I listen to the press briefings on the WHO website every day when it is available. It is where I get all the facts and I will not follow anything on social medias or on the news.
Press briefings
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I listen to the press briefings on the WHO website every day when it is available. It is where I get all the facts and I will not follow anything on social medias or on the news.
Press briefings
Unfortunately the WHO briefings won’t tell us anything about when the currently unavailable widget that is out of stock in your local hardware is going to become available so it’s only natural to look elsewhere- not that anyone else can do that either.
This represents some VERY interesting opportunities.
Small makers and specialist builders with small operations should be jumping all over this.
It may represent an unrepeatable golden opportunity.
The VERY worst these businesses should do is pitch themselves as a Plan B for these end users. Obviously prices will change, but so will the quality. People, errr The Public, might see excellent value in receiving high quality items.
Plan B still requires that the maker source key items (screws, and such) from manufacturers outside Australia.Quote:
Originally Posted by woodPixel
Maybe that represents another opportunity?Quote:
Originally Posted by ian
The problem with broadcasting the possibility of shortages is that they're a self-fulfilling prophesy. Businesses stock up, then lead times blow out which alters the re-order trigger formulae used by inventory controllers.
Back in the late 70s some global expert predicted world wide shortages of practically everything. The bedlam lasted for about three years.
Many large companies recognise the danger of single sourcing and split their business but only the biggest can afford to dilute their purchasing power with impunity. Often the capital cost of custom tooling directs business to a single vendor.
mick
I remember reading TIME MAGAZINE article in about 1978 that said we were going to run massively short of oil by 1990, copper a few years later, and even uranium by 2025.Quote:
Originally Posted by Glider
The one that worries me a bit is the impact of global warming on the coffee industry.
Coffee only grows at a certain altitude and under specific weather conditions.
As the earth warms and climate gets more variable this translates into coffee trees requiring higher altitudes of which there is very limited arable land available so the coffee crop will be much reduced. This has already started to take effect as coffee trees are already dying at lower altitudes and have to be planted increasingly higher up mountain slopes
Apparently the bio people have been working on breeding a coffee plant that tolerates a warmer earth this but because there are so few genetic variants (just two) of coffee plants this is really hard to do. It also means that if a serious bug were to hit coffee trees it could seriously damaged most of the coffee plants all over the world.
LolQuote:
Originally Posted by BobL
Bob that made me laugh and cry , I to love a good coffee.
Maybe there is my problem,
Cheers Matt,
Hope this doesn’t cause offence, just thought it was amusing.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
Hhehe. BobL, I've beaten you to it. I hit up Amazon while they had coffee on special in January and bought 6 bags!
A bag lasts a month... if I ration it out, more... maybe I can be a noble when the apocalypse hits. Coffee might be a new currency. I'm rich!
Muhahaha!
We go through ~3 kg a month and it's roasted locally.Quote:
Originally Posted by woodPixel
SWMBO goes though about 2/3kg, just about everyone who drops around usually has one or two the rest are mine.
Every shot is 15-18g of coffee so each shot is slightly more than a double. The shots are pulled short to reduce caffeine a bit.
Quote:
Originally Posted by woodPixel
lightweights :)Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
I have over 300kg of green coffee in my garage ready to roast :)
I'm running short this week so I'll do a mini-roast for me on the weekend, and then I'll roast up for fam/friends the weekend after when I will usually roast 10-20kg.
But yes, the climate change has me worried too. Coronavirus at this point isn't worrying me around coffee supply
Are fellow chums on the WWF "friends" ;) :) :) :)Quote:
Originally Posted by poundy
You'll need to start a thread showing the process. Id LOVE a huge pile of coffee. :) :) :) :3 :3
Now I'm really worried. It could be time to start dabbling in cryonics for coffee.
mick :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
Don't worry, Bob. Many years ago I worked for an investment organisation and through that was chairman of a coffee company for five years. That scare has been around for at least 50 years!
There are two main species of commercial coffee in the world today.
Arabica is the highland coffee that grows on the mountainsides and produces the fine tasting stuff used in expresso and brewed coffee. Columbian, Ethiopian, PNG, etc, are all Arabica coffees.
Robustra is grown on hot, humid tropical lowlands. It is a much inferior product, taste-wise, and is used almost exclusively for instant coffee production.
Plant breeders are constantly improving all strains and have produced a hybrid - Arabustra - with less than stella results. As one coffee breeder told me - you cannot cross two species of grapes and expect the taste of cabernet sauvignon and the yields of sultana grapes; but we are trying....
Graeme
I will jump in here on Bob's behalf, although he is more than capable of speaking for himself, as I happen to know that for a while he was a judge in barista competitions. Having met him I know he has a thorough understanding of the two types of coffee bean and many aspects of coffee drinking and production. Actually, some people might argue there is only one coffee bean and then there is a berry which produces another instant drink, which is a similar colour to coffee. :)
Typically arabica coffee grows above 5000' (in tropical regions) and I think Bob was pointing out that the elevation might not be sufficient in the future if the climate continues to warm.
Your comment about the rumours of coffee plantations dying being evident for fifty years is probably true as global warming has been occurring for longer than that. There just has not been general acceptance of this phenomena. I particularly like your grape analogy.
Regards
Paul
Thanks Paul,
I have been following the coffee, climate, suitable elevation for growth for some time in the peer reviewed scientific literature and through contacts in the coffee business. These articles are easy to find so I won't quote any here. There are some potential climate change positives with improved production and pollination but these are unlikely to offset the negatives of reduced availability of land with a suitable elevation and increases in pest activity. The concern I have that suggests this is not just a rumour is that already in central America, Arabica coffee plants are less productive and lower quality at lower altitudes and coffee growers are having to move up to higher elevations to maintain production and more important quality. In some places this has been as much as 200m in vertical height. Unfortunately because most mountains have a finite height and culminate as peaks, at increased altitudes there is simply less suitable land.
As for Robusta - I will only drink it as a last resort :-)
Thanks guys. Just when I thought there wasn't enough to worry about with the global debt bubble and associated asset bubbles, climate change, bees dying, and an overall lack of natural resource availability into the future, you really bring it home where it hurts and specifically bring coffee into it. I'm already paying about $50- per kg + shipping for my coffee beans and I'm prepared to go as high as required provided I can afford it, but I'd rather not have to. Hopefully when the debt bubble pops we'll be in a recession long enough to dampen demand for everything and this will keep quality coffee at a reasonable price / availability - provided I still have a job...
But in all seriousness, I foresee that coffee won't be the only thing we are all fighting over in the near future if we don't figure out a way to slow our over-consumption of this planet.
Cheers,
Dom
It's not space on retail shelves that has me as worried as the space starting to appear in my retirement fund. Will likely have to cut back on shed toys if the markets keep going south like the last two days.
Regards
John
DomAU, you forgot Betelgeuse going supernova.
So far 6.2% downturn is not much compared to the massive growth we've seen over the last years or even last year. Maybe get out while things are still at record highs and go to cash?Quote:
Originally Posted by orraloon
Although cash isn't that safe either. Not many places to hide I feel.
Quite so. On the other hand these Asian workers do not live in countries offering their citizens free universal health, NDIS, a government spending some $40 billion or so on welfare support or, for that matter, a government able to lock in some $80 billion in today's money to buy 10, yes, TEN submarines. One billion here, one billion there, it soon adds up to money (with apologies to Tip O'Neil) !!!Quote:
Originally Posted by elanjacobs
We expect the high living standards of First World countries. One way or another, we have to pay for these standards and $2 per hour for Australian production workers simply won't do!
Am off my soap box...
Yvan
Absolutely and I am sure no one wants to lose the living standards we all enjoy but the harsh reality is we cannot have it both ways so it is fanciful to think we will be able to compete in manufacturingQuote:
Originally Posted by yvan
My daughter sent me the following link as a matter of urgency. She knows Craig Dalton, the author, at a personal level, but not at a professional level. My daughter, who is a very well balanced person, says that Craig too is a person not given to over dramatising and has posted this blog out of concern with no intent for personal gain:
Coronavirus: Analysts Don't Understand It - Craig Dalton | Seeking Alpha
I don't know Craig Dalton personally but he states his credentials right at the start and it is, to my mind, a considered appraisal. It is a false sense of confidence to stick our collective, wooden heads in the sand (my preferred strategy when confronted by anything, particularly if you give any credence to my wife's beliefs) so it is a heads up, but not good news I'm afraid. It looks to me as though things will get worse before they get better. This will apply even more to those of you approaching retirement age or already in retirement.
At least you may be in a position to take evasive action.
Regards
Paul
Despite Craig Dalton's excellent credentials (I've been involved in his Flutracking program for a few years) I'm reluctant to use/recommend any personal blogs etc for this sort of things. I'd ignore what's being said on social media (like this site :oo:) and most news services especially tabloids who don't or can't always interpret the officially provided info.
As stated above the most reliable international information is going to come out of WHO
Coronavirus disease 2019
If you want/need info closer to home
The Australian health Dept website
Coronavirus (COVID-19) health alert | Australian Government Department of Health
And links therein
Or even closer, the health Dept in your state
eg for WA its Coronavirus (COVID-19)
And links therein
One of my northern Italian relatives who lives about 50km from a couple of COVID19 affected and locked down villages posted this on FB (Ha Ha)
Attachment 469249
It translates roughly to
- Don't write BS on Social Media (SM)
- Don't read BS on SM
- Don't share BS in SM
- Don't comment on idiotic posts on SM
- Repeat 20 times, I'm not a virologist and I know nothing about viruses
- Wash your hands well and after and while you are at it, may be also your armpits
- Reread the above 6 times..
BobQuote:
Originally Posted by BobL
I hope you're right and the coffee keeps flowing.
Regards
Paul
Local coffee service has decidedly been below par with this broken ankle and the ongoing illness of the resident slave (SWMBO).Quote:
Originally Posted by Bushmiller
Despite a slight increase in visitors it looks like we are going to go for a full 5 weeks on the usual 3kg a month we get delivered.
Just as well a few mates have popped in and taken me out for a :coffee: during the week.
It would appear that there are elements around the world who place some credence to the seriousness of the outbreak and I have noticed there have been very few pix on this thread: We all love pix. So a few suggestions:
Just a quick disclaimer. As this is a blog and of little value none of these precautions can be recommended or endorsed by the Forum, the owner of the Forum, any moderators irrespective of age or indeed the originator of this post and neither have they been tested for effectiveness.
A full bodied model is recommended here:
Attachment 469277
Another dual purpose version, but frequent washing is advised if alternating between purposes:
Attachment 469278
Risk is worse on some days:
Attachment 469279
More is better; You just can't be too safe:
Attachment 469280
Probably not the best answer if your partner suffers from Delirium Tremens. You could be mistaken for a pink elephant:
Attachment 469281
Hermetically sealed, the ultimate, but a little restrictive; movement, talking, toilet, bank robbing...actually pretty much anything:
Attachment 469283
I am Darth Vader. I can kill you with one blow....from my mouth:
Attachment 469284
Humans are not the only creatures at risk:
Attachment 469286
This is to prevent "Reverse Zoonosis."
Attachment 469287
Regards
Paul
What I want to know is will the forum survive such a virus? Being us old blokes are more susceptible it could cut back numbers of active members.
This will also cause a glut of old tools and whole workshops to hit the market brining our beloved tools crashing down in value!
Those young blokes dont like old tools they prefer modern battery powered gizmos.
Might be worth keeping an eye on sales of pre wife sell offs.
Sent from my SM-T580 using Tapatalk
Couple of observationsQuote:
Originally Posted by wheelinround
Most (89%) Australians already die aged 65 or older.
For older males that become infected, the mortality rate of COVID19 is from~ 6% (for those aged 60 to 69) to ~25% (those aged over 80)
About 8% of blokes between 60 and 69 will die anyway so, provided all Australian males in this cohort catch COVID19 the additional deaths from COVID19 can at a max increase the death rate for this cohort from 8 to 14%
BUT
1) Not everyone will get COVID19
AND
2) As COVID19 kills more blokes with a pre-existing medical condition there will be a cross over between the 6% that die from COVID19 and the 8% that normally die.
I did a few back of the envelope calcs and estimated something like an increase in the total deaths rate of that cohort from 8% that normally die, to ~10% (those that would normally die + those from COVID19) which interestingly was the death rate for Aussie blokes aged 60-69 about 10 years ago.
Ultimately it will be the infection rate that will determine the number of blokes that pass away and hence tools that will become available.
My guess is that most fellas over 80 have given their gear away already?
Hahaha
All the problems the world is facing and everyone here is just worried about their tools and their coffee.
Just goes to show when push comes to shove you see what the real priorities are. :2tsup:
[QUOTE=wheelinround;2175946]What I want to know is will the forum survive such a virus? ......./QUOTE]
Just make sure you wear a mask when accessing the Forum !
As a younger member (sub 50) I will admit to seeing an upside after reading the last couple of posts.
All tools have their place, both old and the new electric gizmos and the more I can get the better.
When I expire from what ever cause, I am not going to worry about my tools.
I have a life membership of an organization. Every year they send out a membership card that has an expiry date. Does this suggest I am going to expire when the card does? Perhaps one day.
Wife is stocking up on items. We went out and bought a chest freezer. Not sure, but it is big enough to put a body in.
Hopefully there will not be a shortage of hardware items as so many of them are made in Asia, particularly China. Could get interesting if one is unable to buy consumables like screws or spare parts.
You forgot the stashes of timber under everyones house!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Beardy
You know, I see an upside in this.
I'm not old, but I'm not young... 50.
I've lived a lot, made some (i.e. "lots") hideous mistakes, experienced great joy, unique experiences and permanent happy memories. I've tried to be a good man.
I've known about this since December 18th. A lot longer than most.
One thing that has wrapped me, like a warm blanket, are a few thoughts and parables I remind myself of frequently.
First is the old Greek, Gnothi Seauton or for those Latin fans out there, Temet Nosce.
It's ancient, but so hard to do. Its like Ikigai.
The others are.....
Grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, Courage to change the things I can, And wisdom to know the difference - Serenity prayer
Ultimately, we're all dead men. Sadly, we cannot choose how, but what we can decide is how we meet that end, in order that we are remembered as men - Proximo
This is interesting
Attachment 469398
What are the x and y axes of that graph?
They're buried within the graph - X is how contagious, Y is how deadly.Quote:
Originally Posted by justonething