A Debt Jubilee will need to be called.
3 months, perhaps 6.
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A Debt Jubilee will need to be called.
3 months, perhaps 6.
Unfortunately it's not possible to test everyone in Australia as there are simply not enough test kits in the whole world to do that ?Quote:
Originally Posted by Tccp123
The best we can hope for is targeted testing and tracking/monitoring which is what Korea has done with about the same number of tests per head of population.
I see Sydney Westmead hospital has developed a blood test that can pick up if anyone had the virus and survived so if this is applied routinely to anyone having a blood test so medical authorities will get a handle of the numbers that have had mild cases that have had it without anyone knowing about it.
Just watched the PMs latest effort - talk about farting around at the edges of the problem ie beauty salons are now out but hair dressers are in?
If you are only supposed to go outside your house do the shopping, work, bank, pharmacy, medical appointments or helping someone then why the heck are all those other stores and shopping centres left open. Doesn't stack up IMHO.
There are supposed to be 500,000 of the new 15 minute tests landing in Oz this week.
South Korea are on the ball apparently. They have testing stations everywhere. They were quite well prepared because they have had similar viruses previously.
On channel 7 tonight
For those that want to get objective, factual information about the statistics - see this site. I think its the best you will get. A lot of VERY detailed analysis and NO speculation.
(Also very worthwhile looking at the analysis for other data sets - lot of categories to pore over)
Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research - Our World in Data
Of interest:
" ...the data shows South Korea has done many more tests than other countries. That means we can expect that in South Korea the number of confirmed cases – positive tests – is closer to the real number of infected people than it is in other countries.That makes it encouraging to see that the number of daily confirmed cases in South Korea has gone down...."
" ...journalists pretend that the case fatality rate (CFR) gives an answer to the question [How likely is it that a person who is infected by COVID-19 dies because of it]. But this is not the case.
While it is a relevant metric, the CFR does not in fact tell us the risk for an infected person to die..."
"...if it is the case that the number of total cases is higher than the number of confirmed cases, then the ratio between deaths and total cases is smaller than the ratio between deaths and confirmed cases.
This also means that when we compare the CFR between different countries, the differences do not only reflect higher rates of mortality, but also differences in the scale of testing efforts..."
What is important is to try and understand the possibility of exponential growth, while understanding that the initial exponential growth may not be constant over time.
"...The trajectory of China and South Korea shows that the speed at which cases rise is not necessarily constant over time. Both countries saw a rapid initial rise but then implemented severe counter measures ... the trajectory became flatter, the speed of the outbreak has decreased..."
This is all to say that it is INCREDIBLY important to try and understand the detail of the figures being thrown around. Political 10 second sound bites and shock-jock headlines just don't cut it. Its complex.
This is a rapidly changing landscape - the data link you posted says it's for data posted ~20 Mar.Quote:
Originally Posted by RossM
In my post above some more recent data (MARCH 23) shows Spain has now done more tests than Korea, and one province of China, Italy and the US have done almost a many total tests.
[EDIT] ON USA has also overtaken Korea in total number of tests
More important than the total number of tests is the number of tests per capita.
11 countries and 4 major regions have more per capita tests than Korea, and Australia has performed about the same number of test per capita as Korea.
The difference is Korea did many of their tests very early in the epidemic and used extensive tracking and tracing and quarantine more effectively than other countries.
Only 4 countries have tested more than 1% of their population for COVID19 and Korea is not one of them. While the signs from Korea are positive until more general testing is performed we wont know how far COVID has spread in any country.A blood test for COVID19 antibodies that uses a small amount of blood collected for all "routine" blood testing purposes is going to ultimately be useful to determine infection rates especially for non-symptomatic cases. This cannot be performed ON or even in a few weeks but will take many months so it won't help us in the near future.
quoting Scotty from marketing Source ABC text copy of his "pontification"
"... weddings can continue to be conducted where it is just the couple, the celebrant and the witnesses. That's no more than five people and the four square meeting rule has to be observed within the venue in which that is taking place."
so all you prospective brides and grooms -- no holding hands during your vows, the "you may now kiss the bride" can't even be an elbow bump, and forget about any sort of reception. Can't have you breaching the 4 sq.m. rule can we?
But thinking some more about it, even if the bride and groom are cohabitating and the bride is pregnant, why are weddings permitted at all ?
So no more wedding receptions.
and as for funerals ...
"... funerals [are limited] to no more than 10 persons observing the rules around the four square metre rule and the social-distancing practices."
so no condolence hugs or even elbow bumps are allowed -- you would be breaching the 4 sq.m. rule if you did.
I understand how important "saying a final good-bye" is to the grieving process, but to limit the good-byes to no more than 10 persons (several of whom will be disinterested employees of the funeral director) and it becomes the same situation as a wedding -- why bother ?
Overall it would IMO be better to delay the funeral till after the pandemic peak is well past.
And With any luck some of the older participants will have passed away so overall risk will be reduced.Quote:
Originally Posted by ian
If you are going to use whiskey it has to be >60% or 120 proof to work.
And if the numbers go where it seems likely, where would the bodies be stored?Quote:
Originally Posted by ian
To put this thing into perspective (and to get a feeling for how many dead bodies are disposed of every year) have a look at the table showing causes of death in Australia in 2018 on this site:
3303.0 - Causes of Death, Australia, 2018
Interesting significant drop in heart disease as a leading cause of death over 10 years, also slow drops is death rates from strokes and lung cancer.
Accompanying this is the rise of Dementia as a cause of death which looks like it is going to overtake heart disease some time next year.
BTW significant differences between males and females - Dementia has already overtaken heart disease for females. Lung cancer still higher for males than dementia.
Attachment 470436
Not unexpected I would think. As they take away one cause of death the next one in the table will jump up to take its place till it's eradicated.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
Another interesting statistic I ran across this morning is that the normal death rate in Italy is 10.7/1000
Maybe not as far away as we thinkQuote:
Originally Posted by BobL
COVID-19: Could we test everyone? - The Signal - ABC Radio
Ill listen to this this arvo.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
It may be of interest to some here (of the curious minds) that BioHacking is A Thing.
They use techniques like CRISPR to brew up new marvels.
They remind me of when I was young and the internet was unknown - a wild and exciting frontier!
Being immerse, cutting edge, highly transparent, sharing everything and "Open Sourcing" everything is a key driver behind their enthusiasm..... here is a bit of an article on ABC today: Meet the amateur 'biohackers' making their own experimental COVID-19 test kits - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if this loose coalition of haphazard nutters actually get to the goal first.
oh they (basically copied fellow bio hackers in the US) have done it. What is now needed is approval to use and investors to bulk produce. Of course big pharma will fight them and people will die needlessly.Quote:
Originally Posted by woodPixel
Just back on topic for a brief moment. If anyone's thinking about spending serious money on tools or other items, better do it now at existing list prices. Be prepared for a 20% hit from our tanking exchange rate.
I'm now in the shed for the duration with the nearest neighbour 800 metres away.
mick :)
OTOH the drop in demand from more people out of work might balance that to some extent and help reduce prices. I don’t know about everyone else but my email box is filling with notices of deals and sales.
On ice like there planing in the UkQuote:
Originally Posted by FenceFurniture
Literally on a Ice Ring
I know that’s not what we would like too hear.
Cheers Matt
There are some seriously deep disruptions barrelling down the pipe with bonds, repos, currency and commodity contangos... and various fiscal stimuli.... Jesus H Christ, the positions in/on derivatives are simply beyond belief (!!!!!!). Leverage, OMG, the numbers are insane. I, personally, think that we are about to see some seriously huge and incredibly violent movements in currency valuations.... the USA is about to print to oblivion.... the old AUD dollerydoo might yet spike directly upward like a meteorite.Quote:
Originally Posted by Glider
The markets are nuts. The trades are nuts. Everything is a COMPLETE shitshow.
BUT, you are right, we need tools :) I'm thinking of buying a plane with any free loot :) :)
You lucky bastard :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Glider
I doubt there will be any funerals of victims. They'll all be cremated ASAP.Quote:
Originally Posted by FenceFurniture
I’m pretty sure the ice rink morgue is in Spain.
Email this morning from “the boss” to say TAFE is pausing classes for two weeks so we can set up to go mostly online.
Happens from next Monday. Online will start up after the Easter Holidays so we have two weeks to get it up and running.
I’m pretty sure the ice rink morgue is in Spain.
Email this morning from “the boss” to say TAFE is pausing classes for two weeks so we can set up to go mostly online.
Happens from next Monday. Online will start up after the Easter Holidays so we have two weeks to get it up and running.
Let's hope not. That would be devastating.Quote:
Originally Posted by woodPixel
A bit of light relief. OK its not for everyone
https://youtu.be/VGMQO5frsSk
Can't help thinking that even this would have more impact than any add the Govt has put out so far..
It occurred to me after a yarn yesterday with a neighbouring farmer than social distancing is normal practice for people on the land. We were at least 2.5 metres apart as usual. It's different in town much less Sydney.
mick :)
- - - Updated - -
Finally, the massive efforts of Italy may be starting to pay off. The number of new cases of COVID-19 has been trending down for the last three days, as highlighted by the red arrow.
Another two days of similar trending and it will be statistically significant.
Attachment 470487
This is not to say that there will not be a lot more pain. Italy still has over 57,000 active cases of which 3,500 are serious or critical. There will be more deaths, but they are probably on the up-slope.
[Usual qualifier as I do not know reliability of source.]
My lads latest 3D printed face shield head band and easily removable/replaceable clear plastic file divider spatter shield.
Attachment 470488
I know this should be in a joke post but here is is anyway.
Maybe this would work in Bondi...https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...de40d5b534.jpg
Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
In the US it would just be an excuse for all the gun nutters to kick off?Quote:
Originally Posted by taz01
Putting aside the direct health risks of this virus, the thing that both worries me the most and angers me the most, is that the economic impact and the inequitable outcomes that it will drive are not due to the virus at all but the last 40 years of irresponsible monetary, fiscal and overall government policies.
The fragility of our entire system, brought about by the extreme leverage taken by corporations, smaller businesses and individuals (insane mortgage) debt) that was facilitated through centrally manipulated suppression of interest rates and loose government policies as well as prior bail-outs, is why we will now see such devastation and annihilation of the world as we know it.
We haven't even started proper lock-downs and people, individuals and businesses, are screaming for the government to help them, as if the government can magically create real wealth. I've always planned for at least a couple of months without work and never extended myself financially beyond the ability to support myself and family - to my detriment in terms of investment returns / asset bubble gains. I'm not sure if people understand that the people support the government not the other way around. The government can only provide something to someone if they take it from someone else. This will lead to grossly unfair outcomes, with some responsible people (and future generations of taxpayers) footing the bill to cover many people and businesses that lived large and consumed beyond their means while times were good, rather than saving for, and investing in, the future. Shame on those people who are now sticking their hands out. Of course we must help them, I would never walk by and let a neighbor starve, but it doesn't make it fair or equitable.
Not only that, but I fear that the entire system is going to break-down given how much money the USA and even our central bank is creating and how badly they are distorting the financial markets. I fear that the fall-out from this catastrophe will be worse than any direct effects of the actual virus itself.
Anyway, let's see. In any event as a best case I predict massive inflation in basic goods, a huge wealth transfer from the middle-class and any savers as well as future generation(s) and far more socialist policies and central control by governments going forward.
We should be supporting each other and behaving responsibly with regard to saving, consumption and investment, but instead we go the other way and think that the government will be our parents and look after us.
Cheers comrades,
Dom
A little well placed humour never goes amiss.Quote:
Originally Posted by taz01
Attachment 470490
Had to take one of the dogs (Willow) to vet about her eye. Not permitted to wait in Vet waiting rooms, have to wait outside or in car with AC running as it was 34ºC in the shade and call the Vet when we arrive. When they are ready we had to bring Willow to door and they took her in. Then when ready to release the vet calls us to go back to the door to pick up. All very sensible really.
Turns out Willow has something stuck in her eye and will have to have a general anaesthetic to have it removed. More bloody $$$$.
But Willow's fine, and that is what's important. All good.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobL
But, seriously, Bob, with all the bars, restaurants and massage parlours closed, what else could you spend your $$$$'s on?
Tools ? But SWMBO’s horse had a vet visit yesterday for orthotic shoes as it’s feet have literally gone pear shaped!
Worldometer has just updated its graph on new cases in Italy by adding yesterday's new cases. The escallation has not resumed; good news so far.
Attachment 470491
The hope must, of course, be that the graph for Italy follows the general shape of the graph for China. It has had an exponential growth shape like China; let us hope that it now follows a comparable decay curve. My guestimate is that Italy is now poised near the apex of their curve, comparable to the position indicated by the red arrow on China's curve.
Attachment 470493
[Source: World Health Organisation: Report of the China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019.]
Looks positive but the Italian Authorities are still concerned the general population will slacken off their vigilance as they will need to keep this up for some time. This is the time that's the hardest to cope with as coming off the brake too early could easily result in a rebound. The will also be a subsequent waves to contend with.Quote:
Originally Posted by GraemeCook
The Italians imposed a full lock down in their most affected regions some 4 weeks ago when they about 1/4 of the cases and the same number of deaths Australia has now. The Italian data suggests it takes 4 weeks to see a significant change in the curve so we should have been at full lock down at least one week ago.
It's interesting to speculate/compare the Chinese with Italian situations as the Regional populations are about the same size.
- Chinese experience was relatively blind, Italians had some hindsight evidence of that might happen from Chinese
- Chinese population are (or are made) more compliant, Italians will cut more corners
- Chinese acted faster and more decisively than Italian? ie hard lockdown, forceable quarantine, rapidly put up large quarantine hotels/jails
- Italians probably had superior medical facilities and staff but simply not enough to cope with the larger numbers of ICU cases.
There was an infectious diseases person on the ABC last night said that even very poor African countries were able to beat Ebola with minimal tech by rapid quarantining of travellers and using social distancing and hygiene. The general population quickly realised they had no expensive tech fix available and (unlike some local ning-nongs who are not complying with basic quarantining) took successful ownership of the other factors seriously and immediately. For next time we will need to find a much more efficient way of handling travellers returning or moving en masse thru borders. Given what eventually has happened the financial investment would seem like peanuts.
With the current movement restrictions and panic buying still leaving empty shelves, this thread may be of some help to some folk:
How to make your vege last MUCH longer in th fridge