"Do us a Favor". Top peer reviewed scientific journal Editor-in-Chief confronts Trump.
Do us a favor | Science
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"Do us a Favor". Top peer reviewed scientific journal Editor-in-Chief confronts Trump.
Do us a favor | Science
History..:DQuote:
Originally Posted by Lappa
It was actually the figures you are providing. :U
Just checked Worldometers. Interesting site. Thanks Graeme. Looks like they have references to all their figures
All my figures come directly from news updates you can find on any online newspaper, TV station or Govt website kungsleden. The funny thing is they, for once, all agree with each other:D
worldometer. They appear to have references/sources for all the figures they quote from the figures/charts I’ve looked at.Quote:
Originally Posted by kungsleden
This is worth a listen/look.
Dr Norman Swan recommends 'severe' shutdowns - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
Judging by what I saw in a drive around Brisbane this afternoon there's no shortage of people treating this lightly. Restaurants, pubs and cafes appear to be doing a roaring trade as usual and there didn't seem to be any fewer people on the streets. Telling people to avoid crowds will have about as much effect as telling them to limit their purchase of bathroom consumables I suspect.
If you read carefully you will see that WHO sources were actually referenced.Quote:
Originally Posted by kungsleden
I deliberately did not fully reference the Worldometer stuff as I am almost certain that it is a secondary source, and I have no information on its credibility - issues that I very carefully highlighted.
My Macca's wasn't busy this morning for brekky or this evening for dinner. At both occasions it had an empty drive thru, one couple inside and myself. It's usually busy at the times I went. I guess people have too much food. Cole's was stripped bare this evening with only my junk food available and other crap that no one wants to eat (vegan stuff!)Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
For younger people I guess nothing short of the death of an older Relative will make much difference.
My son would once have been like that but now with two kids (one autistic) he really relies on us and in laws for support and help so if he loses us his support mechanism will greatly reduced so he’s taking the whole thing very seriously. He normally has a 2 x 40 min car/train commute to the city and works in an office with 25 other blokes but fortunately is able to work from home for weeks on end if needs be.
this is another illustration of why the SYSTEM of government in the US is by design so very weak.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lappa
Militarily the US is super strong -- outspending its closest competitor (China) by a factor of almost five -- but when it comes to civil administration, the task is by design left to the local authority (county).
The situation first came to the general Australian public's attention in 2005 with Hurricane Katrina (a strong category 3 storm) -- the City of New Orleans was left to its own devices to recover from the flooding. New Orleans may have "dodged a bullet" when the most destructive sector of the hurricane (the NW quadrant) made landfall west (rather than east) of the city -- leading President Bush to conclude everything was OK. New Orleans was actually destroyed by the flooding that accompanied the storm.
Covid-19 is just another example of the same by design effect of the US Constitution. Individual rights, as expressed through the winner takes all electoral system at the level of each individual county, means that it is the individual county that is the first responder to any public health crisis. BTW, there are almost 18,000 (actually 17,985 according to Dr Google) police agencies in the US.
What this means is that it is the individual county which is responsible for the first response to a crisis like Covid-19. The next level of response is the State Governor who can, where deemed necessary, deploy the state based National Guard to "keep order" -- I'm not so sure about 2nd element "keeping the peace" let alone the 3rd element "good government".
There are Federal Level agencies with the necessary contingency budgets -- but Trump has to declare a National Emergency before cheques can be written and the money flow to each State or county who in turn will engage contractors to deliver the actual health services required.
If there's one tiny bit of good news it is that my age is finally working for me (at supermarkets between 7 - 8 am). I wonder how they'll enforce it? Will they have security people on the doors where you have to flash your senior's card?
What's it like living in a full lock down situation?
Here's an information Post by the Mayor of the locked down town of Belluno (36,000 inhabitants) in Northern Italy.
Perhaps unlike other parts of Italy the people in this region have above average common sense.
1) Some Parking meters have been turned off and some parking restrictions lifted around supermarkets enabling seniors to park closer to supermarkets.
2) Large outside markets are closed but small vending stalls spaced at sufficient distance apart in outside locations are permitted.
3) Street and building disinfection will be undertaken on a regular basis and public rubbish bins will be emptied and disinfected more regularly than usual.
4) Police checks will continue to be undertaken on people's movements and socialisation, 300 homes and 800 commercial activities have been checked in 24 hours with 2 fines issued.
5) Parks: Persons are allowed to use parks using common sense. eg maintain social distancing. Solo walking cycling etc are permitted staying as far as possible away from everyone else. No stopping to chat. Avoid sitting on park benches.
6) Supermarkets. Do not bring anyone else with you to do the shopping. Keep away from other shopper, staff and the register. Don't handle goods unnecessarily.
7) Watch out for scammers - then a list of some of the things they are doing.
There's a lot more but that gives you the flavour ie flexible, practical common sense
I wonder when the time comes if we can do likewise.
And the mayor finishes with
And a sign on the supermarket door in the small village where another relative lives.Quote:
Someone pointed out to me that "our grandparents were asked to go to the front to get shot at, today we're asked to be locked in the house on the couch". I mean, surely we can do that
This is directed to Non-regional people, ie tourists or escapees from large cities invading the countryside to escape the epidemic.
"The health facilities in this region have been designed to support the numbers of permanent residents of the region. Your presence will overload and possibly collapse the system if it needs to serve you."
In other words if you are "not from these ere parts then F-OFF"
I live opposite the entrance to a primary school. I watched for a while as kids arrived this morning. There wasn't a lot of "social distancing" happening...
So true, Ian.Quote:
Originally Posted by ian
I watched much of Hurricane Katrina unfold from my local yacht club. Many of us were puzzled by the apparent absense of the American govenment or releif agencies. A visiting American yachtsman's explanation, and I quote*: "It's a f*cking n*gger town". Truth from a bottle of bourbon? And when the US military belatedly arrived they were very heaving armed; A Viet Vet commented that "They got more sh*t than we had in Nam".
Six months or so later two Cat 4 cyclones hit FNQ, both were stronger than Katrina, and I watched the news reports in the same yacht club in the presence of several cruising Americans. They were amazed at how quickly and effectively the Australian military and SES rolled into action; Hercules relief aircraft landing when the winds were still gale force, orange jump suits everywhere, Navy ships steaming north within 48 hours, and zero armaments - "The Australian Army does not bear arms against Australians" was greeted with incredulity.
Or as one American summed it up "Australia seems like America but it ain't."
* It's a quote; please do not shoot the messenger, please!
SWMBO, originally from Ireland, was talking to relatives in Donegal on Saturday who related some experiences of living in partial lock down.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
Bars and restaurants are still open, but all seats must be at least one metre apart. Bench seats including snugs (those U-shaped booths wrapping around a table) must be closed off. Drinkers must stand one metre apart. And apparently some pesky patrons move the chairs!
Parishioners are locked out of mass but are encouraged to watch their local priest on his podcast. Where practical, priest may arrange private mass for small groups.
Baptisms, weddings and funerals may still take place, but the number of celebrants/mourners must not exceed 99 and the one metre social distancing rule must apply.
Most retail businesses apart, from shops and pharmacies, are closed; entry into stores must be controlled so social distancing rule is enforced.
Hand washing everywhere; socially taboo to have a sniffle in public.
Most people are behaving sensibly, a few clowns.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GraemeCook
You have too love the Irish
Pubs still open !!!!
Can’t live with out the black stuff(Guinness[emoji6])
Cheers Matt.
I’m concerned by “limited numbers” in any sort of group gatherings. Whether it 10, 99, 250 or 500. If it means more than one person from outside a communal family group the virus has a much greater chance of spreading.
There is little about coronavirus that is good but the most disturbing aspect is that a person can be tested positive and have no outward symptoms, illness or discomfort. Richard Wilkins is the latest example of this in the public arena. What would have happened, as a presenter/journalist in contact with many people, if he had done a Scott Morrison?
Regards
Paul
Or the paddy!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Simplicity
This is from Australian Doctor:
This is from Australian Doctor ...
https://www.ausdoc.com.au/opinion/qa-what-you-need-know-about-covid19?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTldObE5qazFOakZrWVRJMiIsInQiOiJ5UVA5YzVtTjB1M1JwRE05UVJ4MFd5bng3NDRJWVwvQmhRYnBldmY3WSt1V3VQMnUxTzFYVVpLTHAzbm9Ea3BBTDRcL05iSVwvQVhPZ1wvU3RZYndpcFBRYkZxd0ZTalNWUmVrVFVvOFc0d084eVZUd2N0WXd3RHlJdVhXQkRydXhWVU4ifQ%3D%3D
Take care
Regards from Perth
Derek
Looks like you need to join up or sign in to read that Derek.Quote:
Originally Posted by derekcohen
Cheers Matt.
Interesting article regarding Chinas future
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...-change-china/
Cheers Matt.
Breaking it down to manageable bites:
Edited transcript
Sunanda Creagh: Hi, I’m Sunanda Creagh. I’m the digital storytelling editor at The Conversation, and I’m here today with two of Australia’s leading researchers on viruses and vaccines.
Lisa Sedger: Hi, my name’s Lisa Sedger. I’m an academic virologist at the University of Technology Sydney. And I do research on novel anti-viral agents and teach virology.
Michael Wallach: I’m Professor Michael Wallach, the Associate Head of School for the School of Life Science (at the University of Technology Sydney) and my expertise in the area of development of vaccines.
Sunanda Creagh: And today, we’re asking these researchers to answer questions about coronavirus and COVID-19 from you guys, our readers and our audience. We’re going to kick it off with Dr Sedger. Adam would like to know: how long can this virus survive in various temperatures on a surface, say, a door handle or a counter at a public place?
Dr Sedger: Oh, well, that’s an interesting question, because we hear a variety of answers.
Some people say that these types of envelope viruses can exist for 2-3 days, but it really depends on the amount of moisture and humidity and what happens on that surface afterwards, whether it’s wiped off or something.So potentially for longer than that, potentially up to a week. But with cleaning and disinfectants, etc, not very long.
Sunanda Creagh: And what’s an envelope virus?
Dr Sedger: Well, viruses are basically nucleic acid. So DNA, like is in all of the cells in our body, or RNA.
And then they have a protein coat and then outside of that they have an envelope that’s made of lipids. So it’s just an outer layer of the virus.
And if it’s made of lipids, you can imagine any kind of detergent like when you’re doing your dishes, disrupts all the lipids in the fat. That’s how you get all the grease off your plates. Right?
So any detergent like that will disrupt the envelope of the virus and make it non-infective. So cleaning surfaces is a good way to try and eliminate an infective virus particle from, for example, door handles, surfaces, et cetera.
Read more: What gets contaminated in COVID-19 isolation rooms?
Sunanda Creagh: And Professor Wallach, Paul would like to know: should people cancel travel plans given that this virus is already here? Does travelling make the spread worse? And that’s international travel or domestic travel.
Professor Wallach: So this question has come up to many different governments from around the world who’ve reacted very differently.
Australia’s been very strategic in banning travel to certain places. And of course, those places you would not want to travel to at the time when there’s an outbreak like China, Italy, Iran, etc..I was also asked the question on ABC Tasmania: should the Tasmanians restrict domestic travel to Tasmania? At the time, they had a single case. And I said to them, if you have one case, you most likely have more. You will not prevent the entry of the virus into Tasmania.
But what restricting travel can do is restrict the number of people who are seeding that area with virus and make it more manageable. So it’s a question of timing.
As I was saying to you earlier, the cost-benefit of closing off travel has to be weighed very carefully because the economic impacts are very great. So I think it’s a case by case basis. Ultimately, the planet is now seeded.
And we’re moving into the stage of exponential growth and that it will affect travel very severely, where in all likelihood, travel will be very much curtailed now.
Read more: China trialling tocilizumab for coronavirus
Sunanda Creagh: And this question’s from our reader, David. He wants to know: with the flu killing more people each year than coronavirus and mostly the same demographic, why is this outbreak receiving so much attention? Can’t we just catch the flu just as easily without cancelling events and travel plans?
Dr Sedger: Yes, and I understand the question. Flu exists. We get it seasonally every year and then we get pandemic flu.
And yes, people do die from influenza. I think it was 16,000 people in the US died last US winter.
But the issue with this virus is that we don’t yet know how to treat it particularly well. We’re trialling anti-viral drugs in China at the very moment.
There’s clinical trials on experimental drugs. There’s drugs that doctors are using. But until that data comes in and we actually know what regime of anti-viral drugs (are best) to use, then we don’t really yet know how to treat it with anti-viral drugs.
The other thing is with flu, we have a vaccine. People can take the vaccine. Somebody gets sick in their family, the other family members can take the vaccine and prevent the spread of the virus.
So the difference is with flu, we have ways to control it. We know about the disease. We know how it presents.
This virus, we’re still understanding the clinical presentation and in different cohorts. So different age groups, different countries, different situations, we’re still understanding the symptoms. And we don’t yet fully know how to control it by antivirals. And we don’t have a vaccine yet.Professor Wallach: Can I just add to that a bit? I think one of the reasons we’re being so careful is when it broke and Wuhan, at the beginning the mortality rate was extremely high. And with related viruses like SARS, and MERS that went as high as 35%, whereas flu mortality rates is usually around 0.1%.
So it was that very high mortality rate that gave a real shock. Had it continued, it would have been devastating. We’re very fortunate that now we see it dropping down to the 2-3% level and some say much lower.
Dr Sedger: And we also know now that some people get COVID-19 and have very minimal symptoms and almost don’t even know that they’ve been sick. So I think that fear and anxiety, in that sense, is lowering.
Read more: Coronavirus patients symptom-free for five days on average
Sunanda Creagh: And Molly wants to know: how far off is a vaccine?
Professor Wallach: So, we are working on vaccines in Australia. The group in Melbourne was the first to be able to isolate and grow the virus. And I’ve been in touch with them, in fact, this morning.
We’re working collaboratively nationally as well as internationally, collaborating with people at Stanford Medical School who through Stanford, in collaborations we have with them, we have worldwide about 15 vaccine projects going, plus all sorts of industry companies are aiming to make vaccines. In fact, one company in Israel early on announced that they believe that they can get to a vaccine within a few weeks.
The problem with the vaccine is you may produce it even quickly, but it’s testing it and making sure that it’s actually going to help.
There’s a fear, with COVID-19, that if it is not formulated correctly, to make a long story short, it can actually exacerbate the disease.So everyone has to take it slowly and carefully so that we don’t actually cause more problems than we currently have.
But I’m optimistic and believe that we’ll get there. The WHO declared it would take 18 months. I would like to present a more optimistic view, not based on anything that substantial, but I think we can do better than that. And it is a great learning curve for the next time this happens.
Read more: Coronavirus vaccine still at least one year away
Dr Sedger: Can I make a comment on that, too? We’ve just seen Africa experience a very significant outbreak of Ebola virus, and there’s been an experimental vaccine that’s been administered that has largely controlled that outbreak.
I think the people working in vaccines and the people who do the safety and efficacy studies, we’ve learnt a lot from how to administer vaccines, how to get the data we need to show safety more quickly than we might have in the past. So in the sense we’ve learnt, we’re learning lessons constantly from viral outbreaks.
It might not be the same virus, might not be the same country, even the same continent. But we’re learning how to do these things more efficiently and more quickly. And always the issue is weighing up safety versus the ethics of the need to administer all get it, get the drug out there as quickly as possible.
Read more: The shadow of SARS: China learnt the hard way how to handle an epidemic
Sunanda Creagh: This reader asks: isn’t lining up at fever clinics for tests just going to spread it even more?
Professor Wallach: So for sure, the way in which people are processed at clinics is crucial and the minimal distance you should keep from a person who’s infected is, according again to the WHO, is one metre. So the clinics have to ensure that spread is minimised, not only spread between people waiting in line, but to the health workers themselves.
We’ve had real problems for health workers in China. Several died. And we face that problem here. One of the things we have to do is ensure that we protect our health workers because otherwise they’re not going to want to go in and actually see the patients.Unfortunately, masks alone do not work. We can’t rely on them. So it’s a problem.
In Israel, for example, testing for COVID-19, takes place in one’s home. An ambulance pulls up and takes the swab and then takes it to the lab. That actually would be the ideal approach. True, the ambulance services in Israel now are swamped and having great difficulty in coping.
But as much as we can keep people separated from each other when they’re infected, it’s crucial for the success of any campaign.
Read more: Thousands of Chinese healthcare workers contract coronavirus
Sunanda Creagh: And these questions from Jake. He wants to know for people like myself living in Victoria. How likely is it that we can catch the virus and is hand-washing really the only thing we can be doing to protect ourselves?
Dr Sedger: I think we now know that the virus is definitely in Australia.
If you go to the New South Wales or Victorian Health government websites, you can see them update the statistics daily, even less than a day, so that the truth is it’s here and it’s probably in more people than we realise because we haven’t tested as many people and we now realise some people are asymptomatic or don’t show classic flu like symptoms.
So it’s here and you can’t say that you’re not going to get sick. Alright? That’s the first thing to say.
The second thing is, though, we can minimise what we do. Okay. So we can wash our hands constantly. We can try not to touch our face, our eyes, our ears, our nose.
We’ve learned, for example, even how do you dispose of a tissue when you sneeze or cough or, you know, sneeze into your elbow? So it’s just about common sense. This is what I think. It’s no different really than protecting yourself from any respiratory virus infection. So seasonal flu or even a pandemic flu.
Read more: How to cope with pandemic panic
Sunanda Creagh: And how do you dispose of a tissue safely?
Dr Sedger: Well, I guess you fold it in and then you put — you don’t touch it, you don’t put it up your sleeve, OK? — you put it in the garbage bin and wash your hands afterwards.
Sunanda Creagh: Reader Michael would like to know: what can we learn from other countries that are handling this well? He says basically South Korea, as far as I can tell.
Professor Wallach: So the country that handled this outbreak the best so far has been Taiwan.
The Taiwanese have been amazing in the sense that after the pandemic commenced in China, many Taiwanese returned to Taiwan. And you would have expected they’d seed that island very strongly and it would be a major outbreak.
They were ready before the pandemic commenced. And that was largely because they went through a SARS outbreak.
Previously, they had in place all the testing, all the people. They have the best health system in the world. And they kept the numbers down to 45 cases during a period when in China it was going into the tens of thousands.
And they should be commended on that. It’s quite amazing the way they did that.
The issue now in Taiwan, which concerns them, is in the end, that’s a great start. But their population now is unexposed and susceptible. So how do you release them from this sort of quarantine situation? That is the next phase.And that’s what we’re looking to see how that works, because same in Wuhan. The minute you put everyone back out to work and in the street, will there be a second wave? Most virologists, I think, would expect there will be a major second wave, third wave and maybe continued into the future.
So we have to continue with our preparedness and with the hope that the vaccine will come into effect sooner rather than later. And then bringing the quarantine approach, enabling that peak of viral infection to occur when the vaccine is available. That would be the goal.
Dr Sedger: If I could just add one point there. When you look at the number of cases on a per-day basis in Wuhan, it was escalating very quickly. And then they brought in their very strict quarantine and self-isolation.
But the cases continued to increase until a point where it started to look like it was under control and going down. And that was after two weeks. So quarantine only works until after the quarantine period, because only after that will you see the effect.
So I would argue there’s two factors for why isolation worked in Wuhan: One was you limited the spread through the self-isolation and imposed quarantine, but at the same time, the number of people who are infected and asymptomatic were building their own immunity.The number of people who were infected and sick but who survived, one would imagine, have a robust immune response to that virus. So at the same time as limiting spread, you have also slowly built or actually quite quickly built a community with much higher levels of what we call herd immunity. So this second outbreak may come, but it may be considerably less significant.
Read more: The pandemic is here: The story of what China did to contain the virus
Professor Wallach: In fact, that the areas where there are the major outbreaks maybe have better herd immunity than places where you keep it down to nothing. So it works both ways.
Sunanda Creagh: And Jane would like to know: when do we stop testing for this disease and basically just assume that everybody with the sniffles has it?
Professor Wallach: So first of all, the major symptoms are not sniffles, they are fever and coughing and shortness of breath. It’s the sniffles, though, that causes it to be spreadable more easily.
That’s a good question: what the health authorities will decide to do at various stages of this pandemic. We’re now at what I would consider the early seeding phase.
The world is now seeded with virus and different countries were going through exponential phases like described in Wuhan at different times. And how do they handle that will be a crucial question. I’ve seen all the different approaches from US, Israel, Iran.
I think that a mixture of very strategic quarantine with travel restrictions, with bringing in other types of… certainly health authorities will need to control the number of beds that are being occupied.
For example, again, in Israel, they just went over their bed limits, so patients are starting to be treated at home.
So at some point, I think depending on how the epidemic goes, if we can keep it under control, we can keep the testing going. We can keep control.If the exponential rise is too fast, we will lose control and the testing will become meaningless. So the hope is that things will be sorted and I think Australia has the opportunity to do really well and big decisions have to be made now.
Read more: 'They’re deciding who to intubate and who to let die': Italian doctors
Dr Sedger: There’s already a paper just this week published in The Lancet that profiles survivors versus those who have succumbed from the infection. And we’re starting to learn what some of those factors are.
So as as clinicians can better predict who are likely to be the more seriously ill people, they can better predict who should go to hospital for treatment, and as [Professor Wallach] has said, who are better actually just treated at home.
Sunanda Creagh: And Dr Sedger, Kardia would like to know: how does this virus respond to cold or warm temperatures? Is it like the flu, which thrives in cold weather?
Dr Sedger: I have heard so many different things about this. I will be completely honest and say I’m not certain that we really know.
What we know is when this high humidity viruses can exist for longer because they don’t dry out. So that envelope we talked about is less likely to be dried out.
And once that’s dried out, the virus is less infective. It’s not actually infective at all if it’s disrupted that envelope.
But whether it likes cold temperatures, high temperatures, we think it’s not a warm temperature virus. We think it’s more a cold temperature virus.
China’s just been going through their winter. Maybe one of the reasons it’s been big in Italy is they’ve just had winter.
We also think the coexistence of seasonal flu in Italy at the same time is probably one of the factors that’s made it more severe. So, yeah, look, different circumstances in different countries, different climates.
It’s not just about climate, though. It’s about susceptibility of various populations.Therefore, it’s a hard question to answer (at the moment).
Professor Wallach: Look, I would say in working in infectious diseases for many years, it’s a very difficult thing to predict. Remember with, it doesn’t matter which disease I was working on, everyone said it can’t transmit in dry climates. And it transmitted beautifully in the desert. And you think everything’s totally dry and it still transmits and vice versa.
Dr Sedger: Well, you’ve got MERS is another coronavirus, which is your Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome, and that’s in the desert climates. So that’s why I wanted to hedge my bets on my answer.
Read more: Doctors call for stricter coronavirus discharge rules
Sunanda Creagh: And Professor Wallach, this reader wants to know: once you’ve recovered from coronavirus, can you just go back to your normal, non-isolating life?
Professor Wallach: So the current understanding, according to colleagues also in the US, is if you go through one infection, you’re probably rendered immune against re-infection.
There have been reports of cases of people getting re-infected. But the opinion that I heard so far is that it’s probably recurrence of the same infection that probably went down in terms of clinical symptoms. But the virus remained that just came back up.
It happens with the flu all the time.
The question is, what should be your behaviour after you go through a bout? I guess I would still be careful, which [Dr Sedger] can maybe add to, it could be that the virus will continue to mutate.
Although, again, I fortunately heard this morning that they’re not that worried about this virus mutating at the rate that flu does. And we’re hopeful that we will develop herd immunity.
People have gone through it then will be fairly safe unless, you have some immune disorder. And then it will become part of our environment just like flu is.Sunanda Creagh: And here’s a question from me. It seems like there’s two camps. There’s the people who genuinely really concerned, quite worried about the situation. We see that in the panic buying. And then there’s the other camp of people who are saying it’s all been blown up. It’s all hype. We don’t really need to worry about it. It’s too early to panic.
And I just wondered, how do you reconcile those two views out there in the community?
Read more: Top doc urges calm over toilet roll panic buying
Professor Wallach: So early on in this outbreak, when I was interviewed also on the ABC and speaking to other groups, I took a very low-panic view, maybe because I’ve been thinking about a pandemic for many years. And for me, it was always not a question of if, but when.
I actually look at this, in a way, in a positive sense. We’re facing a pandemic that, yeah, as terrible as it is, is nothing in comparison to what could be if it’s a pandemic flu.
For example, we experienced the Spanish flu in 1918, which killed somewhere between 20-50 million people. So the order of magnitude of mortality right now is extremely low compared to other potential pandemics. If you take China out of the equation, we’re at about 1500 people who died worldwide.
That’s not to say we shouldn’t show great respect for the value of their lives.
It’s mainly very elderly people with complicating illnesses and probably would have had the same effect if they were infected by flu.
So my take on this whole thing is we all have to stay calm. We all have to accept the fact that this is part of nature. These viruses are out there all the time. We know them.I can detect now flu viruses in wildlife, birds that are coming into this country now, that can mutate and start affecting humans. So we have to be prepared. We have to face up to them, together in a collaborative way, in a scientific and professional way. And we could win.
If we panic and react the way the market is, for example, of course, that’s that’s an improper way to react. Rather, this is part of being, of our biology. Viruses exist that can hurt us and they will always exist.
Dr Sedger: Yeah. Look, I think there are a few factors that we can really learn from. So one is to work out where these viruses come from. And a lot of these RNA viruses exist in bats. They seem to be transmitted into wild animals through bat droppings.
And I think one of the lessons we, the world all over, might need to learn is how we deal with the marketing and selling of wild animals that are then used for foods. That may then prevent these viruses from getting into the human population.
So I think there are lessons to be learned, number one. But, [Professor Wallach], I would disagree with you in one sense “that it is maybe not as bad as pandemic flu”, on the other hand: we do have vaccines for flu, we do have anti-virals.And we have a whole world that has various levels of immunity to flu and different strains of flu. Whereas this virus is entering into a naive (non)-immune population. And that’s what’s so significant to start with. It may be that as our immunity at a population level increases, as a disease this will become far less significant.
But the first outbreak of it in a naive, (non)-immune, (and a) “naive population” will always have the highest level of morbidity and mortality. And that’s where we have learned from other diseases like Ebola.
As I mentioned, what we already know about flu, how we already control flu and the development of new and novel antiviral agents will be just as effective and important, I believe, as will the development of vaccines.
So I think there’s a lot to learn to prevent this or limit, I should say, to limit these the severity of the outbreak and maybe even prevent it from happening again. As I say, if we stop trapping wild animals and eating them, we might prevent the outbreak of some of these type of RNA viruses.
Professor Wallach: So I certainly agree with that. And China is now putting into law a restriction on the sale of wildlife in their markets.
What I’m trying to do, and I hope we both agree, is that in proportion to, for example, influenza, even seasonal flu that killed in one year I think up to 600,000 people worldwide, I’m just trying to put things into proportion. To prevent people from panicking. To understand that, yes, this is affecting the elderly. And anyone who is elderly, suffering from heart or respiratory conditions would certainly isolate themselves.
So where my wife’s parents live, where they live in a retirement village, they made a decision to close off the entire village. Nobody’s allowed in, as a means of preventing — because they’re an elderly population — people bringing in COVID-19 and infecting that area. And I certainly agree with that sort of strategy.
Sunanda Creagh: And John would like to know: are the death rates likely to be lower in a country like Australia with lower rates of smoking than places such as China, Iran and Indonesia?
Read more: Which patients fare worst with coronavirus?
Dr Sedger: Again, I think this is a little bit we have to watch and just wait and see. It’s very hard to predict these things.
It was intriguing that some of the highest death rates in China appeared to be men as well as just the elderly. And that might be because there’s a high rate of long term smoking. So almost like an endemic lung pathology within that community that somehow exacerbated the disease.
In Australia, we may find that there are different populations that are the most at risk. So we know, for example, the virus uses a receptor to get inside of cells that is a protein present on cardiac tissue.So people with known cardiac conditions may turn out to be at higher risk. And in a non-smoking type country, maybe people with existing heart conditions will turn out to be the most at risk.
In America, we might find something quite different. What we might find is it’s more socio-economic. Maybe people without health insurance. Maybe people who are homeless and live on the streets will turn out to be the most affected because they have limited resources to be able to get treatment and they can’t afford treatment.
So I think each country will be different. We mentioned earlier Italy has one of the highest fatality rates at the moment. That may be because they actually have a large number of people within their population that are over 65.
So it might actually be not that surprising given that demographic. It might also be that they’ve had an outbreak of seasonal flu at the same time. We don’t know whether one type of virus limits the other. It’s quite possible you can get co-infections and that’s where people get the most sick. I think it’s going to pan out in different countries slightly differently. I think it’s a case of watch this space.
Read more: Novel coronavirus: what does analysis of the first patients tell us?
Professor Wallach: The other thing, just on the rate of transmission. What they go according to is the people who show up to the clinic.
And the results from a study done in China indicate that they may have only picked up 5% of the people that have COVID-19. So it’s about 20-fold more than actually recorded because it’s mild and very little symptoms.
The other thing that’s becoming a little disconcerting for scientists is there may be two strains of the virus. And the initial outbreak, as I said, the mortality rate was very high. It could be the virus, in order to transmit, went through a mutation that aided its transmission. And I would hope that would probably occur in pandemic flu.
Maybe a little less pathogenic than the original strain was. I was surprised to see at the beginning such high mortality and then how it dropped down. That’s the results also put online by the CDC. And we’re looking and following that.
Dr Sedger: Yes, viral evolution is a really key topic at the moment. We think RNA viruses and the rate that they mutate is much higher than DNA viruses. And it’s really a factor of how quickly the virus mutates and how quickly a person’s immune response is able to effectively control the virus replication.
So the viruses that sometimes persist longer in a community are not necessarily the most virulent. So what we might also be seeing is a population, a group within the population who get a less severe disease, maybe even asymptomatic, but that may, long term, prove to be the bigger — how could I put this? — the bigger population of viruses that exist within that community.
Sunanda Creagh: And Michael would like to know: if I could shrink myself down to microscopic size and watch a virus invade a cell, what would I see?
Dr Sedger: Well, a virus is not like a bacteria. A bacteria is a entity all of its own, and it can replicate and make another copy of itself and grow on a nutrient source. A virus, however, is sometimes called a non-living entity because outside of a human cell, it can’t replicate. It just exists as an entity.
A virus is essentially just a piece of DNA, which is, you know, in the nucleus of every cell. It’s what our chromosomes are made of. So it’s either DNA or RNA surrounded by a protein coat and sometimes it’s also a lipid-based envelope outside of that, again.
The virus will somehow encounter a cell. And for respiratory viruses, it’s largely by us inhaling water vapour droplets. They may contain hundreds of viruses. Those viruses then will attach or be exposed to our respiratory epithelium.
If the virus can actually bind to the respiratory epithelium cell, then it might get inside. Once inside, it may or may not have the capacity to actually undergo replication, but it has to uncoat from that protein shell. Then the nucleic acid, the DNA or RNA has to make another copy of itself. Then all the genes that are in the virus have to get expressed as proteins.
They then reassemble into a new viral particle and then the virus will get out of the cell. Sometimes it lyses (breaks) the cell, sometimes it will just buds out from the cell and leave the cell intact. And that’s what a virus is. That’s why we, some people call them living or non-living because they can only replicate in inside a cell, a host cell.
Professor Wallach: And it’s not like viruses have a will. So if they want to do this, it’s just part of evolution.
Dr Sedger: Yes, I’m never a favour of the argument you sometimes see people say “it’s warfare, it’s the virus vs. immune system!” But there’s no will involved, it’s just capacity of life to replicate itself.
Read more: Best-case scenario: 3000 Australians dead from COVID-19, says expert
Sunanda Creagh: And Deidre writes in to say, I heard on the radio today that half the population is likely to get this. And with, say, a 1% death rate, the body count will add up. And I wondered what you thought of that.
Professor Wallach: So there was an announcement actually by Angela Merkel preparing Germany for 70% of the population being infected. [Dr Sedger] may say the number is lower, I don’t know, until we build up herd immunity.
The question of the mortality rate, as I alluded to before, I think based on what again, CDC and WHO are writing, is probably overestimated. Some estimate the mortality rate as being much lower. That’s not to say… every death is a family and has to be looked at and be concerned about.
So again, I think and would like to hope that as we develop new vaccines, as we develop drugs, as we develop approaches to quarantine people, test them, keep them at home, isolate them, we’ll get the mortality rate under control.
And I’m going to express an optimistic view. This world has amazing capabilities of doing amazing science. And if we apply it and work together, I think we can control this problem.Dr Sedger: Yes, absolutely. I would endorse that. And I’d say that the mortality rates at the moment simply reflect who is being tested. And it’s primarily people who are turning up with symptoms.
But we’re now beginning to appreciate that there is a large number of people who could be quite asymptomatic, who are never tested. This virus will certainly have infected many more people than will be tested.
And if we did have surveillance of every single person being tested, then there’s two questions here: Are you testing for the presence of the virus? If they’ve had virtually no symptoms and not a big illness, you might not find the virus.
But if we test for the presence of an immune response to the virus, we would truly know how many people have been infected. And then we could get a true estimate or at least a much closer estimate of what the mortality rate really is. So at the moment, there’s hyperbole.
Sunanda Creagh: And Catherine asks, what is the likelihood of transmission through using a public swimming pool?
Dr Sedger: I would think quite small because a) the virus would be quite diluted in a swimming pool. Secondly, swimming pools are all treated with chlorine, for example, and chlorine is a very effective anti-viral agent. You’d have to drink a lot of swimming pool water to get the virus.
Professor Wallach: I agree with that.
Sunanda Creagh: Candy would like to know: there are conflicting symptoms lists circulating on Facebook. One says it starts with a dry cough and if your nose is running, it is not COVID-19, which I suspect is incorrect. Can we please have an accurate list?
Professor Wallach: So, again, the major symptoms are, in fact, the cough and shortness of breath and fever. But, it’s not to say it’s not possible that you’ll have also upper respiratory effects.
The virus goes into the lung and attaches to the alveolar cells or to the cells that make up our air sacs and that help our breathing. And it has to get there to really cause this disease.
So if there’s upper respiratory involvement, which includes sneezing and runny nose, et cetera, it’s probably not the main effect of the virus.Again, I would say if you see that somebody is sneezing and wheezing and and that’s it, it’s probably an allergy, but it does frighten people. I was on the train this morning, and I know if I, God forbid, sneezed the whole train would empty out pretty quickly.
Dr Sedger: You know, we’re just coming into winter. And actually, it’s a really good question because at the moment, what’s building is a sense of fear. But we must keep in perspective that there will also still be the normal seasonal cases of flu.
So just because somebody sneezes or has a sore throat does not mean that they’ve got COVID-19. And we need to make sure, I think it’s really important that we don’t stigmatise people who have symptoms because it may not even be COVID. And we’re all at risk from any respiratory tract infections and already have been for years.That’s not a new thing. We just need to keep things in perspective.
Sunanda Creagh: A question from Karen: can you catch it twice?
Dr Sedger: Normally, I would have said no, because we imagine that there’s a good immune response that will then provide you protection from re-infection. That’s what our immune system does.
But this is a new virus. We don’t yet fully understand how our immune system clears it. We don’t know whether virus can remain for a longer period of time. I would would say, though, that there are only a few cases of people who have been treated, appear to have recovered, they’ve gone home, they’ve then had another relapse.
There’s only a very few number of cases that have been like that. So for all intents and purposes, I don’t think that’s something we should fear and it’s not something we’ve seen with the previous SARS outbreak in 2003.
Sunanda Creagh: And Tim would like to know: how will quarantine work in a family?
Dr Sedger: Yeah, it’s interesting, isn’t it? We think of quarantine as being away from work or away from public places. But really, if you have been infected, then the people in your family are as at risk as your work colleagues would be at work. Again, I think it’s about just common sense. Don’t share food utensils, wash your hands, don’t keep touching your face and your mouth and your nose. Get rid of tissues in a nice sort of clean manner. It’s about minimising transmission.
Professor Wallach: Let me just add to that, that all the data indicates that children likely will only get very mild symptoms, if at all. So if you’re a family member and you’re worried about your children, this is one time that you can be happy about this. All the results so far indicate that children aged zero to nine, there’s not been a single death.
Dr Sedger: Whereas what we do know is the elderly appear to be more susceptible to a more severe disease. So that’s where if I’m sick, it’s better not to go and visit my grandparents or something like that. That’s where quarantine within the family works in a practical sense.
Sunanda Creagh: And just to finish up, is there anything else that you’d like to add?
Dr Sedger: Yeah, I think I’d just want to finish with a really positive note. I mean, we live in an amazing era of medical research and science.
Within a very, very short period of time, parts of the virus had been sequenced. We now track the virus in its entire sequence. We know, we have clinical trials for the drugs. We have people working on vaccines. We have epidemiologists better understanding the disease susceptibility within a population.
I mean, we learn a lot from other existing outbreaks of infectious diseases. And I remain positive that, you know, the medical and scientific community working together will be able to solve this. I’m quite confident that there’s a really strong response.
That’s not to diminish that people have died and it’s been tragic. But we live in an era where we’re exposed to infectious agents and we are getting better and better at controlling most of those infections.Professor Wallach: So I’ll just add and put in a plug for a program I’m very much involved with called Spark working with people at Stanford. We established a program for exactly this time, when there’s sudden outbreaks. And the program now involves 23 countries and around 70 institutions, all working together for outbreaks of Zika, Ebola and now coronavirus.
It gives me great hope that, apart from what you said, we’re now working together collaboratively like never before. We’re putting our egos outside and we’re saying we have social responsibility to do better.
Certainly, in the case of a pandemic.
And we’re doing it. And we’re very proud to be able to say we have 15 projects going on now collaboratively that we just formed over the past two weeks, together with our colleagues all over the world. I also believe in a very bright future.
Current Australian coronavirus statistics - 16 March 2020 Total: 249 confirmed cases, including three deaths:
- 1 in ACT
- 111 in NSW
- 46 in Queensland
- 19 in SA
- 6 in Tasmania
- 49 in Victoria
- 17 in WA
- 10 of those were associated with the Diamond Princess cruise ship
Source: Department of Health, Coronavirus health alert
Nobody wanted to shake hands with Morrison in the bushfire zones anyway.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bushmiller
That bothers me too, Bob. It makes no sense when you can still go on a train with 1000 others.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
Or Scott Morrison's religious mob could host the Hillsong gathering on the two days before the 500 people limit went onto gatherings. Funny how it was announced on the Friday and did not come into force until the Monday and Hillsong was on the two days in between.
And why wait until there's a crowd of 1000 gathering at the gates of the Grand Prix sneezing and coughing on each other before cancelling the event?
Just came back from my GP today - in the waiting room I sat as far away as possible from everyone 3 seats minimum in all directions. 10 seats away from the bloke with the red eye/nose and box of tissues.
The GP sent me off to get an Xray of my broken ankle so should find out in a couple of days if all is OK
The Radiographer reckons it's healed but he will send thru an official report to the GP in a day or so.
Then I can dump the 'effing moonboot - HOORAY!
I brought my own pack of hand sanitiser but didn't need to use it as the surgery and the Radiographers has packs everywhere.
I did my hands 6 times and didn't touch anything while I was there.
After nearly three months of doing nothing I'm rather desperate to get out in the park with the dogs and regain some fitness if I'm going to eventually get this virus.
Interesting to hear my GPs take on COVID19.
He reckons anyone over 60 with pre-existing medical conditions like mine should be taking COVID very seriously and isolate themselves immediately from all social situations except for immediate family.
Anyone over 70 without any pre-existing conditions should also consider that - something along the lines of what the UK gov is considering.
He said the government is doing too little, too late, especially as far as seniors are concerned.
Oh well, we both been stuck at home for the last 5 weeks (6 weeks for me) so we've had plenty of practice and should be able to just carry on as usual.
When are the govt going to learn basic maths?
The current doubling rate of confirmed (let alone unconfirmed cases) cases now looks like its just 3 days - we're no different to anyone else.
It matters near NIL what the number of infections are today
If its 300 today, its 600 by the 19th, 1200 by the 22nd, 2400 by the 25th etc,
4800 by the 28th
.
.
20000 by early April
OK the number of recoveries will get greater but even then there will be more than the total numbers of infected Chinese by the school holidays.
When are they going to do something serious about this?
Waiting until Friday to do the next step is just nuts.
Crown Casino is where I lose all of my money and catch most of my flu's and colds. It's a really gross place because there are so many people there touching things, pressing things, coughing all over the screens/cards/chips. So gross. I'm glad they recognize this too. Here is an email I received from Crown Casino Melbourne today.
If there was going to be an epicenter for a virus to spread from, I would be betting that it would be Crown.Quote:
Crown’s first priority is the safety and well-being of its employees, guests and the community.
In light of the current circumstances surrounding COVID-19 and following consultation with the Victorian Government, Crown Melbourne has initiated the following social distancing measures, effective immediately:
- Every second gaming machine and electronic table game has been turned off
- Distancing at seated table games between players, including no standing players
- Restricting the number of players at each stand-up table game (Roulette, Big Wheel and Sic-Bo) to five players, and
- Restricting the number of patrons in individual food & beverage, banqueting, theatre and conference facilities to 450 persons with a prescribed maximum density
- Hotels will continue to operate as per normal
The above measures have been approved by the Victorian Chief Health Officer.
Crown Melbourne has also implemented other precautionary measures, including the provision of alcohol-based hand sanitiser and more frequent and strengthened cleaning measures.
Crown continues to recommend that our guests regularly use the hand sanitisers located throughout the complex. We also ask you to advise staff if you are feeling unwell while on site, as we have medically trained staff to assist.
If you are experiencing flu-like symptoms we politely ask that you not visit the complex.
Crown will continue to closely monitor the situation and follow guidelines from relevant health authorities.
Thank you for your cooperation and understanding.
So BobL. What should be done and for how long? There was/is talk of waiting two weeks then closing down the schools, Unis, etc. for 2 weeks which will then be followed by the 2 weeks holidays. Is that sufficient or is it too late?
It seems our government is still running with cash is king mentality.
If only they saw what other countries had done(or not done).
I’m sure Hillsong was a big hit on the weekend tho.
Cheers Matt
From this point onwards I would be in favour of:Quote:
Originally Posted by Lappa
- Except for Aussies, Complete suspension of OS air travel, and reduce the public event social limit numbers to 10, immediately, yes you can have 10 people in a small snack bar or bar for a few days.
- Uni/schools shutdown within 24 hours, don't wait and see if this has an effect - it won't be much anyway
- Full social (restaurants, bars, non life support stores, etc) lockdown by next monday See below,
- A completely Chinese/Italian style lockdown (at least in Sydney) should probably the following week.
- The Gov could look at least look a selective shut down first - Sydney looks like the the go at the mo, but Brisbane and Melb are not that far behind. Would have to be tomorrow. Not going to be popular but might even give the bushfire people a chance to recover?
- Upgrading testing and chasing down possible infectees, like the Koreans, Taiwanese and Singaporeans are doing.
- Don't wait for people to reinforce nutter science on the interest - Single point official What'sApp or similar mobile updates for the whole population twice a day like the Singaporeans are doing.
- Mobile phone tracking of infectees - draconian but emergency powers would get around that.
- A proper media campaign that doesn't look like a pukey hospital ward wall.
Unfortunately they don't have enough testing chemicals to do this properly.
Like the 6 known infected people who went to a wedding on the weekend - if even a couple of these had been tracked before hand they might have been stopped from attending.
This takes $$ and possibly some draconian measures but for every $ not spent on this in the short term will result in months of hospital chaos that no amount of $$ will fix.
Why haven't we got 10000 people work on tracking and testing today?
The authorities keep talking about flattening the curve but not really doing much towards that.
When the decision is made to flatten it then at least do it seriously and within 24 hours - too many pollies in the way worried about the economy.
It's easy to say these things in hind site but something like this would have helped.
A 500 person limit is almost useless.
The Media adds are too crappy and too late.
The incoming travel quarantine was 3 weeks too late, it's already being demonstrated that this sort of thing is only going to have small impact on slowing the infection rate and any effect is only going to show up as a slight blip in the infection rate in ~2 weeks time.
Except for Aussies returning, there should have been no air travel two weeks ago which is also when ed institutions should have shut down.
I hope they remember for next time because there will most definitely be a next time.
Well predicted BobL. Newspaper heading this morning.
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