Sorry, X is level of contagion (average number of people infected by someone already infected) Y is % death rate.Quote:
Originally Posted by justonething
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Sorry, X is level of contagion (average number of people infected by someone already infected) Y is % death rate.Quote:
Originally Posted by justonething
Lots of discussion else where about how contagious it is. R0 is the symbol that is used and currently its anywhere between 0.45 and 3.5. Anything over 1 is not great as it implies that it will keep spreading.
Another (worldwide) perspective.
The WHO COVID19 daily report says that on March 1, 53 persons died from COVID19
On average across the year on every day during 2019;
~26,000 died of cancer
~25,000 people died of hunger (~20,000 were kids)
~24,000 died of heat disease
~ 4000 of diabetes
~ 3700 of motor vehicle accidents
~30X more people very sadly took their own lives
~2700 were killed by mozzies
The ordinary flu kills somewhere between 800 and 1800
~1300 were killed by fellow humans
~140 were killed by snakes
Interestingly at my grandsons birthday party in a park yesterday a kid spotted a 1m long tiger snake in a clump of bushes near the main car park about 50 way from the main playground. We all just kept an eye out to stop the kids from heading over that way and to warn newly arriving people in the car park to not walk that way. About 30 minutes later we could no longer spot the snake and we reckoned the hoards of screaming kids drove the snake away.
... and 35,000 people starve to death every day. 16,000 of which are children.
.... 3.1 million children under five every year
(sources are wikipedia on Starvation)
Yet, our focus is on ourselves.
The influenza virus kills up to 60000 Americans a year. Every year. There's a vaccine for that, but of course people are afraid of catching autism :rolleyes:.
This little virus will spread, no matter what. It will kill mostly elderly and infirm, and some young and healthy. There should be a vaccine in 12-18 months, but beware of catching autism instead of dying.
The main issue for those of us dealing with it is going to be overwhelming demands on limited resources. My advice would be to go out and catch it early, while there are still ICU beds available.
(This is tongue in cheek if you haven't worked that out and caught autism from a vaccine. Point is, these respiratory viruses aren't new. This won't be the last either. Keep calm, live healthily, and make sure you've spent the kid's inheritance).
Drifting off topic but reading about vaccines I remembered this little gem.
I can just hear the sound of the mind breaking every time I read it.
Attachment 469424
BoneInspector - today, you win One Internet.
I'm keeping that!
Haven’t seen this mentioned anywhere but 2 useful outcomes of COVID19 are a massive reduction in industrial air pollution over China (and hence the whole northern hemisphere) and a significant world reduction in high altitude dust from reduced air travel could produce some global cooling. At some point I wonder if the benefit of these could outweigh the death rates from COVID19?
We’ve stocked up our pantry ( or to be truthful my wife has).
I had a look at my medications and guess what, two had ‘Packaged in China’ on them.
The other had nothing so it probably is also.
So I bought two months worth, just in case.
H.
Apparently a lot of our meds come from India and are just repacked here in OZ.Quote:
Originally Posted by clear out
I currently take 14 pills a day (8 different types) for kidney (yes I only have one) heart, blood pressure, diabetes, hypercalcemia, sarcoidosis and now possibly osteoporosis! At the rate I'm going buying meds this year I look like I will finally make the $1600 safety net that means I can get scrips for $6 (as opposed to up to $44) for the rest of the year.
BUT
if you buy more than 1 of the same med at the same time the subsequent ones don't count towards the safety.
I figure I'm a prime candidate for a COVID19 casualty anyway so I'm not worrying too much about it.
I really dont want to add too much on this thread - I'm fairly sure people know my mindset.
However, I will add that for endless seizures (essentially untreatable brain tumour), my wife takes 5 different anti-epileptics.
4 weeks ago we went to the chemist and I asked for 6 months supply of all of them.
They had to ring FOUR different suppliers to get the Carbamezapine (Tegretol). ALL of them were out of stock.... this was 4 weeks ago. It took 4 full days for them to get everything in for us.
This anti-epileptic is used by literally every single person with epilepsy or a neuronal issue... its ubiquitously prescribed.
We, obviously, forewent the Safety Net - but not having this medication is simply not an option for my wife. Without it its unending seizures (100 in a day).
NOT ONE company makes any of these drugs here in Australia.
From what I can tell from Googling, most of the precursors come from India and China. They are mixed/prepared/packaged in Malaysia or the Philippines. They do a mighty good job of it too.
For those who must take meds - get them now.
I suspect... hmmm, fear.... that this supply chain will break down pretty badly for a while. If we think not being able to get Shellac, nail or bolts is a bummer, wait until your blood pressure meds run out.....
edit - I will say, the chemist, in BobL's case with the $44 vs $6, is they WILL order your stuff in and keep it in store for you WITH your name on it. It is yours. Its reserved. You dont pay for it, but it is there for you to pick up. You simply need to ask them to do this. Obviously, one has to trust the chemist has done this - but I have seen them do this with SWMBOs chemo meds when she did the 6 month course last time - PLUS our local chap said he would do this if we asked for other meds.
Fortunately if I was to stop any of my meds for a while it would not be immediately life threatening. I can control my diabetes for a month or so without meds by cutting out virtually all carbohydrates. Hypercalcemia can also be handled sans meds but requires me to cut out as much Ca loaded food as possible but long term will screw with my possible osteoporosis. These two combined doesn’t leave much I can eat especially if fresh food becomes scarce. But it won’t hurt me to go on a diet as I am about 25 kg overweight! This would also help my heart and BP.
Ive gone for about 3 months on one meal a day last year and it was not as bad as I thought it would be.
could be time to start the diet again!
BobL, I think a good hard fast would be ...beneficial ... for quite a few members :)
Me especially! :) :)
Shush. You shouldn't suggest these sorts of things. Like Garfield, I enjoy my food too much ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by woodPixel
SWMBO still has vertigo and I've still got my ankle in a moon boot so no driving for either of us.
SWMBO could with some effort walk to the nearest small supermarket about 500m away but they closed down 12 months ago and that place is now medical spa!
After a few grocery shops by friends and relatives a couple of weeks ago we gave online shopping a try and it seems to be fine - actually very convenient.
Yesterday SWMBO placed an order at order thru Coles, including for a pack of toilet paper, which we needed.
The groceries were delivered today but no toilet paper - oh well we do have a sort of bidet arrangement so I'm not fussed
BUT
SWMBO was somewhat distressed and promptly tried a bunch of other online places - same problem.
Eventually I went down the shed and found 10 rolls of paper that I use to wipe things down like my MW lathe and mill.
Hopefully that will last until the shops are restocked.
I thought you were going to suggest sandpaper!Quote:
Eventually I went down the shed and found 10 rolls of paper that I use...
People are afraid - I took trip to Woolworths today (Regional Victoria). Very busy, crowded.
The staff were sanitising and wiping down shopping trolleys and baskets.
Toilet paper all gone
Baby products i.e. nappies severely depleted
White rice all gone
Cat litter all gone
Salt bulk all gone only expensive small boutique salt left.
Several "sorry this item is out of stock" signs decorating empty shelves.
I have a well stocked pantry of beans, rice, pasta and spices many people do not.
This is only the start and will get worse.
It's sure weird, TS
Was in the local pharmacy on Saturday morning and noted they had plenty of toilet paper on display.
"It's weird," said the pharamacist, "We haven't sold much toilet paper, but we have had a run on paracetamol and isopropyl alcohol. And so has our isopropyl alcohol supplier."
Fear is not rational. We are seeing panic buying.
I do not know what to make of this Covid-19. Governments says its nothing no worse then the common flu (not wanting to cause a panic) but then whole regions/countries are being quarantined. I think many people feel this dissonance between what they are being told by officials and what they see and fear.
All we have to fear is fear itself.
About one third of my northen Italian rellies are in lockdown towns. It’s weird because shops, restaurants and bars can open during the day but patrons are supposed to stay 1m apart. Organizing Italians is a bit like herding cats so I can’t see that working. Most of the Southern Italian working/living in the north have also already headed south so that’s been a real success!!
This will be terrible to say - but perhaps Italians will now get their wish that immigrants leave :)Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
My dad stays in Sorana Italy. It is REVOLTINGLY cute. So gorgeously picturesque. Beyond belief actually. He does stone work, restoration, helps during several of the "collection festivals" (stones, nuts, beans, etc). Rebuilds/repairs peoples "new houses" (they are only 500 years old).... stays quite some months, quite frequently.
He was talking with some of the local residents many years ago (I was going to say old residents, but they are all old) and they retell stories of frequent invasions, influxes, wars.... there is a saying, I cant recall it properly (non parlo bene l'italiano) but its "they come, they go"..... it is said with a blasé look and a shrug!
They are a tough bunch. I suspect they'll ride it out like every other disaster that's befallen them... with stoicism.
Edits: I've many stories that were recounted to me about the area. Rich in cultural and historical heritage beyond belief. Here is a picture if you are interested.
(I've a nice container of Sorana beans too. Collected right from the hard rubble and rocks they like to grow in. Tasty!).
that would be as disaster as just like many other first world countries there would be insufficient low level job workers.Quote:
Originally Posted by woodPixel
I posted this video to the other discussion, but I felt it *may* be worthwhile doing it here.
This is the Los Angles container port. It handles about 20% of all container movements into the USA.
According to Wikipedia... (3,000 ha) of land and water along 43 miles (69 km) of waterfront, 9.3 million containers moved per year, 27 cargo terminals, 86 container cranes, 8 container terminals, and 113 miles (182 km) of on-dock rail.
It was posted 3 days ago by a longshoreman.
Well.... um.....
https://youtu.be/M1pFHh4EYxI
Today SWMBO asked me if I thought the government should be doing more to combat the Coronavirus and, going on from that, whether the government should be providing additional stimulus to bolster the economy. A parallel would, I think, be the way the GFC was tackled. Now I am sure it could have handled better than it was, but at least some attempt was made. Australia came out of that crisis better than most countries.
My reply was that the government should take the reins and give a detailed and truthful appraisal of the situation. Hell; That might be requiring a bipartisan approach. This might go some way to allay the fears of the fearful or if indeed they should be afraid it will be a heads up for everyone. The government should develop some balls and tell it how it is. By this I mean explaining whether or not it is a more severe disease than any other flu or illness. We have been encouraged in recent times to have flu vaccinations. Is Corona virus a problem only because you cannot at this moment in time vaccinate against it? Is it more contagious than other flu (let's restrict it to flu rather than smallpox, ebola etc)? Do more people die from Corona Virus than other fluor even the common cold? Is it being called Covid 19 because a Japanese car company thought sales might suffer on one of their most popular models?
At the moment if you live in america you are far more likely to be shot dead than die from the flu so have we got the whole affair out of proportion? Having said that I heard on the radio this morning that the share market took a king hit and woodPixel posted that disturbing picture of Los Angeles where it looks like the angels have deserted the sinking ships (how's that for some mixed metaphors? :rolleyes: ) and clearly there is an issue bearing in mind that if California were a country in it's own right, it would be the sixth largest economy in the world! Of course the oil debacle is not helping.
I am reminded of the phrase that "perception is reality." If the world thinks it is in dire straights, it will find itself in dire straights, particularly bearing in mind that the world economy is fundamentally a bubble where everybody hopes the debts will not be called in.
Sorry: More questions than answers.
Regards
Paul
There is probably a better set of information than the media.
I'm sure they are trying to publish what they can get through their editors, owners, government head stompers and outright censorship. Maybe I'm wrong.
The picture in the world is vastly different that being reported.
Here are some of the links I've bookmarked and view each evening.
1 - "Subversive" information - https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus
2 - "Official" information - Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)
3 - A bit hit and miss. Many off topic rants and a bit of anti-certain-countryism but not bad - COVID-19 Discussion and COVID-19
4 - The CDC - Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) | CDC
5 - CDC info presented graphically by Johns Hopkins - https://experience.arcgis.com/experi...beeeee1b9125cd
6 - and another independent view with more (not necessarily better) information - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
On the 3 links above, there is a rather violent turf war going on with what appears to be an enormous amount of Chinese censorship, bulldozing, demands for apologies, cries of "racism", disinformation, historical revisionism and outright shilling.
I'm not into that game or personally entering the discussion on it - but its pretty blatant that the CCP has employed *armies* of people to post spin, re-profile events, put positive spin on how the CCP has handled things, diminish their responsibility in the S-storm, deny/lie about events and/or blame others. Its not very subtle (the wording is all the same and the communist-propaganda-talk is all textbook) and the attacks are always personal (Ad Hominem).
The moderators on Reddit are apparently having a bit of Whack-a-mole with them.
BUT, Reddit is an excellent source of man-on-the-street viewpoints and I've been aware of events WEEKS ahead of the MSM (e.g. I was first discussing this on 15 Dec with others).
It appears these are the facts so far:
-- 80% of people will catch this disease
-- 15% of all people will experience an extreme reaction that will require hospitalisation
-- 6% of all people will die
These are a bit rounded off, but the stats haven't changed that much... other than the ones from China, which show a MUCH rosier picture that every one else.
Be safe friends.
Humm . . . . .that's a bit bold.Quote:
Originally Posted by woodPixel
From what I have read these are not facts but top end estimates
About the only fact we do know is that nobody knows those numbers.
If you decide to discount the Chinese numbers then we don't have enough data in to get those numbers as the vast majority of infections have occurred in just the last two weeks.
The first German case was reported on Jan 28 and they have ~900 reported cases and no deaths.
Contrast that with Italy and Korea both with with ~7000 cases and 366 and 51 deaths respectively
The numbers are jumping around too much
None of these have reached peak infection so until that happens we simply won't know
I'm not even sure the CDC knows what's going on as they are probably being nobbled by the Trump Administration so I would take anything said by them at this stage with a grain of salt. They also completely cocked up their first sets of tests and had to redo them and are appear now well behind the eight ball and unfortunately worse so in their own country.
They are the CDC's stats.
Johns Hopkins too.
Here is the link: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) | CDC
Make of it what each person may. I won't dispute anyone's opinions, experiences or thoughts as I'm trying to find the human side of it - not the governments (whom I inherently distrust).
Personally, I KNEW three people in 1xShenzhen and 2xWunhan. SZ said he reopened a factory but had to reclose. Biz is at a 100% standstill. I lost contact, completely with the Wunhanites. They were telling me of dead people "stored like cordwood" at the hospitals. Since 2 weeks ago, nothing. Others have told me the same of their Wuhan contacts.
I dont believe the Chinese figures one single iota. I believe is is complete fabrication and will be between 20x and 100x worse.
Like I said the CDC stats are suss because they have no clue about what is going on in their own country - they simply have not done enough testing. Maybe they are trying to get Trump of his behind to do something because from what I can see they are not doing anywhere near enough.
It will be very interesting to see how this pans out across countries. There will be huge finger pointing and blame games being played. Unfortunately the ultimate winner may well be the economy that gets back on its feet fastest.
I dont believe the Chinese figures one single iota. I believe is is complete fabrication and will be between 20x and 100x worse.[/QUOTE]
This too my mind is one of these scary things,we are not getting the truth from the Chinese government,
Or possibly even our own government??
Cheers Matt
Again sheer speculation at this stage.Quote:
Originally Posted by Simplicity
We live in interesting times.
My comments have been divergent and I dont wish to paint myself as a tin-foil hatter :) :)
BUT, someone made an interesting comment once, in passing.
It was fairly simple and flippant, but it stayed with me. It was essentially:.... why would you lock up 750 million people because 3000 died?
Id imagine in a city of 30 million (Wuhan) that that many people must die of falling down stairs every day. Or choke on hot chips. Or go under buses.
Lets try to turn this situation on its head....
What would be so bad, that needed stopping with such incredible urgency, that it required giving your entire economy a heart attack, paralysing it for 2 months and locking up 700, or 750, million people, in their homes?
Do you really think its to slow down a COLD/FLU that they don't really know much about, that officially killed 1000 people at the time.... or is it possibly something much much much bigger than that?
Imagine I'm a Chinese CDC pleb and say to The Boss... "Gee boss. Seems there's a problem. A Lot (50k) people are coughing badly and 1k have died over the last month. Can I stop the entire economy of China for 2 months, Just In Case"
Boss: "No. No you fecun can't" would be the reply.....
OR I say "Boss. The hospitals are chocka-block, 1 million are sick, 50k have died today and it seems to spread to people just being the in the same room for 5 minutes"......
Boss: "Hmmmm, you have my attention...".
Really, do you believe to ONE SECOND that out of 750,000,000 people under quarantine that 3,000 have died?
Really? Lets do the maths. 365 days a year. A person lives 100 years (its a miracle!) that means that for 750M people, 20,500 people die of OLD AGE every day.
and we lock down a civilisation for 2 months based on 1000 dieing over a period of weeks?
Nope. Nope. Don't buy it for a second.
What's are south Korea stats? They have the most complete testing regime believe
Don't know if this is true or not??!
Chinese woman describes Wuhan virus patients ... | Taiwan News
Just watched an interesting doco on the Spanish 'flu epidemic of 1918/19. Here's a link YouTube and it's worth a look to see just how difficult it was to contain even then when people travelled far less. My Dad lost his eldest sister aged 19 to this pandemic in 1919 (he was 12). The doco explains the effects of what was actually Swine fever which jumped from animal to humans (as seems to have happened in Wuhan). It started in the US and was carried to Europe by US soldiers joining WW1. Interestingly, it was called 'Spanish 'flu because Spain was alone in reporting the outbreak and spread of the disease in its borders to the world news media. All other countries seem to have imposed reporting restrictions. The symptoms were apparently more akin to Haemorrhagic fever (like Ebola) than regular 'flu. Pete
something no one has thought of...watch the population increase in 9 months time.
Countries forcing/encouraging their people to stay at home, nothing to do except be safe, be happy and bonk :rolleyes: to your hearts content....so petes sake lets look at the funny side.
other option is of course this virus is one way to prevent over population :oo:
It actually won't help much in population control as it preferentially kills off older folks who were going to die soon anyway.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonyz
Effective population control would prevent births happening i the first place.
I wonder if it will effect the divorce/separation rate?
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
Mother nature has got this one wrong then and should lift her game.
Something to stop the scourge, the plague, the infestation of people is perhaps going to be a welcome thing.
Over population is everybody's baby.