CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

Has anyone done the sums?

In WA in terms of motor vehicles deaths we are down 25% over the same time last year.
Murder rates are also down.
The numbers of people with the ordinary flu (hence those dying from ordinary flu) has dropped by 2/3rds.
ETC

I really am beginning to suspect that the COVID-19 lockdowns in AUSTRALIA have overall reduced the numbers of deaths in the community rather than increased it.

Apparently the numbers of home burglaries are down but commercial burglaries are up.
DV is up about 5% but general alcohol fuelled violence is significantly down.

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Originally Posted by BobL

I really am beginning to suspect that the COVID-19 lockdowns in AUSTRALIA have overall reduced the numbers of deaths in the community rather than increased it.

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That may be,

BUT.

What would have happened if we had done a Trump?

We would now have 50,000 cases (not 6000) and 1800 deaths (not 56). I have done an extremely rough pro rata on america having ten times our population ( I appreciate it may be closer to twelve times). That would not make the comparative figures look so good.Interestingly there has been an increased incidence of speeding infringements and I am not certain, but I think the road deaths are not quite so good over on this side of the desert.

As regards conventional flu there could be at least two reasons for and improvement in figures. Firstly the self isolation is working equally well fo all types of flu and alternatively the Covid-19 is getting them first, although with 56 deaths Australia wide I am doubtful of the second scenario.

Regards
Paul

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Originally Posted by Bushmiller

We would now have 50,000 cases (not 6000) and 1800 deaths (not 56). I have done an extremely rough pro rata on america having ten times our population ( I appreciate it may be closer to twelve times). That would not make the comparative figures look so good.Interestingly there has been an increased incidence of speeding infringements and I am not certain, but I think the road deaths are not quite so good over on this side of the desert.

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Sure. I'm not saying we don't keep doing what we are doing but trying to find some real positives in purely the Australian Context ie to show it's not all one way.
Some economist may even be able to put a financial cost on what the lives saved cost.

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As regards conventional flu there could be at least two reasons for and improvement in figures. Firstly the self isolation is working equally well fo all types of flu and alternatively the Covid-19 is getting them first, although with 56 deaths Australia wide I am doubtful of the second scenario.

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I agree, the numbers of deaths so far in AUS (with all respect to those that have died) are more or less in the statistical noise.
I think basic hand hygiene may be even more important than we think. Perhaps this is a lesson we can take post COVID-19 - ie carry/use sanitiser, make available more public places to wash hands, revise/improve ventilation in cruise ships, restaurants, shopping centres.

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Originally Posted by BobL

Has anyone done the sums?

In WA in terms of motor vehicles deaths we are down 25% over the same time last year.
Murder rates are also down.
The numbers of people with the ordinary flu ... has dropped by 2/3rds.
ETC

I really am beginning to suspect that the COVID-19 lockdowns in AUSTRALIA have overall reduced the numbers of deaths in the community rather than increased it.
....

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WOW, that is one hell of an insight, Bob.

To try to put that in perspective, the most recent data that I can find for relevant Australia-wide death rates are for 2017-18 and are:

• 375 Homicide,
• 3,046 Suicide, and
• 1,145 Road fatalities.
• 4,566 Total of Above, (equivalent to 87.8 per week).

So far, there have been 6,238 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 54 diagnosed deaths - ALL those deaths have occured in the last six weeks.

I concur that it is highly feasible that the overall death rate has been reduced by COVID-19.

4510.0 - Recorded Crime - Victims, Australia, 2018
3303.0 - Causes of Death, Australia, 2018
Road Trauma Australia—Annual Summaries | Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics
Coronavirus (COVID-19) current situation and case numbers | Australian Government Department of Health

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Originally Posted by BobL

I think basic hand hygiene may be even more important than we think. Perhaps this is a lesson we can take post COVID-19 - ie carry/use sanitiser, make available more public places to wash hands, revise/improve ventilation in cruise ships, restaurants, shopping centres.

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I think so Bob. I've been particularly watchful of shaking hands and public surfaces in the winter months for years now. Like Boris, for a long time I was in the business of shaking hands sometimes several times a day, and I'd often invent needing a trip to the toilet.

I had a (non) "Tradesman" camped here for a few years - always seemed to be working on something around here. He'd go down the back for a slash and then want to either shake hands or handle my tools or whatever. Used to give me the creeps. Shaking hands with someone like that....you may as well be holding their old fella. :puke:

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Originally Posted by GraemeCook

I concur that it is highly feasible that the overall death rate has been reduced by COVID-19.

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Well...yeah...but it's not much of a way for a country to live. My point is that a statement like that is grist to the mill for you-know-who to take out of context.

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Originally Posted by woodPixel

This little number chugging ever upward makes the whole "100k dead" thing seem all rather trivial....

World Population Clock: Daily Births - Worldometer

We are a plague:

World Population Clock: growth

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Thank you WoodPixel. Hopefully you will be more successful at having people listen to you than I ever was...

Some good news. The current Coronavirus doesn't seem to mutating in any significant way that would change its characteristics. The H1N1 outbreak in 1918 did, with disastrous consequences.

Researchers Look At How The Coronavirus Is Mutating — And Possible Consequences : Goats and Soda : NPR

Of potential concern are recent reports out of South Korea that some cases that had tested negative to the virus after recovery have since tested positive again. There are a number of reasons that may account for that, but it is too soon to know the significance of this, if any.

South Korea Reports Recovered Coronavirus Patients Testing Positive Again - The New York Times

Food for thought from today's Australian:

This week there were big black police cars marked Public Order and Riot Squad cruising around the quiet suburb where I live. It was 10.30 in the morning. There were barely any other cars on the road and no sign of any public disorder, let alone a riot.

There were seven rangers in my park the day before, more than the number of people exercising, or walking, or looking for a ray of sunshine. On the same day, a tiny bay — not a beach, and not far away from me — was locked up with 2m-high fencing so surfers couldn’t find refuge in the waves. Like the riot squad, the rangers and the men putting up fencing were all just doing what they were told to do by superiors.
Which is the same as the Morrison government. They keep telling us they are doing what their superiors, a panel of scientists, are telling them to do. Closing down businesses, large gatherings, sport, church services, culling funerals and weddings, curbing gatherings to two people, unless you are with family or friends you live with.
Two people? It wasn’t so long ago that governments were making room in their ministries for ministers for social isolation. Now, our governments are forcing the country into strict isolation, under threat of jail.
After only two weeks of this, many people are asking whether we are in a corner with no discernible way out. These sentiments are serious. They will get more serious in another week, two weeks, in another month. Talk of putting the country into “hibernation” for six months seems ridiculous. Can it really work?
We are told there is “no magic” to the highly hypothetical modelling released this week. It is guesswork then? If it is not guesswork, please entrust us with meaningful information that we can use to judge whether the cure is worse than the disease.
All we can see so far is an arms race of restrictions on how we live and work by state and federal governments. Let us award Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews first prize in this alarming competition for doing the most to close down an economy and constraining citizens. With that out of the way, it is time for the federal government, using real metrics rather than hypothetical modelling, to start planning how to reopen the country.
To be sure, listen to medical experts. And then add, weigh up and parse other information too. Information such as the economic costs of shutting down businesses, the long-term effects of unemployment, the costs of piling debt on to future generations, the ability of the country to deal with future crises from a position of economic weakness. Other information too, such as the costs of isolating millions of Australians, the mental health costs, the diseases that won’t be treated properly during this pandemic. And share it with us, even the uncertainty.
From chief scientists to premiers to police commissioners and the Prime Minister, they have all talked about the journey we are on together. Journey together? Short of our political leaders mapping an eventual path to recovery for us, and sharing that with us, there is no journey, only confusion.
There is not going to be a “snap back” to normality — that is the stuff of dreams. It is more silly language that must stop. But please, Prime Minister, take us into your confidence, trust us by telling us what you are watching to plan for recovery, so we can watch for the same metrics. There is a need for some meaningful light and hope for a country swathed in darkness, uncertainty and fear.
Trust is a two-way street. If you trust us with a way out, we might trust you. We will also have some hope, some light at the end of this tunnel. Not trusting us is surely the road to civil disobedience. It’s only been two weeks and people are getting tetchy, itchy, restless. Has the government factored this in? Have they worked out what might be the tipping point for when we disobey and hop over fences?
There are powerful forces working against a meaningful exit strategy. The first one is human nature, always planning for the worst, avoiding all risk instead of managing it sensibly. That is killing our economy right now. It is leading people to despair. The second equation is that no politician is going to be held responsible for the future suicide of an unemployed young man who has lost hope. But they imagine they will be held responsible for the immediate death of a 94-year old from, or with, COVID-19.
No wonder many feel we are heading on a path more dangerous than a virus. Alas, if we want the government to come clean with us, it is time for us to come clean with ourselves. There is no easy option here. We can’t build walls around the country indefinitely. We can’t keep 25 million people in lockdown without dreadful, deadly consequences. We can’t keep praying for a vaccine. What if there is not a vaccine for a year, two years, five years, ever?
Even building up immunity may not work. What if there is another virus just like this one next year, or the year after? The economy in ruins, how do we support another six million who would be thrown out of the workplace by shutdowns. The shocking truth is we may have to learn to live with a killer virus just as we live, and some die, from other killer, albeit non-contagious, diseases.
Before this pandemic is over, we are all going to have to address some tough ethical questions. Questions of life and death, questions about rationing scarce resources, and questions about who gets priority when there is only one parachute but two aircraft passengers. A virus that disproportionately kills old people raises awful, but unavoidable, questions.
But in today’s society, Pollyannas will claim that all lives are of equal value, and that everyone has an equal claim to our limited resources. It is heartwarming. It is also wrong.
How do you answer an 83-year woman who says her life is every bit as valuable as that of a teenager? If there is only one ventilator in the COVID-19 intensive care unit, someone has to choose between giving it to the old woman who may have many health problems and only a few more years to live, or to an otherwise healthy 19-year-old. Do we make them toss a coin? How do we decide, if not by judging which life has more value?
Steve Waterson’s sobering piece last weekend had one particular line that has stuck. Life is precious, but it is not priceless. That is a confronting reality. All sorts of dreadful decisions are frequently made that will save some lives and cause others to die. Who gets the liver transplant, an old man or a young woman? Why aren’t all very expensive lifesaving drugs offered free of charge? Because we do not have infinite resources, so we choose some which we will offer for low or no cost.
Maybe one benefit of the COVID-19 pandemic is that Pollyanna thinking will be put to bed. We can surely never again pretend that hard choices, about life and death, need not be made.
Janet Albrechtsen

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

I think so Bob. I've been particularly watchful of shaking hands and public surfaces in the winter months for years now. Like Boris, for a long time I was in the business of shaking hands sometimes several times a day, and I'd often invent needing a trip to the toilet.

I had a (non) "Tradesman" camped here for a few years - always seemed to be working on something around here. He'd go down the back for a slash and then want to either shake hands or handle my tools or whatever. Used to give me the creeps. Shaking hands with someone like that....you may as well be holding their old fella. :puke:

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Good to see the thread has lost none of its class while I've been away...

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Well...yeah...but it's not much of a way for a country to live.

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Sure, but washing one hands on a regular basis is not much of a change, let alone requiring a shut down or lock out.

I'm looking more at any overall positives and things we can learn from this - as my old professor used to say - when you "stuff up" or something unfortunate happens try to see if it comes with a learning opportunity.

I'd say a lot more workers and bosses may find they want to work more from home than in the past, reduced need for public transport, less densely packed roads.

I reckon more uni stuff than ever will stay on line.

More telemedicine - shoulda been done years ago.

What else?

I'd also like to think they review and upgrade air ventilation on planes and cruise ships.

Good old telemedicine.

YouTube

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Originally Posted by BobL

I'm looking more at any overall positives and things we can learn from this

What else?

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LOADS! Where to start.....I was actually discussing this with a mate this morning.

There must be huge savings that businesses will be able to make. Less real estate for offices, desks, parking lots, cafeterias etc etc etc. Massive savings there.

Suddenly people will be able to work from Melbourne, Perth, Bullamakanka for a Sydney based company, and fly in one per month or something for a day or three. Stay at a colleague's house for some bonding.

Less traffic on the roads
Less stress
Less pollution from vehicles.
Less consumption of "stuff" (tyres, petrol, work clothes, make-up, and so on)
More room on Public Transport during peaks.
More Teleconsulting of all sorts of things (legal, economics, sorry, accountancy

There must be an enormous amount of other stuff. Woodpixel will be good at nominating things.

Think of all those work computers that only get used for 8 hours a day in the old system. A massive share of them can go. All that office space real estate that is only used for 8 hours a day.

In short, and when we recover somewhat, I think commerce is going to severely disrupt itself for the better with a fundamental and seismic shift towards working from home permanently, with all that comes with that scenario. There will be opportunities that disruptors will make new fortunes from.

A huge casualty will be printed media in all its forms - people won't be travelling to work on the train, just for starters.


One thing is absolutely certain - there has never been a better time to become an IT professional - in all the associated fields of sales, service, programming etc. They are going to be in huge demand, travelling around to employees homes to do stuff to improve their efficiency.

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Originally Posted by BobL

...

I reckon more uni stuff than ever will stay on line.

....

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I agree with you, Bob, but the critical words are "than ever": its an accelaration of existant trend rather than something new.

A few years ago I went back to uni as a (very) mature age student and did another degree and found two major changes from my prior undergraduate and graduate experiences of c.40 years ago:

• all lecture theatres equipped with video cameras and all lectures were recorded and available online about ten minutes after each lecture ended, and
• Lectures tended to be faster paced and more information dense than I remembered.

Initially I found the latter aspect difficult, very difficult to keep up with notes until I realised that I did not have to. I could just listen to (and watch) the recording at whatever pace was best. I quickly came to appreciate this innovation.

Occasionally, perhpas 5-10% of lectures were "online only" - code for a rebroadcast of last years lecture (or earlier?). Almost all students, myself included, hated those "online only" lectures; there is a tangible benefit of being in a live lecture theatre. The perpetual grumblers attributed "online only"lectures to penny pinching by the university, but often it could be attributed to staff sickness, interstate travel, or something else.

Unfortunately, I think that you are correct.

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Originally Posted by BobL

Sure, but washing one hands on a regular basis is not much of a change, let alone requiring a shut down or lock out.

I'm looking more at any overall positives and things we can learn from this - as my old professor used to say - when you "stuff up" or something unfortunate happens try to see if it comes with a learning opportunity.

I'd say a lot more workers and bosses may find they want to work more from home than in the past, reduced need for public transport, less densely packed roads.

I reckon more uni stuff than ever will stay on line.

More telemedicine - shoulda been done years ago.

What else?

I'd also like to think they review and upgrade air ventilation on planes and cruise ships.

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How about in future we avoid this response "always planning for the worst, avoiding all risk instead of managing it sensibly"?

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Originally Posted by Tccp123

How about in future we avoid this response "always planning for the worst, avoiding all risk instead of managing it sensibly"?

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Hum . . . . . there's a lot of water still to flow under this virus bridge yet.
We still don't have enough experience or info about this virus to "manage it sensibly".
I'd say we have been on the lucky side so far and think we have only been able to "minimise it" so far because we have been on the hard side. Just a tad sloppier and we could easily be where Italy/Spain/US/NY are right now.

This virus is far from over and could still turn around and bite us hard.
Second wave, with limited/no immunity, no vaccine, and a population who think they've seen it all before and misbehave, and we'll be down there with the third world.

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Originally Posted by BobL

Hum . . . . . there's a lot of water still to flow under this virus bridge yet.
We still don't have enough experience or info about this virus to "manage it sensibly".
I'd say we have been on the lucky side so far and think we have only been able to "minimise it" so far because we have been on the hard side. Just a tad sloppier and we could easily be where Italy/Spain/US/NY are right now.

This virus is far from over and could still turn around and bite us hard.
Second wave, with limited/no immunity, no vaccine, and a population who think they've seen it all before and misbehave, and we'll be down there with the third world.

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There you go again Bob "always planning for the worst,"

OK so we keep lockdown in place. We don't have any new infections. It's six months from now.

What do we do then?

If this was a game of chess I'm thinking we'll all beginners, thinking one step ahead. We need to do more...

I am one in the throws of going from face to face teaching to online as a teacher, not a student. It certainly is a huge shift as we have had 2 weeks to get it up and running and that’s on top of mandatory training sessions and online meetings. Most of us will spend the Easter break at work. The one problem is equipment. Those who have been doing for ages have excellent videoing equipment so face to face sessions can be recorded then available for students - my sister was heavily involved in it at Uni so I am well aware of the gear they had. I would love to video some prac. demonstrations but it’s not easy to do with a web cam on the laptop.:D Mobile webcams etc are like hen’s teeth with 6 week plus waiting times.
We have to start from scratch and present online - no face to face. It’s all new technology to both us and the students. Trial sessions have shown vast difference in bandwidths which makes things like streaming videos truely problematic. So, we can provide links but most students have stated they have limited data so online sessions need to be kept short as do videos. We have talked to employers about providing the equipment at work but some of the smaller shops have pretty average equipment and small data allowances.
So, it’s going to be trial and error for the first few weeks while we sort out connection issues, get both us and the students up to date and familiar with the programs we are using. We do however have resource books, text books and some online companies that have excellent online resources so we should be OK.
Actually looking forward to it.:2tsup:

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Originally Posted by Lappa

I am one in the throws of going from face to face teaching to online as a teacher, not a student. It certainly is a huge shift as we have had 2 weeks to get it up and running and that’s on top of mandatory training sessions and online meetings. Most of us will spend the Easter break at work. The one problem is equipment. Those who have been doing for ages have excellent videoing equipment so face to face sessions can be recorded then available for students - my sister was heavily involved in it at Uni so I am well aware of the gear they had. I would love to video some prac. demonstrations but it’s not easy to do with a web cam on the laptop.:D Mobile webcams etc are like hen’s teeth with 6 week plus waiting times.
We have to start from scratch and present online - no face to face. It’s all new technology to both us and the students. Trial sessions have shown vast difference in bandwidths which makes things like streaming videos truely problematic. So, we can provide links but most students have stated they have limited data so online sessions need to be kept short as do videos. We have talked to employers about providing the equipment at work but some of the smaller shops have pretty average equipment and small data allowances.
So, it’s going to be trial and error for the first few weeks while we sort out connection issues, get both us and the students up to date and familiar with the programs we are using. We do however have resource books, text books and some online companies that have excellent online resources so we should be OK.
Actually looking forward to it.:2tsup:

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I feel your pain. I've worked in IT all my life and am very aware of the limitations both in terms of technical know-how and bandwidth availability to make this work. It won't be easy.

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Originally Posted by Lappa

some of the smaller shops have pretty average equipment and small data allowances.

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Re data allowance - in the context of a business it's chicken feed to go unlimited - probably $10-20 per month extra, and perhaps the same again to go up in speed if it's required. Not sure where NBN availability is up to though.

Maybe that's an area that the Fed Govt should look at - getting good equipment into small businesses and getting them on a good data plan. The Govt will need the country to recover as quickly as possible.

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Originally Posted by Tccp123

There you go again Bob "always planning for the worst,"

OK so we keep lockdown in place. We don't have any new infections. It's six months from now.

What do we do then?

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Even if./when a vaccine becomes available I doubt there will ever be zero new infections over say a weekly basis.

If we have zero community (unknown source) infections for 2 quarantine periods (ie total of 28 days) I don't think we need to wait for 6 months..
It will even be OK to have small numbers (1-2 per day) of "known" source infections during and even after that period as long as they are immediately chased up and relevant contacts are quarantined.

But we can't go fully open after that period it will have to be staged recovery otherwise if it gets out of hand again we'll have to go back to a hard lock down and the will really people off.
The staged reopening could follow the order of locking down with about 2 weeks periods between each stage.

We will almost certainly have to have a tight lid on OS travellers for the foreseeable future as it appears the rest of the world will be raging for some time with this thing. People can come in from select countries but need to quarantine for 14 days.

The hardest thing will be to decide on fully opening of large/dense people gatherings.

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Originally Posted by BobL

We will almost certainly have to have a tight lid on OS travellers for the foreseeable future as it appears the rest of the world will be raging for some time with this thing. People can come in from select countries but need to quarantine for 14 days.

The hardest thing will be to decide on fully opening of large/dense people gatherings.

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...or we go with the hard option?

I realise this won't be a popular option for the Pollyannas but is there a choice? I should add that I turn 70 in June and I have high blood pressure...

But I'll take the chance.

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Originally Posted by Tccp123

I realise this won't be a popular option for the Pollyannas but is there a choice? I should add that I turn 70 in June and I have high blood pressure...

But I'll take the chance.

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Not me. I have 4 co-morbidities that are currently just managebale, mum is 92, a sister and brother are recent cancer survivors, and another sister has a raft of health concerns.

Who’s got a lighter?
H.

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Originally Posted by woodPixel

This little number chugging ever upward makes the whole "100k dead" thing seem all rather trivial....

World Population Clock: Daily Births - Worldometer

We are a plague:

World Population Clock: growth

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Whilst I don't disagree with your sentiment, it will only be 100k dead with all the technology, medical expertise, N95 masks, gloves, lockdowns etc that are being brought to bear. If we were back in 1917 it would be a whole lot different.

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Originally Posted by Tccp123

Hopefully you will be more successful at having people listen to you than I ever was...

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I was only using it as a thought piece, not my political opinions (which I'm beginning to requestion, again!)....

The idea really wasn't about how "just" 100k died. This isn't great and I'm not suggesting our species could do with a fair hit to balance the ecological equation.... BUT, seeing that birth rate clock over.... bleep, bleep, bleep, bleep, bleep, bleep...

Its horrifying. If it were locusts, or T-rex's, or Donald Trump clones, we'd kill it with fire and without mercy.

Think about it. Every second a new human or 8 is popped out. Like some auto-factory.... a goddam Vonn Neumann nightmare.

A self-replicating machine of all-consumption.

After seeing the ASTOUNDING recovery of our environment in only a month (smog gone! Himalayas seen in India! Oceans recovering!) its more important than ever that we, as entire planetary species, learn from this episode and fix our sins against the environment.

JMO :)

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Originally Posted by Tccp123

Let us award Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews first prize in this alarming competition for doing the most to close down an economy and constraining citizens.

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Whilst you may not think that Daniel Andrews does a great job, I, as an Victorian, think he is doing a fantastic job in this unprecedented crisis.

Without his incisive action I may not survive this crisis due to my health conditions and I also believe that if a decision has to be made between say a nineteen year old or me then IMO it should be me that is saved.

Peter.

On a lighter note, elder daughter has a flat in South Bank which looks across the Yarra to the Melbourne CBD. Yesterday she texted a video taken the previous evening from her flat showing people yelling, singing and shining torches from their balconies right across the city.

Very uplifting, I thought.

mick :)

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Originally Posted by Glider

Yesterday she texted a video taken the previous evening from her flat showing people yelling, singing and shining torches from their balconies right across the city.

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Have you been doing that in Edith?

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Originally Posted by Sturdee

Whilst you may not think that Daniel Andrews does a great job, I, as an Victorian, think he is doing a fantastic job in this unprecedented crisis. Peter.

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Jaysus Peter, did you actually read that tosh from Albrechtsen? I saw enough of her on Q&A to know I'm better off not hearing or reading any thought bubble she might have. You may as well just read The World According to Rupert, and that won't enrich your life either - quite the opposite. It's all very well to get a range of opinions, but it's even better to know and avoid those that are a waste of pixels.

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Originally Posted by Sturdee

Whilst you may not think that Daniel Andrews does a great job, I, as an Victorian, think he is doing a fantastic job in this unprecedented crisis.

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Daniel Andrews has put strong restrictions on travel alright. It has been hard enough to get anywhere in Melbourne for ages because he started every roadwork project you could think of (except for the East-West link, which was the only one he should have been doing anyway). But he does not have th e money to finish any of them and the result is nobody can go anywhere anyway.

So because he can't build the transport infrastructure we need, he has instead reduced the number of people who can travel to the extent that the network can support the new volume. Covid19 is Daniel's best friend.

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Originally Posted by woodPixel

After seeing the ASTOUNDING recovery of our environment in only a month (smog gone! Himalayas seen in India! Oceans recovering!) its more important than ever that we, as entire planetary species, learn from this episode and fix our sins against the environment.

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Hummmmm . . . . CO2 and other green house gasses in the air are not disappearing and are actually still increasing albeit a little slower, because no fossil fuelled powered power plants have been switched off. The reduction in electricity use has brought down energy prices so there will be a tendency to keep using fossil fuels making the transition to less polluting sources slower. And plastics have not stopped flooding into the oceans . . . .I could go on.

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Have you been doing that in Edith?

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We're isolated 365 here so life has gone on as normal. Jenolan Caves has been closed since the bushfires so no "peak hour" traffic from Oberon.

I saw a truck yesterday.

mick :)

A longish read:
He Could Have Seen What Was Coming: Behind Trump’s Failure on the Virus - The New York Times

Interesting sms from a relative who lives in California.


“ Seems like good news for both Australia and New Zealand with the lock downs. Also seems like Commonwealth countries are doing lockdowns on a national level and following up with enforcement - friend from the UK said they are only allowed out to for one exercise/day and are stopping cars and people and fining if people do not have a legitimate reason for being out. Very different here - the federal government will not take ownership for anything and have left it to the governors and mayors for each of the states to decide on a state-by-state or even city-by-city policy - which is very haphazard and also has state bidding against state for equipment and supplies and then the federal government will come in and out bid and then give it to the state that Trump likes (read republican) or the state that has been most appreciative of him - he has even said “states need to appreciate him”. Good that they are being realistic with the time for lockdown - here again Trump is itching to get the country back to work (only because if the economy is still in bad shape come election time in November he will not do well) - the medical experts are warning that this would be a huge problem and a return to where we were - he said he will listen but then make up his own mind - the good thing is that governors will make up their own minds on a state-by-state basis and that goodness California has a good intelligent governor who is making decisions based on medical advice. California is also doing well in flattening the curve and we are not forecast to peak until mid May - schools in California are closed until next academic year. “

Well at least the most important thing has been satisfied: Trump will have something to blame for his loss in November, and it can't answer back.

The problem is that Trump is up against Biden, the man who has problems straining a sentence together. Gezzus, what a choice!

One thing that does concern me is how we have become almost totally reliant on essential medicines, PPE, ventilators etc. from overseas suppliers - largely China, who manufacture a large percentage of the world's medications. It seems that we have put too much faith in globalization at the risk of being unable to source essential supplies.
We have already seen the US refusing to supply Canada with face masks, despite the fact that Canada supplies the US with the raw materials to make them. Is it too much a stretch of the imagination to envisage a situation where we may not be able to source essential items either because the manufacturing country will not supply because of its own needs? Or perhaps the supply chain fails because of the impact of a pandemic?
Perhaps it's time to re-think the 'global village' theory for certain goods. I have no problem with China or any other country making all the world's mobiles, clothes, teapots and kiddies toys. If these goods disappeared tomorrow the world would get by.
Maybe Aus, NZ and Japan for example should be looking at a collaborative pharmaceutical industry. Perhaps new industries to produce PPE and medical equipment. What do we have to lose except a decline in unemployment to service new industries and perhaps a paying a little more for our medicines?
Pete