Future of the Australian Electricity Market

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Originally Posted by Bushmiller

Something that I don't think has been addressed is that in ten to twenty years (my conjecture on timelines and pure guesswork) there will be a whole heap of fossil fuelled cars trucks and agricultural/industrial equipment. I am supposing that they will in fact be phased out to some extent due to natural attrition. Does this mean that at some point owners of private vehicles and commercial operators will have to completely replace their fossil fuelled combustion vehicles with EVs? Or will they be able to convert their old vehicles to H2 fuel (combustion not fuel cell)? For the owners who replace their vehicle on a regular basis, this won't be a problem, particularly as the cost of EVs reduces with the combination of technology and sheer volumes, but for those that have older vehicles or only buy second hand, what will be their options?

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From last week:

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

I don't think that batteries will be the total solution for transport because batteries of any kind are probably going to be heavy and/or bulky, and therefore somewhat self defeating. Also, in the period that we still have fossil fool vehicles (20 years until they have no resale value at all?? Less than 20??) there will be an increasing number of EVs of course, but also increasing tech to go with them. So presumably battery demand will increase while hydrogen is being sorted out, and then decrease. I suppose it's very likely that we might have a series of different hybrid vehicles for a while, to counteract vehicle redundancy. What I mean by that is engines that can run, or be easily adapted to run, on different fuels as they come into play. Similar to Gas & Petrol engines of the last 40(?) years. The last thing someone wants to do is to buy a vehicle that is going to be useless and therefore valueless 5 years after purchase.

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It is inevitable is that during the run down of ICE vehicles no matter what fuel is used there will come a time when they can't be repaired either because the knowledge is not there on the part of the service personnel or simply because the industry refuses to work on them. Even now it is becoming obvious that the first generation of cars with a lot of electronics can't be easily fixed because the knowledge has left the industry or the diagnostic equipment is not available. The repair industry as we know it will be destroyed because the small workshop won't be able to work on the new cars being manufactured and the amount of work or servicing required simply disappears. Jay Leno who has a very popular YouTube channel recently said that his seven year old Tesla has not been serviced apart from expendable items such as tyres for the whole time he has owned it and that includes the brake pads which have never required replacement either. The ownership of a BEV reduces costs hugely which is a big plus but it costs a lot of money to buy one.

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Originally Posted by Chris Parks

Jay Leno ..... and that includes the brake pads which have never required replacement either.

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When you own 160 vehicles (or something) you can only drive each one so far!

As ICE vehicles are phased out the fuel will become considerably more expensive too, I would imagine, as they make less and less each year.

https://www.woodworkforums.com/image...quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Bushmiller https://www.woodworkforums.com/image...post-right.png
Something that I don't think has been addressed is that in ten to twenty years (my conjecture on timelines and pure guesswork) there will be a whole heap of fossil fuelled cars trucks and agricultural/industrial equipment. I am supposing that they will in fact be phased out to some extent due to natural attrition. Does this mean that at some point owners of private vehicles and commercial operators will have to completely replace their fossil fuelled combustion vehicles with EVs? Or will they be able to convert their old vehicles to H2 fuel (combustion not fuel cell)? For the owners who replace their vehicle on a regular basis, this won't be a problem, particularly as the cost of EVs reduces with the combination of technology and sheer volumes, but for those that have older vehicles or only buy second hand, what will be their options?

From last week:

https://www.woodworkforums.com/image...quote_icon.png Originally Posted by FenceFurniture https://www.woodworkforums.com/image...post-right.png
I don't think that batteries will be the total solution for transport because batteries of any kind are probably going to be heavy and/or bulky, and therefore somewhat self defeating. Also, in the period that we still have fossil fool vehicles (20 years until they have no resale value at all?? Less than 20??) there will be an increasing number of EVs of course, but also increasing tech to go with them. So presumably battery demand will increase while hydrogen is being sorted out, and then decrease. I suppose it's very likely that we might have a series of different hybrid vehicles for a while, to counteract vehicle redundancy. What I mean by that is engines that can run, or be easily adapted to run, on different fuels as they come into play. Similar to Gas & Petrol engines of the last 40(?) years. The last thing someone wants to do is to buy a vehicle that is going to be useless and therefore valueless 5 years after purchase.

Regards, FenceFurniture

Brett

It appears we are on the same page even though I had missed your page (not sure how I did that)!

:-

Regards
Paul

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

... I don't think that batteries will be the total solution for transport because batteries of any kind are probably going to be heavy and/or bulky, and therefore somewhat self defeating. ...

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Few areas are as weight conscious as aviation, and Airbus have been experimenting with battery powered aircraft - imagine the engineering expertise that they can access:
Electric flight | Airbus

They observe that one kilogram of avgas contains the energy equivalent of 15-20 kgs of batteries at the current state of the art.

That weight of batteries effectively curtails electric planes at present. Airbus has adopted a monitoring role, waiting for the next development in battery technology.

One of the interesting developments from their research is that aircraft are apparently extremely inefficient on the ground when taxiing. On their electric aircraft they just added an electric motor to the front wheel; this resulted in significant fuel savings. This development is now being evaluated for application in large aircraft.

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

When you own 160 vehicles (or something) you can only drive each one so far!

As ICE vehicles are phased out the fuel will become considerably more expensive too, I would imagine, as they make less and less each year.

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The Tesla is his daily drive and he travels a lot but I get your point.

Graeme

It's good to see a company looking to the future and it seems they have been doing that for at least 12 years. A few other companies, and governments, could take inspiration from that.

Regards
Paul

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Originally Posted by BushMiller

... For the owners who replace their vehicle on a regular basis, this won't be a problem, particularly as the cost of EVs reduces with the combination of technology and sheer volumes, but for those that have older vehicles or only buy second hand, what will be their options? ...

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As an economist, I have been trying to consider an even broader question. What will be the impact of electrical vehicles on the second hand market? The answer is: "I haven't a clue."

With ICE cars many businesses and individuals change their cars on a predetermined schedule - 2 years or 40,000 kilometres is a common metric, other 5 years and so on, some on accumulated repair/maintenance costs, others on a whim. What about electrics?

Most current electric cars have a warrantee of 7 to 10 years on the battery. Then what? How many batteries last much more than 10 years? What is the replacement cost of a full set of batteries for an electric car? I have tried to find out and have failed - its a secret - there is massive debate on the web on this point. But is it relevant? the cost of Li-ion batteries has dropped 80% in the last 10 years - what will the price be in 10 years time? Will it be higher or lower than the value of a 10 year old vehicle? Will the life span of a vehicle be one set of batteries? Or will one replace technologically redundant batteries with future technology?

"I haven't a clue."

No, I've no clue either Graeme. I suspect that on one hand they won't depreciate as much as ICE cars due to no gearbox, simpler engine, less parts in general to wear out, but on the other hand, in the first ten years of "serious" takeup of EVs, there will be so many new developments that they will probably depreciate faster than ICE cars. Although I suppose those new developments will be largely in batteries rather than drivetrain. One hopes that a used up set of batteries will be easily interchanged with whatever the new tech of the time is. I can see battery tech improvements going on for many decades yet.

I think cars are going to go the same way as planes - there will be a transition.

Think about Sydney cars during peak hour, creeping along all burning fuel. Its madness. A combo-car with a battery and an electric motor will allow all that noise and pollution to be gone. The electric bits can putter around, the petrol for the big trips (or when the juice runs out).

I drove today and was behind an hybrid/electric Toyota corolla (?), it pulled an impressive clip. I've a 6L HSV that thumps out 255kw at the wheels and that Corolla accelerated like the wind. Nice!

There are many new shops converting big old dino-juice guzzlers like mine to electric. Its turning into a big thing. Rip out the engine, drivetrain and the car is half the weight. The battery packs and motors bolt in, plus some wiring tomfoolery. I personally think this will be HUGE. Old cars, which have more style, will become highly sought after.... here is an example: Revolt Systems

This BEAST puts out 450kw and 800 NM of torque. .... Far. Out.!

Attachment 511172
It won't take long for businesses to realise the potential of after-market change overs.

I was looking online for a car for the son... learning to drive and hates the Nissan Pulsar I acquired for him (its a tidy car, but has no PIZZAZ!).... now I saw a very decent BMW and an excellent Mercedes, both elegant, but lots of Km's, but only $6-7k. Now, if one were to rip out all the guts and put in electrics, you'd have a nice modern looking car with modern safety plus refreshed guts. Nice! :)

As a bit of dystopian thought - insurance companies could also enforce "learner limits" or "P Plate limits" on power output easily enough too. Just flick a switch. Creeps my skin thinking like this, but I can guarantee they are!

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Originally Posted by GraemeCook

Most current electric cars have a warrantee of 7 to 10 years on the battery. Then what? How many batteries last much more than 10 years? What is the replacement cost of a full set of batteries for an electric car? I have tried to find out and have failed - its a secret - there is massive debate on the web on this point. But is it relevant? the cost of Li-ion batteries has dropped 80% in the last 10 years - what will the price be in 10 years time? Will it be higher or lower than the value of a 10 year old vehicle? Will the life span of a vehicle be one set of batteries? Or will one replace technologically redundant batteries with future technology?

"I haven't a clue."

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Ah! I know!

A friend of mine bought an original Toyota PRIUS second hand. It was a classic "little old lady car" that didn't have a scratch.... $1500

FAR OUT!

Problem was the battery was dead as a doornail and throwing up a thousand warning lights. A real Xmas tree! She was quoted a fortune to "fix it".

Bugger that! Told him to buy it. We ordered a battery re-pack from the USA ($1300, plus a swap-fee that is refundable) and it took me only the day to swap it out... it wasn't trivial, but compared to a regular engine swap its a diddly, with no grease! There must have been 30,000 bolts..... it is ABSOLUTELY something a thinking person can do (NOT a "consumer")

Swapped it out, flipped the Mega Switch of Death and just like Frankensteins Monster... its aaaallllivvvveee!

The pack had to be ordered in as there wasn't an AU supplier. That will change.


Of a note, I also checked the brake pads and rotors. They still looked new. Crazy!

Batteries are an unknown at this point in time but there is an aha! point about car batteries generally not known and that is the manufacturers are reserving part of the battery from every day use and as the used part starts to degrade they release a bit more of the reserved part to keep up the efficiency and range. As for hybrids they won't happen in large numbers because who wants to have the complication of ICE with all its potential problems and add another layer on top of it. They will fade out quickly as the Zero Emission date has to be allowed for in the design cycle which is around 3 to 5 years and that date is generally 2030. Approaching that date all the old ICE vehicles will not be replaced so the change over period will start in earnest well before 2030. Of course none of this applies to Australia you say but if ICE cars aren't made then we have to buy what is made but we aren't stuck to a hard date just yet. It will be interesting to see what happens if we have a change of Government at the upcoming elections as the Labour side of politics has shown more interest in electric cars and that could change things. Strangely it does not seem to be a big agenda item this time round compared to last time.

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Originally Posted by woodPixel

Ah! I know!

A friend of mine bought an original Toyota PRIUS second hand. It was a classic "little old lady car" that didn't have a scratch.... $1500

FAR OUT!

Problem was the battery was dead as a doornail and throwing up a thousand warning lights. A real Xmas tree! She was quoted a fortune to "fix it".

Bugger that! Told him to buy it. We ordered a battery re-pack from the USA ($1300, plus a swap-fee that is refundable) and it took me only the day to swap it out... it wasn't trivial, but compared to a regular engine swap its a diddly, with no grease! There must have been 30,000 bolts..... it is ABSOLUTELY something a thinking person can do (NOT a "consumer")

Swapped it out, flipped the Mega Switch of Death and just like Frankensteins Monster... its aaaallllivvvveee!

The pack had to be ordered in as there wasn't an AU supplier. That will change.


Of a note, I also checked the brake pads and rotors. They still looked new. Crazy!

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So buy Prius with stuffed battery, fix Prius and flip it = profit!

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Originally Posted by Chris Parks

So buy Prius with stuffed battery, fix Prius and flip it = profit!

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I suspect there will be a fair bit of this.

I did it after having watched a few youtubes and finding a service manual on b-ok.org .... so it wasn't just an attack-with-spanners thing. I was weary of the potential for mayhem, but had to admit, there was very little to it. All the electrics are shielded and the thing doesn't go live until two massive throw-levers are pushed down.

There was a disconcerting amount of plastic however. But it was all ABS, so there's recycling in mind.

One thing I did note was there is a fan to the side of it. Just like ones fridge. Its a PITA to get to and Id imagine that $5 fan must be the cause of many lights, overheats, premature dead batteries and slow charges. I saw it as an obvious design fault. At minimum there should have been a basic filter for it. Oh well, Im sure they fixed that in later models! :)

Meanwhile, the urgency increases.

Attachment 511211

I was suspicious of FF's graph as it looks too regular to be true, so I went back to the source.
Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases

It checks out. Thanks FF.

Brett

That graph on CO2 concentration is "slightly" disturbing. That comment is of course tongue in cheek. The concentrations in fact have risen slightly in the last couple of decades while not being completely exponential. It is disturbing because this is the period that the world at large has begun to recognise climate change as a reality, has begun to take measures to check CO2 and continues to tolerate denialists. I guess the detractors would say, "See, it hasn't made any difference," but I believe the reality is that we have to do more, do it quickly (as far as putting strategies in place, because there is no quick fix) and stop poking fun at small island nations that potentially will go under water.

Regards
Paul

Topical because we have been talking H2 and storage, but don't get overly excited because it is only at the discussion level.

WA to look at hydrogen power target (msn.com)

Regards
Paul

another solution for long term storage is available: Rechargeable Molten Salt Battery Freezes Energy in Place for Long-Term Storage - Scientific American

and here is the in-depth non-pap paper: A freeze-thaw molten salt battery for seasonal storage


If there's trouble reading the links due to paywalls, use this plugin, it bypasses petty much everything: magnolia1234 / Bypass Paywalls Chrome Clean * GitLab

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Sprenkle envisions something like tractor-trailer truck containers with massive batteries inside, parked next to wind farms or solar arrays. The batteries would be charged on-site, allowed to cool and driven to facilities called substations, where the energy could be distributed through power lines as needed.

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I thought this was an interesting synopsis of the current state of play for the EV market.

The final barrier stopping Australians from embracing EVs is information (thenewdaily.com.au)

In brief, it outlines the take up of EVs in Oz compared to the rest of the world, the number of vehicles sold as a percentage of total sales, the typical ranges on a charge, the incentives offered by individual states and number of models available amongst other information.

Interestingly Tesla sold about 80% of the EVs. That points to EVs being more affordable at the up market end of the spectrum.

One aspect troubled me and that is the tendency, primarily, for owners to charge their vehicles at night. This really nullifies the benefit of EVs as solar generation is out of the equation and wind may be minimal. Some incentive should be made to charge during the day on an "off-peak" type of arrangement similar to water heaters and pool pumps. However, the "off-peak" period now has to be moved to daytime, if it has not already been implemented.

Regards
Paul

EV's all tend to be at the top end of the market because there is more margin in the car for the manufacturer to help recoup costs. The OEM's are being forced into making the change to electric via legislation which is hugely punitive and would send the average company broke in short order if they don't meet the emission/sales targets set for the major European markets. What is going to be supplied to the rest of the world is yet to be made clear and that is possibly where the Japanese see an opportunity because there is a lot of this world that cannot support the cars that will be made for the European market after 2030.

Just got an email from my provider telling me that my usage charges are going up 27% in two week’s time. Why does that say about the future of the market? My daughter got a similar email from her provider - up 22%. They have reduced the daily access charge by 10 cents…. Very generous. How will people manage such major price hikes? Are other forum members seeing this from their providers?

cheers,

ajw

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Originally Posted by Chris Parks

EV's [at least currently manufactured ones] all tend to be at the top end of the market because there is more margin in the car for the manufacturer to help recoup costs. The OEM's are being forced into making the change to electric via legislation which is hugely punitive and would send the average company broke in short order if they don't meet the emission/sales targets set for the major European markets. What is going to be supplied to the rest of the world is yet to be made clear and that is possibly where the Japanese see an opportunity because there is a lot of this world that cannot support the cars that will be made for the European market after 2030.

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I'm not so sure about this conclusion.

Many ICE cars only travel to and from childcare, school, the shops or train station each day. (The average Australian car travels less than 40km per day, corresponding to a journey radius of less than 20 km.)
However, after considering that the "average" Sydney household generates around 8 trips per day -- Sydney is the city I am most familiar with -- if one pair of trips is associated with one person travelling to and from work, the other 6 trips are associated with the other household member making an average journey with a radius of about 5 km.

These sorts of short journeys really only require that a vehicle be able to carry the daily/weekly shopping and/or a few passengers, that the vehicle occupants be protected from the weather (heat, cold, rain), and arrive at their destination neither sweating nor out of breath.

Given that e-bikes and electric scooters are only beginning to penetrate the market, how likely is it that these sorts of small battery electric vehicles will, in time, come to dominate -- at least in terms of numbers -- the Australian market by 2030?

Of course, after heavy goods vehicles (greater than 20 tonnes), medium goods vehicles (10 to 20 tonnes), light commercial vehicles (4.5 to 10 tonnes), there will always be a place for the larger, greater range electric cars (and SUVs), but I don't think that the typical low mileage electric vehicle needs the sort of daily range that is not currently available with a pedal assisted E-bike (e-bikes are currently exempt from registration fees, are road tax exempt, and can use bike lanes!) or e-scooter.

I'm currently thinking that the "typical" daily commuter vehicle might evolve into a form of short range e-scooter -- with the larger longer range BEV reserved for weekend journeys and other longer trips.

The down side of this transport "transition" will be that there will be many fewer plug-in battery pack EVs (standard model 3 Tesla's come with a 50kWh battery) to provide load balancing to the grid after the sun stops shining. This is the exact opposite of what is currently being assumed by the electricity grid managers.

We live in South Perth (on the opposite side of the Swan river to the CBD) and walk the dogs on the South Perth foreshore anytime between 6 and 10 am. Over the last couple of months as Covid restrictions have been lifted were seeing more cars free-parked in the streets and people walking into the city, or using bikes, e-bikes or e-scooters - it's only ~5km to the middle of the CBD via the narrows or Causeway bridges . I stopped to talk to a 20 something e-scooter commuter getting his scooter out of huis car - he said he lives 30km from the CBD and where he parks on the foreshore is only about 3km from his office. He said he can bring his scooter into his office (whereas he's not permitted to bring a bike/e-bike in) and he can charge the battery at the office. Interesting arrangement, OK his 3km e-scooter commute won't last too long - South Perth council are increasingly installing ticketed or timed parking right across the foreshore but all he has to do is park a bit further out.

Apparently they have only been legal in Perth since December 2021 (or maybe <10kph was ok before then). You can still only ride them on private property in NSW regardless of their power or speed, but I guess that will change.

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Apparently they have only been legal in Perth since December 2021 (or maybe <10kph was ok before then). You can still only ride them on private property in NSW regardless of their power or speed, but I guess that will change.

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E-Scooters are ubiquitous in Brisbane including models just parked up ready for hire in the street. In the parks there is an issue, to my mind, with scooters and pedestrians sharing the same footpaths. As a pedestrian you need to most watchful before changing direction!

Regards
Paul

I should clarify what I wrote, by saying that BEV's are at the top end of the market I mean that the initial push will be in that sector and as the 2030 date approaches we will see a large move by the OEM's into the lower priced end where the margins are much thinner. The automotive industry is going to cop a huge cold bath as its after sales serving and repairs income is severely reduced but they have not woken up to that in Oz.

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Originally Posted by ian

I'm currently thinking that the "typical" daily commuter vehicle might evolve into a form of short range e-scooter -- with the larger longer range BEV reserved for weekend journeys and other longer trips.

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It will take a huge change of mind to convince the car buyer of that. Mazda have released a limited range vehicle as you have described and they can't give them away because everyone sees the range and says no thanks. With Sydney expanding this is becoming a problem for those living on the outer fringes such as myself. A Mazda would be marginal for me to travel to my old place of work and it is so highly priced I could buy a Tesla 3 and hardly notice the difference. Mind you the Mazda is built many times better than the Tesla and having been in both of them I much prefer the Mazda. Elon's QC is abysmal and he does not care because he can sell every vehicle Tesla make. Mazda in the US are trying to get around the short range issue by offering a free ICE car to every buyer for longer trips for limited times a year.

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Originally Posted by Chris Parks

Mazda in the US are trying to get around the short range issue by offering a free ICE car to every buyer for longer trips for limited times a year.

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This is INCREDIBLY smart.

When I was in Sydney I was bopped from behind coming down onto the Spit bridge from Warringa (the left corner with that hideous blind street). Car was in the shop for a bit.

The insurance company (QBE!) gave me a stipend to use for a rental. Being a Holden driver (tall and chonkii!) SWMBO rang them and asked what they could do. They gave me a brand new car off the lot for something like $43 a day.

I was amazed.

Soon after, we travelled to Tassie. Same deal. Holden we more than happy to rent us a car. So we flew down. It was a hell of a lot cheaper than the rental companies. They did say there should be an upper limit on kms though, but it wasn't unreasonable, more than enough for a travelling holiday for a couple of weeks. I don't recall the cost, but it must have been cheaper than taking our own down.

The arrangement struck me as blindingly obvious.

It was clearly the future of car "ownership".

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Originally Posted by BobL

We live in South Perth (on the opposite side of the Swan river to the CBD) and walk the dogs on the South Perth foreshore anytime between 6 and 10 am. Over the last couple of months as Covid restrictions have been lifted were seeing more cars free-parked in the streets and people walking into the city, or using bikes, e-bikes or e-scooters - it's only ~5km to the middle of the CBD via the narrows or Causeway bridges . I stopped to talk to a 20 something e-scooter commuter getting his scooter out of huis car - he said he lives 30km from the CBD and where he parks on the foreshore is only about 3km from his office. He said he can bring his scooter into his office (whereas he's not permitted to bring a bike/e-bike in) and he can charge the battery at the office. Interesting arrangement, OK his 3km e-scooter commute won't last too long - South Perth council are increasingly installing ticketed or timed parking right across the foreshore but all he has to do is park a bit further out.

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VERY smart.

This is apparently a thing here in Canberra too.

Parking here is a bit contentious. People see it as a country town and the idea of paying for parking is an obscenity.

Canberrans, being sometimes irrationally tight, will park in the 'burbs and do exactly this... the use eScooters. They are everywhere.

There is even a plan where the scooters are leased (via a boop-creditcard) and left all over the place (there is a bit of bruhaha about the mess).... but the idea is that people who wish to get from one side of the city centre to the other just grab a scooter and off they go. Apparently the system works very well.

The region where I live (a new town centre) has a HUGE uptake of electric bikes, scooters, eTrail-bikes and some weird mono-wheel like skateboards. All the school kids fly past each morning screeching in delight. They certainly go a hell of a lot faster than 10km! I'd recon some are 40 to 60... no doubt they've been souped up somewhat.....

hehe. Look at this thing....

1000 watt motors, 35km distance and 50km/h... kogan.com

It would be excellent fun.

Battery minibikes, scooters and motorcycle like things are certainly part of the future.

Attachment 511434

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Originally Posted by ajw

Just got an email from my provider telling me that my usage charges are going up 27% in two week’s time. Why does that say about the future of the market? ... -

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It tells me that your retailer is increasing the prices because he thinks that you will pay it; there is no alternative.

Interestingly, the Australian Energy Regulator collects and collates the wholesale price of electricity in the eastern states grid. For the quarter ended 31 March 2022 with prices quoted in $’s per megawatt hour:

• · In NSW the contract price varied between $76 and $95.25 averaging $84.43, which is substantially lower than the average price in the same quarter in 2019 ($107.59),
• · Queensland contract prices were substantially higher than NSW,
• · Victoria and South Australia contract prices were significantly lower than NSW,
• · Tasmanian contract prices are not released publically as there is only one significant producer,
• · The average spot price for NSW was $89 which was essentially the same as in 2017,
• · Only Queensland was higher at an incredible $171,

Daily Q1 base contract prices and traded volumes - New South Wales | Australian Energy Regulator
https://www.aer.gov.au/wholesale-markets/wholesale-statistics/quarterly-volume-weighted-average-spot-prices-regions

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Originally Posted by woodPixel

... The region where I live (a new town centre) has a HUGE uptake of electric bikes, scooters, eTrail-bikes and some weird mono-wheel like skateboards. All the school kids fly past each morning screeching in delight. They certainly go a hell of a lot faster than 10km! I'd recon some are 40 to 60... no doubt they've been souped up somewhat.....

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Same here, e-scooters everywhere and they seem a lot of fun.

Only serious bitch that I have heard is from a neighbour who uses both manual and motorised wheelchairs:

• "how do you move an abandoned scooter out of the way, from the seat of a whheelchair?"
• "With 15 years wheelchair experience, I am legally limitted to 8 kmh everywhere, but inexperienced scooterists can do 50."
• The default speed limit in Tasmania is 50 kmh unless therwise posted,
• We live in a heritage suburb with a posted speed limit of 40 kmh,
• But that limit is not posted on footpaths, so the default speed limit there is 50 kmh.
• cyclists appear to exceed that limit!

Graeme's general post (#552) and links prompted me to comment that the QLD market at the moment is ballistic as far as the spot price is concerned. The following shot is of the overall market on the East coast and shows how little solar is in play (presumably because of cloud cover):

Attachment 511443

Bear in mind the above is just a snapshot.

I think the second quarter of 2022 will show very different spot prices, which certainly appear to have increased significantly. I don't think I am being mischievous when I say it is because storage has not kept up with solar installation and thermal power has decreased slightly because of unavailability. Autumn is traditionally a period of low demand and consequently low prices. That is not at all what we are seeing.

This is a price snapshot (I think Tassie was $253 at the same period, but did not fit on my snapshot)

Attachment 511444

Bear in mind that earlier in the day prices were a lot higher. The QLD price converted to KW/hr would be 31c: This is the wholesale price and probably more than most people are paying at the retail level.



Regards
Paul

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Originally Posted by woodPixel

hehe. Look at this thing....

1000 watt motors, 35km distance and 50km/h... kogan.com

It would be excellent fun.

Attachment 511434

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You're right, it would be excellent fun, and I covet one (never had a scooter as a kid :no:). However, the max load is 100kg, so that prolly rules out anyone tall and chonki, and rules me out if I buy more than about 5-6kg of food. Although I suppose I could go naked and save another 2 kg), but think of the gravel rash...

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Although I suppose I could go naked and save another 2 kg), but think of the gravel rash...

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and the old ladies having a heart attack....or a stroke :wink:

Regards
Paul

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Originally Posted by Bushmiller

and the old ladies having a heart attack....or a stroke :wink:

Regards
Paul

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I can't see why a scooter would scare them?

This morning as part of the dogs walk we walked for about 1km alongside the main southern freeway immediately south of the Narrows bridge. I haven't walked this path at commuter time for 4-5 years, anyway I counted 22 pedal bikes, 3 e-bikes and 7 e-scooters heading north into the city, and 3 pedal bikes heading south.

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Originally Posted by ajw

Just got an email from my provider telling me that my usage charges are going up 27% in two week’s time. Why does that say about the future of the market? My daughter got a similar email from her provider - up 22%. They have reduced the daily access charge by 10 cents…. Very generous. How will people manage such major price hikes? Are other forum members seeing this from their providers?

cheers,

ajw

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NSW prices have been hovering between $200 and $300 on the spot price for the last few weeks. the retailers aren't going to pay those prices them selfs.

time to vote in/out the policy makers

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Originally Posted by havabeer69

NSW prices have been hovering between $200 and $300 on the spot price for the last few weeks. the retailers aren't going to pay those prices them selfs. ...

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Not quite as dire as the spot market indicates. Base load power (c.80%) is bought on contracts which are far less volatile. Here's a source of spot prices:
AEMO | NEM data dashboard
As you can see, the spot price in NSW today fluctuated between $250.84 and $503.59 per mwh.

For Tasmania, today's spot price fluctuated between $225.42 and $995.94 per mwh. It can be very volatile!

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... time to vote in/out the policy makers ...

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The Ukrainians voted for a commedian and elected a leader. Will we vote for some politicians .... and elect a bunch of commedians?