me three. oops, no, wait, that has passed, I know what's coming.......
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me three. oops, no, wait, that has passed, I know what's coming.......
I wish I was but alas!! :rolleyes::rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by Bushmiller
That modelling is still tracking quite closely with the actual data as it comes in showing early signs that they are starting to drop just very slightly below the projections.Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilS
The significance of looking at this for the US is that, unlike the situation here, they do have enough data now to verify the projection of about 80,000 deaths there. This will change as real data is added to their modelling.
In looking at the third graph remember that the US is behind us by about a day. eg as I write it is 9.30am on the 8th here and 8pm on the 7th in New York, so in this instance compare the projection for the 7th with the published data on places like Worldometer that update after midnight GMT+0.
Not wrong there, that ancestor had 14 children..... with a little help from three wives and one mistress!Quote:
Originally Posted by woodPixel
And, even taking into account the fatalities among those children from the plague, etc., the number of his descendants could now be in the tens of millions. Re-population is never a problem, running out of planet capable of supporting them is. The current pandemic is just a temporary distraction.
EvanQuote:
Originally Posted by woodPixel
I hope you are just bulletproof and are not referring to abuse by a movie mogul!
Regards
Paul
The pharma grade glycerol finally came today and I mixed up some IPA based hand sanitzer using the WHO IPA recipe. Hand feel seems good although it's quite a bit thinner than the usual hand gel stuff but it works very well in a spray bottle. Now we can have a bottle in the car, one by the front door, one in the kitchen, one in SWMBO's hand bag and a couple of spares.
Today's spreadsheet attached.
Points to note:
- Australian 3 day Cases increase was very small at 6.2%
- Australian 3 day death increase was once again 50%, but that is a bit skewed because of the low number.
- Australia is slightly trending down the Total Cases column, and IPM column
- Australia continues to remain very near the bottom of Deaths and Death Rate.
- Of the 2000+ death countries, Germany, UK, USA, Belgium had significant 3 day increases in Deaths of >40%, and France not far behind.
- USA 3 day new cases rate continues to fall (72%, 43%, 27%) so maybe they have peaked out somewhat.
- Same for Spain, Italy, France, but with better (lower) percentages than the USA
I have added a couple of things:
- When you sort a column the top cell will go green to indicate which sort it was.
- 4 columns K-N show the four overall positions for a country in each of the fields cases, death, death rate, IPM. This was really more about tracking Australia's position through the history of this spreadsheet.
Norman Swan's "Health Report" contains a discussion on face masks. It might be of interest to some of you. There are several topics broached in this segment, but the face mask discussion starts around the 8min mark if you wish to go straight there.
Coronavirus: face masks, sheep dip, clinical guidelines and CT scans - Health Report - ABC Radio National
In another broadcast (I think it was Norman Swan again) I heard that when Covid-19 decides to really latch onto a victim ( it is to my mind a latching process as the virus cannot live very long by itself and has to adhere to cells, which become the host) it develops into a second and much more severe phase. The talk, on Radio National, was sparked by the downturn in Boris Johnson's health. Looks like they were right to hospitalise him and the illness has gone far beyond the precautionary stage.
Regards
Paul
Quote:
Originally Posted by FenceFurniture
Except that the USA has added 10,500 cases and 600 deaths in the last 3 hours....
I don't want this to sound harsh or callous because the current British PM is just another human being (although over-privileged and under-smart)
BUT
him getting a bad case of C19 may make the rest of the UK, and indeed the rest of the world, take the situation somewhat more seriously than has been the case.
BrettQuote:
Originally Posted by FenceFurniture
Those figures are worrying enough in themselves. An escalating situation with a country whose attitude reflects various amendments and the fact it is a "free" country and they can't be told what to do exacerbates this considerably. I have heard this from an American and somebody who has just returned from the US (New York) and is back at our workplace after two weeks of enforced isolation.
However the more worrying factor is they have Dr. Donald Trump advising the populace how to self medicate, now that it is going to go on beyond Easter ( it would have been so nice if it was all done and dusted by Easter in time for the Bunny to visit) as it didn't go away by itself as he originally, and very confidently I might add, predicted it would.
Sorry. What's that you say? King Donald is not a doctor! Well. Who would have believed that!
Regards
Paul
Comeuppance - a word an American I knew used excessively 20 years ago.... seems so apt now.
Let him screw his own country - they voted him in (albeit with a slim minority in the pop. vote). The more worrying thing for me is for people like Bob who may find it hard to get the meds they need because duckheads around the world listen to Dr. Duck. Furthermore Dr Duck has just procured 29mill doses from India, so that will surely create a world shortage, at least for a while. That comes on top of other meds that could be in short supply because of the supply chain and transportation problems from China and India.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bushmiller
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bushmiller
What's the worry?
I am sure Dr Trump consulted with Dr Google.
Hmmm. I've seen a few reports on medrxiv that Hydro doesn't actually work for this beastie.Quote:
Originally Posted by FenceFurniture
BobL may be in luck - The yanks will find capitalism prices their excess inventory harshly. That useless excess will flood the market at VERY reasonable prices (for the buyers thereof anyway!)
I'm more than a little surprised that any country is actually engaging with the USA. As they become more desperate, so will their acts of piracy, sabotage, acrimony and ... war.
On Saturday I asked my chemist for 3 packs of potassium iodide. Just In Case. He looked right at me for quite a time.....
Quote:
Originally Posted by woodPixel
Me, too.
There was an interview on the ABC (or SBS?) about two weeks ago with an Australian surgeon working in a hospital deep inside the Red Zone in Lombardi (city named Bergarno, or similar?).
He described how they got a few strange cases, then were inundated, then were overwhelmed.... Medical staff were overworked, dangerously, facilities were exhausted, etc. All non-emmergency surgery was cancelled and surgeons were/are required to work as internal medicine physicians. They had to "play God" in deciding who got a ventillator, and who didn't, who went in and who was excluded from intensive care, even who was excluded from hospital.
They basically had no treatment available for many dying patients so got to the "try anything" stage, including the anti-malarial and the rhumatoid drugs. My memory is that he said there were some indications that there were benefits from the rhumatoid drugs in certain circumstances, but zero evidence of any benefits from the anti-malarials.
Calm everybody, some empty rhetoric is once again starting to flow
Know you are all stressed but nasty comments about other nationalities is possibly really not appropriate at this time
One of the most profound quotes ever:
" Any man's death diminishes me because I am involved with mankind: Therefore never send to know for whom the bells tolls, it tolls for thee." (John Donne. 1572 - 1631) Reference to the bells signifying funerals.
I have quoted it many times, but never before has it been so pertinent as it is in these times.
Hemingway plagiarised it a little in his novel "For Whom the Bell Tolls" about the Spanish civil war and it is that extract that is most familiar to us.
Regards
Paul
I don't know if you've seen this, but worth a watch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejlbCmRJMW4
Good for you Bob. Having it in abundance and in plenty of places increases peace of mind, if nothing else.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
Something I've heard second hand from an aged care nurse is that when using gel it should only be 3 times per day because greeblies can be trapped between the layers of gel. I question "3" layers: why wouldn't 2 do it? In any case I would think that a good lather up would take things back to bare skin, and the process could start over again.
Hand gel will only denature the bugs on your hands. It offers no protection against any you might pick up after it dries. Each application will do the same job and it's highly doubtful that the gel itself would create a barrier or safe haven for any flora.Quote:
Originally Posted by FenceFurniture
mick
- - - Updated - - -
Thanks Mick. It does sound self-defeating, because if the gel is going to trap bugs between layers then self-evidently it is not killing them, and therefore useless anyway.
Have removed "It sounds plausible, but" from my post so that anyone who reads it doesn't get a wrong impression.
Good thinking, 99!
From what I seen/experienced not all hand gels are the same. Some are thin/runny that evaporates quickly while others do leave a slightly sticky residue that hangs around for many minutes even hours but I suspect most of this will be the moisturising components. I actually don't like this feeling so I end up washing my hands as soon as possible afterwards. If anything I then wonder if the moisturiser being sticky subsequently picks up and carries around more virus?Quote:
Originally Posted by Glider
I may have said this in an earlier post but can't remember. Adding Glycerine (glycerol) to hand gel inhibits evaporation of the alcohol and to some extent dilutes it. Glycerine is a humectant and is used in toiletries to moisturise skin. To my mind it seems a bit pointless adding it because alcohols will dissolve some of the lipids from the skin and moisture won't replace them. It's possible that some formulators will add fatty esters and some of the longer chain ones will feel sticky. Some gels might also retain some of the liquid medium with the same outcome. I've told my family to make a solution of 75% metho, 25% water and thicken to the desired viscosity with Aloe Vera gel which they've harvested from the garden. They've all provided positive feedback.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
mick :)
p.s. I used to formulate this sort of thing.
I agree about glycerine reducing alcohol evaporation during application but I doubt its doing much dilution since the amount in the WHO recipe is only added at 14g/L. My understanding is that rather than attempting to replace lost lipids, glycerine is also added to generate a barrier to reduce the amount of further moisture loss from the skin after application? Isn't that really how skin moisturizers work?Quote:
Originally Posted by Glider
I'm not familiar with the WHO formula. Given that>95% of the formula will evaporate, 1.4% should be enough to moisturise the skin but not really as a primary barrier. Glycerine is hygroscopic hence it's classed as a humectant. For those unfamiliar with the term, it attracts water to itself.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
Skin moisturisers are supposed to work in two ways, depending on the formula. Bear in mind that they are not subject to clinical or even efficacy trials, only animal testing in the old days. Currently I believe they use only ingredients tested for hypersensitivity. Most are oil in water emulsions of lipophilic ingredients like lanolin, mineral oil, fatty waxes etc. in a continuous water based phase which contains glycerine or sorbitol. The insoluble fatty phase does the waterproofing and the humectants attract and retain water. Scientifically, it doesn't make sense, but that's what the market accepts.
When I worked in cosmetics and toiletries, it was always said "We're in the business of selling dreams".
mick
The meths brew, by volume, isQuote:
Originally Posted by Glider
83.5% Ethanol at 95-96% purity
1.5% Glycerol at 98% purity
2% H2O2 at 6% strength
13% H20 at 100% strength. If the water is diluted then vary accordingly. Water should be boiled and cooled (although I can't see what the cooling will do - at 13%, it'll hardly heat things up much)
So they are aiming for 80% purity of alcohol (83.5% of 96% is 80%).
For using IPA there is a change to the alcohol/water content but I can't remember it off the top of my head.
I made up both a WHO Ethanol formula with Glycerol and WHO Isopropyl formula with Aloe Vera. I have read that the amount of water added to both formulae is critical to achieve the concentrations and effectiveness of the alcohol (eg 75%-85% v/v for Ethanol). Ethanol requires a slightly higher proportion of alcohol to water. Efficacy drops dramatically below 60% alcohol concentrations.Quote:
Originally Posted by Glider
Both mixes are thin and runny. The time required to achieve max efficacy is 10 to 15 seconds. That will be achieved with the WHO formulae. A thicker mix that takes longer to evaporate achieves no extra benefit and mixes that are too thick could be counterproductive.
Some research has shown that Ethanol is slightly more effective with viruses and Isopropyl more effective with bacteria. Washing your hands for long enough with soap is more effective than both, but not always possible, thus the role of the rubs. The rubbing is an important aspect of the protocol.
Covid-19 (Sars-CoV-2) appears to be very contagious, but fortunately it is vulnerable to soap and alcohol rubs in the right formulation. Detergents are also effective on surfaces. These rapidly dissolve the lipid membranes that hold the virus package together. The components of the virus fall apart and then can't pass on the instructions to replicate more virus.
Trivia: According to the microbiologist in my family, we don't kill the virus as they are not by strict definition alive. They are more like a computer program that can do nothing until inserted into and activated by a computer. Viruses are hijackers. They need living cells to allow the virus code to be activated, to replicate and be lifelike.
WHO Isopropyl FormulaQuote:
Originally Posted by FenceFurniture
• Isopropyl alcohol (99.8% concentration) 75% (v/v),
• Glycerol (98% concentration) 1.45% (v/v),
• Hydrogen peroxide (3% concentration) 0.125% (v/v)
• H2O to make up to 100% (v/v)
Cooling the water may reduce the evaporation of the alcohol until bottled.
This is a befuddling story.....in the middle of what may be the worst unemployment since the depression.
I know of this second-hand, but at very close range, and it has happened over the last week.
A person has a full-time tenured position, at ~$150,000pa, and has been in the job for around 18 months. They have a PhD, but it is not strictly in the field of the job title. In other words, this is no dummy. They are surrounded by similarly qualified, highly educated people. They have been recently unhappy about being undermined, both from above and below, with the underling apparently engaging in shouting during a Zoom meeting last Friday. The meeting was called by the person in question so as to resolve the difficulty with the underling if at all possible.
Not so long ago, this person had saved the underling's skin from some other kerfuffle where they had behaved badly towards another staff member.
The person had already decided to go on 5 weeks annual leave starting from this week, and was going to consider their position in that time, which they were regarding as untenable. They were basically thinking of resigning. I had discussed this with the "second-hand" person who related the story to me, and my view of it was that to resign was lunacy in the current environment, and virtually at the end of a career (63 years old).
As it turns out, the five week leave was not used for consideration, and they submitted their resignation yesterday. :doh:
There are times when you need to stand up for yourself, and have the courage of your convictions. There are other times - extraordinary times - when it might be smarter to lay low for a while, and maybe even ride out the storm. As I said last night, the person will feel very foolish indeed if the underling is independently brought to heel if or when they are discovered to be "unsuitable" for their own job (which would seem to be the case).
Good luck finding another job....of any kind....ever.
Another early retiree in the making.
Sorry to quibble Neil, but formulae can be critical. According to the WHO Brew sheet that Bob posted a while back (reattached here), it should be 4% volume (actually 4.17% but...) of Hydrogen peroxide of 3% concentration (which is why I nominated 2% of 6% concentration, being much cheaper to purchase than 3%).Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilS
Peroxide and Glycerol quantities are the same for either alcohol type.
The two formulations are on the 3rd page of the PDF (nominated as page 2 of 9).
:no:Quote:
Originally Posted by rustynail
Made!
Breaking news from the NY Times:
Coronavirus Live Updates: Studies Show N.Y. Outbreak Originated in Europe - The New York Times
Do scroll down through that blog to scope some of the excellent photo-journalism from the NYT. USA PJ is the best there is.
Maybe someone can shed some light on this conundrum?
We established a while ago that the 20 seconds of hand washing is just the lathering part of the process - i.e. not including the time it takes to rinse off the lather. This is because it can take 20 seconds to denature/disrupt the lipids that protect the virus.
So what use is just wiping down hard surfaces? Surely the same metric should be applied, and all of the surface needs to have a lather on it for a full 20 seconds before a rinse wipe down? AFAIK, the lather needs to be agitated too, to completely disrupt the lipid coating - in other words each part of the surface needs to be rubbed with the lather for 20 seconds. That could take *some time*.
This is even more difficult to achieve when wiping down groceries (which I have not been doing). I have been more relying on the virus "dying" within 24 hours on cardboard, and 72 hours on plastic or steel.
20 second hand washing is with soap and water (Happy birthday to Me twice and then rinse off). Evaporative sanitiser is wipe on and leave it. According to my friend who is a grub, I mean scrub nurse.
Due to the rona virus, at work we now have to clean machinery controls at the end of each day on the machines that we were using. I generally run two or three of the saws during the day so I clean those. I spray one, walk over to the other spray that, and then a third if needed. Then I wipe down the first, second then third. I don't know what I am spraying, just some soapy stuff that the bosses missus put into a bottle for us.Quote:
Originally Posted by FenceFurniture
Thanks Ken. So presumably when they say "wipe down surfaces" that means with alcoholic sanitiser - maybe I missed that bit.