That article has serious flaws and will do significant harmQuote:
The driver of this madness is that the data we are working with, as has been pointed out by many epidemiologists, is fundamentally flawed. If we don’t know how many people have been infected, we don’t know the mortality rate.
One does not need to know the infection rate to indicate significant non-normality in death rates.
Just compare the number of deaths per day relative to the usual death rate.
In Lombardy with about 10 million people and about a 90 year longevity, about 300 persons should be dying per day, instead they have days with 600, 700, 800 persons dying.
No flu season in the last 90 decades loses 50 skilled doctors and removes 2000 nurses due to quarantine from a single region like Lombardy
And that is all happening with VERY significant population measures and drastic medical interventions.
I'll leave it to the medical modellers to work out what would have happened if little or nothing was done.
The article appears to have been written some time ago as the references to Sweden and other places having relaxed social distancing and relative normality no longer apply. Sweden now has as fast a COVID19 growth rate as the rest of Europe and even Singapore just a day or so ago has gone from a relatively relaxed open stance to a seriously hard shutdown harder even than us.
Let's see what happens in 3rd world countries where people are packed together like sardines and basically zero medical intervention when this thing really takes off.
