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Quote:
Originally Posted by woodPixel
And the WHO are now also doing an hmmmmm... on that too.
WHO considers changing guidance on wearing face masks | World news | The Guardian
I have a few spare in my workshop, but they are not going to last long if this goes on as long as they are suggesting.
Might have to resort to my 3M respirator... that's going to scatter the other shoppers in the Woolworth aisles!
The face mask wearing advice was IMHO 99% founded on preventing vital limited supplies of masks being hoarded by the community over the needs of medical people that really need them. Once masks are readily available I reckon everyone should be using them - they might only be a 1/2% factor but at this stage in the battle we need every 1/2% we can t get.
This vid shows that just talking loudly generates lots of droplets in the air.
Microdroplets pose coronavirus risk | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
Very informative article on the BBC discussing the many causes of the apparent variances in fatality rates between countries.
Coronavirus: Why death and mortality rates differ - BBC Future
They explicitly compared Italy and China.
The crude fatality rate in Italy is 7.2%.
The crude death rate in China is 2.3%, less than a third that of Italy.
"... But from the ages of zero to 69, the two country’s case fatality rates are comparable, note researchers from the Istituto Superiore di Sanità in Rome....".
The difference in fatality rates occurs almost totally in those over 70 years of age.
China has comparatively few older people. "...In 2019, nearly a quarter of the Italian population was 65 years or older, compared to only 11% in China....".
A seventy year old today would have been born c.1950. The life expectancy at birth for someone born 1950-55 was:
- Australia - 69.37 years,
- China - 43.83 years,
- Italy - 66.52 years.
Essentially this is suggesting that the most vulnerable Chinese would have already died before they could be a victim of the coronavirus.
[Source: UN figures quoted in ]Bad title - Wikipedia
Another major difference between Italy and Oz is that many Italian seniors live with their extended family. My Italian mum (has moderate dementia, also thinks she still lives in Italy) was aghast when we set her up in in a Dementia care facility. "Whats the point of having 10 kids when then send you off to go a live with strangers etc etc. . . . ."
But it's not just about losing seniors, losing half a hundred specialist doctors and scores of nurses from just one hospital, is dare I say more significant - these people will cost a fortune and a decade to replace. It's like losing pilots during the battle of Britain - these people are true heroes. "Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few"
...Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
Not quite, longevity is a complex thing and early removal from the gene pool could be due to many factors; famine, displeasing the political masters, playing with too many crackers, diet, lifestyle, being in the way of a large village cart, helping out in the vietnamese war etc. The seniors that get towards the end of their life could be just as fragile and health compromised as any other seniors population.Quote:
Originally Posted by GraemeCook
OTOH my limited experience of travelling in China was that I did not see anywhere near as many obese and overweight people as I did in Italy, Oz or USA. Lots of seniors also outside doing organised exercises in public spaces (or I assume working manually on small farms etc).
The average senior Italian that lives in cities would live a life of minimal exercise not unlike AUS/Oz. Those that live in the countryside are probably fitter, they live in multi-storey houses so have to climb multiple flights of stairs. Many are gardeners and walkers and those that live anywhere near mountains often have an interest in walking/hiking even climbing.
BobL you've left out the possible major variable -- exposure to communicable diseases like polio, measles, mumps, whooping cough, etc -- these are largely childhood killers get infected early in live and either die or survive with compromised immune systems.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
VACCINES were the longevity enhances in the west well before they were available in places like China.
Less one zero.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
And, if you compare that with other regions with populations of about 60m then Hubei Provence did OK as a first responder without the benefit of learning from the experience of others, although China did experience some of the earlier epidemics.
Not that I'm a great fan of China's political system, but what I think is impressive is that they have kept the epidemic to a very low level in their other provinces which when combined have a population of 1.4bn people, twice that of Europe. Had Europe and the US (our main sources of infection) paid closer attention to how China was handling the epidemic the world would be in a much better place now.
Here's another interesting Graph with a 5 day average
From Is Australia flattening the coronavirus curve? Look at the charts ... | Australia news | The Guardian
Attachment 470825
Here's another interesting Graph with a 5 day average
From Is Australia flattening the coronavirus curve? Look at the charts ... | Australia news | The Guardian
Attachment 470825
I saw that this morning. We are looking pretty good over the last week, so let's hope that continues. Given that it apparently takes 3 weeks to die, the deaths graphs would take a while to show the same trend, but OTOH our deaths have been so minimal (so far) as to probably be classed as insufficient data.
A few people have asked me about my Italian family so thought it would be easier to respond here.
As of this morning all are OK. I have 9 Uncles and Aunts (all over 70 except for one aunt who is a couple of years younger then me and unfortunately she is the frailest of the lot) and dozens of cousins in Northern Italy. None are in Lombardy.
Mums family are mainly in the Veneto region (second highest testing per inhabitant in the world after Iceland, with ~100 deaths per million) which is next to Lombardy (more than 700 deaths per million). The older relatives might not even tell anyone if they had COVID19 - they are very superstitious about disease. One of my Aunts died of Lung cancer about 5 years ago and I met her 3 times while she had it and she never mentioned it once - she called it "her illness". The younger generation is much more open about it.
Dads rellies are mainly in Trento in the alps so are much more isolated and also have fewer medical facilities. They have 173 deaths/million but they also have an older population profile. They readily admit if they have have something.
Everyone is seriously locked down. It's been quite sobering to be peeking occasionally into the heart of the abyss. The FB traffic is relentless mix of humour, craziness, sarcasm and tragedy. I am amazed no one I know has not been struck down.
Finally met someone today who knows someone with CV.
Sorry Bob but...
Jacinda Ardern for PM
??? Worldometers is a Chinese website based in Shanghai.Quote:
Originally Posted by woodPixel
Prolly best not to do your banking wearing that.Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilS
12 hours since the last post????
Interesting article about analysing COVID19 data and the caution require in interpretation.
Scott Morrison says the coronavirus curve is flattening. Are we turning the corner? - Fact Check - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
Basically says we're too early in the infection stage to draw many conclusions.
and
As I said before this could be the small wave before the tsunami.
Yes, it has gone a bit quiet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Chesand
Have we all gone down with it?
I wasn't game to ask that question.Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilS
I see QLD now has 835 known infections. That’s out of a population of 5,000,000 or 1 in 6000. Let’s make it 2 in 12,000 because it sounds better ��.
So venturing out yesterday I feel I was really rolling the dice. However to have become infected I would have had to have contact with one of those two people out of the 12,000 I interacted with yesterday, then I would have had to catch it from them, then I would have had to be in the “at risk” group, then I would have to be one of the 4% in the “at risk” group who will probably die.
That's a lot of "ifs"
But of course if those 835 people have been identified then it would be safe to assume they’re not walking around freely interacting with other people.
But wait I hear you saying, what about the sleepers? Of course they are the great unknown and the thing that will continue to give this thing legs. There could be thousands of them out there. You just don't know...
I see the WHO has been exposed for what it is, a politically motivated organisation driven by cheque book idealism.
Reminds me of a Roger Rogerson quote when describing the NSW police force back in the '80s "The best police force money could buy" :-)
Sorry, you are WRONG.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
Partly correct, but mostly wrong.
This bit is correct, mostly:
You wouldn't have had to interact with them, you would have just had to be exposed to droplets containing the virus and had them find a path to your bloodstream. So they sneeze and get goopies on the handrail going into the library, an hour or two later you come past and lean on the rail to get up the stairs easier, then you scratch at your nose as you open the door. Bam.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
This bit:
isn't necessary to be one of the statistics.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
Spouting stuff like this leads me to believe you think this is all $hits and giggles and you're safe. You aren't. Sure, you might come through this all ok at the end of it, but your blase approach can have serious consequences for others in the community if you don't take it serious.
You can't avoid being one of the statistics, we're all destined to be part of them. What I'm trying to get you to understand is that the statistics are on your side.Quote:
Originally Posted by poundy
Well it appears that "wearing masks" will soon be almost as strong a message as "wash hands".
I hope they back it up with a half decent education campaign.
Coronavirus can spread through talking or breathing, prestigious panel tells White House - CNN
CDC are apparently going to be making a statement about masks in the near future.Quote:
Dr. Harvey Fineberg, chairman of a committee with the National Academy of Sciences told CNN that he will wear start wearing a mask when he goes to the grocery store.
"I'm not going to wear a surgical mask, because clinicians need those," said Fineberg, former dean of the Harvard School of Public Health. "But I have a nice western-style bandana I might wear. Or I have a balaclava. I have some pretty nice options."
WHO are also re-considering the whole masks for the public thing.
OK they are in desperate straights but the Mayor of New York has also made masks a recommendation.
I'm thinking about wearing mine while using Zoom. :D
https://www.woodworkforums.com/attac...6&d=1585384236
If nothing else encourages to question things surely this does. Two weeks ago the "experts" were telling us masks were a waste of time. Now the experts (which apparently now includes the mayor of New York) are saying they are almost mandatory. Is it the same experts? Is it different experts? (and who gives them that expert qualification)?Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
The message I've tried to spread here (to no avail it would seem) is to question EVERYTHING. Don't believe anything you're told or read without giving it the utmost scrutiny. Not everything the experts say is fact, often it's an opinion clouded by the same fears that drive the rest of us.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
Good idea. Computers are full of viruses.
OK you can leave the Mayor of NY out if you like but Fienberg is representing the NAS and I would not be sneezing at them. Besides the Mayor of NY is a very smart fella on the end of a very pointy stick in the middle of a serious battle field and will be reflecting the advice of his medical experts.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
We need to keep in mind that there are hidden agendas and things will often change (rapidly) in time - you cannot expect even expert advice to stand still otherwise we'd still be in the flat earth zone. When the national stock pile of surgical masks was run down and totally incapable of meeting the needs of medical staff it is not unreasonable to promote the idea of not wearing masks.Quote:
The message I've tried to spread here (to no avail it would seem) is to question EVERYTHING. Don't believe anything you're told or read without giving it the utmost scrutiny. Not everything the experts say is fact, often it's an opinion clouded by the same fears that drive the rest of us.
Every Pandemic is different and it takes time to understand its transmission, infection etc. The latest bluff is, "wearing masks can be dangerous" but so can washing hands incorrectly, so we mounted a major washing hands campaign. So - get thine ass off the ground and mount a "how to wear masks campaign" it's not that hard and at least the half reasonable will pay attention and maybe do it, the others . . . . . . well, at the very least it may thin the idiots out of the herd.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
As I understand it, Bob, masks reduce the risk of infection, but do not eliminate it. Thus there is a risk of creating a false sense of security, especially among the more foolhardy.
Secondly, there is the issue of the supply of masks. There is a major supply shortage and available stock should be reserved for front line emmergency workers. They are accepting quite high risks as part of their professional responsibilities - we, collectively, must not reduce their protective equipment.
I know my GP is concerned about supplies of basics - masks, gowns, gloves and hand sanitiser.
The numbers involved are prodigeous. A few weeks ago when things were just ramping up, the Minister for Health announced that the government had ordered 100,000 masks - a big number! The Dentists Association president then said that dentists alone used 9.5 million masks a year. [Comment: Suppose a dentists sees 20 patients in a day - both he and his dental nurse are masked = 40 masks per day - 250 working days in a year = 10,000 masks. Just one dentist might routinely use 10,000 masks in a year.]
Until there is an adequate supply of masks we must reserve the limited supplies for our front line professionals.
Hidden agendas? You don't have to look very far:Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
"China stockpiled more than 2 billion surgical masks and essential medical supplies in a global panic buy now impacting the worldwide shortage of protective equipment."
"How WHO Became China’s Coronavirus Accomplice. Beijing is pushing to become a public health superpower—and quickly found a willing international partner."
Doesn't take a real good mathematician to put 2 + 2 together here.
I not sure pointing fingers, apportioning blame and chewing the fat over conspiracy theories does much towards an individuals immediate or even longer term problems.
Or make your own. It appears even a bandana or a pair of (newish - unused) undies is better than nothing.Quote:
Originally Posted by GraemeCook
We just had our first mens shed Zoom meeting with 10 attendees, a bit disjointed, but otherwise OK. Its been working better with the smaller group (3-4 people) I have been using Zom with over the last 3 weeks. Interestingly SWMBO was on Zoom with her pals at the same time - seemed to work fine.
Current WHO guidelines for masks. When and how to use masks
"If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection."Note it says "need" , it doesn't say "should not" wear a mask otherwise.
My take on it is pretty basic
- how do you know if the dude or dudette standing in front / behind you in the supermarket checkout lane doesn't know they are infected, or someone who is a confirmed COVID19 infectee who has broken quarantine?
- how do you know you are not infected and not showing symptoms and spreading it around to everyone else.
"Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing."
As far as SWMBO is concerned being so susceptible to allergies that is about 50% of the time.
"Masks are effective only when used in combination with frequent hand-cleaning with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water
" If you wear a mask, then you must know how to use it and dispose of it properly."
This should be a part of a comprehensive education campaign.
Of course it goes without saying that masks are not an excuse to go slack on everything else - like WW masks they should go on top of everything else.
What I am still trying to articulate to you is that if everyone is complacent, because they think that the statistics are on their side, then the problem gets worse, not better.
If you're talking about the chances of dying, then sure, I agree that the chances are not 100% just because you went to the supermarket/library/someplace where others were, but that is not the issue. The issue truly is how quickly we all get hit with this, and stopping that from causing a worse mortality rate through lack of resources to cater for the infection rate.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
The guidance is clear - minimise interactions and be cautions.
We all know that cars kill a lot of people on the roads every year. If we were worried that this was a real issue, we would say don't ever go out in a car ever again; but the usual guidance is that yes there's a clear risk but be cautious and take care. That's not saying that removes all risk, just that it lessens it. This situation isn't like normal, however - it's more like vehicles on the road have no traction, and the guidance is now if you're on the road more than necessary, you're not contributing to prevention.
I totally disagree. People and organisations need to be held to account. Not holding them to account allows them to flourish (as has happened with the WHO) and does nothing to stop events like this occurring in the future.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
That's why we're in the pickle we're now in. Research their 2009 response to the swine flu pandemic or the Ebola outbreak in 2014. This is from an organisation with more than 5500 employees and a budget in the billions.
We should question what is being achieved by this cumbersome organisation, and whether its vast budget could and should be better spent.
I've gotta tell you, it's tiring. I've had an absolute # gutful of listening to people WHO probably wear slip on shoes, seriously.Quote:
If nothing else encourages to question things surely this does. Two weeks ago the "experts" were telling us masks were a waste of time. Now the experts (which apparently now includes the mayor of New York) are saying they are almost mandatory. Is it the same experts? Is it different experts? (and who gives them that expert qualification)?
If, from the very start of this fiasco we had some of that ....what do you call it.....???? oh yeah..leadership, we wouldn't be within cooee of where we're at, at the moment, medically or financially.
Unfortunately that person already has a job...in the US.Quote:
Originally Posted by Feckit
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
If you express the 'known' infection rate as 1 in 6,000 residents that can lead to false thinking like, as an individual, I have a 1 in 6,000 chance of catching it. Besides the issue that you have identified about the unknown number of real carriers, every carrier can infect multiple people. The estimates of the transmission rates (R0) for this virus range from an average of 1.4 to 4.0 other people for each carrier (source here). The transmission rates can vary for obvious reasons. What the 6,000 uninfected people need to ask themselves is, how many of us can be infected by just one carrier. If we take say 2.75 for example as a possible contagion rate, then the answer would be 2.75 people, so now there are 2,181 uninfected people per carrier, roll the dice again and there will be 2,181 ÷ 2.75, and roll it again.... that is the nature of exponential growth.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
The stats will quickly not be on our side!
The other problem I have with expressing infection rates in terms of 'what are my chances of catching this virus as an individual' is that it is lends itself to self-centred and counterproductive ways of viewing the problem. When the herd is being attacked what is need is herd thinking and action to reduce the problem. We are seeing it in spades worldwide and rightly so. Measures such as doubling rates are a far more useful and appropriate way of measuring what is happening to the herd*.
If you calculate QLD's cases expressed as a rate per million of its population then the focus can come back on the collective where the solutions have to be found. It also allows more readily for comparisons against other populations, So, it's 167/m of QLDers, below the 207/m for Australia, but just above 165/m for NZ, and 130/m for the world, and way above the 57/m for China.
*PS - I know some individuals hate to be considered as part of a herd, that is until they need access to the scarce resources that only a herd can provide, like ICU beds during a pandemic.
All international organisations are cumbersome because there are always cultural issues, internal and external politics, language and self interest problems involved - there is absolutely no getting around these. I've raised/discussed this several times before in these forums. The practical question is would we be better off without them - on balance I'd say not. I've been on international science panels for over 20 years so I know a fair bit about how they work. It's 90% international relations and 10% science and can be very disheartening. But I would still rather have them than not.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
Anyway, no mount of finger pointing, and moaning and groaning about this is going to help individuals over the next year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
Really.... That "quote" was widely used in the promotion of the Underbelly TV series. But attribution of that "quote" actually dates back at least to Mayor Richard Daley in Chicago in the 1950's, but its origin was almost certainly earlier.
It's worse than that poundy. The current research concludes that it can live on hard surfaces like plastic and stainless steel for up to 72 hours. However, I think the chances of Tccp123 getting it from the library door are nil (and not just because they might be shut).Quote:
Originally Posted by poundy
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
Well, on a difficulty level of 2+2 which should appeal to you: the situation in NY (esp the city) is much more dangerous than anywhere else, and much more dangerous than it was 2 weeks ago. One of the key factors in acquiring the virus to the infection point is HOW MUCH virus you are exposed to. This is why medical staff are in so much danger - they are surrounded by it. As the case numbers in NY get out of control the situation becomes much more dangerous. So because the curve is not being helped or helpful in NY they have to go to the next level of wearing masks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
There is NOTHING wrong with questioning EVERYTHING. However, there is EVERYTHING wrong with doing NOTHING while you are waiting for your answers to appear.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
As for not believing what I read: when it comes to the words of someone who doesn't understand that even at the most basic level, accountants are completely different to economists, you can be absolutely guaranteed that I won't believe what they say, especially quotes without sources, and other quotes that are heavily edited to make it appear quite different to the original meaning.