...and I sold a camera on Friday for $910. Once again not an essential purchase.
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...and I sold a camera on Friday for $910. Once again not an essential purchase.
I thought it was an awesome effort to put that much thought into replying to a tongue-in-cheek post. :2tsup:Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
Australia doesn't use the oxygen helmets we saw in footage from Italy. They work differently to the common oxygen feed up the nose used here. The helmets are at positive pressure and forces a bit more O2 into the lungs than just trying to breathe it normally. Either way I guess with a helmet you would get at least a few more hours before a ventilator is absolutely required?Quote:
Originally Posted by A Duke
I figure we are all going to catch this one eventually, just like the common cold, and being a corona virus, just like the common cold, a vaccine is not going to happen. I just hope they've got the best treatments worked out by the time it comes around to my turn. I also fear just like the common cold it is going to come back regularly, I'm skeptical of herd immunity. I understand social distancing works, I know I've had far fewer common colds since I retired and didn't have as much association with colleagues with young families with school age germ factories! But I also know I really don't want to continue living in isolation mode for too extended a period.
"I figure we are all going to catch this one eventually"
Out of the mouths of babes...
An interesting read:
Is the Virus on My Clothes? My Shoes? My Hair? My Newspaper? - The New York Times
Bob. I told the lady in question, Mrs Edna Skrimshank, about your post thinking she'd be pleased to have been mentioned. Unfortunately, she was very upset at having been singled-out and identified on a public forum in a way that everyone in NZ would know who you were talking about.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
I've a feeling you'll be hearing from her solicitor...
Pete
Some information on the ventilator controversy:
Why Ventilators May Not Be Working Well for COVID-19 Patients | Time
Time had attempted to contact Cameron Kyle-Sidell, without success. He was probably either treating patients or sleeping so no surprise there and should not be taken as suspicious. This is his U tube video:
YouTube
and another interview:
YouTube
Make up your own minds, but I would suggest we remember that Covid-19 may not behave like other "flu" viruses. Whatever the verdict, it looks to be a genuine report and not a tabloid fantasy.
Regards
Paul
Today's spreadsheet attached.
Only real notable point is that Australia continues to slide down # cases list, dropping 6 positions to 38.
USA and Europe continue to hog all the top (worst) spots with 75% of cases and 86% of deaths, even though they only have 11% of the world population.
clear out. Regarding Mrs E. Skrimshank and your request for photos, I contacted the dear lady this morning.
Unfortunately, since being so brutally outed by BobL, she has been inundated with such requests - some of them rather saucily asking for photos of her wearing nothing but her signature pill-box hat - and as you can imagine, such requests are rather upsetting to a lady of a certain age and a long-standing member of the WI.
Someone did manage to snap a short video of her entering the local pharmacy to buy surgical stockings and they posted it on EweTube - our local video platform - where it immediately 'went viral' (if one is allowed such an expression in these trying times).
Since then, she has appointed an agent to handle such requests and is demanding a fee. So, if you will send me NZ$20 I will obtain a photo and forward to you,
Pete
Ohhhh...such wit!Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
Yes, but what sort of wit?
We have discussed some of the issues confronting Covid-19 in the US.
Firstly there is the unusual stance of the the president in the face of statistics, which I feel sure he would quote if it suited him. Some have declared that he is evil, but it is not for me to say such things. Then there is the attitude of the people and their undying (that was an ironic pun) belief that the second amendment gives the the right to go and do whatever they want no matter the consequences. There is the red-neck brigade who despite rising numbers of cases want the lockdown curtailed, and if the pix are an indicator, are prepared to go to war over it. Finally (maybe not finally, but this is a far as I am going) there is this little pointer, which one of my BILs sent. Initially my interest wandered straight off, but then rapidly returned as I saw the point. It is short. Just over a minute.
Attachment 472168
Wow! I don't think they stand a chance unless they dramatically change their thinking. The worst is still to come for them.
Regards
Paul
Not sure if this will load properly. See how I go.
Many thanks for posting those links, Paul.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bushmiller
No question, those links are the real deal.
It's rare to have something like that second video which gives such an insight into how the ED specialist in those Covid-19 hot spots are struggling to work out what is exactly going on with this virus and the best way to deal with it in their critically ill patients. This 'novel' virus is behaving so differently that they all feel the need to take time out to regularly videoconferencing with each other to share their experiences and ideas so that they can learn from each other. Smart move. Smart people.
It also struck me how exhausted they all looked, but if I end up in an ED with this virus I would want someone like those people managing my case. I always feel more confident with doctors who know that they don't know.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bushmiller
Amen.
If wit were sh** I would be a sewerage farm.Quote:
Originally Posted by FenceFurniture
:wink:
A bit like the old saying "Those that can, do; those that can't, teach".Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilS
The modern equivalent is "Those that can, do; those that can't, post about it on youtube, facebook and forums". :rolleyes:
First I will qualify this post by stating that I worked for some years as an economist on economic policy, and economists almost always work with incomplete and out of date data. I am comfortable with known ambiguity; timeliness is almost always a preeminent requirement. I quite realise that this is anathema to those from a scientific or engineering background that love the precision of all those decimals. But one works with the data that one has.
This started as a simple post exploring the significant differences between coronavirus infection rates and death rates (especially) in Germany and the United Kingdom.
Attachment 472170
The diffeence in infection rates is, prima facie, explainable by Germany's 30% larger population, but then there is that massive difference in the reported death rates. At first I thought that the greatly lower death rate in Germany would be attributable to their far higher test regimes, meaning that may cases would be detected earlier, treated earlier while they were still mild, and cured.
Attachment 472172
Germany has been testing at a far higher rate - between 4 and 5 tests per thousand per week and by the 19-04-20 would have conducted almost five times as may tests as the UK per capita - circa 26 tests. (And about 60% more tests per capita than Australia.)
This very extensive testing seems to be paying off in the comparatively low death rates. Also note that Germany has land borders and its close proximity to France, Italy, Switzerland, Belgium and Holland - all of whom have high infection and death rates. UK is an island so its borders should be more defensible.
But wait, there's more ... and it gets worse.[posting split for size reasons.]
Thanks Doug. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by doug3030
Regards from Perth
Derek
There have been many reports suggesting that Britain may be understating its infection rate by perhaps 20% but it is difficult to find reputable sources for this assertion. I am not saying it is wrong; just that it requires better substantiation.
But many sources state that the British figures are collected by National Health Service from hospitals that it controls. This means that the NHS only collects data on infections and deaths that are in hospitals. Specifically, it does not collect data from care homes or from the wider community. And given Britain's low level of testing (20% that of Germany per capita) there must be many more cases undiagnosed in nursing homes and the community.
This supports the argument that Britain is significantly under-reporting both infections and deaths. But by how much?
A group of academics at the London School of Economics analysed the coronavirus data for a range of European countries and found that a very significant number of deaths from coronavirus actaully occured in care homes.
Attachment 472174
Their statistics show that approximately 50% of coronavirus deaths in the five European countries incurred in care homes. If the same ratio applies in Britain then it suggests that the progressive death rate has been understated by about 16,000 and that around 32,000 have already died from the virus. If the British death rate in care homes is only half that in Europe then the revised death figure is still 24,000.
These figures are catastrophic. And I do not think there is any evidence that British nursing homes are substantially better managed than continental ones.
And I have not attempted to quantify those cases of coronavirus that remain in the community, where people are treated in their homes, and the unfortunates who die undiagnosed.
The British Office of National Statistics (ONS) has published some preliminary data which report significantly higher numbers than the NHS but, as ever, there is a substantial time delay. Stats offices always favour accuracy over timeliness! The bane of economists - "I needed that last month!"
I hope I am wrong. But something smells.
Does that mean that a crafts person who is teaching/passing on their skills to an apprentice really is not a crafts person because they can’t “do” because they are teaching?Quote:
Originally Posted by doug3030
..... : ~)Quote:
Originally Posted by fencefurniture
I reckon that unless a country REPEATEDLY tests a sizeable proportion of their population, the so called measured infection rates are are a poor indicator of the real rates. This then makes comparisons between infections and deaths are a bit of a waste of time. If known infection rates are especially high it's not good enough to perform one test today and expect that to count for more than a couple of days because some one negative today can become positive tomorrow. In these cases people have to be repeatedly tested for a proper handle to be obtained on rates of infection, no badly affected country is yet close to doing this.
I'm starting to look at all these numbers with a large dose of salts, For a whole lot of reasons the numbers of deaths being reported are also becoming increasingly unreliable. The Chinese numbers were recently revised but they don't really know the number of deaths or they're not saying. Some countries are not counting anyone with underlying medical causes and some don't bother counting bodies in the streets. Some countries don't count A death as being due to COVID19 unless a specific positive COVOD19 test has been confirmed on the patient before they die. Many people especially the third world distrust doctors and modern medicine so look to alternative medicine so they don't get counted in ether infections or deaths. Even in first world world countries like the Netherlands, where they have a long history of home palliative care, many of the deceased don't even make it to hospital or a testing centre and there's simply too many deaths for autopsies to confirm COVID19. My guess in in Chermany you VILL BE TAKEN TO ZE HOSPITAL! I also wouldn't put it past some countries not counting Non-citizens.
Bluetooth turned off = presumptive criminal actQuote:
Originally Posted by FenceFurniture
GPS location turned off = presumptive criminal act
leaving home without your mobile = presumptive criminal act
BTW
I understand the newer (i.e. since abut 2016) GPS chips are accurate to about 2 metres.
It's a crap app.
Not only does the phone have to be on, it also only runs in foreground ie has to be unlocked. So you head off for your walk or hop on the bus and you listen to you fave music and 60 seconds later it locks itself hence no data collected until you unlock it.
The google/Apple App runs in back ground so works when the phone is locked.
To all the armchair critics regarding testing and virus management.
Test kits don't just come from thin air, so early testing was only possible and is still only possible with what is around to use. Testing here as well as overseas was aimed at those with potential exposure or symptoms as there were insufficient swabs AND testing paraphernalia etc. to carry out more expansive testing. This is still the case.
It is easy to criticise lack of testing but governments can only use what they have.
This virus was not expected, so it takes time for all PE gear, masks, ventilators to be produced and sourced.
An understanding of logistics may assist all armchair critics in understanding what has occurred and is still occurring.
Finally to those predicting gloom, don't underestimate the capacity of the US to ramp up production of all gear needed, nor of China to assist globally as well.
As I said in the original post it's just a saying. If you haven't heard it before you probably younger than me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lappa
If I had said "A stitch in time saves nine" would you go out and count them? Are there ANY old sayings that were meant to be taken 100% literally? Not that I know of.
I am looking forward to the end of the bushfires, climate change debate and coronavirus outbreak in the simple hope that this forum can go back to the friendly and helpful place it used to be, if it ever does. All we have now is some, not all, people actively looking to score cheap points as if enforcing their opinions on everyone else will somehow save the planet. NEWS FLASH - It won't make a shred of difference. All it is doing is driving others away from what used to be a great forum.
I’ve been aware of that saying for many, many years and I’ve always thought it was crap as some of the people I’ve learnt the most from were great teachers which fantastic skills.
The problem is I’ve only heard that saying uttered by people who couldn’t be bothered passing skills or knowledge on or didn’t have the skills to do so.
I've heard the saying "if you can't do, teach" many times, often used to describe trade school teachers. However, I post to Youtube, Facebook and the forums, and I know I can't do. That's why I'm a fan of the saying "fake it till you make it!" :D
I'm not so easy on the authorities especially regarding PPE.Quote:
Originally Posted by Greg Ward
The last practice for the pandemic was 2008 - they knew it was coming sooner or later - too distracted by GFC and political bickering.
Critical stockpiles? all let run down or let go out of date.
We're lucky we've got to where we are.
Well now you have heard it from me. Some of my best memories of my Army career were when I was instructing in Army or Joint Service schools or with Australian Army Training Teams working overseas in other countries training their military.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lappa
Teaching is very rewarding.
This one was a couple of years before my start date.
Must say I'd never heard of it before.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/18/china...ntl/index.html
C'mon Doug, if that ever happened what would all these old codgers do all day? "Debating" these issues gives most of them a reason to get up in the morning. The secret is not to take it too seriously :-) As many have said, it won't make an iota of difference.Quote:
Originally Posted by doug3030
Paul - I have also been watching the stats from Norway and comparing them to Germany and the UK. Putting aside Bob's misgivings (for good reasons) about the validity of the stats, there are some similar inferences that can be drawn from Norway.
They have had the highest testing rate per capita of any large country at 26,224/m, with a case load of 1,310/m, but a death rate of only 30/m. That's better than Germany with a testing rate of 20,629/m, a case load of 1,739/m and death rate of 55/m. And, the UK with a testing rate of only 7,101/m, case load of 1,769/m, and a death rate of 237/m.
Besides their high testing rate, Norway also went early and hard with its restrictions. Their excellent health system may also be another factor in their better performance.
And, of course, NZ is an even a more outstanding performer with a testing rate of 17,897/m, a case load of 299/m and just 2/m deaths. NZ and Norway share similar distributions of their populations that may have contributed to their similar success.
False negatives aside, much like NZ, I'm more confident with the stats out of Norway than many other countries.
Does anyone really care?Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilS
Apparently not...Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
Of course there are people who care about the stats in Norway, Germany and the UK.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
The real question is if anyone cares that some bloke in lockdown in the Adelaide Hills with no ability to influence the outcome, is comparing them.
Thanks NeilQuote:
Originally Posted by NeilS
I looked up the cases for Norway and it was 7108 with 165 deaths. (Good old Oz is doing pretty well compared to almost everybody).
Who cares about a small Scandinavian country with only 5,367,580 people? Probably at least 5,367,580 Norwegians for starters and one Australian ex-pat from Millmerran and his Czechian girlfriend. Actually there are two more Australians in Millmerran who care quite a bit about their son. Luckily he is in the very far North, Just a few kilometers away from the Russian border. They went for a snowmobile ride over Easter to the border area much in the same way Aussies in better times go for a picnic.
Who cares? Aaaaargh.
"Never send to know for whom the bell tolls. it tolls for thee."
Regards
Paul
Well on an upside I think it is fair to say our authorities have done a great job in minimising the viral impact on Australian soil. Their tactics have proven to have been the right course to date.
How we move forward from here will be interesting
I'm not a fan of politicians of any stripe but I'll give credit where it's due. This one came right out of the blue. Sure, with the clarity of hindsight we should have been better prepared. SE Asia had recent experience with SARS and recognised the potential earlier but it hardly touched Oz. Asians have been wearing face masks for yonks, way before this crisis. I always thought it was slightly peculiar.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
The national cabinet has done a terrific job as has most of our population listening to the experts and doing exactly what they recommend. And we're winning hands down. The balance between peoples lives and their livelihood is a terrible responsibility. How much better off we would be if they tackled the other threats facing us with the same urgency and vigour? I guess the consequences have to be shoved in their faces before they realise they have to act.
Fear is a great motivator.
mick
p.s. I'll be in the shed if you want me.
When people start to talk about the constraints of the lockdown and the economic consequences my reaction is to point to other countries and ask if we would like to be in their position? America, UK, Germany, etc ( I was going to list them, but there are too many).Quote:
Originally Posted by Glider
As Beardy said:
"How we move forward from here will be interesting."
Too much too soon and we will be back to square one.
Regards
Paul