Quote:
Originally Posted by doug3030
Melbourne ..... East-West Link ..... ????????
Melbourne social demographics raise two questions:
- Why would anyone in the East want to go to the West?
- Why should anyone in the West be allowed to go to the East?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by doug3030
Melbourne ..... East-West Link ..... ????????
Melbourne social demographics raise two questions:
- Why would anyone in the East want to go to the West?
- Why should anyone in the West be allowed to go to the East?
Who still reads albrechtsen???? Or the cohort of news ltd "journalists" huddling to the right of rupert and his commercial interests.Quote:
Originally Posted by FenceFurniture
I must be getting old, but I can remember the young Rupert who thought that to create an interesting paper you had to employ both Karl Marx and Ghengis Khan. Remember when the Australian's stable included the likes of Paddy McGuinness and Mungo MacCullum and Pickering?
Quote:
Originally Posted by woodhutt
????? How much cotton is grown in Canada?
Now, now, not nice.:DQuote:
Originally Posted by GraemeCook
As I understand it Graeme they're made from a specific type of woodpulp which Canada exports to the US.Quote:
Originally Posted by GraemeCook
Pete
Mitch Garber, an investor and member of the Order of Canada, wrote: "Today Canadians are deeply disappointed in @realDonaldTrump's actions regarding the availability of @3M masks in Canada. It's worth noting that these masks are made with Canadian produced pulp, & Canada will not withhold that pulp, because that is not how countries act."
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????Quote:
Originally Posted by GraemeCook
Not being from Melbourne, could it be for the continued supply of toilet rolls?
Regards
Paul
It's not so much the east or the west that are the problems - it's the bits in the middleQuote:
Originally Posted by GraemeCook
https://www.canstar.com.au/wp-conten...bs-resized.jpg
Really interesting case study of SARS-2 transmission in a Chinese restaurant
Early Release - COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020 - Volume 26, Number 7—July 2020 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC
A1 was the infector - the other red circles were the Infectees - note dates at which affected diners were picked up.
It looks like the AC (which was recycling air in the room) was able to drag SARS-2 from A1 back to infect C1 and C2.
This is almost certainly droplet transmission.
Attachment 471517
I wasn't going to comment on the East West link but since others have I'll chime in with what I know.Quote:
Originally Posted by GraemeCook
The link did not proceed because the cost would never be recovered by the projected usage as it would only generate 20% of the operating cost of the tunnels, so the secret agreement reached by the then government was for all major roads between East and West would also be tolled. This included the roads leading onto the Westgate bridge, the old Princes Highway, the Western ring road and a few others.
All these roads would be tolled at the same toll cost as the East West link tolls, effectively dividing the city in two.
Peter.
Recently I spoke with our local pharmacist about this. He is a compounding chemist. I had a joke with him that there are enough meth-head junkies in the suburb that we could press them into service brewing stuff up!Quote:
Originally Posted by woodhutt
He wasn't amused (probably heard that 50 thousand times over the years).
He stated, resignedly, that even IF we could get all the right gear and right people in the right place, that ALL the precursors used for literally everything are made either in China or India.
These precursors are apparently not easy to make. Bits for various drugs come in from a dozen places, apparently. Most of the stuff we use here is assembled in Malaysia/Philippines.
He said China/India have an economic stranglehold on production and that no pharma would dream of touching that area as it would get killed by price. Even with this plague, he said that it would take years to crank up any local facility to the levels we'd need.
In his estimation, not do-able.
His advice, as he was shaking various boxes, would be to try like hell to get off anything and everything you can... cos it might not be on the shelf in 6 months... or ever....
..
..
(I need to loose weight, get fit, eat properly, sleep well, drink more water, loose the depression, drop the blood pressure, fix the cholesterol.... loose 20 years of age...) sigh.....
I enjoyed reading this article in the SMH (currently free access) that I thought highlights the best of us.
A force for good: how the coronavirus crisis is sweetening our collective tune
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilS
Thanks, Neil.
So rare to see main stream media publishing good news stories these days.
What precludes person A1=> crockery/utensils => to staff hands when clearing items from table => to new crockery/utensil for table B and C => to persons on table B and C.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
With no reported staff infection that reduces the likelihood of that transmission pathway.
However, it is proper etiquette in China to lift your eating bowl (not the serving bowls or plates) close to your mouth while eating. It is not unreasonable to think that droplets could be deposited on the bowl while eating and that these could then be transferred to a staff member's hands when removing eating bowls and chopsticks from the table, then transfer the virus onto the new crockery/utensil for table B and C. The research letter reports that the infected persons on all three tables were present during an overlapping period. So, this is an alternative explanation to transfer via the air conditioning. I'm not sure if this alternative explanation may not have cultural/political sensitivities and was not raised for that reason or it could simply be that the order of table service, etc, may have eliminate this explanation, but that was not reported on in the research letter.
The cruise ship phenomena has given aircon transmission some legs, but I would have thought that food service (east or west) is just as likely to be the explanation, plus all of the other possibilities like stairway railings, lift buttons, etc, etc. are just as likely.
No chance of cross infection when a few mates and myself used to go to Chinese restaurants 40 years ago.
We’d put the full esky down next to us and a few locals would ease out the door.
Once we had a few and Al would start laughing the rest would soon follow.
We weren’t swearing or arguing, just bloody loud.
No droplets were ever exhaled but the peas and carrots had been known to be sprayed from moving vehicles. If you got the window down in time.
I just sit and grin when the missus and I are in a restaurant nowadays and some young una are having a good time.
Karma I reckon.
Some Good points Neil,
Maybe if it was staff transfer one might also expect diners elsewhere in the restaurant to be affected?
Yes, and there were 83 customers in total spread over 15 tables and of those only the customers on 3 tables became infected.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
And, the weakest part of the proposition that the staff could be the vector is that none of them contracted it themselves, which is highly unlikely given how contagious this virus is.
If the virus can be spread through aircon that does have significant implications for aircon systems within hospitals. From my only experience (not me) of the infectious diseases units in ICUs, they have neg air pressure systems that isolate the air from escaping to other areas of the hospital, but they have very limited capacity. Yet, another good reason to limit the spread of this virus and hospital admissions.
We did LOTS of testing in our clean rooms regarding the transfer of dust particulates from operators to various parts of the lab.
Counteracting that was that we had to control exposure to nasty acid vapours in other parts of the labs.
Instead of cross flow we used positive pressure down flow chambers to create air curtains to separate people from samples and negative pressure down flow chambers to separate acid vapours from people. We also used transparent plastic curtains and clear polycarbonate sheet to separate some spaces. It got very complicated really quickly.
We only needed about 100 fpm to protect samples from the small amounts of dust generated by a full PPEd operator but for the acid vapour air curtains we used up to 800 fpm. I'm pretty sure they don't worry too much about air flow in hospitals.
I believe plane air goes down over passengers into slots in the floor before it's refiltered..
Maybe that's what wait staff need to wear. Even better, they could operate a pair of those arms you see in Nuclear labs. :DQuote:
Originally Posted by BobL
Sounds like Trump might be gearing up to fire Fauci. Some failed politician in CA tweeted something about time to fire Fauci, and Trump retweeted it. Fauci will be answering questions on C-Span at 10am AEST tomorrow.....if he hasn't been sacked by then.
Can't have people contradicting the despots/tyrants edicts.Quote:
Originally Posted by FenceFurniture
They are doomed.
Aspects of your suggestions are not as silly as it sounds.Quote:
Originally Posted by FenceFurniture
Just as wood working fine dust can be controlled by the use of ventilation the same could be applied to restaurants and I reckon I could set up a restaurant whereby the transmission of any breath base bug could be very significantly reduced.
1) diners wash/sanitize their hands when entering
2) Social spaced seating goes without saying - diners 1.5m apart. Maybe even only 1m apart depending on the efficiency of 2)
3) Vertical airflow curtains - a bank of HEPA Filters covering the whole ceiling dumping clean air down over diners to vents in the floor and recycling it back to the HEPA filters.
4) Chefs, kitchen hands and wait staff in PPE - apron mask, gloves and face shield.
5) Air flow curtains between chefs and food being prepared
6) Food covered immediately after cooking and uncovered only at the table in front of diner.
I'm surprised no one has set such a thing up - could be a good marketing opportunity.
The PPE could be theme styled eg punk, goth, renaissance, space age, grunge, wild west, etc could even be fun!
BobL, a dining experience like that sounds a little unromantic :)
Not exactly the most romantic night down the local French restaurant tho.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
But I certainly get were your heading Bob.
Cheers Matt.
:UQuote:
Originally Posted by BobL
...Bomb Squad, Knights of the Round Table, Ninja, Dr Plague, ICU, Survivor, ?,?, ...
...Ned Kelly, Motocross, Scuba Club...Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilS
Dunno, my understanding is that latex, leather, masks and whips are highly desirable by some people?Quote:
Originally Posted by Simplicity
BTW SWMBO is thinking of doing a mask with 3D embroidered/crocheted corona virus models handing off the front of the mask?
Geez, missed that obvious one (for some people!)Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
Today's spreadsheet attached.
Points to note
- I do not trust the figures from China, Iran, Russia, or Brazil. Maybe not Japan either.
- The Stans are now starting to appear in the 1000-2000 cases list
- Algeria doesn't quite have 2000+ cases but their death rate is top of the chart at 15.8%
- Spain, Italy and France are all slowing on both counts, but still have awful double digit death rates, as do UK, Belgium, Netherlands
- Germany's death rate is <¼ of the other big Euro nations
- Australia continues to slide down the cases list (-5 to 31) and is at or near the bottom in the other metrics
- Europe has 46% of world cases but 66% of the deaths. Euro nations with 2000+ cases are 7% of world pop.
- USA has 36% of world cases and 20% of the deaths. USA is 4% of world pop.
- The entire rest of the world (89% of world pop) has 19% of world cases and 14% of the deaths.
- If you don't have C19 then the safest place to be is probably right here (or NZ). IPM is relatively low at 250/mill, and if you do get it the death rate is one of the very lowest. All other countries with a lower IPM than Australia have a higher death rate, except Russia (and that will change).
been dreaming up money making ideas....
1 cheap pens engraved with Ruby Princess
2 coffee mugs...the same as above.
3. ditto teaspoons
I think I am on a winner, esp at next year's cruise ship markets
I think you might find Carnival management will be re-naming that vessel at the first opportunity.
mick
Or scuttling it. The cruise industry will take a long time to recover, if ever.Quote:
Originally Posted by Glider
Because of things like lack of openness/public accountability, insufficient testing, and the fact they are mostly early on in the game, any data from Africa, Central and South America, Asia (except for Singapore), Middle East, or Eastern Europe would have to be suss. In many of these places there's bugger all medical services and people already dying constantly for all sorts of reasons with not a medical person in sight let alone one that would be able to confirm a death as attributable to COVID19, so my guess is we'll never know what their real COVID19 death rates are. In the UK and the US additional people are dying in retirement homes and many of these are not being officially recorded as COVID19 deaths.Quote:
Originally Posted by FenceFurniture
Doesn't really leave much of value to compare with does it?
Thanks for the spreadsheet and that analysis, Brett.Quote:
Originally Posted by FenceFurniture
Everyone outside of China doubts their data. Browbeating the initial messenger didn't help there.
The following early release article has some data analysis that will be confirmed or otherwise when more data becomes available from other countries. Any fudging will start to show up then. It's a bit techo, but from what I can see the key reported findings are:
- The doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days.
- The (median) number of other people an individual infected was 5.7 (broad confidence level of 95%).
- Results suggest: Active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
"How contagious SARS-CoV-2 is in other countries remains to be seen."
Early Release - High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 - Volume 26, Number 7—July 2020 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC
Quote:
Originally Posted by doug3030
Hell. Many years ago I lived in Parkville and Carlton. Never realised I was in "crime central".
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glider
Do you think Carnival Group and its management will survive?
In January its share price was above US$50, but it tanked to $7.97 on 2 April, and the company must still service debt in excess of US$11.5 billion.
But Uncle Donald can be generous with taxpayer money to billionaire mates!
Yeah, look the spreadsheet is just for a bit of a ball park. WRT "not trusting China, Iran, Russia, or Brazil." I reckon they are deliberately feeding us BS for the usual reasons. Other places that you mention will have inaccurate figures because of insufficient testing and so on, but not necessarily because of BS.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
I was talking to my ISP a few days ago. That is Internode, and their call centre is in Cape Town (and I must say that they are extremely polite and very easy to understand, unlike most other call centres, who may be extremely polite). Antonio (a good SA name) had to do some things which took a while so we got chatting about C19. I was saying that I expected that once it took hold in Africa it would quite possibly spread like wildfire. He disagreed to some extent because "we've had lots of epidemics in Africa and there is a certain preparedness for them". I just hope he's right.
I very much doubt they'll go broke. Their assets reported as at 2019 are USD45 billion, revenue USD20 billion and a gross profit percentage which would make any CEO drool. They are the biggest player in the cruise business with a stable including Carnival (obviously), P&O, Holland America, Costa, Cunard etc. BTW, they pay no tax, probably as a result of their interest bill.Quote:
Originally Posted by GraemeCook
Whoever's holding their notes would be crazy to call them in. In normal times, it's a very sound business and things will return to normal in time. The market has panicked, as it's wont to do. It would be good buying at current prices but don't expect a divvy for a while.
mick
Ummm . . . not so sure about that there are still a lot of large population countries i do not trust, India, and Indonesia, and any of the "stans" are just some of examples as they have to continually be making themselves out being better than they are. The numbers for any country with (semi) despots in power also have to be queried, eg Venezuela, Saudi A, Turkey, even USA etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by FenceFurniture
Wait until there is free money /AID going towards the problem and then we'll see the professional beggars come out of the wood work and claim more numbers than they actually have. Tragic really, we'll get played along like suckers - again.
coming to you live from Japan...
It's weird here. Everyone knows about it, it has gotten VERY quiet over the last couple of days...but not really the kind of response I would have expected. They are pretty good at natural disasters, and have plenty of hospital beds, plus a huge manufacturing industry that is exceptionally good at getting things done...domestic logistics second to none.
We went through the TP craze about 2 weeks before you guys. It has basically settled down, now hand soap and sanitizer are the harder to find things. Not impossible, but some places temporarily sold out. No real issue with food or anything like that. Early run on rice and pasta to some extent, but that all blew over quite quickly. Schools are sort of closed, not much in the way of public events, even sakura time was pretty tame. It's weird but sort of normal as well. I went in to the city to get some bits and pieces and there is still people around, though much reduced. Police didn't seem bothered by people wandering around...
I have plenty of the essentials here. Gin, whisky, beer, Italian salami, so overall am quite content.
Well I still don't know anyone with the virus, nor do I know anyone who knows anyone with it! That's not surprising because here in Queensland only one in 20,000 people that you're likely to run into on the streets has it. And then you have to catch it from them! Pretty good odds I think. I don't wear a mask, I don't possess any hand sanitizer, and I don't have the virus. If it wasn't for the heavy handed police presence (who appear to be immune to it) I'd be out there on the streets!
But what's the next move? I can't see any alternative to herd immunity but it would take a brave person to suggest we go down that route...
Fortunately we will soon be able to see how that works because Indonesia has no choice. There is no way they can enforce social distancing, they can't afford the testing (even if it was available), and they don't have the health system to support a catastrophe.