Future of the Australian Electricity Market

Graeme

Thank you for all the charts and the comment. I think it is fair to say that the market is still extremely volatile and we see wide ranges on the spot market. I have started to keep our daily reports and these are a couple to highlight the volatility. Note that the prices are only for QLD, although demands are across the three largest states (apologies to South Australians and Tasmanians that you don't get a mention).

Attachment 529293

Every day (during the day) we see negative prices at some point and this is during winter, which is the second highest seasonal demand. It has been mild and the demand is quite low across the NEW. That -$44 to -$55 equates to 4c/5c per KW/hr. Quite a lot more than Warbs 1.5c in that 10am to 3pm period. It can go lower. However, it is capped at -$1000 (roughly. I can't remember the exact figure.) I am guessing the average householder would be spewing if he had to cough up $13 per hour for his 13Kws supplied to the grid! :D If we wish to be a supplier, we may have to play by the big boys' rules :(. Of course, I can hear Warbs explaining that he only gets a fixed rate of.... can't remember... 6c-8c (not as much as the 10c you get in Tassie) but he can't deliver much in the way of power when the grid really needs it. That time is from about 0630 until 0830 and then again in the evening from 1630 to say 2030 at night. Then prices remain high during the night, although not elevated as they are during the peaks.

The average prices for the moment are quite low and I had to go back a month to see a significant spike. 19 June 2023. It hit voll, (Value of Lost Load) which is the highest it can be. It quite likely lasted for only a single five-minute segment, although I am only guessing that judging by the average price. It still only resulted in an average of $195 or 19.5c /Kwhr. The NEM load demand for 19 and 20 June was well up. It looks like on the next day the market was better prepared and despite a higher generation the ludicrous maximum price did not eventuate, although I expect the traders of the various companies had their tongues dragging on the floor hoping for a windfall. Supply and demand economics, which I don't think I have to explain to someone like yourself.

I think it is true to say that all generators make hay while, ironically, the sun doesn't shine, because, during the day they have to pay to stay online. Ideally, they would shut down, pack up their toys and go home, but for even the fastest ramping generators this is enormously expensive. The generator just has to reduce load as far as practical and wear the penalty.

Attachment 529294

Tasmania, as we have observed in past posts, is something of an anomaly. They are the only state where the power is government owned and they are consistently less expensive than any of the other states. It looks as though that is at least partially passed on to the consumer judging by your costs. A good reason why none of the states should have sold off their electricity utilities, but don't get me going on that one.

Just on your coal chart in the previous post, I think that relates to export coal and may not have too much bearing on the rubbish that we burn in power stations.

Regards
Paul

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

Just on your coal chart in the previous post, I think that relates to export coal and may not have too much bearing on the rubbish that we burn in power stations.

---

Paul,
as I understand the THERMAL coal market, the export price (per tonne) for exported thermal coal is discounted by a fixed percentage to obtain the price for the "rubbish" ground up and spat into your power station.
If I have my facts straight, the discount is based on the percentage of burnable carbon in the coal, though the discount may be based on the percentage of "ash" in the coal -- a higher ash content leads to a greater discount on the export price. The fact that only Australian generators are willing to use the crap is irrelevant.

Oh, the joys of the free market -- if no one but Aussies is prepared to buy the coal, the miner's marketeers can still charge a percentage of the current international spot price to supply the rubbish coal.

I'm not sure how many remember the ACT's late 2000s ledge to go 100% renewable with their electricity supply.

The ACT's early contracts for places like the Royalla Solar Farm were written at prices in excess of 180 cents/kWh, with later projects written at prices of around 150 to 160 cents/kWh.


Paul may have a better handle on current solar contract pricing, but solar electricity is capital intensive and the investors will be looking for something like a 15% return on their investment.

Home battery prices are very expensive, and I can’t make an economic argument for them in my case. My PV panels plus infeed tariff mean I have virtually zero bill in summer. Still waiting for our winter bill, but my guess is that it might get to $300. Prices per kWh would have to climb to unimaginable levels before a battery would pay for itself. Yet I still find myself looking at them, and wondering if I could get to zero power cost.

cheers,

ajw

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ian

Paul may have a better handle on current solar contract pricing, but solar electricity is capital intensive and the investors will be looking for something like a 15% return on their investment.

---

Ian

I can't really help there. Solar contracts are a mystery to me so much so that during a visit to the Brisbane head Office I asked the traders how it was done. I have to say that the reply did not really answer my question. However, it appears that the solar farms don't negotiate the contracts themselves, but other generators negotiate on their behalf and possibly incorporate it into their contracts. I had wondered how a contract could be issued for 0700hrs to 1900hrs.

On the cost of Power Station coal I don't know what is paid in general as that would be confidential information. As to the Millmerran station, I certainly can't divulge the cost other than to say it is dirt cheap, mainly because it is very close to dirt! :wink: In fact, if it didn't produce Carbon Dioxide I would suggest it is a stretch to call it coal. It is also cheap because it is our coal mine and we are the only ones that use it. I don't believe any percentages come into the equation.

Regards
Paul

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

On the cost of Power Station coal I don't know what is paid in general as that would be confidential information. As to the Millmerran station, I certainly can't divulge the cost other than to say it is dirt cheap, mainly because it is very close to dirt! :wink: In fact, if it didn't produce Carbon Dioxide I would suggest it is a stretch to call it coal. It is also cheap because it is our coal mine and we are the only ones that use it. I don't believe any percentages come into the equation.

---

If the Millerman mine has any sort of access to the road or rail network -- and there must be some sort of connection to deliver fuel and workers to the mine's machinery -- the "clever" traders employed by the company that owns the mine will have figured out a way to link the high export spot [thermal] coal price to the input price charged to the Millerman Power station's boilers. (Note I'm saying market will bear price for the coal, not the true cost of mining the coal.)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ian

I'm not sure how many remember the ACT's late 2000s ledge to go 100% renewable with their electricity supply.

The ACT's early contracts for places like the Royalla Solar Farm were written at prices in excess of 180 cents/kWh, with later projects written at prices of around 150 to 160 cents/kWh.

Paul may have a better handle on current solar contract pricing, but solar electricity is capital intensive and the investors will be looking for something like a 15% return on their investment.

---

I'm a resident of this fine capital. Luckily winter here has been tshirt weather. Its unreal. Not cold at ALL.

My electron prices just went up today. Yay! :no:

I use a spreadsheet for budgeting, so all the new numbers are put in and it regenerates the last 17 quarterly bills to see what the difference might be :U:p (Yes, Im a data nerd, can't help it!)

Attachment 529300



-- Charge 1 to 4 are simply when I moved plans or changed address.
-- Gas shows the daily charge and the rate for the first-N (whatever the units are) of use.
-- Electricity is pretty straight forward.

Here is the cost increase (in dollars) for the same usage over the last 8 quarters.... Not too bad.
<style type="text/css">br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}</style>

11.18
10.70
11.08
10.30
12.55
0.00
1.71
8.41

I can live with an additional $12.55 on my quarterly bill.

....

Chaps, I've said it before, but its worth considering..... rather than putting 30k into solar+batteries, consider investing it into shares in solar companies. Better returns, plus the capital will compound, not depreciate. I should do an analysis, but I'd wager that others here would be better at working those things out :)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ian

If the Millerman mine has any sort of access to the road or rail network -- and there must be some sort of connection to deliver fuel and workers to the mine's machinery -- the "clever" traders employed by the company that owns the mine will have figured out a way to link the high export spot [thermal] coal price to the input price charged to the Millerman Power station's boilers. (Note I'm saying market will bear price for the coal, not the true cost of mining the coal.)

---

Ian

I may not have been clear. Millmerran Power Station owns the mine. It is ours and right next door. The coal is delivered by conveyor belt from the mine to the power station and the mine's dump trucks remove the ash and stick it back in the voids. If I look out from the top of the boiler, all I can see in one direction is our mine. However, having said all that, we employ an outside contractor to manage the mine. It has been the same company since inception until about a year ago when that contractor decided to get out of coal mining and we now have a new mob.

Regards
Paul

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

... I would suggest it is a stretch to call it coal. It is also cheap because it is our coal mine and we are the only ones that use it. I don't believe any percentages come into the equation. ...

---

But you can wager that your accountants/strategists will be benchmarking the costs of your company mining coal, adjusted for heat content, against the export price for thermal coal.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

. ... Tasmania, as we have observed in past posts, is something of an anomaly. They are the only state where the power is government owned and they are consistently less expensive than any of the other states. It looks as though that is at least partially passed on to the consumer judging by your costs. ...

---

I would rather say unique rather than an anomoly. Also over 99% of electricity is from renewable sources:

• 80% hydro,
• 17% wind farms,
• 2% solar,
• >1% natural gas (allegedly, Hydro keeps Tamar Valley Gas powered generator ticking over as the cheapest way of mothballing it.)

Wind farms are growing rapidly and will become much more important. The solar figures are understated as roof top solar that offsets rather than entering grid is not measured. One advantage of hydro is that it can respond extremely quickly to changes in supply from wind and solar. Coal fired has a big lag time.

The stated government objective is 200% from renewables. We'll see; they are very creative at stuffing up.

Hydro dependency is not without its problems. Droughts do happen and clerks do sell too much electricity to the national grid.

Tasmania has about 30 hydro schemes, but two of them - Great Lake and Gordon Schemes - supply about 70% of the generating capacity. Lake Gordon is larger, but Great Lake is higher at 3,000 feet and thus supplies more energy. Current storage levels are:

• Great Lake - 12.74 metres from full, and
• Lake Gordon - 26.70 metres from full.

Lake levels

For illustration, a 10 storey block of flats will be around 30 metres tall.

• Most of the small lakes are spilling or near full.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

... Thank you for all the charts and the comment. I think it is fair to say that the market is still extremely volatile and we see wide ranges on the spot market. ...

---

True enough. I think that this volatility will actually increase as the reliance on renewables - wind and solar - increases. Coal fired generators cannot ramp up fast enough to meet the demand fluctuations. This time lag will fuel price volatility.

But there is also that massive dicotomy between wholesale and retail prices.

Wholesale prices are volatile and average prices have decreased by about 60% in the past 10 months.

Retail prices are not volatile and have increased exorbitantly in the last few month.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GraemeCook

True enough. I think that this volatility will actually increase as the reliance on renewables - wind and solar - increases. Coal fired generators cannot ramp up fast enough to meet the demand fluctuations. This time lag will fuel price volatility.

But there is also that massive dicotomy between wholesale and retail prices.

Wholesale prices are volatile and average prices have decreased by about 60% in the past 10 months.

Retail prices are not volatile and have increased exorbitantly in the last few month.

---

Graeme

I have pointed out in the past that every single power source we can think of as reasonably viable has at least one fundamental flaw. Some have many flaws even though they may appear attractive at first glance. Your DC link in Tasmania across Bass Strait was an insurance against drought and was to safeguard the Tasmanian grid. The other downside of hydro is the impact downstream on the ecology. However, all that pales into insignificance versus the impact of carbon dioxide emissions.

When wholesale prices were so high in recent times the retailers without sufficient contract, who were probably opportunists, got caught out badly. Most of the large entities will have the bulk of their power via contracts and are consequently insulated against the spikes. It is difficult to assess the proportions of the power under contracts, but it is probably in the region of 75% to 80%. Contracts do have a way of evening out the graph as correction can only be made when they come up for renewal (of course).

Retail prices are not my area of expertise other than to comment there is a big difference between what is available in the country areas compared to the urban regions.

Regards
Paul

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GraemeCook

But you can wager that your accountants/strategists will be benchmarking the costs of your company mining coal, adjusted for heat content, against the export price for thermal coal.

---

Graeme

As operators our group is in constant contact with our traders and I have to say I don't see anything that would support that statement. The accountants, who are a separate group, are often a source of exasperation, but not in that area. However, I would be breaching confidentiality to elaborate any further than that.

There may well be different arrangements with stations that buy their coal from mines on the open market, but I don't have any inside information on that either.

Regards
Paul

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GraemeCook

• Great Lake - 12.74 metres from full, and
• Lake Gordon - 26.70 metres from full.

---

That's a fascinating way they use to describe the fullness of a dam. I'm sure that on a tour of a hydro plant long ago we were told that they had built a tall dam, with the generators at the base to give a high pressure (head) for the turbines, but the lake behind the dam was wide and shallow, with just a relatively small artificial trench behind the dam to create the head. I believe other schemes pipe the water downhill to create the pressure. In either case it would seem that quoting "metres from full" is meaningless - if the lake is 15m deep but the drop to the turbines (either by a trench behind the dam or through pipes) is 150m, then "12.74metres from full" is akin to "nearly empty".

Typing that has made me look! According to this link Great Lake averages 12m in depth. Water doesn't tend to slope very much, so on that basis the lake is, on average, empty. Hmmmm.....

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

Graeme

As operators our group is in constant contact with our traders and I have to say I don't see anything that would support that statement. The accountants, who are a separate group, are often a source of exasperation, but not in that area. ...

---

I am absolutely amazed that you would make a statement like that, Paul.

One of the first rules of business is to know and understand what your competitors are doing. Competitors include markets and sources of supply. Why mine coal if you can buy in at a cheaper price? Why buy in coal if you can mine it a a lower cost? Ignoance is not bliss. It is ignorance.

I hope someone is doing some benchmarking of which you are not aware.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Warb

That's a fascinating way they use to describe the fullness of a dam. ...

"Great Lake averages 12m in depth." .....

---

They used to report lake levels in percent of full, but I could not find such a reference. Hydro and the state government is obsessed with "business in confidence" which may be reflected in a "useless statistic" rather than a useful one.

I have done a lot of fishing in Great Lake. When full, it is certainly a lot deeper than 12 metres - that may refer to the original lake before the hydro dams were built. There have been a series of dams built at Miena to raise the capacity of the lake considerably. A couple of dams become exposed when the lake is low.

Most of the power stations are not near the level of the lakes, but they pipe the water downhill to maximise the pressure. Often the penstocks are now underground - in a tunnel - and power stations also are often underground. Tarraleah is an old power station; the lake is at the top of the penstock and the power station is at the bottom.


https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped..._penstocks.jpg Tarraleah Penstock

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GraemeCook

They used to report lake levels in percent of full, but I could not find such a reference. Hydro and the state government is obsessed with "business in confidence" which may be reflected in a "useless statistic" rather than a useful one.

---

They've done a great job of keeping it secret! I can find no reference to the depth of Great Lake. The best I can find is a fishing site that, at least in part, lists the history and gives a bunch of numbers totalling a dam height of about 20m. Another one references 20% of hydro capacity being 16.5m from full, which again suggest around 20m a full capacity. Obviously the area gets bigger as the dam fills, but if we ignore that then 80% = 16.5m, so 12.7m below full means it's currently at about 40% full.

If it's genuinely only 40% full after the last couple of wet years (was Tasmania as wet as everywhere else in Australia?) then perhaps keeping it a secret is wise..?

In my line of work I've frequently had to work in depth with mining project feasibility and financing studies.

The fact is the sale price is one consideration but it forms but one of many major inputs, including the extraction costs, transport costs, infrastructure requirements (how far as you from a port and what rail infrastructure is in place?).

Frankly, if a project is being financed then financing costs may very well be far more impactful than product prices. If you are going to have to bleed money for 5-10 years and then carry that debt, the interest rates on your financing is liable to be much more important than the sale price.

Because projects can take 5-10 years to get off the ground and start producing, which is when the price is felt, you can predict commodity prices to some extent but not with any precision. Also, a coal mining venture is going to be operating for many years and the relevant price will fluctuate over the period of operation.

Yes you can analyse and factor price into account but it's one of many economic factors. Frankly production costs and infrastructure availability and costs might dwarf in a particular project the volatility you might predict in terms of market price.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GraemeCook

I am absolutely amazed that you would make a statement like that, Paul.

One of the first rules of business is to know and understand what your competitors are doing. Competitors include markets and sources of supply. Why mine coal if you can buy in at a cheaper price? Why buy in coal if you can mine it a a lower cost? Ignoance is not bliss. It is ignorance.

I hope someone is doing some benchmarking of which you are not aware.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GraemeCook

Competitors include markets and sources of supply. Why mine coal if you can buy in at a cheaper price? Why buy in coal if you can mine it a a lower cost? Ignoance is not bliss. It is ignorance.

I hope someone is doing some benchmarking of which you are not aware.

---

Graeme

I did say that there was some information I am not at liberty to divulge. What I can say is that we have always had the cheapest coal there is. That is knowledge at some level. Whether it is sufficient, I don't know. What I do know is that, in theory, Millmerran will be the last coal fired power station to be shut down based on efficiency of running, geographical location for grid stability and cost. Whether that happens in reality is quite another matter. As a prominent Forum member states: Theory and Practice are the same in Theory, but not in Practice!

Operations in any power station (I am on my fourth station at this early point in my career) have little to no direct contact with the accounting departments. Operations and the Traders in today's competitive market do have quite a bit of interaction: At times a little more than operations would wish. As a group we would prefer the old directive of make as much power as you can. It is what we have done for over twenty years now. Foot to the floorboards to make an automotive analogy. As far as the business plan is concerned, we have no involvement and certainly no influence unless it affects plant operation. That aspect revolves primarily around maintenance and plant modification. Finance etc. is not for us. I am guessing that you have not worked in a power station so are not privy to the way things are done (or not done :rolleyes: ) there even if it is contrary to your experience.

Regards
Paul

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

Graeme

I did say that there was some information I am not at liberty to divulge. What I can say is that we have always had the cheapest coal there is. That is knowledge at some level. Whether it is sufficient, I don't know. What I do know is that, in theory, Millmerran will be the last coal fired power station to be shut down based on efficiency of running, geographical location for grid stability and cost. Whether that happens in reality is quite another matter. ...

---

No arguments there Paul.

Have just had a look at Millmerran's ownership structure and history. That benchmarking that I was refering to is more like done in Brisbane, or overseas, rather than in the plant.

You may well have the cheapest coal, but you only know that by monitoring the price of alternative sourcing. That is benchmarking.

MIT engineers create an energy-storing supercapacitor from ancient materials | MIT News | Massachusetts Institute of Technology

And then there's the LK-99 room temperature superconductor, that might​ be real - it's certainly being talked about a great deal!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Warb

... If it's genuinely only 40% full after the last couple of wet years (was Tasmania as wet as everywhere else in Australia?) then perhaps keeping it a secret is wise..?

---

Finally found some almost useful statistics in OTTER - Office of the Tasmanian Economic Regulator - was hard going as they file stuff in strictly alphabetical order - August comes before January - go figure. OTTER confirms that the total lake storage sytem is currently 40.5% full.

Attachment 529351

Note, however, another weird measurement, which actually makes sense. They measure lake levels in terms of gigawatthours - the amount of electricity that the water will generate when it goes through the turbines. This reflects that not all gigalitres are the same - one at Great Lake will fall further and generate more electricty than the same amount of water elsewhere with a smaller pressure head.

The apparently low level probably reflects:

• We have recently come out of a long term drout, and
• Hydro has generated too much electricity over a long period.

The latter statement is hard to verify because of the wall of secrecy.

Lake Gordon reached a record low of 6.7% in March 2016, and the statewide storage levels got down to 13% in May that year. Lake Gordon hasn't been anywhere near full for nearly forty years. And statistics that used to be readily available are now "commercial in confidence".
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...R&opi=89978449
Gordon Dam - Wikipedia
https://www.economicregulator.tas.go...6%20Report.PDF

Graeme

That is interesting. We visited Tassie over a year ago and were surprised how dry the country was. We had a wet year on the mainland even in traditionally drier areas of the country inland. Tassie had not been receiving it's share at that time. I don't know how rainfall is distributed across the island, but clearly, like all charts, it does not tell the whole story: Probably can't, but an additional factor would be how likely dams are to refill. Is there a wet side of the Island? Nearly three quarters of Tassie's power comes from just a couple of stations. I am sure there is good reasoning behind all that, which is not obvious from dam levels.

Regards
Paul

Hello Paul

Hope you enjoyed your holiday.

The West Coast is in the path of the Roaring Forties and is very wet, typically 2,400 mm per year, but not recently. Here are the rainfall figures for Lake Margaret near Queenstown for the last 20 years:

Attachment 529374

Most of the middle bit is over 4,000 feet so the east coast is in a rainshadow. Hobart is the second driest capiital after Adelaide and averages 626 mm a year, about half that of Sydney.

Most of Australia has a continintal climate, Tasmania's is maritime which moderates it and with the topogrophy also means that it is about micro-climates. As I write, I can see snow on the mountain less than 10 kilometres away, but we are in an inner suburb and are almost frost free. Frosts start less than 100 m from our place!

When they built power stations, the oldest were much smaller than more recent ones. Yes, 70% is in the storage systems is in two systems and three power stations. Water from Great Lake is released to the north:

• North: Water first goes through the Poatina Power Station with its 758 metre hydraulic head,
• Then the water goes down a canal then into the Macquarie River and onto the Trevallyn Power Station and then through the Cataract Gorge into the Tamar River at Launceston.

The Gordon system has a single power station with a hydraulic head around 200 metres (I couldn't find the figure.)

The next biggest scheme is the complex Derwent Scheme where water is collected from several lakes and rivers and is then "cascaded" through a series of power stations, canals, rivers and lakes - the last is Meadowbank, less than an hours drive from Hobart.

Attachment 529375


Total system is 40% full, 60% empty, and my crystal ball is cloudy.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GraemeCook

Hello Paul

Hope you enjoyed your holiday.

---

Graeme

I did, I did.

A small digression seeing as how you commented. Amongst other things, I saw The Wall at Derwent Bridge, the carved memorial trees at Legerwood, GOMA, Quolls at Cradle Mountain, Apogee winery and (here comes the relevance to this thread) I nearly saw the Duck Reach power station (1895 - 1955). :rolleyes: For some reason I decided not to go, but our daughter walked up and took some pix for me. It was the start of hydro power in Tassie and quite an engineering feat in at the time. In fact, Wikipedia says it was the first hydroelectric scheme in the Southern hemisphere.

Attachment 529415 Attachment 529416 Attachment 529417

As the majority of Tassie's power is renewable from either hydro or wind farms (at least in good times) I would think it may be ideally placed to manufacture green hydrogen. Tassie could be a little like Norway with the electricity production. Already in Norway they have hydrogen powered vehicles and by 2025 you will no longer be able to buy an ICE powered vehicle.

Regards
Paul

PS: I knew there was one other sight. The Mountain Ash in The Styx Valley.

This is how you find it: A "cairn," which in this case is a small pile of rocks, marks the trail entrance:

Attachment 529411Attachment 529412

The trees are big, but I don't have to tell the woodworkers that E. Regnans is the tallest hardwood in the world and to be so tall there is a fair amount of girth too.

Attachment 529413Attachment 529414

Attachment 529431

Attachment 529432

Attachment 529433 Photo by Paul

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GraemeCook

Attachment 529432

---

Graeme

I did indeed mean MONA. GOMA is the Brisbane art gallery, which is nowhere near as spectacular as the underground museum in Hobart. MOMA more resembles the notorious underground Hellfire caves in the UK: However, David Walsh's creation, while like Lord Dashwood's in principle, is the huge, modern version on a bucket full of steroids and has a far more aesthetic grounding, although not without some controversial exhibits.

The Quolls were in fact at the Tasmanian Devil sanctuary. I have to say I find the bad-tempered Devils quite unappealing. The Quolls on the other hand are delightful. Where we used to live, neighbours (about four Kms away as the crow flies or fifteen Kms on the road) were losing their chooks. They sat out one night to watch the chook enclosure and observed a Quoll physically lift the edge of a corrugated iron sheet to gain access to the chook house. Very strong little creatures even if the iron was rusty deformed chook shed iron. I have seen them in the wild on two occasions but only at some distance.

The "Cairn" does not show up well on Google maps or GPS either. You have to know it is there.

The feat of felling any large tree with the use of boards is spectacular, but imagine the bullock team that would have been required to haul the log! Probably why it and the other big trees in the area are still there.

Apogee was the standout winery we visited. Very understated, but simply the best. We had not appreciated bookings were required as the operation is pretty much a one man band. Nevertheless, Andrew Pirie said you are here now so let's do it. Made the day and the trip. haven't looked back or been sober since. (Not really).

Regards
Paul

PS: Digression over. Back to electricity.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GraemeCook

Total system is 40% full, 60% empty, and my crystal ball is cloudy.

---

From what I was reading, and most of it was fishing sites because they were about the only places where data was available, historically the water level in the Great Lake doesn't vary too much from year to year. I recall it was a very long time between increasing the height of the dam wall and getting anywhere near full. The "clerks" have obviously had great success in using the hydroelectric schemes both to fulfil the 100% green dream for Tasmania, and also to provide an income stream by selling the power to the mainland. But being only 40% full when heading into what most of the meteorological organisations have proclaimed an El Nino could be worrying?

I'm guessing the remaining 40% translates to quite a lot of power, but a couple of years of high air conditioner usage and minimal rainfall might cause some concern, particularly if the refill rate is low even in better times.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Warb

But being only 40% full when heading into what most of the meteorological organisations have proclaimed an El Nino could be worrying?

I'm guessing the remaining 40% translates to quite a lot of power, but a couple of years of high air conditioner usage and minimal rainfall might cause some concern, particularly if the refill rate is low even in better times.

---

Warb

This is exactly the flaw of Hydro power. Being at 40% in itself is not a concern. The uncertainty of future inflows into the dam is a concern. Abnormal weather patterns are frequently the "normal" cycle of events, and ordinarily we don't bother too much about them, unless, like farmers and electricity producers we absolutely depend on them. For those groups water becomes a big issue.

When, back in the 50s and 60s the states formed their electricity bodies, the aim was to ensure "Continuity of Supply." Since privatisation took place, with the exception of Tasmania, which remains in government hands, that is no longer the case. Private companies need to make money.

Regards
Paul

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

......The uncertainty of future inflows into the dam is a concern. Abnormal weather patterns are frequently the "normal" cycle of events, and ordinarily we don't bother too much about them, unless, like farmers and electricity producers we absolutely depend on them. For those groups water becomes a big issue.

---

As a recently retired farmer, I agree 100%. It's also interesting that the majority of lifetime and multigenerational farmers that I know (as opposed to people who relatively recently acquired a farm) all seem to say they have seen multi-year droughts, hot years, cold years and massive bushfires many times before - a memory that doesn't fit with the current view that "never before have we seen......"

It's off topic, I know, but I would also say that most of the farmers I've talked to who are believers and "want action" have got their hands out for grants!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

When, back in the 50s and 60s the states formed their electricity bodies, the aim was to ensure "Continuity of Supply." Since privatisation took place, with the exception of Tasmania, which remains in government hands, that is no longer the case. Private companies need to make money.

---

And big private companies, especially the ones on whom we all depend, are in the lucky position of being able to ask for grants and bail outs when everything goes belly-up as a result of their profiteering......

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/south-americas-largest-lake-gets-dire-warning-as-water-levels-drop/ar-AA1eBXVO "South America's Largest Lake Gets Dire Warning as Water Levels Drop"

Deadly floodwaters diverted from Beijing inundating outer cities as rescue efforts intensify - ABC News "heaviest rainfall in at least 140 years"

Mid-winter temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius in South America leave climatologists in disbelief - ABC News

....

Today, astoundingly, I saw pollen in the air.

The birds are outside chirping and tweeting as if its spring.

I'm in a t-shirt and no socks, with the doors and windows open to the breeze.

Im in Canberra. It should be freezing.

....

My thoughts go towards our crops.

I'd imagine farming benefits from predictability. When to plant, when to harvest, how much rain/heat/cloud.... this is not my backyard veggie garden where it doesn't matter so much... but for HUGE farm, where 21 million people RELY on industrial food production?

Am I concerned. Hell yes.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Warb

... I'm guessing the remaining 40% translates to quite a lot of power, but a couple of years of high air conditioner usage and minimal rainfall might cause some concern, particularly if the refill rate is low even in better times.

---

Yes; that is the worry.

Back in April 2016 the total storage level got down to 12.8% - that is not a misprint! But it recovered to 40% by early October - six months later.
https://www.themercury.com.au/news/p...99e5c1a794c57d

But now it is still at 40% - seven years later. The rainfall figures for Lake Margaret pretty well explain why.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

... and has a far more aesthetic grounding, although not without some controversial exhibits. ...

---

Depends on whether you recognised anyone? :B

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

......the notorious underground Hellfire caves in the UK

---

I grew up a few minutes' walk from those caves, yet never actually went in (as far as I can remember!).

I have mentioned before that the highest demand is nowadays in Summer with Winter having taken second place for some time. Autumn and Spring are the low points. This chart of spot prices for the year so far shows an interesting trend as Spring, a period of low demand, approaches. Up our way the winter has been mild. It would seem that the wholesale market is becoming less expensive: Will that translate into reduced retail prices? Ummm....Don't think so.

Attachment 529450

Regards
Paul

PS: I should have added that chart above is for the QLD market only.

I haven't checked, but if you can't find the storage levels on the Hydro site, it may be worth having a fossick around on the BoM website. All that data used to be freely available, but in the interests of "open government" it now seems to be tippy tippy top secret, or you have to pay for it (even though you've paid for it to be collected.)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by AlexS

I haven't checked, but if you can't find the storage levels on the Hydro site, it may be worth having a fossick around on the BoM website. All that data used to be freely available, ....

---

Quite !

Google cannot find it either. The limited data that I could find was on the OTTER website - the Office of the Tasmanian Economic Regulator.

It is all slight of hand stuff. The data has been published, but not in a logical place. If you ask why data has not been published they can truthfully answer: "We did, you looked in the wrong place." The subtext, of course, is: "Silly you. Why would any honest person be checking on what we are doing?"

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GraemeCook

Quite !

Google cannot find it either. The limited data that I could find was on the OTTER website - the Office of the Tasmanian Economic Regulator.

It is all slight of hand stuff. The data has been published, but not in a logical place. If you ask why data has not been published they can truthfully answer: "We did, you looked in the wrong place." The subtext, of course, is: "Silly you. Why would any honest person be checking on what we are doing?"

---

“But the plans were on display…”
“On display? I eventually had to go down to the cellar to find them.”
“That’s the display department.”
“With a flashlight.”
“Ah, well, the lights had probably gone.”
“So had the stairs.”
“But look, you found the notice, didn’t you?”
“Yes,” said Arthur, “yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying ‘Beware of the Leopard.”