breaking covid rules

Mortality rates among key ages have generally been improving about 1% per year on average in most organized countries (caveat, I haven't studied this in detail for all countries). That translates to something along the lines of if 100 out of 100,000 at a given age become deceased in 2020, then in 2021, that figure would be 99, and so on (it's an exponential type function, so not just 98, but rather 0.99*.99, and so on.

Covid has created a pretty big issue with the overall general trend! The excess mortality last year is something we have not seen in my lifetime.

Funding of public and private retirement systems is an interesting topic, because the workforce doesn't really find usefulness for people any longer than it has in previous generations, but we live longer. Disability increases significantly after a given age (in the US, the social security administration makes it pretty easy to get disability after about mid 50s or so, but it's true that actual disability increases quite a bit beyond the amount of abuse that occurs in our disability situation).

I have my doubts that working past a normal retirement age is much different than it was in the past, though under the table work may be less common.

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Originally Posted by GraemeCook

It seems rather incredible, Bob, but Australia's life expectancy has been increasing by about one year every four years since 1900.

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Also, birth rates are down. The young'ns arne't as active as we were, and we were certainly less proficient than our grandparents.

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Graeme

We are getting a little off topic here, but I believe procreation has been modified by a few things. Firstly the older generations had not really worked out how to stop births other than abstinence: This was also coupled (ooops, that was an unfortunate phrase) with high birth and and infant mortality rates. In a way one cancelled out the other much like other animals in nature. Then at some point, contraception became more widely available and adopted. This coincided with our expectations of material possessions increasing. However, we could no longer aspire to our own home, more than one car, holidays every year, various other marvellous luxuries and afford a tribe of children. Children became more expensive to rear and sending them out to work was increasingly was frowned upon. Contemporaneously the infant mortality reduced, largely through improvements in medicine, and we no longer had to rely on many births to support the future of our particular family.

Medicine is arguably a wonderous thing, but the law governing survival of the fittest went out the window and with it, to some degree, balance.

Regards
Paul

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Originally Posted by GraemeCook

It seems rather incredible, Bob, but Australia's life expectancy has been increasing by about one year every four years since 1900.
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Yeah I've seen that but I doubt that is enough to explain what's going on.

Between 2009 and 2019, the proportion of the population aged 65 years and over increased from 13.5% to 15.9%, which is a relative increase of 17%
In contrast, Deaths from Dementia over the same period increased by 67%

Just listening to an Audio book available from teh public library called "Lockdown" (by Peter May), and it reminds me of how much worse things"could have been" or dare I say, "get"
The book was written some 15 years ago and describes a very contagious bird flu pandemic hitting the UK but teh rest of the world locks down early so it's largely confined to the UK.
55% of people get it and there's a 70-80% fatality rate within a couple of days, so there are enough hospital beds.
People in lockdown areas get shot if they venture outside.
Richer parts of London are patrolled by private security.
So far there's no vaccine but there is a limited supply "treatment" called "flukill" that needs to be very taken early in the infection period.
The medication is reserved for law and order and medical personnel but of course those with the necessary $$ can find it as well.
Very interesting

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Originally Posted by BobL

Yeah I've seen that but I doubt that is enough to explain what's going on.

Between 2009 and 2019, the proportion of the population aged 65 years and over increased from 13.5% to 15.9%, which is a relative increase of 17%
In contrast, Deaths from Dementia over the same period increased by 67%

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in 2009, the people turning 65 had been born in 1944, while those born in 1954 were turning 65 in 2019. But, as I understand the demographics, the increase in dementia is among those older than 80, or perhaps 85.
If you were 80 in 2009, you were born in 1929.
If you were 80 in 2019, you were born in 1939.

Perhaps the 67% increase in deaths due to dementia has a lot to do with people's diets during the Great Depression and up to the mid 30s?
I know that the absence of folic acid -- vitamin B12 B9 -- (sourced from fresh vegies) during the Dutch famine of 1944, was later associated with an increase in the incidence of kids born with spina bifida specific health deficiencies.

It might be too late to establish a correlation between dementia, a person's year of birth, their early life diet, and other factors, but if possible it would be an interesting study.
Too many current dementia studies seem to assume no correlation between a person's diet in early life and dementia. If such a correlation could be shown to exist, then current projections surrounding the instance of dementia might need substantial revision.
I understand that around 40 years ago, a correlation may have been established between aluminium pots and pans and dementia.

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Originally Posted by BobL

Just listening to an Audio book available from teh public library called "Lockdown" (by Peter May), and it reminds me of how much worse things"could have been" or dare I say, "get"

The book was written some 15 years ago and describes a very contagious bird flu pandemic hitting the UK but the rest of the world locks down early so it's largely confined to the UK.
55% of people get it and there's a 70-80% fatality rate within a couple of days, so there are enough hospital beds.

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that's a very inefficient virus.
55% of people infected combined with a 70 - 80% fatality rate suggests that the Peter May's "bird flu" virus will die out very quickly.

I don't feel like doing the maths, but May's virus has a lot of similarities with Ebola. Very high death rate among the infected - but give the virus a week or so and there'll be no one left to infect.

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Originally Posted by ian

I know that the absence of folic acid -- vitamin B12 -- (sourced from fresh vegies) during the Dutch famine of 1944, was later associated with an increase in the incidence of kids born with specific health deficiencies.


I understand that around 40 years ago, a correlation may have been established between aluminium pots and pans and dementia.

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Ian, folic acid (also - rarely - called vitamin B9) and B12 are not the same.

Folate is indeed sourced from vegetables, but B12 is sourced from animals. This is why vegans can have real problems in this regard. Mushrooms are a source, but many end up on supplements.

Lack of folate in early pregnancy increases risk of failure of proper development of the spinal cord, causing spina bifida ('neural tube defects'), hence the use of folate supplements.

Both folate and B12 deficiency can give rise to (macrocytic) anaemia - abnormally large red cells. Long term severe B12 lack can cause a neurological abnormality in adults called subacute combined degeneration of the spinal cord.

Finally, like you I remember the business with Al and dementia, but do not recall any followup. I don't recall ever seeing anything in the medical literature or any discussion in the medical world.

Cheers,

Mark

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Originally Posted by markkr

Ian, folic acid (also - rarely - called vitamin B9) and B12 are not the same.

Folate is indeed sourced from vegetables, but B12 is sourced from animals. This is why vegans can have real problems in this regard. Mushrooms are a source, but many end up on supplements.

Lack of folate in early pregnancy increases risk of failure of proper development of the spinal cord, causing spina bifida ('neural tube defects'), hence the use of folate supplements.

Both folate and B12 deficiency can give rise to (macrocytic) anaemia - abnormally large red cells. Long term severe B12 lack can cause a neurological abnormality in adults called subacute combined degeneration of the spinal cord.

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Mark
Thanks for the correction

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Originally Posted by Bushmiller

Graeme

We are getting a little off topic here, but I believe procreation has been modified by a few things. ...

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You are being a little too literal, Paul. Or my joke was too heavily disguised!

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Originally Posted by GraemeCook

You are being a little too literal, Paul. Or my joke was too heavily disguised!

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hehe. My newly-married 25yo Daughter is 13 weeks preggo :)

COVID lockdown baby!

So not far off the mark....

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Originally Posted by GraemeCook

You are being a little too literal, Paul. Or my joke was too heavily disguised!

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Graeme

I actually did detect a little bit of tongue in cheek: At least I think that is the right place for the phrase, but for once my serious self overrode my facetious self.

:-

Regards
Paul

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Originally Posted by woodPixel

hehe. My newly-married 25yo Daughter is 13 weeks preggo :)

COVID lockdown baby!

So not far off the mark....

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Congratulations, Grand Dad!

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Originally Posted by GraemeCook

Congratulations, Grand Dad!

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:whs:

So it was me yesterday! Walking with my wife as we do every day, sometimes twice, waiting to cross the road when one of the cars we are waiting for, the local cops, puts his window down and says "masks guys, where are your masks". I thought we were exercising and therefore weren't required to have them on. Does this mean that I need to run and huff, puff and sweat on everyone to constitute exercising? Like I said before the rules are confusing at best. We can see that most people on our walks obviously think the same as us. :?

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Originally Posted by Picko

So it was me yesterday! Walking with my wife as we do every day, sometimes twice, waiting to cross the road when one of the cars we are waiting for, the local cops, puts his window down and says "masks guys, where are your masks". I thought we were exercising and therefore weren't required to have them on. Does this mean that I need to run and huff, puff and sweat on everyone to constitute exercising? Like I said before the rules are confusing at best. We can see that most people on our walks obviously think the same as us. :?

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It was, at least in the official announcement that I heard (or possibly read), defined specifically as "strenuous" exercise. I did notice when I went in to town on Friday that "wearing yoga pants" seemed in many people's opinion to equate to "strenuous exercise". It also looked like "carrying a water bottle" equated to "eating or drinking" and therefore also granted exemption from wearing a mask. The difficulty arises, I suspect, because the official government sources are never actually seen by most people who simply look at the snippets or edited highlights in the media, or worse still the re-quotes on social media. The officials making the announcements can't include every single detail, because the announcement would be too long (and the media would simply edit it anyway). Subsequently, of course, (and talking generally rather than in regards to Picko's post) many people interpret the rules in the way most favourable to their own circumstance or wish. Hence the interpretation (very early on in lockdown 1.0) that "no church choirs " and "schools remain open" could be combined to mean it was OK for the Sunday school choir to sing in church.......

I have to go to the supermarket today, and there are now at least three confirmed cases in town (one in the last few days), so we'll see if that has had any impact on people's adherence to the rules in this part of the world!

Well there you go, I didn't know about the "strenuous" part, but in my defence, we had one of our daughters with us yesterday and to keep up to her pace, for me, is strenuous. :) Future walks will be masked up and away from the unmasked huffing and puffing runners.