) clean air flow directed down from the ceiling directly over the sample which generated an air curtain between the operator and the sample. This air was carried away down to a plastic floor with lots of holes in it and then scrubbed and recirculated back through the HEPA filter.

Later we adopted a plastic shroud between the sample and operator and loaded samples under a microscope.
This was very awkward so the plastic was eventually replaced with a perspex shield

Attachment 470904

I love seeing super dooper mega accurate science being done and the techs are wearing plastic sheets and home made masks.

Its excellent stuff. Shows that basic can be good.

I found a pair of undies that were not too stained and are suitable for a mask.
The beard coverage is excellent.

Attachment 470929

Today's spreadsheet attached (as at Saturday 4th April, 23:59 GMT).

Points to note:

• Countries with 2000+ cases account for 66% of world population. 3 days ago it was 44%, 6 days ago 35%
• USA cases up 43%, deaths up 75%, and the death rate is climbing significantly.
• Spanish and Italian increases are modest (cases and deaths) but the death rate is still climbing (due to the time it takes to die).
• France, UK, Turkey, Canada, Brazil death rates are all blowing out.
• None of the 2000+ countries have a death rate <0.5%.
• European death rates are really bad overall, occupying 7 of the top 9 spots. Same for infection rate with 12/12 spots, and 16/19 spots.
• Asian infection rates are all towards the bottom.
• No African or Central American countries with 2000+ cases yet.
• Australia's new case rate has dropped significantly in the last 3 days to 14.2%, but deaths and death rate have increased (due to the time it takes to die).

BTW, a favour from someone please: can you tell me if the spreadsheet gives you the same colours as this screenshot? No need to check each cell, just approx will do.
Attachment 470938

Had a chat with my Italian cousin who owns/runs a small electric motor factory near Padua. They are all OK and because electric motor replacement is deemed essential he can still run his factory albeit in a reduce operational state. His factory is right next to his house so no travelling for him to work but they do provide a delivery and replacement service for which he sends out one of his young blokes. All his workers have to wear masks and gloves and the have cranked the ventilation up.

Had a scheduled meeting with my wife’s Superannuation Financial adviser yesterday (was planned back in February)
Funds have been hit but I’m still on track to retire beginning of next year.:2tsup:
He explained these “dips” happen approx. every 10 years - 2001, 2007/2008, 2019/2020 so don’t panic. Interestingly, looking at the DOW ( lots of figures available) it took about 18 months after 2001, 4 years after 2007/2008 to come back to pre slump figures. The DOW last month was down 26%, 2007/2008 down 33% and 2001/2002 down 16%.
When we were cleaning out FIL’s papers, we came across a chart his father had copied from Tritch 1872 predicting panic years, depression years and good years. 2019 is listed as a panic year :oo:

Had a takeaway pizza last night, and a local GP was also in the pickup queue, standing on his "X". Discussed masks.

He said that medical masks reduced risks of infection but did not eliminate them. Once a mask got wet - from breathing, sneezing or coughing, or any other cause - then it lost its effectiveness dramatically. "A saturated mask actually increases the risk of infection." [That surprised me, too.] He emphasised that masks had to be changed regularly. Under normal circumstances a mask was fine for two hours, was probably saturated after three hours, in absolute best case situation it might take four hours. After that it was counterproductive and gave a false sense of security.

He said that at the moment they had "almost enough" masks, but no reserve stock; they have to be frugal. What happens if their is a glytch in the supply? Do we - doctors, nurses and receptionists - take unnecessay risks, or do we decline to see patients. We have chosen not to see any new patients; we are overloaded.

They were also preparing for a shortage of masks. Moderately soiled masks were being laundered in a washer/dryer and then vacuum sealed in batches of twenty...... "while we work out what to do..." if they really are forced to reuse masks. He said that they tried dry cleaning masks but the smell made everyone feel sick. He said the prime problem was washing, drying and storing the masks in sterile conditions. A GP's practice is not equipped to do that.

He said that he and his staff were all wearing "work clothes" at work, changing to "travel clothes" to go home, showering immediately on arriving home and then donning "home clothes". Washing hands with hot water, soap and brush hourly, washing hands between patients, and hand cleanser "when needed".

He and his colleagues are exposed, his family is indirectly exposed, they are very knowledgable and they are taking it very seriously.

He said that always, all gowns are washed every night. Gloves are also a potential problem and they cannot be reused.

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Originally Posted by Lappa

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Funds have been hit but I’m still on track to retire beginning of next year.:2tsup:

He explained these “dips” happen approx. every 10 years - 2001, 2007/2008, 2019/2020 so don’t panic. .......

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There has been a massive discussion on this in the professional and academic literature over the last 100+ years. The concensus seems to be that there is an investment cycle and that cycles last between 7 and 10 years. But it is impossible to predict when they start and when they end. Its "good" to be in equities (shares) on the rising market, and "good" to be in cash (bonds, bank deposits) in the troughs. But as you cannot predict the transition, by switching to cash after a trough has started then you are locking yourself out of the future rising market.

Just think about it; if you could reliably predict the timing of the transition, then you would very quickly be a billionaire!

He wasn’t trying to predict rises and falls nor suggest that I try and predict same, he was just giving examples. His message was simple - they happen - don’t panic.

The other move the Govt has taken on Super is to halve the minimum amount you have to take out. So, if you can live on less, you can now draw less and reduce the drain on your Capital.

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Originally Posted by Lappa

He wasn’t trying to predict rises and falls nor suggest that I try and predict same, he was just giving examples. His message was simple - they happen - don’t panic,

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I realise that, Lappa. Looks like you have one of the few competent fnancial advisors around.

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Originally Posted by GraemeCook

Had a takeaway pizza last night, and a local GP was also in the pickup queue, standing on his "X". Discussed masks.

He said that medical masks reduced risks of infection but did not eliminate them.

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I agree.

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Under normal circumstances a mask was fine for two hours,

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If anyone can't get their grocery shopping done in under that time then they're either seriously dawdling in the aisles or going to the wrong supermarket.

The protocol my son and SWMBO are using using with reusable masks is to use a fresh masks and new gloves when social distancing is unavailable like shops. When all shopping is done the masks are removed with gloved hands and placed in a plastic bag, and the gloves are disposed of. When they come home the masks and plastic bag are hung on a line outside and saturate sprayed with a 80% meths water mix and left to dry out. When we go out like to exercise dogs we always take fresh masks and gloves in case we unavoidably have to interact with someone. I don't go into any shops etc. The tear day I did fill the car with diesel wearing disposable gloves but SWMBO went in and paid.