breaking covid rules

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Originally Posted by BobL

Something still not being given anywhere near enough attention to in this whole schemozzle is similar to what I have been rabbiting on in the dust forum about for years and that is the issue of "forced fresh air ventilation".

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Can I say here that Australia generally has absolutely no understanding of anything to do with air movement. I've seen roof-top evaporative coolers ("swampies") being used with all doors and windows shut. I've seen very expensive apartments in Sydney with ducted air con with NO RETURN PATH so internal doors slam shut and are hard to re-open, and the air conditioner does nothing. I even know of one very expensive apartment where the indoor unit is in a small cupboard in the middle of the apartment, has no return ducts, and the door surrounds and vents in to that cupboard have been sealed to "reduce the noise". If you open the cupboard door every other door in the apartment slams shut!!!

My own house had ducted air con installed by "professionals" when it was built, and was much the same as above. No return ducts didn't matter because we never shut any internal doors, but I had to cut out the bottom section of the door to the internal unit and replace them with brass mesh......

Yes I have a similar experience.
I spent about 30 years of my working life at Unis and research Institutes involved with designing, building and using dust free clean labs.
In the very first one I was involved with the sparky wired the fan backwards - it still ran but with about 80% less air flow than spec.

The biggest lab was 400m^2 and involved some space that was nominally 100x cleaner than Hospital Operating theatres. The Aussie engineers adding to this project were solid blokes but out of their depths. In teh end we brought an international consultant out from the to school them up and he did a fantastic job so we got pretty close to what we were asking for. The Aussie engineers did not like being told but when that project won an Australian Engineering award for innovation all was forgiven.

The other thing that sits alongside return air paths are the sizes of "fresh air intake paths". Most systems have fresh air intake paths that are much too small - trying to save money on AC costs I guess. this will have to change.

And now things are getting even more interesting. The Federal Government, and today more importantly (for me) the NSW government, have specifically linked relaxation of lockdowns and increased freedom to vaccination rates, irrespective of other factors. Wow. Guess what? We are already getting asked by people to provide their 2nd doses early - as early as 3 or 4 weeks from the first dose, which these people believe is OK because the government have rushed the second doses through in area's of concern.

What does this actually mean? Well, the data shows that the greatest protection is gained from 2 doses spaced 12 weeks apart, which was the original recommendation. Further studies have shown that the decrease in protection by reducing the spacing to 9 weeks is relatively minimal, and the UK has already done this. The logic is that the trade-off between a slightly reduced level of protection and a reduction in the spread of delta, during an outbreak, is worthwhile. Where it gets interesting is that whilst an August 2021 (as yet unreviewed) study suggests that there is no massive drop in efficacy in having the second dose at the 9 week mark, earlier (reviewed) studies have shown that efficacy does drop quite a large amount if you go _much_ earlier than that 9 week point. In fact one published study indicated that 2 doses 3 weeks apart gave only 55% protection. Better than nothing, especially for vulnerable people in a major outbreak, but hardly a recipe for a safe future for all.

So for AZ, rushing 2nd doses just to get the numbers up could be a recipe for trouble down the line!!

Having said that, what I'm reading about the mu variant, which will doubtless be followed by even bigger and better strains, suggests that it might all be rather pointless anyway. Interesting times!

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Originally Posted by Warb

Having said that, what I'm reading about the mu variant, which will doubtless be followed by even bigger and better strains, suggests that it might all be rather pointless anyway. Interesting times!

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Warb

The Delta variant is (was) the most virulent of the strains until now. Could you expand on this "mu" variant, of which I am unaware?

Regards
Paul

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Originally Posted by Bushmiller

Warb

The Delta variant is (was) the most virulent of the strains until now. Could you expand on this "mu" variant, of which I am unaware?

Regards
Paul

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The virus is undergoing mutations all the time. The mutations are in the form of changes to the genetic code of the virus, and each variant carries one or more of these genetic changes. As variants are discovered, their genetic code is investigated and variants that have combinations of the mutations that have already been seen to cause problems are followed. When these variants show combinations that are likely to cause problems, and they start to pop up in numbers, the WHO designates them as a "variant of interest" - though I suspect "concern" might be more appropriate!

Mu first appeared, I believe, in South America. It has the genetic mutations for fast transmission, and potentially to allow it to evade the immune responses from the current vaccines (or natural immunity). At one point it comprised quite a large proportion of the cases of covid in Colombia and possibly other South American countries, and has been detected in much of the US. At this point it is still rated as less of a threat than delta, and is in fact "losing market share" to delta. The point of interest for me is that it carries the mutations for fast spread and (I can't think of a good way to express this) "resistance to immunity", which means that whilst delta is top dog at the moment, once vaccination removes some of delta's advantage there is already at least one more variant on the bench awaiting its time....

Ironic isn't it.

We stop a virus that out-competes Mu with a vaccine, therefore giving Mu room to propagate.

We can't win :(

What happened to the lambda variant currently prevalent in (I believe) Peru? We seem to have skipped to the mu variant. At this rate, the Greek alphabet will soon run out of letters.
Pete

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Originally Posted by woodhutt

What happened to the lambda variant currently prevalent in (I believe) Peru? We seem to have skipped to the mu variant. At this rate, the Greek alphabet will soon run out of letters.
Pete

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This is an evolutionary process. Different variants are springing up all the time, in everyone who has covid. Most of those variants will never even be discovered, as they will not make it beyond the body in which they developed. To get a name, the variant has to be detected, then identified as a new strain, then shown (genetically) to have traits that make it in some way interesting, and then to appear in sufficient numbers and sites/countries to warrant naming.

Lambda is C.37
Mu is B.1.621
Delta is B.1.617.2

By the format of those numbers it can be seen that there are a great many variants!!

C.1.2 is another variant currently being discussed because it also has many of the "better" (for the virus, not us!) mutations, and apparently it has numerically more mutations than most other variants. However as of a couple of days ago I don't think it had a name, and was not a WHO "variant of interest".

The point of interest, to me at least, is that I'm still not sure that we, either as individuals or as a species, have truly grasped the enormity of the situation. We've developed vaccines that provide some protection against some strains of the virus, and are then glibly talking about "opening up" and returning to our pre-covid existence. Is that ever going to be the case? As soon as we start to ramp up international travel, those variants that have mutated to evade our immunity (vaccine or natural) will start to spread again....

On another note, I read with great "amusement" that you can buy a black-market covid vaccination certificate online already. It's scary to think that there are people with so little respect for other people's health that they would sell, or buy, a fake certificate that has been specifically designed to keep society safe from a killer disease. In my darker moments I find myself wondering if we even deserve to survive......

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Originally Posted by woodhutt

At this rate, the Greek alphabet will soon run out of letters.

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I forgot to say, when we get to the end of the Greek alphabet we can do what the marketeers do, and start adding extra bits to make it sound better.

How about "Delta Ultimate Platinum Pro"!!

We're going through frats next.

Sigma Chi

Delta Delta Delta

Tau Kappa Epsilon

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Originally Posted by Warb

On another note, I read with great "amusement" that you can buy a black-market covid vaccination certificate online already. It's scary to think that there are people with so little respect for other people's health that they would sell, or buy, a fake certificate that has been specifically designed to keep society safe from a killer disease. In my darker moments I find myself wondering if we even deserve to survive......

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This was always going to be on the cards, I believe. The moment they began to consider the idea of covid 'passports' for international travel, the forgers must have begun sharpening their pencils. The blessing is that, it doesn't matter what sort of passport another country has issued, we not obliged to let them in.
Pete

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Originally Posted by Warb

I forgot to say, when we get to the end of the Greek alphabet we can do what the marketeers do, and start adding extra bits to make it sound better.

How about "Delta Ultimate Platinum Pro"!!

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Problem is Warb, some idiots would find that attractive and want it!
Pete

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Originally Posted by woodhutt

Problem is Warb, some idiots would find that attractive and want it!
Pete

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Evolution in action.......

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Originally Posted by woodhutt

This was always going to be on the cards, I believe. The moment they began to consider the idea of covid 'passports' for international travel, the forgers must have begun sharpening their pencils. The blessing is that, it doesn't matter what sort of passport another country has issued, we not obliged to let them in.
Pete

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So the first rule is to discard all the nonsense about privacy. After that it becomes much easier - a central database records the vaccination status of an individual, together with a mug shot. That individual has a QR code, or a badge, or simply a number. The "inspector" has a scanner, into which the QR code (or whatever) is entered, the central database is queried and the mugshot is displayed together with vaccination status. No forgery is possible, short of hacking the central database or plastic surgery to change the appearance to match someone else. I believe the health of the population in general, whether an entire country or the other customers in a restaurant, outweighs any claims to "privacy" either relating to vaccination status or wearing a mask on religious grounds.

As you say, any paper or "image" based system will be forged, as will anything that is stored on a device. However there is no requirement for any of that, because I doubt many airport security installations, restaurants or any other venues don't have internet connections available. Live queries with a mug shot avoids all those issues!

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Originally Posted by D.W.

We're going through frats next.

Sigma Chi

Delta Delta Delta

Tau Kappa Epsilon

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We haven't got them here, yet. Which is the most contagious?