Climatic Research Unit
And if they are so sure of their info why are they refusing FOI requests???
http://camirror.wordpress.com/2009/11/21/test/
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Climatic Research Unit
And if they are so sure of their info why are they refusing FOI requests???
http://camirror.wordpress.com/2009/11/21/test/
Doing research you can not disclose intermediate results as they prove nothing. The best way to explain this is to explain random chance. This is shown by dropping grain from a height. The first few grains bounce in any direction and there is no method of reasoning. But the more grain that falls, the more a pattern develops and the more accurate will the conclusion be. If you put out simple figures for one year, you may find the earth cooled that year. That means absolutely nothing, nor would one year of increase. Its the slow pattern thats important not the ravings of those with causes.
Sceptic or supporter there are a number of things that give me concern with the current situation:
Climate change science has become a new religion. The speed with which any that claim an alternate view is damned is terrible. The language is that of McCarthyism. You are either one of us or in the extreme fringe.
The abuse of the "science" is also ugly. Supporters claim the science is now set in stone, that models have proven the future of climate change. Yet those scientists that choose to publish alternate findings are immediately accused of bias. Often with the accusers sourcing their own evidence from other sites that then base their evidence on yet more sites. Sometimes finding the actual source of the information is like chasing the cats tail.
People are so desperate for their new found cause to be cut-and-dried. They need the villains in black and the good guys in white. Nothing in science (especially those involving predictive models) is as simple as that. Yes, there is now historic data that can show warming/change but there is also data that shows the opposite. The problem is that now dissenting data is hardly afforded proper peer review so it’s true value is difficult to assess. That is terrible science. I’m the first to admit I can’t understand all the papers I’ve been reading lately, that’s what I need the scientists for. The problem is that I’m no longer confident the scientific community is actually engaging the thorough peer review anymore. The dissenting science I see is damned so quickly I can rarely find any useful information on actually why it was or wasn’t discredited – such is the volume of the screams of “Heretic!”.
Finally outside of the climate change there is the ETS and Copenhagen. At best (and when has something proposed by any government achieved 100% of its goals) Australia’s 5% reduction target would get swallowed up twice a year by Chinas growth alone. To those that say China is looking at renewable energy, China is looking for ANY energy. They are headed for 80 years of economic growth that will require an astounding amount of energy. Most of this will be nuclear if we’re lucky and coal if we are not. The fact that nuclear energy has low carbon emission is just a coincidence for China (and India) it’s the power they want.<o></o>
So we are left with an ETS. Surely it’s easy to see the driver for this is the amount of money that can be made by monetising the carbon. This ETS now excludes farmers, subsidises industry and leaves the consumer with no knowledge of the level of its financial impact and the government with little control over the price of carbon (that tax we will all be paying). The Copenhagen treaty as it stands means a country gives up its rights with regards to the price of carbon and the amount it owes the lesser polluting nations to an unelected body. The third world countries will sign the treaty as they stand to make hundreds of billions of dollars. Rudd will sign it because he has a large ego and an addiction to destiny. The question is who else will follow.
Sorry for the rant but this is something that gives me great concern. Leaving my kids with a possible environmental burden slightly improved for a definite economic burden with no relief in sight is a bad bad thing.<o></o><o>
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Which is stupid as an ETS is anti-renewable energy..Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike B
To build renewable energy systems first requires "dirty" energy..
To build a dam requires lots of oil....To build a nuclear power plant requires lots and lots of oil and coal for the material and labour..
An ETS will make all these things much much more expensive to build so we don't build as many...The ETS is like cutting off your perfectly good arm and then trying to build something..
If any country is allowed to increase emissions then the stuff will simply be built over there..Can we even trust other countries to correctly audit their emissions, especially if most of their energy requirements are internally generated... For example, the mythical country of Romonon tells us they used 100 million barrels of oil in a year which they sourced from their own oil wells, when in fact they used 1 billion barrels...
I don't believe in this fire, it can't hurt me.
http://www.cruzis-coins.com/tmp/fir001.jpg
Taken 10 mins ago as the rainforest burns at our doorstep, at least one house has gone up in smoke ........
I agree. Look at the so called scientifically based stories that hit the press. Some research might point at evidence of the cause of a particular cancer. The press changes it to a cancer cure being imminent. Anyone remember interferon? It was going to be the cure for everything including the common cold.Quote:
Originally Posted by rrobor
I'm still sneezing every year :D
Cheers
Jim
Have faith Cruzi :D. Seriously though, keep safe.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cruzi
Jim
sure i belive in global warming.
do i belive people have anything to do with it. NO
everything goes in cycles it will heat up a little then it will cool down a little.
how mutch has teh globe warmed really?
has someone done the research and got all teh temps for every day everyware in the world for teh last 200 years and actualy worked it out?
if so lets see teh results.
what about teh 200 years before that? how do we knoe things hadent been colling down before.
after all tehre have been ice ages before.
watching teh news over teh weekend and all that u see is bushfires. they are just teh inn thing at teh moment. bushfires have been happening forever. the reason they are so bad now is because teh government has spent to long listening to greenies. and people are idiots no matter how bad teh bushfire is our house wont burn because we know what to do and dont have trees and shrubs growing right up to out front door.
I absolutely agree with you there carl.
MikeB, well said.:2tsup:
Alot of discussion going on in here with people quoting from websites run by anti global warming lobby. Also alot of shooting down of the ICPP and its activities. I wonder how many in here have actually been to the IPCC website and downloaded and read any of their reports? Theyre not too heavy reading for anyone who didnt flunk high school science.
IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Yep, I've read all the assessment reports. They were what led me to seeking out alternate points of view on the matter. In terms of modelling vs reality, I think there is more room-to-move in the IPSS's likely and very likely scenarios than many would care to admit.
In the context of this discussion I am frankly more concerned about the efficacy of the government's proposed solutions to those scenarios that the IPCC modelling suggests.
Australia's ETS is hobbled and vague and the final version is still unknown (assuming the Coalition do come to the party) only a few weeks away from Copenhagen.
Copenhagen is going to be all about the money, how can it not be? This is the power that exists between nations. Will these diplomats be thinking about the environment once the keynote speakers are done and the real deals begin behind closed doors?
My scepticism in not so much about climate change as the abilities and motivations of those involved in developing the solutions (treaties or globalised cap and trade of carbon) that we will have to deal with for decades to come.
Hells Teeth Cruzi....stay safe mate and keep us updated.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cruzi
Instrumental records exist back to 1850 and are readily accessable......no need for me to spoon feed you the information when the fact youure posting on this forum indicates that you have the skills required to do a simple Google search.Quote:
Originally Posted by weisyboy
Fire crews worked until small hours of the morning, the town is still blanketed in smoke, not sure of extent of damage, been keeping out the road to let emergency services do their bit.Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwigeo
It looks to be that no-one was seriosly hurt that we are aware of, as for the person screaming at the fire engine that their house was burning, I hope their property is OK.
Well looks like the Extreme Tax Scheme is a foregone conclusion....Open your wallets as it is going to cost more then $500 a year for every man, woman and child in Australia..
Unless you are poor then you get 120% back, or you are a coal miner you get $7 billion in compensation...
GG Liberal/Labor coalition...
And my hourly rate will be going up accordingly, not for my profit but so that I can keep my head above water to pay for the tax. :~
waldo, that'll push up inflation and my mortgage repayments, please dont.
Mind you I could probably deal with it if my pay goes up three fold too.
I'm just the messenger, instructions came from higher up. Mr Dudd.:buttkick: Me
Well in the up side, at least he doesn't have absurd looking eyebrows.
I gave them a trim last night. :2tsup:Quote:
Originally Posted by Gingermick
And then you won't hired..Quote:
Originally Posted by Waldo
This is the stupidity of the scheme... The only way to reduce emissions immediately is to either
A: go offshore
B: reduce productivity.
I believe a combination of the two will happen... Consumers will not do without the aircon or TV, so they will give up little luxuries to start with, like going to the cinema, eating out at restaurants etc etc...This then puts those businesses either out of business or they have to raise prices to stay afloat..
I won't have any issues with that at all.Quote:
Originally Posted by .RC.
Either way if you work in what could be termed a luxury job, you may find it tough as lower living standards see people spending less on luxuries..Quote:
Originally Posted by Waldo
Quite ironic krudd spent so much to keep the retail industry going, now is going to slow it down...
better get your orders in now before they put the price of everything up.
i know i will have to once again raise my prices.
Yup we all will, but I betcha the Chinese dont, or the Thais or whoever prints all of the magazines, books etc. I pity our kids, maybe we should move to China now to give them a head start in life.....
Firstly the sky wont fall in, in the short term the impact will be less than the GST, secondly for many businesses the concessions granted will mean little impact on pricing. It was only ever going to be energy intensive industry that would feel the brunt of an ETS and in most cases we don't actually have a lot of heavy industry, the standouts are companies such as those producing aluminium which we subsidise heavily anyway.
The aim of an ETS is to reduce the amount of harmful emissions into the atmosphere. The sky didn't fall in when the poms banned coal as a heating fuel in the 1950's, generally the more efficent and modern the plant the less pollution it emits and the more power produced per tonne of coal as the combustion process is better designed,
The fallacy is the belief that other sources can't produce cheaper power, they will in time, humans aren't stupid and the brightest amongst us will come up with cleaner more sustainable processes that will eventually replace coal as the major source of power. Nothing says we can't have some coal fired generators, its the quantum of emmissions that's a problem we need to reduce the coal we burn. The idea is to reduce the six major greenhouse gasses we create each year, no one suggests we can eliminate them.
Those advocating their prices will shoot up because of the ETS are overlooking one major point, you don't actually know what effect this will have on your inputs. There is as much given in concessions as taken, the economic impact will see some but not all costs impacted, for many price setters the impact will be so minor as to not be noticed. If you look at how much the price of materials like steel have soared in recent years as a result of demand created increases you would need to have rocks in your head to suggest that an ETS is going to destroy markets and business, if it was going to happen it would have happened during the mining boom. If demand lessens under an ETS we could even have price falls.
You can indulge in idle threats about price increases all you like, all it high lights is that there is a deep lack of understanding of how this is meant to work. The mechanism means if we can lower our domestic use of power and bring on lower polluting generating capacity the ETS will become redundant, this is not a permanent scheme, it is a lever that will last quite a few years but if we get on top of the problem it will be phased out. The economic system we operate under will allow that, it is also worth mentioning that transport costs are one of this countries greatest cost barriers, yet no one is complaining about massive taxes on fuel effecting our international competitiveness, but they do and the ETS is a drop in the bucket in comparrison.
I'm not suggesting we all agree, but I am suggesting that the last few posts show a level of emotion filled ignorance that serves no constructive purpose.
I agree john, most people/politicians are just too short sighted and put profits first.
I was recently made redundant from One of the Steel companies primarily because they only made $270 million profit.
When/If I get another job I will be putting solar panels on the roof to reduce my energy demand (and bills).
Then you have to go without something else to pay for that..Solar panels are not cheap, in fact they are extremely expensive..Quote:
Originally Posted by robbo266317
So what will you go without??? Maybe a night out on the town.. This then hits the likes of restaurant owners or pubs.. See the slippery slope you get on... The ultimate ending is a lower standard of living for the people who have to pay..
Why is it poorer households are not responsible for their emissions and in fact will be compensated to the tune of 120%??
Not one of the pro ETS people will answer that question...
The legislation is a complete failure....It has been politicised that much that it is bad legislation and will be the downfall of australian society..
A sign of those with worthless opinion is to demonise others by using names for the PM like Dudd this is usually done in the absense of anything substantial to support a claim, the other is that the world will end, economies collapse or in your case the downfall of Australian Society. In reality upward price pressures create inflation, we have had it with commodity pricing and housing in recent years but society doesn't seem to have collapsed as a result. No one is talking about punitive punishment or marginalisation of sectors of the community. We are talking about a pricing mechanism allowing community and business based change. This is not the grounds for anarchy, it is the base for change we can all take a part in. sensible discussion should be reasoned and balanced not emotive and hysterical.Quote:
Originally Posted by .RC.
Kiwigeo: It sounds to me like you were doing some interesting stuff there, and that makes me question my own sanity :D
Johnc:Less impact than the GST ? Good luck with that. I'll check in in 5 years and see how everyone is getting on.
Amazing, I look away for 5 minutes and another 3 pages :) To those who object to this thread going on and on and on...perhaps you should just...not...read ...it ?
You know it occurred to me this morning that the gas companies are the logical people to finance bluegen units. I am sure they could make the numbers work to pay for the purchase and installation of the units in clients houses and sell them electricity, hot water and gas below current levels and make a profit on the whole shebang. It'd aleviate the upfront costs to consumers and of course reduce pollution. Might even make the grid less prone to failure...
Maybe I should send some letters to some gas companies and see if they are looking at it.
How the heck to do you get that one? :?Quote:
Originally Posted by johnc
There have been no concessions made for small business, I turn on a switch to fire computers on etc. and it will cost me. Watch the likes of Lateline Business and you will hear that, and rightly so, that those who produce our energy will not be able to continue to bear their costs of an ETS and will have to pass them on. That means you and I will be paying more, which means everyone will pay more. As my operating costs go up so does what you get charged.
Logic dictates the outcome. A wise man wrote something along the lines that, to every cause there is an affect.
The reference is to large businesses, at the moment it looks as if the heaviest users of power are not really going to have their bottom line effected, certainly not in the near term anyway. As a small business owner I know how much our electricity bill is in relation to other business costs. Even if it doubles the impact on final prices is fairly minor, wages costs and the like are where the real money goes. If large business is largely uneffected we shouldn't seem any of our business input costs rise.
The main ones effected will be middle income earners, and most will be in a position to bring about changes to minimise that impact. That's what it is about.
I actually am not that keen on the proposed ETS myself, its just that a number of people seem to be writing ill informed and unsubstantiated rubbish about its impact. All this does is raise the fear factor when what we all need is to understand what it means to us. That is still to be set out in a manner we can apply to our daily lives.
The worst outcome is that the power companies may use this as a lame excuse to jack up prices, and that is something to watch for.
Yes, but cost increases from electricity have an affect which flows on for the short term they are exempted (from what I understand) but for how long will the $7 Billion dollars last. It can't go up the chain and it has to come down, as to will any other industry affected by the ETS - be it coal, desal, oil etc. Any product or service, which in some part of it's manufacture or delivery of relies on the above in the transportation or other will see those costs rise.
No-one can be expected to wear the costs and not pass them on.
The only one thing exempted from the ETS is primary producers, which was the only one smart thing that has been done - but for how long. And why should they have been included at the start of all this, because their cow :badair: ?
We would have to put the cows out to pasture to feed on grass to curtail their emissions. That would mean we wouldn't get the steroids and antibiotics and other crap the feed livestock. We'd have to pay more though, and I'm happy to for meat that's better for you.
The only position they will be in will be broke..Quote:
Originally Posted by johnc
Why do the bogans get compensated by 120%... Cmon John, why are the bogans not responsible for their emissions???
I wonder where the $7 billion in compo is coming from??? Oh that's right krudd is going to pull it out of his ####...:no:
Thats the first time Ive seen the poor blamed for anything in this debate, who are the poor? The Vets who fought and died for us? Those troublesome pensioners who paid taxes all their lives? Those irresponsible scurrilous disabled people? The infirm, hospitalised, etc. The poor are being compensated as they have the least resources to face the price rises Waldo has identified. I think it is pathetic to resent those who have less than us. :((Quote:
Originally Posted by .RC.
Solar systems can be had for $7k, see here Solar Power Systems as the price of electricity goes up this will lead to a shorter payback period per installation. No, I havent done an NPV but here in NSW it is becoming compelling.
Both of the "L" parties went to the last election with a carbon trading system. If Howard would have won and kept an election promise (a dodgy if... ) his system would look very similar to Rudd's as they are both beholden to basically the same donors. In politics the piper must always be paid. But at least St Steve Fielding isnt making the decision for the country.
I think an extensive study will find that agriculture and especially forestry would be carbon sinks. The question is how do you measure it. CSIRO Is doing work to reduce bovine flatus, did you know most comes out of their mouths..... Cow kissing, a whole new kinky pastime.
Sorry but I don't think you would get much for your $7k. The system they had there for $7600 (after rebates) will only supply about 50% of the needs of an energy efficient house and how much extra will it cost to make your house energy efficient?. To fully run a house off solar you are looking at well over $20k and that is assuming you already have an energy efficient house.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sebastiaan56
Vernon,
My house isnt energy efficient and Im getting some quotes to see how the numbers stack up. I havent done it for few years so I will be curious to see how much has changed. Last time it would have cost $12k based on our household consumption. I am also counting on Reese keeping his promise of wholesale input tariffs. We dont have air con but have insulation, we run gas, solar hot water, etc.
Just pondering, if the rebate to the "poor" is 120% is that the expected inflation rate? At least the inflation will keep interest rates down and the money collected will pay of the deficit.... great silver lining huh..
The only information I can find with any credibility show low income earners subsidised 100% not 120 % and food prices going up 5%.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sebastiaan56
As for the offensive notion that low income earners are bogans that takes us back to demonising a section of the community for no valid reason. Bogans are across all income sectors and will pay according to their income levels. I think the subsidy will be more like
the family payment, so if you make improvements you could make a profit.
A home once you calculate the feed in tarrifs should be cost positive at 2kw or around $12,000 installed when I last looked. But I stand to be corrected however I wonder if you get more bank for your buck if you look at improved insulation and draft control along with fluoro and LED lighting solutions. Retro fitting double glazing is an interesting concept, and one we are about to commence ourselves.
Why doesn't the government force people to recycle??
Why doesn't the government cut paper usage and move to online transactions??
I am not against doing something to reduce emissions, but letting market forces dictate what happens is plain wrong and a cop out by the government..