And, the advice from Choice...Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilS
"trying to get out of high risk investments at the peak and back in at the bottom is highly unpredictable and can leave you chasing your losses."
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And, the advice from Choice...Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilS
"trying to get out of high risk investments at the peak and back in at the bottom is highly unpredictable and can leave you chasing your losses."
And suddenly the world changed.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
Not only is there no stigma attached to wearing your undies on your head in public any more, it is actually looked upon as being socially responsible.
Who would have thought it a couple of short weeks ago.
Jaysus. USA has added 6500 cases in the last 11 hours! On today's death rate of 2.7% just that will result in another 175 deaths in the coming weeks, just from that half day period.
As I posted before, the deaths are 2-3 weeks behind.
My sister said it could be genetic and reminded me that in his 60s dad would wear a pair of undies on his head and sing when he drank too much grappa. I don't drink (much) but recently took up having an espresso with grappa every other day - no sign of any singing though.Quote:
Originally Posted by doug3030
I've been a participant in the annual national (regular/seasonal) flu tracker program for a few years.
Flutracking.net | Tracking Influenza Across Australia and New Zealand
If you join you get a weekly email reminder/link to click on to answer half a dozen yes-no questions about flu like symptoms.
It takes about 30s each week to participate - very easy.
Normally this survey starts in mid April each year but this year because of COVID19 they started tracking earlier.
These are the results so far.
Attachment 471020
Its early days but it looks like flu like symptoms in the community are lower than usual and one might then ask why?
It's too early for the early release of the regular flu vaccine to have had an effect.
Perhaps it's due to people staying at home, washing their hands and participating in social distancing.
If this continues there will be fewer people getting (and dying from) the regular flu so maybe the relatively few people (so far) dying from COVID will be compensated for by fewer regular flu victims?
Flu tracker also shows where various symptoms are located around AUS. This is the cough and fever data.
the data is by post code and the map on the Flu Tracker website can be zoomed in on see finer detail.
Looks like North Island NZ is getting knocked around a bit.
Attachment 471019
BobL, this is EXACTLY what is needed for this bloody WuFlu.
EXACTLY.
If people could register, update with daily temp, pulse, breathe rate, O2 and blood pressure (I've you've a little machine)*
Perfect. Maybe it should be mandatory.... especially for those already tested positive.
* All of this stuff is so cheap now, everyone should have them really. Finger O2 and pulse meters are $20 on eBay.
Call me old fashioned and out of touch with current societal trends if you like but I am still holding on to the belief that singing, even badly, would be more socially acceptable than wearing your undies on your head in public. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
Well sign up then and forward it around to others. Its fully sanctioned by NSW Health.Quote:
Originally Posted by woodPixel
They currently only have about 40k regular participants but unlike single COVID19 tests, participants report every week so it gives a better "in time" picture of what is going on.
If all one did after a few too many drinks was wear undies on head and sing that wouldn't be so bad, well better than driving and beating someone up anyway.Quote:
Originally Posted by doug3030
Not only is there no stigma attached to wearing your undies on your head in public any more, it is actually looked upon as being socially responsible.Quote:
Originally Posted by doug3030
If only we could persuade young females into this habit. But I guess there's not much facial protection from a G-string. Pete
[QUOTE=woodhutt;2181534]Particularly if under the influence of alcohol you get them on back to front by accident.Quote:
Originally Posted by doug3030
:(
Regards
Paul
Looks like there has been some error in the editing of the quoting codes.
Just to make it clear, I did not post anything about young females and g-strings, despite what the quotes are displaying in a couple of posts above.
Maybe a moderator might be able to fix the codes.
Most likely it was a case of Paul unintentionally hitting the multi-quote button and not quite sorting out the consequences of that (multi-quoting is a bit tricky).... So, Woodhutt's start of quote is there above the quote box, but no end of quote, and as a result his quote appears to be attributed to you, Doug.Quote:
Originally Posted by doug3030
Thanks Neil and apologies DougQuote:
Originally Posted by NeilS
I did not intentionally change anything. The skill required to multi quote has eluded me for the sixteen years I have contributed to the Forum with the one exception that about a week ago I did successfully do a multi quote, but I still don't know how I did it and have not be able to replicate the task again.
So in short I just hit "reply with quote" and I have absolutely no idea how the two posts became one. Just to state my position on the undies for mask thingy, from my very sheltered perspective, I think they probably look a lot better worn as originally intended: But not on everyone.
Regards
Paul
My apologies Doug. I haven't quite got the hang of quoting the post I'm answering. And, for the benefit of other members and/or moderators, Doug did NOT mention young ladies or G-strings. I thought it might raise a smile and apologise for any offence anyone may have experienced. Pete
Thanks Neil,Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilS
I understand how the quote codes work. I fix them myself all the time on other forums where I have moderator privileges.
Yes, Doug, basic quotes are relatively straight forward, it's those multi-quotes on this forum software that can get us all tripped up at times.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ned Kelly and his Gang
And, if we happen to have any bushrangers on the forums they can fiddle the codes if they have a mind to do so....:U
And if you really want to you can go back and put the whole conversation into one post. Oh the fun I could have doing that all day. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilSYes, Doug, basic quotes are relatively straight forward, it's those multi-quotes on this forum software that can get us all tripped up at times.Quote:
Originally Posted by doug3030Thanks Neil,Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilS
I understand how the quote codes work. I fix them myself all the time on other forums where I have moderator privileges.
And, if we happen to have any bushrangers on the forums they can fiddle the codes if they have a mind to do so....:U
OK, I'm back banging on about modelling.
Please tune out if this is not your thing.
The reported data that we are getting on the number of cases and deaths, etc, tells us what has happened and there is much value in that for us and our governments, and this will also be invaluable for those who manage future pandemics once all the data is in after this one. However, those managing the current crisis don't have the benefit of hindsight (other than from some lesser epidemics over the last few decades) so they are having to make many critical decisions based on the available modelling.
The deputy chief medical officer agreed last week to release the modelling that they are working on, but that has not happened. I suspect that there is disagreement in the inner circle with the timing on that.
On The Drum last Thursday (?) the/a chief modeller expressed the value of having the models that are being used open to the public. In his view, doing so improves compliance with restrictions. I detected a hint of frustration that this has not happened already. No conspiracy theory on this, just a sign that perhaps we have less than the most competent at the helm.
In contrast, NZ has been releasing and updating its modelling since 27 Feb.
COVID-19 Modelling reports | Ministry of Health NZ
Perhaps it is no coincidence that NZ is performing so well. They also learned a very big lesson during the 1918 flu pandemic.
I previously posted a link to some modelling on bed, ICU, ventilator and predicted deaths in the US. So far it has been tracking closely to the predictions. Here is the link again. The third graph shows total deaths. Note: Time-wise the US is behind us by about a day (and much more in other ways...:rolleyes: ).
COVID-19
I think someone must have shown Donald Duck some projection curves and it seems that it won't be business as usual again by Easter.
There are of course many issues around modelling. Even the experts in the field admit that it has its flaws as quoted in the following briefing; Epidemic modelers are the first to admit their projections can be off. “All models are wrong, but some are useful”.
Modelling the Coronavirus Pandemic to Guide Policy decisions.
Imperfect as they are models are the best we have to guide our decision making in times like these, otherwise ideology or politicking will prevail with potentially disastrous consequences.
I look forward to finally seeing the modelling that is being used here in Australia.
Ok
You blokes totally lost me when you started talking "codes." I am but a simple man who doesn't use a mobile phone. This episode has ruined my self belief to the extent I will never ever quote a post for the rest of the day.
Under the circumstances, I am also no longer going ahead with my request to woodhutt for pictures. Having regard to my current luck it would surely get tacked on to a post from the Benevolent Dictator!
Regards
Paul
PS: At least one person in workplace gets me to test his programmes. His claim is that if they survive me, they are bulletproof.
:DMaybe the low number is because people are reluctant to admit they have a slight fever or cough incase they are accused of having Covid :DQuote:
Originally Posted by BobL
Yeah - maybe - but I kinda think they might be balanced out by the excess of hypochondriacs that often participate in these self selective surveys :oo:.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lappa
SWMBO is on her next model of face mask that utilises pieces of the 14 "still in the boxes" Miele Hyclean vac bags we found at MILs during the big clean out.
The mask consists of a tight weave cotton envelope that holds a piece of the Hyclean bag. The claim on these bags is 99.9% of all fine dust - whatever that means (no particle sizes given) , and as I have the test gear I will be measuring this as soon as I get organised.
Absolutely.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bushmiller
I've run teams and been a programming grunt for ages :) Some people, just some, are called "Tods".
Everything Tod does ends in wreckage and flames. They are highly valuable and often sought out and kept like pets :)
..... Touch Of Death.
:)
Ha! Funny you should mention this. I saw on some medical forum that is EXACTLY what they are doing.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
I noted it as I've a few spare Miele Hyclean bags. The Vac itself is great, but the bags are very nice indeed. Cheap on eBay too.... the knockoffs are cheap, but the originals are cheap enough not to worry too much about the difference.
SWMBO asked a few weeks ago if they could be used for masks.
Funny how things come together! Keen to hear the results of your testing dude.
We have now had the briefing, but without the modelling!Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilS
The slides used during the briefing weren't readable for one reason and another, so a copy is attached. It doesn't say much.
Supposedly the actual modeling will be released by the Doherty Institute later today.
Does anyone know if FenceFurniture is ok?
He has not posted for two days, which seems a little unusual.
He is currently sitting on an average of 2.81 posts to the forums a day, so definitely not his usual form.Quote:
Originally Posted by doug3030
Missing in action, presumed ........ ???
Came back Brett, we didn't mean it!
Trying to put coronavirus in perspective. Total confirmed cases passing 1,350,000 and virus deaths almost 75,000.
When the world population was much less than present, the Great Bubonic Plague spread though Eurasia killing an estimated 75 - 200 million people peaking between 1347 and 1351.
One common theory was that the plague was spread by miasmas, and that to prevent infection you had to filter out those gases.
Attachment 471095
Attachment 471093
Those beaks apparently were filled with fragrant flower petals, spices and herbs to filter out the dangerous miasmas and smells.
Now I would hate to offend Bob by suggesting that one could incorporate a sachel of fragrant herbs, spices and herbs in a mask made from his budgie smugglers.
It might need more than a satchel of FHS in those.Quote:
Originally Posted by GraemeCook
Wazzup? Been working on other stuff. (although I think one or two did actually mean it...:roll:).Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilS
There hasn't been much to comment on, particularly as the white noise has died off.
And the Plague kept returning repeatedly right up into the 17th Century. Some of my family history gives me a further perspective on the sheer scale of those pandemics.Quote:
Originally Posted by GraemeCook
Basel in Switzerland was hit very hard by successive returns of the Plague there in the sixteenth century. My ancestor, Adam Bodenstein, was a professor of medicine at Basel University and he died himself of the Plague in 1577 in the same year that he published his theory on how to treat it in his Herrlicher Philosophischer rhatschlag zu curirn Pestilentz. His first wife, Esther Weiss, and many of their children had died in the 1564 Plague as had his father, Andreas Bodenstein, before him in the 1541 Plague. His father had succumbed to the Plague while ministering to those who were afflicted with it. Up to half of the population of Basel is thought to have perished in some Plague years. Fortunately for me one of his daughters survived the Basel plagues, otherwise I wouldn't be here...:)
Understanding the causes of the 'Pestilence' and how to avoid and treat it was one of the great challenges of the early modern era, but obviously my ancestors interest in finding a cure was not purely driven by academic interest. Despite the best efforts of the medical profession in the 16th century, their theories about the Plague and how to treat it were completely wrong, as was most of their thinking about disease. It would be another three centuries before scientists like Jenner and Pasteur developed the first vaccines and the germ theory of disease became established to replace the 'miasma' theory.
No doubt my ancestor would have donned one of those scary beak outfits while treating Plague patients. If you didn't die of the Plague itself the fright you would receive from having a doctor approaching you with that outfit on and issuing exotic smells was probably enough!
Those masks may become quite fashionable again :)
I'm curios. With the masks and the infusions they put in them, they would have been guesswork, but that guesswork must have been from knowledge built upon.
Were there records of the concoctions used?
I read just then about pneumonic plague on Wikipedia.
I thought that if y.pestis were the cause, there must have been a carrier, either people or animals.... if those concoctions had some sort of astringent effect at deterring fleas?......
Imagine, like NeilS' families experience, of being hit again and again and again and again. Life must have been lived fulsomely every day one received!*
* then again, there were the vigorous... efforts... of re-population required ;)
Doubt it. They though it came through the air hence the masks. And the plethora of pefumieres.Quote:
Originally Posted by woodPixel
Hey interesting graph here for COVID19 deaths.
Attachment 471117
Small numbers, and although more men are dying from COVID19 than women, its interesting to see the majority of men are dying in their usual age range 80-89 but the majority of women during are dying between 70-79 which is about 15 years younger than usual.
The reason so few men are dying in their 90s is probably because there's not many men left in that cohort compared to women.
[QUOTE=BobL;2181720
The reason so few men are dying in their 90s is probably because there's not many men left in that cohort compared to women.[/QUOTE]
Oh. And I thought it was because man flu is so much worse than the flu that afflicts women.
:wink:
Regards
Paul
OK, finally out.Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilS
https://www.doherty.edu.au/uploads/c...h_appendix.pdf
It is very clear based on this modelling why the strict social distancing measures were adopted.
And why it is not good to a 70+ yr old..... :C
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilS
Phew.
I'm right. Only 69 2/3rds. :)
Come August. :(
Stay safe everyone. Only joking.
Regards
Paul
Was that written by Mrs Bushmiller?:DQuote:
Originally Posted by Bushmiller
No. But there may be some reflection of her sentiments there and indeed those of most women. :wink:Quote:
Originally Posted by Lappa
The irony here is that usually, and I do have to stress usually, I am not afflicted with the flu or colds etc. However last year I did get a flu or more likely a bad cold (we chuck the "flu" term around a little carelessly) I was out for a few days. This followed SWMBO with her "flu", which persisted for more than three weeks. I am still 24 years old and bullet proof. I just don't look that way anymore! :( .(I have far fewer days off sick than my colleagues at work, who are all younger. :cool:)
Regards
Paul
Me too!Quote:
Originally Posted by Bushmiller