Future of the Australian Electricity Market

You may have heard that there were some significant events in Vic. On the 14th Feb. Apart from a pretty serious fire, a storm hit much of the state. Some of the casualties included 5 or 6 hv transmission towers near Geelong. When they went down, 2 500kv lines to the Latrobe Valley tripped, followed by all 4 units at loy yang A. As a result, power prices peaked at $16k/Mhw. And stayed there for about 4 hours...
My Amber tarrif is attached.. Attachment 535518

As I was watching I was able to switch from charging battery to exporting and managed to earn a few dollars as well as supporting the grid.:U


What I don't understand is why only loy yang a tripped. I believe aemo did a fair bit of load shedding. ( as did the storm itself, with up to 500k households off grid, including 20k or so still off.)

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Originally Posted by Warb

I saw an ad for an EV yesterday on the TV, and I'm sure I heard an engine sound when the "sporty" version was on the screen.

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I've heard that for those who must have engine noise there are things available to provide that. I just hope that they are only audible within the vehicle itself.

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Originally Posted by Warb

There are additional issues that worry people, me included. Firstly, and this also applies to some modern ICE cars, what is the longevity of these machines? It costs a lot to buy one, but at what point does it become worthless, or at least start to require big $ spends to keep it on the road?
I have read that in the US, an EV drops 60% of its value in the first three years.

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EVs are far simpler than ICEVs and there is not much servicing required. Who knows whether or not they will last longer, but I'm sure that they could be made to last longer. However, it is important to remember that we are in a huge state of transition that has only recently begun, and as that progresses the current EVs for sale are going to be replaced by more mature versions. Hence why at the moment the value plummets in the first 3 years – I believe that should be expected, particularly as new battery tech emerges, because everyone wants the latest battery tech. Tesla are apparently offering (for vehicles purchased in 2023) to swap out the batteries for their new-tech "game changing" batteries that they claim will be available in 2024.

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Originally Posted by Warb

On the other hand, I do like the EV mode on my wife's hybrid - you can sneak up on people in carparks!

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It occurred to me quite some time ago that people who are hard of hearing are going to have the bejesus frightened out of them by close range EVs that "suddenly" appear behind them, particularly at <30kmh when there is hardly any road noise. All pedestrians are going to have to be far more vigilant. Depending upon pedestrians' reactions to EVs as they become more prevalent, it wouldn't surprise me to see a compulsory low speed noise emission somehow incorporated – perhaps when the car knows it is in a <=50 kph zone, and if it detects that there are mammals around. Think of undercover carparks – ICEVs are easy to hear at 5 kph or indeed motionless idling, but an EV is damn near impossible even at 20 kph (apart from possible tyre squeal on smooth concrete).

Sporty Hyundai 5N EV pipes simulated engine sounds into the cabin, but also does 0-100 in 3.8 seconds :oo:

There is no compulsory reuqirement for low speed pedestrian warning sound in Australia YET, but I've heard that this may be coming. My BYD Atto 3 already emits a droning sound through external speaker at low speed, which at least wakes up the people ambling along in front of it gawking at their mobile phone....

Checkout the first few minutes of this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L10GF-vBwqs

It even has simulated paddle gear changes...even though the car itself has no gearbox, just a reduction gear.

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

I've heard that for those who must have engine noise there are things available to provide that. I just hope that they are only audible within the vehicle itself.

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Some EVs have external speakers and a variety of user selectable modes/sounds dependent on speed and directions. From a V12, high speed turbine, farts, or a for reversing, a forklift type Beep, Beep, Beep. On Tesla's lower end models, external sounds were only available as an add on accessory "Boom Box" but last time I looked on were no longer available although I believe the wiring is still in there for an external speaker. As far as I know it's also no longer in the software but would be a doddle for it to be reinstated with a software update.

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EVs are far simpler than ICEVs and there is not much servicing required. Who knows whether or not they will last longer, but I'm sure that they could be made to last longer. However, it is important to remember that we are in a huge state of transition that has only recently begun, and as that progresses the current EVs for sale are going to be replaced by more mature versions. Hence why at the moment the value plummets in the first 3 years – I believe that should be expected, particularly as new battery tech emerges, because everyone wants the latest battery tech. Tesla are apparently offering (for vehicles purchased in 2023) to swap out the batteries for their new-tech "game changing" batteries that they claim will be available in 2024.

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To be more specific, it's the drive train that is simpler in that it has fewer parts, and far fewer parts that need servicing. in terms of electronics and software EVs are considered more complicated.

From a previous post

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A German Taxi driver has driven a 2014 Tesla model S for more 1.6 million km [EDIT by now its almost 2 million].
During this time he has had the battery replaced twice. Once at 290,000 km under warranty, and once at about 1,000,000 km
He had the single electric drive motor replaced 3 times by 680,000 km when known motor faults were being worked on, and a fourth one at 1,000,000.
Replacing a EVs motor is also quite a bit easier than most ICE motors
Multi motor units put less load on each motor so should fare even better.

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The lack of noise issue makes me pay much more attention than I would driving an ICE car.

At home I almost always back my car into my drive/carport so that I exit my driveway forwards so I can see if any pedestrians are walking on the footpath. I also a tend to reverse into parking spaces as my Tesla's has 3 rear facing cameras (it has a total of 8 camera) provide an excellent 270º view of the rear (even at night) and are auto shown on the drivers screen when reverse is engaged. There are 3 fwd facing cameras but they are located almost in the same plane as the driver and are not automatically shown on the drivers screen when moving fwd. What is really needed is a camera right at the front of the vehicle such as the Cybertruck has. This would also show a driver what is below the drivers line of vision over the bonnet when moving at say <20km/h. Most newer including mine use ultra sonic sensors for this short range stuff but I don't think that's as useful as a camera.

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Originally Posted by Mr Brush

My BYD Atto 3 already emits a droning sound through external speaker at low speed, which at least wakes up the people ambling along in front of it gawking at their mobile phone....

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Perhaps they could attach a microphone to this: "HEY! EYES UP!". :D

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Originally Posted by BobL

From a V12, high speed turbine, farts, or a for reversing, a forklift type Beep, Beep, Beep.

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It might be more appropriate to have a the sound of a Wankel Rotary engine.

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Originally Posted by BobL

To be more specific, it's the drive train that is simpler in that it has fewer parts, and far fewer parts that need servicing. in terms of electronics and software EVs are considered more complicated.

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Yes, I should have specified that I meant the drivetrain.

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Originally Posted by BobL

Tesla's has 3 rear facing cameras (it has a total of 8 camera) provide an excellent 270º view of the rear (even at night) and are auto shown on the drivers screen when reverse is engaged.
What is really needed is a camera right at the front of the vehicle such as the Cybertruck has. This would also show a driver what is below the drivers line of vision over the bonnet when moving at say <20km/h. Most newer including mine use ultra sonic sensors for this short range stuff but I don't think that's as useful as a camera.

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The current Mazda 3 (in at least the Astina model) gives bird's eye view of the whole car and surroundings when required – it's excellent for parking and reversing. It looks like there is a camera 5m above the car. It can be called up at will but there is probably a maximum speed to allow this.

Agreed re front camera view. Actually, both cameras and ultrasonic sensors are required (for when the driver is not watching the screen).

I won't be really happy until I can have this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NgSZ8sjDgU

It would be fairly easy to implement on a phone app, playing on internal car speakers via Android Auto. Leave windows slightly open so the outside world can benefit? The app could vary the tone of the sound according to speed using GPS vehicle speed data from the phone.

Even better......WHERE'S MY PERSONAL JETPACK ????

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Originally Posted by Mr Brush

There is no compulsory requirement for low speed pedestrian warning sound in Australia YET, but I've heard that this may be coming.

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The lack of audible sound, apart from road tyre noise, from a BEV or Fuel cell vehicle was an emerging issue when I left NSW government employment 9 years ago and BEVs were as common as hen's teeth.

Now that BEV's represent a significant and growing number of registered vehicles, the issue is becoming critical -- especially for those who are visually impaired.

Personally I support the requirement that all BEVs and fuel cell vehicles emit an auditory warning at all speeds.

So do I - which is why I left the low speed sound generator on my BYD enabled. Ironically, in a recent OTA software update, BYD made it possible for users to turn the pedestrian warning sound OFF........presumably because it isn't yet compulsory. Even before that, some BYD owners were unplugging the speaker to kill the warning sound. Self-entitlement is alive and well in the EV community it seems, with no consideration for others at all.

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

The current Mazda 3 (in at least the Astina model) gives bird's eye view of the whole car and surroundings when required – it's excellent for parking and reversing. It looks like there is a camera 5m above the car. It can be called up at will but there is probably a maximum speed to allow this.

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The Rav4 has a similar system, it's very useful but also relates to what I was saying about the life of these modern vehicles (EV or ICE). The front camera on the Rav4 is very exposed to stone chips, birdstrike etc. My wife collected a stone on hers, and Toyota quoted nearly $1500 to replace it. Whilst it might be possible to find/bodge an aftermarket replacement, that would be beyond the skills of many, assuming that Toyota haven't hard-coded a recognition code into it to make sure only genuine parts are used. It doesn't take too many specialised parts failures to render a modern car uneconomical to keep on the road, or to reduce its resale value dramatically.

You get 5 or so years of warranty, which doesn't cover "damage" (i.e. a busted camera!), and after that you're on your own. Those computers, sensors, touchscreen control systems etc. don't come cheap! How long will they last when left in the Australian sun?

On a related note, I was talking to a mechanic the other day (a "factory" trained and employed guy). We were discussing the touchscreen controls in modern vehicles. Apparently they have/had an issue where the control systems would shut down when they got too hot, much like an iPhone that has been left in the sun. This caused dramas in QLD because people had their sunroof open, overheated the controls, and were then faced with a sudden rainstorm - with the control system locked due to being overly hot, and therefore unable to close the sunroof.......

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Originally Posted by Warb

Apparently they have/had an issue where the control systems would shut down when they got too hot ... This caused dramas in QLD because people had their sunroof open, overheated the controls, and were then faced with a sudden rainstorm - with the control system locked due to being overly hot, and therefore unable to close the sunroof.......

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Sounds like a very efficient cooling system.

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Originally Posted by Warb

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Originally Posted by GraemeCook

But we might seem an entirely different solution. Long distance haulage might revert to ships and trains which are cost effective when they do not have to compete with heavily subsidised semis.

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I've always thought that a return to trains for long distance work would be the best solution, but there's so much money tied up in the haulage industry that it's another issue where there would be a lot of resistance to change on that scale.

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Warb,
I'm pretty sure that the Sydney-Melbourne rail line doesn't have the capacity to handle the volume of freight this would entail. I do know that the current [Sydney-Melbourne] rail connection struggles with achieving a 20% mode share -- and that mode share was based on pre-2005 freight volumes. Given that, prior to Covid, the volume of interstate freight was growing at about 1.05 x GDP, the daily interstate road volumes are [in 2024] probably sitting at around 150 to 200,000 tonnes per day. Placing all that freight on rail, plus that is already carried by rail, would equate to about 210,000 tonnes per day.

Note that back in about 2005 interstate [SYD-MLB] road volumes were sitting at about 110,000 tonnes per average weekday, with Thursday nights being the largest volume day.

At an average of 25 tonnes per rail waggon -- freight being mostly volume, not mass, limited -- 210,000 tonnes would require around 8,400 rail cars. The rail passing loops between Sydney and Melbourne are designed for 1500 m long trains -- equivalent to about 70 rail waggons. So you would be looking at around 120 trains per day, concentrated into about 12 [night] hours or around one train every 6 minutes or so. A 1500m long train every 6 minutes is approximately 8x the number of trains that CP rail moves on the single track through Canmore each day.

So at a minimum, the rail line between Sydney and Melbourne would need:
probably 4 tracks between the cities, including straightening the curves between Douglas Park and Junee ;
relief tracks on every grade steeper than about 1.8% -- much of the line between Sydney and Junee has a grade steeper than 1.8%;
re-signalling -- to cater for the more frequent trains;
full electrification

All up the Sydney-Melbourne cost would likely be in excess of AUD $100 Billion -- not counting the costs of the rail-road interchange at either end of the route. And you don't really get the outcome you require (almost all freight on rail) till almost all the budget has been spent and the intermodal terminals in both Sydney and Melbourne constructed.

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Sydney - Brisbane, via the coast, would probably cost four times as much -- say AUD $400 billion or more -- because of the massive amount of reconstruction, tunnelling and line straightening required along much of the route.

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To provide you with a sense of the scale of the infrastructure required each end, below is a picture of the Folkestone road-rail terminal which handles about the same amount of freight that travels the Sydney-Melbourne route. Except that the Folkestone platforms are about half the length of what would be required at the Sydney end of a Syd-Mlb rail link

https://c8.alamy.com/comp/AG6Y7N/aer...one-AG6Y7N.jpg

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Originally Posted by ian

I'm pretty sure that the Sydney-Melbourne rail line doesn't have the capacity to handle the volume of freight this would entail.

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Whilst I have no doubt that everything you have said is correct, have you calculated how much it would cost to replace all the trucks that currently carry that freight with (for example) Tesla semis? The US price is suggested to be US$180,000 each, which if it follows the usual pattern will be doubled by the time it gets to Australia, and I seem to recall they have less load capacity than a standard semi (but I could be wrong) meaning you'd need more than a 1:1 replacement ratio. Then we have to have charging stations, plus the required infrastructure to actually power those charging stations, road maintenance/improvements etc..

The problem is that the more money we plough in to one solution, in this case electric trucks, the harder it is to justify a change to another system further down the line (no pun intended!). I've commented previously on the lack of overall planning of the conversion away from fossil fuels, and this seems to be a case in point.

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Originally Posted by Warb

Whilst I have no doubt that everything you have said is correct, have you calculated how much it would cost to replace all the trucks that currently carry that freight with (for example) Tesla semis? The US price is suggested to be US$180,000 each, which if it follows the usual pattern will be doubled by the time it gets to Australia

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firstly, US spec semis are significantly lighter (around 37 tonnes) than those used in Australia (45.5 tonnes for a 6 axle semi operating on an inter-capital route, and 68 tonnes for a 9 axle B-Double operating on the same routes). The much higher mass allowances in Australia will have a very significant impact on the Tesla semi's "quoted" 500 mile range -- probably requiring as many as 3 battery recharge locations between Sydney and Melbourne, and 4 or 5 between Sydney and Brisbane. The two heaviest volume interstate routes.

at USD $180,000 (including the trailer?) the Tesla is "very cheap" compared to the AUD cost ($485,000, plus "Government charges") of this 2nd hand sleeper cab Kenworth prime mover. (ref Prime Mover Trucks over $400,000 for sale in Australia - trucksales.com.au )
https://trucksales.pxcrush.net/cars/...c_size=720,480

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Originally Posted by Warb

I seem to recall they have less load capacity than a standard semi (but I could be wrong) meaning you'd need more than a 1:1 replacement ratio.

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You are not wrong. The load capacity of a US spec tesla semi is 82,000 lbs, or about 37 tonnes.
The replacement ratio, Tesla semis to B-Doubles, is more like 2:1 -- but to a certain extent who cares?

The core workforce issue is the lack of drivers for the existing ICE truck fleet (which for the eastern inter-capital routes is around 75% B-Doubles). Many of the drivers used to be Vietnam veterans, but with that cohort largely retired replacing them is increasingly difficult.
People generally don't, and really shouldn't be expected to, want to drive overnight between the eastern seaboard capital cities, spending 6 nights per week driving between Sydney and Melbourne or Sydney and Brisbane and trying to sleep in a foreign bed every second day.

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Originally Posted by Warb

Then we have to have ... the required infrastructure to actually power those charging stations, road maintenance/improvements etc.

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any upgrades on the highways -- Hume and Pacific -- between the eastern capitals (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane) would only be to cater for light vehicle volumes -- future HV road maintenance needs for those highways was factored into the initial cost of construction.

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Originally Posted by Warb

The problem is that the more money we plough into one solution, in this case electric trucks, the harder it is to justify a change to another system further down the line (no pun intended!). I've commented previously on the lack of overall planning of the conversion away from fossil fuels, and this seems to be a case in point.

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Hey, I don't disagree with you.

I'm merely pointing out the likely cost involved of the required freight rail upgrades, to which should be added the cost of connecting Brisbane-Sydney-Melbourne-Adelaide with very high speed rail (~ 450km/h) so as to avoid the need for most interstate air travel. From memory the very high speed rail cost is in the order of AUD $500 million per km.

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as a nation we need to decide if we are prepared to spend around 1/10 of our annual GDP every year for the next ten years to upgrade just three of the interstate rail routes. When considering that, be aware that the current tax to GDP ratio is around 25%, and also be aware of the inflationary impact of so much government spending.


Having worked inside government, I remain sceptical. I suspect that the Australian tax paying population is still around 10 years away from being prepared to make that level of commitment to address climate change.