Katoomba Monthly Temp average set to be SMASHED!!! AGAIN!!!

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

George, unfortunately that is only anecdotal evidence, and dependent upon what type of thermometer (accuracy), was it calibrated correctly, was the temp taken correctly etc. I remember buckling roads too - everyone does - but have they changed the mixture/techniques for roadbuilding to counteract this phenomenon? You'd have to think that they should have. That evidence most certainly does not prove that CC does not exist (which I think is what you are hinting at).

The thing about recording temperatures is that Stevenson Screens have only been in use since the late 1800s and didn't become a standard until quite some time after that. This means that old temperature records are not reliable - very unfortunately.

it.

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Fully understand where you’re coming from, however I know for a fact that, back in the day, journalists verified claims and stories.

In this case it would have been with the BOM. So even though our amateurish temperature reading by a non-NATA calibrated thermometer, may not have been spot-on, it would have been within cooee of the real figure.

We had a close family friend that was associated with the newspapers as an editor (or some such position), and slander/here say/lies etc was big on their list of telling the truth.

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The single greatest factor in these current fires is the build up of fuel on the ground which is the direct result of the tree huggers having made it almost impossible to do low intensity burns which the aboriginals practiced for thousands of yrs in alternate seasons together with a forest worth of red tape, paper wielding bureaucratic public servants justify there existence at all levels of government and the closure of fire trails or minimal maintenance of them. I have travelled the fire trail that went from the Putty Rd, up over Gospers Mnt and to Newnes/Rylston, it used to be the training ground for the army and remote terrain air strip training for the RAAF, but the tree huggers have made sure its almost obliterated and now we are waiting to hear if we have lost the one natural habitat of the Wollemi Pines.
There are many documented cases of farmers having lost crops, livestock, sheds, homes because they are no longer allowed to clear fire breaks. They have stopped the farmers from grazing cattle in the high country of the Snowy which has led to an excessive fuel build up.

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There's been a lot of blame cast on the "tree huggers" by the Murdoch gutter press and the lunar right of the National and Liberal parties, and this has been picked up by people who can't be bothered to check the facts. It's claimed that they have prevented fuel reduction burns that would have reduced the severity of the fires.
I don't carry any brief for the Greens; they can be as crazy and corrupt as any other political party, but let's have a look at some facts.
The Greens NSW currently have 58 councillors on 32 local councils around NSW. There are 158 councils in NSW.
So they are averaging less than two greens on the each of the small number of councils on which they have any representation. Most of the councils on which they are represented are inner city ones, which have very little bush in which to carry out fuel reduction burns. Even in our area, which surprisingly, has two Green councillors, they have had no influence over the burns that have or have not been carried out. In my area, they attempted four hazard reduction burns, but only one could be carried out. Three had to be cancelled, not because of any opposition, but because of weather conditions.
Responsibilities for the burns lies across the Rural Fire Service (72000 volunteers, 900+ state government staff), Forestry Corporation of NSW (owned by the NSW Government) and National Parks NSW ( a NSW Government department). In the state parliament, the Greens have 3 out of 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly, and 3 out of 42 in the Legislative Assembly - hardly a position of strength from which to control, or even influence, policies on burn offs.
The only paperwork involved in preparing fire breaks is there to make sure they're done safely. Before the current safeguards, it wasn't uncommon for a burn done by a farmer to get away, and even during the current bushfires there have been several cases of illegal backburns. Farmers can be as stupid as anyone else.
It's easy to blame public servants, because they can't answer back. Just because you aren't allowed to do whatever you want doesn't mean they are wielding what little power they have improperly. They have to carry out the laws that the politicians you elect make, and where they have the power to make decisions, there's hell to pay if they get it wrong. Can you imagine the uproar the Daily Telegraph or Herald sun would make if a fire started from an authorised burn-off by a farmer.
It would be more helpful if people checked their facts before blaming "greenies" and "tree-huggers".

Not that cold in NZ, apparently.
New Zealand bushfires flare amid fears country becoming more ‘flammable’ | World news | The Guardian

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Originally Posted by cava

When I was growing up in Sydney in the 60’s, it was so hot that the newspapers used to have competitions for readers to report the highest temperature. The daily prizes was a lottery ticket.

Pavements were buckling, and this happened 2-3 times on front of our own house on successive years. We lived in Haberfield.

i remember recording 113F and ringing the newspaper to report it. Didn’t get the prize as it was not the highest temperature for the day.

A review of the BOM records today, does not have these high temperatures listed. They appear to have been deleted.

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The reason your "record" isn't in the BoM records is because it wasn't recorded in a standard weather station. There are very specific standards for these including, for temperature records, the height of the instruments and the design and colour of the Stevenson screen in which they are housed. If you hold a thermometer out in the sun, you will not record the air temperature, you will record the temperature of the thermometer, which is effected by the radiant heat from the sun. If you hold it low down near a bitumen road you will record the temperature of the road, again, not the air temperature.
I can assure you that if you take the trouble and pay some money for the time you are wasting, you can go to the original records and compare them to those freely available on the BoM website. In almost every case they will be the same, and where there are differences the reasons, and the method used to make the changes, will be documented.

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Originally Posted by AlexS

Responsibilities for the burns lies across the Rural Fire Service (72000 volunteers, 900+ state government staff), Forestry Corporation of NSW (owned by the NSW Government) and National Parks NSW ( a NSW Government department).

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And how much money has been gouged out of the NSW NPWS budget by the Premier? National Parks are nowhere near as important as rebuilding concrete stadia that are just 20-30 years old. (somewhat ironic that the justification for tearing down the Sydney Football Stadium was because of fire risk....)

Craig Kelly opening his mouth to change feet

Australia fires: Craig Kelly slammed by Piers Morgan over climate change denial in car crash British TV interview

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

And how much money has been gouged out of the NSW NPWS budget by the Premier? National Parks are nowhere near as important as rebuilding concrete stadia that are just 20-30 years old. (somewhat ironic that the justification for tearing down the Sydney Football Stadium was because of fire risk....)

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Quite a bit, I believe. It's a bit hard to tell, because they've merged/demerged departments, so a department may appear to have more money, but have many more staff to support, with the overall reduction appearing on another department's books. Not sure if that's what's happened with NPWS.

At least one of the absolute experts on fire says the more hazard reduction burns are not the answer.
Victorian fire chief says calls for more fuel reduction burns are an 'emotional load of rubbish' - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

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Originally Posted by AlexS

The reason your "record" isn't in the BoM records is because it wasn't recorded in a standard weather station. There are very specific standards for these including, for temperature records, the height of the instruments and the design and colour of the Stevenson screen in which they are housed. If you hold a thermometer out in the sun, you will not record the air temperature, you will record the temperature of the thermometer, which is effected by the radiant heat from the sun. If you hold it low down near a bitumen road you will record the temperature of the road, again, not the air temperature.
I can assure you that if you take the trouble and pay some money for the time you are wasting, you can go to the original records and compare them to those freely available on the BoM website. In almost every case they will be the same, and where there are differences the reasons, and the method used to make the changes, will be documented.

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All very valid Alex,

And I concur that the recording of the temperature results should be precise and to a given area.

But:

1. There must have been very hot years over a substantial area of Sydney and surrounds for at least one major newspaper to have a regular daily competition reporting the ‘HIGH’ temperatures. And yet the BOM figures from multiple weather stations do not report this higher than usual temperature range.

2. The cracked/damaged pavements around Sydney due to expansion. In my own case, I remember this happening 2-3 times in 2-3 individual years outside my own home. Each time the concrete was repaired with the appropriate expansion joints.
Of interest, is that you could see underneath the raised concrete path. The foundation bed was coal - my understanding was that coal was used prior to WW1 as bedding for concrete paths. This aligns with the fact that Haberfield was/is a heritage suburb. The path appears to have been the original path from when it was initially laid down.

It has to be assumed that if the temperatures were reasonably static over the previous ~60 years, there would be evidence of ‘maintenance’ to the path if regular temperatures caused the issues I viewed in the 1960 ‘s.

It certainly is food for thought!

Is this naturally occurring CC?

Attachment 466678

Ive posted this cartoon before.... but its so true...

What I DON'T UNDERSTAND about CCD-ers, is *why*.

WHY are they so violently opposed. WHY do they seemingly go over the handbars overs something that is obvious? WHY do they see no change, when a 10 year old child can see it?

Are their brains dysfunctional? Isn't it strange how its the same mental raving mob thats in the Liberal, Ultra right, shouty, religious, rich crowd....

The arguement is irrelevant. The fixing of it is critical.

Attachment 466679

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Originally Posted by woodPixel

Attachment 466679

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:roflmao2:

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Originally Posted by RossM

What Is the Sun's Role in Climate Change? – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

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That is a very interesting read Ross - thanks for posting. I have subscribed to NASA's newsletter.

Significant takeaways from that are:
"Per Rignot et al 2019, Antarctica is losing six times more ice mass annually now than 40 years ago"

"We know subtle changes in Earth’s orbit around the Sun are responsible for the comings and goings of the past ice ages. But the warming we’ve seen over the last few decades is too rapid to be linked to changes in Earth’s orbit, and too large to be caused by solar activity."

"...while a grand minimum might cool the planet as much as 0.3 degrees C, this would, at best, slow down (but not reverse) human-caused global warming. There would be a small decline of energy reaching Earth, and just three years of current carbon dioxide concentration growth would make up for it."

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Climate change, yes, we do have climate change, look at the ice ages, they came, went and came again

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From NASA: It is virtually certain that orbital forcing will be unable to trigger widespread glaciation during the next 1,000 years. (snip) Climate models simulate no glacial inception during the next 50,000 years if CO2 concentrations remain above 300 ppm.

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We don't need to plan for 1,000 years, let alone 50,000.....we need to get through the next 100....maybe even the next 10 at the rate things are going currently!


If the CCDs can quote people with the authority of NASA, or the IPCC with evidence to the contrary then that is worth reading and observing. The opinions of the likes of Alan Jones, Chris Kenny, Andrew Bolt, and the biggest climate eggspurt of them all - Murdoch - mean absolutely nothing. That bunch are just cashing in on the prevailing mood of the naysayers - after all, if they didn't have something to beat up and moan about, what would be the point of Sky After Fark?

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

At least one of the absolute experts on fire says the more hazard reduction burns are not the answer.
Victorian fire chief says calls for more fuel reduction burns are an 'emotional load of rubbish' - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

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According to him and there are always other views NSW fires: Hunter Valley property owners say indigenous cultural burning saved their property

If anyone lives in a bushfire prone area they either accept the risk or they should move. My backyard is The Royal National Park boundary and the many forum members who have been to my place will tell you how it is situated on the top of a gully. The other day someone asked what was our plan, I responded with grab what is not insured and run which is exactly what we did in 2000 when this town was evacuated. I have been in some big fires and anyone who is delusional enough to think they can put a big fire out is snorting some good stuff. There is no way to describe the experience to anyone, it just is not possible. I left the firies after a fire went over the top of the truck sometime before the 2000 fire and have no desire to go back.

It's finally raining properly here right now, but there's also a fair bit of loud and bright lightning.

Attachment 466691

My take on burn offs is most probably a bit different to other peoples. The burn offs are too big in height and get into the tree foliage, the foliage dies back and then drops onto the ground and the debris fuel load is made bigger when the next big wind goes through creating a bigger problem. What they should do is then repeat in the same area at a very low height some months later to get rid of that debris covering but in reality the whole of Oz needs to be burnt and that ain't gonna happen. When we had a fire that went into the National Park we were supposed to ring them and they would respond and put it out. Quite often we couldn't find a phone to ring up from and the two way radio didn't work either.

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Originally Posted by Chris Parks

According to him and there are always other views NSW fires: Hunter Valley property owners say indigenous cultural burning saved their property

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Yes but he's not saying that hazard reduction doesn't work - just not the only thing in the mix. I have no doubt that experienced Black Fellas know exactly what they are doing. Just another reason why we need their culture to survive and thrive.

Here's another thing to bake your noodle...

Industrial methane emissions are underreported, study finds | Cornell Chronicle

I've recently decided that I don't believe in cancer.

mick

Last week, Mrs fletty and I were trapped on the fire devastated NSW South Coast. We were evacuated a number of times as a trip back via Canberra or the Snowy Mountains was blocked by fires and the trip north on the coast went through some terrible scenes. We luckily were self sufficient for food and water as we didn’t want to use anything that was needed by displaced locals and we slept in the car. Now, my memory of sleeping in the car a few decades ago is a memory of romance and excitement but the current reality is one of rolling out of the car in the early hours of daylight and wandering around for an hour or so looking like the hunchback of Notre Dame until my skeleton could straighten up again. I spent some time in the evacuation centres hoping to get reliable information because, with power gone, mobile phones and the web soon followed. We had the car radio but the ABC’s far south coast radio station, which is the emergency station, appeared to have burnt out. In these evacuation centres I constantly heard locals, who have suffered more than I can even imagine, talking about how these fires behaved differently to any they had encountered before and the general consensus was that these fires FIRST travelled along the ground not through the tree tops and that they were then exposed to the likelihood of a second wave travelling through the crowns.
My photos ( and only the less confronting ones are included here) showed the crowns relatively intact but the ground line utterly devastated.....

Attachment 466708 Attachment 466710

........ and so it easy to see why the locals, and especially the experienced ones, believe that lack of back burning is the most significant culprit to enable such an historic drought to turn to fire devastation.

There's possibly no such thing as a 100% safe hazard reduction burn. I can see why authorities are reluctant to carry out too many because the media scream blue murder when one goes awry. That narrows the windows of opportunity available over winter.

I'd like to see the fire spotting towers manned again. Someone told me they stopped the practice for safety reasons. I'm trying to understand why the people in the tower couldn't see the danger approaching and get out. Water bombing a small blaze must surely be more effective than a major inferno.

mick

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If the CCDs can quote people with the authority of NASA, or the IPCC with evidence to the contrary then that is worth reading and observing. The opinions of the likes of Alan Jones, Chris Kenny, Andrew Bolt, and the biggest climate eggspurt of them all - Murdoch - mean absolutely nothing. That bunch are just cashing in on the prevailing mood of the naysayers - after all, if they didn't have something to beat up and moan about, what would be the point of Sky After Fark?

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Yeah, but, FF, you left out the ultimate expert, "Some bloke on Facebook".

Was listening to a researcher interviewed on Sydney ABC radio just now. A very brief summary of his take on hazard reduction burns was as follows: For a period of from 2-6 years after the burn, the likelihood of destructive fires is reduced. After that, for a period of up to 20 (I think) years the risk returns to high levels, until the forest matures and the amount of ground cover and fuel again reduces. Bear in mind, this is one researcher, and I'll have to look up the reference and check my memory of the numbers.

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Originally Posted by Glider

That narrows the windows of opportunity available over winter.

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Which is now the start, and in 2020 the probable end, of the bushfire season.

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Originally Posted by Glider

Someone told me they stopped the practice for safety reasons.

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Summink to do with potentially having to climb through the methane cloud of the previous ladder climber? Having had the misfortune to have walked through a couple of methane clouds at a certain Oberon farm, I can quite understand the danger.....

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

We don't need to plan for 1,000 years, let alone 50,000.....we need to get through the next 100....maybe even the next 10 at the rate things are going currently!

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Brett

Well said. In fact I think if we can get through and adapt for the early years (10 to 100) those remaining years will be easily taken care of by the strategies already in place. Remember that old adage of "Look after the pennies and the pounds will take care of themselves."

You have to say that it is highly ironic that a country that is demonstrably one of those most likely to suffer from adverse weather changes is so adamant that it is not happening. The Emu is a very close relative of the Ostrich I believe. Perhaps we have too many Ostriches in Oz. They all have two legs. Some have a small head and some a boofhead.

Canberra has had a few smoke issues and has recorded it's worst smoke pollution ever. In fact all government depts were closed as a result: Including the one that deals with bushfire crises.

Regards
Paul

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Originally Posted by AlexS

After that, for a period of up to 20 (I think) years the risk returns to high levels, until the forest matures and the amount of ground cover and fuel again reduces.

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I would have thought it would also depend on rainfall in the given period too - not because of rain retarding fires but because it would promote rotting and breaking down of the leaf/bark litter.

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Originally Posted by Chris Parks

Craig Kelly opening his mouth to change feet

Australia fires: Craig Kelly slammed by Piers Morgan over climate change denial in car crash British TV interview

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Chris

Talk about putting both feet in your mouth! Pome weather girl. Tobin took "umbrage" (love that word. I have a mate whose nickname was "umbrage."). Her qualifications are a degree in physics and meteorology and spent four years as an aviation caster at the RAF before taking a role as a weather forecaster with the BBC. Kelly was a furniture salesman before entering parliament.......!

Now I have nothing against salesman, having spent a little time as one myself in a former life, but is this indicative of government officials lack of knowledge and their consequent denials that climate change is happening. It seems to be the only plausible explanation for their attitudes.

Regards
Paul

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Anyone still need convincing about greenhouse gases causing Climate Change?
What's missing for the argument to be convincing?
What will it actually take for man-made CC deniers to be convinced?

Given the current situation, the overwhelming evidence and agreement amongst the scientists, I think it is not an unfair question to ask of deniers: name the threshold where the denial arguments are found and accepted to be fallacious (by the deniers).

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

What if it is ultimately proven that the deniers were wrong all along, and that it is then TOO LATE to do enough about it to stop the catastrophic, irreversible damage?
What are the deniers going to do or say then? "SORRY"?

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Coming to the part that I just don't understand:

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

(snip)
Are they (CCDs) concerned about jobs? If it's not jobs that is the problem, then is it the cost?

What is it?
Anybody?

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These are not just questions within rhetoric: these are questions that need answering by deniers. In the face of the current evidence you can't just say "It's all bullsh and I don't believe it" without saying what the reasons for not implementing change are.

An absence of answers can only mean one thing: there is no reason not to change, and there is no reason to keep denying.

Is silence to be interpreted as a tacit concession?

"Prophecy" is a poor journalese choice of word, and "Forecast" is much better, but:
Ross Garnaut's climate change prophecy is coming true and it's going to cost Australia billions, experts warn - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Have a read of this. A comparison of attitudes from politicians on both sides of politics in relation to crises:

Friendlyjordies - Dear Your Majesty | Facebook

Needless to say Morrison does not fare well. Even Abbott gets a bouquet (on a personal level as a human being). In fact I would recommend that if you are a Morrison fan you do not open the link. I cannot recall a more complete annihilation of a single person in some time. There again, there is a lot of ammunition available.

Regards
Paul

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

I would have thought it would also depend on rainfall in the given period too - not because of rain retarding fires but because it would promote rotting and breaking down of the leaf/bark litter.

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He mentioned that the times depend on a number of factors including type of forest & climate.

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Originally Posted by Glider

I'd like to see the fire spotting towers manned again. Someone told me they stopped the practice for safety reasons. I'm trying to understand why the people in the tower couldn't see the danger approaching and get out. Water bombing a small blaze must surely be more effective than a major inferno.

mick

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They could probably do this via satellite these days I would of thought?

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Originally Posted by Beardy

They could probably do this via satellite these days I would of thought?

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That's a very good thought. Overcast weather would be problematic but it would certainly be another tool for the kit. A BIG advantage of satellite spotting would be that the precise co-ordinates of the smoke could be parsed along to the water bombing aircraft instantly.

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Originally Posted by Bushmiller

Have a read of this. A comparison of attitudes from politicians on both sides of politics in relation to crises:

Friendlyjordies - Dear Your Majesty | Facebook

Needless to say Morrison does not fare well. Even Abbott gets a bouquet (on a personal level as a human being). In fact I would recommend that if you are a Morrison fan you do not open the link. I cannot recall a more complete annihilation of a single person in some time. There again, there is a lot of ammunition available.

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This link is Pure gold. I despise all poli's, but Bushmillers referral is spot on.

https://www.facebook.com/friendlyjor...5460241025646/

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

That's a very good thought. Overcast weather would be problematic but it would certainly be another tool for the kit. A BIG advantage of satellite spotting would be that the precise co-ordinates of the smoke could be parsed along to the water bombing aircraft instantly.

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UV and infrared are transparent through clouds?

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Overcast weather would be problematic but it would certainly be another tool for the kit.

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Infra red spotting would not be affected by cloud cover.

Right you are then - satellite spotting it is then!

Paul, that is an excellent takedown by friendlyjordie. I've seen him in action ripping into Clive Palmer because CP wanted to sue him because Jordie called him Fatty McF*ckhead. It can be found on YouTube.

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Originally Posted by Bushmiller

In fact I would recommend that if you are a Morrison fan you do not open the link.

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That should read
"if you are the Morrison fan"

In the first instance, and perhaps even before we develop strategies to combat the effects of climate change, we may need some of those Boeing 747 water bombers.

747 Supertanker - Wikipedia

One issue I can see for Australia is the question of where they can take off and land. For example the Millmerran International airport is not rated at anything larger than a twin engine turbo prop. I guess that most of the fires are within 300km of the coast and major airports. There may also be better access to water supplies too. I will look forward to seeing them water bomb in our region (assuming a fire of course) at less than 500m. About three large rainwater tanks in one trip (74000L)

Regards
Paul

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Right you are then - satellite spotting it is then!

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Does Australia have access/control of a geostationary, IR capable satellite with sensors sensitive enough to pinpoint small areas over all of Australia? We seem to get hotspot data from some of NASA's weather satellites. I should state that I have not done any research and get all my information from 'some bloke on facebook'.

A mix of aircraft is the key of course. At 74000 litres it would take about 8 Elvis trips (9500 litres) to get the same volume of water, but they are two different things. A massive dump from whatever safe altitude a Jumbo can do up here would take at least 60 minutes from Mascot (return time) plus refill time plus delays due to it being an International Airport. I do not know if a Jumbo can land at Richmond Air Base....wait a sec....yes they can, so that would be a much better solution, but I don't know how long it takes to get the altitude needed, nor at what safe altitude above the escarpment it would need.

On this map you can see Mascot Airport at the extreme lower right, Richmond in the upper middle, and Echo Point on the left. Richmond is just 45kms from the fire epicentre at that time.

Attachment 466723


Elvis, OTH, can deliver its 9500 litres every 6 minutes in this particular location (difficult flying around the Blue Mountains escarpments too - they can be 500m high and at 90°), and with pretty good low altitude precision. Before Xmas there was massive 'copter activity here at the Ruined Castle fire (just 3kms off Echo Point). The refill lake is just 1km from my house, and so the round trip is about 13kms. I observed both ends of the cycle more times than I can count. I never did get to see Elvis (or whichever one is "730") refilling but I could hear it and see it rising up from my front yard. Observing it dropping down into the valley Echo Point was amazing. You don't realise just how far down it goes from the lookout, but the copter became tiny. Then it would come up and fly right past where I was standing near Echoes Guesthouse on the edge of the escarpment. It was about 40-50 metres away, and you can then see it is a very substantial copter! Bloody thing dripped water on the car once!

Ruined Castle is the blue diamond at the bottom, refill lake is at the top and I'm just above the A32 sign. Blue diamond to blue lake is 6.6kms

Attachment 466724

Where I see a Jumbo being useful is to attack a cliff fire like this. That was up near Blackheath I believe - I didn't see that particular one but I did see the same thing shooting up Narrowneck Peninsula from the Ruined Castle fire in mid December. It's not quite vertical there - probably about 75-80°. Elvis would be a bit useless in that situation.