Hi Koala man and welcome;
Agree that we shouldnt be so cynical. We gets what we asks for. Budget time is a classic. The media interviews all the community "groups" who whine that "there was nothing in it for us" etc.... so everyone gets a candy whether its good for the country or not
A couple of alternative views;
1. Workchoices. I dont like them, they have gone a bit too far, but, the opposite far left alternative where the pendulum swings completely to the workers is just as bad. And with the majority of Labor being ex union people there is little to suggest that it wouldnt go back that way. I dont think workchoices is really an issue that will sway them. With very little unemployment the horror stories that were predicted are just not there and those that are have tended to be isolated so there is very little groundswell. Thats not to say thats okay, its not, but unless there were wholesale layoffs its just not going to hit home with the swingers.
2. This is all history
There are other big minuses for Howard & Co, eg:
- the childern overboard
- locking kids up in desert camps for the crime of having parents who fled regimes so brutal we sends our troops to war against them
- erosion of civil liberties
- the horrible things the immigration department has done to people like Mr Tran
- the GST
Howard is definately tainted with this, as he should be, but the electorate, particularly the swingers, have moved on and IMO is not an issue that will effect this election.
The haneef case was not bungled, as I pointed out in a previous thread, and most people IMO think "there must have been something" to warrant what happened. Once again I dont think this has any resonance with the swingers.
3. proposing to hand over to Costello.
This is an interesting one. IMO there are a lot of coalition voters who justifiably dislike Howard and his policies, particularly re the US and the war amongst other things. Costello is a viable alternative. Other than his approval for workchoices there are really no other skeletons in the closet so to speak. Though he has obviously towed the party line he has distanced himself from a lot of the stuff that howard is linked to. This handover tactic is very clever. The disaffected coalition supporters who like the way the economy is going but not Howard are happy because they can see an end in sight and those that like Howard are happy because he will be leaving when he is ready etc...
4. Climate change
I think those with a real interest in this will vote green. The major parties are way too soft on climate change. Labor may pick up a little here but its not the election winner IMO. Will affect the senate I think as the greens will pick up at least two seats. Then again the Democrats are done so the greens will need to grab those.
5. I think it will come down to two things in the end.
a. Interest rates. Those who can remember the huge interest rates, or are scared by the libs advertising re them, will vote coalition. Of course anyone with a brain would have locked in thier rates by now.:)
b. Rudds team. I like Rudd, Swann seems okay, but after that there is very little substance. The shadow immigration bloke seems good too. If the voters go with the presidential style one man show election then that will be good for labor. If they go for a team then that will go bad for labor.
So in short I dont think there is enough to tip enough of the swinging voters to dislodge 16 seats, particularly when you add in the complexities of each seat and the local issues that effect them.
Having re read this I come across as a coalition voter which may be a little sad :rolleyes:. I am very much a swinging voter and out of the last four elections am even stevens so to speak.
My vote will probably go to the coalition based purely on my belief that interest rates will go up and effect the country due to international issues but will go up a lot more under a labor govt, if, to quote Dr Phil, "Past behaviour predicts future behaviour".
If the interest rates were stable and Howard was not handing over then I would vote Labor.
cheers
dazzler