Future of the Australian Electricity Market

I am showing this following snap shot to demonstrate that we are not yet there in terms of renewable self sufficiency. Yesterday in South Australia, which is probably the closest to self sufficiency out of all the Australian states, there were some very high prices on the wholesale market. This was one of the most extreme moments, which did only last for a few minutes:

Attachment 505040

I don't know the full details of what caused this except that SA relies heavily on the two interconnectors and one of them was (and is today also) out of service. That may have combined with something else to have caused a shortage of supply. To put things into perspective, compare that price of $15,100 to the average price in QLD for the day of $69. I don't know what the average worked out at for SA: I am guessing a lot more than $69.

Regards
Paul

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Originally Posted by Chris Parks

That is the downfall of the Nissan Leaf as it does not have active cooling in the battery packs.

I see no one has offered an explanation as to why an electric car has to be charged every day for the average commute, I guess the simple answer is it doesn't have to be recharged every night/day and the grid will not be supplying to an electric car every time it is used and thus won't implode at 7pm every night.

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True, most electric vehicles won't need to be recharged every time they are used, so the grid won't implode at 7 or 8PM every night.

Now, while I know of no way to obtain reliable values for the distance the average, or mode, or median vehicle is driven each day of the week, in the back of my mind I have the value of 15km as the average distance driven each weekday. If that value is still current, then the typical car is driven an average of 88 km on each of Saturday and Sunday. Which sort of fits with how my own personal vehicle was used. Monday to Friday the car was used to take the kid to and from school and do some shopping (say 10 km per day). On weekends, the car travelled much further -- to take the kid to and from sport on Saturday (say 30 to 50 km) and to visit the folks on Sunday (a round trip of either 70 km or 240 km).

So, if I had owned a BMW i3 (range 160 km), the weekday commute would be a doddle, perhaps requiring a trickle charge mid-week. However, depending on which of the grandparents I was visiting over the weekend, I would be more than a bit worried about hitting the road Friday night or Saturday morning without a full battery. In particular, to visit the grandparents in Bowral, I would need to commence both the outbound and return journeys with an almost full battery. A return journey on a single charge was out of the question.

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Originally Posted by Bushmiller

My understanding is that one of the limitations of Lithium Ion batteries is their propensity for catching fire if they are charged too rapidly. I also believe that this is particularly pertinent during the last stage of charging and is why many of the charging rates quoted go to only 80%. The last part has to be performed more gently: You don't want to melt the Tesla.

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That is also my understanding -- charging a Li-ion battery to 80% is pretty straight forward. The last 20% needs to be more akin to a trickle charge, but most (all?) electric vehicles are fitted with sensors that reduce the charge rate as the battery's charge state gets beyond about 80%. Somewhere I've seen advice that the most "efficient" way to operate a Tesla is to charge the battery to no more than 80% capacity. Apparently, charging to 80% is the sweet spot between vehicle range and charging time. It takes as long or longer to charge the final 20% of battery capacity as it does to get to 80%.

But the "good news" is that your Tesla is unlikely to melt.

When New Orleans went under water Tesla removed all limitations on charging to ensure 100% and afterwards put the limit back on via over the air updates.

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Originally Posted by Bushmiller

I don't know the full details of what caused this except that SA relies heavily on the two interconnectors and one of them was (and is today also) out of service. That may have combined with something else to have caused a shortage of supply. To put things into perspective, compare that price of $15,100 to the average price in QLD for the day of $69. I don't know what the average worked out at for SA: I am guessing a lot more than $69.

Regards
Paul

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I did a little digging. The twenty four hour average was $308 or about four and a half times the average for Queensland for the same period.

Regards
Paul

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bushmiller

I am showing this following snap shot to demonstrate that we are not yet there in terms of renewable self sufficiency. Yesterday in South Australia, which is probably the closest to self sufficiency out of all the Australian states, there were some very high prices on the wholesale market. This was one of the most extreme moments, which did only last for a few minutes:

Attachment 505040

I don't know the full details of what caused this except that SA relies heavily on the two interconnectors and one of them was (and is today also) out of service. That may have combined with something else to have caused a shortage of supply. To put things into perspective, compare that price of $15,100 to the average price in QLD for the day of $69. I don't know what the average worked out at for SA: I am guessing a lot more than $69.

Regards
Paul

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no wonder everyone wants to shove a battery in S.A

put a 250MW battery in that runs for 2 hours.
$300 MWh
250mw x $300 x 2 hours

there's a quick $150,000 earnings

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bushmiller

I am showing this following snap shot to demonstrate that we are not yet there in terms of renewable self sufficiency. Yesterday [December 13?] in South Australia, which is probably the closest to self sufficiency out of all the Australian states, there were some very high prices on the wholesale market. This was one of the most extreme moments, which did only last for a few minutes:

Attachment 505040

I don't know the full details of what caused this except that SA relies heavily on the two interconnectors and one of them was (and is today also) out of service. That may have combined with something else to have caused a shortage of supply. To put things into perspective, compare that price of $15,100 to the average price in QLD for the day of $69. I don't know what the average worked out at for SA: I am guessing a lot more than $69.

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I suspect I know what caused the price spike at 11:10 AM on December 13 (is that Eastern Australian Standard or daylight time?)

At Adelaide Airport for Sunday December 13th Hours of sunshine is showing as less than 30% of what they were on each of the preceding three days (Thurs, Fri, Sat). So at a good guess, Adelaide's roof top solar was not contributing nearly enough juice to keep the air cons running. Plus one of the two interconnectors from Victoria (or is one from NSW?) was down.

Bet there was a bit of additional CO2 emitted when the gas units responded to the >$15,000 price spike.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Chris Parks

When New Orleans went under water Tesla removed all limitations on charging to ensure 100% and afterwards put the limit back on via over the air updates.

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I think that has something to do with Teslas all coming with a 75kW battery but standard/;per priced ones are limited to 60 or 65kW. To get the other 15kW you have to fork up an extra couple of grand. The smart drive software upgrade costs extra as does the hands free driving capability (not legal here in Oz). Its the same with the 0-60 time - faster costs more even on the same power train. Other EV companies are doing similar things. Its like buying a computer and software but if you want the software extensions you have to pay more! Or the recent ISP sales technique of offering free higher speed broadband for a trial period and then cutting back the speed.

BTW several Tesla owners hacked the software to get the extra speed and battery power, BUT that loophole was locked out in the next software upgrade.

Intel announced today that future CPUs will do the same.

Pay to unlock "features" on the device YOU own.

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Originally Posted by woodPixel

Intel announced today that future CPUs will do the same.

Pay to unlock "features" on the device YOU own.

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This sort of thing has been going on for years without anyone realising it. When cars became more digitally controlled features such as cruise control could be added via installation of the controls for it on the steering column and the dealer then turned it on. The owner never realised that the car had it all the time and a switch was all that was needed, literally 10 minutes work.\

Edit: To ad to this there is a whole industry based around VW and BMW cars that allows owners to enable features that they did not pay for when they bought the cars because not every feature in the cars is sold in every country but is in the car and not activated. I suppose someone could put forward an argument for enabling a feature in this way as theft, VW obviously think it is because they have recently taken action to stop coding as it is called from happening.

Big computers have had similar features for 20 years or more.
Base price for base performance, pay for an upgrade, get the extra capacity switched on.
There was one supplier at least (ibm maybe), you could actually switch on yourself temporarily at no charge, but after a certain time or number, it became permanent and the bill arrived.

The announcement of a gas fired station (660MW) at Kurri is interesting.

Hunter Power Project - Snowy Hydro

There are at least three types of gas fired power station. The first employs a conventional boiler but the fuel source is gas instead of coal. The second two utilise gas turbines. The best option of these is the so-called HRSG (Heat Recovery Steam Generator) where the exhaust gases of the turbine are fed into a boiler to produce low (usually) pressure steam that powers a conventional turbine/generator. In effect the heat from the waste gases is utilised thus making the unit much more efficient.

The last type is the OCGT (Open Cycle Gas Turbine) which is the least efficient model. It is this last type of installation that is going in to the Kurri plant, if it happens. Apparently the government is contributing $600,000 to the project in conjunction with "stakeholders."

NSW approves Morrison government’s $600m Kurri Kurri gas-fired power plant | Fossil fuels | The Guardian

I took this quote in particular as an example of a truth disguising an untruth.

"The federal energy minister, Angus Taylor, said the approval was an “important next step” for the project which aimed “to keep prices low and the lights on while creating jobs in the Hunter region”.

Yes, some jobs would definitely be created during construction ( but very few once operational. Those machines can usually be started from your mobile phone or from a remote location thousands of kilometres away) and it may keep the lights on during periods of high demand, but keeping energy prices low using the most expensive, commercial method of producing electricity known to man? Unlikely.

It may be that the announcement is purely political in a lead up to the federal election (Kurri Kurri is in the seat of Patterson, which while Labour held , had a swing to the Liberals in 2019). As to viability I can't see anything that runs for 2% of the year being a viable proposition.

For a moment there was a glimmer of hope in that it led me to believe the machines were designed to run on hydrogen at some point in the future, presumably when renewable power can generate enough excess power to produce hydrogen, but when I read on it would initially be a 10% H2 capability with maybe 30% at a later date.

Regards
Paul

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bushmiller

there were some very high prices on the wholesale market. This was one of the most extreme moments, which did only last for a few minutes:

Attachment 505040

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bushmiller

The announcement of a gas fired station (660MW) at Kurri is interesting.

Hunter Power Project - Snowy Hydro

There are at least three types of gas fired power station. The first employs a conventional boiler but the fuel source is gas instead of coal. The second two utilise gas turbines. The best option of these is the so-called HRSG (Heat Recovery Steam Generator) where the exhaust gases of the turbine are fed into a boiler to produce low (usually) pressure steam that powers a conventional turbine/generator. In effect the heat from the waste gases is utilised thus making the unit much more efficient.

The last type is the OCGT (Open Cycle Gas Turbine) which is the least efficient model. It is this last type of installation that is going in to the Kurri plant, if it happens. Apparently the government is contributing $600,000 to the project in conjunction with "stakeholders."

NSW approves Morrison government’s $600m Kurri Kurri gas-fired power plant | Fossil fuels | The Guardian

I took this quote in particular as an example of a truth disguising an untruth.

"The federal energy minister, Angus Taylor, said the approval was an “important next step” for the project which aimed “to keep prices low and the lights on while creating jobs in the Hunter region”.

It may be that the announcement is purely political in a lead up to the federal election (Kurri Kurri is in the seat of Patterson, which while Labour held , had a swing to the Liberals in 2019). As to viability I can't see anything that runs for 2% of the year being a viable proposition.

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Paul
Please correct me if I am missing something, but the Eastern states' electricity market operates in 10 minute increments and wholesale supply prices reflect these pricing increments.
If that is the case, 2% of a year contains 1051 pricing "units". For ease of calculation call that 1000 pricing "units".
In your other post (quoted above), prices in SA peaked at $15,100 per MW.
If I can do the sums, 600 MW x $15,100 per MW x 1000 pricing units = $9 Billion per annum.

Assuming a 15% interest rate, the Capital cost of $600 M = $90 Million per year in interest.
Then assume the wholesale gas cost of the gas required to operate the plant is around $1 Billion per year, the potential profit from operating the Kurri Kurri gas plant for just 2% of the year is around $8 Billion.

Now, while I'll readily acknowledge that $15,000 per MW was a momentary peak price in SA, for the $600 million Kurri Kurri gas plant to start loosing money, the 10 minute per MW wholesale electricity price in NSW would need to be below about $1,100.

You will have a better idea than me, but I'm sure the 10 minute peak per MW price for NSW has been above $1000 for much more than 2% of the year.


Comments?

Im afraid you have been caught out by the Aussie habit of abbreviating everything.
Pricing is per MWh, and the pricing interval is not relevant. (and its 5m intervals, not 10).
So 1MW delivered for an hour results in $15000. (but in fact, the peak probably won't last an hour, so the average could be significantly less.) But if it was generating for 2% of the year, say 2.5 hours per week, 52 weeks, income would be around $2Mx600 or $1200M per year with gas costs around $1.8M
But interest is around $1000 per MWh produced, for that 2%. And the average price is more like $70/MWh
And interest continues even if you aren't generating.

If that peak rate does hold for that length of time, it would do ok, but i'd call that a high risk investment.

Ian

A couple of issues there and it may well be my fault for the first issue: That price, which was seen in SA, only happens rarely and my point was it was during the day. I don't know how often, but if made a wild guess I might say that each state could see that figure or at least five figures up to five times per year, but sometimes not even once in a year! I just happened to look up at the trading screen at that particular moment (we don't have alarm bells, klaxons and cheerleader squads gyrating when such prices occur) and thought it worth mentioning particularly when compared to the other states. There will be a price point at which a gas turbine power station will kick in. I don't know what that point is. When I joined the permanent staff at Millmerran back in 2004 another operator joined us from Oakey power station, which has two open cycle GTs. Back then he said the kick in price was $300 and the previous year they had run only twice! I believe they may have ben paid some "retainer" to be available.

Of course that was seventeen years ago and the dynamics have changed dramatically. In the current climate high wholesale prices are now seen in the evening and through the night, which is the complete opposite to the scenario of years gone by thanks to solar.

The second problem is that while the pricing used to be in half hour segments, it has now gone to five minute segments, which would effectively halve your figures. A typical evening price is about $200/Mwhr. I don't think even a bump to $1000/MWhr a couple of times a week for five minutes would pay the bills, but I certainly have not done any sums as it is too much of an unknown quantity. However, I have to say that if I was an investor I would not be putting any money into a project that had such a limited life span.

One other issue is that the "investors" seem a little bit of a secret and whoever they are were apparently kept in the dark over the approval and government funding. I think a little more information needs to be shared before we get overexcited. As I hinted, it could be an election gambit.

Regards
Paul