breaking covid rules

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Originally Posted by Bushmiller

The question is why it has developed in Southern Africa (not just South Africa)? One theory is because of the unusually high incidence of HIV (too few facilities to control and insufficient education to warn) and the increased susceptibility of people with that condition. These viruses are most insidious when coupled with people having immuno deficiencies.

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Mutations occur in every species on a constant basis. Some make no real difference, some make it harder for the organism to survive, so those mutations simply die. The ones that give it an advantage survive and multiply. It is possible that the omicron mutation has only occurred in Sothern Africa, and because it is an improvement (from its viewpoint) it has prospered. It is also possible that is has occurred in other places but failed to survive for some reason. As you suggest, it may be that the background levels of HIV have allowed it to prosper, but in that case it would presumably fail to prosper in communities with lower levels of HIV. Time will tell! My suspicion is that it is likely just a better version that has got a foothold and then spread due to the movement of people, much as delta did....

It is worth remembering that even in a global pandemic there are people who are happy to use one situation to push a completely different cause. Just as the politicians are using covid as an excuse to knock their opponents, there are people (and groups) who would use it to push their own agenda. Whilst is is indeed possible that HIV has an impact on the spread of covid, it is also possible that covid it is a useful lever to forward the cause of those looking for funding for HIV treatment in Africa.

As suspected would happen, omicron is now confirmed to be in Australia. Worryingly, and assuming that everyone is telling the truth, two returned travellers have tested positive even though both were fully vaccinated and both were asymptomatic. The pair are now in quarantine, as are the 12 others on the flight that came from the affected country. However there were 260 other people on the plane (presumably it had multiple stops) who have been "ordered to isolate", so based on past performance at least a few of them will be out partying already.... The SMH has also reported that a traveller who has tested positive to covid after travelling to Sydney from one of the omicron affected countries is being investigated as a possible omicron case by Victoria Health, because the person travelled from NSW to Victoria and back.....

The ABC reports:
"On Sunday, NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet said the pandemic wasn't over and living with COVID-19 also meant learning to live with new strains. "We need to learn to live alongside the virus. We also need to live alongside the various strains of the virus that will come our way," Mr Perrottet said."

From the initial reports I've read (from the S. African doctor who identified it in her patients), it appears that, while the Omicron variant may be more virulent i.e. transmissible, it seems to be less severe in its affect. She reports that her adult patients who have the variant complain of fatigue while a child who contracted it had a temperature and rapid pulse rate but recovered within a couple of days.
Pete

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Originally Posted by woodhutt

From the initial reports I've read (from the S. African doctor who identified it in her patients), it appears that, while the Omicron variant may be more virulent i.e. transmissible, it seems to be less severe in its affect. She reports that her adult patients who have the variant complain of fatigue while a child who contracted it had a temperature and rapid pulse rate but recovered within a couple of days.
Pete

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This is the view that I heard being pushed on the radio this morning - "omicron is the strain you WANT running around you population, outcompeting delta" was the statement from Dr. McExpert. Now I can completely understand the logic of that statement, but it would seem to depend on a bunch of other factors and I'm not sure we as yet have all the data. For example, is the belief that omicron causes less damage actually backed up by data? Does omicron trigger the body to produce a long lasting immune response that then infers resistance to delta and the other known variants? If the answer to these two questions is "yes", then happy days! Everyone gets omicron, has a day off work and is then immune to covid. We can but hope!

Further to the above, World Health Organisation latest update (5 hours ago):

Transmissibility: It is not yet clear whether Omicron is more transmissible (e.g., more easily spread from person to person) compared to other variants, including Delta. The number of people testing positive has risen in areas of South Africa affected by this variant, but epidemiologic studies are underway to understand if it is because of Omicron or other factors.


Severity of disease: It is not yet clear whether infection with Omicron causes more severe disease compared to infections with other variants, including Delta. Preliminary data suggests that there are increasing rates of hospitalization in South Africa, but this may be due to increasing overall numbers of people becoming infected, rather than a result of specific infection with Omicron. There is currently no information to suggest that symptoms associated with Omicron are different from those from other variants. Initial reported infections were among university students—younger individuals who tend to have more mild disease—but understanding the level of severity of the Omicron variant will take days to several weeks. All variants of COVID-19, including the Delta variant that is dominant worldwide, can cause severe disease or death, in particular for the most vulnerable people, and thus prevention is always key.