CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

I'm not sure if this research Data shows coronavirus can only be controlled if 8 out of 10 Australians stay home - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) has already been posted in this or a similar thread

https://www.abc.net.au/cm/lb/1208623...ponse-data.png


As of 26 March, Australia is sitting at >2800 cases of coronavirus, so either physical distancing is less than 70% compliance, or was begun too late in the outbreak.

Not taht it makes much difference either way.

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Originally Posted by ian

As of 26 March, Australia is sitting at >2800 cases of coronavirus, so either physical distancing is less than 70% compliance, or was begun too late in the outbreak. Not that it makes much difference either way.

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It was begun too late but hindsight is 20/20. Each time the brakes are applied, we wait about two weeks for a result. It reminds me of the brakes on my ute.

I still shaking my head about the hairdressers. ! In this case I know it's not Peter Dutton pushing it.

mick

Just watching Melatonia bragging about how well everything is going, and the great G20 meeting. Looking forward journalists' questions to him on having now the world's highest number of cases at 81,000+

Coronavirus Live Updates: U.S. Now Has More Known Cases Than Any Other Country - The New York Times

Our old mate Kevin Dudd has chimed in this morning regarding the serious explosion in cases in Indonesia, tweeting “this has grave concern for the international security of both Jakarta and Canberra. It will require solidarity and deeply skilled diplomacy ahead”.
I guess he’s looking for a job.

latest estimates are that more than half of the most populous nation per square km on earth are infected, about 150 million people.

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Just watching Melatonia bragging about how well everything is going, and the great G20 meeting. Looking forward journalists' questions to him on having now the world's highest number of cases at 81,000+

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I'm surprised DT hasn't claimed that as part of his MAGA campaign.

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Originally Posted by riverbuilder

Our old mate Kevin Dudd has chimed in this morning regarding the serious explosion in cases in Indonesia, tweeting “this has grave concern for the international security of both Jakarta and Canberra. It will require solidarity and deeply skilled diplomacy ahead”.
I guess he’s looking for a job.

latest estimates are that more than half of the most populous nation per square km on earth are infected, about 150 million people.

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He would be perfect for the job with his multi lingual skills and he speaks fluently in crap as well

I'll be honest ian, that fact that our economy is currently being thrown under a bus because a computer model tells us we have to isolate, is nothing short of alarming.

Coronavirus exposes the problems and pitfalls of modelling | Science | The Guardian

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British statistician George Box: “All models are wrong, but some are useful.”

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Have a look at the following;

Coronavirus data reveals how COVID-19 is spreading in Australia - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Attachment 470549

Virtually all of the issues that we currently face are a direct result of people STILL arriving here from overseas. When that finally stops we will see a decrease in the numbers. Undoubtedly at this point the gubment will jump up and down claiming it was their management of the situation that created the curve flattening, when in reality it was their lack of leadership that created this whole mess to start with.

It is certain that a significant portion of the country will experience the full brunt of this virus......but it's still too early....because it's not cold enough. And we should not be throwing the whole economy under a bus. This is why people in North Queensland want to isolate themselves, not really from the virus....more really the crap leadership and economy trashing.

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Originally Posted by Feckit

... This is why people in North Queensland want to isolate themselves, not really from the virus....more really the crap leadership and economy trashing.

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This has been the argument since federation :)

The graph that is more worrying for NSW is this one

Attachment 470550

It showing that that the number of new infections with unknown sources is rapidly rising in comparison to other causes. According to the press today that is due to people not heeding the current warnings and not practicing isolating and distancing.

Virtually all of the issues that we currently face are a direct result of people STILL arriving here from overseas. When that finally stops we will see a decrease in the numbers. Undoubtedly at this point the gubment will jump up and down claiming it was their management of the situation that created the curve flattening, when in reality it was their lack of leadership that created this whole mess.

This is 100% correct, and I note that all the expatriate owners of bars hotels and resorts over there are now whining that their income has gone and they want to come home. This is becoming a cyclic thing, but this time they are bringing a viral death sentence with them, for lots of us.
Indonesia has already put it’s hand out for financial help during this crisis ( which they were denying and saying the power of prayer will stop it) as late as last weekend. I wonder how much the Australian government will send them? Maybe they can sell a few of those Apache attack helicopters they bought with the money we sent them last time?

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Originally Posted by Glider

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I still shaking my head about the hairdressers. ! In this case I know it's not Peter Dutton pushing it.

mick

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Who would be stupid enough to go to a hairdresser??? Perhaps they may forfeit their place in the gene pool?

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Originally Posted by GraemeCook

Who would be stupid enough to go to a hairdresser??? Perhaps they may forfeit their place in the gene pool?

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You might be on shaky ground... :-)

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Just watching Melatonia bragging about how well everything is going, and the great G20 meeting. Looking forward journalists' questions to him on having now the world's highest number of cases at 81,000+

Coronavirus Live Updates: U.S. Now Has More Known Cases Than Any Other Country - The New York Times

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Didn't see Melanoma, just the FWIC on the same topic.

You missed the obvious headline!

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Originally Posted by GraemeCook

Who would be stupid enough to go to a hairdresser??? Perhaps they may forfeit their place in the gene pool?

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Here's a couple:

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Originally Posted by doug3030

Today I was second in the line at the fruit and vege shop, and because I take it seriously because of my medical conditions I was standing right at the end of the checkout while the person being served was down the other end near the cashier, over a metre of "social distancing". A woman joined the queue behind me and stood so close I could feel her breath on my arm.

I politely said to her "Excuse me but do you really think it is advisable to stand that close together?"

She snapped back "Well if you Fu*k!ng moved up the counter I could put my stuff on it."

Me: "Are you aware that we are supposed to be practicing social distancing?"

Her: "Do you think I am a ***king leper or something?

Me: "No not at all, it's just what the Government is recommending because of he pandemic."

Her: "Don't give me that %h!t, I'm not a f**&ing idiot."

Somehow I kept my cool and paid for my shopping and left while she continued to cast aspersions on my parentage to anyone who would listen.

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Originally Posted by doug3030

Idiot #2 for the day:

Jools came home on the train and walked from the station to Woolies. I parked in the car park out the front to wait for her. Just sitting in the car listening to the radio with the window down. Next thing I know there is a head in the car with me, intruding through the window, asking me if I want to buy a raffle ticket. I just turned the ignition key to on and hit the window up button and the head magically withdrew from the car's interior. The head then started streaming profanities at me through the glass, but I just picked up the phone and started up the camera. Unfortunately once the phone came out the head disappeared before I could actually start recording. Social distancing and Covid-19 aside that was too intrusive any day of the week. What the hell are people thinking?

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Originally Posted by doug3030

I had to stop as pedestrian lights in Essendon while I was driving on Friday. A woman crossed the road in front of me wearing a mask tied over her face. When she was walking directly in front of my car I noticed that I could see right through the mask from one side to the other. It was touching above her nose and under her chin but the sides were right away from her face. Not sure what it was achieving.

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I can give more examples if you like.

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Originally Posted by BobL

Looks positive but the Italian Authorities are still concerned the general population will slacken off their vigilance as they will need to keep this up for some time. This is the time that's the hardest to cope with as coming off the brake too early could easily result in a rebound. The will also be a subsequent waves to contend with.

The Italians imposed a full lock down in their most affected regions some 4 weeks ago when they about 1/4 of the cases and the same number of deaths Australia has now. The Italian data suggests it takes 4 weeks to see a significant change in the curve so we should have been at full lock down at least one week ago.
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So true, Bob.

Researchers in the COVID-19 Response Team at Imperial College, London looked at this issue and included it in their paper published on 16 March 2020. From their modelling, they concluded that if the suppression measures are stopped too early then the virus may rebound and be worse than no action at all.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

Attachment 470563

Just saw another ordinary performance from the PM and then switched over to watch US ABC news - he really needs to see more of this sort of thing.

I understand he wants to keep as many people at work as possible. However, unless we're talking about DT how can any leader look a shoe sales assistant, schoolteacher's, or hair dresser's family in they eye 6 weeks from now and say "the death of your family member doesn't count, I kept you working" ?

If we ask any unnecessary worker today if they would sacrifice their unnecessary job for the life of a family member or friend then I think we'd know most of their answers.

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Originally Posted by BobL

If we ask any unnecessary worker today if they would sacrifice their unnecessary job for the life of a family member or friend then I think we'd know most of their answers.

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But of course we don't ask that question. There's no doubt that decisions that involve balancing lives and costs are far easier to take when the life at issue is not likely to be your own. It is one thing to think in terms of trade-offs when those who will be affected are anonymous draws from a large population and quite another when it is a matter of family and friends.

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Originally Posted by Tccp123

But of course we don't ask that question. There's no doubt that decisions that involve balancing lives and costs are far easier to take when the life at issue is not likely to be your own. It is one thing to think in terms of trade-offs when those who will be affected are anonymous draws from a large population and quite another when it is a matter of family and friends.

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And yet, we make those trade-offs all the time, every day, with many decisions we make. We take risks with our lives all the time, be it to save time, make money, get some sort of enjoyment etc. For some reason a virus is far more scary though for most people - myself included. Rationally, I know that riding 90km to work and home most days on 100kph single lane roads with no shoulder, in rain, fog, dark etc is far far more likely to kill me than this virus - yet it doesn't stop me doing it.

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Originally Posted by DomAU

And yet, we make those trade-offs all the time, every day, with many decisions we make. We take risks with our lives all the time, be it to save time, make money, get some sort of enjoyment etc. For some reason a virus is far more scary though for most people - myself included. Rationally, I know that riding 90km to work and home most days on 100kph single lane roads with no shoulder, in rain, fog, dark etc is far far more likely to kill me than this virus - yet it doesn't stop me doing it.

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You've hit the nail on the head!

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Originally Posted by Tccp123

But of course we don't ask that question. There's no doubt that decisions that involve balancing lives and costs are far easier to take when the life at issue is not likely to be your own. It is one thing to think in terms of trade-offs when those who will be affected are anonymous draws from a large population and quite another when it is a matter of family and friends.

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Also, if the government wasn't handing out other people's money left and right, I wonder how many of us would be happy to give up our source of any income to mitigate this risk - really, think about it, imagine no safety-net at all, would you be happy to quit and not get any income at all for as long as it might take to completely stop the spread? I don't know the answer - but the question is definitely there - as are the impacts on a national / global level.

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Originally Posted by DomAU

And yet, we make those trade-offs all the time, every day, with many decisions we make. We take risks with our lives all the time, be it to save time, make money, get some sort of enjoyment etc. For some reason a virus is far more scary though for most people - myself included. Rationally, I know that riding 90km to work and home most days on 100kph single lane roads with no shoulder, in rain, fog, dark etc is far far more likely to kill me than this virus - yet it doesn't stop me doing it.

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Humm . . . . I understand what you are driving at BUT there are significant differences.
You riding your bike on a dangerous road is personal. Your death is unlikely to cause someone else to lose their life.
The moron drink driver is more applicable but even then they might take no more than a handful of people.
Carrying on an unnecessary job and not staying home is, in the current climate, much more likely to result in many more people dying.

Comparisons with motor vehicles are complicated, considerable economic and benefit comes about from using motor vehicles including saving many lives, fighting fires etc.

What does COVID give us?

COVID is more like the a war than motor vehicles.

When the bombs were falling everyone except the absolutely necessary workers like ackack gunners, wardens, and police headed for the air raid shelters. Do we think the Spaniards or Italians are today sitting around worrying about making sure everyone has an unnecessary job? By the time we have a few hundred deaths it may be too late to turn the ship around.

When the enemy artillery are decimating our troops at the front we don't return fire with every second of our smaller guns and make sure everyone has an unnecessary job - we give em back everything we've got.

It would be a different thing if those in unnecessary employment were set to work in more useful employment.

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Originally Posted by riverbuilder

latest estimates are that more than half of the most populous nation [ie Indonesia] per square km on earth are infected, about 150 million people.

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Latest estimates by whom?

I don’t know anything about the panel of medical experts that are advising our government but assume by some comments here and elsewhere that some think they don’t know what they are talking about?

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Originally Posted by Beardy

I don’t know anything about the panel of medical experts that are advising our government but assume by some comments here and elsewhere that some think they don’t know what they are talking about?

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I don't really question the advice that is given. I question whether the actions taken by the government truly reflect the original advice that is given. My take is that the version we are fed is much modified at best and cherry picked at worst.

Regards
Paul

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Originally Posted by Beardy

I don’t know anything about the panel of medical experts that are advising our government but assume by some comments here and elsewhere that some think they don’t know what they are talking about?

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I don't think it's so much that, it's more when someone says "A panel of experts said..." or "Recent studies have shown..." it ain't necessarily so.

You have to wonder when one day it’s 30 minutes only in Hairdressers then it’s OK to stay for hours as usual the next.
Did the experts recommend 30 minutes then the Govt over rule them or did the Govt say 30 minutes then the experts say no, carry on as usual?

Then there’s the case of the Govt order that all gyms must be closed, so a gym owner closes his gym to clients but starts making videos from his gym for his clients to use at home (with no clients at the gym) but the police close him down because gyms have to be closed.?

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Originally Posted by Beardy

I don’t know anything about the panel of medical experts that are advising our government but assume by some comments here and elsewhere that some think they don’t know what they are talking about?

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...and of course the other confronting fact is that governments don't always disclose everything that's going on (for all the right reasons). Some recent examples I've come across were the Australian government's reaction after the bombing of Darwin during WWII when 240 odd people were killed. They suppressed that news because in their opinion it would have had a negative effect on the war effort. Maybe, maybe not but the fact is they didn't tell the rest of the Australian people what had happened.

The other example that comes to mind is the number of casualties reported after the Rape of Nanking. Chinese history books report it as being more than 300,000. Japanese history books report it as being 45.

Don't believe everything you're told...

Indonesia is not that bad according to worldometer

Indonesia Coronavirus: 1,046 Cases and 87 Deaths - Worldometer

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Originally Posted by Tccp123

Don't believe everything you're told...

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Having worked in Military Intelligence for 20 years I have heaps of similar stories that I can't tell about what really happened and what the public was told. :rolleyes:

OK, cue the oxymoron jokes if you really feel you must - I've heard them all before. :wink:

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Originally Posted by doug3030

Having worked in Military Intelligence for 20 years I have heaps of similar stories that I can't tell about what really happened and what the public was told. :rolleyes:

OK, cue the oxymoron jokes if you really feel you must - I've heard them all before. :wink:

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Hahaha! Leading with the chin. I like that! :-)

Here's some good news to brighten up the mood:

Prince Andrew tests positive for Gonorrhoea – Cutting News

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Originally Posted by Beardy

I don’t know anything about the panel of medical experts that are advising our government but assume by some comments here and elsewhere that some think they don’t know what they are talking about?

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Wearing my cynical hat, Trumpesque tactics are easy, you pick the panel of experts that will give you the advice you want to hear. If someone is difficult you just replace them. We never hear what all the suggestions are that RE discussed or how they are voted on. There's probably a bit of bully boy tactics and lots of selective data in there as well. It reminds me of one of my students who went to work for the cops as a crime data analyst/mapper. One of his weekly jobs was to mine crime data for anything positive for the ministers weekly cabinet meeting.

I'm somewhat unimpressed at the focus on OS travellers.
If the only people who get tested for COVID19 are persons who have been overseas, or people who have been in contact with people who have been overseas then is it surprising there'a little evidence for local infection? I see VIC is about to test every 5th person that goes to a COVID19 clinic irrespective of the above criteria. Why wasn't this done back at day dot?

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Originally Posted by BobL

Why wasn't this done back at day dot?

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We all know the answer to that. No one knew where this was going...

Maybe a lack of test kits?

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Originally Posted by Lappa

Indonesia is not that bad according to worldometer
Indonesia Coronavirus: 1,046 Cases and 87 Deaths - Worldometer

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Their case numbers are almost meaningless as they have the lowest #tests/capita, 17 tests per million inhabitants, CF, AUS = 7442 and Iceland = 29k

FWIW USA has 1700, pretty poor really

See; COVID-19 testing - Wikipedia

Australia’s pretty good re tests per million compared to most others.

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Originally Posted by Lappa

Maybe a lack of test kits?

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Yes it was but they wouldn't come out and say this - all they said we are directing tests to where they thought it would do the most good but they have almost ZERO tests on random local transmission. Hopefully these new tests will fix that. Epidemiologists say that reasonably reliable local infection rate could be obtained with about a 1% of randomly selected persons. That means they need about 250,000 tests done - HUGE job and it would use up a significant proportion of their new test kits.

The blood samples for the new tests could be randomly selected from the ~1,000,000 blood tests done every day. The test is simple enough to be done by any path nurse in any path lab. 50,000 per day, should be able to do it in a week? :D

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Originally Posted by Lappa

Australia’s pretty good re tests per million compared to most others.

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Yep we are doing well BUT almost all of the 190,000 tests are of OS travellers or persons known to have been in contact with OS travellers.

The new kits are going to be used initially for persons working in health and aged care. Make sense but you teachers can get to the back of the queue.

So what - you think it would be responsible to come out at the beginning of this pandemic and announce to the Australian public “we don’t have enough kits to test people”.

if you have a limited supply of kits do you go out and randomly test people and use up the kits or wait for symptoms or test people who have been in contact?

We can’t have it both ways.

hindsight is a wonderful thing!

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Originally Posted by Beardy

I don’t know anything about the panel of medical experts that are advising our government but assume by some comments here and elsewhere that some think they don’t know what they are talking about?

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I think the panel of experts largely (not bigly) know very much what they are talking about. They don't always fully agree, as we saw on Monday's Q&A, but they are highly educated in their fields. It's the dickhead pollies that don't like it and don't think that we can handle it....because we might get rid of them for telling us the truth. I think any shutdowns and restrictions should be on the authority of the experts in their fields, not people who are paid to bullsh!t us.

Rudd has his flaws - maybe plenty of them, but by crikey he was good in a crisis and he wasn't scared to call it as it was. We were the toast of the world in 2009-11 or so. ("How did they do that?")