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You doodlings look a bit rude there.Quote:
Originally Posted by woodPixel
Yeah, 'course, but you never know when someone might pick up a factoid and drop the tongue-in-cheek out of it, like when Bushmiller's quoted words were edited so that it appeared that he was a climate denier or at least a skeptic.Quote:
Originally Posted by woodPixel
Thought this might aleiviate some of the .... mood... developing here :)
https://youtu.be/X81AoBcVnaA
With a ventilator?Quote:
Originally Posted by woodPixel
Well I saw that you have had some uncorrected typos, AND an "i" without a dot! And lookout if I see you type l when you mean t.
Here in Katoomba we have HUGE amounts of Asian tourists spending their hard-earned, because of what the area has to offer, and it's close proximity to Sydney (2 hours by bus or train to spectacular world heritage scenery, and my shed :D). Of course they dropped to a trickle during the fires, but they came back a little bit during February.Quote:
Originally Posted by woodPixel
When the C19 story started to get momentum towards the end of Feb it was ONLY Asian tourists that had masks on, and virtually all of them did. (they may not have all been tourists...). In the same breath it has to be said that during the bushfires Asian tourists were wearing....bloody useless surgical masks against the smoke. In other words, I don't think for them it's so much about signalling, but more that they think those masks are actually effective, with their huge vents on each side of the face. Certainly they do have a culture of mask wearing - even in normal times I used to see a good amount of them masked up.
I took my Tesla to the fast recharge station today and was turned away. That means all night plugged into a GPO! Now I know what people mean by "doing it tough" :(
Nah. I'm waiting for the Matthias Wandel Woodgears version to come out. I just sent him an email requesting it.Quote:
Originally Posted by woodPixel
Yes, but if I was one of those who was going to die in Dec of this year anyway I sure would appreciate those extra eight months and not die in April struggling for breath hooked up to a ventilator. Yes, I know either way that I would be a single stat for 2020, but those extra eight months would be nice!Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
However, ignoring those who are whinging about getting a few extra months of life, we can expect an increased death toll from from other heath conditions during the peak period of the CV-19 epidemic because of the stress on the health care system. So that 8% of 60-69yr old blokes is likely to be higher this year from non-CV-19 causes if we don't put a lid on the rate of CV-19 transmission. Others have probably already made that point.
As for the 70-79yr olds, I don't want to know about that!
Jeez, Neil, be careful what you wish for! :UQuote:
Originally Posted by NeilS
Well good luck in placing your faith in an accountant. I've worked with too many of them to fall into that trap.Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilS
And I'm going to fall into the trap of my many climate change industry fans here when I ask have you no regard for the financial wellbeing and future of your grandchildren and their grandchildren who may take decades to pay off the lavish cash splash currently being handed out by our socialist government that you approve of to preserve your selfish existence? You've already lived your three score years and ten, isn't it their turn?
Just kidding of course...
Ok Sorry, have we stopped doing that at last? :oo:'Quote:
Originally Posted by woodPixel
'
I sure hope we have.:wink:
I must have missed the email.:?
Today's spreadsheet attached. Coupla new columns with sort buttons added. (Cases and deaths 3 day gain)
Be careful of the red "SCREEN" button. :dev: It is customised for my screen to move it to the right, so if it is on a small screen it may go across the ditch.... (you can always just shut it down without saving it and reopen). The "Colours" button is just to colour the cells via a macro.
Italy and Spain are getting HAMMERED, even though the cases haven't increased by all that much. The death rate has climbed disproportionately to the cases. Perhaps that means that there is a lag between getting on top of the new infections and existing cases still dying.
France, UK, Turkey, Belgium not a whole lot better, but with less overall deaths.
Interestingly, only Turkey is even close to doing 2x cases per 3 days (82.8%), and Australia continues to do what I can only describe as "exceptionally well", with one day's worth of new cases for the 3 day period, and only 2 more deaths.
EDIT: replaced the spreadsheet with the next gen. I have decided to take the data at midnight GMT, which is 10am here until next Sunday when it will become 9am.
REMEMBER: DO NOT PRESS THE RED BUTTON! :D :blowup::evillaugh:
A response from Planet Earth: maybe you should have worked with Economists instead. Maybe you didn't know they are as similar to accountants as doctors are to physicists?Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
???Quote:
Originally Posted by FenceFurniture
Maybe and maybe not. When 93 YEAR MIL was struck down with congestive heart failure in May of 2018 and didn't pass away until March of 2019 having gone in and out of ICU 7 times until she put her foot down and said "I'm not going back there", I was fairly certain the wanted to depart long before then.Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilS
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilS
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
Chris Richardson would decline to do your Tax Return for you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
Google might have to be your friend if you are still confused.
Call 'em whatever you like, they're all accountants...
One of the things that is prevalent through all of this is the number of statistics and numbers that are being thrown around both in relation to the virus itself, and the resulting economic response from various governments. One of the hardest things I find is to try and put everything into perspective with so many number and so many large numbers, but I have a way that I have personally found useful over the years that I thought I would share in order that it might help some get their own perspective on what is happening.
The basic premise is to convert numbers into seconds and then view them as time, I find it very useful. So here are a few conversions for you, starting with the smallest numbers and escalating from there, some of the numbers will be approximate and will change as this develops.
number of deaths 50,000 = 15 hrs 53 minutes
number of confirmed cases 1 million = 11.5 days
1 billion because its a round number = 31.7 years
world population 7.5 billion = 238 years
Australian stimulus package 320 billion = 10,147 years
US stimulus in US dollars 2 trillion = 63,419 years.
Make of those numbers what you will.
Cheers Andrew
Perth COVID19 hot spots
https://ww2.health.wa.gov.au/~/media...region-map.jpg
6 confirmed cases in my suburb (2 look like they're are at Curtin uni housing)
10 in a cluster around my sons place - don't tell DIL
A bit of clustering along the edges of the Swan River (wealthier suburbs) and training north up along the coast (Pommyville? :) )
Perhaps a few less in the newer southern suburbs.
That's....very revealing. :;Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
Agreed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
For Sale:
Set of four brass "master" padlocks. One careful lady owner (unwanted gift.)
Attachment 470783
:wink:
Regards
Paul
Very few (none) comments about my post earlier today about the 2.5% wage increase for Queensland public service employees (and the $1,250 cash bonus). Can I assume that a lot of you work for the Qld government? (and would be welcoming this well deserved salary increase). I might add you also have job security during this difficult time and are probably "working from home" (wink wink) :)
From the Guardian blog, news out of Uganda:
President Yoweri Museveni imposed a 14-day virtual lockdown on Monday to try to clamp down on the spread of Covid-19, which infected 44 people in the East African country so far.
Private cars have been banned from roads during the period, with the government assisting expectant mothers and those in medical emergencies to secure transport to hospitals.
However, there are no functioning public ambulances, meaning that citizens are relying on private means to get to hospital.
WP, those graphs are several levels above my paygrade, so would you mind interpreting them? In particular how the whacking conclusion is drawn?Quote:
Originally Posted by woodPixel
These could all be from a known case that unknowingly before they developed symptoms went to the large local Woolies just before being diagnosed.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
AndrewQuote:
Originally Posted by AJ.
I'm not sure whether to thank you or not.
using your comparisons
number of confirmed cases 1 million = 11.5 days
1 billion because its a round number =31.7 yearswith exponential growth 1 billion cases will be reached inside something like 40 days -- in this context sometime in early May 2020.
Remember that the basic characteristic of a pandemic is that number of cases grows exponentially.
Warning about some hands sanitisers and the importance of using added water ie raw method is not an affective hand sanitiser.
Many hand sanitisers are ineffective against coronavirus, experts warn - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
They only say that water is necessary to make it "more effective" but don't explain how.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
BrettQuote:
Originally Posted by FenceFurniture
I think that reference to water related to 100% alcohol, which apparantly is not effective at that srength.
Regards
Paul
Yes, but why?
It has long been accepted that 70% alcohol is the most effective strength so water is required to bring stronger alcohol down to that levelQuote:
Originally Posted by Bushmiller
BecauseQuote:
Originally Posted by FenceFurniture
Let me phrase the question slightly differently then.
Why is 95-100% alcohol less effective than 70% alcohol. It seems counter-intuitive.
I believe it is to slow the rate of evaporation. I expect its also to aide the osmotic pressure on the cell wall?
Edit (about 10 minutes after first responding)
Here we are! DuckDuckGo to the resuce!
Why Is 70% Isopropyl Alcohol (IPA) a Better Disinfectant than 99% Isopropanol, and What Is IPA Used For?
Quote:
Isopropyl alcohol, particularly in solutions between 60% and 90% alcohol with 10 – 40% purified water, is rapidly antimicrobial against bacteria, fungi, and viruses. Once alcohol concentrations drop below 50%, usefulness for disinfection drops sharply. Notably, higher concentrations of alcohol don’t generate more desirable bactericidal, virucidal, or fungicidal properties.
The presence of water is a crucial factor in destroying or inhibiting the growth of pathogenic microorganisms with isopropyl alcohol. Water acts as a catalyst and plays a key role in denaturing the proteins of vegetative cell membranes. 70% IPA solutions penetrate the cell wall more completely which permeates the entire cell, coagulates all proteins, and therefore the microorganism dies. Extra water content slows evaporation, therefore increasing surface contact time and enhancing effectiveness. Isopropyl alcohol concentrations over 91% coagulate proteins instantly. Consequently, a protective layer is created which protects other proteins from further coagulation.
Solutions > 91% IPA do kill bacteria, but sometimes require longer contact times for disinfection, and enable spores to lie in a dormant state without being killed. In this analysis, a 50% isopropyl alcohol solution kills Staphylococcus Aureus in less than 10 seconds (pg. 238), yet a 90% solution with a contact time of over two hours is ineffective. Some disinfectants will kill spores, which are classified as chemical sterilants. So why do higher alcohol solutions yield fewer results for bactericidal and antimicrobial outcomes?
I was taught about 70% being the best back in the 1950s but I can't recall if we were told the reason if indeed they knew then.Quote:
Originally Posted by FenceFurniture
After all, my granddaughter used to ask me what it was like back in the dinosaur age. :D
Bewdy, thanks Ev.
Welcome Fencing dude!
It was a good question. I always assumed I knew the answer, but BobL has put me on my ass so often that I now question everything! :)
Speaking of questioning and knowing.... can anyone spot the one outlier in this screen grab from Worldometers just now?
Hint: ITS CHINA
Attachment 470810
Ev, can I draw your attention to post #1145?
Pffft! Just all part of their quest for world dominance, but they having been leading the world in the bullsh stakes for a couple of decades.Quote:
Originally Posted by woodPixel
I used this formula from the WHO webpage (I think Bob originally posted that) to make up my hand sanitiser mix. It adds just under 20% by volume of water.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
I think (but do not know) that the issue with too higher a proportion of alcohol mixtures is that it evaporates off the hands too quickly to provide the required 10-15 seconds exposure time to denature the virus proteins.
Apart from a bit of hand waving I would be very wary of using this data to compare countries at this stageQuote:
Originally Posted by woodPixel
For a start not all countries are on the same part of the pandemic curve.
Then, for large countries like China,, AUS and USA especially in (semi) lock down situations the variability in the country itself can be very large.
Perhaps a more reliable way come to grips with what is going on is by region or state. In this case the 60 odd million inhabitants in Hubei have had about 3000 deaths so their death rate is more like 500 - this has nothing to do with the Chinese govt but more to do with whoever is drawing up those tables.
Even in a relatively small, highly infected country like Italy (current death rate of 218 per million) the death rates across regions are quite large
eg Lombardy has a death rate of about 700/million whereas in the very adjacent region of Veneto their date rate is about 1/7th of this.
800 km away in the southern Apuglia regional of Italy the death rate is about 1/23rd that of Lombardy
Remember it's the regional or even local town/suburb death rates that matters more to an individuals risk. What goes on elsewhere in locked down situations has a much reduced impact on their risks.
We can't really do AUS state by state comparisons yet because the death rates are too low - which I guess itself says something. Maybe something to do with seniors being more careful and the 20-40 age group being the more careless ones?