"Might"?
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Why?
NBN should NEVER have been rolled out in metropolitan areas the way it was. It was a waste of money. All the major players knew that wireless internet on Mobile Networks would be superior to NBN in metropolitan areas before the NBN rollout was complete. Cable areas should have never been touched as it has degraded the service. ADSL services within 4km "wire distance" of an exchange should not have been touched either. Fibre to the premises is an extravagant expense when you are only aiming to supply a speed of 100 anyway. Fibre to the node would have sufficed until it may have become necessary to upgrade to 1000 or whatever.
Telstra played the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd government for fools by selling them their copper network and pits to install the NBN network in. That infrastructure was effectively worthless and left to decay before the government compensated them far more than what it was worth. They paid billions for worthless infrastructure and spent billions on "upgrading" it to something that is pretty much already out of date.
All that should have been done under NBN was to upgrade the metropolitan areas with sub-standard or no ADSL and then concentrate on the country areas. Replacing Cable and ADSL2 areas with NBN was a total waste.
The money that will be spent on improving Internet will be on wireless, and areas where 5G and its successors does not operate.
Certainly not an area of my expertise but it has never made sense to be hardwiring with the ever improving wireless technology available
This article from today's Australian sums up my position perfectly:
I thought of my father, terminally ill with pulmonary fibrosis, when I heard of another victim of coronavirus this week.
He’s confined to his house, alone since my mother died four years ago. He relies on family and friends to shop for him; they wave through the window and leave him food on the doorstep.
I spoke to him as news came in of a 90-odd-year-old woman dying in a nursing home. He’s sick of the isolation and doesn’t want the time left to him to be spent in solitary confinement. His first great-grandchild was born six months ago and he fears he will never see the boy again.
“Look, son, I’m 88 in August,” he said, cheerfully. “I’ve had a good run. Whatever happens to me from now on, it’s not a f..king national tragedy.”
My father’s attitude is, he believes, not uncommon among his contemporaries, who understand the tough reality of old age. As he put it, with his winning sarcasm, “These people in nursing homes aren’t exactly snatched away in the prime of their lives, are they? Half of them don’t know they’re there, don’t even recognise their children when they visit.”
It’s brutal, but I’m sure he’s right. If you’re in an aged-care facility you’re not waiting to be discharged and sent home in a few weeks. You’re on your way out, and the exit’s probably not that far away. Coronavirus is speeding up the process, and it must feel overwhelming to the medical staff on the frontline. Which is precisely why they shouldn’t be making the decisions.
The health of a nation is not the sum of the health of its citizens. We require doctors and nurses to focus on their patients, but politicians need to take a broader view of the myriad components of a functioning, worthwhile society.
Sarcasm aside, when did life move from being precious to priceless? We lost 20 people to the disease in March. In the same month we lost another 13,000 or so to other ailments and accidents, but let’s not worry about them.
As more facts emerge about the virus, it looks as though it does most harm to the chronically sick or the elderly, as do most respiratory diseases. And when old age is combined with a pre-existing serious illness, you’re in real danger. So the high-risk group would be wise to take all precautions, withdraw from society if they wish, and resurface when there’s a vaccine. We could devote enormous resources to looking after them.
Instead, we are asking the healthy, most of whom will be no more than inconvenienced by this latest strain of flu, to sacrifice or cripple themselves, their livelihoods, their children’s future, to preserve people whose own future is already precarious and limited. Has anyone checked with the elderly, who tend to have a more sanguine outlook, to see if this economic suicide is what they want?
As individuals it’s excruciating to assign a value to human life, and happily few of us are obliged to do so; but as a society we make those calculations all the time. Our highway speed limit is 110km/h; we could reduce that to 20km/h and watch the fatalities tumble, but the inconvenience would be intolerable. We let people swim and surf (at least we used to) from wild, unpatrolled beaches, and sadly accept some of them will drown, measuring the pleasure of millions against the misfortune of a few.
We are always managing risk, but suddenly in this panic no risk, to anyone, is acceptable.
Even news organisations have adopted this position, their HR departments issuing earnest communiques that declare “the health and wellbeing of our employees is our paramount priority”. Sorry, since when? As part of my job I have been sent, and sent others, to war zones — yes, with bombs and bullets — to bring our readers the news. That’s what I thought our priority was as journalists. Now half my colleagues in the media have emerged as trembling amateur epidemiologists, scouring the online world to find the youngest and healthiest victim to ramp up the terror and prove this disease attacks anyone, not just the old and sick, when that’s manifestly not the case.
As Carl Heneghan, professor of evidence-based medicine at the University of Oxford, said last week, “people with no comorbidities can relax; you may feel funny but the mortality is incredibly low. The wider question is how we best manage people with comorbidities and keep them safe and out of hospital.” So far our leaders’ answer is to paralyse the country and the prospects of everyone in it.
In Sweden, never thought of as a nation of daredevils (they’re so safe they gave us ABBA and Volvos), the vulnerable are sequestered and cared for. They might have to sit things out until a vaccine is developed, while the rest of the people are visiting restaurants and bars, more or less as usual. So far it seems to be working.
No such luck here, though. Our reckless, hysterical governments tumble over each other to impose ever more ridiculous constraints on our liberty, supported by police forces that interpret their authority in a fashion sinister and absurd at the same time. And they have the audacity to quote “the Anzac spirit” as they order fit young men to cower in their trenches.
Some of us are not surprised that our elected leaders and their unelected enforcers have been found wanting, but what really shakes your faith in society is how meekly their ludicrous commands have been obeyed. Did anyone really think more than 500 people at Sydney’s Bondi Beach represent a threat? And if so, why the same 500 limit around the corner at Tamarama’s beach, a fraction of the size? And why a zero limit now? Why can’t a solo sunbaker lie on the grass in a park without a police car moving him on? Why can’t a boat owner take a run up the coast? Why can I only buy “essential” goods? Will PC Plod soon be inspecting my shopping bags for truffles and Toblerone?
Save your comments; I know there will be plenty of people rushing to justify any extreme measure that “saves someone’s life”. The curtain-twitchers are busy in Britain, dobbing in neighbours who leave their houses twice a day or have their girlfriend over. They’ve adapted to their police state very comfortably. Fortunate, perhaps, that Churchill’s World War II promise that “we will fight them on the beaches” was never tested.
The driver of this madness is that the data we are working with, as has been pointed out by many epidemiologists, is fundamentally flawed. If we don’t know how many people have been infected, we don’t know the mortality rate. One of our panic-stricken pollies was on the radio on Monday warning people that even if they felt fine, they could be walking around spreading the disease. A disease with no symptoms that doesn’t make you ill? Terrifying.
But those symptom-free people will never be counted, just as all the people who have avoided burdening the hospital system with their minor coughs and sore throats will never be counted, so the mortality rate is inflated. So too in Italy and Spain, where everyone who dies with the disease is recorded as dying from it, no matter whether they have been wiping their feet on death’s doormat for months.
You don’t need to be good at maths or medically trained to realise all these numbers are wickedly inaccurate. If the infection can manifest itself with mild symptoms or none, how on earth can we declare how many are infected? How many run-of-the-mill flu infections go uncounted each year? I’ve never been sufficiently troubled by a cold or flu to go to the doctor, so I’ve never featured in any statistics. Perhaps I’m freakishly lucky, but I doubt it.
Instead we have a simple division sum, but one where the denominator may be out by a factor of a hundred, or a thousand. If one in every 12 people infected dies, that’s a nightmare. One in every 1200, with 99 per cent of them already gravely ill and of advanced age, it’s not so frightening. And are the millions thrown out of work a price worth paying?
John Ioannidis, professor of medicine and epidemiology at Stanford University in the US, believes if we hadn’t given this new COVID-19 its own special scary sci-fi name and counted and tested it separately from ordinary colds and flu, “we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average”.
Instead, for many of our fellow citizens, this will be the year everything they’ve worked so hard for — their businesses, their savings, their jobs and dignity, their marriages, their sanity, their hopes and dreams and joy — evaporated.
One day we’ll emerge blinking into the economic wasteland we have wilfully created, but next year winter will come around again, and with it more flu, no doubt with another horror mutation.
So what will we do then? You can only kill yourself once.
Well said, Paul. It's reminiscent of another quote that defines a true Democracy - not as a system that grants power to the majority, but how well that majority listens to minorities.
Another thing that should be borne in mind is that not everyone has internet access or a mobile phone. It has become prevalent here in NZ that you are now unable to contact any Government Agency (and a lot of NGO's too) other than by one of these means. Since retirement, I do not operate a mobile and recently tried to contact the IRD to sort out a tax code issue. I first tried their website which required me to open an "account". Reluctantly I did and began to follow the instructions to be able to lodge an enquiry. Then we got to the security check. "Please enter your mobile phone number." I have none and that's where the attempt stopped dead with the suggestion I ring the helpline. This I duly did and got a recorded voice asking me to key in my IRD number - done. "Next, we need a security check to verify you are who you say you are. Please state your mobile phone number." I don't have one. "Sorry we do not understand that response. Please state your mobile phone number..." End of call amid much swearing. The only phone number listed in the White Pges actually resulted in me talking to a very nice lady receptionist who said she was unable to put me through to anyone that could help and that I should call the very number I had just spent 15 frustrating minutes working through to a dead-end. So, back to basics, a snail mail letter (there is no email listed). I dug out the letter from IRD which advised me about the need to change my tax code and - lo and behold - no mailing address! Not a PO Box or Private Bag to be seen. So s...f 'em until this lockdown is over.:(( Pete
That article has serious flaws and will do significant harmQuote:
The driver of this madness is that the data we are working with, as has been pointed out by many epidemiologists, is fundamentally flawed. If we don’t know how many people have been infected, we don’t know the mortality rate.
One does not need to know the infection rate to indicate significant non-normality in death rates.
Just compare the number of deaths per day relative to the usual death rate.
In Lombardy with about 10 million people and about a 90 year longevity, about 300 persons should be dying per day, instead they have days with 600, 700, 800 persons dying.
No flu season in the last 90 decades loses 50 skilled doctors and removes 2000 nurses due to quarantine from a single region like Lombardy
And that is all happening with VERY significant population measures and drastic medical interventions.
I'll leave it to the medical modellers to work out what would have happened if little or nothing was done.
The article appears to have been written some time ago as the references to Sweden and other places having relaxed social distancing and relative normality no longer apply. Sweden now has as fast a COVID19 growth rate as the rest of Europe and even Singapore just a day or so ago has gone from a relatively relaxed open stance to a seriously hard shutdown harder even than us.
Let's see what happens in 3rd world countries where people are packed together like sardines and basically zero medical intervention when this thing really takes off.
At of yesterday, 59131 people lost their lives to this virus in 3.5 months and that’s only the reported numbers. Let’s say 5% would have died anyway due to old age, pre existing conditions etc.
Thats still 56,114 PEOPLE that died due to this virus and it’s not done with us yet. Not all the dying are old.
If that’s not a wake up call to people who think this is nothing to worry about, well ????
We lost 20 people to the disease in Australia in March. In the same month we lost another 13,000 or so to other ailments and accidents
13,000 in one month, and that's just Australia. We only have 26,000,000 people...
I think to trivialise the seriousness of the situation when it is only a little way past its infancy is somewhat shortsighted, to say the very least. If it turns out to be not too bad after all, in say a couple of months, then that will be different, and I'm quite sure there will be recriminations aplenty.
OTOH, if it turns into the disaster that it is feared to be brewing, it will then be interesting to see what the current doubters have to say...assuming they are still around (because they are more likely to expose themselves to risk through not being diligent).
We'll see.
And that is 20 people who wouldn’t have died if this virus was not existent. If you look at the numbers of deaths, they are accelerating. What the numbers would have been like if these isolation measures hadn’t been brought in is only conjecture . I remember one health professional saying “ if at the end if all this, numbers are low due these measures and people say what was all the fuss about, I’ll be more that happy to be called a scare monger”.
When was the last time Italy used its Churches as morgues, Spain used an ice skating rink as a morgue,
Its not just about deaths either.
When was the last time Central Park was a field hospital, When was the last time London turned a mile long exhibition centre into a hospital.
I reckon we appear to have got off lightly, but only time will tell.
The article that TCCP123 posted is quite thought provoking.
I really do try to read articles and opinions of those I disagree with.
In this case, it mirrors exactly what my own father thinks. I disagree with him.... a lot :D
One aspect that hasn't been considered in the writers contemplations is that people don't just get a sniffle and light cough. They get heaving damaging respiratory damage, kidney problems, loss of small and taste... and I'm reading more and more of STERILITY in men, and in some brain damage.
It might not kill you, but like polio and measles it can F*ck You Up.
This is the mystery. So much is unknown. So much was covered up.
China has done the world no favours with its actions. It is not incompetence, or a system overloaded. Chinas secrecy and suppression are directly responsible for the situation we are now in. If they had been open, sharing, responsive and not engaged with their BS, then we'd have the deep information that we all need.... Now....
Instead, they encouraged/allowed their citizens to flee the country, spread this disaster everywhere else, then shut the borders. These are not the actions of a friend. This was deliberate. They are the actions of a certified ENEMY.
When this is all dealt with, there must be an accounting.
20 Australians for 31 days in March.
10 in the last 54 hours.
OK I give up. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink. You've obviously made up your minds and nothing is going to dissuade you from that.
All I can say is I (and I'm not alone though I appear to be here) hope I'm right and the rest of you are wrong, and that's not so that I can come back and say I told you so.
See you down the dole queue :)
Pete
I so understand.
While I have a mobile phone, as in I own one, there is no credit on it and for the rare times I use it (twice in a big year) the number has often been removed because it has been inactive for too long. Also I would have to find it if I needed to use it. Right now I have no idea where it is. To all intent and purpose, I don't have a mobile, but like you I have got to a point in an online registration where entering a mobile number is mandatory. Usually that is where it all finishes for me.
Sorry Graeme Cook: Off topic, again. :-
As this thread, which I believe is very informative (information can be good and bad) and very necessary in these troubled times, has become a little fractious at times, I felt you would not mind a little light relief:
Attachment 470899
:rolleyes:
Regards
Paul
I also hope you are right, but the data is not looking good.
Most people don't understand that the whole thing is on a hair line trigger and things happen too fast to try to contain things after they have happened. Even though they are not always right I'd rather ride on the side of caution based on what a consensus group of medical experts say rather that a bunch of lone rangers etc.
Major difference with Ebola is its asymptotic transmissions is much lower than COVID19
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...110-X/fulltext
I haven't been into a shop since we started wearing masks 2 weeks ago and FWIW my undies are mostly very saggy/baggy/thin Rio's.
SWMBO will not deal with them so I have to wash my own.
Thing is, we are only just getting started and are likely to have to survive more than one dose, there will be other (mutated and possibly more virulent) waves.
My BOTE suggests that about 50% of the older people that are dying would have died sometime in the next year. BUT as Neil says, even if you are 75 years old you still might have liked to live for 6 more months.
This doesn't take into account the loss of many skilled medical people being lost.
For these, the number that would have died this year is much lower - maybe more like 5% and it will take decades to replace these people.
eg Anaesthetists take years of training to get up to speed.
Even if you escape COVID19 you could be affected for the rest of your life with it because of the loss of specialised medical people removed from the medical pool. When you need urgent surgery in a few years time and are told sorry we don't have enough anaesthetists, go to the end of the queue, you may finally be sorry you dodged quarantine, had a few quite ones with mates, or did not wear A BASIC mask to the supermarket.
Wife’s been busy!
Attachment 470902If
Me ~33 years ago working in our second generation ultra clean air facility at Uni.
The pipette contains triple distilled nitric acid along with an environmental sample being deposited and then evaporated from a rhenium metal mass spectrometer filament.
Note two pairs of acid washed plastic gloves with cotton liners
Attachment 470903
The mask (made by SWMBO) was not to stop me breathing anything in (although HNO3 is not nice stuff) but to reduce the amount of contamination I might breath onto the sample.
The main contaminants in human breath that concerned us was sodium and ammonia and while we were not analysing for these elements they suppressed the detection of others. Even an open weave T-shirt cloth like this reduced the amount of Na and NH3 present down to the tiny amounts normally present in the HNO3, despite the triple distillation.
I should ALSO add there was a 1600 CFM ultra-HEPA (99.997% >0.3 microns) clean air flow directed down from the ceiling directly over the sample which generated an air curtain between the operator and the sample. This air was carried away down to a plastic floor with lots of holes in it and then scrubbed and recirculated back through the HEPA filter.
Later we adopted a plastic shroud between the sample and operator and loaded samples under a microscope.
This was very awkward so the plastic was eventually replaced with a perspex shield
Attachment 470904
I love seeing super dooper mega accurate science being done and the techs are wearing plastic sheets and home made masks.
Its excellent stuff. Shows that basic can be good.
I found a pair of undies that were not too stained and are suitable for a mask.
The beard coverage is excellent.
Attachment 470929
Today's spreadsheet attached (as at Saturday 4th April, 23:59 GMT).
Points to note:
- Countries with 2000+ cases account for 66% of world population. 3 days ago it was 44%, 6 days ago 35%
- USA cases up 43%, deaths up 75%, and the death rate is climbing significantly.
- Spanish and Italian increases are modest (cases and deaths) but the death rate is still climbing (due to the time it takes to die).
- France, UK, Turkey, Canada, Brazil death rates are all blowing out.
- None of the 2000+ countries have a death rate <0.5%.
- European death rates are really bad overall, occupying 7 of the top 9 spots. Same for infection rate with 12/12 spots, and 16/19 spots.
- Asian infection rates are all towards the bottom.
- No African or Central American countries with 2000+ cases yet.
- Australia's new case rate has dropped significantly in the last 3 days to 14.2%, but deaths and death rate have increased (due to the time it takes to die).
BTW, a favour from someone please: can you tell me if the spreadsheet gives you the same colours as this screenshot? No need to check each cell, just approx will do.
Attachment 470938
Had a chat with my Italian cousin who owns/runs a small electric motor factory near Padua. They are all OK and because electric motor replacement is deemed essential he can still run his factory albeit in a reduce operational state. His factory is right next to his house so no travelling for him to work but they do provide a delivery and replacement service for which he sends out one of his young blokes. All his workers have to wear masks and gloves and the have cranked the ventilation up.
Had a scheduled meeting with my wife’s Superannuation Financial adviser yesterday (was planned back in February)
Funds have been hit but I’m still on track to retire beginning of next year.:2tsup:
He explained these “dips” happen approx. every 10 years - 2001, 2007/2008, 2019/2020 so don’t panic. Interestingly, looking at the DOW ( lots of figures available) it took about 18 months after 2001, 4 years after 2007/2008 to come back to pre slump figures. The DOW last month was down 26%, 2007/2008 down 33% and 2001/2002 down 16%.
When we were cleaning out FIL’s papers, we came across a chart his father had copied from Tritch 1872 predicting panic years, depression years and good years. 2019 is listed as a panic year :oo:
Had a takeaway pizza last night, and a local GP was also in the pickup queue, standing on his "X". Discussed masks.
He said that medical masks reduced risks of infection but did not eliminate them. Once a mask got wet - from breathing, sneezing or coughing, or any other cause - then it lost its effectiveness dramatically. "A saturated mask actually increases the risk of infection." [That surprised me, too.] He emphasised that masks had to be changed regularly. Under normal circumstances a mask was fine for two hours, was probably saturated after three hours, in absolute best case situation it might take four hours. After that it was counterproductive and gave a false sense of security.
He said that at the moment they had "almost enough" masks, but no reserve stock; they have to be frugal. What happens if their is a glytch in the supply? Do we - doctors, nurses and receptionists - take unnecessay risks, or do we decline to see patients. We have chosen not to see any new patients; we are overloaded.
They were also preparing for a shortage of masks. Moderately soiled masks were being laundered in a washer/dryer and then vacuum sealed in batches of twenty...... "while we work out what to do..." if they really are forced to reuse masks. He said that they tried dry cleaning masks but the smell made everyone feel sick. He said the prime problem was washing, drying and storing the masks in sterile conditions. A GP's practice is not equipped to do that.
He said that he and his staff were all wearing "work clothes" at work, changing to "travel clothes" to go home, showering immediately on arriving home and then donning "home clothes". Washing hands with hot water, soap and brush hourly, washing hands between patients, and hand cleanser "when needed".
He and his colleagues are exposed, his family is indirectly exposed, they are very knowledgable and they are taking it very seriously.
He said that always, all gowns are washed every night. Gloves are also a potential problem and they cannot be reused.
There has been a massive discussion on this in the professional and academic literature over the last 100+ years. The concensus seems to be that there is an investment cycle and that cycles last between 7 and 10 years. But it is impossible to predict when they start and when they end. Its "good" to be in equities (shares) on the rising market, and "good" to be in cash (bonds, bank deposits) in the troughs. But as you cannot predict the transition, by switching to cash after a trough has started then you are locking yourself out of the future rising market.
Just think about it; if you could reliably predict the timing of the transition, then you would very quickly be a billionaire!
He wasn’t trying to predict rises and falls nor suggest that I try and predict same, he was just giving examples. His message was simple - they happen - don’t panic.
The other move the Govt has taken on Super is to halve the minimum amount you have to take out. So, if you can live on less, you can now draw less and reduce the drain on your Capital.
I agree.
If anyone can't get their grocery shopping done in under that time then they're either seriously dawdling in the aisles or going to the wrong supermarket.Quote:
Under normal circumstances a mask was fine for two hours,
The protocol my son and SWMBO are using using with reusable masks is to use a fresh masks and new gloves when social distancing is unavailable like shops. When all shopping is done the masks are removed with gloved hands and placed in a plastic bag, and the gloves are disposed of. When they come home the masks and plastic bag are hung on a line outside and saturate sprayed with a 80% meths water mix and left to dry out. When we go out like to exercise dogs we always take fresh masks and gloves in case we unavoidably have to interact with someone. I don't go into any shops etc. The tear day I did fill the car with diesel wearing disposable gloves but SWMBO went in and paid.
MC bro has come up with a few masks designs of his own.
Sport model
Attachment 470967
Race model - with built in BMH - only suitable for keeping out large bits like rock, nuts and washers.
Attachment 470968 Attachment 470969
From my experience nobody can pick the very top or the very bottom, well not consistently. Try catching a falling knife, if you get it wrong it goes badly wrong.
I did manage to sell out of tech stocks 2 weeks before the dot-com bubble burst in 2,000. I was heavily involved with the Internet things at the time so had some insights.
Pulled back while still above ASX 5,000 before the big drop in the GFC (that was a train wreck waiting to happen for all to see) and went back in hard starting in Dec 2008.
I had pulled back modestly well before the current downturn, not that I or anyone else could see the virus or its impact coming, but mainly because of the overvalued US market and uncertainty about what the Twit might do next, like start a war somewhere. Good move to get re-elected, but bad for everyone and everything else.
Have been currently buying back in since 23 March and leaving some powder dry for further falls, but that could go badly wrong.
But invariably I leave a bit on the table when I sell down before the peak and leave some on the floor buying back in late on the upswing. Selling down is the easier bit. Judging when to buy back in is the challenging bit. It's a mug's game; one wrong call and you will be joining the queue at Centrelink.
And, you can at best only do a bit better than staying invested at whatever you decide is your risk level, which is what sensible people do.
Excellent advice there (in my unqualified opinion) from your adviser Lappa in regards to taking advantage of the temporary reduced minimum amount you are required to draw down on your super. If you can live on less, reduce your draw down to protect your Capital until it recovers. That should be easier while eating out is curtailed, interstate and overseas holidays are off, and the car is mostly parked in the garage.
Note: If it is not already bleeding obvious, I have no qualifications or certification to give anyone any financial or investment advice. I recommend that everyone get independent professional advice before making any financial decisions. I have found the free and expert financial advisers from my Industry SuperFund fund have been excellent, that is in my unqualified opinion.
Anyway, I'm getting a bit off topic here.