Future of the Australian Electricity Market

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Originally Posted by woodPixel

Trouble being with this analogy, is that the electricity market is dominated by a handful of titanic oligopolies who are known to be Ruthless Bastards.

Consumers are also "price takers". There is no real competition to choose from. ...

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Very similar to the electricity sector.

In the dairy industry there are:

1. Fairly large number of dairy farmers who are price takers.
2. Limited number of dairy processors who dominate the market nationally,
3. Very limitted number of dominant retail chains nationally, and
4. Very large number of end consumers who are also price takers - Muggins.

The Government said that they wanted vigorous competition in the dairy industry:

1. The processors agreed and dealt vigorously with the farmers,
2. The dominent retailers agreed and dealt vigorously with Muggins, and
3. The processors and retailers then vigorously arranged sweet heart deals between themselves.

Economics 101: Competitive markets do not work where there are oligopolies or oligopsonies.

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Originally Posted by woodPixel

Heavy industries in Australia’s regions could cut emissions by 80% and create a jobs bonanza, report says | Business | The Guardian

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I've always wondered where these "job bonanza's" come from with regards to renewables.

a good portion of them need minimal input from humans and can only assume the might come from the manufacturing/installing and thats it. the new gas plant at kurri kurri in NSW put out a statement that the need 13 permanent staff to run the joint. not exactly a job bonanza unless you want to fly in and fly out all over regoinal parts of the country trying to chase work.

not to say we don't need renewables but long term I can't see where these 1000's of jobs are meant to come from

Yeah; these “hundreds of thousands of jobs” are only during the construction stages and I believe they would have been all added up together as if all the projects are under construction simultaneously. In reality a massive proportion of that workforce will consist of the same core contractors moving from job to job. Once the plants are operational the full time site-based operations crew will be somewhat sparse… although there likely will be regular contractor engagement for their planned maintenance.

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Originally Posted by havabeer69

I've always wondered where these "job bonanza's" come from with regards to renewables.

a good portion of them need minimal input from humans and can only assume the might come from the manufacturing/installing and thats it. the new gas plant at kurri kurri in NSW put out a statement that the need 13 permanent staff to run the joint. not exactly a job bonanza unless you want to fly in and fly out all over regoinal parts of the country trying to chase work.

not to say we don't need renewables but long term I can't see where these 1000's of jobs are meant to come from

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haveabeer

That is exactly right. Mostly, a solar farm or wind turbine farm may require up to a hundred personel during construction and about a handful, mainly for maintenance and a little repair work once commisioned. Mostly people from shutdown stations will need to find work elsewhere. Unfortunately, that will often require shifting location.

Just as an aside, Millmerran Power Station is forecast to be one of the last to shut down around 2051. Having said that, I suspect it will be a little earlier, but almost certainly one of the last. Anybody wanting to see their careers out in the fossil fired industry should consider the backwoods of Queensland. :)

The reason for Millmerran's longevity is the cheap supply of fuel (sited on a wholly owned mine which, supplies only the station), modern technology in that it is a supercritical boiler, strategically placed in the grid to balance power and fairly efficient (Second most economic in the industry) all of which contribute to making it economically viable right up until the last moment. I once replied during a employee/manager interview to the question "How do you feel about working at Millmerran?" "If I have to work at a fossil-fuelled, dirty, carbon-emitting power station, Millmerran is the one I would chose."

It wasn't quite the reply the manager had been programmed to expect, but at least nowadays he follows the lawyer's maxim of never asking a question to which you don't know the answer.

Regards
Paul

Just like the title of the thread... we'd better make sure we arent getting into THIS particular pickle: South Africa'''s Eskom implements worst power cuts in over two years | Reuters

Here is a bit more enthusiasm for the future:

A better heat engine | MIT Technology Review
Thermophotovoltaic efficiency of 40% | Nature

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Engineers at MIT and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have designed a heat engine with no moving parts. It converts heat to electricity with over 40% efficiency -- making it more efficient than steam turbines, the industrial standard. MIT Technology Review reports:The invention is a thermophotovoltaic (TPV) cell, similar to a solar panel's photovoltaic cells, that passively captures high-energy photons from a white-hot heat source. It can generate electricity from sources that reach 1,900 to 2,400C -- too hot for turbines, with their moving parts. The previous record efficiency for a TPV cell was 32%, but the team improved this performance by using materials that are able to convert higher-temperature, higher-energy photons. The researchers plan to incorporate the TPV cells into a grid-scale thermal battery. The system would absorb excess energy from renewable sources such as the sun and store that energy in heavily insulated banks of hot graphite. Cells would convert the heat into electricity and dispatch it to a power grid when needed.

The researchers have now successfully demonstrated the main parts of the system in small-scale experiments; the experimental TPV cells are about a centimeter square. They are working to integrate the parts to demonstrate a fully operational system. From there, they hope to scale up the system to replace fossil-fuel plants on the power grid. Coauthor Asegun Henry, a professor of mechanical engineering, envisions TPV cells about 10,000 feet square and operating in climate-controlled warehouses to draw power from huge banks of stored solar energy.

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Wow!! 19 pages of discussion. People getting a real charge out of this

Attachment 514048 https://mobile.twitter.com/goldingcartoons

Attachment 514049 https://mobile.twitter.com/goldingcartoons

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Originally Posted by GraemeCook

I think that you have been extremely perceptive, Ian, and from a distance of 10,000 kms.

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I'm no longer on the other side of the very big lake.

I'm actually back in Oz for a few months.


Perhaps it's time I changed my signature block

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Originally Posted by ian

I'm actually back in Oz for a few months.

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Now there's a chap who likes punishment. Lives through a Canadian winter with solid precipitation dropping down every other day, to come back here, just in time for a super-wet probably a little colder than usual winter.

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Now there's a chap who likes punishment. Lives through a Canadian winter with solid precipitation dropping down every other day, to come back here, just in time for a super-wet probably a little colder than usual winter.

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You forgot the bit about the end of his sojourn - he then goes back to another Canadian winter - even colder than Canberra.

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Now there's a chap who likes punishment. Lives through a Canadian winter with solid precipitation dropping down every other day, to come back here, just in time for a super-wet probably a little colder than usual winter.

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it's comparatively warm, at least for me.
It's the wind that is currently concerning me.

It's rather blowy in Mosman tonight.

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Originally Posted by GraemeCook

You forgot the bit about the end of his sojourn - he then goes back to another Canadian winter - even colder than Canberra.

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I'd say so.

Overheard in a local bakery "minus 35 is bit below my comfort zone"
The guy was heading out to do a bit of ice climbing and waiting for it to warm up to minus 29 [degrees C]

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Originally Posted by ian

It's the wind that is currently concerning me.

It's rather blowy in Mosman tonight.

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Today was awful up here. Much less rainfall than the previous two days, but it was fine rain which is so easily blown horizontal...and it was.

A couple of weeks ago there was a crisis in the Electricity market, which resulted in AEMO stepping in and capping the maximum price. The strategy worked in the short term and gradually the cap was lifted. My colleague told me that a couple of days ago the spot prices again went ballistic and the cap ($300/MWhr) was was re-instituted. We are not out of the woods just yet.

Is anybody in the corridors of power listening?

Regards
Paul