Solar Panel Feed in Tariff

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Originally Posted by Bushmiller

I think your "guy" may have misled you.

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That wouldn't surprise me in the slightest! I did say that I assumed it wasn't true.....

I agree with just about everything you have said, with the possible exception of public ownership being of power being a better option. Even that I'd like to agree with, but sadly my experience of EVERYTHING that is publicly owned is that it doesn't work very well. The concept is great, but from what I've seen it becomes an expensive, slow and fairly ineffectual way to run an organisation. Humans, as we've said, are profit/greed driven. In a private business that results in those at the top "driving" to make more profit. In the public sector it results in those on the shop floor doing as little as possible, because there's nobody above them driving to make more profit! My first job (not in Australia, and many years ago), a fill-in when I first left school and was considering a job in medicine, was as a hospital cleaner in a public hospital. A friend of mine took the same job, and after a month or so we were approached by the union rep and asked to slow down because we were making everybody else look bad. We didn't think we were putting all that much effort in to it, but seemingly we worked far too hard. Eventually we were reassigned as a "special mission" team to re-finish floors or deep-clean (as they call it in these Covid times) particular areas, that way we could not be directly compared to anyone else. Eventually I moved in to I.T., and the same applied, whether abroad or in Australia; every government department that I had "professional" contact with was frankly appalling.

Until we overcome our species' greed and laziness we're never going to get an optimal solution, so it comes down to the "least worst" option! I'm not sure what that is!

From your other post - ballooning costs are standard. Quote low, get the job, then start upping the price and extending the duration of the task. Doesn't matter if it's private or public, the same rules apply! Personally I could never bring myself to do it - when I had an I.T. company the only time I changed the price was when the customer changed the task. Otherwise I worked on the basis that if we had stuffed up the price it was our fault for not costing it out properly - our mistake and I wore the consequences. It cost me some jobs (other people quoted low and then changed) but it let me sleep at night. On the other hand, it also got me repeat business and even new business from people who'd turned down our quote and gone with the supposedly "cheap" alternative! Retirement is good........

Perhaps the government should "own" the lines and transmission and Private should own the means of generation?

Just did a stupid calculation based on some numbers above - 780 MW x $75/MWh = $512 mil.

Of course its not that due to Variables, but that's a big revenue number! A lot of interesting things could be bought to grab a slice of that.


I had a thought and looked back on a Singapore investment that's put in wind generators in Tassie (these mills are so ridiculously frickin massive it is simply unbelievable! the BLADES are 100m long!) and the UK compressed air mob... that $512MM sure does buy a lot of windmills and storage... a LOT of it... now multiply that by 10 and one gets 5 Billion.... that buys an absolutely SHOCKING amount of solar, wind and CAES.

No wonder the Japanese wrote off that WA coal plant as Zero.


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Originally Posted by woodPixel

Perhaps the government should "own" the lines and transmission and Private should own the means of generation?

Just did a stupid calculation based on some numbers above - 780 MW x $75/MWh = $512 mil.

Of course its not that due to Variables, but that's a big revenue number! A lot of interesting things could be bought to grab a slice of that.


I had a thought and looked back on a Singapore investment that's put in wind generators in Tassie (these mills are so ridiculously frickin massive it is simply unbelievable! the BLADES are 100m long!) and the UK compressed air mob... that $512MM sure does buy a lot of windmills and storage... a LOT of it... now multiply that by 10 and one gets 5 Billion.... that buys an absolutely SHOCKING amount of solar, wind and CAES.

No wonder the Japanese wrote off that WA coal plant as Zero.


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WP

Extrapolating on that at an installation cost of $3mil for a 2MW wind turbine that figure of $512mil, which is a gross sum, what have we got? Take off your fixed running costs, the cost of fuel (likely around at least $10 - $20 per MW), the repayment of debt to the good natured bankers, down time for maintenance, breakages and outages and what do we have left? I don't know, but nowhere near $512 mil.

A wind turbine cost between $3mil and $4mil for a 2MW machine. 512mil would buy somewhere between 128 and 170 2MW wind turbine so they could produce between 256 and 340 MW nominally but in reality only between 35% of that when new and 25% as the machine ages, So between 64MW and 85MW when new.

How much do wind turbines cost? - Windustry

Lets do similar sums with solar.

1MW costs between $1.3mil and $2mil, but here we can only work on a quarter to a fifth of the rated power being generated each day. Actually that does not allow for a week, say, of cloudy weather when very little is generated. To produce the same amount of power as a traditional coal fired generator we have to have an installed capacity of at least five times the nominal amount. So to equate to 780MW you need 4000MW of installed capacity, but, and here is the crunch, you need the abilty to store 3,220MW either through batteries, hydro or whatever method you can come up with. For the moment, that is the absolute killer.

Incidentally, a generator cannot produce it's maximum rated load for revenue (we refer to it as what you send over the fence into the switch yard). Deduct 5% for your own consumption (all your auxiliaries) and de-rate the machine for hot weather. Maybe loose up to 20% of rated power through the middle of the day on hot days (this will vary from station to station). We have an awful lot of hot days in Oz.

Solar panels loose their efficiency as the temp rises beyond 25°C. They require sunlight more than temp.

Lastly, I should explain that I am not knocking renewables. I explain this as I had a disastrous conversation with my daughter that literally ended in tears (hers not mine :( ) . It appears I can be a little less than diplomatic at times.

We now have two solar systems installed as I am a big fan of using the sun to generate power. However, I feel obligated to explain the many pitfalls. I am not starry eyed in this regard. I would draw your attention to a manager interaction I had with one of our managers at work.

Manager: Paul, how do you like working at Millmerran?

Paul: If I have to work at a coal-fired, atmosphere polluting, greenhouse gas generator, Milmerran is the one I absolutely choose.

I don't think that was the answer he expected and to be fair I might have slightly and deliberately misinterpreted his question. As any pollster will tell you, the answers you get will depend on the questions you ask. Careful how you phrase the question.

Regards
Paul

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Originally Posted by Bushmiller

........ I explain this as I had a disastrous conversation with my daughter that literally ended in tears (hers not mine :( ) . It appears I can be a little less than diplomatic at times.

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My daughter is 15, and many of my ideas and opinions get short shrift too. Apparently years of work, experience of working and running companies in many countries etc. etc. mean nothing compared to what idealistic teachers or (worse) YouTubers with daft names have to say. I don't get tears, just huge amounts of attitude and "OK boomer" comments.... strange when in the next breath she's asking me to fix her computer!

Unfortunately the "spin" used by politician's, and promoter's of any "beneficial" technology is always over simplified. Trying to win an argument with a 15 yo about why solar & wind is not the magic solution is always going to be a hard sell.

I like to use a very simplified scenario - water from an intermittent source being delivered through an unregulated hose filling a 9lt bucket, and you using a 250ml cup to empty it. There is a sweet spot where you can easily keep up with the incoming flow. When the flow from the hose increases you can increase your tempo but can't sustain it for long so the bucket eventually overflows, and you have to "use" the water or store it somewhere. Oh, and btw the bucket has a hole in it - "system loss." No water coming in, then you have a small reserve capacity - 36 cupfuls, IF you don't spill any! IF you don't use it you will lose it anyway due to the leak. When that is depleted and no incoming water, well there is nothing left.

Now add in "upstream storage," an ability to top up from another water source as well, and the ability to regulate supply (a tap), repair the hole in the bucket (reduce system loss) and hence not waste the water means you have a whole different scenario - efficiency!

Solar & wind are largely an intermittent & unregulated supply, add in some storage capacity, battery or pumped storage, then you introduce some control. However the cost to dimension that storage to a practical capacity is staggering in cost and we have very limited potential sites for pumped storage. Then we introduce the environmental issues, more Franklin Dam protests???

Most residential, business and industrial consumers demand certainty, reliability, continuity, and security of supply, rain, hail or shine. The "alternates" at this stage are far short of that expectation. The Australian Energy Regulator (AER) has a complex task to manage the various stakeholder's interests.

Our only practical solution is a complex mix of technology to satisfy the base load; "temporary" increased demands or reduced supply; peak hour loads; and consumer education to "flatten out" demand across the day. Simple things like putting on the washing machine in off peak periods all contribute to "stability."

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Originally Posted by Mobyturns

......and consumer education to "flatten out" demand across the day. Simple things like putting on the washing machine in off peak periods all contribute to "stability."

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The German (?) inverter company SMA make a whole house management system that intelligently controls loads, electric car charging and battery storage included, to best use PV power output. This is the kind of technology I like. Factor in some AI to look at tomorrow's weather forecast and analyse past loads, then deplete battery storage early in the morning, either as export or heating/cooling/charging the car, and then recharge through the day. For new houses such a system could be centrally controlled at the fusebox with discrete circuits for each load, and for retrofits it could use a Philips Hue style WiFi/Zigbee/otherwirelesstechnology box at each load. I've only briefly looked at the SMA system, but it should almost be doable now using something like IFTTT....

One of the difficulties is that there is a requirement for transition. At present "cheap rate" electricity is overnight, which works great for a coal-fired environment. However PV, for example, does nothing at night so the conceptual "cheap rate" for PV is around lunchtime (ignoring loads, for the time being, and looking only at generation). Clearly at present overnight cheap rate is still relevant, because the loads are fewer, but with renewables perhaps we have to rethink this? Perhaps a system more like the "controlled load" (water heater) environment, centrally triggered through the network and allowing "cheap rate" power, or discharge of stored domestic power (domestic Tesla batteries, for example) whenever it is appropriate.

So, for example, my PV system runs my house and charges my (imaginary, sadly) Tesla batteries through the day. If the grid "runs short", it triggers my Tesla batteries to sell power to the grid. Equally if the grid price goes negative (as has been mentioned in this thread), my batteries can soak up that power. Whilst I clearly need to maintain a minimum charge level in my (also imaginary) electric car, it can receive a higher level of charge should the grid be in oversupply. And so on.

Sadly, like the concept of "petrol stations" having banks of easily swappable batteries to avoid the long delays charging electric cars, it will never work because no two organisations will ever agree, and neither will most individuals. Hang on, perhaps those "petrol stations" with racks of hot-swap electric car batteries can also be used in the "soak up excess power or cover brief shortfalls" concept. After all, if we are moving to electric cars that's a lot of hot swap batteries on racks....... "People working together for the common good", ROFL.....

My figures were only for a years income at one plant.

If one is looking at investment, to get a 10% return, perhaps multiply by ten. Thats 5 Billion dollars to get $500 mil income?

Thats a lloooooottttt of windmills :)

Interestingly I saw the link too on windmill costs. I spent the afternoon reading about the new GE mills (10MW) and the new 20's coming on board.

I found a calculator for these and Canberra could power every house with only 10 of these monsters.... lets multiply that by 3 for a 30% duty usage... double it for storage.... NOW, we just "bought" a white elephant rail system, it was $1.5 billion oops, thats TWO BILLION.... we could have THREE wind farms for the price of a single unused train.


The Coal industry is a stiffening corpse, it just needs to be buried.

Its why Sumitomo wrote off their plant in WA. $1.2 billion gone.... poof!

Chris Parks

Apologies. I am reluctant to say we have hijacked your thread, but I would admit to having digressed a little. I hope all this explains a little more as to why your feed in tarif has gone down but your electricity charge has remained the same.

:rolleyes:

Regards
Paul

Paul, no need for the apology as I find it all very interesting. I am interested also in the peer to peer possibilities of electricity supply which I touched on as I think that idea has legs so to speak. So carry on and let's see where it all goes.

I just love the idea, the tech, the possibilities of vast quantities of cheap electricity.

How liberating for industry!

On the OPs original thread :) :B there is this article on the ABC today that goes directly towards the question! ---> Electricity prices predicted to fall as renewable supply increases, gas price falls - ABC News

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Originally Posted by woodPixel

The Coal industry is a stiffening corpse, it just needs to be buried.

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That thought worries me greatly. It's a fine goal, and has much support from those in cities, but for those of us living in mining areas the realities are somewhat different. We are told that renewables will employ those ousted from the mining industry, but that's a pipe dream. In our area we have large PV and wind generation systems being, or having recently been, installed. What we have seen is short term employment of "muscle" to do the earthmoving, construction etc., but all the technical stuff is either FIFO workers or done off site. Once the system is up and running, employment drops to near zero - I am told the large wind farm near us employs a handful of permanent local staff (I've read just two people are required full time). Compare this to the thousands of people employed at the local mines. The vast majority of those mineworkers are "muscle", largely unsuited to anything other than driving big machines, and are used to being paid big$ for doing so......

When a mine closes, all its employees will be looking for work. There is nothing local for them to do, even if they took jobs as farm hands (jobs for which they are neither suited nor required) they would be looking at perhaps 70% pay cuts, and would be unable to pay their mortgages. So their only choice is to move or claim the dole (and sell their house!). All the direct mining support industries, engineering supply companies, and most of the irrigation/pumping companies would go bust, so their employees are also on the dole. Car dealerships and mechanics have no mines to buy fleets of vehicles, nor mine workers wanting new cars every couple of years. In short, the knock-on effect is that every other local business is then in trouble - no customers and nobody has any money to spend. People move away to try to find jobs, local businesses fold. Eventually even the supermarkets have too few customers to generate enough income for their corporate heads, so they close down.

For those of us living in a mining economy, those mines shutting is a terrifying concept!

Our local mine is closing for 8 weeks from early January and there is some discussion in town as to whether it will be re-opened. On a personal note I would welcome permanent closure due to local coal dust pollution issues that have been happening since they introduced long wall operations but I would not be out of work like the current employees would be and I can relate to being unemployed and given the boot.

Warb, I absolutely agree and empathise with that dilemma.

I've no answer, other than to do one of a few things.... get out now, reskill/train/whatever before the rush, or work out a way to migrate/mitigate it on a personal level.


There are many parallels such as Holden.... steel mills, the Tasmanian timber industry and coal. Mining towns boom and bust all the time.

I had shares in a gold mining company in NT that was going gangbusters, until it... didn't (poof!). The entire area went from casino town to carpark in a fortnight....


I think, however, that new opportunities will present themselves. I spend a bit of time each day just thinking about things and this is one which crosses my mind often. I honestly believe we are in for a truly golden age soon. The economies of the world are violently changing, communications/internet are part of daily lives, locality will soon not matter too much (autocars and autotrucks) and the use/need for "cities" seems to be vaporising by the day.

I find it of no use to agonise over the end of things. I stole part of the above statement from an intellectual property lawyer I once worked with... he described Telstra thusly "The rancid and putrefying remains of a terrible business, with desperate people trying to prise money out of an ever-stiffening corpse".... I loved it! Man he hated Telstra.

We can see the end. Don't need to be Nostradamus. Like those desperate saps who still worked at Holden at the end. What a "rancid and putrefying" affair that was.... corporate social security at its very worst. It would have been kinder to kill it quickly. It was unseemly seeing those workers holding out the rattling cup for alms at the end...

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Originally Posted by woodPixel

Warb, I absolutely agree and empathise with that dilemma.

I've no answer, other than to do one of a few things.... get out now, reskill/train/whatever before the rush, or work out a way to migrate/mitigate it on a personal level.

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I'm lucky, I'm largely retired except for a few small "freebie" jobs I do for some local businesses. I have my farm and another business that is to some degree immune from mine closures, certainly in the short term. The majority of the mine workers themselves will be totally stuffed, however. The mines don't develop their employees in a positive way, but rather with a "hit it with a bigger hammer" approach to most things. One of my friends has postulated that this is quite deliberate, as it makes those guys almost unemployable anywhere else - the mines have money to spend fixing broken machines, but farmers etc. don't, so nobody wants to employ people who smash machines on a regular basis! The other big problem is that, as I said, those guys are paid a ridiculous amount of money for what they do, and there is no way they'll get the same money anywhere else. This is why many of them are still there - they don't enjoy it, their bodies are breaking and the hours are awful (12hour shifts, compulsory night work etc. etc.) but they just can't get other jobs, never-mind a level of pay to cover the lifestyle (and loans) they are used to.

I do agree that the mines are doomed, but sadly I struggle to see a "golden age" in the making any time soon. We have all the ability to make it happen, but I'm not sure we will. At present I see vast numbers of people who make all the right noises but don't actually do anything. Many if not most of our friends in Sydney expound green principles, desires to stop global warming, address inequalities and all the other popular views, but do they actually do anything? Rooftop PV, water tanks, electric cars? No, no and no. Composting, growing their own vegetables, limiting showers to 3 minutes to save water? Well no, but this year they haven't flown abroad so that must count? Oh, wait, nobody has been allowed to fly abroad because of Covid......... But they did join a TwitFace group to show their support for something or other, so that PROVES they're serious, and they signed a petition to have a wind farm built somewhere well away from their suburb.......

We have the ability, but few people are willing to put in the effort, and even fewer seem willing to change their habits. Maybe that will change, but we're a selfish species in the main. Until the disaster hits us in the face, we'll make the right noises whilst carrying right on doing the wrong thing. It's the same concept as leaving before the Covid lockdown, everyone knows the lockdown is to reduce the spread so they should stay put, but "if we leave now we won't get stuck and we can still have our holiday".

I thought you folks might like to see some of the disparities that occur in our Eastern Seaboard grid. This was the first snapshot from 2006hrs last night. It has been a long time since the load was more in QLD than NSW and more usual is the price in NSW to be five times that of QLD! You will also see that the QLD price is actually more than the retail price (29c/KWhr), although it did not stay quite that high for very long.

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This snapshot from 0607hrs this morning is quite different.


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It was an interesting, but hectic night ironically brought on by some welcome rain. Very, very pleased I don't have to return until after Xmas.

Regards
Paul