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Sure, but look at NZ - they are far smaller and less densely populated but appear to be ahead of us.Quote:
Originally Posted by Beardy
WA being far enough away from the east coast and with relatively few cases could well stay out of a full lockdown for some time lockout but I hope not.
BTW for those that not aware, if anyone thinks I'm paranoid I'm 65 with a 4 co-morbidities. If excrement hits the ventilator I won't even get close to one..
Now your talking population numbers.Quote:
Originally Posted by ian
The statement of yours I questioned was “Say 1.5 times the number of confirmed cases in Canada. “
On that basis 218/197 = 1.1 not 1.5.
Top comment: “Never wipe against the grain” :UQuote:
Originally Posted by doug3030
I regret to say I misled you folks with an earlier post (#194, p13) regarding the shortage of loo roll in Millmerran. The visitation by brisbane people buying up our supplies has now been debunked (we spoke to an employee in one of the supermarkets). New supplies arrive each day (but are bought up fairly quickly) and we are out of supplies at the moment because it is the weekend.
So apologies for that. I should have double checked the source: It would have been a good story if it were true :- !
Just to climb back onto the main issues of why the corona virus is more insidious than some of it's related ancestors (sars, bird flu, swine flu etc). A recent example on one of the cruise ships concerned a couple where she was hospitalised for three weeks and was as sick as a dog. her husband was later tested positive also (not surprising really), but he displayed no symptoms and was not ill in any way whatsoever. Nevertheless he was a carrier! Much more worrying. Following on from that the woman was tested clear and then became ill again and re-tested positive. The disease appears to be biphasic: Another disturbing aspect.
Coronavirus symptoms — Australian couple from Diamond Princess explain what it's like to have COVID-19 - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
Clearly there are disturbing aspects of corona virus that were not there for other flues.
Why are we more concerned about corona virus than climate change? A couple of things come to mind: Sickness is a tangible state that we can see with our eyes and it attacks something very personal: Our body. CO2 and the consequences towards the climate on an every day basis are largely invisible. Possibly the most significant difference however is that the wealthy are not immune to corona virus and as well as the possibility of becoming sick their wealth may also be king hit if the share markets continue to decline.
Regards
Paul
Its not just the wealthy. How about those retired and on superannuation? Hopefully they can ride it out.
"Possibly the most significant difference however is that the wealthy are not immune to corona virus and as well as the possibility of becoming sick their wealth may also be king hit if the share markets continue to decline."
It's not just the wealthy who will be king hit if the share market continues to decline, it's anyone who has any investments (or savings) at all. This includes most Australians, who have super. Already we have seen major commercial effects from the fallout from the current situation (Flight Centre to close 100 stores) and that's just the beginning. If thousands of people are put out of work by this situation it's not going to recover overnight.
By way of redeeming myself (from my failure to check a source as above) you may like to view this piece by "thejuicemedia," who are infamous for pointing out the lies and misinformation propagated by the government on a wide range of topics in the most irreverent manner:
YouTube
Thejuicemedia had a particularly good year in 2019 and this clip explains both the philosophy behind it and the production methods. Wonderful stuff to my mind: Just be sure not to get in their bad books.
YouTube
Sanctioned by the Ministry for Satire. Enjoy. :wink:
Regards
Paul
PS: Language warning. I would add that if you are offended at the beginning but manage to view the complete clips you won't be by the end.
Based on the experiences of the husband and wife on the cruise, a two week lockdown wouldn’t work. Maybe a month or more would be required if this biphase is happening. No economy could withstand the effects of a total shutdown for a month or more.
I don't think the source was too bad but it highlights the problem with referencing any source consisting of one person.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bushmiller
The same applies to any reporter, journalist commentator who throws thing in our of left field.
The most reliable sources we are going to have to learn to trust are those that come out of a consensus groups of suitably qualified persons. Like CDC or WHO or our own net of health. None of these will be perfect either, but in groups like these the over cautious members of the group tend to be mitigated by the other members.
I worked on an international science panel for chemistry for about 20 years and it was most reassuring to see how they operated. The group I was in has been going for 120 years and included such luminaries as Marie Curie back in the 1920s. (BTW I don't consider myself anywhere near a luminary - more like a "burnt out candle") The most reassuring thing about this group is that in 120 years of operation it has never been found to be wrong. This shows the extreme caution taking with reviewing published work and handling measurement tolerances. BTW we had a number chinese and russian scientists on the panel and found them to about as right and wrong as anyone else on the panel.
I have no doubt that epidemiology is MUCH more difficult than what I was involved with but these people are way ahead of anyone else (especially an unqualified person) which is why we (and governments) should take notice of them.
I have serious concerns regarding the WHO President. He was more concerned about offending the Chinese by countries blocking entry to Chinese travellers ( pointed the finger at Australia) that he was about controlling the disease by imposing these restrictions. He actually inferred it was racist.
I wouldn't be giving give the experiences of a coupe on a cruise ship much credibility.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lappa
A two week lockdown should be long enough to determine
a) if its doing anything at all
b) how much longer to lockdown
c) to assess lifting the lockout on some areas but not others
This is exactly what China and Korea have done. And it looks like it has worked.
Interesting to see a world wide shut down of all Apple stores and a reopening of all Chinese Apple Stores.
So that fact that she appears to have been re infected or the virus has laid low then recurred isn’t worth a consideration?
its now March 15 and Wuhan was locked down on the 23 Jan. A lot longer than 2 weeks.
Souh Korea didn’t lock down but tested 250000 and has the potential to test 15000 a day. Do t see a lot of testing I. Australia.
i received an email from work to state that if I show ANY symptoms at all, to self isolate, see a doctor etc. etc.
However I can only stop a student from attending if they have come from China, Italy etc recently or have been in contact with someone who has tested positive. There is nothing in the instructions to state they if arrive systematic I can refuse them entry. That’s the NSW Govt. for you
Possibly it relates to the competence of individual supermarket managers.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bushmiller
Local Woollies ran out of toilet paper last Friday week. Next day, Saturday, a semitrailer delivered a very large load of toilet paper. The local branch manager did three things:
- Fully restocked all shelves,
- Set up mid-isle stands of toilet paper, and
- Set purchase limit of one pack of toilet paper per customer per visit.
The "problem" has gone away.
Are you referring to the gentleman who's first response to the bushfires was to pray .... and the fires immediately got worse? Did Satan respond?Quote:
Originally Posted by Lappa
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
So true. I want to hear from the Director of Public Health.
That is very different from what scotty from marketing says that the Director might have said.
The difference is credibility.
sorry Lappa, my badQuote:
Originally Posted by Lappa
I meant the comparison to refer to the relative population size between Canada and Australia (which is 1.5) in comparison to the number of confirmed cases which (as of this morning in Canada) stood at 218 -- is approximately 1:1.
Of course all that is now historical.
As of 22:50 UTC on 14 March, the number of confirmed cases in Canada is 244, plus 5 probable. source Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): Outbreak update - Canada.ca
BTW, the Canadian data is up to date as of 5:50 PM Eastern Standard Time
As of 20:30 UTC on 13 March, there were 197 confirmed corona virus (COVID-19) cases in Australia. (as of a few minutes ago, the number of active cases in Australia has not been updated for at least 24 hours.)
In Canada updates on positive test results are published twice daily.
Ian.
Now 250 and the Govt is meeting to consider closing schools
unfortunately, I think the director has been nobbled.Quote:
Originally Posted by GraemeCook
Just spoke to my sister who lives in the USA.
Her words for the situation over there are “its a clusterf#$k”
First Trump said it was a hoax by the democrats, then “it’s no worse than the flu” and now they dont have enough test kits to even test those who show symptoms.
One lady went to hospital last week to get tested and it cost her $3000.
Now Trump has declared a National Emergency but she reckons its way too late and she’s a retired anesthetist
To my mind the time has come for absolute bipartisan status in Australia. If the effect on the economy is to be minimised (it clearly cannot be avoided) and if the well being of the the populace is to be maximised, severe strategies have to be put in place.
Albanese has in principle declared he will support this with the proviso that there had better not be any repetition of the sports rorts episode. Now I don't have too much regard for the leaders of either party, but they should not be fighting each other or demeaning each other in any way. This type of catastrophe requires solidarity and a positive plan of action. Saying that the ban on mass gatherings will only come into force in two days time is ludicrous. Sure, it is going to be financially extremely hard for many, many businesses including sporting groups: Indeed, sporting groups may be among the hardest hit.
Regards
Paul
so, at 250 confirmed Australian cases, the situation is approximately 50% worse than that in Canada.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lappa
and Canada is limiting gatherings to no more than 250, while Australia is sticking to 500
Maybe BobL can advise the statistics behind those numbers
Lappa, it is quite interesting to see how various countries are responding.
When the Diamond Princess saga was at its peak, Japan had the capacity to conduct only 200 corona virus tests per day.
South Korea is now testing 20,000 people per day.
The cost of a test in Japan is ¥2,500 or approximately Aus$35, and gives results in seven hours; soon to be reduced to 15 minutes.
So the question is - who do we test? Those with symptoms and those eno have been in contact with someone infected seems a good choice. Then what’s to say someone who has been in contact may show negative one day and positive the next (if that’s possible).
Do we test all and sundry? Seems like a waste of resources. It would be interesting to know who are they testing in South Korea.
Sounds like the USA is a basket case re testing kits.
Whats the Govts policy in Australia re testing - will they limit it to a select group or groups?
Coronavirus Australia live coverage: Massive surge in COVID-19 cases in NSW, QLD
Schools stay open. Anyone entering Australia from overseas must self-isolate for 14 days.
March 14th Canada had 257 cases and 1 death.Quote:
Originally Posted by ian
Also, to make the Australia rate 50% worse than Canada’s, based on the previous Canadian figure you supplied of 218, there would have to have been 327 cases in Australia to be 50% worse than Canada
Now 272 and schools and unis to remain open
I'm using a different metric to you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lappa
Canada's population is about 50% greater than Australia's.
As of earlier this evening Canada had 245 confirmed cases (including 1 death) plus 5 yet to be confirmed.
Australia has about the same number of confirmed cases (and deaths) -- give or take a few.
So on a population basis, testing in Australia has detected 50% more positive cases than in Canada.
On a total population basis, the expectation would be that the number of positive cases in Australia should be around 170, not the observed 250 (approx).
Does that make sense?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lappa
Current ruling is WA is that only the following persons will be tested
- have fever (temperature of 37.5 deg or above) or respiratory illness AND
- can provide evidence of recent overseas travel (for example, airline ticket or passport stamp) or have had close contact with a confirmed COVID-19 case.
I think this is inadequate because its a reactive rather than proactive response and still enables unknown exponential growth of COVID19 in the community.
Instead of waiting for the next crop of COVID19 people to show up, all persons who have been in contact with anyone that has tested positive should be tested immediately.
This it is what the Koreans have done up to 20,000 people a day
I believe Australian authorities do tell confirmed COVID19 cases to tell anyone they have been in contact with to self isolate but they don't test them all as they don't have enough testing chemicals.
This proactive process is feasible for up to a few hundred cases total but after that tracking and testing requires exponential amounts of person power and resources and it may be impossible to recover from this position, that's what's happened in Italy. The only semi-effective thing that can be done after that point is full lockdown
I saw Dutton on TV the other night and my temperature rose, sharply.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
Should I be tested?
Another interesting point from my sister is that even if you have symptoms they don’t have the testing kits available to test you.
Its the local authorities and State Governors who are proactive (rather than waiting for Trump) in making decisions to close down schools and socially isolate.
In NSW it appears to be the opposite with Gladys and her Pips doing sweet FA
No - I was referring to our Chief Medical Officer - one of the Three Stooges on the TV the other nightQuote:
Originally Posted by GraemeCook
Italians, who probably have proportionately as many racists as we do, are having to eat a bit of humble pie when 2800 cartons of donated surgical masks turned up recently from china, plus today a team of respiratory specialists with 40 respirators have arrived. It will be interesting if they do the same for Australia or the US.
FWIW we cancelled a large (30+ persons) family gathering today because the host, (a sister with no symptoms) flew back from Sydney 7 days ago. If my sister is still OK we will have it next week so we can more safely invite our 92 year old mum.
Where are those figures from?
What if your sister is infected but showing no symptoms? (which doesn't appear to be uncommon)Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
Sorry, everyone, I was trying to be too cute and outsmarted myself. You will have to click on the stuff below to blow it up to readable size.
Attachment 469991
Attachment 469992
Good point, all one can do is minimise risks and there still won't be any hugs and kisses, not just this sibling but all of my other relatives as well, and I still might not even go. My son and his family have agreed that there will be no hand shakes, hugs and kisses for a while.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
Edit: Replying to Graeme's post.
Figures, statements, numbers without sources are meaningless.
To which post/s are you referring?Quote:
Originally Posted by kungsleden
Your last post did not mention which post you were referring to either?
Corrected. :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Lappa
OK, that sorts post 237. What about post 233?:D