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Thank you Neil, you have done two valuable things: you saved each of us who have not watched it 12 minutes, and some download bandwidth, but more importantly (much more) you have denied the vid guy some oxygen because hits might earn him money.Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilS
While absolutely respecting Neil's right to his view I hope his opinionated prose doesn't put anyone off just viewing this. After following this thread for 878 posts what's another 12 minutes? There is no self promotion, at the end he just suggests you visit his website which is free and ad free. I didn't visit it. He doesn't proclaim any medical expertise (in fact I didn't even realise he was a doctor till Neil mentioned it). It's about the numbers (and no he doesn't claim to be a statistician either :).Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilS
CAVEAT: Any figures worked around the number of cases, such as the death rate, have several reasons why they are rubbery, as we have previously discussed (so I won't repeat what they are).
I have done a little Excel work with some of the figures from the Johns Hopkins site, and some interesting things (for me anyway) have come out of it. Firstly here is a screenshot of today's figures, sorted 3 different ways. On the left is # cases descending, middle is # deaths (not death rate) descending, and right is population infection rate (cases/pop%).
Notes:
- white text on red is the worst example, white on magenta is next worst, followed by paler pink. Yellow represents the better examples.
- I was going to talk about 1000+ cases as the cut-off, but as you will see, <2000 cases yields skewed results, so the cut-off in future will be 2000 cases.
- Johns Hopkins talks about recoveries, but eventually they will equal cases minus deaths, and they have a long way to go. Only China appears to be near the end of the cycle (which is pretty encouraging in itself, if it can be trusted....)
- If there is interest I will be happy to post a summary every 2 or 3 days (every 3 probably makes the best sense)
- I may well add a "Continent" field, for another sort. (and I would expect Antarctica to be the world leader of success! :U)
Attachment 470664
Now Bob, as our resident mathematician/statistics guy might have some valuable input here, so please feel free to say so Bob. These are just my observations of these figures. There are a few different stats that could be added to give this more meaning (such as poverty rates, international travel rates, pop density, and so on) but that's just getting on for a bit too much research....:no:
- The number of deaths is pretty much in the same order as the death rates, particularly at the bad end and especially if you take what I would think are dodgy China stats.
- The total population of the countries with 2000+ cases is approx equal to the 1000 to 2000 bracket population (this is only for the moment though)
- WRT only 2000+ cases, the totals for that category for cases, deaths, death rate are more or less the same as for the total world population (blue figures). The population infection rate is very different though.
- European countries are streaking away with Pop Infection Rate (10 of the worst 11 spots)
- By next Wednesday I expect virtually all of the 1000-2000 case countries to be included in 2000+.
- Look at Japan's astonishing figures, considering their population and proximity to China!
- Taiwan, with its 23.82 mill pop, 283 cases and 2 deaths is never going to get on that list! Death rate is 0.71%, PIR is 0.0012% which will in time become the lowest rate of all, I suspect
- Forget India's numbers at the moment, they will explode.
- I also expect figures from Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, Philippines, Pakistan to deteriorate badly and rapidly. Maybe even Russia.... if they tell the truth.
- WRT only 2000+ cases, Australia is almost at the bottom of deaths and death rate, and not far off that for Pop Inf Rate. This might change, but that gives me quite some hope that we are doing pretty well.
*I have just noticed that some of the colour coding is wrong so I will fix it, and upload again.
Well I respect Neil's view too, but I also trust it. He has access to an expert who is DNA linked to him (which means no bullsh). So no, I'm not going to give oxygen or a click to some guy that you seem to think might be a bit conspiratorial. It doesn't matter if you watch it for a second or 12 minutes, it still counts as a click, and therefore oxygen and possibly $$.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
What does that actually mean?Quote:
Originally Posted by FenceFurniture
but it is not about who owns a company it is about how much they contribute to our economy. Virgin employs about 10,000 Aussies directly and then there are all the other businesses that provide services to them so the number for that business alone staying viable in Australia could easily be in the order of 50,000 jobsQuote:
Originally Posted by GraemeCook
Hahaha! I was typing that exact same question when I spotted your post!Quote:
Originally Posted by doug3030
Thankfully there are a few here who have a grasp of economics! Thank you!Quote:
Originally Posted by Beardy
The question:
https://www.woodworkforums.com/image...quote_icon.png Originally Posted by FenceFurniture https://www.woodworkforums.com/image...post-right.png
He has access to an expert who is DNA linked to him (which means no bullsh).
The question was what does "He has access to an expert who is DNA linked to him" exactly mean?
I shan't quote your whole post. But that was what I was pretty much banging on about.Quote:
The further away you can stay the better
I know I have quoted more than enough stats in my posts but stats for many countries still have to be treated with skepticism.
Taiwan is politically motivated always to have rates less than China.
Japan wanted to hold onto the Olympics so probably fudged its numbers, but now it cannot lose face. Anyway their rates are now increasing.
No country wants to be over reporting deaths for a wide range of reasons. Some countries like Iran, China and even the two above (or many others for that matter) may only be reporting pneumonic COVID19 deaths. If the deceased dies of kidney or heart failure brought by COVID19 are they being reported as a COVD19 death? Possibly not.
There are people dying in 3rd world countries in gutters and back alleys and these will not be counted.
The US testing data is highly unreliable.
Anyway, I like the latest government moves, just wished they'd done it sooner. The one other I wish they would have stomped on is, family groups going to shopping centres or supermarkets. I can understand an adult supervising kids might need to go but not two+ adults and a bunch of kids. Surely the spare adults can stay behind and supervise the kids.
GraemeQuote:
Originally Posted by GraemeCook
As some others have mentioned Virgin does employ many (don't know exactly how many) Aussies and that is good. I guess it is a shame that it is not Australian owned, but that is true of so many Aussie icons (Arnott's as an example) and more a subject for another thread as we have plenty of digressions as it is. I might lean towards assisting people more than corporations as I would expect that to reach the people most needy. Possibly the galling aspect of foreign ownership is that they have not paid their share of tax, but still want a handout (see I got drawn into a digression. Disregard that comment)
As an aside I have just overheard on the TV in the other room that further restrictions on numbers of people outside are being imposed (think I heard two) and some bans on evicting tenants.
Regards
Paul
And I also respect your rights to your opinions on this forum, Tccp.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
Apologies if you found my prose (too) opinionated. I was just responding to your invitation to make my own judgement on the video. I acknowledge you didn't invite us to share that judgement here, but having invested the time to look at the video I felt I owed forum members (including yourself) my response.
As for the claim by Coleman that his website is 'add free', what would be more correct is that there are no paid adds on his website. However, the first button on his homepage [Bookshop] links to his very extensive self-publications list and is headed:
New Books by Vernon Coleman - all available as eBooks and paperbacks on AmazonThat's an add by any other name. In my opinion, Coleman's own agenda is not very well hidden and not worth any more of my time.
Well Neil has only been posting in this thread for a short while, and doesn't have that many posts, so it shouldn't be to hard rediscover it, if you haven't remembered what he has said.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
Edit: word omission typo.
W-T-F! "so it shouldn't be to rediscover it, if you haven't remembered what he has said."
I'm not even going to go there...
Eeee, I think you might find it's a way of getting around purchasing limits of 2 loaves, 1 bumroll etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
Oopsie! Missed a word. Fixed now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
Proofreading really is a dying art.Quote:
Originally Posted by FenceFurniture
Does anyone actually know anyone with the Corona Virus?
Mmmm.... five minutes - no answers
Is there a condensed version of this thread somewhere? Just the major important points would be fine.
Anyone?Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
My sister's, niece's, father-in-law was the first COVID19 death in WA.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
But I don't know him personally.
And how old was he Bob?Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
Approximately will do...Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
My wife’s cousin has it but she now lives in England.
My mate was admitted two days ago for further testing, he got the results back this morning with a negative outcome so is lucky to only have pneumonia
My question was confronting and got the reply I was expecting. But think about this, on a normal day in Australia approximately 434 people die of non-Covid19 related illnesses. That's every single day. Or if you want to use Italy as an example its 1753.
This is not the Spanish Flu. Nothing like it. If you don't believe me do a little research.
Don't be sucked into the hysteria. This is a herd stampede at its worst and it's taking us all with it... if we let it!
My sister is convinced she has had it. She had flu-like symptoms and went to the doctor. She did not even meet the conditions to qualify for a test and was not even told to self-isolate. She self-isolated anyway and is finished her 14 days tomorrow. After that she believes that she has had Covid-19 and is now immune. Every family has one.
Yep, see below.Quote:
Is there a condensed version of this thread somewhere? Just the major important points would be fine.
Looking at where you're from, if you have any pre-existing medical issues, particularly lung related, keep a low profile for at least the next six months. When things start to warm up again keep a low profile for the following six months, repeat ad nauseam.
Just don't forget that this thing is a virus.........they don't go away............sadly we will have this thing forever now. I know people are hoping and praying that it mutates into something less harmful......just saying...... I hope and pray I win the lottery every week....
77?Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
he had a pre existing condition
It might be true that 1743 people die each day in Italy, but that is why hospitals and the medical system is already catering for. Throw 600-900 extra all needing intensive care and you need all that extra hospital capacity to treat them. The fact that many people hit the end of their natural lives each day doesn't mean that substantially more dying well before their time, and adding to that number, is not serious.
Also the 900-odd day figures we've seen in Italy and low numbers here are *with* the strict measures in place. It's not representative of what Covid-19 would be doing if everyone just let it rip.
Pointing to relatively low numbers is like standing under an umbrella while it's raining and saying, "See, it's not so bad. I don't know why everyone's saying umbrellas are so important. I'm only getting a few drops. Let's not get hysterical about holding onto this umbrella."
While I agree its not the SF, It's very difficult to make a comparison based on reported numbers alone.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
In 1919 viruses were not know about and testing was based on symptoms which was often too late to limit infections. Communication was much slower, There were was nowhere near the level of health care, no antibiotics to deal with secondary bacterial infections that caused pneumonia (not unlike COVID19), ICU was a pale shadow of we have today, no respirators, limited understanding of epidemics so limited, late or no quarantining etc. Happening just at the end of WWI almost the entire worlds population were nutritionally challenged (there were also major famines in China and Russia at the same time) and generally in a poor health condition.
On the counter side, people today live longer with more, and more severe, health conditions and more people rapidly move around.
The Spanish flu was also not just one flu. The first wave was mild and had a low death rate (also not unlike COVID19), it was the second wave that knocked us for 6 and the same could happen with COVID19.
But the real reason that even a half decent comparison cannot be made is there were few systematic statistics kept about the Spanish flu especially in 3rd world countries and anyone that claims they know the numbers are fooling themselves. A lot of the deaths were estimates based on a few samples but the death rates varied widely from place to place, even within the same region. It is thought that as many people died of the flow on effects of the SF such as decimated medical workforce, reduced food production etc as died of the SF. Some of the SF casualty estimates are based on total deaths in the period as it was too difficult to disentangle the causes of death. Over time a number of research papers about spanish flu numbers published in prestigious scientific journals were found repeatedly to be wrong, and numbers have been revised back and forth for year.
I don't think this is the time to be making these comparisons. We have an immediate threat to public health amongst us now and anyone over 60 with one on more health conditions cannot afford to catch it at the same time as a bunch of other people. Also we need to be very careful about watching out for round 2.
Not only do they not go away they can easily mutate and become deadlier. This is what happened during the Spanish Flu. The first wave was mild and had low death rates (not unlike COVD19) compared to the following wave which the medical fraternity was just going to be a repeat of the first wave. What we have to be is better prepared for the possible Tsunami that follows. If the Govts had any sense they should start planning and investing NOW.Quote:
Originally Posted by Feckit
Maybe take out shares in PPE, sanitiser chemicals, Respirators, Rapid Response Biotech to make test kits, Coffins etc?
Not quite sure, but he is possibly referring to either my siblings or my children with expertise in virology and medicine or perhaps he is referring to my friend who is an epidemiologist, but he is not DNA related.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
Anyway, the expertise is theirs, not mine. But, I do listen to their advice and I couldn't repeat here what they say about those who are propagating the view that the current measures are an overreaction.
Neil, yes, you mentioned your son a few days ago, and IIRC you said he was an Immunologist or very similar.
Maybe there's hysteria on Facebook and the like but I wouldn't know. Maybe there's a bit of hysteria in Sydney - I don't know, but I don't think so. Out on the street (here anyway) people are just going about their business. I think I may even be seeing a little more friendliness around - more people saying hello to strangers as we walk past each other, but I wouldn't necessarily expect that in Sydney.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
Herd stampede? Well not yet, but recent weeks have certainly given us a glimpse of how quickly society would be able to break down in a full blown catastrophe, and that really is scary. Especially fights over bumroll (I'll bet there was more than just that one at Chullora). At this stage I'm not sure if some social media like FB and Twitter are doing more harm than good, because they are certainly magnificent in spreading junk stories to whip people into frenzies.
But what will happen to FB when the advertising dries up? It must have already gone down significantly. Will this whole procedure be a cleansing of our society as we knew it, or will it go the other way? Certainly it will never be the same again, one way or another.
Went for a walk to Woolworths this arvo and panic buying seems to have settled down - plenty of raw chicken (all cuts), plenty of bread, red meat, and so on. Toilet roll still comes and goes apparently. I was even able to get my favourite lamb steak for once. This is probably partly due to the restrictions they have put on purchase numbers, and partly due to freezer space having run out.
I do think it's important to try and have some fun with people when out and about in these trying times. When I went into Woolies they had some new green discs on the floor, about 400mm dia, with "Stand Here" on them.
So I did.
After a little while I looked across to the store greeter about 10m away, gestured to the floor, and asked "How long for?".
He called back "As long as you like, but we close at 8!"
Good answer! We both had a small giggle.
Having said all that, we must take this very, very seriously indeed - it's as infectious as hell. Trust the medical professionals. We have to hope there is no mutated second wave.
laugh out loudQuote:
Originally Posted by FenceFurniture
which just happens to be the name of a radio show her in Canada
#4 has died of the bug at my nans care centre in Ryde/Mcquarie yesterday.
Makes all these theoretical discussions a bit more real....
Apologies for the delay. Its 3am and no work tomorrow, so I played Black Mesa on Steam for hours and hours!Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
Yes. I live in a block of 180 units, divided into 3 buildings. The young bloke next door to me has it. His two co-renters abandoned him 2 weeks ago. He's been spending his time gaming, watching movies and getting outrageously drunk, quite often.
There is talk on the buildings Facebook group that a couple on the upper floor are infected, but everyone is being very deliberately polite in not fingering them. Stigma and all that.
There is also talk of two cases in the upper building, but I don't know the facts.
So, yes, this beastie is really getting around.
I dont know anyone personally.
Just to emphasise the potential consequences of the first wave of the H1N1 (usually, and incorrectly, called Spanish Flu) outbreak in 1918, subsequent waves of infection were much worse, but fortunately by then quarantine measures had been much improved.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
On 7 November 1918, the S.S. Talune docked in Apia. (Note that 7 November 1918 was about four days before the official end of WWI -- 11 November 1918, and approximately 12 - 18 months before the H1N1 epidemic's peak.) Although the ship had been quarantined in Fiji, passengers exhibiting symptoms of influenza were permitted to disembark in Apia. The result:
"The total number of deaths attributable to influenza was later estimated to have reached 8500, or 22% of [Samoa's] population."
Source: Influenza in Samoa - The 1918 influenza pandemic | NZHistory, New Zealand history online
Quote:
Originally Posted by GraemeCook
but that is assuming that no other operator (including Qantas) is willing to step in and make up the demand.Quote:
Originally Posted by Beardy
Assuming that travel patterns return to pre-Covid-19 levels within 12 months -- not that big of an assumption -- most of Virgin's staff would easily find jobs with Qantas and Jetstar.
Think of how Qantas "bounced back" following Ansett's demise in the wake of 9/11.